Very quick round of 16 data dump

van Veen/Doets - 49/45/58/51

Searle/Dobey - 40/41/45/42

Joyce/Wattimena - 48/36/37/40

Price/Smith - 60/61/65/62

Wade/Cross - 53/51/51/52

Noppert/Nijman - 48/37/43/43

Heta/Woodhouse - 50/45/48/48

Bunting/Aspinall - 39/33/42/38

Looks like we've got a lot of close ones. Not a huge amount of value that I can see, Nathan maybe being the best. Small bit of rebuilding done yesterday after the clusterfuck that was Friday.

Oh my god that did not just happen. That didn't happen.

That might be the most brutal day I've ever had in terms of punting. Gilding misses a match dart. Burton gets 5-4 up and then Joyce goes into god mode. Menzies, meh, whatever. Barney just did Barney things. Huybrechts FUCKED UP SIX MATCH DARTS IN HIS HOME COUNTRY, this was the worst, I literally after the game just went "hey, let's see how often we can kill 24 in six darts", and I did it 40% of the time, and I'm an amateur that wouldn't take a leg of a Challenge Tour player if you gave me 20 goes. Then Dirk decides to begin and end with legs where he has 21 darts to break and doesn't do it either time. Marvellous. I guess at least the good thing is that we did withdraw the topup we made a bit ago, so as such we didn't lose more than we did? I mean I'm pleased for Bialecki in that he's likely in the Grand Prix now, but jesus, this was a horrific day. Let's rebuild.

Ratajski/Doets - 43/42/42/42

Wattimena/Sedlacek - 48/57/61/55

Schindler/Cross - 40/41/42/41

Noppert/Landman - 76/76/81/78

Searle/Baetens - 62 (only long data on Baetens)

Dobey/Zonneveld - 72/65/62/66

Woodhouse/O'Connor - 65/63/59/62

Smith/de Graaf - 56/55/60/57

Rock/Joyce - 61/67/71/66

Price/Brooks - 69/74/75/73

Wade/Long - 84/86/76/82

van Veen/Clemens - 67/68/76/70

van Gerwen/Heta - 51/56/60/56

Aspinall/Springer - 74/71/69/71

Bunting/Dolan - 77/73/74/75

Nijman/Bialecki - 66/73/73/71

ET13 round one

Been a brutal week for withdrawals from the World Series Finals, making one of the most irrelevant events on the calendar even more useless, but that's a next week problem (and not for me, no ranking no care) so let's pile into the round one games, the quali has started nice and early and Dimitri's already fucked up his home nation qualifier wildcard (yeah running into Baetens isn't nice but it's still a cheap trick to try to pull, at least de Decker looks like he'll get there). Bye bye tour card probably. Here we go:

Zonneveld/Tous - no data on Tous

Mansell/Brooks - 40/46/46/44

Gilding/Landman - 64/68/71/68

Doets/Hurrell - 76/67/63/69

Sedlacek/Hansen - no data on Hansen

de Graaf/HNQ3 - 

Joyce/Burton - 51/47/48/49

Springer/HNQ1 - 

Cross/Reyes - 65/63/57/62

Cullen/HNQ4 - 

Menzies/Clemens - 73/67/67/69

O'Connor/HNQ2 - 

van Barneveld/Long - 67/66/58/64

Heta/Greaves - 52/54/54/53

Bialecki/Huybrechts - 36/33/36/35

van Duijvenbode/Dolan - 71/78/75/75

It has been stated already, but that is an absolutely brutal draw for Reyes. not only does he get one of the hardest seeds available, but Huybrechts getting into the event as a result of four players crying off and drawing Bialecki removes all the permutations of him losing and still making the Grand Prix. One of Bialecki/Huybrechts will overtake him for the last spot so he must beat Cross and then pray. Schindler in round two is at least nice if he still has work to do after that. That said, Sedlacek, although he's going to need a pretty deep run, can't really ask for a nicer draw.

I'll update when the qualifier is done. It shouldn't be too long (they've done 5/8 of the last sixteen already as I type) but I'm AFK for a little bit this afternoon. Looking at the names it's probably de Decker against Springer and Baetens against Cullen (that should be fun) with the rest not having the data to be able to give a projection. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Edit - de Decker hilariously lost so the only HNQ game we have data on is Cullen/Baetens, and that's only long data which leans 51/49 in favour of Andy. Of the other qualifiers, Lankhuizen does show up in my database for one CT quarter about 18 months ago where he was murdered by Ted Evetts, last couple of quali rounds were OK I guess. Caron I only have a 6-0 loss to Clemens in a Euro Tour 2+ years ago but that's it, was a bit better in the quali at least. Jacobs I have nothing. Did scrape over 80 in one quali game but nothing else before being helped by de Decker going at a 93 clip. For the other regional qualifiers I have nothing on either, in the quali Tous got past 85 once, mainly due to a 3-4 leg spell of sunrunning, while Hansen had an alright semi but that was it in a qualifier which only had 16 runners. Yikes.

ET12 quarters

Time to quickly throw this up before the Arsenal game, got away with a big one in the Noppert game for sure:

Price/Smith - 57/60/65/61

O'Connor/Humphries - 28/26/24/26

Clayton/van Gerwen - 57/46/45/49

Noppert/Littler - 16/17/19/17

Couple of games that might be good there. Then a couple of games that don't rate as interesting at all. If Humphries goes through, then it'd be too close to call against Price (and hence around about the same if it was against Smith), while Littler/Clayton would be around the 80/20 mark (assuming the same if it was MvG given how close that quarter is overall, but periodic data might swing it one way or the other ever so slightly).

And if we do get the "dream final" (which we've seen a dozen times this season already), it's probably about 70/30 in favour of Littler. Humphries would be more of a 2-1 shot in longer data, but the most recent form (which is basically Littler crushing the Matchplay and not that much else) is that favourable to the younger Luke that it moves the needle enough that it's smack bang in between 2-1 and 3-1 over the weighted averages.

ET12 round 3

This is another short notice one I know, but long day at the football yesterday. Hopefully next week will be less flustered as I'm at a local home game, but let's just jump straight into the last sixteen. Saturday started out well with decent pick ups on Noppert and Menzies, but then pretty much entirely went to shit. Rock won so we did at least broke even with the many losing bets primarily being minimum plays, but none of the others outside of maybe Bunting were really close.

Price/Menzies - 62/66/71/66

van Veen/Smith - 38/44/58/47

Rock/O'Connor - 55/57/63/58

Humphries/Gilding - 66/76/77/73

Clayton/Barry - 69/62/69/67

van Gerwen/Nijman - 42/44/48/45

Woodhouse/Noppert - 47/57/50/51

Littler/Ratajski - 91/83/85/86

Really not seeing much of value there, except Littler might be oddly undervalued.

ET12 round two

Yikes, that was not nice. Huybrechts missing a match dart, Scutt blowing a 4-2 lead, and then Dirk doing Dirk things, not pretty. Could have been worse for sure, but not really what I was hoping to see. Anyway, let's jump into round two and I don't have a lot of time to do it:

Jermaine Wattimena v Krzysztof Ratajski - 41/50/51/47

Ryan Searle v William O'Connor - 65/60/63/63

Danny Noppert v Kevin Doets - 54/43/48/48

Gary Anderson v Cameron Menzies - 51/68/68/62

Chris Dobey v Keane Barry - 70/70/74/71

Ross Smith v Stephen Burton - 79/71/73/74

Nathan Aspinall v Andrew Gilding - 76/75/70/74

Wessel Nijman v Martin Schindler - 63/66/68/66

Gian van Veen v Jeffrey de Graaf - 45/49/68/54

Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta - 56/51/53/53

Gerwyn Price v Callan Rydz - 51/68/70/63

Luke Littler v Niko Springer - 88/84/85/86

Luke Humphries v Beau Greaves - 56/71/74/67

Michael van Gerwen v Mario Vandenbogaerde - 70/75/76/74

Josh Rock v Ryan Joyce - 62/68/72/67

Stephen Bunting v Luke Woodhouse - 61/45/55/54

Let's rebuild!

ET12 round one

I'll hold on a FRH update until after ET13 I think, as that is the Grand Prix cutoff. Not that those two things are in any way related, it just seems like a more natural place to do it. Anyway, the draw dropped fairly recently, we do have the draw for the quali out and it looks like Sedlacek would be HNQ1 and Gawlas HNQ3 if they do get through things, so I'll do provisional projections for them. Nobody else from Czechia has anywhere near the legs needed, neither does Homola who won the Eastern Europe qualifier (he is in the database, but only for a single Dev Tour quarter run earlier this season). Engstrom has the legs but maybe not for full data sets. Anyway, here we go:

Rydz/Reyes - 72/53/56/60

Menzies/Engstrom - 72 (only full data on Engstrom)

Zonneveld/de Graaf - 35/45/52/44

Cullen/Burton - 66/64/62/64

Joyce/Huybrechts - 28/28/33/30

Gurney/Greaves - 47/44/38/43

Heta/Sedlacek (provisional) - 67/61/65/64

Cross/Barry - 63/64/64/64

van Duijvenbode/Vandenbogaerde - 73/75/74/74

Schindler/Owen - 49/54/51/51

Woodhouse/Scutt - 49/59/56/55

Doets/Evans - 58/65/62/62

Ratajski/Gawlas (provisional) - 60/61/60/60

Note when I say provisional, the numbers aren't going to change (I don't include ET qualifiers in the database, although as the final round is effectively for ranking money, maybe I should include that?), it's only just to saw we are assuming the card holders will come through. If they don't, we have no prediction.