Saturday 29 April 2023

Leeuwarden day 2

Bit of a rough day yesterday, going three out of three on losing bets - van Veen against Clemens going all the way but Razma and van den Bergh were unplayable, looking at someone else's stats we ran into the number 1, 2 and 6 players of the day. Can't do much about that. Still, at least we're not Gary Anderson, jesus. Bit of a weird day in that there were a lot of one sided results, let's see what happens today.


0.25u Clayton 2/5 vs van Peer - Only Hills have this line but it's safe enough to play, the van Peer hype is maybe a little bit too silly in this spot as I have Jonny at nearer 80% than 75%, I wouldn't go any shorter than that though.
0.1u Williams 11/4 vs Smith - We really like Jim's game and it's undervalued significantly, getting approaching 3/1 when he's closer to having 40% chances than 35% is a great line, I'm only going small because of the level of opponent he's facing but this really isn't a just about one in four win game.
0.25u Wright 4/5 vs Ratajski - I'm kind of surprised to see the line this close, but not surprised to see it where it is. This is flying in the face of form, but Ratajski was merely good rather than spectacular yesterday and Wright did beat MvG the other day, so maybe something's turning around. I've got Peter at 61% so the edge is here I think.
0.25u van Duijvenbode 4/11 vs Slevin - Another Hills special, same thing with Clayton really, this is implying less than a 75% chance when Dirk is really over 80%. Pretty easy play.

Close calls:

Bunting > Cullen - If you have money on whatever a Betway is, that line seems like it's a small play, but otherwise there's not quite enough with most places giving Bunting 11/10 and the odd 6/5. I'd have him as the 10/11 favourite on a vig free line, it's certainly close and Stephen did play well.
Schindler > Benecky - Roman didn't really need to do much to beat Anderson yesterday in a very weird performance, we're not getting 1/7 sorts of lines, but 2/9 seems maybe to be a little bit of value as I really don't see Martin messing this one up.
Gurney > Aspinall - On the face of the projection alone it should be no chance, as we only get Daryl at 41% and he's 6/4, but he looked really impressive yesterday with just the one bad leg where both scored indifferently and Pietreczko missed three clear to close the leg off.
Clemens > van Gerwen - Was a really impressive game from Gabriel against a tough opponent and our projections might undervalue him slightly given his injury issues last year, but we can only get 11/4 and the projection only gives just a fraction of a percent under 30% so we need more before we can pull out the wallet.

No chances:

Rock/Hall - Market may be ever so slightly underestimating Josh here but it's only to extent where the vig makes it Josh that's the neutral play, and Graham the slightly bad one. With Hall looking decent yesterday it's fine.
Chisnall/Lukeman - If anything this one is even worse, the projection is right down the middle.
Gilding/White - Seems easily close enough to where the line at, maybe White is undervalued by a percentage point or two but we're not even at the stage where it's a close call.
Cross/Barry - Fantastic start to the session for value this, Cross line seems absolutely perfect, Barry a bad bet ever so slightly.
Noppert/Razma - Projections are giving Danny a little bit more of a chance than what the line suggests, but it's only by a couple of percent and with Madars looking really good yesterday, it's easily enough to keep us in the no chance section.
Heta/Beaton - Market appears to be correctly assessing that Heta is still really good, but also calling Beaton right in that he's resurgent with another good win yesterday.
Searle/van den Bergh - We thought that Ryan would be a small dog here in the pre tournament preview, and that's exactly what he is, Dimi at 55% with a 4/5 line is spot on.
Humphries/Smith - Maybe Luke's undervalued by a percentage point or two, but given relative recent form I don't think it's too far off to think about.

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