Friday, 9 October 2026

Swiss round two

Wouldn't it be great if Swiss round two meant the second round of a Swiss format tournament. Oh well, we can't have nice things. Punts were a bit of a trainwreck, Menzies chucked away a 3-1 lead, Gilding did the same, Lap missed six darts to throw for the match, and Soutar missed a match dart. Great. Let's jump into round two and see how we do.

Ratajski/Bellmont - 73/85/81/80
Nijman/Sedlacek - 69/68/72/70
Woodhouse/Cross - 39/49/54/47
Schindler/Bissell - 54/51/48/51
Searle/Reyes - 51/54/60/55
R Smith/O'Connor - 72/64/63/66
Dobey/Brooks - 66/69/68/68
Wattimena/M Smith - 79/72/67/73
Rock/Chisnall - 54/61/68/61
Bunting/de Graaf - 57/54/57/56
Wade/van Duijvenbode - 64/58/45/56
Clayton/Kuivenhoven - 78/74/68/73
van Gerwen/Suljovic - 67/70/71/69
Humphries/Doets - 62/65/68/65
van Veen/Springer - 59/58/69/62
Noppert/Heta - 62/55/55/57

Let's go.

Thursday, 8 October 2026

Switzerland round one

OK, penultimate Euro Tour coming up, we have this one in Basel then one next week in Maastricht, and we're done. Fairly big one looking at the Dortmund cutoff, it's going to take some work for those presently outside the cutoff to get anything done, but they've got an outside chance at least. Thankfully it's the last year of this utter bullshit. In terms of qualifiers, Bellmont we know about, Roman Wellinger is a completely new name who performed pretty well in the quali despite zero help from his opponents in terms of averages, Bruno Stoeckli has been here before and has a win at this level, against Dirk, meh, dunno about that, while Fehlmann was also here two years ago but didn't do much of anything. We don't have much of anything on the eastern Europe qualifier, although he's not a new name, while Haavisto we only have long data on, so let's get into what we can get into:

Zonneveld/Brooks - 46/51/57/52
O'Connor/Haavisto - 73 (Only long data on Haavisto)
Bialecki/Sedlacek - 50/48/47/48 (OF COURSE number 34 and 35 in the Euros race get drawn against each other)
Cullen/Bissell - 45/50/49/48
Menzies/Reyes - 63/56/54/58
Cross/Vandenbogaerde - 79/72/68/73
Gilding/Bellmont - 67/81/77/75
de Graaf/Lap - 67/65/66 (No short data on Lap)
Chisnall/Soutar - 53/37/45 (No short data on Soutar)
van Barneveld/Kuivenhoven - 45/44/45/45
Smith/Owen - 35/43/39 (No short data on Smith, but what there is sucks)
Doets/Kenny - 87/83/79/83

Surprising number of card holders who don't have short data, but heck, we just ticked over into a July-September dataset. I mention that specifically with Smith as his short data was really rough, talking 80-20 in favour of Owen. Looking back at what he's done since July, at least on the Pro Tour (he may have been in one or more Euro Tours but I'm just looking at DC), we had:

- 6-4 loss to Lishman averaging 81, then whitewashed by Griffin the day after
- Meh win over Ritchie before a big loss to Pilgrim averaging 76
- Beats Szaganski, looks alright against Crabtree, then steamrollered by Nijman
- Averages 81 in 6-5 loss to Hurrell
- Does alright against Lukeman then wins one leg against Schindler averaging 81 again
- Then most recently 2b2 70 averages. One he gets away with because Marvin Kraft was just as bad, but then only just broke 80 against Dirk, but the other he didn't win a leg against Bialecki, and the 76 average there wasn't brought down by bad doubling - he wasn't on a double once.

Yikes. Meanwhile in other news Matt Edgar has a seemingly short fuse with a very weird reaction to comment that his latest Youtube vid which had no need to be made was basically the entire length of the video too long. I mean the literal title is "should young player be allowed to play in youth championship". If that needs more than a one second response, then good lord.

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Final

So we have the number 2 in the world based on scoring over the last twelve months at 96.53, against the number 3 in the world at 96.29. That for me will make for a more exciting final than if we had the guy that's over 99 - yes it might have ended up being good anyway, and if we were to have had somewhat of a repeat of Littler/Price from last year (not that, given the bracket, that was possible) I don't think anyone would have said no, but an evenly matched duel between two elite players is good stuff. Over the full data this rates 52% Humphries. Over just the last six+ months it's 56% Humphries, but then over the last three+ months it's 66% Price, which gives a weighted average of 53-47 in favour of the Iceman. This kind of makes sense if you look at a rolling average graphic I have. I won't repeat it here, but it shows Luke steadily ahead on a past 60 days set, with a bit of a spell for Price in between the UK Open and Matchplay, before Humphries jumps ahead nicely. However, Price takes the lead back from around the start of September (i.e. starting from samples which include something like all of July/August and rolling onwards) and doesn't relinquish it from there. What does this show? Is Humphries the better player? Yes. Is it by much? No. Is Price playing better darts right now? Maybe. Who's playing the better darts in this tournament? Probably Humphries.

Frankly this Dev Tour race is more interesting. As it's the one before the (youth) worlds we've got a lot more of a varied lineup than usual - nobody from far flung places has done a great deal yet, but it's always good to see. Obviously Bialecki has the Slam spot by miles, but the races for cards and (senior) worlds spots are super tight and could go any number of ways, although if someone like van den Herik/Beeton/Self goes on a tear in the next couple of hours they can make a very strong claim for both.

I'll just do updated FRH rankings now.

1 Luke Littler
2 Gian van Veen
3 WHOEVER WINS THE FINAL
4 WHOEVER LOSES THE FINAL (up one/down one if Price wins, unchanged otherwise)
5 James Wade (UP 1)
6 Wessel Nijman (DOWN 1)
7 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)
8 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
9 Ross Smith (UP 1)
10 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
11 Josh Rock (DOWN 1)
12 Nathan Aspinall (UP 3)
13 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
14 Luke Woodhouse (DOWN 1)
15 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)
16 Jermaine Wattimena (UP 2)
17 Stephen Bunting
18 Krzysztof Ratajski (DOWN 2)
19 Michael van Gerwen
20 Dirk van Duijvenbode (NEW)

Joyce is now up to 24, Zonneveld to 28. That's your lot for today.

Friday, 2 October 2026

We've got semis on

Real quick as I'll be at a match tomorrow:

Aspinall/Price - 44/51/36/44
Wade/Humphries - 58/36/18/37

That second one is a bit of a surprise, but yeah, Wade is actually outperforming Humphries in winning legs since the start of July. Of course, it's only just and doesn't have an enormous sample for obvious reasons, but it is what it is.

GP quarters

Pretty disastrous second round going 2-4 on bets including losing one big one on Noppert, been a pretty bad tournament full stop but there's still seven games where we might be able to claw something back. Let's see:

Aspinall/Joyce - 88/85/83/85
Price/Clayton - 60/63/74/66
van Veen/Wade - 30/37/62/43
Humphries/Zonneveld - 69/78/77/75

Yikes that disparity in short and long form between van Veen and Wade!

As such, it looks like the only value, and it's huge value, is in laying Joyce, which has gone brilliantly so far...

Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Grand Prix round two

Not the greatest of results, some people underperforming fairly badly, and notably seeing Littler out, which throws things wide open. We're down to sixteen and up to a best of five set run, so let's project things:

Woodhouse/Aspinall - 35/40/38/38
Noppert/Joyce - 80/71/74/75
Price/Smith - 65/65/69/66
Clayton/Nijman - 49/37/39/42
Humphries/Wattimena - 72/73/78/74
Zonneveld/Anderson - 34/27/26/29
van Veen/Searle - 53/49/59/54
Wade/Bunting - 55/60/46/54

Let's go.

Sunday, 27 September 2026

Grand Prix round one

There's been a bit more meat on the bones in relation to the calendar, and boy, choices were made, but that's a problem for future TA Towers and we've got the Grand Prix to project. Now as I mentioned above, I don't actually have a specific setting in the master computer for a best of two sets match. Presumably I thought as that only happens in a double start event where my data doesn't have a direct exact similar computation, let's not bother. But I'll treat this as a best of 11 match. For one, you need to win six legs in this, and for two, a first two three set match (which I do have projected) appears very similar in win chances to a best of 17/19 game in leg play, so it seems close enough. We're only talking a fraction of a percentage difference in any case. As always, I'll give four numbers - the win chance using data from the last three completed months (plus September), then 6+ months, then the last year, and finally an average of the three.

Littler/Woodhouse - 85/78/81/81
Aspinall/Doets - 65/60/59/58
Noppert/Springer - 61/55/62/59
van Gerwen/Joyce - 69/71/74/71
Price/Bialecki - 76/77/82/78
Smith/Menzies - 52/55/56/54
Clayton/Ratajski - 68/55/58/60
Nijman/Cross - 53/57/62/57
Humphries/Chisnall - 70/74/81/75
Dobey/Wattimena - 70/63/63/65
Rock/Zonneveld - 54/54/56/55
Anderson/Heta - 56/67/69/64
van Veen/van Duijvenbode - 50/46/55/50
Searle/O'Connor - 64/60/64/63
Wade/Cullen - 68/58/57/61
Bunting/Gilding - 67/59/63/63

Looks like there might be some value in some places, but I've got Challenge Tour etc to catch up on.