Sunday 16 October 2022

Gib quarters

Another solid enough day, Rock completing the comeback, DvD blowing a huge lead including some inexplicable shot choices (throwing for the match at 5-3, after six perfect he then crazily doesn't go for the bull after missing dart 7, which would have left him something in the high 70 range and an almost guaranteed dart at double, as was he left 84, only got a shot at the bull, missed the 25 and didn't get lucky, then misses two match darts), before Heta rolls Cullen as we would expect. Through to the quarters, I'll have a quick look now, Ratajski has clinched the #32 seed, also Scott Williams has secured all the Challenge Tour win benefits, but we're in a moderately tight tussle for 2nd/3rd right now.

Humphries/Wright - This should be pretty decent. Luke's the #1 seed but comes in as a market dog. It's nearly enough to play, I'm calling it a flip, and 6/4 on Betfair seems like it should be a play, but Wright showed nothing that made me mildly hesitant in the last sixteen. I won't officially call the shot, but wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Luke in this one.

Rock/Cross - This one should also be fun. Both players are looking for a first Euro Tour, Cross being a surprise that he's still not got one, while Rock getting one on the Rock would write its own headlines. We can only get evens on Josh, which is either the market finally adjusting, or they're undervaluing Cross a bit. I wouldn't hate the Josh play, but I've only got him at 54%, which is less of an edge than what I turned down on Humphries.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - A major final rematch, van Gerwen finished the match against de Sousa well after an indifferent first few legs, while Nathan needed to come from a 5-2 deficit for yet another comeback. You know, the sort of thing he nearly did to van Gerwen last week. Market is thinking a bit more than 60/40 on Michael, I think it should be slightly wider and see it as a 2-1 edge, counterpoint would be that Aspinall is doing "name on the trophy" sort of stuff... not the edge I need, so an easy ignore.

Clemens/Heta - Gabriel's not dropped much of anything so far, while Heta also only dropped one leg in a couple of quick games to finish the session. Looks like this should be comfortable for Damon, looking like the largest favourite of the round at 70/30 in my projections. I can only see the one line so far and that puts Heta at 2/5, so we'll have no bets.

Won't be able to find any time before the semis, but should have time to roundup today's stuff later.

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