GOLD

Holy fucking shit Andrew Gilding is a major champion, not a sentence I thought I'd be saying any time soon, if ever, but without ever playing spectacularly (certainly not with the heights he had during his previous semi final run in any case) he just hung in there when needed and took his chances, which is all he really needed to do. Huge result, also a pretty massive performance from Adam Gawlas to make the semi final which should see him securely inside the top 64 at the end of the year. Also great runs from Schindler, who continues to push up towards the top 20, and Richie Burnett as well, while Richie will still need to do some work to retain his card beyond 2023, he is at least in a decent position to do so, will still probably need to make the worlds, but there's a chance. A few disappointing early exits for many players in and around the 10-25 FRH ranking brackets, although as we did see there were a lot of high profile draws in round four, so this is the sort of thing that can always happen.

New FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Peter Wright

4 Gerwyn Price

5 Luke Humphries

6 Nathan Aspinall

7 Rob Cross

8 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)

9 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)

10 Jonny Clayton

11 Dirk van Duijvenbode

12 Joe Cullen

13 Dave Chisnall

14 Ross Smith

15 Ryan Searle

16 Damon Heta

17 Gabriel Clemens

18 Andrew Gilding (NEW)

19 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)

20 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)

Wade drops off the top 20. Dimi's semi sees the only other top 20 move, Schindler's quarter sees him up to #24, Gawlas is up inside the top 45 now, while Burnett is up to #72.

It's a busy couple of weeks coming up - there's Players Championships both of the next two weekends, the second bunch being a funky double header in Germany right after they have four Challenge Tours (I suppose that kind of makes sense if you think about it), this weekend we've also got more SDC action, the Asian Tour returns for the first time since forever, while next weekend also sees the Isle of Man event, which seems downgraded from previous years, but oh well.

As an aside, would it surprise you if I told you that Brendan Dolan and Adrian Lewis are outside of Matchplay qualification spots right now? Or that de Sousa and Ratajski are provisionally out of the Grand Prix (as is, for that matter, Gilding)?

UK Open quarters - any value?

A bit late in the day, but Dart Connect failed to get two of the last sixteen games from board two onto their system, so needed to use the much slower version of scraping from sportradar (which, unlike in round one, was actually working, avoiding the even slower version of finding the games on Youtube and scraping from there). Looks like all the big guns bar MvG are out, and as he's got a potentially tricky opponent in the quarters, perhaps it's not a formality that he wins it? We'll see. Ando was a bit disappointing in the match with Dimi, passing up many chances to get ahead earlier, then after getting back to 8-8 with the match in his hand, chokes the seventeenth leg. Oh well. Still up over a unit for the event, anything we like in the quarters?

Gilding/Schindler - Great opportunity for both here, in a match I'm finding impossible to call for either - Schindler has the tiniest edge possible, if they were to play a world final, I wouldn't even favour him by a third of a percent. As such, the tiniest of value is on Gilding (who has been this deep before, let's not forget), but at a generally best price of 11/10 it's not the edge to chase.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Nathan's come through some tough opponents, but maybe a little bit of a breather of a match against Cullen will come in handy to keep him refreshed against MvG - let's not forget Aspinall at the Slam being completely spent in the final. van Gerwen probably had his toughest test on the Friday, with both the remaining games being relatively comfortable - one against an opponent I thought he'd steamroller but didn't, then one where I thought he'd be given a stern test, but wasn't (maybe Humphries ran out of steam given his draws). Aspinall's live but I'm not giving him a great deal better than a one in four chance. He's 10/3, again, it's not the sort of edge I'd want to jump over.

Burnett/van den Bergh - Can the Richie fairytale continue? He's already beaten one player better than Dimitri, so why not? This is actually projecting reasonably close, although I say that in terms of closer than you might think - still seeing Dimi at about a 70/30 line. That probably points towards taking Richie, but I do wonder how many times he can get away with things as he's done, what with two 10-9 wins already and overcoming a big average differential against Wright. He's clearly going to need to be opportunistic again, it can happen, but I've just got the sense that taking around 4/1 isn't quite the right play.

Cross/Gawlas - Rob's just been quietly going about his business, eliminating Beaton and the Dutch pair of RvB and JdZ, while Adam has come through several tight games before putting together his best performance probably of his career to get this far in a rout of Willie O'Connor. Rob should be far too strong and claim this a little over three quarters of the time, which with a line of 10/3 on Gawlas, is reflected in the market.

So no bets - with the only one we saw in the last sixteen being on someone who's out, this isn't unexpected. As stated, I don't hate it if you want to take a flier on Richie, I'm just not going to officially recommend it, I might have a couple of quid on the exchange for shits and giggles. Will probably NOT be back in time for the semis, but I do not predict we will see anything of value if the market's views are coinciding with ours this accurately already.

Round 6 - any bets?

One up one down today, as the up was at even money there's no change in the profit and loss account, where there is change is in the makeup of the tournament, with Price and Noppert dropping out, annoyingly two of the players I was really close to adding on with backs went on to win (Dolan, Ando), maybe I should trust the numbers a bit more. Oh well, onto the last sixteen we go:

Dolan/Gilding - This would I think be a pretty fun watch, despite both players being somewhat deliberate, there's so many similarities in their games. Projections are saying Gilding by a little bit more than 60/40, don't think either player has been in brilliant recent form but Gilding's definitely been playing the better stuff in this tournament. Feels like it's close to a play on Andrew, 4/5 isn't a bad price but ideally I'd want ever so slightly more. That's the way I'd go if you put a gun to my head.

Anderson/van den Bergh - Ando made one Belgian look extremely ordinary in the last round, and now gets another who did enough to beat King without ever really looking brilliant. This seems like a 2-1 kind of game in favour of Ando. The line is nowhere near that with Gary being the underdog. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice and pass up the sort of value I did earlier, 0.25u Anderson 6/5.

de Zwaan/Cross - Jeffrey looks to be back to his best more and more with every passing game after dumping out Price with the highest average of the round, while Cross keeps doing Cross things, getting a professional job done on Beaton with a ton plus average of his own. Projections are hugely in favour of Rob, I'm going to naturally temper them slightly given just how well Jeffrey played this afternoon (despite the Friday being, at best, simply alright statistically), and it's enough for me not to want to take Cross at 2/5, which with the level of edge I perceive him having ignoring this afternoon would be close to a moderate play. Certainly don't want to be getting on the underdog hype train.

Clayton/Schindler - Jonny didn't need to do anything spectacular to get a big win over de Sousa, while Martin looked very competent in dumping out previous winner Adrian Lewis. Clayton's a favourite, but I don't see Martin as outclassed, he's certainly a live dog with a projection coming in at just over 40%, maybe tone that down a tad with Clayton's form to start the year. With Schindler having prices approaching 2/1, it's certainly worth considering taking the German here, but I'd want longer than 2's to actually recommend a play. Clayton certainly not "acca safe".

van Gerwen/Humphries - Michael was in a spot of bother in terms of the scoreline against Kleermaker, but kleered up (sigh) after the break, while Luke was forced the distance yet again but got home against Smith. This looks 60/40 in projections but I wonder how much back to back really long and tough games against quality opponents will have taken out of Luke. We can't even get 2/1 so this match just doesn't appeal to me from a betting perspective.

Wright/Burnett - Richie got home in a decider, while Peter wasn't brilliant statistically but was doing enough to get home in a fairly close game against Rydz. Richie's run has been a nice one, but it surely ends here, a best price of 5/1 looks spot on from where I'm looking and Snakebite will likely move on to the quarters.

O'Connor/Gawlas - Fantastic opportunity for both here (although Willie's obviously been this far before), O'Connor dumped out the reigning champion in a decider breaking a three figure average, while Adam was in a bit of a duel with Kevin Doets but came out on the right side of it. Willie should be favoured here, if I was setting a no vig line I'd go 8/13 - the market has it a little bit tighter, but not so close where we'd want to consider going against Gawlas.

Aspinall/Cullen - Final game, and it's another game for Nathan against a Premier League snub after he took out van Duijvenbode, this time it's against Cullen who ended the run of Karel Sedlacek. This one appears very tight on paper, I would maybe give Cullen the slightest of edges and I feel as if he may be slightly fresher, having had two easier games to this point as well as no Premier League the day before as well. Nathan is a marginal favourite, but it's still close enough that 11/10 isn't the sort of line I want to be piling on to here.

That's it, back tomorrow morning in all probability for quarter final thoughts.

Round 5 bets

Solid evening session, picked up another half a unit, pity that Littler and de Decker couldn't convert what were pretty good chances to win their games, but at the same time Dolan had no business winning his game against van der Voort, so we won't be too greedy and disappointed that it wasn't a bigger day. Getting towards the business end of things now, sixteen round five ties to look at, let's go:

Gawlas/Doets - Can't be overstated how big a game this is for both, plenty of reasonable draws to get in the next round which would put them in a major quarter final. Actually seeing these fairly close with Kevin having about a 5-6% edge, the market's actually shading things towards Gawlas, it's not quite enough to bet it (can only see Hills at 6/5), a bit longer and I'd go with it.

Burnett/Evetts - Same here, this would really help both hugely in their race to save tour cards, I'm seeing it about 60/40 in favour of Richie, that's enough for me, 0.25u Burnett evs

O'Connor/Noppert - Willie got a really easy run while Danny was given a good test by Williams who had a decent chance late on to force it all the way, Danny should be comfortable here, 70/30 as I see it, he's just shorter than 2/1 on which looks just fine.

Price/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was forced all the way by Jansen, while Gerwyn wasn't really tested but still looked in great form, Price looks way too good here, 1/6 might actually be the tiniest of values but with JdZ looking a little bit resurgent I'm happy to call it correct.

Lewis/Schindler - Adie got a comfortable win against Campbell, Schindler was pushed a bit more by Whitlock but never really looked in any danger. Coinflip for me, bookies can't split them either, next.

Huybrechts/Anderson - Kim needed to get a comeback to see off de Decker, while Ando was always a little bit too good for Wade who'll plummet in the official rankings now. The data model is all over Anderson, even just shorter than 1/2 looks like it might easily be a good play, if he plays like he did last night it will be, but I'll factor in some percent for Kim being in the winners circle recently and probably playing better than historical stats and just about say no to a Gary bet, which might look real silly in a few hours.

Woodhouse/Gilding - Good run for Luke having eliminated Josh Rock and then looking really good in a one-sided rout of Jelle Klaasen, while Andrew's apparently reached this stage for the first time since his semi run. Ooh. Numbers are saying 60/40 Gilding, he's 4/5, with those numbers taking into account that Gilding was pretty good this time last year and maybe not so much of late, and also factoring in Luke looking extremely good yesterday, I'm happy to call this a clear no bet.

Smith/Humphries - Michael was too good for Ian White, while Luke needed every leg to defeat Damon Heta and keep hopes of a first major alive, which he's going to have to do the hard way it seems, if it is this weekend. The numbers for these seem really, really close, Michael's better but only fractionally, we're getting close to the price where I'd want to bet on Luke, but I'd need slightly longer than 6/4 and it's not there, at least not on the exchanges.

Dobey/Dolan - Brendan as mentioned needed a big comeback to survive, while Dobey came through a tough opponent in Ryan Searle with a solid average. Not quite 60/40, but Chris is favoured for me here, Dolan's getting up close to 5/2 which seems marginal in terms of a play, I won't but I wouldn't be lumping on the PL star here. Not even close.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk was given a tough test by Ratajski as expected, while Nathan was given an even tougher test by Soutar, which maybe wasn't quite so expected but it's what happened, maybe a chance for Dirk to make a statement "why is he in the Premier League" game? 65/35 in favour of Dirk for me, why the market is so close, I don't know, 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11

Cullen/Sedlacek - Joe was too good for Slevin as we thought but Dylan hung around for some time, while Karel blitzed Suljovic although the numbers seemed fairly even. Looks like Joe is clearly favoured, just shy of 70/30 but better than 2-1, market has it a bit further but not with the edge to consider playing Sedlacek as an underdog flyer, even with him looking superb in the earlier rounds.

Kleermaker/van Gerwen - Michael had to navigate a really tough draw in Chisnall but did, Kleermaker averaged less than Killington but still won 10-6, ok then. This is unbelievably lopsided, 1/10 actually isn't a losing play, that's how favoured I'm projecting MvG to be.

Clayton/de Sousa - Jonny got a bastard of a draw in Ross Smith and needed every leg to get over the line, while Jose got a more comfortable opponent in Labanauskas, who kept it surprisingly close but JdS moves on regardless. Clayton's better, but not by as much as you might think, maybe about 15% better. Call it a touch more given his red hot start to the season if you want. At 2/1, de Sousa is of minor interest but backing against Clayton right now is a bit dangerous, would have liked to have seen a bit more in round four to consider it. Jonny doesn't seem a good acca bet though.

King/van den Bergh - Mervyn got through an unremarkable game with Keane Barry, while Dimitri took a match of losing world semi finalists a little bit more comfortably than many thought. Dimitri should be too strong here, getting up close to 65% chances, some of the prices for King are getting close to where I'd consider a small flyer, but it's not quite enough for me.

Beaton/Cross - Steve continues a great vein of form and an 80 average from Rowby never threatened, while Rob got the deciding leg win over Barney. I'd expect Rob to win this 80% of the time just on pure numbers over the year and discounting form, so maybe with Cross being undervalued generally and Steve being a fan favourite who is playing well, there's have been a play. But Rob's shorter than 1/3 at best, so there isn't.

Wright/Rydz - Peter needed every leg to scrape through a deceptively tough draw against Bunting, while Callan looked probably the best he has done for a while in eliminating a close opponent in the rankings in Daryl Gurney. Wright should have too much here, I'd price it as 2/5, it's actually slightly tighter in the markets which does surprise me a touch (although Peter's awful PL form might be a factor in that), but there is not the sort of value to seriously think about taking Wright here.

That's your lot, expect me back after full times or there abouts with last sixteen thoughts.

Round 4 bets

OK, here we go:

Labanauskas - de Sousa - 0.5u de Sousa 4/9 (Ladbrokes)

Woodhouse - Klaasen 0.25u Woodhouse 4/5 (365)

Killington - Kleermaker 0.25u Killington 13/10 (365)

Suljovic - Sedlacek no bet

Gawlas - Littler 0.25u Littler 20/21 (Boyles)

Wade - Anderson 0.25u Anderson 10/11 (365)

Campbell - Lewis no bet

van Gerwen - Chisnall no bet

O'Connor - Wattimena no bet

Price - Banks 1u Price 1/14 (Hills)

Humphries - Heta no bet

Ratajski - van Duijvenbode no bet

van Barneveld - Cross no bet

de Zwaan - Jansen no bet

King - Barry no bet

Rafferty - Evetts no bet

Schindler - Whitlock no bet

Huybrechts - de Decker 0.1u de Decker 11/8 (365)

Slevin - Cullen 0.25u Cullen 2/5 (Ladbrokes)

Noppert - Williams no bet

Rydz - Gurney no bet

van den Bergh - Clemens no bet

Doets - Lukeman no bet

Burnett - Hempel no bet

Rodriguez - Beaton no bet

van der Voort - Dolan 0.25u Dolan evs (365)

Smith - White no bet

Bunting - Wright no bet

Soutar - Aspinall no bet

Searle - Dobey no bet

Evans - Gilding no bet

Smith - Clayton no bet

UK Open round 4 draw thoughts

What a great day of darts it's been so far, not being able to find anything on van Veen against Owen aside, hopefully someone puts a recording of the stream up. And it's going to get better tonight, that is one hell of a draw and you could easily find a dozen games worthy of being put on the main stage, and there's not too many at all which look like complete duds. Let's put it this way - you've got Wade/Ando, Humphries/Heta, Ratajski/DvD, Barney/Cross, Noppert/Williams, DvdB/Clemens, Searle/Dobey and Smith/Clayton, and NONE of them are likely to be on the main stage assuming they pick the big four, all of which have got really interesting matchups in their own rights (MvG/Chizzy, Smith/White, Price/Banks and Wright/Bunting). Let's put up some percentages while we wait for the bookies to populate lines - was a pretty solid day, 4.35 units bet and 0.8 units profit for a steady high teens return in ROI. Some of these might have really limited sample sizes (looking mainly at Banks and Littler here, but also some newer card holders like Slevin although most have been filtered out), so some of these might be a bit unreliable, but when I actually start to make the best I'll take all that into account.

Labanauskas - de Sousa 11/89

Woodhouse - Klaasen 70/30

Killington - Kleermaker 61/39

Suljovic - Sedlacek 51/49

Gawlas - Littler 26/74

Wade - Anderson 24/76

Campbell - Lewis 41/59

van Gerwen - Chisnall 61/39

O'Connor - Wattimena 54/46

Price - Banks 99/1

Humphries - Heta 48/52

Ratajski - van Duijvenbode 33/67

van Barneveld - Cross 43/57

de Zwaan - Jansen 66/34

King - Barry 59/41

Rafferty - Evetts 55/45

Schindler - Whitlock 59/41

Huybrechts - de Decker 28/72

Slevin - Cullen 18/82

Noppert - Williams 58/42

Rydz - Gurney 58/42

van den Bergh - Clemens 63/37

Doets - Lukeman 41/59

Burnett - Hempel 59/41

Rodriguez - Beaton 52/48

van der Voort - Dolan 32/68

Smith - White 74/26

Bunting - Wright 36/64

Soutar - Aspinall 29/71

Searle - Dobey 58/42

Evans - Gilding 27/73

Smith - Clayton 41/59

Back shortly with actual plays.

UK Open Friday live post

As previous, I'll edit this post in running as and when I've got stuff to say. Working on known round two games now.

Known round two games:

Jansen/Brooks - Rates as a real coin toss, maybe Brooks slightly favoured. Jansen's slightly odds against so market tends to agree.

van Dongen/Doets - Kevin's the better player here, should win this two times out of three. Think there's enough value to go small on this one, 0.1u Doets 4/6, a bit better is available on the exchanges and some random bookies so go with that if you like.

Perales/Mansell - Seems kind of the same as the above. Mickey's favoured 65/35 in my eyes. There's a couple of random bookies that are offering a bit better than 4/6, would probably fire at 8/11 but that sort of price isn't generally available.

Peters/Wilson - Another 2-1 sort of game with James being favoured. Market is spot on.

Veenstra/Clark - Stats actually have Jamie surprisingly close in this one, having as much as a 45% chance on this one. This doesn't feel intuitively right and Richard's sample size is a little small, so I'm going to ignore the numbers despite better than 2/1 being available.

Burness/Rafferty - Yet more 2-1 games, Nathan's favoured. He's 4/7 compared to 7/4 for Kevin, so happy enough to ignore this one.

Szaganski/Kciuk - Back to back local derbies from countries which don't seem an obvious call for one, feels like Kciuk has been the consistently better player but he only projects at 55/45, market seems to have picked up on this one with a paltry 13/10 being the best you can get on Radek which clearly isn't worth it.

Scutt/Hendriks - Scutt is clearly better here, this is 3-1 territory. Enough to go small here - 0.1u Scutt 1/2, slightly better is available on rando sites and exchanges, think if you were to get better than 4/7 you can upgrade unit size.

Known round three games:

Lewis/Murnan - Adie should have this easily enough, Joe's not drawing dead but this is 70/30 territory. Murnan's right in the middle of 2/1 and 3/1 so no bet here.

Krcmar/Wattimena - Tough one to read, Jermaine's improving while Boris has often struggled in big events compared to the floor, yet the numbers say 55/45 Krcmar. Slightly odds against seems worth the stab to me, 0.1u Krcmar 11/10, that Jermaine lost to Springer last weekend gives me an indication that while he's playing better, conversion when it counts might still be a small factor.

Joyce/de Decker - Ryan's not been particularly underperforming, but de Decker is just getting continually better and rates as a 60/40 favourite to me. Coralbrokes give odds against, so while there is a wee bit of a consistency issue in Mike's game, it is being ironed out, 0.25u de Decker 11/10.

Kleermaker/Lennon - Important game for both, perhaps more for Steve. Lennon is playing the far better darts and should grab this two times in three. The market has it a little closer, which I can understand, but not to the sort of better than 4/6 line where I'd start with a small stab like with Doets in the previous round.

Rock/Woodhouse - Shame this one's come up early, Luke's clearly capable of getting to something like the last 32 or possibly further with a competent draw, and Josh can't like this draw too much. Obviously Rock is favoured, 70/30 for me. Market has it ever so slightly more one sided but not enough value to bet Woody here.

Hempel/Hughes - Jamie's resurgent and while Florian's not playing bad darts, Hughes ought to take this one, yet another game that projects about 65/35. Market is only slightly better than 1/2 on Hughes in some places so no value to be had.

O'Connor/Petersen - Oddly Devon's actually projecting at only a 40/60 dog, but his winning legs aren't actually too far behind Willie's. The losing legs are further off, so consistency is a factor. 12/5 on Devon I suppose isn't an awful play, but I can't really go against Willie in this venue, can't see him gifting Petersen the chances he will likely need.

1101 - We're under way, was a bit worried when all the games warming up briefly disappeared off Dart Connect, but must just have been a standard tournament thing I guess.

1104 - Actually noticed we've got four bets in play immediately, and they've all taken the first leg, will take that for now.

1110 - Claydon casually averaging 110 and being 3-0 down is a thing.

1112 - Now he wins a leg and the average drops eight points. Such a silly statistic.

1116 - Robbie Knops the first two get one away from a win, Adam Warner joins him right after.

1127 - Two up and two down on the bets from the first round of boards 3-8, small profit booked. Daniel Lee flier didn't work and Neyens was very disappointing, but Knops and Webster got the job done. Jurjen looked very good. Looking at four now known round two games now.

1130 - Montgomery/Warner feels too close to call. On the basis of what we saw from Jurjen, his game with Ronny Huybrechts seems the same. Menzies should be far, far too strong for Moston, hard to quantify given limited data on Jim but anything better than 1/3 might be a play. Webster/Martinez seems a bit better than 60/40 in favour of the Spaniard. Checking for lines now.

1133 - Two bets immediately taken on 365, 0.25u Menzies 2/5 and 0.25u Martinez 11/8.

1134 - Other two games we know are priced alright at a first glance. Looks like van Veen got through his opener, just waiting to have the stats come through on Dart Connect.

1135 - Kuivenhoven bet looks in real trouble, down four zip and averaging under 80 against Slevin in three figures, ouch.

1137 - That said, also got Kenny and Usher in the running right now, Kenny's up 3-1 with a worse average, while Usher is 2-2 but averaging 10 points higher than the qualifier. Also seeing Hall, Nentjes and Gurney doing fine so far.

1139 - van Veen/Owen had better come through on Dart Connect, as sportradar have their first fuckup of the year, no data at all. Useless.

1145 - They're also not even trying for the Richardson/Tricole game. This is not good and I hope DC are at least watching the stream, rather than just going to copy from sportradar after the event.

1150 - Rupprecht forced a decider, not great. Looking at van Veen as 65/35 against Waites, Slevin only having a small edge versus Wilkinson, and Hall solid 70/30 over Banks, although that's only an estimation.

1152 - Another couple of round two bets, 0.1u Wilkinson 2/1 against Slevin, this is a bit of a flyer but price seems OK, also 0.25u van Veen 10/11 versus Waites. Would really have liked to see the stats, but oh well.

1157 - Thinking O'Shea should be a marginal favourite against Usher, 60/40 or something like that. Will check a line.

1200 - Mixed pricing on Usher/O'Shea. 365 has John at 11/10, which is tempting, while Ladbrokes has Usher at 11/8?

1202 - Going to take that 365 price small, 0.1u O'Shea 11/10.

1206 - Sportradar now at least working for the Wenig game, but still nothing for the first two matches. May be a case of needing to find someone having uploaded the stream and doing shit manually which in 2023 is unacceptable.

1214 - That's a strong showing from Gary Davey. Against someone like Mol next round, it's got to be worth a flyer assuming a reasonable price?

1218 - Someone from Dart Connect saying there's "technical issues". Yeah, right, other boards are working fine? Just going to check Zonneveld/Brown projections now.

1220 - Not being offered much of anything on Davey, only seeing 365 right now, but that's 13/8. Was hoping for better than 2/1. Zonneveld is nearly a play with 365 not being able to separate them, just waiting to see if another book will give us odds against which I'd go with at the current projections.

1221 - Also, Littler 6-0 on debut, nice, was expecting the win but that's impressive.

1222 - Yeah, doubt we're going to see better on Davey or Zonneveld. Laddies have Niels at around 4/6, which is lol.

1229 - Few games which are mostly guesses here based on sample size - Vandenbogaerde and Littler both 60/40 favourites, Killington a bit more at 65/35?

1233 - What a weird mix of games to just make notes on - de Zwaan hitting three legs of twelve or better, while Monk and Andersen couldn't find a fifteen between them in a game that went the distance!

1234 - Thoughts on their next matches - Monk should be a solid favourite versus Knops, 70/30 is an estimate. de Zwaan/Nentjes projects with Geert being a small favourite, but with Jeffrey looking on form I'm going to adjust that to a pure flip.

1237 - Tacking on another small bet, 0.1u Killington evs, that's on 365, other places have it more like 4/6 so locking this in. The Klose and JdZ matches look accurately priced, still looking at Littler and Monk's games.

1239 - Also going small with 0.1u Littler 5/4 on Ladbrokes, think he should be the favourite in this one.

1248 - Last few round one games just finishing up now, so starting to look ahead to round three ties as and when we get knowledge.

1252 - There are a few second round games which I've not looked at in detail, but nothing is jumping off the coupon as being worthy of investigation or a bet right now.

1259 - Fantastic showing from Veenstra, first man through to round three. Dan Read making a great comeback effort in the last first rounder going on.

1301 - Veenstra against Rowby in round three should be good. Thinking Richard should be a favourite in this one, but with Rowby's 2022, I don't know if he will be. One to monitor.

1307 - Wilson with the least convincing whitewash of all time. Youth shows out over experience with Rafferty beating Burness, upcoming last 96 tie with Meikle should be good, although one which I think Ryan ought to take 60/40.

1310 - Meikle right where I'd expect him to be in prices. Veenstra is a slight dog in the market but not long enough to get excited about.

1319 - Montgomery through after a tight one with Warner, now plays Whitlock where he should be a 3-1 dog. Also not sure why Kenny is going off at 11/10 against Heneghan? Sure, he averaged lower, but I don't think he's the lesser player?

1321 - Three bets in play right now with Martinez, O'Shea and van Veen just needing to hold at most three legs in any respective match for a win.

1322 - Actually, make that four, as Wilkinson's just under way against Slevin.

1323 - That seemed to immediately bok Martinez, as Webster breaks and is throwing in the decider.

1331 - Urgh, O'Shea got broken in the decider, that's a real kick in the teeth. Going to check if any more round three games can be bet.

1334 - Three of interest - van Veen against Williams ought to be spectacular, Jim a small favourite, Doets against Szaganski shouldn't be too bad, Kevin a bit more than 60% but not two in three, while Evans against Usher is projecting huge for Ricky but I'm not sure that's accurate given Graham's sample size.

1337 - Also had Mansell/Suljovic just confirmed, which I actually have as too close to call. 0.25u 4/5 Doets on 365 placed.

1341 - Couple more just added on 365 - 0.1u Mansell 2/1 against Suljovic, and 0.1u Evans 4/5 against Usher.

1344 - Two more bets just finalised, Wilkinson gave it a good shot against Slevin but couldn't quite get home, while Littler looked even better than in round one with a 6-2 win over Rusty, so another small incremental gain. Ever so slightly up so far.

1350 - Another few of games to look at - Barry is about a 70/30 favourite against Mol, would have expected more, but I guess not, is showing at 4/9, 2/5 etc which seems fine, then Littler/Edhouse, limited data on Luke but the bookies not being able to split them seems fine. Williams/Jansen being a pick'em also seems fine, only places that are edging towards either player are doing so towards Lewy which looks right to me.

1355 - Killington off to a good start for one of our bets, up 3-0, while Menzies gets us more in the back and now plays Ian White in a true 50/50 game next.

1404 - Menzies/White showing as a flip in the one book I'm seeing. Read/Lukeman could be interesting, Dan's not played badly and Lukeman might be overvalued. Scutt/Beaton also appears close, although Steve is playing excellent darts so might need a big price on Connor.

1406 - Killington is through and might be sneaky value, Madars I'm thinking is almost certainly going to be overrated once I see a line.

1407 - Klaasen safely through. Can't get better than 6/4 on Scutt so scratch that idea.

1410 - Looks like the one book I'm seeing lines on, we can get north of 2/1 on both Read and Killington. Kind of tempting at that price already, but going to wait and see if another book offers better.

1414 - Superb win for Sedlacek. Any questions about whether his 2022 form was temporary are gone with that one. Still waiting on an opponent.

1418 - Ultra rough game for Matt Campbell. He gets through to an intriguing game with Jeff Smith, but game must be upped dramatically in that one.

1421 - Two long shots added, 0.1u Killington 11/5 against Razma and 0.1u Read 11/5 against Lukeman. These should both be closer, George is 13/8 on Laddies in comparison, struggling to see anyone else pricing up the Lukeman game. Scott Williams against Jelle Klaasen seems about right to me.

1424 - Knops with a solid 6-0 win in the bank, may temper thoughts about lumping on Slevin as a result.

1428 - Just a handful of stragglers left - Burnett is done, Klose is playing, Brown and Gurney are just starting now, then that'll be the last of the round 3 ties done to look at.

1453 - No further round 3 bets, nothing of interest has appeared, so just keeping tabs on any notable wins from here on out.

1454 - That is unless Darius is rated far too closely to Zonneveld, who's just completed our round 3 lineup.

UK Open round 1 tips and bets

Going to go through all of these. Rounds 2/3 I will work out later this evening - I will probably prioritise those matchups that are already known and hence already have lines in a smaller post first, then get up thoughts on the remainder after (which naturally might be fairly vague given many matches have up to eight different players in them, hence a potential sixteen permutations of how it might turn out). As with previous years, tomorrow morning I will open up a live post with key thoughts and in-running new bets, do keep it open in a tab and check it occasionally.

Littler/Fullwell - Feel this is close to a bet on Luke despite the market having him as a strong favourite, Nick's just not been playing that well. That said, Nick's not going to give away a great deal cheaply so I can pass this one easily enough at the market price.

van Veen/Owen - We've got a fair bit of good data on this, and it leans towards a no bet. Seeing 62/38 for van Veen, Owen is competent enough that this isn't going to be a one way show despite how highly I rate Gian. 8/11 just doesn't appeal.

Wenig/de Zwaan - Another decent data size game, and another that I feel seems close enough to correct. I've got Jeffrey 55/45, we can get Lukas at a little bit better than what I'd consider a fair line but clearly not enough to consider a punt.

van der Velde/Claydon - Yet more games where we've got good data, and perhaps counter intuitively, Jurjen is favoured in the projections a bit better than 60/40. The market seems close to correct on that basis, another easy one to avoid.

Monk/Andersen - We've not got too much data on Monk, a lot of what we've got on Andersen might be a little underrated. We can get 5/2 on Andersen, which is in the sort of ballpark where, if not for Monk having a decent showing last weekend, I'd be tempted, but I'll take a wide berth here.

Heneghan/Lee - This is a "how good is Heneghan really" sort of question, as well as a "has Lee got better than 2018" question. I'm thinking in terms of the second question it can't be no, and he's got to be able to play better than what he showed in the event last time to have won two qualifiers. 0.1u Lee 3/1, this could spectacularly backfire but I think risk/reward this is fine.

Labre/Klose - Think there's enough evidence here that Klose is not only the better player, he's also playing better right now. Maybe not by a huge deal, so I'll keep the sizing small, but 0.1u Klose 20/21

Jenkins/Warner - Warner seems slightly better right now. Warner is priced accordingly. Temptation to go with Andy based on far superior big match experience is there, but I'll shy away from doing so.

Girvan/Zonneveld - Got a fair bit on both these, and Nathan's not actually that big an underdog. Call it slightly more than 55/45 in Niels' favour. There's a fair bit of a differential between that thought and the actual price, so 0.25u Girvan 2/1.

Goffin/Knops - Weird tie between two brand new card holders who could do with a big win like this. I'm going to go 0.25u Knops 8/11, he seems better, I'm not sure quite so much better given limited sample sizes, but I think it's probably enough that I can take this punt and it's at least not bed.

Cole/van der Wal - Had a look at the line and saw Jitse at 7/4 and thought "is he really that much worse, and is it worth a play" - after further review, he is, and it isn't.

Moston/Neyens - Think this is worth going with Kenny here, 0.25u Neyens 8/13, Jim is steadily improving but looks a fair bit behind where Neyens is at right now, coupled with a clear differential in big game experience I think we can go with Kenny at this price with a fair bit of confidence.

Davey/Evans - Lee's 1/4, if I had anything whatsoever on Gary I could give a better assessment, but I don't, for a complete random it seems the line is fine?

Taylor/Webster - Market has this as a flip. I'm not quite sure why, I had this as fairly close in power rankings but there looks to be a clear tier break and Darren is on the right side of it. 0.25u Webster 10/11, experience will show here I think.

White/Roelofs - How much confidence do we have in Owen? Not a huge amount, but enough that I don't want to be taking a flyer on Stuart at barely better than 2/1. He's got chances but I'd need to see more in terms of price.

Klaasen/Payne - Going to be taking Jelle in this one, 0.1u Klaasen 8/11, I'm only going cautiously on account of a lack of data on Payne and that it's not the greatest of prices, Jelle's been doing great work in terms of getting the match practice and getting the results in it, but Josh is a huge wildcard here.

Richardson/Tricole - Feels like this could easily have been a WDF world quarter at some point recently. Thibault's the favourite, I think he's better but not by a huge deal, really don't know where James' game is at so maybe form based we should take Tricole?

Bialecki/Richardson - Sebastian seems a fair bit better than Joshua at this stage, and has shown great things in this event previously. Is it enough to start punting at 1/2? Feels like it's close, but I'll pass on it.

Nentjes/Kist - Another game that's priced 60/40, this one in favour of Geert, it feels intuitively right, projections based on what Christian has done (which isn't terrible in terms of sample size) are bang on that. Just kind of getting an inkling feeling with Kist having had a good CT weekend that it ought to be the play. But I won't be tempted.

Read/Loose - Read should be comfortable here, but he's 2/5, which isn't particularly interesting, Dan's better but Callum is not a complete random so should be able to keep this respectable.
Hall/Sparidaans - Market's favouring Graham by a small amount, this seems fine to me, on limited data on both I've got him ahead by a small margin.

Sedlacek/Lane - 0.25u Sedlacek 1/5, not going crazy given the short price and Karel not jumping out of the blocks in 2023, but this looks like a complete mismatch.

Grant/Usher - 0.25u Usher 1/4, while I'm not as sold on Graham as I am in the bet for Karel above, Usher appears extremely competent and the 2023 numbers are fine, Noel is a complete random so I can't expect him to put up too much resistance - although I could easily be proven wrong.

Flynn/Wynn - Was tempted to say go with a flyer on Wynn despite knowing very little on him given Michael's not been putting up fantastic stats from where we have seen him, but we can't even get 2/1 on Jon which seems a bit ridiculous. I'm almost wondering if taking the 4/9 is actually the smart play!

Rupprecht/Kenny - Market can't separate the two for all intents and purposes, but I'm going to take a small punt here, 0.1u Kenny evs, as stated in the super brief power rankings post Kenny has the habit of getting things done when it matters, he's actually scoring a bit better as well. Pascal's got all the potential in the world, but for the here and now I'll take Nick.

McEwan/Lauby - Got enough data here to make the master computer seem worthwhile, and it likes Jim. Don't think there's a huge differential between the two, Spreadex actually has Jim odds against which I'd probably take but that's a bit of a random book, so nothing here.

Slevin/Kuivenhoven - It's so, so tempting to go with the rookie who's been hyped by many, myself included. But Maik's the better player, has the stage experience, has the experience full stop, so will go small, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 10/11, almost half want this one to lose but I'm just going to go with the disciplined play.

van Trijp/Holt - Danny's nearly 1/3, that doesn't seem unfair, hard to rag on players coming through the the Dev Tour route, but DvT is a substantially better player as of right now.

Gurney/Pilgrim - Darryl's a similarly priced favourite. Looking at the pure numbers, that doesn't seem unfair.

Burton/Smith-Neale - Market has these two really close, Adam's put up better numbers in my stats, but that's real short data so I'm not sure what weight to put into it, Stephen just feels the better player all round over a sustained period. As Burton is only 11/10, I think it's an easy one to say "let's just avoid it", but wouldn't be surprised to find myself be wrong on this one.

That's all for now, I'll try to get the fixed round 2/3 games out later this evening.

UK Open power rankings

Will get through some thoughts about the actual draw (as well as the bets obv) in due course, but for now, let's rank the 160* players that will be playing. This is only rough, and is just opinions, it's using form, course and distance, scoring, all sorts of things.

160 Christian Perez - sadly not here

159 Corey Cadby - also sadly not here

158 Gary Davey - no real information

157 Noel Grant - same, Grant over Davey is purely arbitrary

156 Jonathan Wynn - nothing recent, but seemingly has some CT experience from the past

155 Daniel Lee - looks to have been here before but didn't end well

154 Callum Loose - has a DT win but nothing notable for ages

153 Stuart White - lot of experience, but been quiet for a while

152 Harry Lane - taking things seriously enough to give Q-School a go, but that didn't go great

151 Callum Goffin - looking a bit out of his depth early on as a card holder

150 Jitse Van der Wal - plugging away alright on the DT but not putting up big numbers

149 Jim Moston - has potential, but metrics don't look brilliant

148 Lewis Gurney - still developing with some occasional bright spots

147 Joshua Richardson - fairly recent DT win offset by mediocre Q-School performances

146 Christopher Holt - maybe not quite the peaks as those before, but a bit more consistent perhaps

145 Conor Heneghan - possibly doing a bit more at the DT level than the above and getting tested at a bit higher level

144 Nick Fullwell - best days probably behind him now, too many first round losses

143 Brett Claydon - scoring not the greatest but showing commitment to bounce back and get a Rileys win

142 Thomas Banks - showing an awful lot of promise at youth level, maybe this is a bit of an early step

141 Andy Jenkins - all the experience in the world, but can he produce the numbers needed at a major level any more

140 Robbie Knops - bit of a random name to have won a card, only so-so performances so far

139 Jarred Cole - has shown great flashes in the past but never really in the PDC, at least not of late

138 Dom Taylor - some experience here, doing alright at secondary level

137 Jim McEwan - won CT's before, not looked hugely out of place at main tour level

136 Vladimir Andersen - real bad first season with a card, some better signs in the early stages in 2023

135 Michael Flynn - competent Q-School showing helps him finish this high up

134 Kenny Neyens - cashed last year and with big stage experience

133 Adam Warner - bit up and down so far as a card holder, but not his first appearance here

132 Damian Mol - not really clicked after winning a card but has pulled off a big shock here before

131 Dan Read - good secondary level reputation with multiple appearances here

130 Darren Webster - never really got going since immediately regaining card, but pedigree is still there

129 Darryl Pilgrim - has put together occasional very high level performances, all that is needed over a short distance

128 Jules van Dongen - tour hasn't really worked out for him to date, not really sure how good his ceiling game is anyway

127 Owen Roelofs - playing well enough to have won a card, slow start to year though and not the greatest 2022

126 Jurjen van der Velde - three secondary level wins last year isn't bad, but statistics aren't brilliant

125 Josh Payne - peak game puts him much higher, but it's been a while since we've seen it

124 Danny Lauby - can string together some good performances, but several mediocre ones and was not close at Q-School

123 Lukas Wenig - fresh off good Euro Tour weekend, gained a lot of experience at the top levels in the last couple of years, free hit after only getting in through Pallett saying no

122 Luc Peters - good Q-School showing for two years in a row, but Pro Tour performances indicate he's a way off a level to hold the card

121 Ross Montgomery - vastly experienced, occasional bright spots in PDC but best game is probably way behind him

120 Devon Petersen - sad how far his game has fallen but it is what it is, maybe big event kicks him into gear

119 James Richardson - bags of talent but a while since that big worlds run and was not close at Q-School

118 Jamie Clark - great start to tour career but on real dry patch, still very much a learning experience

117 Kevin Burness - wealth of experience and appearances on many big stages, not scoring terribly

116 Jimmy Hendriks - WC qualification bink bailed him out of bad 2022, doesn't look tour card holder level

115 Christian Kist - Lakeside winner at peak, won CT to start the year, Kist playing well is dangerous

114 Bradley Brooks - been doing enough to keep getting back on tour, but yet to really make a splash at senior level

113 Darius Labanauskas - horrific 2022, early 2023 results not encouraging, very strong on his game but when did we last see it

112 Danny Jansen - still very young, but looking very much like that Pro Tour win was an enormous fluke and some rebuilding at DT level is needed

111 Ronny Huybrechts - extremely experienced, some very solid wins this season, can maybe bounce of his brother's win and gain confidence

110 Jacques Labre - finally a French player on tour, looked extremely dangerous last season but a real sluggish start to life as a card holder

109 Connor Scutt - started and ended 2022 brilliantly but huge barren run in between, did at least cash last year

108 Tony Martinez - seen occasional good averages, but a lack of noteworthy results make him look one and done as a card holder

107 George Killington - was looking extremely good immediately around when he won his card, but has regressed since then and still looking for a consistent game

106 Radek Szaganski - another player that's not looked bad, but not done enough to make us think there's enough levels to stick around more than a couple of years

105 Daniel Klose - very strong and notable Q-School performances indicate he can turn it on now and then

104 Shaun Wilkinson - not a terrible first year with a card, at least got a stage debut last weekend which wasn't a trainwreck

103 Nathan Girvan - very strong youth pedigree and a DT winner, still learning though and yet to do a great deal on the senior level

102 Arron Monk - very good last weekend, but been away for long enough it could be a fluke

101 Ted Evetts - among the best there's been at youth level, but senior level continues to be a tough nut to crack, maybe never really recovered from that Sherrock game

100 Brian Raman - steady player with a great floor record in the old BDO days, ok start to 2023 indicates he may be eliminating cheap losses while still lacking a big PDC breakthrough

99 Lee Evans - finally on tour, been around and a name we've been waiting to do so for years, in money here more than once and a good quarter final Pro Tour run last season

98 Sebastian Bialecki - all the potential in the world at a venue he clearly likes, just hard to put him much higher while still without a card which he was a fair bit off winning

97 Rusty-Jake Rodriguez - 2021 Rusty is a lot higher, 2022 has been off but could easily have been a "getting used to senior tour" sort of year that's now behind him

96 Jeffrey Sparidaans - quiet for quite a while, but looked extremely good at Q-School and throwing alright on the Pro Tour level

95 James Wilson - stats have been better than results for some time now, peak game is much higher than this but can't justify any higher right now

94 Jelle Klaasen - disappointing not to see him back on tour but had a great 2022 off the tour and has world championship and PL quality at best

93 Pascal Rupprecht - next new young German hope? Full of confidence and no fear

92 Robert Owen - very good course and distance, more than competent floor player

91 John O'Shea - BDO major calibre and with a Pro Tour final, but too many misses and mediocre matches

90 Keegan Brown - not a bad weekend and did get a win last season, but goes missing far too often

89 Adam Gawlas - has spells of three or four legs where he's unplayable, but still very raw

88 Jeffrey De Zwaan - we all know what he can do, but it's a long time since he's done it, at least he got his card back immediately

87 Richie Burnett - not been showing bad stuff for the past half a year or so, got him into a worlds and will want a possible swansong performance

86 Danny van Trijp - twice a CT winner last season, had a win at the worlds, yet to be convinced he can push to the top 64 but knows how to win in a big knockout

85 Graham Usher - been dangerous at the CT level for a while now, looking competent at the next step up

84 Adam Smith-Neale - BDO major winner, scoring not been bad so far this season

83 Stephen Burton - been up and down between the tours for a while, never really pushed on at the Pro Tour level but can certainly take scalps

82 Nick Kenny - has a knack of making runs when it counts

81 Maik Kuivenhoven - a little bit unfortunate to lose his card, but right back on things

80 Graham Hall - very good course and distance here

79 Joe Murnan - shown ability to go on big runs, hanging around at this sort of level

78 Kevin Doets - looked extremely competent for a few years, doesn't give much up

77 Geert Nentjes - thinking this is the next Dutch guy to make a big breakthrough

76 Jose Justicia - consistently looking decent

75 Krzysztof Kciuk - habitually underrated for some time

74 Ricardo Pietreczko - was looking excellent in the second half of 2022 with a big TV win at this venue

73 Lewy Williams - 2022 was meh but good pedigree and shown good signs early this year

72 Dylan Slevin - not quite Rock levels of hype but a Pro Tour semi this year cannot be ignored

71 Nathan Rafferty - done close to everything on the youth stage and ready to take the next step up

70 Niels Zonneveld - if there were more than 64 continual cards would probably have held one for ages

69 Luke Littler - the anticipation from youth to senior is unprecedented and he has done stuff at the next level, just not in the PDC. Will it be too soon? We'll find out very quickly

68 Scott Waites - done incredible things in the BDO, maybe not completely shown in the PDC but cannot be counted out of any match

67 Thibault Tricole - everyone expected him to win a card, didn't quite work out, but first CT weekend makes a statement

66 Jeff Smith - maybe past his best, but knows ways to win

65 Mickey Mansell - showing good signs after a fair bit of a blip a couple of years ago

64 Mario Vandenbogaerde - real solid first year on tour, great non-PDC pedigree, excellent start to 2023

63 Martijn Kleermaker - didn't have brilliant 2022 but did show some sparks towards the back end, calibre in this event

62 Ricky Evans - similar to Kleermaker, but with a really explosive peak

61 Karel Sedlacek - opposite to the above, fantastic 2022 but a bit of a slow start to this year

60 Florian Hempel - winning the event he did in 2022 to get to the worlds is hard, not really dropped levels massively, just been unlucky

59 Keane Barry - overtaken by Rock amongst others in the hype stakes but clearly not a bad player, ultra deep run last year

58 William O'Connor - always been a bit up and down, maybe at a nadir but still a competent operator

57 Cameron Menzies - numbers do not lie, as long as he finds the board he is on he is a threat

56 Boris Krcmar - never really done it on TV, but is absolutely deadly when he wants to be

55 Steve Lennon - probably ran worse than anyone in terms of results than anyone in 2022, showing some alright signs early that he'll correct it

54 Gian van Veen - maybe a stretch, but deadly on secondary tours, already a tour final in the bank and showing early 2023 form

53 Matt Campbell - perfect mix of having shown what he can do on the floor with having a game that excels on the stage

52 Madars Razma - isn't as high up on the rankings as he is for no reason, I can't work it out statistically though

51 Ritchie Edhouse - got into most of the latter stage 2022 majors, picked up some scalps, been a name to avoid in short races for some time now

50 Luke Woodhouse - can produce brilliant stuff but it seems like it's year 69 of him not being able to push above around rank number 50

49 Vincent van der Voort - annus horribilis completed, still young enough to rebuild but needs to do so

48 Ian White - maybe even worse than Vincent's year, not playing bad but not getting results, so will put him slightly above

47 Richard Veenstra - not been card holder long but already looking like he absolutely belongs this high, record in the WDF/BDO cannot be questioned

46 Scott Williams - brilliant 2022, winning a card in the way Ratajski did doesn't go away easily

45 Mike De Decker - improving, improving, improving, numbers don't lie and Edgar's let the cat out of the bag

44 Steve Beaton - experience obv there, but got a good run late in 2022 and played brilliantly last weekend so perfect combination of everything

43 Ryan Joyce - numbers all there, results weren't there in 2022 but showed he can put a game together when it matters

42 Jermaine Wattimena - long way off his peak ranking, but the last six months have been the best he has been playing for a while

41 Rowby-John Rodriguez - stage presence is key, maybe a little bit off form but I think there's enough there to keep him up this high

40 Mervyn King - maybe we've already seen his best, and has been indifferent for over a year now, but over a short race there is still enough game there

39 Martin Lukeman - archetypal match player, will find ways to get it done and won't easily back against him doing so

38 Ryan Meikle - the peak has been demonstrated more than enough times, and he's finding it more often, bad last weekend is a worry though

37 Jamie Hughes - his peak is top sixteen. Has been showing signs that he's getting back towards his 2019 form

36 Mensur Suljovic - still performing enough that he should be within top 32 consideration, but is probably just outside for me

35 Callan Rydz - been a fair bit too much inconsistency for me for some time now, particularly on stage

34 Simon Whitlock - will absolutely put it together when it matters, enormous experience, showing things in 2023, people will not want to play him right now

33 Alan Soutar - late 2021 and early 2022 were meh, but since then he's been in the ascendancy

32 Brendan Dolan - not really done a great deal wrong, just not done quite as much as those ahead of him

31 Adrian Lewis - has the star power and the peak game, as well as a 2022 win, just too many people doing it more often of late

30 Daryl Gurney - seemed to be tailing off a tad, but hasn't been looking bad at all in the early stages of this year, over a moderate distance he can't be discounted

29 Jim Williams - averages in 2023 have been phenomenal, won on the tour, finds ways to win

28 Raymond van Barneveld - previous winner, fairly recent deep TV run, fan favourite, not playing bad

27 Gabriel Clemens - lot of the stats in 2022 may be misleading, huge worlds run can't be ignored

26 Jose De Sousa - another where we might be past the best, but picked things up in the latter half of 2022, so at least trending alright

25 Andrew Gilding - was here where he made his best ever TV run quite some time ago when he hit a purple patch, maybe we're a bit behind the peak of the latest one, but who knows

24 Kim Huybrechts - recent tour winner, hyper confidence player, trending the correct way

23 Martin Schindler - been so, so good over close to a two year period now but still waiting for a first title

22 Chris Dobey - got a TV win but in the most irrelevant event possible, love the player but finding it hard to justify him higher

21 Krzysztof Ratajski - still just plugging away at an elite level, maybe down a couple of percent from his peak but feared by anyone

20 James Wade - 2022 was not good, but he is defending winners money, which points at course, distance and motivation

19 Stephen Bunting - extremely underrated, must be confident after beating MvG last weekend, numbers are there, feels like an event that should suit him

18 Ross Smith - recent major in the bag, and he's outside the top 16. Answer me this - who out of those I list above Ross would you prefer in a last longer?

17 Gary Anderson - game has not gone away, but it's an enormous tournament in terms of rankings and he must be feeling some pressure

16 Nathan Aspinall - was looking as good as anyone in the middle of 2022, but maybe tailed off a bit recently and perhaps the PL tomorrow won't help him?

15 Dimitri Van den Bergh - kind of similar to Nathan, except that he didn't have a brilliant 2023 and the last time we saw him on TV in a ranking major he was getting pwned

14 Joe Cullen - excellent start to the year for someone I've underrated but was getting results regardless. Easily someone I could see grind out a run

13 Ryan Searle - recent Pro Tour win in the bag, has a run at this venue to a final, lots of things to like here

12 Damon Heta - TV form has been relatively shit, but numbers don't lie, was able to make the final day last year

11 Rob Cross - will forever be underrated, literally the only reason I have him down at eleven is that I can make a better case for ten other players

10 Dave Chisnall - fresh off a Euro Tour win, last six months have been the best he's been playing in some time, plenty of experience getting extremely deep in TV majors

9 Danny Noppert - defending champion, recent Pro Tour win, numbers aren't necessarily top 10 but Danny knows how to work with it

8 Josh Rock - hype train maybe has died down a bit but there is no questioning that he is an elite player and with more TV experience behind him, he is only going to get more and more comfortable

7 Dirk van Duijvenbode - Dirk is just that good at this stage. Pro Tour win just now, has been to a major final, can beat anyone on his day

6 Jonny Clayton - major winner, enormous numbers in 2023, just goes about his business, could easily place him one or two spots higher

5 Luke Humphries - first major feels due, very good Euro Tour run last weekend, is doing absolutely nothing wrong, no PL drag factor to worry about

4 Peter Wright - seems to me to be the worst of the "big four" right now, which may be a title I've just made up, but PL results are a concern

3 Gerwyn Price - looked fantastic in Kiel, game is still right up there and a Gerwyn right up there is a threat to win any tournament

2 Michael Smith - must have an unprecedented level of freedom and confidence in TV events right now

1 Michael van Gerwen - still the best player in the world, come at me

Come at me?

Chizzy wins it

Apologies for not posting up anything either this morning or late yesterday, real life things caught up with me so couldn't post up a bets post for the last sixteen. That said, nothing much was missed - I was at least able to look at oddschecker this morning and didn't see any lines that were way out of kilter, or at least worthy of further investigation. So we didn't get much action on, and just down a small amount - will surely make up for that with the biggest betting day of the year coming up just on Friday, with the UK Open kicking off. To make up for it, I'm going to try to do a power rankings of all 160 entrants (assuming all the tour card holders turn up - whether Cadby, Perez etc play is obviously questionable), which should NOT be intended as a "well, this guy is #108 and he's playing #111 and he's 11/10 BET ALL THE MONEY sort of thing, there will be the usual round 1 and known round 2/3 matches tips thread in advance, and an in-running additional bets and notes thread as things progress. For now, Chizzy beat Humphries in the final, Luke not being quite able to say a full fuck you to the Premier League selection cabal, but Chizzy continues what's becoming an extended purple patch, and he's got to be considered as live as anyone for next weekend. Clayton continued his good form as well, Searle made a best run at this level to date, while Schindler, Beaton, Brown and van Duijvenbode rounded off the last eight. Nice job by Bunting as well to take out MvG.

But to end this post off, will only be a quick one, new FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Peter Wright

4 Gerwyn Price

5 Luke Humphries

6 Nathan Aspinall

7 Rob Cross

8 Danny Noppert

9 Dimitri van den Bergh

10 Jonny Clayton

11 Dirk van Duijvenbode

12 Joe Cullen

13 Dave Chisnall (UP 4)

14 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)

15 Ryan Searle

16 Damon Heta (DOWN 2)

17 Gabriel Clemens (DOWN 1)

18 Jose de Sousa

19 Chris Dobey (UP 1)

20 James Wade (DOWN 1)

Yep, despite Dobey having not even tried to qualify for this event in order to prioritise Newcastle losing a cup final, and despite Wade having shown up and won a match, Dobey actually moves ahead. Chizzy naturally gets a huge boost, the increased money up top making enough of a difference to get him ahead of Smith. Lower down, Beaton's quarters run gets him up to #53, Brown is one outside the top 60, while Martijn Dragt isn't a complete newcomer but is slotted into the 160's somewhere.

Expect a busy few days of posts as we get into full UK Open fever.

Kiel day 2

Slightly odd day one, some good performances, some not so, down on the betting with both the underdogs losing, Wade showing up isn't unexpected and Mioch generally outplaying his opponent but just missing doubles isn't also unexpected on debut. Oddschecker is asleep at the wheel again so just going to look at 365, Betfair and Coralbrokes and go from there.

Searle/Vandenbogaerde - Mario didn't do anything yesterday to make me think he's playing exceptionally well, just getting over the line in a tight, sluggish match which was all holds of throw. Not drawing completely dead at about a 30% chance, but we're only seeing 5/2 which is spot on, and we'd need more than usual given the form Searle is in.

Cross/Dragt - Martijn got through without showing anything special, more to do with the level of opponent than anything. Still too little data to get a real comfortable projection, the 5/1 that we're seeing on some bookies looks OK, maybe the 8/1 on Ladbrokes is a little much and might be worth a small stab, but I won't recommend it.

Chisnall/Williams - Lewy didn't look too bad, especially finishing the game off, but this is an entire different opponent and he doesn't even have 20% chances here. 2/7 on 365 for Chizzy isn't completely out of consideration but I'd need a little bit more. 1/3 I'd probably go small, anything longer I'd look at a standard play, but I really don't see the line going that way.

van den Bergh/Edhouse - Ritchie was comfortable in dispatching Wilkinson, nothing spectacular, just steady play was enough. Ritchie's a bit undervalued here, I'm seeing him as having enough quality to win this more than one in three, being closer to 40% than that mark ever so slightly, so 0.1u Edhouse 16/5 on Ladbrokes, he may need to improve his game a bit from yesterday to realise the equity but he has big TV wins over better players than Dimitri in recent memory.

Cullen/Monk - Arron seemed quite happy to get the win, didn't play badly, but Cullen right now is going to be too strong. Still lacking data as Monk is only just back to the tour so wouldn't want to guess at a true line, but the 7/2 we can get doesn't look like near enough for an underdog play, would need a full point before we even start thinking about that one.

Heta/Brooks - Bradley didn't play great, but Josh just couldn't score often enough, or hit doubles when he could, so the scoreline looks a touch lopsided. 1/7 for Damon actually looks about right, that's just how much better he is.

Noppert/Brown - Keegan looked alright, a couple of sloppy legs but was generally scoring alright in the legs he was losing, maybe it's a different story if Filip was a touch more clinical, who knows. Danny at 1/3 looks about right, I've got Brown at slightly more than a one in four chance, we are not getting anywhere near the price to consider it, or for that matter for a bet to be break even.

van Duijvenbode/Veenstra - Lot of breaks in this game, seems like in many cases Florian was on a double then Richard came back and punished a miss, still Flyers is through and this should be a very good game, the line looks about right with Dirk being around 1/3 or slightly shorter, that's roughly what I'm seeing on fairly limited data on Richard, it feels correct with how well DvD is playing.

Aspinall/Beaton - Steve was probably the standout player of yesterday with all legs won in fifteen darts or less and a 106 average in the two he lost, not bad at all and play like that again would easily see him through here. On long data I'm seeing this as a 2-1 game. Beaton is 11/5. If you think that wasn't a fluke and he's outperforming longer data (it was towards the back end of last year where he did go on a deep Pro Tour run after all), then don't let me stop you.

Clayton/Evetts - Ted did for our bet on Mioch yesterday, didn't look great with just the one leg won in five visits, but he was there or there abouts to punish missed chances often enough. He's not going to get that against Clayton, maybe Evetts at 4/1 is a little long but I'm not going there the way Jonny is playing.

Price/Usher - Graham got the win over Joyce yesterday, not a great performance with multiple seven visit holds, but he's not going to care. Can't see Price losing this one, but Graham's competent enough that we can't really see a play - a best of 1/6 on Gerwyn isn't a tempter in the slightest, and I can't see that Usher converts often enough to take the near 5/1 which Coralbrokes are throwing out there.

Humphries/Gurney - Daryl got a good win yesterday, probably the most entertaining game of the day, and has got to be considered somewhat live in this one with Luke maybe not quite at the peak of his game and Gurney having had a good kickoff to 2023, relatively speaking. Long data says 70/30, we can get slightly longer than 1/2 on Luke which doesn't look bad on paper, but on form maybe there's enough of a shift that it goes to being just the wrong side of a break even play. Clearly not touching the 6/4 or there abouts on Daryl.

Smith/Springer - Niko came through the match with Wattimena with a decent enough showing, fears about form being unfounded and maybe an opportunity to bet missed. Michael is surely going to be too good here, 9/2 on Springer doesn't look like an awful bet, but given the confidence Smith must have right now, I think he's outperforming his larger data sample and get home way more often than the limited data I have says he will (which is about 70% of the time).

Wright/Wade - James looked good yesterday, no doubt about it, and with a repeat performance he can easily give Peter plenty to think about, and that's something the market is perhaps overreacting to. I'm seeing Peter as having 71% chances, and we can get 1/2 - maybe he's not performing as well as his long data (the Premier League being the best evidence we have of that), who knows. I think there's enough uncertainty going in James' favour to not consider what would have been slim Snakebite value here.

van Gerwen/Bunting - Stephen had a good win against O'Connor, who did well to stay in touch after a quick 3-0 scoreline, and now Bunting faces MvG, which I think should be a great clash. As mentioned before, Stephen's a tad underrated, and I'm seeing just slightly over a one in three chance for this one at around 35%. We can get 5/2 which I think is getting close to considering, I would have hoped we could see 3/1 which I'd definitely take for a small play. Monitor the line, maybe money comes in on Michael and shifts it further in our favour. Might throw out an exchange price to see if we get there.

Schindler/Wenig - Final game and it guarantees a German into Sunday (well, there's only the one other one left), Lukas taking apart an out of sorts Ryan Meikle by a 6-1 margin. Schindler should be too good here, the lines of 3/10 that I can see pretty much exactly coincide with the 76% my projections give us.

So just the one play, but there's a few to think about if you disagree one way or the other with my analysis and want to take some which aren't bad, just not big value. Good luck everyone and back for the last sixteen.

Kiel Friday bets

Let's go in running order:

Evans/Dragt - We can get slightly longer than 2/1 on Martin. That feels about right, maybe it's slightly closer than that with Ricky's mediocre form, but with the lack of data on the other side I'm generally going to avoid tips where it feels like it's in, if not the right ballpark, at least the right postcode.

Zonneveld/Vandenbogaerde - Niels is priced as a very tiny favourite in this one (shorter than Mario, but we can't get odds against on Mario either). From the data this looks to be where I'm at, so no bet here.

Williams/Nilsson - Lewy's available at 8/13 on 365, I think that's close enough to be a small play - 0.1u Williams 8/13, not convinced with Dennis's level of play and the break ought to have allowed Lewy to reset. Only small, but think there's a play here.

Sebesta/Brown - Is 9/2 enough to take the Czech upcomer here? Instinctively given the opponent I feel like it should be, but the limited data I've got on Filip is not encouraging. If he plays like he did against Bialecki in the semi of the quali then it's a really easy play, but that seems like an outlier. I'll pass it, but would not be surprised if come 2pm it was the wrong play to do so - even if Keegan wins it.

Mioch/Evetts - I think Jeroen is a live enough dog in this one given Ted's level of play to take a small shot here despite limited data - 0.1u Mioch 2/1 on 365 (literally just moved from 11/5 in the last couple of minutes). This is more an indictment of Evetts rather than an endorsement of Mioch, but coming through that level of qualifier takes some talent, enough that this is worth a small play.

Monk/Dolan - Brendan's big odds on here, showing at around a 75% favourite. If that's off, I can't be thinking it's off by a significant enough amount that there's any sort of play either way.

Wattimena/Springer - Market is favouring Jermaine a little more than I was thinking it might be here, we can get 13/8 in multiple places on Niko, which I think is worth considering. If we'd seen a bit more from Springer recently, then I think I could get behind a play a bit more. The play in the German Super League was at least good. I'll avoid it just based on Jermaine getting back towards his best, but wouldn't be surprised if this is an error.

Brooks/Payne - Bookies can barely separate them, similar spot to the second game with Payne playing the role of Zonneveld. That looks fine to me, easy enough one to avoid, maybe with more data on Josh down the road we can take a firmer point of view and maybe consider Bradley, but we don't have that right now.

Wilkinson/Edhouse - Another one which is more or less where I thought it would be, market is correctly asserting that Ritchie is a favourite, but recognising that Shaun's got some quality and generally putting him in the 6/4 to 2/1 range. Don't think there's anything here, maybe the 9/5 on Shaun on Coralbrokes is getting close, but can't truly recommend it.

Joyce/Usher - Initial thought is that Ryan's maybe priced a little bit too short. We can get north of 2/1 on Graham, that feels close. If we were seeing 5/2, I'd probably be "fuck it, bet", but 11/5 isn't quite tasty enough. Usher is on debut after all.

Meikle/Wenig - Line looks close to perfect, Meikle's 1/2, 4/9, that sort of thing, and we said he'd win two in three.

O'Connor/Bunting - Stephen's about the same price as the above. Thought that might have been priced closer and we'd have a play. Oh well, one to avoid.

Hempel/Veenstra - Market can barely split them. If a bookie is not going 10/11 pick your poison, they're giving Veenstra a wafer thin edge. That coincides with where we're at, should be a closely fought battle with maybe form deciding it.

Wade/van Barneveld - Market can't split them? Seems a little bit off that. 0.1u van Barneveld 10/11, Wade is definitely live but we're only putting him at around the 40% chance range, which I think is enough of a margin to make a small play.

Clemens/Gurney - Another one where the bookies aren't making a decision on who will win, and as we can't split them by much, there's an easy pass on this one.

Beaton/Lewis - They do make a decision on this one, and that's to price Steve as a 35-40% chance player in our final opening round game. Sadly that means that the vig is such that we can't really look at a play on Lewis, 8/15 on 365 isn't an awful play, but it's only break even as far as I can see, and we're not looking at betting for the sake of betting.

So just the three small plays in round one, maybe we could have gone a bit heavier on Raymond but let's just take small steps this early in the season. Back tomorrow morning probably for round two.

Kiel round one draw thoughts

The draw's already out, which makes a refreshing change from it being at the last minute, so let's have a scan through what we've got.

Humphries v Clemens/Gurney - Decent first round game between two players who are fairly evenly matched up in terms of rankings and statistics, Clemens is a real slight favourite (smack in the middle of 50% and 55%) but given the injury issues that Gabriel wasn't mentioning and the possibility that he's underperformed a bit, maybe it's a touch of an underestimate. That said, Daryl's had a decent start to the year. Luke ought to be around a 2-1 favourite against either.

van den Bergh v Wilkinson/Edhouse - Not seen a huge amount of Shaun, but he's played decently enough, and has got some OK results on occasions. Ritchie's had a bit more notable success but isn't an overwhelming favourite, call it between 55% and 60%. Dimitri's not an overwhelming favourite if Ritchie gets through, call it between 60% and 65%.

Smith v Wattimena/Springer - Jermaine was picking up his form towards the end of the year, while Niko was doing his better stuff in the start of the year, so while Niko is a similar level of favourite to Ritchie based on the raw data, form based stats might make this more of a flip than first appears. Smith's around a 3-1 favourite against Jermaine.

van Duijvenbode v Hempel/Veenstra - Interesting first round game, Florian's had a quiet 2022, while Richard has had a great start to 2023, and probably has a small edge, around 55%, maybe a little bit more. Dirk's a huge step up in class though, especially coming off a Pro Tour win, and should be a 3-1 favourite again.

Cross v Evans/Dragt - Limited data on Dragt, with only just over 50 legs in the last year that make the database, while the Challenge Tour results weren't great despite making a final, averaging under 85. That ought to give Ricky a solid edge, but it's hard to truly quantify. Rob ought to be too classy for either, over a 70% shot against Ricky.

Searle v Zonneveld/Vandenbogaerde - Nice low countries derby here, which appears to be an extremely close one to call with Niels only having the tiniest of edges, and ought to be moderately live against Searle, having a bit more than a one in three shot, but given that Ryan's just recently got a win, maybe there is more chance for Searle than that.

Wright v Wade/van Barneveld - What a great set of games this is. Wade's continued to be just alright, and should be only a little bit more than a 40% dog against a resurgent Barney. Peter's naturally going to be favoured, but the quality in the opening game is such that it's only between a 60% and a two in three favourites tag against RvB, so this section could legitimately go any of three ways.

Noppert v Sebesta/Brown - Don't know too much about the Czech qualifier, averages in the Challenge Tour was down in the low 80's and the only legs we got in the database were a 6-0 reverse averaging down in the mid 70's. Keegan should be comfortable here, but easily outclassed by Danny, who's probably slightly closer to a three in four favourite than two in three.

van Gerwen v O'Connor/Bunting - Great first round game here, Willie's going to be consistent while Bunting's quietly getting good stats and is probably one of the more underrated players on the circuit at this time, and actually projects at 65%, which is a bit more than I thought it would be. That's actually what MvG would be against Bunting as well, oddly enough.

Clayton v Mioch/Evetts - I only have one match worth of data on Mioch, which looked alright in defeat, and his Challenge Tour weekend saw an 85 average, which against Evetts, ought to see him live although a dog. Hard to gauge how much though. Clayton ought to be extremely comfortable here, one of the biggest favourites we've seen so far at a bit over 75% if he was to play Ted in the second round.

Aspinall v Beaton/Lewis - This is an interesting opener, Beaton's still not going away and Adie's still looking to reassert a position in the top 32, Adie's probably winning this about two in three so Steve's still playing well enough to be live against a quality operator. Lewis is not too big of an underdog against Nathan, I'm actually seeing projections as a basic flip to the closest five percent, so could be a bit of value in this one.

Cullen v Monk/Dolan - Arron's back on tour, not done a great deal yet so tough to really extrapolate what he might do against Brendan, would think he's a solid dog but he's shown a few occasional good legs, just a case of putting it together more frequently. Cullen's started 2023 like a train (PL exclusion told you so factor?), but Dolan has enough quality that he ought to only be about a 60/40 underdog, so Joe won't have it all his own way.

Heta v Brooks/Payne - Limited data on Josh at this stage, didn't do a great deal in 2022 and been a quiet start on the Pro Tour so far. Probably been playing slightly better than Brooks has over that period, although whether Bradley's play against a consistently higher level of opposition will be beneficial will be seen. I'd call it a flip, then Damon should be an enormous favourite - 85% I'm seeing.

Schindler v Meikle/Wenig - Ryan's going to have to come through two home favourites to make the money, we've got a lot of data on Lukas for a non card holder, but it only shows that the ever improving Meikle is about a 2-1 favourite. He's good enough now that despite playing against one of the stories of the last couple of years, he's still got about a 40% chance, so he could get on a bit of a run here.

Chisnall v Williams/Nilsson - Lewy had a down 2022, Nilsson has a decent chunk of data mostly from the Nordic tour and is scoring about four points worse, so let's call Williams a solid enough favourite - 2/1 looks about right. Dave's got to be happy with this draw, a fair line against Lewy would be about 1/5 shall we say?

Price v Joyce/Usher - Ryan's still playing well, although had a '22 with not the greatest of results, while Graham's newly on tour but scoring a few points below, so let's install Joyce as a fair favourite, and call him as having a 30% shot against Gerwyn? He's done this before if I remember rightly, so live.

Checking for lines later.

Changes I'd make if I was Matt Porter

I did one of these posts a while back, and I thought it's due a revision. Looking back, I did this just after the previous UK Open, for some reason I thought I did it a bit further back than that, but I guess not. Still, let's go, that post (http://www.tungstenanalysis.com/2022/03/ten-things-i-would-do-if-i-was-matt.html) had ten, I don't know how many I'll go with, but we'll see - this is a post I was going to make anyway, but the PDC having announced a much greater offering for the UK Open, with EVERY game being streamed (what level of production we'll get on boards 3-8 is yet to be seen), it's one of the things I'd have liked, so what else would I do?

1 - PUT EVERYTHING ON DART CONNECT

This is a redo from point number one of the previous post, but it still stands. If you want to keep using sportradar for feeding the bookies, that's fine - that doesn't mean you can't do what you do with the UK Open and relay the televised boards to Dart Connect afterwards. It would make stat compilation much easier, and having all the stats in one place would be of some use to the casual fan.

2 - DIVERSIFY YOUR SPONSORS

This is something I've touched on before back when the entirety of the PDC's sponsors were bookies - commenting on the natural fear that if governments were to crack down on gambling advertising (because personal responsibility isn't allowed these days), the PDC and Matchroom in general would be up shit creek. Now it's kind of the same issue, except that the worlds, Premier League, Slam, Euros, PC Finals, UK Open and Masters are all sponsored by Cazoo. I've made the comparison before, might have been on here, might have been on Twitter, I can't remember, but the last time I saw a company sponsoring so much stuff was Football Index, and we all know how that ended up. They've got a pretty wide array of secondary sponsors, surely one of them could take the step up and take on a big event?

3 - TOP UP STAGE TWO OF Q-SCHOOL WITH DAY ONE NEARLYMEN

This is another redo, but it's one that continues to make huge sense, and would prevent bye issues, points only being awarded from the last 32 etc - and this started happening in day one of the UK side with Jenkins only playing the one day on a weekend. Similar with issues of players playing the final day and actually being worse off as a result of doing so - this is a direct result of the points system combined with not having a full field of 128. Fix it. While we're at it, increase the number of straight passes in stage one to sixteen each day. With the fields the size they are, nobody who gets to that stage is not going to get in through points anyway, so why bother making them (or at least giving them the chance to) play it out?

4 - TRIM THE CHALLENGE/DEVELOPMENT TOUR UK OPEN SPOTS AND REDISTRIBUTE

The Riley's qualifiers are great, but there's a bit of a problem in that they're all distributed in England - whereas previously they were a bit more evenly spread out. Scotland in particular doesn't have any, while there's five within a stone's throw of London. Wales is also not represented, but at least the northern side could easily enough get to the Chester and Manchester events. I am guessing there is some reason why they can't hold one at the Aberdeen or Swansea venues, but if not, why not cut the spots down to six for each of the secondary tours, and then hold four separate qualifiers? How much interest would there be in holding a couple on the continent - one in Germany, one in the Netherlands perhaps? Maybe also, given that they kind of get fucked by not having had the opportunity to get a Challenge Tour spot, have a qualifier straight after Q-School for those players who immediately lost their tour card (and didn't regain it) to get a "goodbye" bonus and win through to the UK Open? It's been seen a few times that players have just gone and won a Riley's qualifier anyway, so why not keep more spots open for potential true amateurs?

5 - GREATER COLLABORATION WITH WDF AND AFFILIATED ORGANISATIONS

For that Scottish event suggested above, could the PDC not have looked into tacking it onto the just-run Scottish Open, either straight before or after (on outside boards while they're playing the stage finals maybe)? For the initial European Tour associate qualifiers, could they not have worked around the Dutch Open, using side boards at the end of the Friday/Saturday? That one in particular makes sense given that any affiliate worth their salt would be at the venue anyway. You'll probably get a stronger affiliate field, you might help the hosting event in question, and it should theoretically save player's expenses.

6 - TRIAL AN ONLINE STREAMED "MAJOR"

Something I suggested in the previous post, which seemingly hasn't really been done, is that PDC.TV basically doesn't have anything of worth to viewers in regions where there is an established TV deal in place. So why not, as an experiment, organise an event which is available to watch ONLY on the stream worldwide for a one-off payment amount, which is then available for replay afterwards as you've got no TV production company holding back the rights for an extreme amount of time, if not ad infinitum? I wouldn't be suggesting an enormous prize pool, maybe just a European Tour tournament format event on steroids with a ~50% boost to prize money compared to one of those events. If they had a £250k prize pool compared to £175k on the Euro Tour, they'd only need to sell 50k passes at a fiver a pop to break even on the prize money assuming that sponsors wouldn't be interested, then live ticket/booze sales ought to get close to covering venue hire and their own production costs. I for one would quite easily pay into three figures a year direct to the PDC if I got all the events, including the ones Sky/ITV currently have exclusivity for. Why not start to work out whether there is the customer demand for this with a small step? If it doesn't work, it's not as if it's going to really break the bank.

7 - CUT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE CHALLENGE TOUR TO FOUR EVENTS

Moving event five to the second weekend and having events 1-4 run across the same length of time would eliminate an awful lot the tournament/day length issues that are caused by the added number of players which naturally play the first set with the idea of hoping to run good and then maybe get into a Pro Tour callup spot and/or international players having made the trip for Q-School and other events then stopping around.

That I think is the lot for now without hugely repeating myself from a year ago. Check in tomorrow by around this time for initial Kiel thoughts.