Monday 31 October 2022

Smith wins major shocker

Oh Michael, when will you ever win one. Delighted for Smudger, who's locked up a solid seeding at the worlds, as well as a Grand Slam spot. God knows what they're going to do with the Premier League at this stage, I think there's basically a 0% chance that both Noppert and Smith get into it. We'll have to wait and see, naturally, but there's going to be some people who are going to be pretty disappointed not to make it.

New FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Gerwyn Price
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Luke Humphries (UP 1)
7 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)
8 Nathan Aspinall
9 Jonny Clayton
10 James Wade
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 4)
12 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)
13 Damon Heta (DOWN 1)
14 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
15 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
16 Ross Smith (NEW)
17 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
18 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
19 Krzysztof Ratajski (DOWN 1)
20 Chris Dobey

Smith's final run sees him close the gap on Price to under 70k, so still a real big run needed before closing him down. Smith's win has got him into the top 16, and may get a free spot over Cullen by the end of the week. Dirk's the biggest mover who was already here, just getting enough to nudge past van den Bergh, while Dobey needed everything to get past Anderson, who drops out of the top 20. Lower down, van der Voort is just a couple of hundred points behind Lewis for a top 20 spot, Rodriguez edges past Suljovic to become the new Austrian number 1, Rock is solidly into the top 40, while Sedlacek enters the top 64.

We're now heading into the last two Pro Tours of the year next Friday/Saturday, along with the qualifier for the Slam straight after once we know who's getting the 16th spot. Should be Cross as mentioned before, but who knows what will happen.

Sunday 30 October 2022

Yeah, that was a short post, but what can you do

Wasn't expecting the quarters to start until 45 minutes later than they actually did, whoops. Still, nothing of value was lost, and the upshot is we're going to have a second (no, Joe, the Masters doesn't count) new major champion of the season. I called the most likely to do so at the start of the season as Smith, Cullen, Humphries, Chisnall and Ratajski, and, well, one of them is there, as we've got Michael against Dirk and then Chris Dobey against Ross Smith, who did some impressive running off of legs to turn it around from 3-8 against Wright, but was helped a bit. This does have Grand Slam implications as one of Dobey or Smith will get a spot, whoever wins - Smith (Michael) and van Duijvenbode are already there, but this is going to push the number of spots from the Players Championship series down to one, so bad luck Dolan who was currently there. Cross looks pretty strongly favoured having two in the bank and having a ranking advantage over everyone else, so it's going to take someone with one bink to go back to back, and other than Rock (who could steal the spot and give the Dev Tour spot to Keane Barry) and maybe Adrian Lewis, it's hard to say who can win two of them. Dimitri I suppose could?

In the semis, it's going to be incredibly hard to call a winner. Dirk maybe has the slightest of edges over Smith and looked really good against Noppert, call it 52/48 for DvD. Dobey maybe should be a small underdog against Smith, maybe 45/55. That said, Dobey played fantastically well hitting five four visit kills out of ten legs won, so can we call that one a flip as well?

In terms of a final, DvD ought to be a bit shorter than 1/2 against Dobey. Maybe a bit longer against Ross, calling it 68% and 63%. Michael ought to win the Smith derby 61% of the time, and Dobey 66% of the time. So it's favouring the top half winner around about the same amount whoever it is. The market in the semi is giving Smith the small edge, can't see a line for the other semi yet, but given we've seen no value anywhere, I doubt we do. I've indicated where I think the line should be, so if something's way out of kilter and we don't see Dobey at around 5/4, or Smith around 4/5, you know where to go.

It looks as if Greaves has nearly done enough to get to Ally Pally, having got up to seven straight binks and now being at the stage where she just needs to match Sherrock's result to get there. Fallon would then miss out, but hold on, didn't the PDC leave a qualifier open? Call it the "marketing department needs this" qualifier? But never mind that, PRAKASH FUCKING JIWA HAS QUALIFIED!

Nothing of value in the quarters

As you were

Friday 28 October 2022

Euro Championship round 2

Christ, the Rock hype is getting a little bit silly now. 28/1 pre Aspinall, 22/1 this morning, 18/1 now, at some point it's actually going to hit what should be fair market value. Just going to blast through round two as it's quite late now:

Wade/van Duijvenbode - Almost tempted with Dirk here. First to ten he's up nearer to 75% than 70%. 8/15 is a tempting proposition, but Wade's already been a bit of a luckbox and does like this sort of format generally, so I'll pass a moderate edge and probably regret it in the morning.

Humphries/Searle - Market seems favoured a bit too much towards Humphries. Approaching 1/2 does not seem quite right, both played well in round one, thinking Ryan's got better than 40% chances in this one, but not by a great deal. 13/8 is worth considering.

Smith/Rock - We're actually not going to bet on Josh here, despite him clearly having a little bit of TV nerves, but shrugging them off. We can only get 10/11, and we're only seeing 57%. The market's not quite caught up yet, but it has done enough that it's not a play. This could easily be the game of the year.

van der Voort/Noppert - Interesting Dutch derby this one, and one that Danny should be easily favoured in. We're talking nearer to 80% than 75%. Sadly the bookies have worked it out as well and price him at 1/3. Meh.

Dobey/de Sousa - Jose looked good against Schindler, Chris also looked good against van Gerwen (albeit getting a bit lucky). Seems like de Sousa should have a moderate edge in this tie, pretty much smack in between 55% and 60%. He's 4/6, so we can't recommend a play.

Wright/Rodriguez - Peter surely can't believe his luck to have two of the other top three in the rankings crash out, avoiding what would have been a tie of the round against Gerwyn here. Still, Rowby got through, not brilliant but got the job done. Looks a pure 80/20 in favour of Snakebite. Maybe a fraction undervalued, definitely no value.

Smith/van den Bergh - Both players averaged about 101 and a half, good showings all round. Ross is definitely live here, would say a spot over 40%. 11/8 is disappointingly close to where I see the line.

Chisnall/Clayton - Dave got the only whitewash of the opening round over Bunting, a little bit surprised but Dave is in good form of late, Clayton just about had enough to defeat Clemens, and enters as a small favourite. That looks more or less right to me, maybe the line should be a little bit tighter than it is (I would have said 11/10 Chizzy vig free and 6/5 is available), but not much.

So no bets. Dirk's clearly the closest, Searle and Rock are tempters, but there's nothing whatsoever in the evening session.

Thursday 27 October 2022

Euro Championship round 1 thoughts and tips

Let's go, we've got sixteen matches to work through, eight each today and tomorrow, what value can we find?

van Duijvenbode/Razma - Madars' game has come on quite a bit in the last eighteen months up to the point where he is in the conversation for getting a worlds seed, in particular his B/C game has caught up quite a bit as he could always put together a short spell of 11-12 dart legs. But Dirk's just so consistent nowadays and has a much higher ceiling. He's 1/3, and even that looks a bit long - I'd say nearer to 80% than 75% chances for DvD in this one. Not enough edge to bet, but looks very good for accumulators.

Searle/Lukeman - This is going to be an interesting one, Ryan's seemingly been lacking form over the last few months, or at least it feels that way, and he goes up against Lukeman, who hasn't put up spectacular numbers but has used every bit of them to get good results. Martin might have a bit more than a one in three shot here, the market's priced him at 13/8 which looks to me to be more or less spot on.

Noppert/Gilding - Danny is kind of in the equation to content at any tournament he plays in now, while Andrew is approaching the heights that he had back when he had his UK Open run - although he did have a bit of a bad Players Championship session just recently, which might be a bit of a concern for confidence. Season long, I'm actually calling it a coinflip, but if we focus on smaller and smaller samples, it goes from the line (we can get 6/4 on Gilding) looking right, to Noppert being enormously favoured. I think if you want to go with form and believe that the Gilding wheels have already fallen off, you've got to consider Noppert here.

Cross/Wade - This could have, and probably should have been a Premier League match this season, but lolpdc I guess, it's one of the picks of the opening round in any case and has no business being a last 32 matchup. Wade's been fairly quiet all year, and Cross has to an extent, but set out a marker by claiming a second Pro Tour of the season this past week. I'm thinking 65/35 Cross, so maybe 4/6 has small value. Not a bad one to put in an acca again I guess, but there's not the edge to recommend a straight play here.

Humphries/Ratajski - This one's pretty spicy for a 1 v 32 seed matchup. Krzysztof could do with a result here after a moderately disappointing 2022 to date, while Luke's made the European Tour his own this season and continues to look like a contender for major events. Luke is a little bit overvalued here at 1/2, I've only got him at about 62%, so this isn't one for an acca, but at 15/8 I can't see quite enough edge to recommend going on the Pole here either.

Aspinall/Rock - OK, this is the one I want to see. Nathan is resurgent in 2022, while Rock is arguably the best player in the world right now, and the bookies have him shaded as the slight favourite (albeit only at 10/11). They're catching up to the Rock hype train, but not quite enough here, as I've got Rock 65/35, and even if we cut down to more recent months where Nathan's put that injury issue behind him, it doesn't get any better. 0.25u Rock 10/11

Smith/Sedlacek - Karel's been one of the stories of the season, romping home in all the qualifiers and making the event as a non-card holder (nearly had two actually) as well as having a top eight finish in the Challenge Tour, one more win in either of the finals he lost and he gets his card back automatically. Michael continues to play at a top ten level and should take this one, but 1/3 is a little bit too short. Karel has a bit more than a 30% shot at this one, albeit not quite one in three. We can get slightly north of 5/2 on Sedlacek in a couple of places which isn't really tempting enough to consider taking a flyer.

Heta/van der Voort - Damon hugely boosted his seeding with the Gibraltar win, and picked up another Pro Tour just recently to solidify his credentials as an elite player, although it's not truly translated to big TV majors as of late. Vincent is hanging around the top 32, haven't really noticed him doing a great deal or mentioned him much in 2022, but is clearly still playing good darts, however this looks like a bit of a mismatch. Heta is 2/5 on Spreadex, but I'm seeing it shorter than that, the 1/3 that's generally available ought to be more like 1/4 if the bookies want an edge. If you have Spreadex then take the price, 1/3 isn't quite enough for me though.

Chisnall/Bunting - Dave picked up a Pro Tour this weekend, which is a bit more than Stephen's done this year, although the Bullet is still playing more than competent darts, a clip of 92 per turn isn't bad at all albeit a point shorter than Dave is. Seems an evenly poised contest, and a good one to start the Friday session. 55/45 Chizzy for me, market has it a little shorter but 8/5 isn't quite enough to go with the former Lakeside champion in this one.

van den Bergh/Gurney - Two players here who had a pretty torrid time in the past weekend, but will look to put that behind them and maybe go on a hero run and force their way into the Grand Slam - you might expect Gurney to not be there but Dimitri is currently an odd omission. The Belgian ought to take this one, but Daryl is good enough to maybe nick it one time in three. He's 13/8 so we wouldn't consider that, Dimi at 8/15 isn't worth the play either.

Cullen/Smith - Joe continues to get better results than his statistics suggest which isn't a bad trait to have, while Ross continues to be a bit up and down but has shown flashes in the past couple of months. I find it hard to separate the two, and so do the bookies - as such, I'd lean towards the 6/5 side that you can get on Smith, but it's not really enough to bet, especially considering that Joe is one of the players that my model tends to slightly underrate for as yet unknown reasons.

de Sousa/Schindler - Martin is the clear German number one at this stage even if the rankings don't show it yet, a good couple of points more scoring than Clemens is no joke. For once he gets an OK major draw, although Jose has been picking up his game since round about the Matchplay and is showing enough to be slightly favoured in the model I've got. 4/6 is a bit more than slightly favoured and should not be considered for an acca, but a best of 13/10 on Martin isn't enough to get excited about either.

Wright/Meikle - This is actually a rematch from a Pro Tour semi last weekend, which Snakebite won 7-2, and as the shortest priced player in the field for their first round match, the market is expecting more of the same. Ryan's a good player who can produce really high quality darts now and again which make you think he should be in the running to nick a Pro Tour at some point if he can put it together for a full day, but this is a tough ask. I don't even see a one in four chance, so a typical 7/2 price isn't worth the risk.

Price/Rodriguez - Gerwyn comes in favoured here against the runner up from Trier, and I think he should have little problems taking out Rowby here. Not quite as favoured as Wright is for my money (I have Rowby as a bit over a one in four chance, rather than a bit under), but the line looks spot on.

van Gerwen/Dobey - Feels like we've seen this one a few times on TV, and it should be decent. van Gerwen has probably played the best darts of anyone all year, albeit not by a massive margin, and Chris is showing enough that he at least has a chance in this one, although MvG is approaching a 70/30 favourite status for me. 11/4 on the underdog is at least worth considering, wouldn't be putting van Gerwen in any accumulators as Dobey is dangerous, but I'd probably need north of 3/1 to actually start to recommend a play.

Clayton/Clemens - Jonny and Gabriel close out the day, and it's a similar match to the previous in terms of favouritism, Clemens hasn't quite hit his top game for some time (he does at least have a Pro Tour final this year, but didn't win a leg), while Clayton also only has the one final which he lost to Brendan Dolan of all people. 70/30 Clayton for me, another case of 1/3 being too short but there is nowhere near the edge to go with the German for an underdog flyer.

Expect round two thoughts on Friday night.

Tuesday 25 October 2022

180 in 180 - oh my

I have done this at some point before. Basically what I do is take my database, filter down to the last 180 days, and filter down to who has played 180 legs which are recognised in my database during that timeframe. Now I'm a leading conductor of the Josh Rock hype train, but this is, shall we say, disturbing:

Now that's some really, really shitty splicing to get everything into one png, but if you needed any excuses to get on to the Rock hype train, this is one of them. He's scoring more than anybody else in the world. CHOO CHOO!

Sunday 23 October 2022

If you smellllllllllllllll......

It's happened, Josh Rock's finally got a bink at the end of an interesting four days where he made a final earlier, losing out to Chisnall, while Cross and Heta also got binks. Let's post up the new FRH rankings, which include European Championship mincashes (if you exclude them, Rydz would hold #20 still):

1 Peter Wright
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Gerwyn Price
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Nathan Aspinall
9 Jonny Clayton
10 James Wade
11 Dimitri van den Bergh
12 Damon Heta (UP 3)
13 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
14 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
16 Ryan Searle (DOWN 2)
17 Dave Chisnall
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Gary Anderson
20 Chris Dobey (NEW)

Dirk made a final which is enough to get past Searle, Heta's closing in on the top 10 after getting two semis along with his bink. Lower down, Rock is now inside the top 40, a bit of a resurgent weekend for Alan Soutar sees him get up to #42, Mike de Decker looked alright and is now inside the top 60, while Ricardo Pietreczko got to a semi final as well as cashing all four events to get on the verge of the top 100.

Quite a few players had bad weekends of note. Dimitri bricked all four events, Searle only managed the one win, Gurney bricked the first three then skipped the fourth, Gilding did the same as Searle (only beating Keane Barry who also had a bad weekend, and most concerning was Ian White not getting any cash. He didn't play badly outside of one game, just didn't get results, and you have to go back to April for the last time he won a board. He's currently outside of the seeds for the worlds by nearly 20k, and he's now outside of the Pro Tour spots on tiebreakers. That would be unthinkable a couple of years ago, but it's very much a reality right now. Also on the outside looking in just looking at the main order of merit tour card race are Devon Petersen (who is at needing a bink stage, having lost in the African qualifier somehow), Ryan Joyce (who's only £250 out and looked a bit better this weekend), Labanauskas is going to need to rely on his Nordic/Baltic ranking, then the next man out is Steve Lennon, who at 7.5k back is going to need a miracle.

This does take me on to one thing I did want to take a look at, and that's super early warning signs as to who is in danger of losing a tour card next time around. The simple thing I think to look at is players who were in the top 64 at the end of the season, but who did not make the worlds. This one seems a pretty simple thing to look at logically - if you have not made the worlds, you must be doing pretty darned mediocre on the Pro Tour, so you're probably not making any other majors or otherwise have little in the bank, so a huge percentage of what you are defending will be coming off your ranking in the next twelve months. Who would these players have been for this season? They'd be:

Jeffrey de Zwaan, Steve West, Andy Boulton, Keegan Brown, Mike de Decker, Boris Krcmar, John Henderson, Max Hopp

This is how far they are all off retaining without any provisional money added:

de Decker currently safe
Krcmar currently safe
Brown 3250
Boulton 9500
Henderson 11750
de Zwaan 17250
Hopp 19000
West 25750

Krcmar's had a good UK Open run as well as going deep in multiple floor events, so that's one way to do it, will be in the worlds by the looks of things and could force his way into the Players Championship Finals. de Decker has similarly been solid enough on the floor to put himself provisionally in the worlds (just), as well as looking real solid for making the Players Championship Finals. Of the others, Brown clearly managed a bink from nowhere so with mincashes from majors he's going to make should be fine. Boulton is looking a bit dicey, but at just £250 off making the PC Finals, he could put together a run there to give himself a chance, he's a bit far off the worlds qualification cutoff but he feels like the sort of player who would have a very good chance of winning the PDPA qualifier. Henderson is only a couple of grand off making Minehead, so again could put himself into contention. de Zwaan isn't in Minehead right now, and isn't overly close, but is the last man in the worlds as of right now due to good European Tour performances, so one good weekend in early November and a decent draw, and he could save his card. Hopp is not overly close to either, but could backdoor into the worlds through the German Superleague and did make a first quarter today since god knows how long. West, barring a PDPA qualifier win and a hero run, is basically going to Q-School.

So who can we project as being in danger next season? Looking at the tour card race projections, you're looking at White, Joyce, Hempel, Petersen, Lennon, Lewy Williams, Murnan, Meulenkamp and Kuivenhoven. That said, players from probably Lennon down with the exception of Williams (who is guaranteed to retain a card anyway through the Development Tour, he's fourth behind Rafferty, Rock and Barry who all have cards for next season already) could easily be nudged down and out of a tour card next season if people have good worlds runs who are just below them in the rankings.

Next couple of days I'm going to update the 2nd/3rd Division Darts which I've not done for some time, post an updated 180 in 180 power rankings list, as well as get some European Championship projections up. Probably do the second of those tomorrow as we're hitting the business end of the season.

Monday 17 October 2022

Gib done

One of our five picks to be a new Euro Tour winner actually became a Euro Tour winner! Incredible! That makes it up to two correct picks that we made in January (three if you could saying Noppert would win a Euro Tour and he then went one better and binked a major). Heta got the bink, a bit fortunate in the final with missed doubles, but a win is a win and it gives him a nice boost up both the rankings and the Euro Tour finals seedings, all the way up to number 5 behind just Humphries, MvG, Wright and Cross. Not bad, we knew he had the talent, now it's translated to a title.

New FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Gerwyn Price
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Nathan Aspinall
9 Jonny Clayton
10 James Wade
11 Dimitri van den Bergh
12 Jose de Sousa
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ryan Searle
15 Damon Heta (UP 1)
16 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
17 Dave Chisnall
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Gary Anderson
20 Callan Rydz

Not a huge amount of movement, but Heta had a fair bit of a jump to make, and I would expect him to get past Searle moderately soon. Aspinall's recent money is bringing him up near to both Humphries and Cross, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pass them both with a moderately good series of performances at a four game span of Pro Tours starting later this week.

Lower down, Clemens making a quarter pushes him up to #23, Rock is now inside the top 60, and will surely be within the top 50 in due course.

We're now getting to the business end of the season - we're getting a bunch of players clinch world championship spots with Ben Robb, Diogo Portela and some Ukrainian guy locking up places, Robert Owen and Danny van Trijp got high enough in the Challenge Tour with Scott Williams looking safe through the Pro Tour, it's definitely getting close. There's some tasty ties in the European Championship - Ratajski just sneaking in to play Humphries after qualifying thanks to a win by, er, Luke Humphries ought to be good, Aspinall/Rock seems like an immediate highlight, van Gerwen/Dobey is usually value, and there's a lot of games which look like they should be competitive.

Another weekend sadly with a WDF event with zero coverage on Dart Connect or similar. It sounds like Darren Johnson won one, but who knows.

Sunday 16 October 2022

Gib quarters

Another solid enough day, Rock completing the comeback, DvD blowing a huge lead including some inexplicable shot choices (throwing for the match at 5-3, after six perfect he then crazily doesn't go for the bull after missing dart 7, which would have left him something in the high 70 range and an almost guaranteed dart at double, as was he left 84, only got a shot at the bull, missed the 25 and didn't get lucky, then misses two match darts), before Heta rolls Cullen as we would expect. Through to the quarters, I'll have a quick look now, Ratajski has clinched the #32 seed, also Scott Williams has secured all the Challenge Tour win benefits, but we're in a moderately tight tussle for 2nd/3rd right now.

Humphries/Wright - This should be pretty decent. Luke's the #1 seed but comes in as a market dog. It's nearly enough to play, I'm calling it a flip, and 6/4 on Betfair seems like it should be a play, but Wright showed nothing that made me mildly hesitant in the last sixteen. I won't officially call the shot, but wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Luke in this one.

Rock/Cross - This one should also be fun. Both players are looking for a first Euro Tour, Cross being a surprise that he's still not got one, while Rock getting one on the Rock would write its own headlines. We can only get evens on Josh, which is either the market finally adjusting, or they're undervaluing Cross a bit. I wouldn't hate the Josh play, but I've only got him at 54%, which is less of an edge than what I turned down on Humphries.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - A major final rematch, van Gerwen finished the match against de Sousa well after an indifferent first few legs, while Nathan needed to come from a 5-2 deficit for yet another comeback. You know, the sort of thing he nearly did to van Gerwen last week. Market is thinking a bit more than 60/40 on Michael, I think it should be slightly wider and see it as a 2-1 edge, counterpoint would be that Aspinall is doing "name on the trophy" sort of stuff... not the edge I need, so an easy ignore.

Clemens/Heta - Gabriel's not dropped much of anything so far, while Heta also only dropped one leg in a couple of quick games to finish the session. Looks like this should be comfortable for Damon, looking like the largest favourite of the round at 70/30 in my projections. I can only see the one line so far and that puts Heta at 2/5, so we'll have no bets.

Won't be able to find any time before the semis, but should have time to roundup today's stuff later.

Gib round 3

Another nice small pick up with Rock getting the job done, Edhouse couldn't quite do the same but he wasn't given too many chances outside of what he took, just the one leg where he had a couple of darts to finish 86. Oh well, it's still green for the day, so let's have a quick look at the round three games.

Humphries/Plaisier - This is an enormous game, Plaisier is in the Euro Championships with a win (over Ratajski) which barring a freak Suljovic or Joyce bink will finalise the field, shame he hits the number one seed. This is priced at Humphries winning around 75% of the time. That is maybe slightly harsh, but I'm only seeing 30% chances for Wesley so I'm not sensing enough edge to take the underdog here.

Searle/Wright - This would be a decent spot for Ryan to pick up a bit of confidence against Wright, who wasn't really tested in his opening game and could be a little bit slow to start potentially. The bookies don't really agree, putting the line around 65/35 in favour of the world champion. Similar to the previous game, I think that undervalues Searle a touch, but I'm only getting him slightly over 40%, which if he had been getting results or did have a really impressive win I might start to think about it, but he isn't, and while he was OK in round two, it wasn't enough to make me stop and think.

Rock/Clayton - Josh looked solid against Smith and probably had another gear to move into if needed, which he didn't, while Jonny got off to a quick start against Bunting and didn't need to do a great deal to get home after that. Market is thinking Clayton a bit better than 60/40, I'm seeing a flip. 0.25u Rock 8/5 on Hills, the 6/4 in a few places also looks OK, 11/8 might be pushing it.

Cross/Joyce - Rob comfortably dispatched Rusty in the first game of the session, while Joyce nicked one against Noppert and is one of two wildcards who can force his way into the Euro field with a miracle run. Looks about 60/40 to Cross for me, and Joyce is 6/4. Anyway...

van Gerwen/de Sousa - Michael continues to look like the best player in the world and needed most of his best game against Beaton who really only had one mediocre leg which ended up being the decisive break. Jose continues to improve, the first leg yesterday was basically a dumpster fire but was faultless after that. Looks 65/35 in favour of MvG to me, the market is favouring him ever so slightly more, but we need better than just over 2/1 on the Portuguese number one before we can start to think about betting on him.

Aspinall/van Duijvenbode - This one should be fun, two players here who needed every leg - Dirk leaving Lowe sat on tops for the match, while Aspinall came from 5-0 down somehow against van der Voort. Bookies have it evens, I'm thinking there is a solid enough edge on Dirk to play here. 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11 on Hills, most other places are a fair bit shorter, Nathan's been playing well of late but I'm seeing Dirk at 62%, and Dirk hasn't exactly been struggling.

Suljovic/Clemens - Two unseeded players here, Mensur eliminated Gerwyn Price by taking advantage of a couple of sloppy legs, while Dimitri wasn't really at the races against Clemens who dropped one leg without really being in top form himself. This appears very tight to me, the market gives Suljovic the tiniest of edges, I see Clemens having the tiniest of edges, but 6/5 on Coralbrokes isn't quite enough to fire on.

Heta/Cullen - Last game of the day, Damon didn't look brilliant against Dobey but did enough to get the job done, Cullen was fine against Ritchie outside of a couple of bad legs where he got broken. Seems like a solid edge for Damon here around the 65/35 region. Maybe I underestimate Cullen, but it's not enough not to bet. 0.25u Heta evs on Boyles, widely available 10/11 is also perfectly fine.

So three plays, I wasn't expecting that many, but we're on three quality players here which should give us some value.

Saturday 15 October 2022

Gib round 2

Safe day one, both bets in the bank - Hendo ran Edhouse close, Smith not so much, very short on time this morning so just going to go through matches real quickly:

Cross/Rusty looks a perfect line.
Searle seems a touch undervalued vs O'Connor (who looked decent) but not enough to recommend a play.
Similar story with Plaisier, not quite enough. Chizzy coming into form doesn't help the cause.
Dirk probably shouldn't be quite as short as he is vs Lowe, but it's only minor.
Joyce is kind of tempting at 7/4 in a couple of places, I'm getting approaching 45% chances against Noppie, but he didn't look good yesterday and he is under a lot of pressure to get a result here, so will pass it up.
de Sousa/Rowby looks a good line.
Heta seems real close to a good play? I'm only getting Dobey at 30%, which seems kind of low and I thought it would be higher, 8/13 feels like it should be a bet, Dobey didn't look fantastic yesterday but didn't need to. Hmm, will pass but probably regret it.
Being able to get greater than 2/1 on van der Voort against Aspinall seems fine. I've got around 35%, so maybe slightly long, but close enough, more recent form probably pops him under one in three
0.25u Rock 13/8 vs Smith, this is a pure coinflip, they are extremely evenly matched. 13/8 is easily enough on 365 to play.
Humphries correctly extremely short vs Neyens who showed nothing to make us consider him yesterday.
Hey, Galliano won! Great job. Now you face Wright who is 1/100 in places, lol.
Bunting seems real close to a play at the 2/1 you can get on 365. Looked very good against Gurney (they were actually exactly tied in the FRH rankings before the game which I've never seen before that high up the rankings), think he's very close to 40% against Clayton. Will pass it, model seems to underestimate. Jonny slightly on a consistent basis and there's not quite enough edge in the first place.
Beaton got a controversial bye yesterday, probably isn't quite so much of a dog against van Gerwen as the 6/1 you can get would suggest, but he's still a substantial dog and MvG is playing great, so an easy pass.
Didn't really see a 6-0 for Suljovic coming, but it is what it is. Price is going to be a tougher task, and the 3/1 you can get on Suljovic doesn't seem unfair at all.
Clemens might be ever so slightly undervalued against Dimitri, I'm seeing a touch better than a one in three chance, whereas the oddsmakers are generally giving better than 2/1 but not quite 5/2, there isn't the edge to play but Dimi doesn't seem acca safe, let's put it that way.
The model is really, really loving Edhouse, and puts him at 48% against Cullen! There is a pretty big consistency problem in Ritchie's game with his value being towards the high end of what we typically see, but I think the price we can see is worth a stab, albeit small given that consistency and given that Joe is another player the model typically undervalues. 0.1u Edhouse 7/4.

Friday 14 October 2022

Gib bets

There's frankly not a huge amount here. We do actually have oddschecker and lines for everything, including the qualifiers (oddschecker isn't showing Dobey/Duo, but 365 is saying Dobey 1/50 lol so maybe nobody else is even offering a line), which'll speed things up. Galliano being 3/1 seems alright. Williams correctly a small favourite. Vilerio might be a little too long at 11/2 against an indifferent Lowe, but Jason's not been playing badly, just not getting results, and I wouldn't want to try to quantify what a correct line would be here. Neyens isn't great but Negrette is at least showing what he can do on the Development Tour, and it won't threaten Kenny. Hewitt is better, but Beaton surely closes this out at least 70% of the time, and we'd need Justin to win more than that to start thinking about a bet in all reality.

0.25u Edhouse 8/11 though, only there on Ladbrokes/Coral, but 4/6 and maybe 8/13 are widely available, which seem more than enough where we think someone wins 70% of the time.

0.25u Plaisier 5/6 on Hills, can also get 4/5 in a lot of places. As in the preview we think he's a near 2-1 favourite, so a line that represents 55% for break even looks value. 4/6 is probably the point where we start saying no.

Kantele looks priced as an accurate enough dog. Rowby as a small favourite is fine. Joyce is doing enough despite currently being outside the world spots that we can't seriously think about 9/2 on Parody, although maybe that does underestimate Dyson's chances slightly. Bunting is undervalued at 5/6 against Gurney, but it is not quite enough to consider a bet, if it ticks to 10/11 I would probably take a small stab, standard bet if we got evens. May throw out that as an option on the exchange. Dobey line is lol, Rock should probably be a little shorter, but not much, Meikle isn't bad after all. Schindler is maybe slightly undervalued, but it's by even less much than Rock is. Mensur may be ever so slightly overvalued, but nothing that we can consider betting. Finally Clemens is more or less correctly priced, not being able to get 1/2 against Hunt, we need a lot longer than that to start firing.

So just the two bets, fading Hendo and Smith in the afternoon session.

Thursday 13 October 2022

Euro Tour ending for another season

Sigh, another two withdrawals, which means we get a massive SIX Gibraltan qualifiers. No idea who they are yet, but will come onto that later. Grats to Michael for binking another Grand Prix, Nathan Aspinall making a great comeback but ultimately falling just short. Still, he books his Grand Slam spot (with van Gerwen's bink also securing a place for Luke Humphries), and it does this to the FRH rankings (note that this includes Gibraltar mincashes already, if you want it pre then bump Ratajski above Chisnall):

1 Peter Wright
2 Michael van Gerwen (UP 1)
3 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 1)
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Nathan Aspinall (UP 3)
9 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
10 James Wade (DOWN 1)
11 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)
12 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 2)
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ryan Searle
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode
16 Damon Heta
17 Dave Chisnall
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Gary Anderson
20 Callan Rydz

Big mover is obviously Aspinall, getting back into the top 10, but van Gerwen getting into the top 2 despite not having a world title counting towards his scoring is fairly epic. That said, Price's bink there is counting for less than 70k points in the scoring right now. Cross and Humphries are separated by just 2 points! Dobey's quarter gets him up to 22nd, which will be 21st assuming he beats a home qualifier tomorrow (which he should), a quarter can see him into the top 20. Razma is into the top 30, while Lukeman is just a couple of spots outside of the top 32 now, but will lose to many just around him with all of van der Voort, Suljovic and Rodriguez in Gibraltar.

So, Gibraltar - the big thing is who is going to get through to the European Championship. Dobey was the last man out right now, but will jump Rydz assuming he doesn't fuck it up against a home qualifier, which he shouldn't. Plaisier is still live, getting Jeff Smith and then Dave Chisnall, will need to beat those two as a minimum and probably another player given that we would expect Dobey to climb. van der Voort is close to the cutoff - in right now, but drawing Schindler is not what he would have wanted. Meikle's got an extra £500 of a buffer, but has drawn Rock, who should be absolutely safe with a win.

Let's quickly go through the games we know - won't mention Neyens, Vandenbogaerde, Joyce, Beaton, Lowe or Dobey as they've all drawn qualifiers and would think that apart from Neyens they will all be comfortable. Maybe Justin Hewitt or Dyson Parody can show up and make some of them interesting, but these guys all seem solid enough, although Lowe hasn't been getting results and it is a huge game for Beaton who's looking to stay the right side of the worlds cutoff, while Joyce and Mario are just outside themselves. Smith/Plaisier should be alright, think Wesley has been playing great all year and should be very close to a 2-1 favourite. Williams/O'Connor isn't a bad game, ought to be tight, favouring Jim but only 55/45. Meikle/Rock is a good game between younger players but the upcoming world youth finalist should be a prohibitive 3-1 level of favourite. Bunting/Gurney is a decent one between players who had good Grand Prix showings, don't find it too hard to split them, Bunting looks 60/40. Kantele/Rodriguez is hard to call because we've got fairly limited data on Marko, would think Rusty will be at least winning 70% of the time, but Kantele does have his moments so will probably be cautious. The other Rodriguez against Barry is another clash of younger players who will be looking to be in and around the top 32 this time next year, think Rowby has a very small edge, closer to 55% than a flip. Schindler/van der Voort is probably the pick of the round, Schindler's been playing the better stuff all year and should price approaching 2-1 on. Would guess it may be priced closer in real life, that said as mentioned it's a critical game for Vincent who desperately needs a win. Brown/Suljovic is interesting, we've not mentioned Mensur a great deal this season as he's slipped down the rankings and outside of majors, while if it wasn't for Keegan binking a Pro Tour, I doubt we'd be talking much about him either. Mensur looks slightly better than 55/45, should be tight. Clemens/Hunt looks a mismatch, Adam's had a real bad year and is in real danger of losing his card, Gabriel is taking this 70% of the time. Finally we've got Edhouse and Henderson, Edhouse is comfortably within the world qualification spots right now, Hendo not so much, and I find it hard to call him getting more added here as it looks like another 70/30, obviously in Ritchie's favour.

Will put up some bets in the morning I would think.

Friday 7 October 2022

GP round 3

Frankly I'm more interested in the last weekend of the Development Tour, with it being the run in to the world youth you've got a lot of players over from all around the world that wouldn't otherwise play the dev tour, so will be keeping an eye on any interesting names. No surprises to see that Rock binked the first one, second one just getting under way, but for now we've got four quarter finals. Stupid to have Aspinall on first after a late finish yesterday, but that's lolpdc for you. Only bet I'd consider is Lukeman, with Nathan on a bit of a shorter turnaround than Martin that might help with the percentages based on the odds saying he's fairly underrated. That said, as we've said a few times, Aspinall's done his better work of late, so I can ignore this one safely enough I think.

Wednesday 5 October 2022

GP round 2

Unfortunate result for Heta there puts us down early in the event. Maybe I'm missing something with Cullen? There's absolutely zero in the metrics that suggests anything that he is just a top 20 level guy. I don't know, perhaps he's someone like Clayton who's performed in non-ranked events and just performs a bit better on TV than he does do on the tour. Who knows. Still, if he can get past Price in round two there's no seeds left in that half now, so it becomes wide open. Will crack through both days of round two, I don't expect too many bets, if any, but let's see:

Lewis/Dobey - Couple of players with straight sets wins, Adie in two deciding legs while Dobey was emphatic in the second set to run away with things. Bookies are struggling to separate the two putting Lewis as a small favourite, 94 average is pretty nice in double in format, but is it sustainable? Maybe. Metrics I have can barely separate the two, overall scoring has them 26th and 27th for the year with a modest minimum leg requirement split by only a tenth of a point, Lewis scoring a bit better in winning legs at the expense of consistency giving him around a 55/45 edge. As a small betting favourite, we can't look at this one.

Wright/Ratajski - Rematch from the Matchplay, if we get half as good a game as then we'll have had a treat, Wright was given a good test by Kim while Ratajski handled Rydz in straight sets. This feels like a Wright two times out of three game. Does that give any value on Ratajski? He's 5/2, so I'm thinking he's got a little bit more of a chance than the prevailing market, but it's not enough to consider a punt.

van Gerwen/Bunting - Michael wasn't great against Anderson but didn't need to be, maybe if Gary could have nicked the second set in a decider rather than losing the match it'd have become interesting but he didn't, Bunting didn't need a third set against Dolan with one of the lower winning averages of round one. This is naturally going to be a tough ask, I'm thinking MvG has a little bit of a better chance than Wright, but it's not quite up to 70%. Bunting is similarly underrated by about the same amount, being a tick higher than Ratajski at 11/4. So same scenario really - small edge but not enough to recommend a play.

Clayton/van den Bergh - Final game of Wednesday, Jonny needed to come behind against Dirk whose game fell apart somewhat after winning the first set, while Dimitri went to a deciding leg against Chisnall and just got over the line. Clayton only has a small market edge, they're thinking 55/45, this looks about right. Maybe the Welshman will perform a little bit better, I'd be setting the line a little bit shorter seeing smack in between 55% and 60% winning chances, but again, it's another one where there's not enough edge to consider a play.

Lukeman/Smith - Onto Thursday and we have a great chance for these two, Martin was the second decider winner of the first round surviving a match dart against Wade before getting home, while Ross was down 3-0 in the first set but got back to win the game, being thankful that Gilding took nine darts to get away on throw in the decider in set two. Feels a bit like the last one, with Ross closer to 55% than 60%, and maybe Ross having gone deeper in big events than Martin has will play a factor as this is a bit of uncharted territory outside of that UK Open run a while back. 13/10 Lukeman seems fair enough, no bet.

Gurney/Razma - Both players needed three sets to move on, and both won the deciding set in straight legs, Razma against Ryan Searle and Gurney against Rob Cross. Neither had great averages, I'm guessing Madars had a bit of a nightmare double leg or two, but it's the win that counts. Daryl looks to have a solid 2-1 advantage as he looks to make the quarter finals in an event he has won before, we can get 8/15 which seems fair enough.

Price/Cullen - This becomes wide open for the whole half if Joe can get this upset win, Joe as mentioned won an odd game with Heta where they both won six legs with the exact same average, Price dropped just the one leg against Schindler in a game that just looking at averages didn't seem spectacular. Seems like Price should take this about 70-75% of the time, so do we want to look at 8/15? It's probably one of the closer shots we've had, but maybe as mentioned in the prelude we are underrating Cullen for some as yet undiagnosed reason. Think we can pass this one easily enough.

Aspinall/Noppert - Final game and we have two UK Open winners clashing, Nathan took out Michael Smith with a last set sweep, while Noppie didn't need a third set to eliminate Gabriel Clemens. Think the more recent major winner has a bit of an advantage in this one, getting close to 60% but not quite all the way there. He is 4/5 which implies 55%, not really quite enough to go with a punt.

So, no bets, but there's a few there where if you're a bit more risk averse in terms of pushing small edges, you can get some action.

Monday 3 October 2022

Grand Prix Tuesday thoughts

Caught a little bit of tonight's action after the Leicester/Forest game, obviously we had no punts to power ahead with and thankfully common sense pulled us back from punting on Anderson, not a massive deal of surprise other than Dobey just taking Humphries apart in the second set, was basically unplayable with some huge outshots but still needed to do work to get to said outshots at that stage in the leg in the first place, Dirk's capitulation against Clayton was pretty disappointing, but it is what it is. Eight games tomorrow, still round one and still a really short cut-throat format, what do we have?

Razma/Searle - Honestly don't know what we're going to get here. Searle claims to like the DIDO format, Razma's talking up his double 19 antics which is not unreasonable given his love of that area of the board, I'm favouring Searle fairly heavily in this one but he is priced at shorter than 1/2, this does seem really close to a play on the favourite but there's just enough uncertainty in my mind that I don't want to take the shot. Feels like a game where if he can get the win, we can look again in round two.

Smith/Gilding - Smith's been quiet all year but has been putting up decent enough numbers which has translated into some alright results in the last month to six weeks, which is why he is here in the first place, and that is enough to put him into contention against Gilding, who has been putting up slightly better numbers all year, and unfortunately the markets agree. 5/6 on Gilding may be giving Smith slightly too much credit in a match which will be a fair bit of a clash of styles which you feel would favour Andrew, but I can't see any sort of intangibles like this equating to anywhere near enough to recommend a play.

Noppert/Clemens - I want to say we've seen this game recently, but if we did, it must have been on the Pro Tour where I can't immediately see data without going into a deep database dive. Danny is very strongly favoured in the markets, we can't even get 4/9 which I think if he didn't bink the UK Open would be ridiculous, and as such I think Clemens is slightly undervalued here. Gabriel should probably take this around 35% of the time, we can get better than 2/1, but it is not better enough to put it down as a play to make. Definitely do not put the Freeze in any sort of acca.

Cullen/Heta - This one should be good, Cullen's been solid all year while Damon has been putting up top five numbers, he's been that good. Market can't split them, that is extremely silly as Heta is a clear three points better on scoring all year and rates to win this game more than two times out of three. 0.25u Heta evs with the title sponsors.

Cross/Gurney - Rob's been continually underrated forever, while Gurney is probably playing a touch better than his results are showing, as such this game might be a bit of a surprise hit, Rob should take this and I feel he is a bit underrated, I'm thinking around a 70% win chance, 4/7 is right on the margin of taking the shot, there is one random bookie that I've never heard of who's chucking out 8/13, if you can get someone reputable to take that price then go with it, I would probably go with 4/7 anyway but for Daryl having course and distance in this event.

Wade/Lukeman - We've got a redo from the Matchplay, where James really had no problems handling Lukeman on debut, but I'm kind of thinking things might be slightly different in this one here. That format has favoured James, but Martin seems like just as much of an opportunist as Wade is, and with the big TV major duck broken, he might be a bit more comfortable here. Lukeman's legs are right up there with Wade's, and he actually projects to win this nearly half the time, but there is an enormous consistency issue with Martin, which I think is enough to turn me off the bet, if that wasn't there I'd jump on 7/4, but I think I can talk my way out of this one.

Price/Schindler - Now this one I'm sure we've seen many times this season. Price is still clearly a top five player, while Martin has maybe cooled a little bit over the last two or three months, but in what is another Matchplay redo, he has shown the ability to hand with Gerwyn over an extended format in his 10-8 reverse at Blackpool. We won't see as many legs here naturally, and he's a live dog, but only at around the prices we're being offered. I'd say a touch over 30% for the German, he is a best price of 5/2.

Smith/Aspinall - Might be the best game saved until last. Smith's not been bad at all this year, top ten level of scoring, despite not really getting massive plaudits outside of his sick Pro Tour run in May, while Nathan's also been getting the cake at that level and has been in the ascendency compared to early year results. Year long I'm seeing Michael at a touch over 60% to take this result, 8/11 as a result is getting close to tempting, but with Aspinall maybe being a bit tighter if we were to take shorter sample sizes, I can pass on this one.

So just the one bet here, I'm sure you can understand me being cautious about punting on anything that isn't standard SIDO formats, but I've given enough for you to go off if you want to be a bit more aggressive than me.

Grand Prix Monday thoughts

Let's get into the Monday games. I can't see any doubling data which I want to be overly reliant on, so I'm just going to treat the games as roughly a best of 11 to 15 straight leg play event.

Rydz/Ratajski - Big chance for both here, but Ratajski appears to be moderately favoured with a bit above a 55% shot to take the match. He's 4/6, which isn't tempting, and even a vigless line at that point would not give enough edge to contemplate going on Callan either.

Dolan/Bunting - Another close game in the markets and an important one for both as they look to solidify their ranking positions, seems a similar game in terms of projections, Stephen coming in at around the 55% point. He is 4/5 which pretty much spot on, so we can't go with anything on this one.

Dobey/Humphries - Luke comes in as the shortest player so far, the market thinking he wins about two out of three games. That doesn't seem unfair on Chris' abilities, Luke's playing that much better that he ought to grab this around 70% of the time. As such, another spot on line.

van den Bergh/Chisnall - Key game for both, and both should be in some sort of confident form. The market can barely split them, giving Dimitri only the slightest of slight edges. I similarly can't separate them, it would take up to a world quarter final length of game before van den Bergh gets a 51% edge in my projections.

Clayton/van Duijvenbode - Highlight tie of the round for many, myself included, and maybe the one which is the closest to a bet so far. I've got Dirk as only a slight dog, 48% or so, as such 13/10 isn't too bad a punt, that equates to a 5% edge. Clayton seemingly having a slightly better doubling percentage, and seemingly always being a little bit underrated in the stats I have, is enough for me to say to not bet.

Wright/Huybrechts - Peter's the shortest price of the day, and it seems fair enough. Kim's been playing OK, but Peter's that much better - I'd say somewhere in the 75% to 80% favourite range. Most lines say 2/7 or 3/10, so yeah, we're struggling to find any value.

van Gerwen/Anderson - This would have been a tasty one on paper a few years ago, now maybe not so much, Gary needs ranking money badly and has got the worst possible draw. Anderson's stats aren't actually that far apart from MvG's, and the projections I have put them really close, normally 2/1 would be a snap call, but I can't realistically recommend a play given Anderson's enormous lack of ranking play (he only has about 40% of the legs played this season compared to van Gerwen), especially in more recent times. I can't even look at unranked play as some kind of saviour given how massively outclassed he was in the Premier League and mediocre scoring, one match vs Wright excepted, in other unranked events.

de Sousa/Lewis - We return to another tight game. Adie's improved of late and de Sousa has had a bit of a rough 2022, although more recent months appear a bit better. Lewis looks to be a live enough dog at the 45% point, but the best we can get is Ladbrokes not quite hitting 6/4, so I think we can avoid this one.

As such, no bets, will get Tuesday up as soon as I can.