Friday 28 October 2022

Euro Championship round 2

Christ, the Rock hype is getting a little bit silly now. 28/1 pre Aspinall, 22/1 this morning, 18/1 now, at some point it's actually going to hit what should be fair market value. Just going to blast through round two as it's quite late now:

Wade/van Duijvenbode - Almost tempted with Dirk here. First to ten he's up nearer to 75% than 70%. 8/15 is a tempting proposition, but Wade's already been a bit of a luckbox and does like this sort of format generally, so I'll pass a moderate edge and probably regret it in the morning.

Humphries/Searle - Market seems favoured a bit too much towards Humphries. Approaching 1/2 does not seem quite right, both played well in round one, thinking Ryan's got better than 40% chances in this one, but not by a great deal. 13/8 is worth considering.

Smith/Rock - We're actually not going to bet on Josh here, despite him clearly having a little bit of TV nerves, but shrugging them off. We can only get 10/11, and we're only seeing 57%. The market's not quite caught up yet, but it has done enough that it's not a play. This could easily be the game of the year.

van der Voort/Noppert - Interesting Dutch derby this one, and one that Danny should be easily favoured in. We're talking nearer to 80% than 75%. Sadly the bookies have worked it out as well and price him at 1/3. Meh.

Dobey/de Sousa - Jose looked good against Schindler, Chris also looked good against van Gerwen (albeit getting a bit lucky). Seems like de Sousa should have a moderate edge in this tie, pretty much smack in between 55% and 60%. He's 4/6, so we can't recommend a play.

Wright/Rodriguez - Peter surely can't believe his luck to have two of the other top three in the rankings crash out, avoiding what would have been a tie of the round against Gerwyn here. Still, Rowby got through, not brilliant but got the job done. Looks a pure 80/20 in favour of Snakebite. Maybe a fraction undervalued, definitely no value.

Smith/van den Bergh - Both players averaged about 101 and a half, good showings all round. Ross is definitely live here, would say a spot over 40%. 11/8 is disappointingly close to where I see the line.

Chisnall/Clayton - Dave got the only whitewash of the opening round over Bunting, a little bit surprised but Dave is in good form of late, Clayton just about had enough to defeat Clemens, and enters as a small favourite. That looks more or less right to me, maybe the line should be a little bit tighter than it is (I would have said 11/10 Chizzy vig free and 6/5 is available), but not much.

So no bets. Dirk's clearly the closest, Searle and Rock are tempters, but there's nothing whatsoever in the evening session.

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