Wednesday 5 October 2022

GP round 2

Unfortunate result for Heta there puts us down early in the event. Maybe I'm missing something with Cullen? There's absolutely zero in the metrics that suggests anything that he is just a top 20 level guy. I don't know, perhaps he's someone like Clayton who's performed in non-ranked events and just performs a bit better on TV than he does do on the tour. Who knows. Still, if he can get past Price in round two there's no seeds left in that half now, so it becomes wide open. Will crack through both days of round two, I don't expect too many bets, if any, but let's see:

Lewis/Dobey - Couple of players with straight sets wins, Adie in two deciding legs while Dobey was emphatic in the second set to run away with things. Bookies are struggling to separate the two putting Lewis as a small favourite, 94 average is pretty nice in double in format, but is it sustainable? Maybe. Metrics I have can barely separate the two, overall scoring has them 26th and 27th for the year with a modest minimum leg requirement split by only a tenth of a point, Lewis scoring a bit better in winning legs at the expense of consistency giving him around a 55/45 edge. As a small betting favourite, we can't look at this one.

Wright/Ratajski - Rematch from the Matchplay, if we get half as good a game as then we'll have had a treat, Wright was given a good test by Kim while Ratajski handled Rydz in straight sets. This feels like a Wright two times out of three game. Does that give any value on Ratajski? He's 5/2, so I'm thinking he's got a little bit more of a chance than the prevailing market, but it's not enough to consider a punt.

van Gerwen/Bunting - Michael wasn't great against Anderson but didn't need to be, maybe if Gary could have nicked the second set in a decider rather than losing the match it'd have become interesting but he didn't, Bunting didn't need a third set against Dolan with one of the lower winning averages of round one. This is naturally going to be a tough ask, I'm thinking MvG has a little bit of a better chance than Wright, but it's not quite up to 70%. Bunting is similarly underrated by about the same amount, being a tick higher than Ratajski at 11/4. So same scenario really - small edge but not enough to recommend a play.

Clayton/van den Bergh - Final game of Wednesday, Jonny needed to come behind against Dirk whose game fell apart somewhat after winning the first set, while Dimitri went to a deciding leg against Chisnall and just got over the line. Clayton only has a small market edge, they're thinking 55/45, this looks about right. Maybe the Welshman will perform a little bit better, I'd be setting the line a little bit shorter seeing smack in between 55% and 60% winning chances, but again, it's another one where there's not enough edge to consider a play.

Lukeman/Smith - Onto Thursday and we have a great chance for these two, Martin was the second decider winner of the first round surviving a match dart against Wade before getting home, while Ross was down 3-0 in the first set but got back to win the game, being thankful that Gilding took nine darts to get away on throw in the decider in set two. Feels a bit like the last one, with Ross closer to 55% than 60%, and maybe Ross having gone deeper in big events than Martin has will play a factor as this is a bit of uncharted territory outside of that UK Open run a while back. 13/10 Lukeman seems fair enough, no bet.

Gurney/Razma - Both players needed three sets to move on, and both won the deciding set in straight legs, Razma against Ryan Searle and Gurney against Rob Cross. Neither had great averages, I'm guessing Madars had a bit of a nightmare double leg or two, but it's the win that counts. Daryl looks to have a solid 2-1 advantage as he looks to make the quarter finals in an event he has won before, we can get 8/15 which seems fair enough.

Price/Cullen - This becomes wide open for the whole half if Joe can get this upset win, Joe as mentioned won an odd game with Heta where they both won six legs with the exact same average, Price dropped just the one leg against Schindler in a game that just looking at averages didn't seem spectacular. Seems like Price should take this about 70-75% of the time, so do we want to look at 8/15? It's probably one of the closer shots we've had, but maybe as mentioned in the prelude we are underrating Cullen for some as yet undiagnosed reason. Think we can pass this one easily enough.

Aspinall/Noppert - Final game and we have two UK Open winners clashing, Nathan took out Michael Smith with a last set sweep, while Noppie didn't need a third set to eliminate Gabriel Clemens. Think the more recent major winner has a bit of an advantage in this one, getting close to 60% but not quite all the way there. He is 4/5 which implies 55%, not really quite enough to go with a punt.

So, no bets, but there's a few there where if you're a bit more risk averse in terms of pushing small edges, you can get some action.

No comments:

Post a Comment