Wednesday 29 March 2017

Odds and sods

Few random things that aren't worthy of a post on their own:

- I've added a few darts links to the sidebar. I'd add some forums but the only one that was not completely terrible (but suffered from terrible moderation) seems to have died.

- Paul Hogan hit a nine in the home internationals and nobody seemed to notice. I'll probably add the stats from that event to the database as although I assume it can't be ranked it is at least competitive for those that are in it and anything on BDO players is surely useful.

- Watching events live. I'd love to go more. I've been twice - the first time was on the European Tour in Munich (the one Henderson made the final of) where I went to the afternoon session on the final day, and it was absolutely worth it, although the tables had sold out. Eight matches of high quality, good reasonably priced beer, pleasant atmosphere, no complaints (apart from the comedy price they were selling Eclipse Pro's at). I also went to the opening session of the Grand Prix last year - nowhere near as good. Televised so absolutely masses of downtime, a late start on a Sunday evening, only having Foster's (no Guinness in Dublin is surely a first), no facilities to pay by card or withdraw cash, ran so slowly I had to miss the last three games in order to get the last tram back because the venue is in the middle of nowhere, and badly directed. Who knew the Citywest wasn't located at the tram stop with Citywest in the name? Me and all the German leprechauns for a few. Get it in the city, or, better, now that you've removed the free Irish entrants, over here. Maybe in the north - we have the Matchplay and that's it. Worlds are in London. UK Open was up here but now it's in Minehead like the Players Championship Finals. European Championship is in Belgium. Grand Slam would just about be doable but I have no reason to ever go to Wolverhampton.

- Six events over the next six weekends is quite packed. I should hopefully be able to get bets for round 1 of the next Euro event up as it's over Easter, the others might be a push with work.

Monday 27 March 2017

He's consistently inconsistent

Thinking about the comments on Huybrechts in the previous post, I've had a quick thought about how to factor consistency using the stats that I have available. It seems quite easy to do - multiply the number of legs won by 501, total up the number of visits in winning legs, bang, a figure for average in winning legs.

Of course, my stats don't differentiate between a 13 darter and a 15 darter, but I don't see that as an issue, that you kill in 1 dart in the fifth visit just means that your skill is in giving yourself more time. A fifteen is a fifteen - if it's hitting tops on a third dart after missing two, it reflects that you've scored heavily earlier. If you check out 170 to do so, it reflects your finishing prowess. It should even out.

The losing average figure has one issue - it can be inflated or deflated by your opponent to an extent. If you leave 81 after nine darts and your opponent goes out, that's nice. If you end up drakking about on the doubles because your opponent is doing the same, then it's not, but that has a solution - hit your doubles.

So what does the table look like? Let's take the top 32 in the world as of right now (official, not mine), and sort by losing average minus winning average. The higher this figure is, the more it should show that you're keeping good enough order consistently when you're not winning. In theory. Let's go:

1 Phil Taylor -0.21
2 Peter Wright -0.46
3 James Wade -1.24
4 Gary Anderson -1.25
5 Jamie Caven -1.37
6 Benito van de Pas -1.42
7 Dave Chisnall -1.53
8 Mark Webster -2.13
9 Raymond van Barneveld -2.14
10 Daryl Gurney -2.36
11 Steve Beaton -2.47
12 Ian White -2.58
13 Cristo Reyes -2.60
14 Mensur Suljovic -2.70
15 Simon Whitlock -3.04
16 Gerwyn Price -3.06
17 Stephen Bunting -3.22
18 Michael Smith -3.51
19 Michael van Gerwen -3.87
20 Terry Jenkins -3.89
21 Justin Pipe -3.91
22 Joe Cullen -4.20
23 Jelle Klaasen -4.24
24 Adrian Lewis -4.34
25 Brendan Dolan -4.52
26 Mervyn King -4.82
27 Darren Webster -5.10
28 Alan Norris -7.03
29 Robert Thornton -7.99
30 Vincent van der Voort -8.68
31 Kim Huybrechts -8.68
32 Kyle Anderson -8.78

There's some interesting figures there, but it does seem to have some correlation with the rankings as a whole - of the worlds top eight, six of them are in this top ten list. It also does seem to look in general like you have streakier players towards the bottom, and more consistent players towards the top - Taylor, Wright and Wade would be in most people's lists as for the most consistent on the circuit. Let's quickly knock some outliers out - Caven is likely so high as his average in winning legs is horrible at below 86 - he's consistent, but in a bad way. van Gerwen is likely so low because his average in winning legs is over 101 - you can't physically score that in a losing leg unless the other guy goes out in 15 on throw or 12 to break. He has the second highest losing average in my database (less than half a point behind Anderson, minimum 10 legs won), but that can't counteract being the highest in terms of winning average by a clear 2 points.

Thoughts on the methodology?

Sunday 26 March 2017

Euro Tour 1 aftermath

Before that, props to Aaron Dyer on getting another Challenge Tour win, and also Lee Evans on picking up one as well.

So Peter Wright's finally got over the van Gerwen final issue, congrats to him but I do wonder what would have happened if MvG, after starting leg 3 with a maximum, had managed to kill the 321 left in 18 darts, rather than letting Wright break to get back into things. We'll never know.

Best player performance: There was quite a lot of chalk here, the quarter finals had filtered out all the qualifiers and all the top four seeds were still left, I'll give it to the champion - having to come through two tight struggles against Kist and Price, but also looking superb in rolling over Bunting, Huybrechts and van Gerwen for a loss of just seven legs in those games.

Best single match performance: Johnson over Wade is a contender, there's lots of good scoring from plenty of players, Wattimena over Roith catching the eye, but I'll give it to van Gerwen over Wattimena, finishing every leg in under 15 darts, two of them in twelve or less, only losing the one leg where he'd left 13 after twelve darts.

Worst player performance: Wade blowing a 5-1 lead obviously. Smith probably close.

Worst single match performance: Jan Dekker, after rolling over Michael Smith like it's an easy thing to do, he then loses 6-0 to Benito van de Pas, averaging 71 in the process. Not like Benito played that well there, he only finished two of his legs in fifteen darts or less, Dekker could easily have come close, he just opted not to do so.

New adjusted rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
9 Phil Taylor (DOWN 1)
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White
15 Alan Norris (UP 1)
16 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Mervyn King (NEW)

I've also managed to get a pivot table on my huge data spreadsheet to work, kind of, so I can now see data from the nearly 7000 legs of darts it knows about (beginning from September 2016). Taking a 30 leg won minimum as a cutoff (which covers over fifty players), I can now see at a glance who's the best at various stats. So here's how things stand:

Highest percentage of legs in 12 darts or less:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Kim Huybrechts
4 Adrian Lewis
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Mervyn King
7 Phil Taylor
8 Peter Wright
9 Vincent van der Voort
10 Jelle Klaasen

Highest percentage of legs in 15 darts or less:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Adrian Lewis
3 Gary Anderson
4 Raymond van Barneveld
5 Kim Huybrechts
6 Peter Wright
7 David Pallett
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Simon Whitlock

Highest percentage of legs in 18 darts or less:
1 Vincent van der Voort
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Mensur Suljovic
4 Phil Taylor
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Gary Anderson
7 Daryl Gurney
8 Robbie Green
9 Peter Wright
10 Cristo Reyes

Highest average in losing legs:
1 Gary Anderson
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Phil Taylor
4 Peter Wright
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Dave Chisnall
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Cristo Reyes
10 Daryl Gurney

Think the most surprising thing to me is Huybrechts - how the hell has he got relegated from the Premier League? Before people start screaming sample size at me, Huybrechts is in the top five for most legs won in this sample - behind only MvG, Wright, Wade and Barney. It can only be inconsistency - in the legs he's lost, he averages only 88.

Euro Tour 1 Final Day

Maybe I should have titled this post Back in Black, given that's what Darren Johnson has made me. There's been a lot of Wade collapses in the past but that is quite the special one. Pity that van den Bergh couldn't complete the sweep, but I don't expect to win every long shot I back, only for them to win enough that I end up in the long run. Winning at least one leg would have been nice though...

Quite a lot of chalk yesterday, although the two seeds (other than Wade) that didn't get through are somewhat of a shock to me, Smith seemed to be finally getting it, then to go 5-0 down to Dekker? I had a brief look and it just looks like missed doubles, but still... Whitlock not getting close to Painter is worse, letting him break in 18, hold in 24, that's a very poor showing.

Late start today (pesky clock change), don't see anything I like betting wise in the last 16. Doubt I am able to look too much at the quarter finals, maybe if the odds are up very fast before I head out for the England game, I don't know. With the way the draw looks I can't envisage there being too much value, maybe if we get something like Price/Suljovic and Price isn't the favourite it might be worth it, but I won't hold my breath.

Challenge Tour is also going on this weekend, interesting to see that Tabern and Lukeman's UK Open runs don't seem to be flukes, even if neither got over the line yesterday, Dyer who won the first one is a complete unknown to me, Milford I've at least notice pick up the odd Pro Tour cash and European Tour qualification, so maybe if he's able get in to some of the main tour events, he could start to make bigger moves. That said, I'd guess he's quite low down on the backfill list following Q-School, and due to the PDC's stupid European qualification changes it's not like he can bink qualification for one of those either.

Should be back later today, or at the latest tomorrow, with a round up of Hildesheim, in terms of my adjusted rankings Jenkins is already out of the top 20, to be replaced by King or Cullen, depending on if Cullen beats Suljovic. Bunting's the only other option but he'd need to final and he plays Wright next, so that's not that realistic. Suljovic can pass Taylor again with a win, Chisnall could move up to fourth potentially with Wade out already.

Friday 24 March 2017

Euro Tour 1

Firstly, praise the sun! The current event on the dartsdata page has somehow made the UK Open scorelines reappear, so I've quickly noted down everything I need and will add them into the master computer this weekend, along with the information from this weekend's event. I may try and backfill some data from the Pro Tour, as it seems like a few games that were streamed are on Youtube. We'll see how much time I have.

Anyway, as usual Hopp somehow contrived not to qualify for this weekend's tournament. Information is incredibly limited as to what actually happened, but let's look at tomorrow. Odds are up pretty fast, everything apart from Whitlock/Painter is up, so let's go:

Price is just shorter than a 2:1 favourite, seems right, both are in good form
White's about the same against Bowles, think that's not right, Bowles couldn't manage a single fifteen darter which won't cut it against someone of White's calibre - 0.5u White 5/11
Klaasen is a dog to McGowan? I know there was an article on him having an injury, and by the looks of things he played like complete arse, but really? Probably should have watched last night to judge for myself. 0.5u Klaasen 11/8 anyway as McGowan wasn't exactly good today either
Smith's nearly 3/1 on, that seems very short against Dekker. Neither Dekker nor Quantock seemed that good scanning the numbers... will pass though as Smith seems to be remembering how to play darts
Reyes a 2:1 favourite against Nicholson, that doesn't seem like a bad punt, Paul only had a couple of fifteen darters today and Reyes is seeded for a reason - 0.5u Reyes 1/2
Huybrechts is a huge favourite against Portela which seems fine, Kim's game against Evetts was one of those I looked at earlier and that was exceptional darts
Bunting only a small favourite against Pallett. Bunting's game seems to have gone to pieces, and the times I've looked at Pallett he looks OK, but I need longer than is offered
Norris strong odds on against Corner. Will pass, Corner had a couple of OK legs and I do wonder if Norris blowing the chance he had against Price might have him slightly off his game
Johnson seems like a good bet against Wade - 0.25u Johnson 4/1, last four legs he won he ran off in 15 or less, he's off the back of a good Pro Tour run, it could happen
Chizzy almost a 3/1 favourite against van den Bergh, Dimitri looked on point today so will go for another dog gamble, 0.25u van den Bergh 11/4
Don't know much about Harvey. 102+ average is nice over a 10 leg match, but Benito's a different level
Wright 1/10 vs Kist? Come on
van Gerwen's even shorter against Wattimena
Suljovic has been a bit quiet since the worlds, so will avoid betting against King who's playing OK the last month despite a tempting price
Cullen probably isn't worth a bet against Bain, if Bain can turn over Dobey he might have chances

Monday 13 March 2017

Players Championship 3/4, ET1 qualifiers

I leave the country for two minutes and all hell breaks loose! What on earth happened this weekend, crazy sets of results. Congrats to Rob Cross on, while playing to a very good standard, did win his title out of nowhere, Simon Whitlock on another win which gives him a big bump in my live rankings below, and Kim Huybrechts, Ryan Meikle and Joe Cullen on hitting nine darters.

Best weekend long performance - somewhat of a tricky one this, nobody made both quarter finals so it's hard to give it to someone on consistency for that, Cross would be an easy shout if he'd got further than the last 32 yesterday, Whitlock managed to go out in the first round, so I'm going to look lower down the order and see who managed to cash better than they would be expected to and qualified for the European Tour. King did the qualifying but missed one of the Pro Tour events completely, Paul Nicholson also had somewhat of a return to form with two cashes, qualification, and the scalp of Peter Wright, Jamie Bain got a couple of mincashes and qualified, Dobey continued to be solid. I'm going to give it to Bain - while it's only a couple of grand of prize money, I think he can be very happy with his returns.

Best tournament long performance - Darren Johnson. Cross would again be the easy call, but scalps of van Barneveld, Price, Norris and King doesn't look as impressive as beating Chisnall, van Barneveld (in rounds 1 and 2 for crying out loud), van de Pas and van Gerwen.

Best single match performance - Almost tempting to give it to Caven for whitewashing Wilson, but Willie O'Connor over Michael van Gerwen is more worthy.

Worst weekend long performance - Chuck could be close having won just four legs in two games against Terry Temple and Rob Cross. Bunting also had two first round defeats, to Andy Jenkins and the aforementioned Jamie Bain. That said, neither of those needed to qualify for Europe, and Brendan Dolan did. And didn't. He lost there to Darron Brown, not even in the final round, and fell first round to Rob Cross and Robert Thornton in the main floor events. Thornton beating Dolan was the only reason he didn't miss on all three completely either. But I'm going to go for a big name in Peter Wright - won through the first round each time, but then lost in round 2 to Paul Nicholson and Christian Kist, which for our newest major champion can only be described as a major underperformance.

Worst single match performance - Few contenders here, Barney using the Barney rule to play the UK qualifier then lose to John Bowles is probably the pick from the European qualifier, Wilson losing 6-0 to Caven is comical, but I'll opt for Jamie Lewis for forcing me to put Terry Roach on my ranking spreadsheet, thanks to being unable to win a single leg.

Still need to update the running betting total following the UK Open (edit - 14/03/17 - now amended). Something to do this week along with continuing to collate the live data.

Updated live top 20 rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 2)
13 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White (DOWN 1)
15 Michael Smith
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Terry Jenkins

Friday 10 March 2017

Weekend update

My takes on what'll happen in tonight's Euro Tour qualifier and the two Players Championship events this weekend won't be up until at the earliest Monday, or more likely Tuesday - I'm away for the weekend without access to be able to update. The qualifier should be of great interest - there's some big names there including Kyle Anderson, Steve Beaton, Chris Dobey, Brendan Dolan, Mervyn King, Adrian Lewis, Robert Thornton, Raymond van Barneveld and both the Websters. That's very strong and with 18 places up for grabs, it's going to take some good play for the upcoming players who have got good starts to the season to even qualify, add on that only Gary Anderson out of the top 16 in the Pro Tour rankings didn't enter, going more than one and done will be really tricky.

I haven't watched a single dart of the Premier League, but the level of parity is very surprising - even Huybrechts and Klaasen, who are currently bottom and two points adrift of Lewis, are getting in positions to win, Kim drawing three, Klaasen winning one, drawing another, being in a good position against Barney yesterday etc. With three weeks to go before the bottom two cutoff, it's still wide open, Klaasen's run in isn't the hardest, Huybrechts' is tougher, they both have to play Lewis which will be critical. Meanwhile at the top, Wright and van Gerwen look like the picks so far, but it wouldn't take much for someone just below to go on a run and claw them back. I might watch some of next week just because it's Rotterdam, we'll see.

Sunday 5 March 2017

UK Open - Aftermath

Firstly, huge congrats to Peter Wright on picking up the ranking title that he's been due. Sure he may say that with no van Gerwen or Taylor present it might not feel the same, but it's got to be better to have got there when the opportunity presented itself, rather than wondering what might have happened if van Gerwen hadn't injured himself and not got a title.

Also congrats to Gerwyn Price, he rode his luck at times but has to be happy with making a televised final, qualifying for the Grand Slam (not guaranteed, but for all intents and purposes he's there), a nice payday and move up the rankings.

As far as betting was concerned this was an unprecedented disaster - dropping six units to go into the red overall, and hugely down for the year. It's hard to work out what went wrong at this stage, and whether to say I made any huge errors in my picks or whether it is just variance. It's fairly gutting to have four of the last seven bets to be full unit plays and to go down in ridiculously close situations when they previously had winning positions - Klaasen leading 6-2 on throw against van der Voort, being drawn back to 9-9 then missing a match dart and having Vincent take out 106. Huybrechts breaking to lead 9-8 and throw for the match, kick off 180 then only leave 140 after twelve darts, and you then hit two trebles and miss the double, let Norris equalise and then miss bull for the match in the decider. Whitlock throwing at 7-4, then losing five legs on the bounce, he did get it back to 9-9 and while Gurney finishing in twelve darts on throw is difficult to beat, it should never get to that stage. Norris leaving 40 after twelve darts to break Price at 9-9, missing the lot and having Price kill 100 to hold then allowing yourself to be broken in 15 darts. Picking up just a couple of those makes cuts the loss by more than half. Oh well, I'll plug the data in from this tournament (it seems to be fairly complete from boards 1 and 2, it's missing the Whitlock/Quantock match entirely and gave up on Gurney/Roy after three legs, but other than that it seems fine), play with the figures and see what happens.

New top 20 in the adjusted rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld (UP 1)
7 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts (UP 1)
12 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
13 Ian White (UP 1)
14 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
15 Michael Smith (DOWN 2)
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 2)
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton (DOWN 2)
20 Terry Jenkins

Some other notes from people that did well - Cullen's now one spot outside the top 20, van der Voort returns to the top 30, O'Connor's close to the top 64, Cross is inside the top 80, Tabern's just outside it.

UK Open Semi Finals

Oh joy, another two full unit plays going down in deciding legs to go with the Klaasen one from yesterday, that hurts a bunch and puts me down overall. Some cracking quality games though, Wright/van Barneveld was unbelievable.

The draw gives us Wright/Gurney and Norris/Price. Gurney's been installed as about a 5/1 dog, and I'm not looking to play on this one. Wright holds throw from the stats I have over 78% of the time compared to Gurney's 61%, which is a big gap. Gurney breaking and holding in any given 2 leg spell is only a 13% shot, and he needs to do that and have Wright not do that - only problem is Wright would break/hold 30% of the time. Seems too tough an ask.

Norris/Price has Norris about a 55/45 favourite. Both of them have 84 legs won in my database - same amount of 12 darters, but Norris has won 49 legs in fifteen darts compared to 39 for Price, the other ten legs going eighteen darts seven times, with the rest going over 18. At the first break, Norris should lead on these stats over half the time with about a quarter of them being level, based on Norris holding 11% more often than Price would. It's going to need Price to continue his very solid checkout percentages to keep this one as tight as the bookies suggest, and I think these numbers justify 1u Norris 8/11.

UK Open Quarter Finals

Looks like Wright is going to have to do it the hard way. Barney's easily the worst person he could draw, this does open up potential each way coups, Whitlock and Huybrechts at 9/1 and 10/1 respectively might be worth a play and hope they don't draw the Wright/Barney winner, not sure about anyone else at current market value.

The lines for today's games all seem very even outside of the main event with Huybrechts being the shortest priced player at 8/11, while the lines say Wright wins two times out of three. Looking at the last one first, we did analyse this for the Premier League preview article, which had Wright as the favourite - but not by much. Factoring in more data than when I looked at that one, and I think it becomes closer. That said, Wright's started better in the Premier League, and his results to get here look a lot more convincing than Barney's, who's had to work to beat people who were last relevant when Anderson was still with the BDO. Hard not to back Barney at nearly 2/1, but I'll hold off on this.

First up is Huybrechts at 8/11 against Norris at 13/10, I think that Kim has had the scare against Cullen and should be stronger for it, and he was incredible against Evetts, Norris hasn't been truly tested by any of Meeuwisse, van de Pas or Smith. The figures on both have Huybrechts as a solidly better player, mainly through hitting a lot more twelve darters than Norris does, this is enough for me to fire 1u Huybrechts 8/11.

Game two is Price at 11/10 against White at 5/6. White's not had a real tough game so far, a lineup of Barham, Shepherd and Lukeman is not that difficult and he's dropped 12 legs so far. Price has dropped fifteen against Pipe, Pallett and Hogan, which is considerably more difficult. On the figures I have, White is a lot better on hitting 12 darters, at 12% as opposed to 7%, but Price has more in fifteen or less (including those killed in 12), making it only a percentage point different as to how often each player should hold their throw. Very even contest so I'll pass this one.

Last game to look at is Whitlock against Gurney, Gurney's lost just 10 legs in getting through Roy, Webster and van der Voort, Whitlock was untouchable against Quantock but has been pushed a bit more by van Duijvenbode and O'Connor. Whitlock has the form - winning on the floor while Gurney needed to start in round 2, on the information I have Whitlock is hitting more twelve darters, more fifteen darters, Gurney has a small edge in having less won legs go past 18 darts, but Whitlock holds 75% of the time to Gurney's 67%, which is a decent edge. Is it enough to bet at 4/5? Just about I think, 1u Whitlock 4/5.

Should be able to look into the semi finals in a bit of depth, the final itself given the quick turn around time would just be an indication of a bet and nothing else.

Saturday 4 March 2017

UK Open Round 5

LOL Lewis

Betting was pretty much a trainwreck. Evetts bet was an outsider which needed two things to happen, when Huybrechts averages as he did it's not even close to one of them happening, Klaasen being broken in a deciding leg having held a solid lead and having a match dart is awful, Michael and Pallett really didn't show

Scanning the lines, White/Lukeman (nice job on beating Dobey, didn't see that coming) looks to be lined up right, Hogan/Price being close to evens seems fine, given Hogan's wins I don't see why Price isn't a dog but you can't just look at form over the last 24 hours, Whitlock being solidly ahead of O'Connor seems fine, 1/5 or so is too short, Smith being a small favourite over Norris also seems right, Gurney seems a bit too short against van der Voort, Klaasen wasn't even that short and he's clearly better than Gurney, so 0.5u van der Voort 2/1, Huybrechts against Cullen is another exciting matchup, Kim being more or less 4/7 across the board looks like it is worth a piece if he plays anywhere near as well as he did against Evetts, 1u Huybrechts 4/7, which just leaves Cross against Wright - Wright seems too short to bet, but I'm not sure if Cross can nick it enough given the form Wright's in.

UK Open Round 4

Dropped another tiny fraction of a unit on round 3, very surprised that Baxter was able to pull through. Round 4 coming up, some more interesting matchups:

Alan Tabern - John Michael: Close to even money this one, Tabern came through Robertson, Carroll and King, while Michael beat Hudson and Dolan, both in deciding legs. I think Michael has the edge here in terms of limited stats I have on each of them, and he's probably been playing more frequently at a higher level, so I'll lean for 0.5u Michael 10/11

Gerwyn Price - Dave Pallett: Price came through Pipe fairly comfortably and is installed as a 2-1 favourite against Pallett, who saw off Andy Jenkins and then Beaton. The numbers I have on Pallett are actually really good, and Beaton isn't that much worse than Price is. Question is whether the price makes it worth the bet, I'll go for yes: 0.5u Pallett 7/4

Ronnie Baxter - Willie O'Connor: Baxter rolled back the years beating Rowley, North and Webster, while O'Connor beat Lennon and Todd convincingly, nearly hitting a nine in the process. Those scorelines tempt me towards him given he's only a tiny favourite, but I have such limited information on Baxter and he's already beaten a better player than O'Connor this weekend, so will leave it alone.

Mark Webster - Daryl Gurney: A World Championship rematch with Gurney being installed as a bit more than a 60% favourite - that match was only 4-3, and while Gurney beat Palmer and Roy, Webster beat Bunting then came from behind against Twell to edge it. Gurney's numbers however are solidly better, so I'll agree with the bookied and think he has a decent but not prohibitive edge.

Chris Dobey - Martin Lukeman: Dobey's much more experienced than Lukeman, who survived infinite match darts in round 3 to win 10-9, he should advance comfortably but not really knowing too much about Lukeman I don't want to punt when the best we can get has Dobey as greater than a 75% favourite.

Kim Huybrechts - Ted Evetts: Kim had issues with Woods, only getting through 10-8, while Evetts beat Milford and then Gilding with a convincing 10-5 scoreline. Huybrechts' stats are a lot better than Evetts over a much bigger sample, but we are getting a big price on Ted and I think he has played a big stage enough that he can nick this enough to be worth the shot: 0.25u Evetts 7/2

Ryan Searle - Rob Cross: I have no figures on either, Cross is a small favourite, while Searle is fairly local so may have some support. Cross has done a bit better on the tour this season and clearly likes the venue, but I don't know enough on Searle to punt.

Benito van de Pas - Alan Norris: Benito's only a small favourite, both had fairly easy passes through round 3 in comfortable matchups, I think this will be tight and Benito's overall better play may just outdo Norris having the better recent form.

Jelle Klaasen - Vincent van der Voort: Surprised that Vincent was able to advance that easily over Ronny Huybrechts, while Klaasen had a bit of a struggle with Jonny Clayton before getting through 10-7. I think Klaasen should be able to lock in to what is a great opportunity to go very deep, and the odds look OK given Vincent's poor form - 1u Klaasen 5/11

Joe Cullen - Cristo Reyes: Disappointed that this isn't on either televised board (think board 2 is streamed?), as this is an even game between developing players in form. Reyes got a bye while Cullen dismantled Thornton, should be close and the odds reflect that.

Kirk Shepherd - Ian White: Shepherd's been playing at a good level, but this is a bit of a step up, White easily dealt with Barham while Shepherd took out Barilli then Wayne Jones in a close battle. White's nearly 4/1 on which doesn't seem worth a bet, and I don't know if Kirk steps up enough to bet the dog.

Jermaine Wattimena - Michael Smith: Smith pulled away from Henderson after the game was even early, while Jermaine surprised a few by taking out Kyle Anderson. Smith seems in the best form over the last few weeks that he's been in for a while, but if Wattimena keeps this up he can probably snipe the win enough that the 25% chance the odds indicate seems correct.

Paul Hogan - Adrian Lewis: Lewis looked a bit sluggish in beating Wade but did enough to get through, while Hogan, in being a Riley's qualifier to beat Gary Anderson, caused the biggest story in the UK Open since a Riley's qualifier beat Gary Anderson. I think Lewis' numbers are better than his form suggests, Hogan is not completely dead obviously, but Lewis is a big favourite.

Simon Whitlock - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Whitlock looked really good in professionally clearing out Chris Quantock and has generally been in the best form he has for years in 2017. van Duijvenbode took out Kellett then was fairly comfortable in a 10-5 win over Kist. Whitlock should advance.

Raymond van Barneveld - Ron Meulenkamp: Barney didn't really kick into top gear but was able to get through a scrappy game against Barrie Bates, while Meulenkamp beat Royden Lam then both Lee and Ricky Evans. Meulenkamp's a 6/1 dog, and I have enough of a sample size on him to think that he won't even get there that much: 2u van Barneveld 1/6

Dave Chisnall - Peter Wright: The new favourite got what is one of the hardest draws he could get against Chizzy, but is a 2/1 favourite. This looks pretty close to correct looking at the stats and extrapolating the match, and I think that while Wright played like a god on Thursday, it's countered by the pressure of now being a favourite and also that Chisnall has a small head to head lead, so will leave it alone.

Friday 3 March 2017

UK Open Round 3

Holy crap, MvG withdrew. Which opens up the tournament to the likes of Lewis, Wade... oops.

Finished up 6-10 on rounds 1/2, for a loss of 1.15 units. Nothing much to say, most of the losses were on the quarter unit plays which prevented a bigger downswing, very surprised that Lerchbacher didn't get through after his form at the weekend, and Jenkins going out and not looking close while doing so also seems like a shock. Nice for Reyes to get the day off, although I think we'd all have liked to see a rerun of his worlds match.

So on to round 3, oddschecker is offering hugely incomplete coverage, it's now up to a race to 10 so there's a bit less variance coming up, have opened up three bookies and grabbing the best line where possible:

William O'Connor - Mick Todd: Nothing, O'Connor seems slightly better so ignoring this
Darren Webster - Ronnie Baxter: 1u Webster 2/5, cannot see Baxter rolling back the years over this distance
Alan Norris - Yordi Meeuwisse: Best we can get is 1/4 Norris which seems too short
Peter Wright - James Richardson: Wright's double digits odds on which isn't worth it
Kim Huybrechts - Brian Woods: 1u Huybrechts 1/6, don't really believe in Woods and Huybrechts seems in form
Mervyn King - Alan Tabern: King should ease through but we're not offered the right price
Ross Twell - Mark Webster: Not sure Webster doesn't randomly choke rarely enough to get on at 2/9
Robert Thornton - Joe Cullen: 1u Cullen 10/11, in a pick em Cullen's stats are better. Thornton wasn't tested in round 2 and this is a big step up in class
Kyle Anderson - Jermaine Wattimena: 1u Anderson 1/2, Wattimena isn't that impressive and Anderson's been great the last six months
Jamie Caven - Dave Chisnall: Chizzy's rightly heavily odds on, no value here
Chris Dobey - Kevin Painter: 1u Dobey 8/13, Painter isn't that far off in a short format but this is long enough that Dobey's class will show
Chris Quantock - Simon Whitlock: Whitlock moves on but is too short
Alex Roy - Daryl Gurney: 1/5 Gurney's tempting but will leave it
Jonny Clayton - Jelle Klaasen: 0.25u Clayton 3/1, Klaasen wasn't great yesterday so this may be just about live
Martin Lukeman - Rob Hewson: Not enough time to think about players with limited information
John Michael - Brendan Dolan: Dolan rightly a favourite, it's close to a bet but Michael's too much of a wildcard when we can't even get 1/2
Gary Anderson - Paul Hogan: Intriguing match but Ando's too short and I don't think Hogan pulls the upset enough to punt
Matthew Dennant - Benito van de Pas: Best price on Benito is 1/8? Really?
Justin Pipe - Gerwyn Price: 1u Price 8/11, Pipe's not got good enough figures to be able to run Price close enough
Mick McGowan - Ryan Searle: Don't know enough on Searle to bet here. McGowan's steady but that's it, he's too big of a favourite to go with the known quantity
Vincent van de Voort - Ronny Huybrechts: 0.5u Huybrechts 7/4, form player is a good price
Dave Pallett - Steve Beaton: Beaton about a 65% favourite seems fine
Wayne Jones - Kirk Shepherd: Tempted by a Shepherd bet, but will avoid
Andrew Gilding - Ted Evetts: Evetts is really solid but it's priced as a flip which seems too much
Ron Meulenkamp - Ricky Evans: Lot of variance here and there's no big price either way, so will not bet
Adrian Lewis - James Wade: Bookies have Lewis a small favourite, if anything the value is on Wade but there's not enough of it
Christian Kist - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Kist seems rightly priced at about 8/15 or so, not rushing to bet on either at those odds
Ian White - Paul Barham: 1u White 1/6, should be far too solid
John Henderson - Michael Smith: Smith seems the form guy, but cocks it up too much to bet
Rob Cross - Johnny Haines: Can't even get 1/2 on Cross, he should win but you never know
Raymond van Barneveld - Barrie Bates: 2006 all over again, Barney too short