Sunday 30 April 2023

Leeuwarden last 16

Little bit of a rough day two. Hurts to see Clayton blow a position like that, but we'll happily trade that for Wright getting the win against Ratajski when he needed snookers. Dirk did the job, while Smith gave Williams a bit too much to do, although with three clear at double for 5-5, who knows what might have happened on another day. Big props to a couple of people playing outside of the Netherlands - Gian van Veen went straight across to the Development Tour overnight and won the first one, so great dedication there, and Andy Baetens continues to show why I thought he would win a card, he didn't but seems to be getting all the cake in the WDF system - and one we'll hope to see next weekend on the Euro Tour who could do some damage.

Let's quickly run through today in the same format as yesterday, I think it works well and makes the pertinent points clearer, no oddschecker so just comparing 365, Betfair, Hills and Laddies.


0.1u Schindler 3/1 vs van Gerwen - Hills have this price, but I think 11/4 or there abouts is more than fine. Martin's really good, and I have him at 38% - easily more than enough for a small flier. MvG looked solid yesterday in despatching Clemens while Schindler didn't really need to get out of second gear to put aside Roman Benecky, so he'll need to be sharp early, but we go with this edge every time.
0.1u Wright 13/8 vs Smith - Over year long stats I've got this as Smith barely ahead, 51/49. Clearly Wright is not playing as well of late, and he did suffer a bad reverse against the same opponent on Thursday, but this feels like a free hit situation given the nature of the win against Ratajski. I would go larger, but Smith's win yesterday looked really good which coupled with what I've just mentioned, makes me temper expectations hugely.
0.25u Heta 4/7 vs van Peer - Berry dodged some bullets yesterday but got the job done, with a pretty good performance it has to be said. Heta was just steady against Beaton, albeit with a couple of legs off once he had the fifth leg on the board, which he'd like to avoid really. Hills have this line, but anywhere up to 1/2 looks good - I've got Damon at 77%, so even 1/2 offers a very solid 10% edge.


Noppert > Aspinall - This is extremely close. We can get 11/10, which is implying he's a slight underdog. I see Danny at 53%, which is basically 10/11, so the other way around. Add in Danny being at home, and it's even more tempting. Add in Aspinall not doing anything against Gurney which was spectacular, and we can go even closer, but at the same time Noppert was just alright against Razma, who couldn't sustain his form from Friday. I don't mind this play but won't officially recommend it - if you see on sportradar that Noppert has won the bull and the market still gives odds against, I think that's all the edge you need.

How about no's:

Barry/Searle - Got this one at 36% for Keane, who did play a great game yesterday (as did Searle in fairness). The lines are close enough, we can get up to 7/4 on the Irishman which looks about break even, clearly the vig makes a play on Ryan impossible not being able to breach 1/2.
Chisnall/Rock - No bookies can separate the two, only Laddies have Rock ever so slightly favoured but that's all down to a slightly greedier vig structure. Chizzy played better yesterday and has actually moved fractionally ahead of Josh in year long scoring, translating to a 53% chance, but that's basically 10/11 and all we can get.
van Duijvenbode/Bunting - Maybe regretting not taking a small stab on Stephen yesterday, but it wasn't a great win and he could easily have lost that. Similar for Dirk, merely OK against Slevin and needed a deciding leg break, oof. I've got 62% Dirk, generally seeing 8/13, 4/7 sort of lines which looks about right, Bunting clearly by implication is nowhere near a play.
Humphries/Gilding - Pretty clear no play. Vig is killing us on this one. I have Luke just shy of 60%, he seems generally 4/6 or 8/13, Andrew is no better than 5/4 so appears the worse play - although while both looked decent yesterday, Gilding looked extremely impressive. So maybe on the basis of yesterday, both bets are equally bad.

50/50 whether I get any tips up on the quarters. Will depend if I go for the Liverpool/Spurs game.

No comments:

Post a Comment