Sunday 21 April 2024

QF bets

Not taking Ando, 8/15 I suppose isn't bad, but I'd just need fractionally more before going for the bet.
0.1u Cross 12/5 on 365, here I think he has just enough quality to get there often enough more than the line with the frequency that's worth a small stab.
0.1u Smith 5/4 on Ladbrokes, Heta's quality of play and Ross making heavy work of the last sixteen is a natural concern, but I do think Smith is the better player right now, and all the concerns are really doing is tempering my sizing.
0.1u Clemens 11/5 on 365, Gabriel looked very good earlier today, van Gerwen wasn't bad but was forced to work by Clayton, the numbers give this more of a high 30% chance than the low 30% chance the line suggests so I'll go with the flier here again.

ET4 quarters

OK, we got lucky with that Smith/Edhouse game, so I think our overall ups and downs are more or less level now. The last sixteen is still going on but I want to head out for the Cup game, so let's have a quick look at projections for the three that are finalised:

Rock/Anderson - 71/29 Anderson
Cross/Humphries - 61/39 Humphries
Smith/Heta - 57/43 Smith

Then in the last one, and these are without any sort of data on the last sixteen, MvG would be 55% against Chizzy and 61% against Clemens, while Clayton would be 37% against Clemens and 32% against Chisnall, so might be a case of betting whoever comes through the second game? Will post bets if any probably at half time or there abouts.

ET4 round 3

What an incredible display that was from everyone yesterday. I'm just looking at the numbers, I was watching El Crapico and didn't actually see any of it personally, but that's got to be close to, if not the best, days of European Tour ever, especially notable since it was only the Saturday, and we've got a great lineup today. On the betting I think we were a tad unlucky, Clemens winning got us out for relatively minor damage, but a combination of Clayton playing the best he has done in ages to even put Dobey into a position where he can miss three clear at double for a leg, including in the decider, is an unfortunate combination, Mansell did not play badly at all, it's just that Heta was playing so well he would have beaten anyone with that display, then Barney was able to take things all the way, if never looking like actually winning the match, although he had left himself on a two darter after twelve, so to ask the question of the other player in that spot I guess I'll take. Eight games today, what do we like?

Rock/Smith - Josh really wasn't in top gear against Sparidaans but didn't really need to be, Smith was pretty good but couldn't really put Barney away, my data literally cannot split the two (they're so close that a world final would be 50% to two decimal places), so if I lean either way I lean Rock, given a small consistency edge and the odds against tag, although he'll need to up his game from yesterday I feel. If it was any longer I'd probably take a small stab.

Anderson/Price - Two players who played back to back and both looked equally dangerous meet up for the latest encounter of a fabled series of matches. Market is having real trouble separating the two, but is perhaps surprisingly putting Price as the marginal favourite. I think there's close to a bet here - if you have Sporting Index and can get the 11/10 go with it, if anyone offered 6/5 then I think that's enough to go larger, but for now I'll just go 0.1u Anderson 21/20 on Coralbrokes/Betfred for a game that looks 55/45 in Gary's favour.

Noppert/Cross - Danny had another very solid game against Gurney, not really putting a step wrong at any point, while Rob needed all eleven legs to see off Schindler, coming from 3-1 down to fire in three twelve dart or better legs in a spell of four then holding out. Looks to be Cross for me, slap bang in the middle of 60% and two in three chances, which I think is enough chances at the prices to go small, 0.1u Cross 3/4 again on Coralbrokes, 8/11 is probably also fine but 4/6 isn't enough.

Humphries/Bunting - Luke came through a great 6-5 game against Littler, while Bunting dodged a bullet (see what I did there) against Ryan Searle to also come through in a decider. Stephen's doing enough to get just over 35% win chances, there's only really the spread companies that are offering better than 2/1 and that's only just, I'd probably need north of 9/4 before I could really start going against Humphries in this one.

Edhouse/Smith - Ritchie continues a push towards what looked like an optimistic Matchplay slot but is now looking more realistic with a steady win over a bit of a below par DvD, but 6-1 is still no joke, while Ross was another comfortable early winner, having 2-3 poor legs but not really being threatened seriously by Luke Woodhouse. Edhouse is full of confidence but Smith is no joke and I'm seeing him as right in the middle of the 70% to 75% range, which gives us a fairly easy bet, 0.25u Smith 8/13 on Betfred, 4/7 I think is just about close to enough as well, anything the right side of 1/2 I think is alright.

Williams/Heta - Scott had a very solid game, just the slow first leg in the first game of the day but otherwise barely slipped at all against Ratajski, while Heta was unplayable against Mansell in maybe the performance of the day where there were a LOT of contenders. Heta looks about a 65/35 shot here, so with the relative level of play yesterday, Damon generally being just a touch shorter than 1/2 at best seems fine to me.

van Gerwen/Clayton - Michael did a more than professional job in seeing off Johan Engstrom for the loss of just the one leg, while Clayton nicked a decider against Dobey in, as stated, maybe the best game he's played all year. MvG is obviously much the better player at this stage, looks like a 70% to 75% punt again, so 4/11 appears close to a perfect line.

Chisnall/Clemens - Dave was fairly sluggish but came through a equally mediocre Keane Barry in possibly the only real damp squib of a game yesterday, while Clemens beat Pietreczko 6-2, a poor first two legs aside he was completely on it. Chizzy only looks about a 55/45 favourite here, so with the German crowd, the 6/4 we're getting offered on Clemens is extremely close to being worth it. I'd probably only need one more tick, 13/8 would be a go.

Friday 19 April 2024

ET4 rapid round 2 stuff

Bunting won as expected, it's really rare that I pick someone that odds on, but it looked good, we will take our ten percent, lol cullen lol wright lol us not pushing margins more, this is going to be a ready money round and we're going to be bang bang bang and if I post more than one word it's because the game in question is not close to the line. Vamos.

Ratajski/Williams - close on Ratajski but no
Smith/Woodhouse - no
Searle/Bunting - no
van Duijvenbode/Edhouse - weird one this in that Carl questioned what this one might look like. I had a guess at what the line would look like. Paddy Power is replicating my line right now. People are paid to do this shit
Noppert/Gurney - no
Clayton/Dobey - 0.25u Dobey 8/13 on 365 at least, line should be the other side of 1/2
Chisnall/Barry - no
Rock/Sparidaans - maybe Rock isn't short enough but can't see the edge
Anderson/Perez - maybe Ando isn't short enough but can't see the edge
Price/Dolan - no
Smith/van Barneveld - 0.1u van Barneveld 11/5, still not overly convinced Smith is consistent enough, Barney in form, numbers place this a lot closer to 60/40 in Smith's favour than him being better than a 2-1 favourite
Heta/Mansell - 0.1u Mansell 11/4, yes Wright is much worse than Heta right now but Mansell is legitimately playing fine and has much, much more than a one in four shot, this is easily more than 65/35, 11/4 is great so we go with it
Cross/Schindler - that this is evens isn't them taking the Schindi kool-aid, it's legit
van Gerwen/Engstrom - not touching after missing the Johan boat, that sort of price might have worked against Cullen but not against MvG
Humphries/Littler - pure flip so no
Pietreczko/Clemens - 0.25u Clemens 10/11, this is projecting better than 60/40, Ricardo is a tad more consistent, but Clemens has just come off a real easy win, Ricardo is maybe not in the best form, we'll take the price

ET4 bets

Rydz/Sparidaans - line looks fine.
Burton/Barry - line might be favouring Barry too much but only fractionally.
Williams/Springer - if Niko had shown us something recently I might have had a flier, but lack of recent data makes it hard to be confident about his level of play.
Gilding/Dolan - line seems accurate enough.
Woodhouse/Lukeman - line's in close enough of a ballpark, if Woodhouse drifted a tick or two we might go for a small stab but that seems unlikely to happen.
Engstrom/Cullen - 15/2 seems like a big number, might be a bit too big, wouldn't hate the tiniest of tiny stabs at it.
Zonneveld/Perez - market might be underestimating Zonneveld, but it's only marginal at best.
de Sousa/Gurney - might be the closest we have to a bet here. While the projections say it's a coinflip, I get the sense Daryl is playing better. As such, while 11/8 on Jose might be at worst neutral EV, I won't recommend it officially.
Edhouse/Wade - market's caught up to Ritchie and we can only get 13/10. That's just not enough.
Bunting/Grbavac - 0.5u Bunting 1/10 on 365, this is long odds on but I really do not see how Romeo can even get close in this one.
Roetzsch/van Barneveld - I guess the line is close enough to correct. I like Franz's game but would need a bit more than 9/2 against someone with a recent Pro Tour title to think about it.
Dobey/White - Chris might be ever so slightly undervalued here, but we're only talking about him being 4/11 when he should be maybe 1/3, 3/10 or there abouts, not enough confidence to chase that sort of edge.
Merk/Littler - LOL.
Schindler/van Veen - Martin's 4/5 which represents exactly the 55% we see him having, next.
Wright/Mansell - maybe there's the tiniest of value on Mickey. 11/8 isn't a bad play but I'd probably need 6/4 to open up with a tenth of a unit. And after Wright dropped a 70-something average yesterday, I hardly see the public money flying in on him.
Clemens/Eidams - hard to tell on this one really. Best guess would be that 4/1 is being slightly harsh on Eidams, but not truly out of line so I'll ignore this.

So nothing really of interest, understandable if you don't want to invest heavy in getting a 10% return in the only one we suggest.

Thursday 18 April 2024

Ultra rapid ET4 thoughts

Just going to look at the first round for now:

Rydz/Sparidaans - Decent opportunity for both. Callan's the better player but it's not prohibitive and Jeffrey probably rates to nick this nearly one time in three, so could go either way.
Burton/Barry - Fairly close one. The sort of game Keane needs to be winning to make progress, the sort of game Burton needs to be winning to have real chances of retaining his tour card. Could go either way again, Barry is only a tiny favourite.
Williams/Springer - Not seen Niko in a while. Pretty much a whole year at any reasonable level. He has shown flashes in the past and Scott won't have it all his own way you feel, but Williams ought to be favoured.
Gilding/Dolan - Two players who are in the category in the previous post they wouldn't want to be, so prove me wrong gents. Dolan's ever so marginally better but not even 55/45, it is slightly more of a favourite than Keane is a couple of matches prior though.
Woodhouse/Lukeman - Another competitive game between two players who'd like to push up into the top 32, although Lukeman seems a fair bit further off right now. Real coinflip here.
Engstrom/Cullen - Joe won't hate this draw, been a minute since we've seen Johan play, he's not awful but even if Cullen isn't at his best it's hard to say that he's going to have much trouble here.
Zonneveld/Perez - Niels is a late call up and Christian is making a debut on this stage, and it's Perez who is probably the underdog here, Niels approaching a 70% win chance as he looks to solidify a top 64 place after a decent 2023.
de Sousa/Gurney - Two players on the periphery of the top 32 here, you can see from the previous post that we're liking Daryl's game a fair bit more at present, but in this clash of major champions the projections are having a real hard time separating them in the slightest.

Edhouse/Wade - James is always a tough opponent but Edhouse is in a rich vein of form and won't be fearing anyone, and is showing enough that Wade is favoured but only by a couple of percentage points, so a real competitive game to open the evening session.
Bunting/Grbavac - Stephen ought to be just fine here, Romeo's had a few cameos and could be a real useful World Cup partner, but his standard is way off Bunting's and it's hard to see Grbavac grabbing more than a leg or two if we're being realistic.
Roetzsch/van Barneveld - Another game featuring someone who's off to a good start in the Challenge Tour, Franz actually being a touch higher in the rankings than Romeo is, but this is a tough draw with Barney having got somewhat of the winning bug back, and the veteran ought to be solidly favoured here.
Dobey/White - Ian's the second of two late replacements, and while he's playing better is still going to find it tough against one of the toughest draws he could have got, Dobey being in the hunt for a first title at this level and with a great second round draw, Ian is just the wrong side of 25% in a match up that projects a bit more one sided than I thought it would.
Merk/Littler - Welcome to the European Tour Arno!
Schindler/van Veen - This one should be a real fun one that we could be seeing at levels much higher than this for the next decade or two, and such is the level that Schindi is at, coupled with Gian not being quite so red hot as he was six months ago, the newest winner at this level is actually favoured 55/45, which surprises me a little.
Wright/Mansell - Peter could have got worse draws, but so could Mickey, there's probably at least a dozen players that Mansell could arguably say he'd have preferred not to draw as opposed to Wright. Mansell is a dog, but he's not even a 45/55 dog, he's really playing just fine and it highlights how Wright's game, while not in the slightest a secret, is not where it was.
Clemens/Eidams - Home nation derby to finish things off, Gabriel could do with a good win here to spark a bit of momentum with a winnable seed up afterwards, Rene's always been a bit hit and miss and didn't really do anything outstanding in the quali (then again, the only player that did something notable more than once was Horvat, who isn't even here), so Clemens ought to be just fine.

Bets probably in the morning.

Wednesday 17 April 2024

Top 32

Matt Edgar posed an interesting question on X the other day, asking a pretty simple question - if the PDC wiped all the rankings/seedings etc clean, how many of the current top 32 would actually be top 32 players? That's one that I'm going to look at, and try to pick out who clearly is, who probably is, who's a marginal case and who isn't. I'm going to use the scoring figures from September to give the main idea, but will use a bit of subjectivity as there are likely going to be some that are close. I'm also generally going to work on the assumption that it'll take some time to have the results finalise, so I'm taking general trajectory somewhat into account. Let's go.

Obviously yes

1) Luke Humphries - world champ, second in scoring, easy.
2) Michael van Gerwen - sixth in scoring but one of the few players still a danger to win any tourney he enters.
3) Michael Smith - down at 20th in scoring, which is a fair bit of a difference, but I don't think there's any question he's top 32 at all, can up his game when needed.
4) Nathan Aspinall - he's only just in the top 16 in scoring, but he's won a major title in the last twelve months which makes a clear case.
5) Gerwyn Price - fourth in scoring, top five in the world, maybe not quite as red hot as he was twelve months ago but still in the world's elite.
6) Rob Cross - only the one spot behind Price in both the actual rankings and scoring, and yet still perhaps underrated.
7) Dave Chisnall - maybe had a bit of a quiet start to the year, but clearly in the top 16 in scoring, had a fantastic 2023, still looks more than competent.
10) Damon Heta - just on the outside looking in of the top ten in scoring, and still looking for that really big TV run to push to the next level, but I can't think of any format or metric that says he isn't a top 16 player at the very worst.
14) Chris Dobey - Premier League in 2023 did him a world of good, is in the top ten in scoring, really does feel like he's at the spot where it's just a case of him binking something bigger - be it a Euro Tour (that he still only has one final is insane) if not a major, he's getting into the business end on TV a lot now.
17) Stephen Bunting - his numbers are more or less identical to Ross Smith just above him in the rankings, but I'm putting him a tier up based on results - while I don't care about the Masters, he did win it, and the form at the back end of 2023 was undeniable and a ranked breakthrough seems more likely than not real soon.
20) Josh Rock - 2023 was not as explosive as 2022 was for sure, but he was not playing badly in the slightest, and a season of relative quiet is probably going to work out well for him. Still top 10 in scoring, bags of time on his side, he's rapidly gaining experience and a logical next step of a Euro Tour feels probable sooner rather than later.
24) Gary Anderson - still top of the world in scoring. That's all that needs to be said.
26) Luke Littler - obviously a top five player in the world, just needs time to get points on the board and for the rankings to correct themselves.

Safe, but not elite

9) Dimitri van den Bergh - similar to Wright, the scoring isn't there, actually scoring less than Wright in that sample, but it does look like he's turned a corner and, with the UK Open win, is heading back in the correct direction. It's not an obviously yes, but I can't think you can ever exclude him.
12) Danny Noppert - does have a recent win, scoring is outside the top 20 level, he's not really kicked on but he's nowhere near a point where he's not a top 32 player.
16) Ross Smith - statistically he's not too dissimilar to Dobey, but without the feeling that he's going to go and bink something big. Which, of course, he already has done, but while we all know he's good, he's still not someone that'd be on the dark horse list for a TV major for most people. But a clear top 32 player.
19) Ryan Searle - numbers very good, solidly inside the top 16. Early results in 2024 very promising. Putting him outside the 32 would be ridiculous but he does feel like a "well he could be the next to win a Euro Tour maybe" sort of player rather than a "he's a real contender for a TV title".
22) Martin Schindler - has just crept into the top 16 in the scoring rankings. Has just won a Euro Tour. Is still only 27. Now that the senior title monkey is off his back, he is surely only going to go in one direction with the added confidence he should now have.


8) Peter Wright - he's actually just outside the top 32 in scoring, so while I wanted to put him up a category, I'm not sure I can realistically do so, still shows up often enough at the right end of tournaments and has a major fairly recently so can't really exclude him.
11) Jonny Clayton - his game has really, really fallen off of late. Like Peter, he's outside the top 32 in scoring, but there's more than a dozen players that are between him and Wright, Clayton being on the wrong side of Wright. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt having got wins at the Euro Tour level and a major final in fairly recent history, but like Wright his best form might be permanently gone.
13) Dirk van Duijvenbode - is directly adjacent to Wright in the scoring charts. Has yet to properly regain the form he had in 2022 and early 2023, sadly down to injury, he may be over it now and may get back to binking titles, but results speak and he's in the marginal category until proven otherwise.
15) Joe Cullen - have mentioned Joe a few times in Euro Tour tips so far this year. What's he done recently? He got two major semis last year, so I think he's still in, but since then it's been really quiet and his numbers are pretty much splitting the difference between Wright and Clayton.
21) James Wade - numbers are pretty much on the top 32 borderline, but Wade often outperforms his numbers and the experience he has is undeniable, he's probably closer to being out than being in the top 16 for sure but finding 32 better players seems a stretch.
25) Krzysztof Ratajski - only real difference between him and Clemens is that Krzysztof has won a Euro Tour in the last twelve months, so is showing the ability to get results. Without that, I probably put him in the category below.
27) Daryl Gurney - ranking is in the mid 20's. Scoring is in the mid 20's. Has shown some occasional flashes and does have major title pedigree, is still young enough that he can rise back up the ranks for sure and just about holds a spot here.
30) Raymond van Barneveld - very much borderline, but has the same sort of scoring as Gurney has and has shown within the past month that he still has the ability to win titles, so a combination of just enough at both scoring and results is enough for me.

LOL nope

18) Andrew Gilding - this might seem harsh given that he won a major just over a year ago, but the numbers he's putting up are just not there, ranking outside the top 40, not really getting much of anything in terms of results, and we have seen his form tail off after a real purple patch at a UK Open before, except this time he's 53 and may not be able to get it back.
23) Gabriel Clemens - I can understand if you want to put him in the marginal spots, given he is just inside the top 32 in scoring, but he's really not kicked on from that worlds semi, decent Players Championship Finals run aside, and it doesn't feel like he's getting the results to justify a top 32 spot. He's only just outside, but outside for me.
28) Brendan Dolan - only really just about holding on in the top 32 thanks to that worlds quarters run. I can see an argument that he's just inside, the scoring would give some support to this, but I think that ranking money is just delaying the inevitable second slide outside the actual 32 given he's now into his 50's and does not feel like a player that has a title still in him.
29) Jose de Sousa - seems way too long since he's been a relevant player and is just one making up the numbers in the 32 at this stage. Not awful for sure, scoring has him around about the number 40 mark, but another one that's the wrong side of 50 and it's hard to make a case that he's going to be able to hold a spot after the next worlds.
31) Scott Williams - that worlds run was nice, but it's giving him maybe a little bit of an inflated ranking, with his scoring only just breaking 90, the last man on the charts to do so and the lowest player apart from Clayton on that metric. Still only in his mid 30's, he's got room to grow consistency in terms of results and his general level, but that's not 32 right now.
32) Ricardo Pietreczko - I could see an argument that he should be in the 32, but the numbers are more or less at Gilding's level and, outside of that Euro Tour win, I'm not sure he's put up enough consistent performances and results to warrant a top 32 spot. Yet - he is trending the right way but the ranking does seem a touch too high.

So there's six that I'm saying shouldn't be there, as such there should be six that should be in, right? Let's see:

Gian van Veen - still one of the hottest names in the sport, numbers aren't quite so red hot as they were say six to eight months ago, but it seems inevitable he'll win a senior title very soon.
Cameron Menzies - I think the secret's out on just how good he is, if he tidies up the occasional slack spot within matches and puts everything together throughout a tournament, there's no reason he can't win one right now.
Ryan Joyce - trending very much in the right direction, Pro Tour win at the back end of 2023, first major semi final soon after, numbers in the top 32, showing more frequent very good performances.
Mike de Decker - numbers still very strong, ranking safely inside the top 32, had a strong 2023 which saw a first breakthrough into the difficult TV majors, still under 30 and a lot of the inconsistency that was in his game a few years back looks to be getting ironed out and is showing the ability to beat the big names more frequently. Bit of work to do to secure a Matchplay return but could easily do it.
Jim Williams - now this one might be controversial given I'm not sure that he will ever play enough of the circuit to actually get up to where he should be in the rankings, but in terms of pure quality he is absolutely a top 32 player. Numbers are there, he's shown a big stage TV game, he's won a Pro Tour, let's hope he can turn a current provisional Grand Prix spot into an actual one.
Andy Baetens - alright, this might be regarded as a stretch and I won't disagree with anyone that says that, but we're dealing in the context of a complete seeding/ranking reset, so I think that would negate a lot of the adaptation that he's needing to do to the PDC tour, and the level of scores he's putting up is pretty much bang on the top 32 level. Pretty clearly the best player outside the PDC system in 2023, I do think he's that good and at just 35, he's got more than enough time to turn that into reality.

Expect me back tomorrow with thoughts on the next Euro Tour once the draw is out, I'm not sure what time though and it might be a brief post with things I might be doing tomorrow.