Sunday 30 April 2023

Quick quarter final thoughts

Small gain today, might have been better but for Schindler missing doubles (one in two earlier legs, multiple in the last leg) which on another day makes it 4-4 or better, we move on:

Barry/van Gerwen - One sided as you might imagine, I've got Keane as having exactly a one in four shot, first couple of lines I see say 3/1 and 11/4, next.

Wright/Chisnall - Appears very close. Would give Chizzy the edge, but only at a 10/11 par price. First two lines I see can't split the two so no value here.

Bunting/Heta - Yeah, Stephen keeps moving on, and he's got decent chances to do so again here. I'm seeing 43%, books maybe underestimating Heta slightly (I see 5/6 and 4/5 the first two places I look) but not enough to risk a punt, I'd need evens really.

Noppert/Humphries - Not seeing lines for this one yet, but this one appears moderately tight. I'm seeing 56/44 in favour of Luke, maybe just nudge it to 55/45 given the event is in the Netherlands. I'd need evens to start thinking about Luke, and 6/4 to start thinking about Danny, and it seems very unlikely that we see either, more likely we see something like an 8/11 vs evens line in favour of Humphries.

Leeuwarden last 16

Little bit of a rough day two. Hurts to see Clayton blow a position like that, but we'll happily trade that for Wright getting the win against Ratajski when he needed snookers. Dirk did the job, while Smith gave Williams a bit too much to do, although with three clear at double for 5-5, who knows what might have happened on another day. Big props to a couple of people playing outside of the Netherlands - Gian van Veen went straight across to the Development Tour overnight and won the first one, so great dedication there, and Andy Baetens continues to show why I thought he would win a card, he didn't but seems to be getting all the cake in the WDF system - and one we'll hope to see next weekend on the Euro Tour who could do some damage.

Let's quickly run through today in the same format as yesterday, I think it works well and makes the pertinent points clearer, no oddschecker so just comparing 365, Betfair, Hills and Laddies.


0.1u Schindler 3/1 vs van Gerwen - Hills have this price, but I think 11/4 or there abouts is more than fine. Martin's really good, and I have him at 38% - easily more than enough for a small flier. MvG looked solid yesterday in despatching Clemens while Schindler didn't really need to get out of second gear to put aside Roman Benecky, so he'll need to be sharp early, but we go with this edge every time.
0.1u Wright 13/8 vs Smith - Over year long stats I've got this as Smith barely ahead, 51/49. Clearly Wright is not playing as well of late, and he did suffer a bad reverse against the same opponent on Thursday, but this feels like a free hit situation given the nature of the win against Ratajski. I would go larger, but Smith's win yesterday looked really good which coupled with what I've just mentioned, makes me temper expectations hugely.
0.25u Heta 4/7 vs van Peer - Berry dodged some bullets yesterday but got the job done, with a pretty good performance it has to be said. Heta was just steady against Beaton, albeit with a couple of legs off once he had the fifth leg on the board, which he'd like to avoid really. Hills have this line, but anywhere up to 1/2 looks good - I've got Damon at 77%, so even 1/2 offers a very solid 10% edge.


Noppert > Aspinall - This is extremely close. We can get 11/10, which is implying he's a slight underdog. I see Danny at 53%, which is basically 10/11, so the other way around. Add in Danny being at home, and it's even more tempting. Add in Aspinall not doing anything against Gurney which was spectacular, and we can go even closer, but at the same time Noppert was just alright against Razma, who couldn't sustain his form from Friday. I don't mind this play but won't officially recommend it - if you see on sportradar that Noppert has won the bull and the market still gives odds against, I think that's all the edge you need.

How about no's:

Barry/Searle - Got this one at 36% for Keane, who did play a great game yesterday (as did Searle in fairness). The lines are close enough, we can get up to 7/4 on the Irishman which looks about break even, clearly the vig makes a play on Ryan impossible not being able to breach 1/2.
Chisnall/Rock - No bookies can separate the two, only Laddies have Rock ever so slightly favoured but that's all down to a slightly greedier vig structure. Chizzy played better yesterday and has actually moved fractionally ahead of Josh in year long scoring, translating to a 53% chance, but that's basically 10/11 and all we can get.
van Duijvenbode/Bunting - Maybe regretting not taking a small stab on Stephen yesterday, but it wasn't a great win and he could easily have lost that. Similar for Dirk, merely OK against Slevin and needed a deciding leg break, oof. I've got 62% Dirk, generally seeing 8/13, 4/7 sort of lines which looks about right, Bunting clearly by implication is nowhere near a play.
Humphries/Gilding - Pretty clear no play. Vig is killing us on this one. I have Luke just shy of 60%, he seems generally 4/6 or 8/13, Andrew is no better than 5/4 so appears the worse play - although while both looked decent yesterday, Gilding looked extremely impressive. So maybe on the basis of yesterday, both bets are equally bad.

50/50 whether I get any tips up on the quarters. Will depend if I go for the Liverpool/Spurs game.

Saturday 29 April 2023

Leeuwarden day 2

Bit of a rough day yesterday, going three out of three on losing bets - van Veen against Clemens going all the way but Razma and van den Bergh were unplayable, looking at someone else's stats we ran into the number 1, 2 and 6 players of the day. Can't do much about that. Still, at least we're not Gary Anderson, jesus. Bit of a weird day in that there were a lot of one sided results, let's see what happens today.


0.25u Clayton 2/5 vs van Peer - Only Hills have this line but it's safe enough to play, the van Peer hype is maybe a little bit too silly in this spot as I have Jonny at nearer 80% than 75%, I wouldn't go any shorter than that though.
0.1u Williams 11/4 vs Smith - We really like Jim's game and it's undervalued significantly, getting approaching 3/1 when he's closer to having 40% chances than 35% is a great line, I'm only going small because of the level of opponent he's facing but this really isn't a just about one in four win game.
0.25u Wright 4/5 vs Ratajski - I'm kind of surprised to see the line this close, but not surprised to see it where it is. This is flying in the face of form, but Ratajski was merely good rather than spectacular yesterday and Wright did beat MvG the other day, so maybe something's turning around. I've got Peter at 61% so the edge is here I think.
0.25u van Duijvenbode 4/11 vs Slevin - Another Hills special, same thing with Clayton really, this is implying less than a 75% chance when Dirk is really over 80%. Pretty easy play.

Close calls:

Bunting > Cullen - If you have money on whatever a Betway is, that line seems like it's a small play, but otherwise there's not quite enough with most places giving Bunting 11/10 and the odd 6/5. I'd have him as the 10/11 favourite on a vig free line, it's certainly close and Stephen did play well.
Schindler > Benecky - Roman didn't really need to do much to beat Anderson yesterday in a very weird performance, we're not getting 1/7 sorts of lines, but 2/9 seems maybe to be a little bit of value as I really don't see Martin messing this one up.
Gurney > Aspinall - On the face of the projection alone it should be no chance, as we only get Daryl at 41% and he's 6/4, but he looked really impressive yesterday with just the one bad leg where both scored indifferently and Pietreczko missed three clear to close the leg off.
Clemens > van Gerwen - Was a really impressive game from Gabriel against a tough opponent and our projections might undervalue him slightly given his injury issues last year, but we can only get 11/4 and the projection only gives just a fraction of a percent under 30% so we need more before we can pull out the wallet.

No chances:

Rock/Hall - Market may be ever so slightly underestimating Josh here but it's only to extent where the vig makes it Josh that's the neutral play, and Graham the slightly bad one. With Hall looking decent yesterday it's fine.
Chisnall/Lukeman - If anything this one is even worse, the projection is right down the middle.
Gilding/White - Seems easily close enough to where the line at, maybe White is undervalued by a percentage point or two but we're not even at the stage where it's a close call.
Cross/Barry - Fantastic start to the session for value this, Cross line seems absolutely perfect, Barry a bad bet ever so slightly.
Noppert/Razma - Projections are giving Danny a little bit more of a chance than what the line suggests, but it's only by a couple of percent and with Madars looking really good yesterday, it's easily enough to keep us in the no chance section.
Heta/Beaton - Market appears to be correctly assessing that Heta is still really good, but also calling Beaton right in that he's resurgent with another good win yesterday.
Searle/van den Bergh - We thought that Ryan would be a small dog here in the pre tournament preview, and that's exactly what he is, Dimi at 55% with a 4/5 line is spot on.
Humphries/Smith - Maybe Luke's undervalued by a percentage point or two, but given relative recent form I don't think it's too far off to think about.

Thursday 27 April 2023

ET6 round 1 picks

Going to post this in somewhat of a different format to usual - highlighting the plays first, then those where I was at least thinking about it, followed by those where there is no value. No oddschecker, so I'm just looking at 365, Betfair, Coralbrokes and Hills.


0.25u O'Shea 13/8 against Razma, I've got him ever so slightly favoured in a game between two players moderately similar in results, so getting a line that implies he has less than a 40% chance? Yes please.
0.25u van Veen 11/8 against Clemens, I'm pretty sure when I checked earlier this evening to see if lines had been posted he was even longer, I still think this is easily on the right side and 5/4 is still decent, maybe even ever so slightly shorter. 11/10 would probably be about my limit before cutting bet sizing.
0.1u van Barneveld 13/10 against van den Bergh, using the opportunity to go small here, this seems just enough edge in a pure flip, coupled with Dimitri travelling post Premier League and it's fucking Barney in the Netherlands, maybe Raymond outperforms projections more than we think.


Hall > Gawlas - 365 are real close with their 6/4 line. Certainly don't hate it, hence it's in the maybes, just kind of think Graham might take a leg or two to get used to the stage, which might be all Adam needs.
Soutar > van Peer - 5/6 is perhaps slightly on the favourable side, it's certainly very close, but I'm willing enough to give Berry the benefit of the doubt in terms of form.
Monk > White - This is basically down to the whole sample size issue I highlighted. Hills are offering 7/4, which if we take my suggested adjustment from what the limited data says, isn't a bad play. Question is whether I adjusted enough or too much. If it's the former, it's not a play, if it's the latter, we look silly. We don't need to bet for the sake of it, but for around a 0.1 level play, I don't hate it.
Pietreczko > Gurney - Ricardo's a rising star, and we can get 6/4 in places for a 45% shot, maybe I'd go tiny at 13/8, but they're both in ascendant form so inclined not to push things against Daryl here.
Beaton > Huybrechts - Steve is 13/10 everywhere I can see, which is the exact same situation we see in the Barney/Dimi game, except without the intangibles which pushes me over the edge to betting.

No chances:

Ratajski/Boulton -  Lines are all too similar and are middling by 70/30 projection.
Barry/Kantele - The better ends of the lines are more or less break even taking Keane, but we don't bet break even.
Williams/Killington - Market is just a touch favouring Jim more than what I see it, but it's so incredibly marginal there's nothing to even think about.
Lukeman/Dragt - This was close to being a maybe on Dragt given you can get more than a tick or two north of 2/1, but the averages in the quali weren't convincing enough.
Slevin/Hausotter - I mean this could look really silly if Hausotter turns out to be terrible and we get a good Slevin turn up, but we can't get better than 1/4, any edge we're passing up isn't a big deal.
Anderson/Benecky - 1/7 feels like it's safe, but you never know, weird stuff might happen.
Bunting/Smith-Neale - Another limited data pass, if we'd got maybe another 20-30 won legs worth of sample size then maybe we could bump 11/4 up into the maybes category, but we don't need to. Maybe the market is with me that there's a sense the general public is underrating Bunting.
Smith/Wattimena - Line is right bang in the middle where my 70/30 thoughts are losing both ways to vig.

Check back Saturday morning at the latest for round two stuff.

Leeuwarden thoughts

The quali is done so we know everyone's game, not yet seeing lines (assuming they were waiting to see who came through to start pricing?), but we can get an idea of where we want to be punting now. First, FRH rankings pre event following Clayton's win over Rock last weekend (these include mincashes for this weekend, drop Noppert a place otherwise):

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Rob Cross
8 Jonny Clayton (UP 3)
9 Danny Noppert
10 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 2)
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
12 Joe Cullen
13 Ross Smith
14 Dave Chisnall
15 Damon Heta
16 Ryan Searle
17 Andrew Gilding (UP 1)
18 Gabriel Clemens (DOWN 1)
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

I'll post up odds later this evening (NFL draft is tonight so I'm staying up and doubt I'll be up before the session starts), but for now, the opinions:

Rock v Hall/Gawlas - We've not seen a lot out of Gawlas since his UK Open run, so will be interesting to see how his stage game continues, similarly this is going to be a good spot to see what Hall can do, I'm thinking Adam has a small edge, 55/45 or there abouts, but Rock should be far, far too strong for either opponent - up into the top 25 of the FRH rankings already and still a steady fifth on the yearly rolling scoring (to go off on a tangent, Price is actually top of that now, that's how good he's been recently), sticking a game between Josh and Adam right in the middle of 70% and 75%.

Chisnall v Lukeman/Dragt - Martin's still doing alright, but seems to have fallen a little bit off the radar and not quite getting the same results as last year, currently more than a Pro Tour win out of the Matchplay spots and is the highest ranked player not provisionally qualified for the worlds at this still early stage (I say that, but after this weekend we're as close as damnit to half way in the Euro Tour and a third of the way through the Pro Tour, so probably around 45% of the possible money will be known by now?). Dragt came through the qualifier beating Klaasen and Dekker, and will be looking to repeat his final day run from his previous appearance. A bit limited on data but it feels like Lukeman should be around a 2-1 favourite, while against Dave he'd be a bit more of an underdog than that, getting close to but not quite up to 30% chances.

Gilding v White/Monk - Misleading one to analyse this. Ian's doing a decent enough job of rebuilding so far, while Arron has been very hit and miss on his return to the tour. The projection gives this pretty much even, but Monk has lost nearly 60% of his legs played and is scoring a huge 7 points less per turn in those compared to Ian's four and a bit. Would chuck that projection out and instead pick 60%, maybe slightly more, for Ian out of the sky. White is actually only projecting as a small (45%) underdog against Gilding, so maybe chances for Diamond to get some solid points on the board this weekend.

Cross v Barry/Kantele - Marko's back on the Euro Tour again, capitalising on a pretty decent year so far on the SDC, but he's looking like a fair underdog in this one against Keane, a bit under the radar but still pretty dangerous, looks about a 70-75% chance for Barry. Cross would probably win a second round matchup with the young Irishman ever so slightly more than two times out of three.

Noppert v Razma/O'Shea - Important game for both, Madars is not completely out of the Matchplay race but could definitely do with a result here to help, while John is nowhere near making the worlds which he's probably going to need to do to retain his card. Appears genuinely too close to call, only seeing John as a favourite by a few percentage points, not even 55/45. Should be a simple enough job for Danny in round two, on home soil he's clearly the better player, has a much tighter game, seeing just over 70% in the raw predictions but could easily see me bumping this up to nearer 75%.

Cullen v Bunting/Smith-Neale - Stephen can't be too displeased with this draw, Adam doing merely OK on the circuit so far, data is limited with ASN having only won just over 50 legs in the database, but it's showing Bunting as having just over a two in three chance, which I feel might be an underestimate. A second round tie against Joe should be played at a nice pace, and one that ought to be very close - I've got Bunting as a favourite, that's just how well he's playing, but only just.

Heta v Beaton/Huybrechts - Good first round tie this, Steve's been playing the best he's done for a while over the last six months or there abouts, while Kim's back amongst the winners having picked up a Pro Tour this season. The statistics give this as even, can't separate the two. Heta is still playing at a very high level and should win a second round tie against either roughly right in the middle of two out of three and three out of four, he's got a big edge against either opponent.

Schindler v Anderson/Benecky - Gary's back! Not really the matchup the young Czech would have wanted, scoring nearer to 80 than 85 on the first DT weekend (wonder if, like Gawlas, they're going to think about making a mad dash for the second weekend if they go out) isn't really going to cut it against Gary, I have no data on Benecky but this ought to be silly to one sort of prices, while Gary's game is still good enough that he'd roll into a game with Martin as closer to a 65% than 60% favourite.

Aspinall v Pietreczko/Gurney - Ricardo's looking for back to back Saturday's on the Euro Tour after a win last week, and he's surprisingly close to creeping into the Matchplay spots, a first round win would put him less than a grand away. Tough opponent in Gurney, who's also coming off a good weekend, and Daryl does project as a small favourite, 55/45 or there abouts. Nathan's a step up in class again, but not by a massive amount - Aspinall would be favoured against Daryl, but it's only 60/40.

Clayton v Soutar/van Peer - Berry's going to pass on the Denmark Open having been the second player through the quali, winning against Landman after a moderately easy run to the final, we know he's playing well and is in the discussion as to who's the best non-card holder right now, but Alan's not bad at all and currently rates to me as a 60% favourite. Clayton's off the back of a confidence boosting win last weekend, and is at a high enough level that while Alan is getting close to a one win in three projection, it's not quite there, and we ought to see Jonny start a possible back to back run in what definitely appears a softer half of the draw.

Smith v Williams/Killington - Jim is here and will be looking to try to get back up towards the Matchplay spots, a game against George not being a bad draw for him at all. Killington's had flashes of quality but it's not been sustained and it's been a while since we've seen it, Jim should win a little more than two times in three. Michael is going to be a real tough task though, but Williams is certainly very live - 60% to 65% is where I'd set the line.

Searle v van Barneveld/van den Bergh - What a first round tie, players need no introduction, projections give it as a coinflip, just sit back and enjoy what ought to be maybe the first round tie of the year. Ryan is certainly not a bad seed for either to run into, I wouldn't put either first round player as much as 55% against him, but they're definitely favoured, weird spot where the seed is a dog whoever he's facing. Not sure I've seen that before. Still very close, will be a great game whatever.

van Gerwen v van Veen/Clemens - Another enjoyable section, Gian has caught many people's eyes this season, as well as the back end of the previous year, and is looking in a good spot to make the worlds so far, he'll face Clemens, who despite some decent play and a greater set of experience in big games is actually looking like the underdog here, I'd stick GvV right in the middle of 55% and 60% of win possibilities. van Gerwen would obviously be a really tough task for either, but I'm seeing Gian with slightly more than one in three chances, so it's not going to be a walk in the park for Michael on Saturday evening.

Wright v Boulton/Ratajski - Andy continues a good run as he looks to rebuild at Challenge Tour level, and runs into a tricky opponent in the recent Pro Tour winner. Ratajski is still a very high level player, but even I was a bit surprised to see Krzysztof project at 70%, I thought Boulton was a bit closer than that. Peter's scrambling for form, he can take heart in having come through some big games against Ratajski before, but I'm only seeing just over 60% year long for Wright - if I narrowed to this year, Ratajski would be favoured.

Humphries v Smith/Wattimena - The European champion begins his campaign against a Pro Tour qualifier on home soil, Jermaine's continuing to look competent enough after a bit of a down spell, but Ross is playing his best game as well and actually looks like just over a 70% shot, which surprised me slightly but I did think he would be favoured solidly enough. Assuming it's Ross that comes through, it's not at all unlikely that he's able to turn over Humphries, Luke's winning chances only barely creeping over 55% after what's been an indifferent start to 2023.

van Duijvenbode v Slevin/Hausotter - I know nothing about Marcel, other than that he came through the associate qualifier beating Stefan Bellmont and then three non-descript Germans, not averaging above 85 in any of the four games and dropping under 80 twice, which coupled with possible big stage nerves should make this pretty comfortable for Dylan, who's already had one very good run, lots of single match flashes and an overall game that very much belongs at the Pro Tour level. Against Dirk in the Netherlands though, he's kind of fucked, 80/20 is what I'm seeing. That's a big task.

Back later with actual tips.

Sunday 23 April 2023

Austria last 16

Pretty chalky day two, looks like we only lost four seeds, Schindler going out to Whitlock wasn't a shocker (although the manner in which he did somewhat was, similar with Humphries to Gurney), Wright continuing poor form also wasn't surprising, then we have Mickey Mansell. Nice job. Two quick things before we get into the last sixteen - if anyone wants to realise why Wikipedia is a useless resource, you only need to look at the enormous vandalism which has been done to all the darts pages of late. Second, good luck to Adie in the forthcoming months after he's announced he's taking a break from the pro game. As he stated in his announcement, it is a huge amount of time that he's been playing, around twenty years, and he's definitely at a low point in terms of results. He'll know what's right for him, hopefully he can come back in the near future and be refreshed and back up near to his best.

Gurney/Gilding - Appears pretty close. Andrew's playing the better stuff, but it's not by a great deal - would call this slightly closer to 55% than a 60% game for Gilding. The market generally agrees with this assessment.

Aspinall/Noppert - Another really tight one, if anything closer than the one above, Nathan is in my eyes the underdog, but has more than 45% chances. The market, perhaps swayed by his recent Premier League night win, actually has Nathan ahead, but with us only able to get 11/10 on Noppert, it's not quite enough edge to take the Dutchman.

Heta/Clayton - Probably the highest quality game of the three, and it's even tighter than the one above. I've got Damon slightly ahead, but we're not even talking 52/48. 6/5 is kind of the same line as the above one - it's not bad, but we don't quite have the edge to properly recommend.

van Duijvenbode/Cullen - Is Dirk the best player in this half? Looks like it to me. Dirk is a big favourite here, 65% chances for me. We can get 8/13, which is implying 62%, so it's the same again as the above - it's not bad, but there's not the edge. If anything, the edge is less than the previous two games.

Mansell/Rock - Doesn't get any easier for Mickey here, he's not drawing completely dead, but has under a 30% shot as I see it. Rock is 1/3 which offers zero value as Mansell should win more than one in four, we're not offered anything like a good price with the vig on the underdog though so it's a clear no bet.

Smith/Suljovic - Mensur is going to need to step up his game here, he got a lopsided win against Wright but did not play well at all to get it, and has pretty much spot on a one in four chance of pulling off the victory. 11/4 is more or less a standard line for this probability, no interest here.

van Gerwen/Whitlock - Simon meanwhile wasn't bad in his huge comeback yesterday, pretty similar stats to what van Gerwen had against Hendo. He's not out of this one by any stretch, he's not got one in three, but he's over 30% to nick this one - the price we can get on BetVictor is just about enough for me to go with a small flyer, 0.1u Whitlock 10/3, Simon does like beating van Gerwen after all. 3/1 is probably just about OK, but nothing shorter than that.

Cross/Searle - Final game and we've got another one that's a bit tough to call, I'm leaning the former world champion but only 55/45 or something like that. Maybe there's something not quite right after the Vandenbogaerde incident, but the performance yesterday was fine. Market is generally floating around 5/4 Searle which appears spot on, so nothing here.

Just the one bet, a few others to consider if you want to push whatever edges you can get. Will be watching football later so won't be posting anything before the quarters, but with just the one tip today and nothing yesterday, it seems safe to say there's no fear of missing out in the rest of the event.

Saturday 22 April 2023

Austria round 2

Going to have to be a fast and furious update, as I'm short of time before going to a match today:

Gilding/Campbell - Pretty solid performance from Matt yesterday to edge out White in a decider, and now he's not got a bad opponent. Maybe slightly undervalued, I've got Campbell at just over 40%, so 13/8 is not a bad play, albeit not quite the edge to recommend. If we know he's going to play like yesterday then I might consider a small punt.

Rock/Ratajski - Krzysztof got through competently enough yesterday against Roelofs who didn't offer too much back, and ought not to be a massive dog here, Rock only having just over 60% chances. Market has it slightly tighter but I'm not going to push one or two percent.

Chisnall/Mansell - Mickey got a fairly easy path against a qualifier but didn't look too bad, huge improvement in opponent though. Chizzy ought to be approaching a 1/3 favourite, and he's actually even shorter than that, but with not even 3/1 available on Mansell I can't consider an underdog shot.

Heta/Woodhouse - Luke also got a qualifier and didn't have much trouble, Damon is going to be a tough opponent but Woodhouse isn't without chances, call it somewhere in the middle of 35% and 40%. 23/10 is I think really close to a play, but an unconvincing average is just about enough to put me off, if he'd cruised 6-1 averaging over 90 towards 95 I'd be yeah, sure, but dropping three legs with a low 80? Maybe not.

Cross/Kuivenhoven - Maik needed all eleven legs in a tight clash with Brooks. Rob is different gravy and is nearer 75% to win than 70%. 10/3 on Kuivenhoven is the value but it's not enough value to take a stab.

Cullen/Kenny - Nick got us our first win yesterday (solid enough day overall by the way with just Menzies missing lots of doubles preventing the sweep), and now he'll face Cullen, who is seemingly not that big a favourite in projections - not even 60%! We're still accumulating data on Kenny though, so I'll ignore what looks like a decent flyer at 3/1, there is a bit of a big consistency issue in the stats and it's not even 100 legs worth of data.

Aspinall/Schnier - Hannes took advantage of a huge collapse by de Zwaan, but will be an even bigger dog against Nathan here. 8/1 feels about right.

Clayton/Klaasen - This ought to be fun, Jelle's doing decent work this season off the PDC stage so let's see where he stands in relation to a top talent. I'm seeing Jonny about a 2/7 favourite, market basically agrees.

Noppert/Dobey - High quality game for round two, Dobey looked very strong against a decent enough qualifier who'll take some positives from the game. Appears close, Danny has the small advantage, 11/10 would ordinarily be a tiny punt but with Chris looking competent on day one it's just enough to not bet.

van Duijvenbode/Meikle - Ryan shook off a little bit of dodgy form to dispatch Rowby but hits an elite talent in Dirk here, probably has just under a 30% shot so 10/3 isn't really tempting enough.

Searle/van Barneveld - Raymond won against Brendan Dolan despite meh performances, and now gets Searle who isn't the worst opponent he could face. Barney actually projects as a tiny favourite in my data despite Ryan having overall better scoring given RvB is doing a bit more in winning legs, I thought this might be a potential play but Barney is barely longer than evens, so no.

Wright/Suljovic - Mensur got through a turgid affair with Ricky Evans, and now comes up against a so-so Wright. Suljovic only projects at 26%, which is more or less exactly where the line is at 14/5. We can give some extra points given Peter's lack of form and home field advantage, but not enough to play.

Humphries/Gurney - Daryl came through against late sub Bunting, despite averaging five points less. Luke will be looking for a decent run here, and ought to get that around two times out of three. Market is right on that point.

Smith/Pietreczko - Ricardo gave us our only loss yesterday, taking advantage of low double percentage from Menzies, and now comes up against the world champion fresh off a Euro Tour title. 7/2 seems ever so slightly harsh, I've got Pikachu at the right side of 25% - but not by much.

van Gerwen/Henderson - Hendo got through against Slevin, average looked alright, he's coming up against a slightly better opponent here though in MvG. The line seems slightly short for MvG, I'd say John, who is leading the Challenge Tour, has just under 25% chances - so some places offering lines of just short of 5/1 is kind of tempting.

Schindler/Whitlock - Simon got through a bit of a slugfest with Kim Huybrechts, and now takes on Schindler, looking to consolidate a seeding position. Whitlock appears pretty live here, a touch over 40% chances, but if anything the market has it even closer with the Aussie best priced at 5/4. There isn't quite the edge to take Martin though.

So no bets. Back tomorrow with the last sixteen.

Thursday 20 April 2023

Austria day 1

I'm checking oddschecker right now, and it looks like they have comparisons for everything except the games with the home nations qualifiers in, which seems fine, let's go through quickly:

Kenny/Razma - This feels like it should be closer than it is, Madars is up there in the rankings but I'm not sure why, while Nick's not had some bad results, there's a fair bit of inconsistency in his sample but I'm getting the feeling he is playing the better darts right now, so I'm going to take a cautious stab, 0.1u Kenny 13/10, if we had more data I would be more aggressive and do not hate if you want to go that way.

Zukovs/Mansell - No idea about this guy. Seemingly Latvian who came through the Nordic/Baltic qualifier, don't see a great deal special about what he can do, not really interested.

Roelofs/Ratajski - Owen seems heavily outclassed here, and that's before Krzysztof won an event. Market concurs.

Menzies/Pietreczko - This is an interesting one between two players I could see betting on in any other matchup, Cameron ought to be a moderate favourite but isn't, seems fairly easy 0.25u evs Menzies on Coralbrokes with someone approaching 60% winning chances.

Haider/Woodhouse - First of the qualifiers from this afternoon. Haider's done nothing to inspire confidence, but with the only book I'm looking at for the rando games showing Luke at shorter than 1/3, I'm passing, Marcus appears to be not completely awful looking at the averages so may give some resistance.

Kuivenhoven/Brooks - Finding it pretty hard to call a winner here. Maik seems slightly better. Bookies can't separate them, when I say Kuivenhoven is better it's by a percent or two, so let's move on.

de Zwaan/Schnier - Second game I'm basically ignoring, Hannes seems basically the same, not bad but not good and Jeffrey should roll often enough that we can't consider a bet.

Henderson/Slevin - Old vs new, appears close in the market, long data gives Hendo a moderate edge, with this being I think Dylan's first Euro Tour event I'm fine to pass, which I probably would have done anyway regardless.

Campbell/White - Did we see this before recently? Feels like we did. Ian's better but not by much. Market concurs. Next.

O'Connor/Klaasen - Willie's been a bit anonymous for a while, Jelle seems to have been doing a bit more despite it being all off the tour. We've got more than enough on Jelle to get a decent read, and it seems to be agreeing with the market opinion that Willie should win this nearly two times out of three.

Huybrechts/Whitlock - Two players who are below where they think they should be, but who have had good tour wins early this season, appears hard to separate but I'm thinking Simon is maybe a touch better, which is perhaps surprising given the market, which is basically 10/11 the pair. I'm going to take a small shot, 0.1u Whitlock 10/11, it's marginal hence small, but I think he's a bit better than a pure flip.

Dolan/van Barneveld - Think both have tailed off a tad in the last few months, although Brendan had a decent floor run recently, Barney's better but at a best price of 4/6 there's not enough edge.

Meikle/Rodriguez - Ryan's not looked fantastic in a couple of recent events, so if there's some unnoticed off oche thing here this may look daft, but he's much better than Rowby. 0.25u Meikle evs

Gurney/Bunting - Don't know why Jim Williams keeps withdrawing. Seems silly, he could easily make the Matchplay. Stephen's better, not by a huge amount, market is shading him slightly, easy move on.

Sedlak/Dobey - Yeah, the qualifier is not going to trouble Chris. 1/8 is a bit lol but not ridiculous.

Evans/Suljovic - Finish with the big Austrian hope! Not talked about Mensur much of late, but he appears to have deteriorated to a point where this is a flip, and maybe Ricky has the heavy side of the coin. 13/10 isn't really enough for me to say go with it, but I would not be lumping on Mensur. Not at all.

That's it, back tomorrow evening.

Wednesday 19 April 2023

Real brief update

A bit later than I wanted, but I've got 10-15 minutes to quickly whack something out - Smith got the job finished in Munich a bit ago, then over the last weekend we've had a bunch of stuff happen - some minor WDF events which I won't go into, some complete randoms got the cake in the Asian Tour (although two finals for Ilagan solidified his spot at the top of the charts), Kantele continued a strong start in the SDC and got a third win for the season, leaving him in a very strong position to make the worlds, while in the Pro Tour, Ratajski got a very important win for multiple reasons over surprise finalist Chris Landman, with Dirk getting a third title of the season. Are there five better players in the world right now than van Duijvenbode? I don't think so. As we warm up for b4b Euro Tours across four countries, this leaves us with the updated FRH rankings looking like so:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall (UP 1)
7 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)
8 Dimitri van den Bergh
9 Danny Noppert
10 Dirk van Duijvenbode
11 Jonny Clayton
12 Joe Cullen (UP 1)
13 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)
14 Dave Chisnall
15 Damon Heta
16 Ryan Searle
17 Gabriel Clemens
18 Andrew Gilding
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

I'll be back tomorrow evening with first round thoughts regarding Austria.

Monday 10 April 2023

Munich last 16

Not expecting any value today with the only value pick we made yesterday going out, but let's see:

Smith/Price - Nope, Price seems a clear 60/40 projection, maybe a bit higher with current form, Smith's one of the few players who could legitimately hang with him, but the odds look right.

Barry/van Peer - Looks like Keane has a slight edge to me. The market agrees. Big shot for both but likely one and done given the draw.

van Duijvenbode/Noppert - Seems like we've seen this one quite a bit, Dirk's better but not by a huge amount, but 13/10 is not enough on Danny to make us look at this one for more than a second. Line seems fine to me.

Heta/Dobey - Heta's actually slightly odds against, which confuses me as I see him as a near 60/40 play. Will take the Coralbrokes price, 0.25u Heta 21/20, evens also seems fine.

Aspinall/Williams - This one also seems really close, the market isn't really buying it. We're going to lay Nathan again, 0.25u Williams 7/4 on 365, I've got him above 45% so we've easily got enough edge on this one.

Chisnall/Gilding - Chizzy's still really good, and is maybe slightly undervalued given Andrew's major win. I've got him at 63%, 8/11 isn't quite enough, but it's pretty close to thinking about.

Evans/Cullen - Lee's cropped up as an underdog shot a few times, and got the easy win over Wright yesterday, Cullen is arguably just as strong a test if not more on current form, 12/5 is a little bit of a short price. I've got him as only just over one in three, certainly not a safe game for Joe but we can't take the shot here.

Humphries/de Sousa - Luke looked really good on a return to action yesterday, and appears like slightly more than a 60/40 favourite in my projections. Generally seems like the market has it more one sided, but nowhere near enough where we can consider taking de Sousa here.

So we do actually get two bets on the continually underrated Heta and Williams, against the possibly overrated Premier League pair. Just need one to hit to break even, let's see how it goes. Will not be back before the tournament is done.

Sunday 9 April 2023

Munich day 2

Bit of a rough day with our main plays all being gruelling matches, we got the longer shot one at least, Martinez flyer wasn't close, it needed both him to show up and Dobey to be a bit off, neither of which happened, so we're dropping about a quarter of a unit on yesterday, maybe a touch more, would need to check. Round two into action, I'm just going to say bets or not and just expand when I'm making a play or not in a close decision:

Rock/van Peer - no bet
Chisnall/Horvat - no bet
van Duijvenbode/Rydz - no bet
Cross/Barry - no bet
Clayton/Gilding - tiny value on Gilding, but no bet
Cullen/Smith - no bet
Aspinall/Menzies - 0.1u Menzies 12/5, might have gone more but he really wasn't convincing yesterday, still definite value with long data showing over 40% chances
de Sousa/Beaton - no bet
van den Bergh/Dobey - no bet
Noppert/Maendl-Lawrance - no bet
Smith/Warner - no bet
Price/van Barneveld - no bet
Heta/Clemens - if Heta was a tick better than 4/6 I'd probably go, I see this as 65/35, with Clemens maybe being underrated in the dataset this might be a wise pass
Wright/Evans - thought this might have been a sneaky spot to shove an Evans underdog flyer in given Wright's form, but it isn't
Schindler/Williams - no bet
Humphries/de Zwaan - thought maybe we could have snuck a de Zwaan bet in with him maybe picking up form and Luke maybe being a bit rusty, but barely getting more than 2/1 isn't tempting

That's the lot, probably back later this evening for round three.

Saturday 8 April 2023

Munich evening session

Williams/van der Voort - Two established players here, one in the ascendancy against one possibly on a bit of a decline, as such it appears to me to be very much in Jim's favour, with Vincent only having a one in three chance. We can't get better than 8/15 on Jim, which appears to be pretty much a break even bet. No thanks, I want edge.

Gurney/Menzies - Another one that might be quite tight with Cameron playing fairly decent stuff of late, in fact he actually projects as a marginal favourite. Market is liking Gurney a lot more, so I think we have a play here, 0.25u Menzies 6/4 on Ladbrokes, I wouldn't go much shorter than that and still play, 11/8 I think is fine, 5/4 not so.

Whitlock/Beaton - A fine matchup between veterans who are not going away and continuing to produce high level stuff, albeit maybe not so frequently as previously. This should be a very good watch, although I think Simon's a touch better, call it 60/40. Market's showing generally 8/13, 4/7 sort of lines so no advantage here.

Smith/Hempel - Florian's getting a lot of shots at this level through his ranking, and he's run into a tough draw against major winner Smith, who I'm seeing as an overwhelming favourite, Hempel barely having a one in four chance to advance to Sunday. The market has it as even more one sided, which does surprise me a touch, with the vig however there certainly isn't the chance to take Hempel here.

Owen/Maendl-Lawrance - Liam got a win but how good is he really? I recall a lot of the legs he did win not being overly impressive, so I would think Robert will like his chances to move on to tomorrow here. We can get slightly better than 1/2, which I think is worth a nibble, 0.25u Owen 8/15 on Betfair, checking back, indeed eight of Liam's eleven legs won in my database were longer than fifteen darts, four of those being seven visit kills or worse. Owen should be too solid here.

White/van Barneveld - Another matchup between hugely experienced players, Raymond looking to build on his Grand Slam run and consolidate his ranking, White looking to rebuild and not be in a position where his card is at risk. Barney has the edge, but not by a great deal, split the difference between 55% and 60% I think. Market tends to agree, maybe favouring Barney a little bit more, not enough value on Ian to consider anything though.

Dobey/Martinez - Not seen Chris do a huge amount so far this year after getting his TV win, while Tony pops up now and again and surprises us with a good run or win, so is capable of pulling an upset - something which I think he might do reasonably often, a bit more than one third of the time. I'd have guessed less, and the market definitely thinks less, so we'll take a flyer here, 0.1u Martinez 9/2

Clemens/Lukasiak - Final game is a tough one to read as I know next to nothing about Oskar, but a line similar to the one in the last match looks about right. Seemingly averaging 83 on the Nordic tour isn't brilliant and shouldn't be anything Clemens has problems dealing with.

Back probably tomorrow morning with round two thoughts.

Munich afternoon session

Going to get this one out pretty quickly and then come back with the evening session, bit short on time so splitting into two posts with this one being short and sweet. No oddschecker so just looking at 365/Betfair/Ladbrokes as only sources.

van Dongen/van Peer - Pretty decent data on both and it appears very hard to split them. Market is favouring Berry, which is understandable, 11/8 isn't a price on van Dongen that I'm really enamoured with. Would probably take 13/8.

Soutar/Evans - Seems moderately close but still Alan ought to be favoured around 60/40. We can get a little bit longer than Lee in some places, and it worked last week, 2/1 on 365 isn't quite enough to officially recommend but I don't hate it.

Campbell/Rydz - Appears fairly close again. Callan has an edge, but not by much, closer to 55% than 50%. Market has it slightly more but with vig there's no advantage in taking Matt in this one.

Vandenbogaerde/Warner - Got kind of limited stats on Adam, and they somewhat hint that he's playing better than his winning legs show, so a bit hard to judge. Everyone's pricing Mario at 2/5, the master computer puts him at 80%, but I think that's an overestimate due to the aforementioned consistency stats from Warner. That said, it is a debut... Not really enough to consider a bet, if I did it would be on the Belgian.

Boulton/Barry - Appears another tight duel. I've got Boulton as favoured ever so slightly, kind of the same range as the Rydz match. We can get slightly odds against, 11/10 is the best I can see though. If I could get 11/8 I'd probably start firing.

Waites/Horvat - Our data on Dragutin is really small and not particularly reliable, all depends which one turns up. Scott isn't priced particularly short though, and I kind of think the price is worth the play - 0.25u Waites 8/13, think that even if Horvat turns up Scott is too good often enough.

Dolan/de Zwaan - No issues with data sizes here, data is only favouring Brendan 55/45, and Jeffrey does appear to be improving after having to regain his card in January, so this ought to be really tight. Market is offering nothing, Brendan's typically 4/5, Jeffrey evens, nothing to see here.

Gilding/Kanik - Did have quite a lot of data on Tytus, but not so much this year, a long time since we've seen him. I could use someone that I think is fairly similar (Kciuk and Szaganski seem more or less interchangeable), but I won't. 1/4 on Gilding might be a bit short, Laddies have it a bit closer, but I'm really not interested in taking Kanik against Gilding at this point in time.

Monday 3 April 2023

Post-Riesa FRH rankings

Damn, didn't think de Decker would get that close to Price. Nobody else did, Gerwyn seems clearly the best player in the world right now. Updated FRH rankings anyway:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Rob Cross
7 Nathan Aspinall
8 Dimitri van den Bergh
9 Danny Noppert
10 Dirk van Duijvenbode
11 Jonny Clayton
12 Ross Smith
13 Joe Cullen
14 Dave Chisnall
15 Damon Heta (UP 1)
16 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
17 Gabriel Clemens
18 Andrew Gilding
19 Jose de Sousa (UP 1)
20 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)

Only real movements are as a result of Searle and Dobey not playing/qualifying for this one, and the places could easily be nicked back. Lower down, Schindler's semi final gets him up to #23, de Decker has reached the top 45, while Niko Springer's nice run sees him into the top 150.

We've got a little bit more than a week between events now as this upcoming one is the Easter one running Saturday-Monday. Going to be interesting to see Maendl-Lawrence again, van Peer back in a PDC event, Adam Warner in there as well as a rare appearance for van Dongen. Assuming Humphries is better, the seedings give us a tasty Price/Smith last sixteen. Meanwhile, Luke Littler continued his tear up of the Development Tour with a second title, putting him in a very commanding position right now, nearly four grand ahead of his nearest challenger and nearly four and a half ahead of the first player who doesn't have a tour card. Obviously it's easy in retrospect to say we saw this coming, but we saw this coming.

Back Friday evening I think.

Sunday 2 April 2023

No bets on last sixteen

Obviously pretty chuffed to have the de Decker bet come in, but despite me saying that I'll go with him basically every game going forward on Twitter, I just can't justify taking the odds against someone in such red hot form as Price is. At 3/1 (think one or two fringe places have a tick longer), I'd probably be needing the long data to be showing 40% to compensate, and I don't think we get there.

Not seeing anything else. Maybe de Sousa is a bit long, but against MvG and with not being tested at all in round two, in the absence of knowing the projections I'm happy enough to ignore that one as well. If anything else looks off, it's not by anywhere near enough to consider. As such, don't expect me back before this evening with new FRH rankings.

Saturday 1 April 2023

Riesa round two

That was one palaver to get the Hempel v Wilson stats as sportradar didn't bother with the game, but fortunately found someone who restreamed enough of the evening session to get what I needed this morning so all is good in the end.

As mentioned prior there isn't going to be much here, just the actual plays, and we're only taking one player and it's a double down from a successful punt on what was a good day one with 0.1u de Decker 10/3, obviously against someone like Smith this can go horribly wrong in a hurry, but Mike is clearly in our circle of betting trust right now, and with a price indicating that he has less than a 25% shot and us thinking he has, at a minimum, 10% higher than that, we have to take the shot.

Not much else was close, if you look at a lot of the projected lines in the previous post they're fairly close to what oddschecker is listing, I was thinking about another flier on Campbell but I'd really need more than 5/1 to make the risk/reward worth it, and additionally in the afternoon session, Heta and de Sousa look marginally undervalued, but again not enough to go with an official play.

If I'm back in the morning it'll probably feature no bets, enough is close enough today that I anticipate bookies not getting out of line tomorrow, if Mike wins then I guess we'll end up letting it ride another time, but if we're only seeing one bet and three maybes then if the reason for the bet goes out, I can't see there being much there at all.