Monday, 23 May 2022

Post-Stuttgart update

Good god, Humphries is absolutely destroying it, three Euro Tours in the bank now, two in two weekends, Cross now with an unbelievable 0-7 record in Euro Tour finals. Surely he gets one soon, he's playing well enough. FRH ranking update:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Rob Cross (UP 1)
7 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
8 Luke Humphries (UP 5)
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Gary Anderson (DOWN 3)
12 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
13 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Damon Heta (UP 2)
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 2)
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Clearly Luke is the big gainer, but back to back finals for Cross has seen him get above Clayton for now. Ando's continued absence from the Euro Tour sees him drop outside of the top 10, while Heta's steady accumulation has got him up into the top 16. Lower down, people who've got at least 5k over the last two Euro Tours include Dolan (#22), Gurney (#25), van der Voort (#26), Ross Smith (#30), Schindler (#37), Lewis (#40), Rowby (#43) is making big gains with back to back final sessions, Lukeman (#65) will hit the top 64 probably tomorrow on continual adjustments, Gawlas (#67), and finally Mansell (#86).

It's a real interesting question as to how many players are better than Humphries right now. I've got him at fifth in scoring in 2022, behind van Gerwen, Anderson (albeit he's not even played 250 legs, Humphries has LOST more than that), Heta and Wright. I'm pretty pleased that Luke, at least on the book I placed my each way punt on a couple of weeks ago he's now 20/1 compared to 33/1 which I've got. Mushnt grumble.

Sunday, 22 May 2022

Quarter final breakeven lines

Will get these up quickly, these do not include any data from the last 16 matches:

Schindler 2/1 Heta 1/2

Rodriguez 15/8 Cross 8/15

Dolan 4/11 Murnan 11/4
Dolan 7/4 Humphries 4/7

Noppert 6/4 Wright 4/6
Noppert 5/4 Clayton 4/5
Rafferty 3/1 Wright 1/3
Rafferty 11/4 Clayton 4/11

Would expect in reality Clayton to be shorter

Stuttgart day 3

Solid gain on the day thanks to Gilding, sure it was a bit of a messy game (30 dart leg, survived a match dart, missed a few doubles in leg 2 which would have given nice breathing room) but the win is the win. Gave a quarter of the winnings back on Lewis who got to exactly where we wanted at 2-0 up on the throw, then generally couldn't score heavily enough, and when he did, he either missed doubles or ran into a twelve from Clayton. Oh well. Maybe some missed opportunities with Lukeman pulling out the big upset along with Rowby and Rafferty getting the job done, if you were a bit more risk averse than me you'll have got rewarded. Eight quick matches to run through this afternoon, I doubt I'll be able to put anything up for the evening session but will try to give rough projections in a separate post in case you want to work things out for yourself.

Schindler/Lukeman - Martin wasted no time in defeating Razma just conceding the two legs, the other Martin managed to take down van Gerwen conceding even less. Wow. Market has this fairly close with Schindler approaching a 60% chance, that feels about right. I'm getting 57%. Might be a little bit more with the home field advantage but I doubt that shifts things anywhere near enough to consider a best price of 4/6.

Heta/Searle - Probably two of the strongest names left in the field, Damon needed all eleven legs to see off Mickey Mansell, while Ryan didn't have a great deal of trouble despatching Adam Gawlas in eight. Market has this incredibly close with Heta having the tiny edge, I tend to agree with this assessment giving Heta just 5% greater winning chances than Searle, so nothing in this one either.

Rodriguez/Gurney - Rowby dropped just the one leg against Cullen, we thought he had chances but I didn't think that scoreline was in anyway realistic, Gurney was made to work against Eddie Lovely, taking it down by the one break after being forced all the way to 4-4. Think Rowby has a small edge in this one, approaching a 55% chance, but the market puts him as a small underdog. This is very close to a play at 5/4, if he'd played better yesterday (despite the scoreline his averaging was not brilliant) I'd likely go with it, Daryl wasn't good yesterday either but I think he responds and did recognise it was not a good game from him. Will watch and grab 11/8 if it appears anywhere.

Cross/Ratajski - Rob needed a decider against Klaasen, not a great doubling show but got the one that counted, while Ratajski was clinical in a 6-2 rout over Huybrechts, not missing a dart at double in the whole game. This feels close on paper, market favours Cross by somewhere in the 55-60% region, maybe Ratajski has a little bit more of a chance than that but I still project Rob to win it and as such there is not the edge there.

Gilding/Dolan - Big opportunity for both here, Andrew we mentioned earlier, Brendan looked pretty decent in a 6-4 win over the dangerous Danny Jansen. Market has this real close with Dolan slightly favoured, Gilding is 11/10 which isn't enough. I've got him at 51%, would probably go at 11/8 and with yesterday's win I can't see the money going on Brendan enough for us to see a market move.

Murnan/Humphries - Joe took advantage of some missed chances from Dimitri to nick a decider and advance to the last 16, while Luke was also taken to a decider by Meikle who missed three darts for a critical break at 4-4. Oh well. Market is all over Luke and I can't disagree with it, Joe's got his moments but I only see him at 17% to claim this one. 2/9 Humphries is not actually a bad bet, that's basically a shade better than break even.

Wright/Clayton - Seems to be fairly often where we get the two biggest names left playing at this stage, whether these are the two best players is an entirely different question. Mentioned Clayton earlier, Wright didn't have too much trouble with Engstrom, Johan got a couple of early holds but Wright was cruising from there. Tricky one to call, I have Peter as a tiny favourite, the market has it the other way around. This is similar to the Rowby spot, if any more comes on Clayton I'd certainly think about it, but given my projections have had a tendency to underestimate Jonny, I doubt we ever see it in reality.

Noppert/Rafferty - Danny eliminated Michael Smith in a good game where Noppert had the lower average (at 102), while Nathan got a nice scalp in taking down Dirk van Duijvenbode with a ton average of his own. The market doesn't give Rafferty much of a shot at 11/4, we've liked him in both games (one a recommended play, one not quite so much) but he runs into one of our old favourites in this one, and I really can't call the play here. He's a little bit underrated, but I only see 31%, the odds we can get say 27%, so it's not quite there. If he was actually north of 3/1, then I'd start thinking about it.

So no actual bets on day 3, Rodriguez and Wright seem the closest to bets and I wouldn't stop anyone from taking those plays.

Saturday, 21 May 2022

Stuttgart day 2

Will take yesterday, would have been better if Zonneveld could have served it out obviously, but picking up both Gilding and Rafferty at a price that rapidly shortened in both cases is a decent enough return. Sixteen games today so let's get straight to it:

Heta/Mansell - Should be a good test for Mickey this after a comfortable win against Szaganski where he wasn't really tested but still played decent enough, market thinks Heta more than 75%, that seems fair enough, I've got this as bang on 80/20.

van den Bergh/Murnan - Joe whitewashed Lukas Wenig, didn't need to do a whole lot to do so but hit quite a few maxes and was good on the doubles so won't be trivial for Dimitri, although the market's got this one at round about the same price as the first game. This seems a little bit closer than that one though, Joe's got slightly over 25%, but not as much as 30% so no real value here either.

Searle/Gawlas - Good job from Adam in round one, ton average to defeat one tricky Ryan, and now he gets another, and the market's giving him ever so slightly better chances than the first two games, floating at about 30%. I'm not sure why though, Searle is an incredibly tough opponent and I've got this one 75/25. Again, another spot where there's not the edge to recommend a play.

Gurney/Lovely - Eddie got the bye, Daryl is somehow still seeded, Lovely was hitting some good stuff about a year ago but seems a touch quieter now, although still playing well enough that I'm rating him at about a one in three shot, this against Gurney who's continuing to get back to where he was. 3/1 is kind of half tempting, but without the first round game to really look at, I'm not sure I can recommend a play. It's very close though, 100/30 I'd probably grab.

de Sousa/Gilding - Good landing spot for Andrew this, who one duff leg from both aside had zero trouble against John Michael as expected, Jose had a decent run last time out but still seems a touch on the quiet side, both players' form being recognised with Andrew not even a 2/1 dog. Do think we can go with this, Andrew's actually scoring better than Jose in 2022, so we'll take Hills offering, 0.25u Gilding 7/4, they're the only ones at that price but this is still good down to 6/4, maybe ever so slightly shorter.

Ratajski/Huybrechts - Kim came through a decider with Bunting where he avoided a match dart, little bit of a scrappy game on the scoring, but he's got Ratajski which is a fair bit of a step up in class over Stephen, although many may not necessarily see it that way. Line of 4/7 on Krzysztof that I'm seeing in most places looks spot on, so nothing more to see here.

Dolan/Jansen - Danny only lost the one leg in an easy enough win against Kleermaker, who missed quite a few shots at double, Danny might need to pick his game up against Brendan who should be a bit of a tougher test, although the market is rating Danny in the high thirties in terms of win percentage, so it is recognising he can play. I see it 65/35, so no real edge either way, maybe Dolan being slightly undervalued but nothing to write home about.

Cross/Klaasen - Jelle caused a bit of an upset by eliminating Callan Rydz in round one, just throwing in consistent two treble visits and generally generating more chances than his opponent. Rob will be a tougher test still, and the market's got a bit of vig but is basically saying 25% Jelle. That feels about right, on the limited data I have maybe Jelle's a tick or so better than that, but can't really recommend anything.

Cullen/Rodriguez - Into the evening session we go and we've got the most recent Premier League night winner up against Rowby, who against Williams saw good scoring, scrappy doubling, and then a four visit break in the decider. Timing's everything. Rowby's playing well and has chances, I'm looking at 60/40 Cullen from where I'm standing which makes 7/4 on Rowby not quite enough, I think anything north of 2/1 I'd take.

Humphries/Meikle - This could be spicy if Ryan steps up, he didn't need to really get out of second gear to beat a faltering Ron Meulenkamp, but he'll need to do so here, that said his top game can give the multiple time Euro Tour winner (we can say that now) problems. Looks like Luke should take this more than 70% but not quite 75% of the time, such is the standard he's playing at right now, Meikle is 7/2 which is getting close to thinking about taking a flier, but it's so hard to bet against Humphries at this moment in time without a really good reason to do so.

Clayton/Lewis - Adie needed to come from behind to defeat Luke Woodhouse, 91 average not really that impressive but any time you go from 5-2 down to a 6-5 win, you've got to draw some positives. Market really isn't rating Lewis in this one, rare that you'd be able to get him at 3/1, I think he's got enough of a chance that it's worth the shot, 0.1u Lewis 3/1, I'm thinking 35% so there is a bit more of an edge compared to other long shots that we've been tempted with.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Martin was made to work against Stefan Bellmont, but got over the line 6-3 in the end after a bit of a scrappy beginning to the match, and here's a good match to really test where his game is at. 9/2 is what we can get, and this seems incredibly close to a play. I'd have put the fair line at 100/30, if Lukeman had been a little bit more clinical yesterday then maybe I fire the shot, but I'll keep my money in my pocket here, although it is notable to see that MvG is getting back to the stage where he might be a little bit too short in lots of games. One to keep an eye on.

Schindler/Razma - Madars was made to fight against Zonneveld in a weird game where both players hit ten darters ending on unexpected doubles, he lost the averaged by quite some way and will need to tighten up against Schindler who was promoted into the seeds for this event. Market's thinking 2-1 in favour of Martin, that looks fine, maybe Madars has a couple percent more chance than that, but no lines are significantly off what I'm seeing.

Wright/Engstrom - Johan got a pretty big upset in seeing off Clemens, now faces Wright, no real analysis needed here, I lack the data on Johan to make a fair assessment but Peter at 1/12 is of no interest, and 8/1 on Engstrom I guess seems fair.

Smith/Noppert - Real tough draw for both, Noppert being unseeded is a bit of an anomaly and Smith's back to winning tournaments, this UK Open rematch rates to me as being in favour of Michael, just a bit over 55/45, market is saying 4/5 Smith and the inverse for Noppie, so yeah, let's just get to the last game.

van Duijvenbode/Rafferty - DvD's the last man up and will play Nathan who didn't average or finish that great against Horvat, but generated enough chances to get the job done. This is a huge step up in quality and I'd expect a fair line to be about 11/4 - we can get 7/2, which isn't quite enough to get excited about given Nathan was a bit lacklustre yesterday.

So just the two plays, plenty of longer shots that seem close to plays, if you like one of the likes of Lovely, Rowby, Meikle, Lukeman or Rafferty a bit more than I am, then take the shot.

Friday, 20 May 2022

Stuttgart day 1 - just the bets

0.5u Gilding 3/10, as thought, this isn't short enough on 365. Betfair are much shorter than this, Ladbrokes much the same. I see no realistic way Michael wins this one.

0.25u Zonneveld 11/10, same bookie, enough of an edge to bet this, would have hoped for a little bit longer but this'll do.

Close to Szaganski at just longer than 2/1 but recent form and possible lack of stage experience makes me halt. Wouldn't hate the punt.

Williams at even is really, really tempting, but it's a case of how much stock I put into consistency. After all, the projection which disregards that says it's a flip.

0.25u Rafferty 4/5, this seems way off. Did Horvat have a good quali or something? I think even peak Dragutin doesn't make this a bad bet and there's a severe lack of evidence we have that.

Sedlacek is close to being worth a short stab, but it'd only be for 0.1u and I don't think it's really worth chasing this even if the line moves to better than 3/1.

Thursday, 19 May 2022

Stuttgart round one thoughts

Incredibly frustrating that we've got different big players withdrawing, and because the PDC decided to hold all the host nation qualifiers in advance, we've got no replacement. Despite them holding a playoff at the actual qualifier for this exact eventuality. The mind boggles. Still, that means that Schindler gets the dubious privilege of getting promoted to the #16 seed, and Eddie Lovely gets a first round bye and a winnable second round game against Daryl Gurney. I can't see any lines yet, so will just post up some thoughts for now - if there's lines up later tonight I'll probably post tips later tonight, otherwise it'll be in the morning.

Gilding/Michael - Should be a very easy Gilding this one. Michael's had some flashes, as he always does, but he's nearly ten points behind Andrew on scoring. Whatever price this comes up at, it won't be short enough, 1/8 looks fair!

Razma/Zonneveld - Madars has looked decent so far in 2022, while we've not heard a great deal from Niels since he regained his card. Niels is however scoring more than Madars is, he's a little bit more inconsistent but 8/11 looks about right to me. Would imagine Razma enters as favourite, so could be an opportunity here.

Gawlas/Joyce - Entertaining one this, Adam off of the back of a good run while Joyce is still in that top 32 fringes zone, but a bit off major qualification which he really needs to threaten those spots. Joyce looks the solidly better player in 2022 with deceptively good stats given his quiet set of results, good few points better than Gawlas and ought to be around 4/9.

Szaganski/Mansell - Hard to know what to make of Radek, not seen a whole lot of him play, especially in comparison to Mickey, who's come onto our radar a bit over the last couple of weeks with some decent results. There's only a couple of points between them in the scoring and consistency looks similar, so a projection of about Mansell 4/6 seems about right.

Bellmont/Lukeman - Data's a little bit limited on Stefan, only 31 legs played with scoring of 87 in them, which puts him a fair bit behind Lukeman. Don't think this is a formality for Martin, but I would imagine a line of around 1/3 is in the right ballpark.

Meikle/Meulenkamp - The RM derby! Ryan has played competently and is outscoring Ron well enough that he comes in here as a favourite between two players who are looking to add a bit of a buffer between themselves and the cutoff in the tour card race. This projects at 8/11 in favour of Ryan, but Ron is playing some fairly inconsistent stuff so a fair line might actually be a few ticks shorter.

Murnan/Wenig - We've seen a fair bit of Wenig over the last couple of years without really seeing him set the house on fire, while Joe has had some good runs but maybe not so much over the past twelve months which has seen him slide a little bit. Joe's got about three points a turn on Lukas who we have just about enough data on to make me think Murnan ought to be 8/15 when lines show up.

Klaasen/Rydz - This ought to be played at a nice pace and could result in a fair few maxes, we've got a good 70 or so legs on Jelle who has scored near to 89 in multiple events across several organisations and formats, but that's a good 3+ points below Callan, not the easiest draw for either but Callan ought to be around 1/2. Might be shorter in real life, maybe lack of sample is overrating Klaasen a touch.

Williams/Rodriguez - Two players here who have made a good start to 2022, making the Matchplay might be a little bit out of reach, but the Grand Prix is certainly on the horizon for both, Jim being the last player out and Rowby within 10k of the cutoff as things stand. Both are scoring well, winning legs are basically identical which gives an evens projection, but we need to consider consistency in this one, Rowby's score is at 3.95 which isn't bad, especially for him, but Jim's is practically zero, so that coinflip projection needs taking with a huge pinch of salt.

Huybrechts/Bunting - Another great matchup here which a few years back could easily have been a major quarter final, Kim continuing a resurgence and scoring over 90 a turn, but that's not enough to keep pace with Bunting, who's just that little bit better which ought to translate to around an 8/11 advantage for the former Lakeside champion.

Kleermaker/Jansen - Interesting Dutch derby here between someone who I've tipped to win a Pro Tour soon but hasn't, and someone who I didn't, but has. Scoring isn't too dissimilar, Jansen has the higher scoring but is a bit more inconsistent, they're scoring about the same on losing legs but Danny is a couple of points higher on winning legs, causing the master computer to spit out a line of 4/6 which might be a little too short in reality.

Rafferty/Horvat - Nathan ought to be OK in this one. Steady scoring in the 88 region ought to be enough for Dragutin, who we know can produce some moments of magic, but we've not seen it any time recently, probably the last time being that Superleague final he lost. Probably gets priced up at around 2/5 in favour of Rafferty, I doubt I end up taking a position on this game.

Woodhouse/Lewis - Seems like Luke is getting quite a few tough draws of late, this time up against Adie - and then Clayton if he wins this one. Adie is playing well, scoring well into the 91 range, but Luke is only a couple of points off and this actually projects at 4/5 Lewis, such is the parity between the players. That said, Woodhouse is a touch more inconsistent, so while I imagine the line will be shorter than that on Adie, I doubt this would be an auto play.

Clemens/Engstrom - Gabriel could do with a win here as he's been a little bit on the quiet side, and getting the Nordic qualifier isn't a bad draw in the slightest. We've only got one match worth of data on Johan this season, which is from Austria where he got four legs off Ricky Evans averaging around 90, but Gabriel should be too tough. Hard to project a line. 1/3, maybe 2/7 Clemens?

Sedlacek/Noppert - Final game is a corker, we've gone on about Sedlacek for quite some time now and he's only gone and drawn the newest major champion who with a bit of a run here could get up towards the top 16 on the Pro Tour rankings and avoid having to play the qualifiers and the first round, which'd be a big boost. Karel is good but Danny is just better, call it 4/7 in favour of Noppie?

Bets when I can post them.

Sunday, 15 May 2022

Prague day 3

Apologies for yesterday's post being very short and to the point, but I was extremely short on time, and I literally found no plays - it wasn't a case of not looking for them, I did go through every match and couldn't find a single play that I could recommend. We've had a fair few big names drop out - Clayton is maybe the biggest shock of the European Tour so far this season, while Price also going out (naturally there were afters, if you're going to bet on afters in any game, Price against Lewis would usually be a fair shout) has opened up the door for whoever comes through the van Gerwen/Humphries quarter (ironic that the two players left in the event who are scoring the most this season are in the same quarter) to be a strong favourite to take the title, while there's big opportunities for lots of people to go deep. Let's roll:

Rodriguez/van Duijvenbode - Rowby's been in form, and was able to withstand a big fish from Smith to get home and eliminate the Premier League player on a 14+ game winning streak, while Dirk looked strong, especially on finishing, to take out the home favourite in Sedlacek. I'm seeing Rowby with more or less right in between a 40% chance and a one in three shot, so a best line of 2/1 really isn't enticing either way.

de Sousa/Justicia - The Jose derby is under way, Justicia was able to have the game of his life to take out Clayton (who, let's be said, wasn't playing bad, Jose just played well enough to get over the line), while de Sousa looked a bit better than he has of late with a steady 6-2 victory over Kleermaker. Justicia is definitely live in this one, anyone who can beat a Clayton who is playing well should be, I'm seeing nearly a one in three shot, so still a tough ask - the best we can get is the usual Ladbrokes underrating the underdogs compared to other books, but even then 12/5 isn't enticing.

van den Bergh/Humphries - Think this has to be the match of the round, and I don't think it's overly close - Dimitri had a real tough draw in Aspinall in round two, but was able to get the odd break to leave Nathan hoping his home town football team gets the point they need later today to get back in the league (no idea if he actually follows County or not but will give them props), Luke only dropped the one leg against the dangerous Lukeman, could maybe have been a bit closer if Martin hasn't missed the odd dart but he was already three down before he got a shot so always on the back foot. Dimitri's chances look the same as Rowby's to me, but disturbingly the bookies can't separate them. 0.25u Humphries 10/11.

van Gerwen/Mansell - Michael let the foot off the gas a bit against one of the Czech qualifiers to blow my -4.5 punt with MvG being 5-0 up, while Mansell got through a slugfest with Dolan, surviving a match dart to get through. This one shouldn't be close, 5/1 on Mickey looks the correct line, so MvG is really too short to put into an acca or anything.

Cross/Evans - Rob had no issues dealing with van Dongen, while Evans surprisingly had no issues with Ratajski, whitewashing the Pole and only allowing him darts at double in one leg. Oh my. Rob continues to be underrated and projects as a solid favourite and a 1/3 line would be fair. We can actually get 4/9, not quite enough for me to pull the wallet out, but looks to be the best value of the favourites so far if you want to have some additional higher variance plays.

Smith/Chisnall - Ross continues to get some better results after a fairly poor opening to the year, 6-4 over Cullen isn't a bad result, Dave edged out Gurney in a decider in what looks like the match of the round and maybe of the Euro Tour so far just looking at the numbers with both players sustaining 102 and 103 averages across all eleven legs. Appears a fairly tight one on projections, I'm giving Chizzy the 55/45 edge, he comes in as a slightly shorter favourite than that, but with the vig there isn't a play on Smith. If we could get the 7/4 to go with the 4/7 that Dave is priced at in multiple books, I'd probably take the shot on Ross, maybe it is out there but I just can't see it because oddschecker are being lazy again. Maybe I try the exchanges.

Gawlas/Searle - Adam's the last Czech left standing having got the big scalp of Damon Heta in what looked like a bit of a slower scoring than usual and then missed doubles fest just looking at the numbers, Ryan meanwhile was last on yesterday and whitewashed Ritchie Edhouse. Seems like this should be a match too far for Adam, I'd price him at 7/2 ignoring any crowd factors, he's actually a little shorter than that in some places so being able to get 3/10 on Searle at 365 isn't a losing play - just one  where I don't have the confidence margin to place a bet. If anyone's going any longer than 1/3, then definitely consider the shot.

Lewis/van der Voort - Final game, should be a solid one played at a watchable pace. Adie took out Price in what I assume was a bit of a tetchy game, Vincent meanwhile nicked a decider against Schindler, really slamming home the ton-forties and making very few errors on doubles, only real costly error being in the first leg. Adie projects pretty solidly in this one - approaching a two in three favourite, I think there's enough here that I can go 0.25u Lewis 8/11, he's a confidence player and what can give him more confidence than eliminating the number one seed. Real chance for Adie to go deep in this one.

So just the two plays, the Luke one is the best play, the Lewis one has just about enough to recommend, but I wouldn't take the 4/6 that's on Betfair, Ladbrokes etc, it's that marginal. Maybe just go a tenth of a unit at that price if you're restricted on anywhere that's offering better.