Afternoon, been having a look at the last sixteen and nothing stands out as great value. Chizzy probably safe but 1/7 isn't enticing really, Duzza at 4/5 maybe, it seems a bit of an overreaction to how well Clemens is playing, but we know he's very solid. The other two games today are priced very closely and appear correct, maybe tiny value on Smith?
Tomorrow, Wade, Price and Anderson all look to be around the correct ball park as favourites. That just leaves MvG against White. Now, by all accounts we should bet White, but are we really going to take White in a TV event where getting a win makes an "I can win a TV event" statement? I don't know about that as a good idea. Watch him win and then lose in the quarters...
Wednesday, 13 November 2019
Tuesday, 12 November 2019
Grand Slam day 4
Only the one tip I really like, and that's 0.25u Lewis 8/11 against Williams, I know that Jim's probably underrated because BDO and Lewis isn't the force he used to be, but that seems a bit too close to me
Finally got into Vegas about four hours ago, the room's mint, pretty much bigger than my house, will have to see if the TV in here can pick up the darts somehow...
Finally got into Vegas about four hours ago, the room's mint, pretty much bigger than my house, will have to see if the TV in here can pick up the darts somehow...
Monday, 11 November 2019
Grand Slam day 3
Oh cool, Chicago's had snow. Time to leave before it drops to minus double figures, but before then, what do I like today?
0.1u Schindler 3/1, picking a dead rubber is dangerous but I don't think Martin should be that price, and he can play with a bit more freedom and tune up for the Superleague finals to try to get into the worlds.
0.25u Dolan 19/10, this is probably just now Gurney non belief, but Dolan has been playing well enough for some time to get this done well more than one in three and isn't going to be affected by for all intents and purposes a knockout game
That's it, Noppert and Warren are kind of tempting, Warren especially, although as Wayne can't actually qualify he might have switched off.
Looks like Lerchbacher made it back to Ally Pally, nice to see.
0.1u Schindler 3/1, picking a dead rubber is dangerous but I don't think Martin should be that price, and he can play with a bit more freedom and tune up for the Superleague finals to try to get into the worlds.
0.25u Dolan 19/10, this is probably just now Gurney non belief, but Dolan has been playing well enough for some time to get this done well more than one in three and isn't going to be affected by for all intents and purposes a knockout game
That's it, Noppert and Warren are kind of tempting, Warren especially, although as Wayne can't actually qualify he might have switched off.
Looks like Lerchbacher made it back to Ally Pally, nice to see.
Sunday, 10 November 2019
Grand Slam day two bet
Not really caught up with yesterday yet, but on a brief scan things didn't go great, only thing I really like today is 0.1u Lewis 9/2 vs van Gerwen, seems like the usual punt against MvG play, if you don't think Lewis has the quality to get there one in five then that's an interesting take
Seems as if Cody Harris couldn't play the New Zealand qualifier. Who knew.
Friday, 8 November 2019
Quick European Tour post
Landed in the USA, where I assume I've instantly got into the top 100 players, and while I wait for the pubs to open while my body clock thinks it's closing time, I see that they've announced the remainder of the European Tour.
It's pretty good - they've started off in Belgium, which is a country I've advocated for in previous posts - and they're ending back in Prague, which I also think makes a lot of sense. It seemed to go down well, with Gawlas doing good things over the last couple of months perhaps they can utilise him (as well as Sedlacek and others obv) to help really grow interest, and additionally, I think you've got to look at giving somewhere a two year run. Unless a first year is a complete failure, then you have one to spark the interest and see how the follow up goes. We're in a crowded enough calendar as it is, do I think unless something really explodes you're probably looking at a max two year run anyway before coming back later, but at least if you do that you can say you did put in the effort to get it off the ground.
It's pretty good - they've started off in Belgium, which is a country I've advocated for in previous posts - and they're ending back in Prague, which I also think makes a lot of sense. It seemed to go down well, with Gawlas doing good things over the last couple of months perhaps they can utilise him (as well as Sedlacek and others obv) to help really grow interest, and additionally, I think you've got to look at giving somewhere a two year run. Unless a first year is a complete failure, then you have one to spark the interest and see how the follow up goes. We're in a crowded enough calendar as it is, do I think unless something really explodes you're probably looking at a max two year run anyway before coming back later, but at least if you do that you can say you did put in the effort to get it off the ground.
Thursday, 7 November 2019
Oddschecker works in international waters at least
Didn't get time to put together the chances matrix I wanted to last night, just ran out of time, so I'll look at game one of the group stages and see what I think while on a boat somewhere in the Irish Sea, hopefully heading in the direction of Dublin:
Aspinall/Schindler - nothing here. It's priced as Nathan having a two in three shot, which feels about right, as mentioned in the preview, Martin is very good this year, he may even outperform this line.
Noppert/Harrington - 0.25u Noppert 8/15, now this one feels a bit more one sided, Danny has been undervalued all year and I'm simply not convinced Harrington can win this one in three. As a bonus, Danny did make a TV final last weekend so the stage game has to be there
Dolan/Clemens - no bet. It's more or less a flip, Clemens being slightly favoured against the Irishman, 11/10 seems a tempter but this appears close however you look at it.
Chisnall/Hughes - no bet, market has it slightly more than 60/40 in Chizzy's favour, earlier on in the year this'd be bet Jamie and print, but of late it appears to be somewhat more accurate.
Gurney/Veenstra - no bet, was hoping this would be a bit more of a one sided line, but we can't even get 5/2 on Richard.
Wright/Warren - no bet, it's a shame that we didn't have more data on Wayne, as 7/2 is a big number in a race to five, but it's hard to extrapolate and go against someone who's both clearly better and has been hitting peaks of late.
Cross/Ashton - 12/1 lol
Smith/Durrant - nothing on this one, market can't split the pair which appears ok
Webster/O'Connor - same line as above, don't want to even think about punting on either given their respective form with neither being odds against.
Price/Suzuki - 12/1 lol
White/Lennon - half tempted to stab at Lennon here given a 2/1 line and White's indifferent TV form, but surely Ian can pull through here. If Steve had a few better results of any kind I would probably shoot
Anderson/Parletti - 0.1u Parletti 23/10, this is just on the chance that Gary seriously isn't right and plays like he did last weekend
Wade/Harms - 0.25u Wade 1/2, I've not seen enough play out of Harms that makes me think he can take down someone with Wade's solidity more than one in three.
van Gerwen/Williams - there's plenty of people I'd take at 5/1 in a race this short against MvG but Jim ain't one of them.
Lewis/Smith - sign of the times that Smith is shorter than 5/4, this feels like a close tie and is priced accordingly
van den Bergh/Thornton - 0.25u van den Bergh 4/7, I really don't think that Robert has shown the form this year to take down the maturing Belgian often enough that this is bad.
Aspinall/Schindler - nothing here. It's priced as Nathan having a two in three shot, which feels about right, as mentioned in the preview, Martin is very good this year, he may even outperform this line.
Noppert/Harrington - 0.25u Noppert 8/15, now this one feels a bit more one sided, Danny has been undervalued all year and I'm simply not convinced Harrington can win this one in three. As a bonus, Danny did make a TV final last weekend so the stage game has to be there
Dolan/Clemens - no bet. It's more or less a flip, Clemens being slightly favoured against the Irishman, 11/10 seems a tempter but this appears close however you look at it.
Chisnall/Hughes - no bet, market has it slightly more than 60/40 in Chizzy's favour, earlier on in the year this'd be bet Jamie and print, but of late it appears to be somewhat more accurate.
Gurney/Veenstra - no bet, was hoping this would be a bit more of a one sided line, but we can't even get 5/2 on Richard.
Wright/Warren - no bet, it's a shame that we didn't have more data on Wayne, as 7/2 is a big number in a race to five, but it's hard to extrapolate and go against someone who's both clearly better and has been hitting peaks of late.
Cross/Ashton - 12/1 lol
Smith/Durrant - nothing on this one, market can't split the pair which appears ok
Webster/O'Connor - same line as above, don't want to even think about punting on either given their respective form with neither being odds against.
Price/Suzuki - 12/1 lol
White/Lennon - half tempted to stab at Lennon here given a 2/1 line and White's indifferent TV form, but surely Ian can pull through here. If Steve had a few better results of any kind I would probably shoot
Anderson/Parletti - 0.1u Parletti 23/10, this is just on the chance that Gary seriously isn't right and plays like he did last weekend
Wade/Harms - 0.25u Wade 1/2, I've not seen enough play out of Harms that makes me think he can take down someone with Wade's solidity more than one in three.
van Gerwen/Williams - there's plenty of people I'd take at 5/1 in a race this short against MvG but Jim ain't one of them.
Lewis/Smith - sign of the times that Smith is shorter than 5/4, this feels like a close tie and is priced accordingly
van den Bergh/Thornton - 0.25u van den Bergh 4/7, I really don't think that Robert has shown the form this year to take down the maturing Belgian often enough that this is bad.
Wednesday, 6 November 2019
Grand Slam draws
Quick thoughts - I plan on shoving all the group games and likely second round/quarter final games through the master computer, but won't go beyond that, I'm on holiday without access to the master computer after today so that'll have to do, but for now, the groups:
van Gerwen/Lewis/Smith/Williams - Only really looks to be one winner, or does there? Smith's beaten van Gerwen not too long ago, Lewis is certainly capable, can Jim Williams cause upsets? It's not too outlandish to think that someone might nick a game from MvG, Clayton did it last year after all, but two seems a bit steep, so it's three playing for one spot. Filtering year long (counting Lakeside), Lewis and Smith are within a point of each other on the averages, and the market seemed to have them close, Williams has 160 legs of data and is about a point and a half behind those two, which isn't insurmountable. Have to think that Lewis/Smith is a decider for second place, but wouldn't count on it for sure.
Wade/White/Lennon/Harms - This looks like a real two horse race though. White's top five in points per turn this year, Wade's just outside the top ten, whereas Lennon is putting up a respectable points per turn score just in the 90's, it's a clear two points behind the big guns. Harms will be looking to repeat his last sixteen performance from last year, but it seems unlikely, he's a further couple of points per turn behind Lennon, albeit on short data, so I'm not feeling overly confident about his chances.
Price/van den Bergh/Thornton/Suzuki - The defending champ's got to feel fairly happy with his draw. He's the clear class of this group, Dimitri is nearly four points per turn behind him season long, although we know if the Belgian turns up he can give anyone a run for their money, Thornton is down below 88 a turn for the year, beneath the likes of Benito van de Pas, but if he can get his game clicking then who knows. That leaves the great unknown in the women's world champ - if she plays like she did in the world final, then a shock could be on the cards, but an overall conventional average on the Asian tour of below 80 isn't confidence inspiring. It's a fascinating wild card in any case.
Anderson/Webster/O'Connor/Parletti - Hmm. This one isn't too pretty. Anderson, if healthy, walks the group, but he looked like complete arse against Noppert last weekend. Webster's been poor all year and is a point and a half behind O'Connor, but as we alluded to in the European Championship preview, has dropped off the pace a lot in recent months. So there's definitely a shot for Parletti, although any time we have seen him on TV he has struggled mightily, his Lakeside last year was one to forget, so while he's got a decent draw, can he gain some stage form in time to do anything with it?
Cross/Chisnall/Hughes/Ashton - Jesus christ, this is tough. It's a lot easier than it might have been if this took place six months ago when Jamie was in red hot form, but then again, Chisnall's form has increased to counterbalance it. Cross is the clear class of the field but lost to Chisnall literally last weekend. I think what Hughes does is key, if he turns up then it's going to be incredibly tight between the top three. God knows what to make of Lisa Ashton here, her scoring on the Challenge Tour is a couple of points better than what Suzuki was doing on the Asian Tour, but likely inflated by playing mostly better players, still, low 80's probably isn't going to cut the mustard in what's a draw from hell.
Wright/Noppert/Harrington/Warren - Nice draw for Peter this. Danny Noppert got in really late, and while we've stated on numerous occasions he's been playing better than his results have suggested, it's still a good three points worse than what Wright's been managing over the course of the year. Harrington's down at an 85 per turn clip for the season and ought not to trouble either of the other two PDC players, and probably ought to be an underdog to Warren as well, who's generally looked alright when we've seen him on TV in short samples, although not really getting the results. Still, he's got to have been doing well enough off stage to get here, maybe he can trouble Danny and steal second?
Gurney/Dolan/Clemens/Veenstra - This one looks very even. Gurney's the stand out name, but his scoring per turn really isn't spectacular, at least in comparison to his results and general level of recognition. The big German's less than a fifth of a point per turn behind him over the course of the season. Dolan over the course of the last year, and especially the last six months, has had a real return to form and cannot be counted out against either of these two, he's close enough to Gurney that all three players are separated by less than a point a turn. This leaves Dutch Open winner Veenstra, who I think is going to be outgunned a bit too easily here, but over a short race then maybe he can hold his own, his scoring's unimpressive but he's held it together in match situations quite well, and if he can at least hold his own in the opening game, maybe he can grow into the tournament from there.
Smith/Aspinall/Schindler/Durrant - Whichever group got Glen was always going to be a group of death, but this looks pretty nasty full stop. Over the course of the season in points per turn, Durrant is 7th, Smith 12th, Aspinall 15th and Schindler 26th - if you go back a few posts, you'll see that, outside of Cadby, Schindler's scoring more than anyone who isn't already qualified for the World Championship. All of these are scoring more than 91 per turn over the course of the year, with the bigger three names all over 92. It's a really intriguing group, between the main three it's too close to call, but to write Schindler out of this is severely underestimating how well he has been playing.
Quick game by game summary and bets later tonight.
van Gerwen/Lewis/Smith/Williams - Only really looks to be one winner, or does there? Smith's beaten van Gerwen not too long ago, Lewis is certainly capable, can Jim Williams cause upsets? It's not too outlandish to think that someone might nick a game from MvG, Clayton did it last year after all, but two seems a bit steep, so it's three playing for one spot. Filtering year long (counting Lakeside), Lewis and Smith are within a point of each other on the averages, and the market seemed to have them close, Williams has 160 legs of data and is about a point and a half behind those two, which isn't insurmountable. Have to think that Lewis/Smith is a decider for second place, but wouldn't count on it for sure.
Wade/White/Lennon/Harms - This looks like a real two horse race though. White's top five in points per turn this year, Wade's just outside the top ten, whereas Lennon is putting up a respectable points per turn score just in the 90's, it's a clear two points behind the big guns. Harms will be looking to repeat his last sixteen performance from last year, but it seems unlikely, he's a further couple of points per turn behind Lennon, albeit on short data, so I'm not feeling overly confident about his chances.
Price/van den Bergh/Thornton/Suzuki - The defending champ's got to feel fairly happy with his draw. He's the clear class of this group, Dimitri is nearly four points per turn behind him season long, although we know if the Belgian turns up he can give anyone a run for their money, Thornton is down below 88 a turn for the year, beneath the likes of Benito van de Pas, but if he can get his game clicking then who knows. That leaves the great unknown in the women's world champ - if she plays like she did in the world final, then a shock could be on the cards, but an overall conventional average on the Asian tour of below 80 isn't confidence inspiring. It's a fascinating wild card in any case.
Anderson/Webster/O'Connor/Parletti - Hmm. This one isn't too pretty. Anderson, if healthy, walks the group, but he looked like complete arse against Noppert last weekend. Webster's been poor all year and is a point and a half behind O'Connor, but as we alluded to in the European Championship preview, has dropped off the pace a lot in recent months. So there's definitely a shot for Parletti, although any time we have seen him on TV he has struggled mightily, his Lakeside last year was one to forget, so while he's got a decent draw, can he gain some stage form in time to do anything with it?
Cross/Chisnall/Hughes/Ashton - Jesus christ, this is tough. It's a lot easier than it might have been if this took place six months ago when Jamie was in red hot form, but then again, Chisnall's form has increased to counterbalance it. Cross is the clear class of the field but lost to Chisnall literally last weekend. I think what Hughes does is key, if he turns up then it's going to be incredibly tight between the top three. God knows what to make of Lisa Ashton here, her scoring on the Challenge Tour is a couple of points better than what Suzuki was doing on the Asian Tour, but likely inflated by playing mostly better players, still, low 80's probably isn't going to cut the mustard in what's a draw from hell.
Wright/Noppert/Harrington/Warren - Nice draw for Peter this. Danny Noppert got in really late, and while we've stated on numerous occasions he's been playing better than his results have suggested, it's still a good three points worse than what Wright's been managing over the course of the year. Harrington's down at an 85 per turn clip for the season and ought not to trouble either of the other two PDC players, and probably ought to be an underdog to Warren as well, who's generally looked alright when we've seen him on TV in short samples, although not really getting the results. Still, he's got to have been doing well enough off stage to get here, maybe he can trouble Danny and steal second?
Gurney/Dolan/Clemens/Veenstra - This one looks very even. Gurney's the stand out name, but his scoring per turn really isn't spectacular, at least in comparison to his results and general level of recognition. The big German's less than a fifth of a point per turn behind him over the course of the season. Dolan over the course of the last year, and especially the last six months, has had a real return to form and cannot be counted out against either of these two, he's close enough to Gurney that all three players are separated by less than a point a turn. This leaves Dutch Open winner Veenstra, who I think is going to be outgunned a bit too easily here, but over a short race then maybe he can hold his own, his scoring's unimpressive but he's held it together in match situations quite well, and if he can at least hold his own in the opening game, maybe he can grow into the tournament from there.
Smith/Aspinall/Schindler/Durrant - Whichever group got Glen was always going to be a group of death, but this looks pretty nasty full stop. Over the course of the season in points per turn, Durrant is 7th, Smith 12th, Aspinall 15th and Schindler 26th - if you go back a few posts, you'll see that, outside of Cadby, Schindler's scoring more than anyone who isn't already qualified for the World Championship. All of these are scoring more than 91 per turn over the course of the year, with the bigger three names all over 92. It's a really intriguing group, between the main three it's too close to call, but to write Schindler out of this is severely underestimating how well he has been playing.
Quick game by game summary and bets later tonight.
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