Saturday 22 April 2023

Austria round 2

Going to have to be a fast and furious update, as I'm short of time before going to a match today:

Gilding/Campbell - Pretty solid performance from Matt yesterday to edge out White in a decider, and now he's not got a bad opponent. Maybe slightly undervalued, I've got Campbell at just over 40%, so 13/8 is not a bad play, albeit not quite the edge to recommend. If we know he's going to play like yesterday then I might consider a small punt.

Rock/Ratajski - Krzysztof got through competently enough yesterday against Roelofs who didn't offer too much back, and ought not to be a massive dog here, Rock only having just over 60% chances. Market has it slightly tighter but I'm not going to push one or two percent.

Chisnall/Mansell - Mickey got a fairly easy path against a qualifier but didn't look too bad, huge improvement in opponent though. Chizzy ought to be approaching a 1/3 favourite, and he's actually even shorter than that, but with not even 3/1 available on Mansell I can't consider an underdog shot.

Heta/Woodhouse - Luke also got a qualifier and didn't have much trouble, Damon is going to be a tough opponent but Woodhouse isn't without chances, call it somewhere in the middle of 35% and 40%. 23/10 is I think really close to a play, but an unconvincing average is just about enough to put me off, if he'd cruised 6-1 averaging over 90 towards 95 I'd be yeah, sure, but dropping three legs with a low 80? Maybe not.

Cross/Kuivenhoven - Maik needed all eleven legs in a tight clash with Brooks. Rob is different gravy and is nearer 75% to win than 70%. 10/3 on Kuivenhoven is the value but it's not enough value to take a stab.

Cullen/Kenny - Nick got us our first win yesterday (solid enough day overall by the way with just Menzies missing lots of doubles preventing the sweep), and now he'll face Cullen, who is seemingly not that big a favourite in projections - not even 60%! We're still accumulating data on Kenny though, so I'll ignore what looks like a decent flyer at 3/1, there is a bit of a big consistency issue in the stats and it's not even 100 legs worth of data.

Aspinall/Schnier - Hannes took advantage of a huge collapse by de Zwaan, but will be an even bigger dog against Nathan here. 8/1 feels about right.

Clayton/Klaasen - This ought to be fun, Jelle's doing decent work this season off the PDC stage so let's see where he stands in relation to a top talent. I'm seeing Jonny about a 2/7 favourite, market basically agrees.

Noppert/Dobey - High quality game for round two, Dobey looked very strong against a decent enough qualifier who'll take some positives from the game. Appears close, Danny has the small advantage, 11/10 would ordinarily be a tiny punt but with Chris looking competent on day one it's just enough to not bet.

van Duijvenbode/Meikle - Ryan shook off a little bit of dodgy form to dispatch Rowby but hits an elite talent in Dirk here, probably has just under a 30% shot so 10/3 isn't really tempting enough.

Searle/van Barneveld - Raymond won against Brendan Dolan despite meh performances, and now gets Searle who isn't the worst opponent he could face. Barney actually projects as a tiny favourite in my data despite Ryan having overall better scoring given RvB is doing a bit more in winning legs, I thought this might be a potential play but Barney is barely longer than evens, so no.

Wright/Suljovic - Mensur got through a turgid affair with Ricky Evans, and now comes up against a so-so Wright. Suljovic only projects at 26%, which is more or less exactly where the line is at 14/5. We can give some extra points given Peter's lack of form and home field advantage, but not enough to play.

Humphries/Gurney - Daryl came through against late sub Bunting, despite averaging five points less. Luke will be looking for a decent run here, and ought to get that around two times out of three. Market is right on that point.

Smith/Pietreczko - Ricardo gave us our only loss yesterday, taking advantage of low double percentage from Menzies, and now comes up against the world champion fresh off a Euro Tour title. 7/2 seems ever so slightly harsh, I've got Pikachu at the right side of 25% - but not by much.

van Gerwen/Henderson - Hendo got through against Slevin, average looked alright, he's coming up against a slightly better opponent here though in MvG. The line seems slightly short for MvG, I'd say John, who is leading the Challenge Tour, has just under 25% chances - so some places offering lines of just short of 5/1 is kind of tempting.

Schindler/Whitlock - Simon got through a bit of a slugfest with Kim Huybrechts, and now takes on Schindler, looking to consolidate a seeding position. Whitlock appears pretty live here, a touch over 40% chances, but if anything the market has it even closer with the Aussie best priced at 5/4. There isn't quite the edge to take Martin though.

So no bets. Back tomorrow with the last sixteen.

No comments:

Post a Comment