Monday 3 October 2022

Grand Prix Tuesday thoughts

Caught a little bit of tonight's action after the Leicester/Forest game, obviously we had no punts to power ahead with and thankfully common sense pulled us back from punting on Anderson, not a massive deal of surprise other than Dobey just taking Humphries apart in the second set, was basically unplayable with some huge outshots but still needed to do work to get to said outshots at that stage in the leg in the first place, Dirk's capitulation against Clayton was pretty disappointing, but it is what it is. Eight games tomorrow, still round one and still a really short cut-throat format, what do we have?

Razma/Searle - Honestly don't know what we're going to get here. Searle claims to like the DIDO format, Razma's talking up his double 19 antics which is not unreasonable given his love of that area of the board, I'm favouring Searle fairly heavily in this one but he is priced at shorter than 1/2, this does seem really close to a play on the favourite but there's just enough uncertainty in my mind that I don't want to take the shot. Feels like a game where if he can get the win, we can look again in round two.

Smith/Gilding - Smith's been quiet all year but has been putting up decent enough numbers which has translated into some alright results in the last month to six weeks, which is why he is here in the first place, and that is enough to put him into contention against Gilding, who has been putting up slightly better numbers all year, and unfortunately the markets agree. 5/6 on Gilding may be giving Smith slightly too much credit in a match which will be a fair bit of a clash of styles which you feel would favour Andrew, but I can't see any sort of intangibles like this equating to anywhere near enough to recommend a play.

Noppert/Clemens - I want to say we've seen this game recently, but if we did, it must have been on the Pro Tour where I can't immediately see data without going into a deep database dive. Danny is very strongly favoured in the markets, we can't even get 4/9 which I think if he didn't bink the UK Open would be ridiculous, and as such I think Clemens is slightly undervalued here. Gabriel should probably take this around 35% of the time, we can get better than 2/1, but it is not better enough to put it down as a play to make. Definitely do not put the Freeze in any sort of acca.

Cullen/Heta - This one should be good, Cullen's been solid all year while Damon has been putting up top five numbers, he's been that good. Market can't split them, that is extremely silly as Heta is a clear three points better on scoring all year and rates to win this game more than two times out of three. 0.25u Heta evs with the title sponsors.

Cross/Gurney - Rob's been continually underrated forever, while Gurney is probably playing a touch better than his results are showing, as such this game might be a bit of a surprise hit, Rob should take this and I feel he is a bit underrated, I'm thinking around a 70% win chance, 4/7 is right on the margin of taking the shot, there is one random bookie that I've never heard of who's chucking out 8/13, if you can get someone reputable to take that price then go with it, I would probably go with 4/7 anyway but for Daryl having course and distance in this event.

Wade/Lukeman - We've got a redo from the Matchplay, where James really had no problems handling Lukeman on debut, but I'm kind of thinking things might be slightly different in this one here. That format has favoured James, but Martin seems like just as much of an opportunist as Wade is, and with the big TV major duck broken, he might be a bit more comfortable here. Lukeman's legs are right up there with Wade's, and he actually projects to win this nearly half the time, but there is an enormous consistency issue with Martin, which I think is enough to turn me off the bet, if that wasn't there I'd jump on 7/4, but I think I can talk my way out of this one.

Price/Schindler - Now this one I'm sure we've seen many times this season. Price is still clearly a top five player, while Martin has maybe cooled a little bit over the last two or three months, but in what is another Matchplay redo, he has shown the ability to hand with Gerwyn over an extended format in his 10-8 reverse at Blackpool. We won't see as many legs here naturally, and he's a live dog, but only at around the prices we're being offered. I'd say a touch over 30% for the German, he is a best price of 5/2.

Smith/Aspinall - Might be the best game saved until last. Smith's not been bad at all this year, top ten level of scoring, despite not really getting massive plaudits outside of his sick Pro Tour run in May, while Nathan's also been getting the cake at that level and has been in the ascendency compared to early year results. Year long I'm seeing Michael at a touch over 60% to take this result, 8/11 as a result is getting close to tempting, but with Aspinall maybe being a bit tighter if we were to take shorter sample sizes, I can pass on this one.

So just the one bet here, I'm sure you can understand me being cautious about punting on anything that isn't standard SIDO formats, but I've given enough for you to go off if you want to be a bit more aggressive than me.

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