Monday, 6 March 2023


Holy fucking shit Andrew Gilding is a major champion, not a sentence I thought I'd be saying any time soon, if ever, but without ever playing spectacularly (certainly not with the heights he had during his previous semi final run in any case) he just hung in there when needed and took his chances, which is all he really needed to do. Huge result, also a pretty massive performance from Adam Gawlas to make the semi final which should see him securely inside the top 64 at the end of the year. Also great runs from Schindler, who continues to push up towards the top 20, and Richie Burnett as well, while Richie will still need to do some work to retain his card beyond 2023, he is at least in a decent position to do so, will still probably need to make the worlds, but there's a chance. A few disappointing early exits for many players in and around the 10-25 FRH ranking brackets, although as we did see there were a lot of high profile draws in round four, so this is the sort of thing that can always happen.

New FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Rob Cross
8 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)
9 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)
10 Jonny Clayton
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode
12 Joe Cullen
13 Dave Chisnall
14 Ross Smith
15 Ryan Searle
16 Damon Heta
17 Gabriel Clemens
18 Andrew Gilding (NEW)
19 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
20 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)

Wade drops off the top 20. Dimi's semi sees the only other top 20 move, Schindler's quarter sees him up to #24, Gawlas is up inside the top 45 now, while Burnett is up to #72.

It's a busy couple of weeks coming up - there's Players Championships both of the next two weekends, the second bunch being a funky double header in Germany right after they have four Challenge Tours (I suppose that kind of makes sense if you think about it), this weekend we've also got more SDC action, the Asian Tour returns for the first time since forever, while next weekend also sees the Isle of Man event, which seems downgraded from previous years, but oh well.

As an aside, would it surprise you if I told you that Brendan Dolan and Adrian Lewis are outside of Matchplay qualification spots right now? Or that de Sousa and Ratajski are provisionally out of the Grand Prix (as is, for that matter, Gilding)?

Sunday, 5 March 2023

UK Open quarters - any value?

A bit late in the day, but Dart Connect failed to get two of the last sixteen games from board two onto their system, so needed to use the much slower version of scraping from sportradar (which, unlike in round one, was actually working, avoiding the even slower version of finding the games on Youtube and scraping from there). Looks like all the big guns bar MvG are out, and as he's got a potentially tricky opponent in the quarters, perhaps it's not a formality that he wins it? We'll see. Ando was a bit disappointing in the match with Dimi, passing up many chances to get ahead earlier, then after getting back to 8-8 with the match in his hand, chokes the seventeenth leg. Oh well. Still up over a unit for the event, anything we like in the quarters?

Gilding/Schindler - Great opportunity for both here, in a match I'm finding impossible to call for either - Schindler has the tiniest edge possible, if they were to play a world final, I wouldn't even favour him by a third of a percent. As such, the tiniest of value is on Gilding (who has been this deep before, let's not forget), but at a generally best price of 11/10 it's not the edge to chase.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Nathan's come through some tough opponents, but maybe a little bit of a breather of a match against Cullen will come in handy to keep him refreshed against MvG - let's not forget Aspinall at the Slam being completely spent in the final. van Gerwen probably had his toughest test on the Friday, with both the remaining games being relatively comfortable - one against an opponent I thought he'd steamroller but didn't, then one where I thought he'd be given a stern test, but wasn't (maybe Humphries ran out of steam given his draws). Aspinall's live but I'm not giving him a great deal better than a one in four chance. He's 10/3, again, it's not the sort of edge I'd want to jump over.

Burnett/van den Bergh - Can the Richie fairytale continue? He's already beaten one player better than Dimitri, so why not? This is actually projecting reasonably close, although I say that in terms of closer than you might think - still seeing Dimi at about a 70/30 line. That probably points towards taking Richie, but I do wonder how many times he can get away with things as he's done, what with two 10-9 wins already and overcoming a big average differential against Wright. He's clearly going to need to be opportunistic again, it can happen, but I've just got the sense that taking around 4/1 isn't quite the right play.

Cross/Gawlas - Rob's just been quietly going about his business, eliminating Beaton and the Dutch pair of RvB and JdZ, while Adam has come through several tight games before putting together his best performance probably of his career to get this far in a rout of Willie O'Connor. Rob should be far too strong and claim this a little over three quarters of the time, which with a line of 10/3 on Gawlas, is reflected in the market.

So no bets - with the only one we saw in the last sixteen being on someone who's out, this isn't unexpected. As stated, I don't hate it if you want to take a flier on Richie, I'm just not going to officially recommend it, I might have a couple of quid on the exchange for shits and giggles. Will probably NOT be back in time for the semis, but I do not predict we will see anything of value if the market's views are coinciding with ours this accurately already.

Saturday, 4 March 2023

Round 6 - any bets?

One up one down today, as the up was at even money there's no change in the profit and loss account, where there is change is in the makeup of the tournament, with Price and Noppert dropping out, annoyingly two of the players I was really close to adding on with backs went on to win (Dolan, Ando), maybe I should trust the numbers a bit more. Oh well, onto the last sixteen we go:

Dolan/Gilding - This would I think be a pretty fun watch, despite both players being somewhat deliberate, there's so many similarities in their games. Projections are saying Gilding by a little bit more than 60/40, don't think either player has been in brilliant recent form but Gilding's definitely been playing the better stuff in this tournament. Feels like it's close to a play on Andrew, 4/5 isn't a bad price but ideally I'd want ever so slightly more. That's the way I'd go if you put a gun to my head.

Anderson/van den Bergh - Ando made one Belgian look extremely ordinary in the last round, and now gets another who did enough to beat King without ever really looking brilliant. This seems like a 2-1 kind of game in favour of Ando. The line is nowhere near that with Gary being the underdog. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice and pass up the sort of value I did earlier, 0.25u Anderson 6/5.

de Zwaan/Cross - Jeffrey looks to be back to his best more and more with every passing game after dumping out Price with the highest average of the round, while Cross keeps doing Cross things, getting a professional job done on Beaton with a ton plus average of his own. Projections are hugely in favour of Rob, I'm going to naturally temper them slightly given just how well Jeffrey played this afternoon (despite the Friday being, at best, simply alright statistically), and it's enough for me not to want to take Cross at 2/5, which with the level of edge I perceive him having ignoring this afternoon would be close to a moderate play. Certainly don't want to be getting on the underdog hype train.

Clayton/Schindler - Jonny didn't need to do anything spectacular to get a big win over de Sousa, while Martin looked very competent in dumping out previous winner Adrian Lewis. Clayton's a favourite, but I don't see Martin as outclassed, he's certainly a live dog with a projection coming in at just over 40%, maybe tone that down a tad with Clayton's form to start the year. With Schindler having prices approaching 2/1, it's certainly worth considering taking the German here, but I'd want longer than 2's to actually recommend a play. Clayton certainly not "acca safe".

van Gerwen/Humphries - Michael was in a spot of bother in terms of the scoreline against Kleermaker, but kleered up (sigh) after the break, while Luke was forced the distance yet again but got home against Smith. This looks 60/40 in projections but I wonder how much back to back really long and tough games against quality opponents will have taken out of Luke. We can't even get 2/1 so this match just doesn't appeal to me from a betting perspective.

Wright/Burnett - Richie got home in a decider, while Peter wasn't brilliant statistically but was doing enough to get home in a fairly close game against Rydz. Richie's run has been a nice one, but it surely ends here, a best price of 5/1 looks spot on from where I'm looking and Snakebite will likely move on to the quarters.

O'Connor/Gawlas - Fantastic opportunity for both here (although Willie's obviously been this far before), O'Connor dumped out the reigning champion in a decider breaking a three figure average, while Adam was in a bit of a duel with Kevin Doets but came out on the right side of it. Willie should be favoured here, if I was setting a no vig line I'd go 8/13 - the market has it a little bit tighter, but not so close where we'd want to consider going against Gawlas.

Aspinall/Cullen - Final game, and it's another game for Nathan against a Premier League snub after he took out van Duijvenbode, this time it's against Cullen who ended the run of Karel Sedlacek. This one appears very tight on paper, I would maybe give Cullen the slightest of edges and I feel as if he may be slightly fresher, having had two easier games to this point as well as no Premier League the day before as well. Nathan is a marginal favourite, but it's still close enough that 11/10 isn't the sort of line I want to be piling on to here.

That's it, back tomorrow morning in all probability for quarter final thoughts.

Round 5 bets

Solid evening session, picked up another half a unit, pity that Littler and de Decker couldn't convert what were pretty good chances to win their games, but at the same time Dolan had no business winning his game against van der Voort, so we won't be too greedy and disappointed that it wasn't a bigger day. Getting towards the business end of things now, sixteen round five ties to look at, let's go:

Gawlas/Doets - Can't be overstated how big a game this is for both, plenty of reasonable draws to get in the next round which would put them in a major quarter final. Actually seeing these fairly close with Kevin having about a 5-6% edge, the market's actually shading things towards Gawlas, it's not quite enough to bet it (can only see Hills at 6/5), a bit longer and I'd go with it.

Burnett/Evetts - Same here, this would really help both hugely in their race to save tour cards, I'm seeing it about 60/40 in favour of Richie, that's enough for me, 0.25u Burnett evs

O'Connor/Noppert - Willie got a really easy run while Danny was given a good test by Williams who had a decent chance late on to force it all the way, Danny should be comfortable here, 70/30 as I see it, he's just shorter than 2/1 on which looks just fine.

Price/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was forced all the way by Jansen, while Gerwyn wasn't really tested but still looked in great form, Price looks way too good here, 1/6 might actually be the tiniest of values but with JdZ looking a little bit resurgent I'm happy to call it correct.

Lewis/Schindler - Adie got a comfortable win against Campbell, Schindler was pushed a bit more by Whitlock but never really looked in any danger. Coinflip for me, bookies can't split them either, next.

Huybrechts/Anderson - Kim needed to get a comeback to see off de Decker, while Ando was always a little bit too good for Wade who'll plummet in the official rankings now. The data model is all over Anderson, even just shorter than 1/2 looks like it might easily be a good play, if he plays like he did last night it will be, but I'll factor in some percent for Kim being in the winners circle recently and probably playing better than historical stats and just about say no to a Gary bet, which might look real silly in a few hours.

Woodhouse/Gilding - Good run for Luke having eliminated Josh Rock and then looking really good in a one-sided rout of Jelle Klaasen, while Andrew's apparently reached this stage for the first time since his semi run. Ooh. Numbers are saying 60/40 Gilding, he's 4/5, with those numbers taking into account that Gilding was pretty good this time last year and maybe not so much of late, and also factoring in Luke looking extremely good yesterday, I'm happy to call this a clear no bet.

Smith/Humphries - Michael was too good for Ian White, while Luke needed every leg to defeat Damon Heta and keep hopes of a first major alive, which he's going to have to do the hard way it seems, if it is this weekend. The numbers for these seem really, really close, Michael's better but only fractionally, we're getting close to the price where I'd want to bet on Luke, but I'd need slightly longer than 6/4 and it's not there, at least not on the exchanges.

Dobey/Dolan - Brendan as mentioned needed a big comeback to survive, while Dobey came through a tough opponent in Ryan Searle with a solid average. Not quite 60/40, but Chris is favoured for me here, Dolan's getting up close to 5/2 which seems marginal in terms of a play, I won't but I wouldn't be lumping on the PL star here. Not even close.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk was given a tough test by Ratajski as expected, while Nathan was given an even tougher test by Soutar, which maybe wasn't quite so expected but it's what happened, maybe a chance for Dirk to make a statement "why is he in the Premier League" game? 65/35 in favour of Dirk for me, why the market is so close, I don't know, 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11

Cullen/Sedlacek - Joe was too good for Slevin as we thought but Dylan hung around for some time, while Karel blitzed Suljovic although the numbers seemed fairly even. Looks like Joe is clearly favoured, just shy of 70/30 but better than 2-1, market has it a bit further but not with the edge to consider playing Sedlacek as an underdog flyer, even with him looking superb in the earlier rounds.

Kleermaker/van Gerwen - Michael had to navigate a really tough draw in Chisnall but did, Kleermaker averaged less than Killington but still won 10-6, ok then. This is unbelievably lopsided, 1/10 actually isn't a losing play, that's how favoured I'm projecting MvG to be.

Clayton/de Sousa - Jonny got a bastard of a draw in Ross Smith and needed every leg to get over the line, while Jose got a more comfortable opponent in Labanauskas, who kept it surprisingly close but JdS moves on regardless. Clayton's better, but not by as much as you might think, maybe about 15% better. Call it a touch more given his red hot start to the season if you want. At 2/1, de Sousa is of minor interest but backing against Clayton right now is a bit dangerous, would have liked to have seen a bit more in round four to consider it. Jonny doesn't seem a good acca bet though.

King/van den Bergh - Mervyn got through an unremarkable game with Keane Barry, while Dimitri took a match of losing world semi finalists a little bit more comfortably than many thought. Dimitri should be too strong here, getting up close to 65% chances, some of the prices for King are getting close to where I'd consider a small flyer, but it's not quite enough for me.

Beaton/Cross - Steve continues a great vein of form and an 80 average from Rowby never threatened, while Rob got the deciding leg win over Barney. I'd expect Rob to win this 80% of the time just on pure numbers over the year and discounting form, so maybe with Cross being undervalued generally and Steve being a fan favourite who is playing well, there's have been a play. But Rob's shorter than 1/3 at best, so there isn't.

Wright/Rydz - Peter needed every leg to scrape through a deceptively tough draw against Bunting, while Callan looked probably the best he has done for a while in eliminating a close opponent in the rankings in Daryl Gurney. Wright should have too much here, I'd price it as 2/5, it's actually slightly tighter in the markets which does surprise me a touch (although Peter's awful PL form might be a factor in that), but there is not the sort of value to seriously think about taking Wright here.

That's your lot, expect me back after full times or there abouts with last sixteen thoughts.

Friday, 3 March 2023

Round 4 bets

OK, here we go:

Labanauskas - de Sousa - 0.5u de Sousa 4/9 (Ladbrokes)
Woodhouse - Klaasen 0.25u Woodhouse 4/5 (365)
Killington - Kleermaker 0.25u Killington 13/10 (365)
Suljovic - Sedlacek no bet

Gawlas - Littler 0.25u Littler 20/21 (Boyles)
Wade - Anderson 0.25u Anderson 10/11 (365)
Campbell - Lewis no bet
van Gerwen - Chisnall no bet

O'Connor - Wattimena no bet
Price - Banks 1u Price 1/14 (Hills)
Humphries - Heta no bet
Ratajski - van Duijvenbode no bet

van Barneveld - Cross no bet
de Zwaan - Jansen no bet
King - Barry no bet
Rafferty - Evetts no bet

Schindler - Whitlock no bet
Huybrechts - de Decker 0.1u de Decker 11/8 (365)
Slevin - Cullen 0.25u Cullen 2/5 (Ladbrokes)
Noppert - Williams no bet

Rydz - Gurney no bet
van den Bergh - Clemens no bet
Doets - Lukeman no bet
Burnett - Hempel no bet

Rodriguez - Beaton no bet
van der Voort - Dolan 0.25u Dolan evs (365)
Smith - White no bet
Bunting - Wright no bet

Soutar - Aspinall no bet
Searle - Dobey no bet
Evans - Gilding no bet
Smith - Clayton no bet

UK Open round 4 draw thoughts

What a great day of darts it's been so far, not being able to find anything on van Veen against Owen aside, hopefully someone puts a recording of the stream up. And it's going to get better tonight, that is one hell of a draw and you could easily find a dozen games worthy of being put on the main stage, and there's not too many at all which look like complete duds. Let's put it this way - you've got Wade/Ando, Humphries/Heta, Ratajski/DvD, Barney/Cross, Noppert/Williams, DvdB/Clemens, Searle/Dobey and Smith/Clayton, and NONE of them are likely to be on the main stage assuming they pick the big four, all of which have got really interesting matchups in their own rights (MvG/Chizzy, Smith/White, Price/Banks and Wright/Bunting). Let's put up some percentages while we wait for the bookies to populate lines - was a pretty solid day, 4.35 units bet and 0.8 units profit for a steady high teens return in ROI. Some of these might have really limited sample sizes (looking mainly at Banks and Littler here, but also some newer card holders like Slevin although most have been filtered out), so some of these might be a bit unreliable, but when I actually start to make the best I'll take all that into account.

Labanauskas - de Sousa 11/89
Woodhouse - Klaasen 70/30
Killington - Kleermaker 61/39
Suljovic - Sedlacek 51/49

Gawlas - Littler 26/74
Wade - Anderson 24/76
Campbell - Lewis 41/59
van Gerwen - Chisnall 61/39

O'Connor - Wattimena 54/46
Price - Banks 99/1
Humphries - Heta 48/52
Ratajski - van Duijvenbode 33/67

van Barneveld - Cross 43/57
de Zwaan - Jansen 66/34
King - Barry 59/41
Rafferty - Evetts 55/45

Schindler - Whitlock 59/41
Huybrechts - de Decker 28/72
Slevin - Cullen 18/82
Noppert - Williams 58/42

Rydz - Gurney 58/42
van den Bergh - Clemens 63/37
Doets - Lukeman 41/59
Burnett - Hempel 59/41

Rodriguez - Beaton 52/48
van der Voort - Dolan 32/68
Smith - White 74/26
Bunting - Wright 36/64

Soutar - Aspinall 29/71
Searle - Dobey 58/42
Evans - Gilding 27/73
Smith - Clayton 41/59

Back shortly with actual plays.

UK Open Friday live post

As previous, I'll edit this post in running as and when I've got stuff to say. Working on known round two games now.

Known round two games:

Jansen/Brooks - Rates as a real coin toss, maybe Brooks slightly favoured. Jansen's slightly odds against so market tends to agree.
van Dongen/Doets - Kevin's the better player here, should win this two times out of three. Think there's enough value to go small on this one, 0.1u Doets 4/6, a bit better is available on the exchanges and some random bookies so go with that if you like.
Perales/Mansell - Seems kind of the same as the above. Mickey's favoured 65/35 in my eyes. There's a couple of random bookies that are offering a bit better than 4/6, would probably fire at 8/11 but that sort of price isn't generally available.
Peters/Wilson - Another 2-1 sort of game with James being favoured. Market is spot on.
Veenstra/Clark - Stats actually have Jamie surprisingly close in this one, having as much as a 45% chance on this one. This doesn't feel intuitively right and Richard's sample size is a little small, so I'm going to ignore the numbers despite better than 2/1 being available.
Burness/Rafferty - Yet more 2-1 games, Nathan's favoured. He's 4/7 compared to 7/4 for Kevin, so happy enough to ignore this one.
Szaganski/Kciuk - Back to back local derbies from countries which don't seem an obvious call for one, feels like Kciuk has been the consistently better player but he only projects at 55/45, market seems to have picked up on this one with a paltry 13/10 being the best you can get on Radek which clearly isn't worth it.
Scutt/Hendriks - Scutt is clearly better here, this is 3-1 territory. Enough to go small here - 0.1u Scutt 1/2, slightly better is available on rando sites and exchanges, think if you were to get better than 4/7 you can upgrade unit size.

Known round three games:

Lewis/Murnan - Adie should have this easily enough, Joe's not drawing dead but this is 70/30 territory. Murnan's right in the middle of 2/1 and 3/1 so no bet here.
Krcmar/Wattimena - Tough one to read, Jermaine's improving while Boris has often struggled in big events compared to the floor, yet the numbers say 55/45 Krcmar. Slightly odds against seems worth the stab to me, 0.1u Krcmar 11/10, that Jermaine lost to Springer last weekend gives me an indication that while he's playing better, conversion when it counts might still be a small factor.
Joyce/de Decker - Ryan's not been particularly underperforming, but de Decker is just getting continually better and rates as a 60/40 favourite to me. Coralbrokes give odds against, so while there is a wee bit of a consistency issue in Mike's game, it is being ironed out, 0.25u de Decker 11/10.
Kleermaker/Lennon - Important game for both, perhaps more for Steve. Lennon is playing the far better darts and should grab this two times in three. The market has it a little closer, which I can understand, but not to the sort of better than 4/6 line where I'd start with a small stab like with Doets in the previous round.
Rock/Woodhouse - Shame this one's come up early, Luke's clearly capable of getting to something like the last 32 or possibly further with a competent draw, and Josh can't like this draw too much. Obviously Rock is favoured, 70/30 for me. Market has it ever so slightly more one sided but not enough value to bet Woody here.
Hempel/Hughes - Jamie's resurgent and while Florian's not playing bad darts, Hughes ought to take this one, yet another game that projects about 65/35. Market is only slightly better than 1/2 on Hughes in some places so no value to be had.
O'Connor/Petersen - Oddly Devon's actually projecting at only a 40/60 dog, but his winning legs aren't actually too far behind Willie's. The losing legs are further off, so consistency is a factor. 12/5 on Devon I suppose isn't an awful play, but I can't really go against Willie in this venue, can't see him gifting Petersen the chances he will likely need.

1101 - We're under way, was a bit worried when all the games warming up briefly disappeared off Dart Connect, but must just have been a standard tournament thing I guess.
1104 - Actually noticed we've got four bets in play immediately, and they've all taken the first leg, will take that for now.
1110 - Claydon casually averaging 110 and being 3-0 down is a thing.
1112 - Now he wins a leg and the average drops eight points. Such a silly statistic.
1116 - Robbie Knops the first two get one away from a win, Adam Warner joins him right after.
1127 - Two up and two down on the bets from the first round of boards 3-8, small profit booked. Daniel Lee flier didn't work and Neyens was very disappointing, but Knops and Webster got the job done. Jurjen looked very good. Looking at four now known round two games now.
1130 - Montgomery/Warner feels too close to call. On the basis of what we saw from Jurjen, his game with Ronny Huybrechts seems the same. Menzies should be far, far too strong for Moston, hard to quantify given limited data on Jim but anything better than 1/3 might be a play. Webster/Martinez seems a bit better than 60/40 in favour of the Spaniard. Checking for lines now.
1133 - Two bets immediately taken on 365, 0.25u Menzies 2/5 and 0.25u Martinez 11/8.
1134 - Other two games we know are priced alright at a first glance. Looks like van Veen got through his opener, just waiting to have the stats come through on Dart Connect.
1135 - Kuivenhoven bet looks in real trouble, down four zip and averaging under 80 against Slevin in three figures, ouch.
1137 - That said, also got Kenny and Usher in the running right now, Kenny's up 3-1 with a worse average, while Usher is 2-2 but averaging 10 points higher than the qualifier. Also seeing Hall, Nentjes and Gurney doing fine so far.
1139 - van Veen/Owen had better come through on Dart Connect, as sportradar have their first fuckup of the year, no data at all. Useless.
1145 - They're also not even trying for the Richardson/Tricole game. This is not good and I hope DC are at least watching the stream, rather than just going to copy from sportradar after the event.
1150 - Rupprecht forced a decider, not great. Looking at van Veen as 65/35 against Waites, Slevin only having a small edge versus Wilkinson, and Hall solid 70/30 over Banks, although that's only an estimation.
1152 - Another couple of round two bets, 0.1u Wilkinson 2/1 against Slevin, this is a bit of a flyer but price seems OK, also 0.25u van Veen 10/11 versus Waites. Would really have liked to see the stats, but oh well.
1157 - Thinking O'Shea should be a marginal favourite against Usher, 60/40 or something like that. Will check a line.
1200 - Mixed pricing on Usher/O'Shea. 365 has John at 11/10, which is tempting, while Ladbrokes has Usher at 11/8?
1202 - Going to take that 365 price small, 0.1u O'Shea 11/10.
1206 - Sportradar now at least working for the Wenig game, but still nothing for the first two matches. May be a case of needing to find someone having uploaded the stream and doing shit manually which in 2023 is unacceptable.
1214 - That's a strong showing from Gary Davey. Against someone like Mol next round, it's got to be worth a flyer assuming a reasonable price?
1218 - Someone from Dart Connect saying there's "technical issues". Yeah, right, other boards are working fine? Just going to check Zonneveld/Brown projections now.
1220 - Not being offered much of anything on Davey, only seeing 365 right now, but that's 13/8. Was hoping for better than 2/1. Zonneveld is nearly a play with 365 not being able to separate them, just waiting to see if another book will give us odds against which I'd go with at the current projections.
1221 - Also, Littler 6-0 on debut, nice, was expecting the win but that's impressive.
1222 - Yeah, doubt we're going to see better on Davey or Zonneveld. Laddies have Niels at around 4/6, which is lol.
1229 - Few games which are mostly guesses here based on sample size - Vandenbogaerde and Littler both 60/40 favourites, Killington a bit more at 65/35?
1233 - What a weird mix of games to just make notes on - de Zwaan hitting three legs of twelve or better, while Monk and Andersen couldn't find a fifteen between them in a game that went the distance!
1234 - Thoughts on their next matches - Monk should be a solid favourite versus Knops, 70/30 is an estimate. de Zwaan/Nentjes projects with Geert being a small favourite, but with Jeffrey looking on form I'm going to adjust that to a pure flip.
1237 - Tacking on another small bet, 0.1u Killington evs, that's on 365, other places have it more like 4/6 so locking this in. The Klose and JdZ matches look accurately priced, still looking at Littler and Monk's games.
1239 - Also going small with 0.1u Littler 5/4 on Ladbrokes, think he should be the favourite in this one.
1248 - Last few round one games just finishing up now, so starting to look ahead to round three ties as and when we get knowledge.
1252 - There are a few second round games which I've not looked at in detail, but nothing is jumping off the coupon as being worthy of investigation or a bet right now.
1259 - Fantastic showing from Veenstra, first man through to round three. Dan Read making a great comeback effort in the last first rounder going on.
1301 - Veenstra against Rowby in round three should be good. Thinking Richard should be a favourite in this one, but with Rowby's 2022, I don't know if he will be. One to monitor.
1307 - Wilson with the least convincing whitewash of all time. Youth shows out over experience with Rafferty beating Burness, upcoming last 96 tie with Meikle should be good, although one which I think Ryan ought to take 60/40.
1310 - Meikle right where I'd expect him to be in prices. Veenstra is a slight dog in the market but not long enough to get excited about.
1319 - Montgomery through after a tight one with Warner, now plays Whitlock where he should be a 3-1 dog. Also not sure why Kenny is going off at 11/10 against Heneghan? Sure, he averaged lower, but I don't think he's the lesser player?
1321 - Three bets in play right now with Martinez, O'Shea and van Veen just needing to hold at most three legs in any respective match for a win.
1322 - Actually, make that four, as Wilkinson's just under way against Slevin.
1323 - That seemed to immediately bok Martinez, as Webster breaks and is throwing in the decider.
1331 - Urgh, O'Shea got broken in the decider, that's a real kick in the teeth. Going to check if any more round three games can be bet.
1334 - Three of interest - van Veen against Williams ought to be spectacular, Jim a small favourite, Doets against Szaganski shouldn't be too bad, Kevin a bit more than 60% but not two in three, while Evans against Usher is projecting huge for Ricky but I'm not sure that's accurate given Graham's sample size.
1337 - Also had Mansell/Suljovic just confirmed, which I actually have as too close to call. 0.25u 4/5 Doets on 365 placed.
1341 - Couple more just added on 365 - 0.1u Mansell 2/1 against Suljovic, and 0.1u Evans 4/5 against Usher.
1344 - Two more bets just finalised, Wilkinson gave it a good shot against Slevin but couldn't quite get home, while Littler looked even better than in round one with a 6-2 win over Rusty, so another small incremental gain. Ever so slightly up so far.
1350 - Another few of games to look at - Barry is about a 70/30 favourite against Mol, would have expected more, but I guess not, is showing at 4/9, 2/5 etc which seems fine, then Littler/Edhouse, limited data on Luke but the bookies not being able to split them seems fine. Williams/Jansen being a pick'em also seems fine, only places that are edging towards either player are doing so towards Lewy which looks right to me.
1355 - Killington off to a good start for one of our bets, up 3-0, while Menzies gets us more in the back and now plays Ian White in a true 50/50 game next.
1404 - Menzies/White showing as a flip in the one book I'm seeing. Read/Lukeman could be interesting, Dan's not played badly and Lukeman might be overvalued. Scutt/Beaton also appears close, although Steve is playing excellent darts so might need a big price on Connor.
1406 - Killington is through and might be sneaky value, Madars I'm thinking is almost certainly going to be overrated once I see a line.
1407 - Klaasen safely through. Can't get better than 6/4 on Scutt so scratch that idea.
1410 - Looks like the one book I'm seeing lines on, we can get north of 2/1 on both Read and Killington. Kind of tempting at that price already, but going to wait and see if another book offers better.
1414 - Superb win for Sedlacek. Any questions about whether his 2022 form was temporary are gone with that one. Still waiting on an opponent.
1418 - Ultra rough game for Matt Campbell. He gets through to an intriguing game with Jeff Smith, but game must be upped dramatically in that one.
1421 - Two long shots added, 0.1u Killington 11/5 against Razma and 0.1u Read 11/5 against Lukeman. These should both be closer, George is 13/8 on Laddies in comparison, struggling to see anyone else pricing up the Lukeman game. Scott Williams against Jelle Klaasen seems about right to me.
1424 - Knops with a solid 6-0 win in the bank, may temper thoughts about lumping on Slevin as a result.
1428 - Just a handful of stragglers left - Burnett is done, Klose is playing, Brown and Gurney are just starting now, then that'll be the last of the round 3 ties done to look at.
1453 - No further round 3 bets, nothing of interest has appeared, so just keeping tabs on any notable wins from here on out.
1454 - That is unless Darius is rated far too closely to Zonneveld, who's just completed our round 3 lineup.