Humphries/Wright - This should be pretty decent. Luke's the #1 seed but comes in as a market dog. It's nearly enough to play, I'm calling it a flip, and 6/4 on Betfair seems like it should be a play, but Wright showed nothing that made me mildly hesitant in the last sixteen. I won't officially call the shot, but wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Luke in this one.
Rock/Cross - This one should also be fun. Both players are looking for a first Euro Tour, Cross being a surprise that he's still not got one, while Rock getting one on the Rock would write its own headlines. We can only get evens on Josh, which is either the market finally adjusting, or they're undervaluing Cross a bit. I wouldn't hate the Josh play, but I've only got him at 54%, which is less of an edge than what I turned down on Humphries.
van Gerwen/Aspinall - A major final rematch, van Gerwen finished the match against de Sousa well after an indifferent first few legs, while Nathan needed to come from a 5-2 deficit for yet another comeback. You know, the sort of thing he nearly did to van Gerwen last week. Market is thinking a bit more than 60/40 on Michael, I think it should be slightly wider and see it as a 2-1 edge, counterpoint would be that Aspinall is doing "name on the trophy" sort of stuff... not the edge I need, so an easy ignore.
Clemens/Heta - Gabriel's not dropped much of anything so far, while Heta also only dropped one leg in a couple of quick games to finish the session. Looks like this should be comfortable for Damon, looking like the largest favourite of the round at 70/30 in my projections. I can only see the one line so far and that puts Heta at 2/5, so we'll have no bets.
Won't be able to find any time before the semis, but should have time to roundup today's stuff later.
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