Thursday, 16 September 2021

Bit of a break

Been a while since a post, been busy with other projects, but quickly new FRH rankings:

1 Gerwyn Price
2 Peter Wright
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 James Wade
5 Dimitri van den Bergh
6 Gary Anderson
7 Jose de Sousa
8 Michael Smith (UP 1)
9 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
10 Krzysztof Ratajski
11 Joe Cullen
12 Jonny Clayton
13 Dirk van Duijvenbode
14 Nathan Aspinall
15 Stephen Bunting
16 Devon Petersen
17 Mervyn King
18 Simon Whitlock
19 Daryl Gurney
20 Luke Humphries (NEW)

Grats to Gerwyn for some great darts where it mattered to bink Hungary, Smith's final moves him up to eighth, Humphries' semi pushes him well above White (would have been above with a first round exit, but still), while de Sousa is extremely close to Anderson now and is within striking distance of the top five. A good run in Gib may be enough. Dolan is up to the top 25, while Lewis Williams is in the top 100 for the first time, Gawlas isn't far behind. Adam'll be there after the European Championship for sure.

Scotland won the World Cup. Real feel good story for Hendo, as well as the Austria team, going to be fun seeing them all in the Grand Slam for sure. Some decent games, but there's been some right stinkers as well. They really need to expand the field to 40 and add an extra session for a prelim round to both allow more teams in, as well as to filter out those who we want to see there, but really can't cut it. China and Italy didn't even get darts at a double, let alone win a leg. Can we not expand the field to include a returning New Zealand, Latvia, France (Tricole +1 wouldn't be horrible) and some other emerging nations? At least if you trim off the worst, you don't get horrible mismatches in the last 32. All talk about making it pairs only, I don't know, I'm on record as not being a fan of the format, but for a one-off event like this, I think it'd be fine to do it, although you do miss the backstage shots of the guy who isn't playing in the singles right now.

Can't see decent quality results anywhere immediately for the England Open. Looks like Brian Raman got most of the cake, would be good to see him at Lakeside. Real shame for the WDF that they've had to kick the Masters down the can for another year but with the Netherlands being an idiot country then I don't think they have too much choice.

Won't be watching any of the Nordic Darts Masters. Busy this weekend, not ranked, nothing of real interest. Bring on Gib.

Sunday, 5 September 2021

Any quarter final value?

Probably should have gone for those two marginal shots, oh well

Cullen/Humphries - Nope, nothing here. Line has Joe as a small favourite, this looks spot on.

Dolan/Price - Great win for Brendan earlier, but it doesn't get any easier, Price is nearly a 75% favourite in the market, which is a little bit too short (I've got Dolan at 32%), with the vig in the market we can't consider betting on Brendan though. Maybe if you see him win the bull and you can get on some sort of handicap?

de Sousa/Gawlas - Yeah, probably comes to an end for Adam here, but he's played some really great stuff and if the vig levels off, it's not too far off a speculative tiny punt. Jose didn't play great earlier, or yesterday for that matter, if he's only in second gear and pacing himself then fine.

Wright/Smith - Hope nothing's seriously up with Borland, but we won't speculate. Smith was meh against an equally meh Barry, this looks about 60/40 in favour of Wright on paper, oddschecker has literally just put the line up and it looks to be shaded a bit more in favour of Wright, but nowhere near enough to consider taking Smith.

If we look at semi finals, Price should be about 4/7 against Cullen, 1/2 against Humphries, if Dolan does pull the upset then the semi is going to be extremely close either way. Maybe shade Cullen as 10/11 against evens, the other way around against Humphries. de Sousa against Wright ought to be 4/5 JdS and 5/4 Wright, whereas if Smith were to advance Jose should be 8/15 perhaps? Could be sneaky Jose value. We'll see.

Quick last 16 post

Thanks Adam Gawlas!

Cullen/Cross - Priced fairly even with Cullen having a tiny edge. This seemed fair at a first glance, and is fair looking at the numbers, 52/48 in favour of Cullen.

Wade/Humphries - We've seen this one quite a few times this year and always gone with Luke, who is 11/10, which I think is enough of a line correction not to bet it. Luke should be the tiniest of favourites, but it's even closer than the match above, so there's not the value despite him being odds against.

van Gerwen/Dolan - MvG's pretty short here at a first look, shorter than 2/5. This is quite close to be honest, Dolan is 5/2 which relates to a fair win chance of 29%. I think it's more like 37%, but I'll hold off on pulling the trigger only on account of Michael looking good yesterday, that gives me just enough pause to think he might outperform the model slightly which would remove any value.

Price/Heta - Pretty similarly priced matchup here, I'm not quite sure what that says about Heta in relation to Dolan, or Price in relation to van Gerwen for that matter. This one looks fine though, Price should win this just over two in three.

de Sousa/Aspinall - This is again fairly close to a bet. 4/7 on de Sousa implies about a 64% chance to win, I see it at 70%. There's not quite enough of a combination of the market still not liking de Sousa and still liking Aspinall (who's still fine, just not in the top 25 of scoring this year) to go for the bet though.

Gawlas/Williams - Huge opportunity for both here, line is thinking 60/40 in favour of Lewis. That might be a little unfair on Adam, but not enough to be betting it, should be more like 6/5 instead of 6/4.

Wright/Borland - This one does look priced correctly. Borland's done us good this weekend, and if you ended up taking a flier on Mensur being rusty as well, you got rewarded, but Borland 5/1 appears on the money. I see 19%, that's close enough.

Smith/Barry - Probably a highlight this one as long as Keane shows up. Not for betting though, I see Keane as having a little less than a one in three shot, and he's 9/4, so meh. No thanks.

Should be back for quick quarter thoughts before the football.

Saturday, 4 September 2021

Hungary round 2 bets

We went 2/3 yesterday, although the third one (and the first one to be fair) were a lot closer than they needed to be. Keegan didn't do it, you can't afford to be giving anyone three legs in more than eighteen darts, come on lad.

Today:

0.1u Gawlas 9/2, he looked good yesterday. 96 average, every leg in fifteen darts or less, sure this is a big longshot ask and I'm only seeing him at 25%, but the performance yesterday makes me think he might be able to nick it enough to make this value.

0.1u Hempel 5/1, this is kind of similar, a speculative long shot, I'm seeing Hempel just shy of 30%, so 5/1, what the hell. He's going to need to up his game a lot from yesterday, but clearly can.

That's it. No real value at all. Just a couple of long shots where they seem to be overvaluing the favourites. Don't expect these to work too often, think we end up 0/2 quite a lot of the time, but we only need to hit one to make a solid profit, and it's all about picking players we think win more than the odds suggest.

Friday, 3 September 2021

Hungary bets

Disappointing lack of lead time to pick out bets, I know the draw was a bit later than usual, but they knew the home nation qualifiers in advance so there's no excuse for the bookies. Quickfire round it is:

0.25u Borland 1/2, this seems a bit of value, William's extremely underrated and Johan isn't really that good

0.25u Brown 10/11, only seems like small value given where I think Richard is at, but this is a big event for Veenstra, and maybe he's half thinking of hightailing it to Niedernhausen?

Gawlas seems really close. If you see 7/4 then go for it, I'm only looking at two books because loloddschecker and can't see better than 13/8.

0.25u Hempel 4/9, not quite as close as I'd thought but still enough value to take the bet.

The rest look pretty much on point, disappointing lack of value but there we go.

Thursday, 2 September 2021

Hungary draw thoughts

Feel sad for Noppert, perfectly understandable he's withdrawn, as one of the few players that remain in our Betting Circle of Trust, it's a potential missed opportunity but darts takes a back seat at this sort of time. Hope we see him back for Gibraltar. Also a shame that, given they did the home nations qual in advance, we've got a first round bye to O'Connor, but hey! The European Tour is back! Let's analyse!

Cullen v Nentjes/de Vos - Geert on Geert violence! You love to see it. Seems a pretty close one on paper, Nentjes looks like he has the slight edge, 10/11 for him would appear to be a fair line. Joe's got to be reasonably happy with this draw. If he were to face Nentjes, he'd be an easy 2-1 favourite.

Cross v Strbik/Smith - Rob got the last minute seed callup, and has a particularly tricky opponent - assuming Ross Smith gets through Peter Strbik. We don't know a great deal about Peter, looks to be a Euro Tour debut, no signs of any form anywhere. Got to think Ross cruises through, and from there, it's a dead coin flip.

Wade v O'Connor - Can go straight to round two here. Willie's been a bit quiet this season, but it's a decent opportunity here, nick this one, and it's not unreasonable - Wade's 65/35 - and he's in with a very good shot of getting to a major. James probably thinking this to be a middle of the road draw, sounds about right.

Petersen v Humphries/Razma - Luke probably the strongest player in the first round, so it's a bit unfortunate for Madars to get this draw, especially given the fuck up in communication re: the World Cup "yeah, Latvia are in, oh, wait". Luke a bit stronger than a 2-1 favourite, and he'd be about the same against Devon, so I guess Petersen is hoping for Razma to pull the upset?

van Gerwen v van der Voort/Gurney - Nice looking section here. First round game seems too close to call, seem to have comparable form, and you'd think that both would be treating this as a final. You'll probably get tips to go against MvG in round two, but it's all going to depend on the price. Michael should still win this two times out of three.

Dolan v Soutar/Rucska - Was an interesting interview with Jozsef on the Weekly Dartscast this morning, and he got the draw he wanted. Don't think Alan's quite the same player from when they played previously, and as such should advance easily enough. Dolan in round two should be a great match up, definitely excited to see this one, Brendan ought to have a 60/40 edge there.

Price v Veenstra/Brown - Another exciting debut here, this time for Richard Veenstra, and it's a decent test against Keegan Brown. We've got a bit on Veenstra from the Challenge Tour, pity he has to miss weekend two (maybe if he loses he can dive into events 9-12?), and Keegan probably deserves to be maybe a 60/40 favourite? Price should be extremely comfortable in round two, something like a 4-1 favourite.

Heta v Whitlock/Webster - Boy, this first round match would have been pretty spicy five years ago when Webster was having his second wind, now maybe not so much, he's declined a fair bit while Simon's not quite at the same level but certainly hasn't had the same amount of dropoff. 70/30 for Simon. Round two, if Whitlock does win, has a lot of automatic story, Damon should have the edge, but not by a huge amount, approaching 60/40.

de Sousa v Vegso/Murnan - We've seen Janos a couple of times previously and he's looked alright, albeit not in the sort of form which we think will cause Joe serious problems. Murnan's been throwing at a 90 clip all season and should be a solid favourite. Against de Sousa, not so much, that's another 4-1 type of match.

Aspinall v Lewis/Brooks - Decent opportunity for Adrian here, who needs the ranking points for multiple reasons. Bradley managed to pick up a Development Tour and should be full of confidence, but Adrian's been playing substantially better. Bradley's got next to no twelve darters and can't finish in fifteen anywhere near often enough. Adie should be something like 1/4, and actually a slight favourite against Nathan.

Clayton v Krcmar/Gawlas - This is a real interesting first round game. Krcmar has been around for ages and looked really good in the time where he's taken steel tip seriously, whereas Gawlas is at the other end of his career, showing flashes but still fairly inconsistent. Actually seems quite close on paper, Krcmar has the edge but it's not by much at all. 55/45. Clayton ought to take the next round three times out of four, so a strong favourite as you'd expect, but not automatic.

Ratajski v Jagica/Williams - Another domestic qualifier I don't know anything about. Not on dartsdatabase. Complete random. Williams has looked a fair bit better than I thought he would do this season, and is probably not drawing dead against Krzysztof - it'd be a big ask, but one in three doesn't seem unreasonable?

Wright v Hempel/Jones - Jake really seems to mostly be making up the numbers on tour having won his tour card, having a huge string of first round defeats and mediocre scoring. Shame, maybe he's more of a second year guy, but he is here, albeit going to be a huge dog to Florian, who should take this more than three times out of four. Wright ought not to have huge trouble, but I can't see this being priced as the 2/5 that I think it ought to be, especially if Florian gets dragged down to Jake's level, so could be a bit of an underdog shot on Saturday?

Suljovic v Engstrom/Borland - Johan's been around for a while, hasn't looked great this year. Borland should have no trouble. Suljovic we're a bit clueless on, as he's been absent for so long, so maybe there's a fair bit of rust that needs shaking off? I don't see Mensur as much better than 60/40 in any case, so this could be one to monitor.

Smith v Beaton/Michael - Steve could do with picking up cash here. Michael much the same, albeit for different reasons. Steve should be too strong, but John's doing enough to have a bit more than a one in three shot. Michael on the other hand just needs to do his job and he should reach the last sixteen, Steve would have a bit more than a one in four chance, but not by much.

van Duijvenbode v Lovely/Barry - Big shot for Keane here, Lovely got through the associate qualifier but hasn't done much on the Challenge Tour and just plodded at low-mid eighties in orthodox averages. No trouble for Keane. Keane against Dirk is incredibly interesting, Dirk's got somewhere between a 60% and a two in three chance, but that should have great pace and be a preview of late round major matches for years to come.

Bets will be up once lines are posted. Can only see outrights at this stage.

Monday, 30 August 2021

So what's happened in August?

RIP Kyle Anderson is the main thing. Incredibly sad, made a great impression on the game but was unfortunately just on the wrong side of a couple of razor thin matches which could easily have seen him break into the big time. He'll be missed, had plenty of time to return later on after his returning his card but we'll never know.

Womens' Series was cancelled. Can't say I blame the PDC, the take-up on the continent was incredibly poor and they didn't really have too much of a choice in the matter. At least they are keeping the options open in terms of events by extending the two in the UK, but this has got to be disappointing for them.

Last Super Series was a bit chalky. Searle the only real surprise, and even then he already had course and distance and wasn't too far off the top players. Price and Wright will claim the other two and the plaudits, but van Gerwen actually had the highest scoring, by nearly two clear points. Probably getting close to the stage where we can freely back him for value. Schindler again put up some great performances, averaging in the top 10. We're backing him each way until further notice.

UK Challenge Tour was all about Jim Williams and Adam Smith-Neale. Jim's been fine for quite some time, but it's great to see Adam back throwing near his best after the injury issue god knows how long ago now. Outside of them, it was all Scotland, everyone binking doing fine, but generally the overall standard was a bit hit and miss. Quite a lot of players getting to the latter stages but not scoring brilliantly once there. Second weekend for both starts on Friday, which is going to be a huge weekend with the European Tour back as well.

It's also incredibly frustrating that they've not been able to find a time or venue to play a third European Tour event. That they only have half the events compared to last year is quite ridiculous, albeit 99% it's going to be outside of the PDC's hands. Maybe if they binned off the Nordic World Series event and the World Series finals, they could have found the time? The European Championship also, as a result, has the huge potential to be a joke - albeit one that could have betting opportunities.

Development Tour was super fun. Rusty-Jake was killing it. Almost certainly winning young player of the year here. Dom Taylor had a great weekend in the UK, although playing nowhere near the same standard. Zonneveld, Brooks, Doets, van Duivenbode, Kay, Colley and Springer amongst others all outperformed Dom over a decent sample size, but hey, it's a results business.

I'll be back Thursday evening for Euro Tour bets. It's been a while.