Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Rapid WC thoughts

Just going to scroll down the draw and give thoughts:

- Good draw for Edhouse. Will be one and done, but that'll put him above Mansell and he'll lose his card as a result.
- Beaton/Sherrock will be an interesting crowd reaction. Price/Sherrock, if she gets that far (she should beat Steve, Huybrechts she'd probably be a small dog) would be really interesting.
- That's a pretty awful draw for Jeff Smith. Ross against Bunting would be a tough one to call.
- Wattimena/Koltsov could go either way. Jermaine's not exactly in red hot form and Boris has been fairly quiet this year. DvD can't complain about this draw.
- Not a bad draw for Lewy Williams really. I don't know too much about Shibata, and Clemens can certainly be beaten.
- Smith/Meulenkamp/Ashton seems routine, while O'Connor against Lauby could be spicy with the winner getting an extremely winnable second round opponent in Durrant.
- Kuivenhoven's got a good chance to climb the rankings here. That's not a bad opponent and if he's on his game then he might give Wade a few problems.
- Hunt/Krcmar is a potential contender for tie of the round. Boris looked really good yesterday, while Adam hasn't really kicked on after a very nice 2020, Vincent in round two isn't that tough of an ask for either of them.
- Evetts and Williams might go all the way, would find it hard to pick a winner. Cullen ought not to have too much trouble though.
- Kleermaker can't complain with getting John Michael. John can occasionally hit a decent leg, but sustaining anything over a five set match against a competent opponent seems too much. Whitlock would probably be a coinflip.
- Hempel against Schindler? Fuck right off. Then the winner gets Dimitri to add insult to injury. Probably the clear tie of round one.
- Hughes has got to be fairly happy with getting Smith and then Petersen. Should allow him to set a platform to climb back up towards the top 32 following the Prague win drop off.
- Lennon/Razma might be a sneakily good tie. Depends which Madars turns up, he still is a bit too up and down. Ratajski should be too solid for either though.
- Can't help but think Benecky might be a bit out of his depth against Joyce. Shame this isn't Sedlacek, as that might be a bit more competitive, and that'd mean he wouldn't need to go back to Q-School.
- Meikle/Schmutzler is going to be interesting. No idea how Fabian will do on a big stage, and Meikle's hitting form just at the right time. Wright in round two is obviously going to be tough, but nicking a set wouldn't be out of the question.
- Woodhouse/Wilson won't be a bad game. James, as mentioned below, is playing sneakily good darts, Luke hasn't really progressed as he would have like but still has a good game. Heta should handle either but neither would be drawing dead.
- Borland and Brooks is going to be a tricky one to call, William's steadily competent and Bradley has got a lot better in recent months. Searle should wipe the floor with either though.
- Interested to see what Jason Heaver can do in a longer form game. Probably the real surprise of the Pro Tour field. Similar with Rodriguez, that qualifier wasn't easy and had a lot of known games, so he shouldn't be a mug at all. Noppert won't hate the draw though.
- Lowe/Larsson doesn't seem overly inspriring, and the next round against de Sousa seems the same.
- Soutar will be fairly happy with drawing Portela, whose Challenge Tour performances haven't been great, and I don't think he'll hate having drawn Suljovic, who, after looking like he'd turned a corner in recent months, dropped an absolute stinker at Minehead.
- Murnan against Lim is going to be intriguing. Joe was red hot early in the season but has slid back a bit, while Paul is Paul. Aspinall shouldn't be too worried whoever he gets.
- Rydz might be the one player in the first round draw everyone wanted to avoid, cannot see Yamada repeating what he did two years ago and making round two. Dolan against Rydz is going to be too close to call.
- Barstow, Norman and van Gerwen doesn't excite me in the slightest.
- However, should Rusty get past Ben Robb which I think he will, him against Dobey could be explosive.
- Labanauskas ought to handle Losper (assuming there's no restriction bullshit given where he's going to be flying from) and with Chisnall having indifferent form in 2021, might be a sneaky pick to reach round 3.
- Rowby, Kenny, Humphries seems a bit of a dull section. Should be a straightforward Rodriguez then Luke.
- Lewis/Campbell isn't a bad tie. Adie ought to take it but we know Matt can cause lots of players trouble. A possible world final rematch against Gary Anderson would be a highlight of round two for sure.
- Mitchell against Landman has a real old school BDO feel about it. Scott's done well this year but Chris obviously has the talent to trouble him having come through probably the toughest qualifier there is. Ian White might be given some problems in round two, but I'd back him to solve them.
- Barney against Ilagan is going to be fun. The question is how much decent match practice Lourence will have been able to get. Cross in round two can't be particularly pleased with how this draw turned out.
- Finally, Evans against Kumar could be anything. We don't know where Nitin's game is really at, and we do know that Ricky's game is a fair bit off where it could be. Daryl Gurney is going to be liking things whichever way they turn out.

Monday, 29 November 2021

Pre-worlds FRH rankings

Congrats to Peter, solid final performance to get over the line, pity for Ryan but that performance (and the prize money) is going to push him well up towards the top sixteen and should set him up very nicely for 2022.

Tour card holder just started, Krcmar throwing some filth, picked out Wilson, Kcuik and Waites as who I thought would get through but Boris was certainly very much on the radar and will take some stopping playing like that. Sedlacek already down unfortunately.

So, new FRH rankings:

1 Gerwyn Price
2 Peter Wright
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 James Wade
5 Jonny Clayton
6 Jose de Sousa
7 Rob Cross
8 Dimitri van den Bergh
9 Gary Anderson (UP 1)
10 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
11 Krzysztof Ratajski
12 Joe Cullen
13 Ryan Searle (UP 6)
14 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
15 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
16 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
17 Stephen Bunting (DOWN 1)
18 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)
19 Brendan Dolan (NEW)
20 Luke Humphries (DOWN 2)

Outside of Searle's obvious huge jump, the only chances are that Ando's now about 1250 points ahead of Smith on account of getting a round further (both are within 10k of Dimitri so all of 8-10 are very close), while Dolan's semi gets him back into the top 20 after hovering in the lower ends of the top 32 for quite some time following his return to form in the past years, well deserved. King is the player to drop out but remains 21st. Lower down, plenty of players in that lower end of the top 32 went out first round or were one and done, so Gurney jumps back up to 23, Heta's in the top 25, van dee Voort was in the top 30 anyway and a bit of a gap from 30th upwards means he only actually climbed the one place, while O'Connor is back in the top 40. None of these rankings include worlds money but these are all seeded so nothing would change.

That marks the end of another betting season as well - it is by far the lowest volume season entirely down to the lack of the European Tour, but in terms of ROI it is easily the best. I'm in two minds whether that is a good thing - I've noticed in a lot of places the lines simply seem to be closer to where I'm projecting, but I do wonder if I am being too cautious with some marginal plays and whether I should go for more volume, take a lower ROI but make more money because we're putting more in play. I suppose what I could always do is just lower the betting sizes more often than I do and use the 0.1 unit, which I normally only consider on long shot punts, on marginal plays. It's not going to make much, but it's kind of the opposite of what I do when there is a large odds-on favourite who is being undervalued.

Will also list you the top 32 players I have in my rankings this season on basis of overall turn-based average in order. Removing anyone with less than 100 legs. It's van Gerwen, Price, Wright, de Sousa, Clayton, Dobey, Ratajski, van den Bergh - Noppert, van Duijvenbode, M Smith, Cross, Aspinall, Searle, Heta, Humphries - Schindler, Dolan, Cullen, Wade, van Barneveld, R Smith, Rydz, Chisnall - White, Gurney, King, Anderson, Soutar, Wilson, Lewis, Hempel. Whose inclusion/exclusion surprises you?

Saturday, 27 November 2021

PC quarters

Hope people were able to get the Searle tip in time, that mitigated somewhat of the damage of a fairly poor second round, Heta cruised in and I really should have thought about going heavier, but that would have been somewhat rash so no issues there. Looking back at what I did go for, Lewis had the darts in the decider so I'm fine with that, Meikle just forgot how to score, Schinder I don't think we can fault, Gerwyn just put in an unplayable performance, Barney just missed a couple of tiny chances in a close game. No regrets with the process, but looking at the three players in round two that I was marginal on as to whether to fire (Cross, Gurney, Noppert), they all won, so maybe I'm being a bit overly cautious in recommending plays. Maybe something to go back on and revisit, although I'm probably just going back in words and unless I've quoted the percentage my model has, the actual odds at the time and the reasoning as to why I didn't go for it, it may just end up being a whole bunch of noise.

Four quarters and we've got a few interesting names in there right now, including arguably the two best players running into each other.

Gurney/Searle - I've actually been pretty impressed with Daryl to be honest. He's needed a run and he's played extremely competently, and if Searle puts together a bit of an iffy display like he did in the first two rounds (not so much against Cross, he was fine in that one), he might not get away with it. I think 60/40 Searle, the market has it a touch closer which given how they have played this week, seems fine. Certainly not enough edge to be jumping on Ryan.

Clayton/van der Voort - Jonny got pushed all the way by Luke Humphries and survived multiple match darts after summarily dismissing Mitchell, while Vincent was a train against Noppert, every single leg he won being in five visits, which followed up a nervy encounter against Boulton which could have gone either way. This might be a step too far for Vinny, I've got it 70/30 which is actually slightly closer than the market which is saying 3/1 on VVDV, so definitely don't just lump on Clayton thinking that it's value. Not going to recommend the other way, although if it drifts to 7/2 or greater I wouldn't hate a tiny stab.

de Sousa/Dolan - Jose probably should have lost against Darius, the Lithuanian ace had six from 164 and could only generate one match dart which he obviously missed, and he wasn't particularly on top form against O'Connor either, so maybe it's not quite there for de Sousa, although he won't be complaining. Brendan got the scalp of Price, mostly just taking advantage of a dumpster fire section of legs to get him the edge then holding out, having earlier easily despatched Ritchie Edhouse. Market has this really close rating Brendan at better than 60/40, which seems a touch of an overreaction and nearly cause to go the other way and take de Sousa, who I am seeing as having better than two in three chances, but only just. I would probably jump all over 4/6, it's very marginal.

van Gerwen/Wright - Mentioned the MvG/RvB game, he was fine, he wasn't at his best against Gary and he seems to have been having a bit of a cry about the conditions, it is what it is and it's the same for both players. It'll look like sour grapes, but bitch about it after you've lost, don't give your opponent ammunition, Peter doesn't exactly need it. He was consistent enough against Heta to not let an early 3-0 lead escalate much further and he clawed it back after getting away with one against Adie. I'm going to go with the 0.25u Wright 9/5 which is available on Betfair, I think he's got around a 42% chance and with MvG's mindset seemingly not being there, I think it's worth pushing the boat out on this one.

That's your lot - I'm at the Blades game tomorrow so I very much doubt I get any tips up for the semis and finals. Be back probably Monday for FRH rankings and then instant worlds draw reactions.

Only last 16 tip

Taking the 7/5 that you can get on Unibet on Ryan Searle against Cross, that's it

Round 2 tips

Let's blast through these quickly:

Boulton/van der Voort - Line looks perfectly fine. Andy probably looked slightly better and he has the consistency edge, but 6/5 with a 44% chance, no thanks.

Rydz/Wade - Think the market's just about adapted enough to how good Callan is at this stage. 11/8 still doesn't look quite short enough, but it's short enough that we can't punt. Extremely live dog, but he'd need to be the favourite before we start really thinking about 11/8 as value. Concern that Callan wasn't tested yesterday, but then again James wasn't either.

Cross/Aspinall - Hmm, the market has it even? Can we go with Cross? It's really, really close. If we could see evens and it was a vigless market then I'd probably go with it. Both played solid and weren't really pressured yesterday, both are trending up after mediocre first halves of the season. Will pass and probably regret it.

Searle/Joyce - Market's got Searle as close to a 2/1 favourite. I've got him slightly more, not enough to seriously consider. Searle was merely competent and likely a bit lucky to advance, albeit Whitlock wasn't great, Joyce was probably slightly better. Can pass this one.

Smith/Gurney - Michael didn't really need to get out of second gear to beat Borland, seem to remember William missed a few doubles that could have made it more interesting. Gurney was fine against Soots, albeit lacking in fifteen darters a touch. Seems about 65/35 in the market, I think we can at least think about Gurney here who has course and distance. If he'd shown something a bit more yesterday and/or had better recent form relative to Smith I'd have thought about it more.

Meikle/Anderson - Game of the year contender that one of Ryan's yesterday. Real pressure to retain his card and he gets home. Gary really should have been out but for finding his game just in time, coupled with Bunting collapsing a bit. 0.25u Meikle 11/5, there is a big consistency issue but that's a huge price when the projections give it as it is with Meikle near to level, especially having just hit the performance of his life to add huge relief in terms of tour card retention chances.

Dolan/Edhouse - Big scalp for Ritchie to dump Chizzy out, didn't play great and Dave really should have got some breaks but couldn't manage it. Brendan looked extremely solid in putting out Chas Barstow and enters as better than a 1/2 favourite. This does seem like a two in three match for Brendan so the line is close enough to not bet.

Wright/Lewis - Peter was pushed real hard by Keane Barry and on another day he could easily have gone out, Adie was getting some plaudits for his performance against Huybrechts, which was a bit better than he has been playing of late, but he was kind of bailed by a couple of big outs with Kim waiting. Adie seems live enough in this one to take a shot, 0.25u Lewis 9/4, he's just over 40% as I see it so we'll take the stab.

Heta/Clemens - Gabriel was looking very comfortable early against Beaton but got dragged into a decider, while Damon was fine against Lennon without ever really hitting the heights he can do. Why this is so close in the market I have no idea, 0.25u Heta 3/4, he should be a lot closer to 1/2 really.

van Gerwen/Barneveld - Michael did what he needed to against Kevin Doets, steady five visit kills doing the job. Barney looked the best he's done for a while in seeing off the decent challenge that was Maik Kuivenhoven. Do I want to take 3/1? I think I'll go small, 0.1u van Barneveld 3/1, if he'd looked iffy in the first round and scraped through I'd probably decline but there's enough projection edge coupled with a good first round win to want to punt it.

Price/Schindler - Gerwyn looked bloody ordinary against Jason Lowe who, if he'd pinned some chances he had, could easily have been here. Martin dumped Ian White out with a good performance. This is a trivial small punt at the line it is, 0.1u Schindler 7/2, he won this one literally last week.

Smith/Humphries - I wouldn't mind watching this one, this should be dynamite. Smith looked fantastic in eliminating Rusty, while Luke needed to come from behind against Jason Heaver but got the job done in the end with a much better second half of the game. Market thinks it's close with Luke having the slightly better chances, that seems close enough to my opinion as well.

Clayton/Mitchell - Scott was first on yesterday, Jonny last. Nice fair scheduling from the PDC there. Scott was pushed all the way by Kleermaker, only really having the three terrible legs and looking very competent outside of those. Fortunately he won the last one. Clayton didn't look great against Tabern and was another big Welsh name who could have been out if his opponent had taken the chances presented to him. Jonny's probably a little bit too short in the market but I'd need more than 10/3 before I'd start thinking about a Scotty Dog flier. Call me when it's 4/1.

O'Connor/Ratajski - Willie survived a match dart against Chris Dobey in a high quality affair, while Krzysztof had close to a free win against Meulenkamp. If Willie repeats his form from yesterday then he's in with a chance but being just longer than 2/1 appears a fair assessment.

van den Bergh/Noppert - Dimitri and Danny both had wins that could probably be described as routine, Madars put up a little bit of resistance from 4-1 with the pressure off, Rowby also nicked a couple of legs after going down huge but these were more gifts from Noppert really. Danny is 6/4 which is in the ballpark of thinking about the punt, but his recent decent TV performances have kind of derailed the Noppert value train.

de Sousa/Labanauskas - Darius was excellent in dropping Mervyn King out who wasn't playing badly at all, another great game from board two that I'll need to catch up on. Jose kind of let Petersen back into the game from a won position but did get over the line yesterday, will need to be a bit more clinical today but he almost certainly will be. Jose being close to a 1/3 favourite appears perfectly correct to me.

So that's it. Two long small punt fliers, two standard dog plays and then Damon as a small favourite which should be larger.

Friday, 26 November 2021

Players Championship Saturday

I will post the bets in the morning, I would imagine that lines are out already but will wait until then until they're all going to be there for sure. Will post percentages for the second round as well as conditional lines for the last sixteen given I may not be able to update before then in the event I go to a match tomorrow. Decent enough series today, picked up half a unit which would have been more if Dobey hadn't missed a match dart (and especially if Beaton could have found a twelve in the decider from nowhere). Rusty and Jermaine didn't really do much but we expect that to happen a fair bit of the time. Let's go:

de Sousa - 71% Labanauskas, 80% O'Connor, 59% Ratajski
Labanauskas - 29% de Sousa, 56% O'Connor, 30% Ratajski
O'Connor - 31% Ratajski, 20% de Sousa, 44% Labanauskas
Ratajski - 69% O'Connor, 41% de Sousa, 70% Labanauskas

Price - 68% Schindler, 75% Dolan, 88% Edhouse
Schindler - 32% Price, 52% Dolan, 71% Edhouse
Dolan - 66% Edhouse, 25% Price, 48% Schindler
Edhouse - 34% Dolan, 12% Price, 29% Schindler

Smith - 56% Gurney, 60% Rydz, 56% Wade
Gurney - 44% Smith, 52% Rydz, 49% Wade
Rydz - 47% Wade, 40% Smith, 48% Gurney
Wade - 53% Rydz, 44% Smith, 51% Gurney

Searle - 69% Joyce, 58% Cross, 52% Aspinall
Joyce - 31% Searle, 32% Cross, 26% Aspinall
Cross - 43% Aspinall, 42% Searle, 68% Joyce
Aspinall - 57% Cross, 48% Searle, 74% Joyce

Wright - 59% Lewis, 59% Heta, 76% Clemens
Lewis - 41% Wright, 47% Heta, 65% Clemens
Heta - 65% Clemens, 41% Wright, 53% Lewis
Clemens - 35% Heta, 24% Wright, 35% Lewis

van Gerwen - 66% van Barneveld, 80% Meikle, 77% Anderson
van Barneveld - 34% van Gerwen, 61% Meikle, 58% Anderson
Meikle - 48% Anderson, 20% van Gerwen, 39% van Barneveld
Anderson - 52% Meikle, 23% van Gerwen, 42% van Barneveld

Clayton - 71% Mitchell, 62% Smith, 68% Humphries
Mitchell - 29% Clayton, 33% Smith, 41% Humphries
Smith - 56% Humphries, 38% Clayton, 67% Mitchell
Humphries - 44% Smith, 32% Clayton, 59% Mitchell

Boulton - 44% van der Voort, 21% van den Bergh, 24% Noppert
van der Voort - 56% Boulton, 27% van den Bergh, 32% Noppert
van den Bergh - 54% Noppert, 79% Boulton, 73% van der Voort
Noppert - 46% van den Bergh, 76% Boulton, 68% van der Voort

Thursday, 25 November 2021

PC Finals tips - section four

Let's get this done

Clayton/Tabern - What Jonny's done this season is phenomenal, lifting himself into the top 5 players in the world by whatever metric you want to use. As such, he's rightly a prohibitive favourite against Tabern, who's one of the last players in the field with less than a 20% chance of winning this one. 2/11 Clayton seems fine, actually a tiny arb as a lot of bookies have him much shorter.

Mitchell/Kleermaker - Scott's done well to get into the top half of the seeds for this, multiple early quarter finals being a pretty nice haul for the veteran, who comes up against Kleermaker, who did make it all the way to a final earlier in the season which helped him to make the Grand Prix. Market looks good to me, Scott's a tiny favourite whichever way you look at it, might actually be a touch underrated with Martijn having some consistency issues.

Smith/Rodriguez - Ross against Rusty to avoid any doubt, Smudger's managed a first bink this season as well as another final to end in the top 16 seeds for the season. Rusty's one of a few players who have come from the Q-School top up spots to really make a mark, and will be a dangerous opponent. Market has Ross as a surprisingly short favourite at 1/3, while I think Rusty has 35% so we'll take a stab, 0.25u Rodriguez 13/5, he even has the consistency advantage.

Humprhies/Heaver - Luke's continued to grow his game, making a major final, still waiting for a first bink though. Jason's had a very solid first season on the PDC tour without really making any headlines, one semi final as well as multiple board wins getting him here which I think he'll be happy with. Luke's going to be the big favourite here and the market's not giving Jason more than a 25% shot, maybe that's slightly harsh but we're not going to bet against Humphries here. Sub-89 scoring isn't going to cut it often enough for my liking.

Cullen/Boulton - Joe continues to play well, getting slightly deeper into big comps, getting a bink, but yet to make that huge breakthrough that's going to push him much higher than the lower reaches of the top 16. Andy has not had a bad season at all and is playing well enough that he should take this a little bit more than one in three, but has just been a bit unfortunate with results outside of one semi and he is currently not in the worlds - but should be among the favourites for the PDPA qualifier. Market is overrating Cullen enough that we can punt, 0.25u Boulton 12/5, 37% when he only needs to win 30% to break even looks alright to me.

van der Voort/Klaasen - Fuck the rules that's taken Hughes out of this one. Still, it's a backdoor out for Jelle who needs some sort of result over the next week to have a chance of saving his card, and a win here against Vincent would help. VVDV has one semi this season but is more a consistent board winner, accumulating more than anything. Jelle's actually quite close in the projections, it's 55/45 to Vincent, who's 4/6 in the market, so not really enough value to punt on Klaasen.

van den Bergh/Razma - Dimitri will be looking to get some results here after having been screwed out of the Grand Slam, which won't cost him worlds seeding but it's a chance to bink another major and as someone playing at a level who can do that, it's got to sting. Madars has been alright, but not at Dimitri's level and it's really not close. 80/20 Dimitri for me, bookies have it slightly closer but not quite enough to start betting on the Belgian.

Noppert/Rodriguez - Final game gives us Danny, who had a big Grand Prix run which has lost much of the value that he offered in our Circle of Betting Trust, and Rowby, who like his brother has been taking great advantage of backup chances given and really making an impression on the tour. Danny should be comfortable here, and should win this more than 60% - market thinks a bit more than that, but not enough disparity to go on Rowby really.

So that's the lot, another two bets to add, good luck everyone.