Monday 29 May 2023

Post Sindelfingen update

Cross finally broke his Euro Tour duck, consigning Humphries to a fourth final defeat this year which is a pretty remarkable record, let's quickly see what that's done to the FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Rob Cross
7 Nathan Aspinall
8 Jonny Clayton
9 Dirk van Duijvenbode
10 Dimitri van den Bergh
11 Danny Noppert
12 Dave Chisnall
13 Joe Cullen
14 Damon Heta
15 Ross Smith
16 Andrew Gilding
17 Ryan Searle
18 Gabriel Clemens
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

Actually no changes. Cross is now right in between Humphries and Aspinall, rather than just ahead of Nathan, Heta and Smith are a lot closer to Cullen than they were, while outside Schindler and Rock are within a stone's throw of getting into the top 20. Dobey is less than 30 points behind de Sousa, while van Veen's run sees him just outside the top 70, and he'll probably be in there by the end of the week.

One thing I do want to look at is an issue of scheduling within the European Tour - I noticed that Dave Chisnall played second in the afternoon this weekend, whereas his opponent, Krzysztof Ratajski, played last in the evening. Does the additional rest make a difference? Hard to say, certainly didn't in this instance, but does it matter overall? Let's take a look at the nine events and see who's come out on top:

This seems somewhat counter intuitive - there's been 38 instances where we've had a day 2 afternoon session player go up against a day 2 evening session player in the last sixteen, and the evening session player has won 25 of them. You'd perhaps expect this, given that they typically load the evening session with the better players, and unless you get a surprise last 32 result (e.g. the Cross/Montgomery lineup from yesterday), they'd normally win more. However, to normalise for this I've projected all the games based on how the players are right now (trying to backdate the projections would be a nightmare), to try to work out how many games the evening session players should have won - and they should have won barely more than what'd be a 19-19 split! So maybe it's the case that playing in the evening is actually beneficial? I'm guessing there's just not enough sample to try to draw conclusions any one way or another, but maybe it's a case where having a longer break actually loses some momentum, and players are mentally gearing up for a four match Sunday. Who knows.

Sunday 28 May 2023

Sindelfingen last 16

Before we start on the Euro Tour, props to Gordon Mathers for binking the minor WDF event down under, and also to Xiaochen Zong for getting a brace of Asian Tours, with Nitin Kumar showing alright form as well. Bit of a bastard to fill in the database with some of the names from this weekend!

Only bet yesterday lost, Aspinall just too good on the day, if you were selective with the maybes and got on the likes of Razma, van Veen and Schindler you were doing alright though, eight games today, let's go through them:

Bet this:


Perhaps bet this:

van Veen > Rock - Hook this one up to my veins. Rock had no trouble with Brown yesterday, we thought that Brown could be in trouble if he repeated his game from Friday, if anything he was worse, while van Veen continues to look excellent (first leg excepted) in a narrow win over Noppert. This feels close - on twelve month form Rock's up at right in the middle of 60% and 65%, which is no big deal with van Veen at 6/4, 8/5 in spots. On 2023 data however, it's a coinflip. Feasible that it makes sense to be like this, a lot of the 2022 data on Gian will be from the secondary tours, so maybe the game is this close?

Don't bet this:

Chisnall/Ratajski - This is extremely similar to the van Veen against Rock situation. Ratajski is down just below 40% year long, but extremely close to 50/50 on this year's form. Difference is that we can't get better than 5/4, 13/10 sorts of prices on Krzysztof, which doesn't represent a substantial enough edge to consider it just on current form. Maybe also a fatigue factor, Dave was second on yesterday with, after a slow first couple of legs, a very convincing display against Rupprecht, while Ratajski was last on and went all the way against Dimitri. Probably will be no big deal, but the added rest for Dave can't help matters if we're looking to bet this one.

Smith/Gurney - Ross had no trouble with Steve Beaton, whitewashing the veteran, while Gurney didn't play quite at his best but got a good win over Dirk who maybe wasn't quite at his best. Don't see too much here, Gurney's 6/4 which indicates that Ross is a touch overvalued, but I only have Daryl at 40% year long with just a couple of percent improvement in the 2023 sample, so while it's not a negative EV play there isn't the confidence level to realistically say you should look at it.

Aspinall/Razma - Madars took advantage of a mediocre performance from Searle to run out a 6-1 winner, while Nathan only had the one questionable leg in an otherwise excellent display to give de Sousa no reasonable chance of winning. Market seems close enough to correct, Madars is floating in the high 20% range regardless of sample, so while Laddies are offering a touch more than 3/1 on your money, it's another no real solid edge spot and the relative performances of both aren't doing anything to change my mind and think more about this one, if anything they do the opposite.

Cross/Montgomery - Rob was a bit up and down yesterday, but as Kleermaker was more down than up, didn't have any issues and got home with the 6-2 win, while Ross got one of the bigger surprises of the Euro Tour year with a win over Clayton which looks opportunistic more than anything. Nothing really of interest here, Ross is at or around 4/1, Rob is 80% season long, Ross does improve in chances a bit on 2023 data but I'm finding it hard to believe that's anything other than a moderate sample size thing, and find it really hard to imagine him going with back to back huge upsets.

Heta/Cullen - Feels like we've had this match dozens of times over the last twelve months, we've bet Heta dozens of times over the last twelve months, and we've lost dozens of times over the last twelve months. We won't be doing that here, Damon's a marginal market favourite, he's only just over 55% year long and Joe pulls that back slightly on 2023 form, albeit Heta remains a tiny favourite. Not really interested in pushing 10/11 on Damon, who didn't need to do that much to beat Adam Smith-Neale, Joe looked a touch better against Payne but needed every leg to get home.

Humphries/van Barneveld - Luke got involved in a humdinger with Chris Dobey, nearly fucking up a 5-1 lead and it was only Dobey missing three clear at 24 for the match that let him sneak through, while Raymond had a surprisingly easy ride, not dropping a leg against an under par Andrew Gilding. No real interest in betting this one, Luke's at 58% year long, rising a couple of points in more recent data, so with Barney at around 6/4 at a best price, there's nothing here to get excited about.

Price/Schindler - Gerwyn eased through against Ricky Evans, there was one clown show leg but other than that Price didn't really put a foor wrong, while Schindler was allowed to get a decent lead against Clemens with a couple of very cheap breaks, and a third in leg nine sealed the deal. Martin's typically around 3/1, he's a bit better than that over the last twelve months by maybe 3%, but in 2023 with Gerwyn hitting peak form he's a bit worse than 3/1 by about the same margin. Pretty easy pass on this one.

Saturday 27 May 2023

No Payne no gain - round two tips

Will take yesterday. Only needed one bet out of three to hit to turn a profit, and that's exactly what we got, Payne wasn't great but got the job done, Kurz was really close (i.e. hit 25 when needing bull for the match) to getting us the win but didn't quite get there, frankly leg nine was the costly one letting de Sousa break in 24 darts when we only had one at bull ourselves, while Evans left himself way too much to do, missing thirteen darts at double in the first four legs, he did get it back to 5-4 but missed double for a 148. Let's go through all of these second round games and try to extract some value.


0.1u de Sousa 7/4 vs Aspinall - This is a weird form reversal one. On 2023 data, Jose's only at around 37%, which with the price is neither here nor there, but the larger sample points to Aspinall only having a 52/48 edge, which is nothing and makes 7/4 look a huge price. I'll go small, de Sousa was alright without ever really getting into top gear yesterday, and the form differential is a bit of a concern - but not enough to actually stop me betting it.


van Veen > Noppert - The hype on Gian is being picked up in the market now, only Hills have him at 11/8 which is close to firing - year long he's up at 46%, in 2023 he's frankly playing better darts than Noppert, and yesterday looked good as well. Spicy game, but I'll trust in the UK Open winner's ability to keep this close.
Razma > Searle - 5/2 is a big price, there's not a huge deal there on twelve month data (I'm only getting 32%), but in 2023 it does look like he's playing better stuff and increases by about 5%, which brings this into the realms of being a play. Frankly it's yesterday that makes me say no for sure, he did not look great in getting a 5-0 lead and nearly fucked it up.
Ratajski > van den Bergh - On full year data this should be in the bottom column, showing 52/48 to Dimi with Krzysztof being 11/10, but 2023? That's nearer 60% in favour of the Pole, who looked fantastic yesterday, probably the best we've seen him in some time. I won't stop you if you want to play on form. Do have to love Usher's three treble visit for nine yesterday by the way.
Kleermaker > Cross - This one is all about how you value form. Twelve months worth of data makes this a very clear no play, Kleermaker is barely over 25% and the best line I can see is the 11/4 on 365. Bring it to 2023 data however, and Martijn suddenly rockets up to 45% - similar was seen against Soutar yesterday, so it's a clear case of Kleermaker putting a mediocre 2022 behind him. That said, Cross looked very good in picking up a Pro Tour title last weekend. Pick your form poison I guess?
Smith-Neale > Heta - Really hard to pick against Heta on the Euro Tour, but at 9/2, and with Adam floating between a 25% and 30% chance regardless of sample, I think you need to at least be thinking about taking the shot at the underdog in this one. If he looked better against Roman Benecky (there's only really the two convincing legs where he held in five visits in the early stages) then I would probably say what the hell and throw out a tenth of a unit more in hope than anything.
Beaton > Smith - Another "how do you value form" question. It feels as if Ross is playing well in 2023, and he does have a Pro Tour win, but Steve has comparatively played better still - going from a sub-35 percent win chance over twelve month's of data to up around 45% in 2023. Full data makes Steve merely a neutral play at the prices offered, but if you like current form then don't let me dissuade you from making the play. He didn't do much wrong yesterday either, although if Pietreczko doesn't miss a big number he gets a match dart and we could be talking about Ricardo here - could that miss end up costing him a major appearance?
Payne > Cullen - The temptation to double down on this one is real, there's a couple of places offering better than 3/1, and Payne's only slightly below a one in three chance, although this does drop just below 30% on this year's form. If he played a bit better yesterday, I'd probably say yes, he got the W but did not look great in doing so.
Schindler > Clemens - This is very close. Martin's favoured slightly, 10/11 being available in multiple spots, and year long he projects right between 55% and 60% - rising to near the upper end of that bracket in 2023, which is counter intuitive given Gabriel's covered up injury issues seemingly making him underrated a bit. Clemens' so-so game yesterday is more ammunition for those wanting to fire on Schindler, Evans basically let him get 5-0 up and it's a bit fortunate that Gabriel was able to fall over the line.


Chisnall/Rupprecht - Pascal looked very solid yesterday (although his doubling was questionable to say the least), but this is a mismatch with Chizzy up nearer 80% than 75%. That goes the other way if you look at just 2023, which is clearly Dave apparently not playing quite as well (Rupprecht's data would obviously be unchanged as a new card holder from nowhere), but 7/2 looks just fine in terms of lines.
Clayton/Montgomery - Ross was fine in dealing with an alright Kantele (second and sixth legs excepted), but this looks more of a mismatch than the Chisnall game, with Clayton projecting near 85% whichever way you look at it, that'd imply a 1/5 line, he's 2/11, we move on quickly.
Price/Evans - Pretty much the same as the above in terms of lines, Evans is a percent or two better than Ross was, and looked very good against White yesterday, but with nothing better than 4/1 available it's a very clear and quick no play.
Rock/Brown - This could almost be pushed up into the section above, with Brown projecting in the low 20's year long but a bit over 25% on 2023 form, which possibly brings 7/2 into the equation and 4/1 worth a look - if it wasn't for yesterday. Walpen flashed but was just horribly inconsistent, frankly if he puts in another three legs like the ones he won Marcel takes that, that's just how ordinary Keegan was yesterday. Play like that again and this could be very one sided.
van Duijvenbode/Gurney - Seems like they are recognising that Daryl's playing well this year. Dirk's a touch over a two in three shot on twelve month form, but Gurney edges up a fraction past 35% on this year's stats. With prices at around 1/2 for Dirk we're not interested in this one either way.
Humphries/Dobey - Chris is at around 42% in any data set, so we're not interested in this one at all with Luke coming in at 8/11. The only thing that might make us consider anything different is the level of play Chris showed yesterday, with not a single leg won in five visits, and the four legs he lost only producting a timid 81 average. It was a bit of a doubling shitshow yesterday and if Hall had hit some and was keeping it closer in other spots we're talking about a different game here.
Gilding/van Barneveld - Almost tempted to move this up a spot. Raymond looked solid yesterday once Liam Maendl-Lawrance stopped playing like a man inspired for the first four legs (can see from that how he managed to get so many quali spots), is a touch over 50% year long and actually slightly over 55% in this year's form - this is despite seemingly doing little and Gilding winning a major.

Friday 26 May 2023

ET9 round 1 bets


0.1u Kurz 10/3 vs de Sousa - Bet is purely based on the price, what we have seen Nico do in the past, and that he seemed to play alright in the qualifier which was only last week. Jose's playing fine, but better than 3/1 in Germany seems to be intuitively correct to take.
0.1u Payne 12/5 vs Whitlock - I think this is worth a look. We don't have a mountain of data on Josh, but he's played enough in 2023 that he doesn't appear that far off of where Whitlock is, and we know at his peak he's capable of winning Pro Tours. 42% is what I'm seeing, the line is implying around 30%, that's a tasty enough edge for a small stab.
0.1u Evans 12/5 vs Clemens - There is a wild consistency problem in this one, Evans is scoring higher than Gabriel in won legs in 2023 by nearly two points, but Lee is scoring over seven points a turn less in the legs he's lost, whereas Clemens is actually scoring higher in his losing legs than his winning ones. That evens out somewhat in 12 month data, which gives Clemens an edge as opposed to Evans having an edge - but not by much, and this is a very solid price to take. Can get better on random books and exchanges.


van Veen > Wattimena - 8/11 on Hills appears pretty close to value. That said, I thought Gian would be a bigger leader in the projections. Don't hate the play if you want to go with it but wouldn't take any shorter.
Edhouse > Razma - Bookies can't really split them, what looks like an obvious play on Ritchie on full data is offset by Razma playing better of late (or Edhouse playing worse).
White > Evans - There's a couple of very random books that are offering 4/5, which I think is a play, and I can get that on the exchange, but the closest we can get on a reputable book is 3/4 on Coralbrokes, which is nearly enough but not quite.
Kleermaker > Soutar - Bit of a weird one in that the projections based on full 12 month data and 2023 data are a bit all over the place. Market has Martijn a shade longer than evens, so I'm kind of tempted to play the guy who's playing better right now (when was the last time we heard of Soutar doing anything?), but the trust in larger data is making me say no.
Benecky > Smith-Neale - We don't have a great deal of data on Roman, but someone who beat Ando fairly recently feels like he ought to be value at 7/4 against Smith-Neale? How much of that was Gary playing bad though, that's the question.


Rupprecht/Kist - Surprised to see Pascal actually favoured here, there's not enormous data on both with Kist not being a card holder and Rupprecht being moderately new, but it thinks the German's a small favourite and the market agrees.
Usher/Ratajski - Market is correct in its assessment of how much better Krzysztof is here.
Montgomery/Kantele - Got to trust in what data we have on Marko, which is saying Ross should win about as often as the 4/6 price suggests. Feels kind of wrong given Marko's seemingly having a good season, but a good season at the SDC level is seemingly still a dog to someone, without meaning to sound harsh on Ross as he's done better than I thought he would, effectively making up the numbers at tour card level.
Brown/Walpen - Hard to really say how good Marcel is. Very difficult to suggest that a best price of 3/1 can possibly be value, but equally hard to take Keegan at shorter than 1/3 against anyone without decent data, even if he has won a Pro Tour in recent memory.
Slevin/Gurney - I've got this bang on 2/1, Daryl's a tick shorter than that, nothing really doing here, feels like the early 2023 hype on Dylan has died down incredibly quickly.
Hall/Dobey - Maybe the longer data is giving the slightest of slight values on Graham, but I'm not touching it.
Beaton/Pietreczko - I can only see this as being outside of 50/50 by a percentage point or two, and neither player is odds against anywhere.
van Barneveld/Maendl-Lawrance - Liam's obviously doing something right to have got to as many events this year as he has, but 7/2 on someone who's actually scoring only 84 once he's got there against Barney is not of interest. Weirder things have happened, but not that many.

Thursday 25 May 2023

Sindelfingen round 1 projections

Quick rough and ready guide here - will project based on year long data and 2023 data (the former first), where players have far too limited (i.e. less than 50 legs in the database) sample size I've indicated that and not projected:

van Veen/Wattimena - 65%, 61%
Razma/Edhouse - 41%, 52%
Rupprecht/Kist - 58%, 62%
Usher/Ratajski - 28%, 24%
Montgomery/Kantele - 58%, 62%
White/Evans - 63%, 64%
Brown/Walpen - Walpen only 8 legs won
Kleermaker/Soutar - 38%, 58%
de Sousa/Kurz - Kurz only 2 legs won
Benecky/Smith-Neale - Benecky only 10 legs won
Slevin/Gurney - 33%, 33%
Hall/Dobey - 29%, 25%
Beaton/Pietreczko - 51%, 52%
Maendl-Lawrance/van Barneveld - Maendl-Lawrance only 22 legs won
Payne/Whitlock - 42%, 42%
Clemens/Evans - 53%, 40%

Monday 22 May 2023

FRH ranking update

Well those each way tips went just about as badly as could have been projected, but we'll put that behind us - Saturday's PC was a weird one with Cross getting it over de Decker, who we turned down in favour of Ratajski (which we'd like to have back), while Radek Szaganski and Niels Zonneveld completed a very odd semi final lineup, the tournament also seeing Joe Murnan and Jimmy Hendriks going deep. Sunday was a bit more chalky with Clayton getting the cake over Rock, Heta and Gilding reaching the semis, and only Krcmar being unseeded in the quarters, although he's not exactly unknown in terms of making runs. This gives us this as new FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Rob Cross (UP 1)
7 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
8 Jonny Clayton
9 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
10 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)
11 Danny Noppert (DOWN 2)
12 Dave Chisnall
13 Joe Cullen
14 Damon Heta (UP 1)
15 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)
16 Andrew Gilding (UP 1)
17 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
18 Gabriel Clemens
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

Cross and Clayton have bridged the gap from the five way clusterfuck we saw last update and made it into a three way battle for 6th to 8th with Aspinall, less than 4k separating those three. A tricky weekend for Noppie seems him drop out of the top ten, but less than 2k separates him and Dirk. Smith had a bad weekend and drops just below Heta, Gilding's created a bit of breathing room from Searle, who's closer to Clemens than he is to getting the top 16 spot back, while Dobey and de Sousa are separated by less than 1k. Rock is up to 22nd now, and probably by tomorrow would be close enough to Dobey to hit the top 20 with a Pro Tour win. Heck, with Dobey not in Sindelfingen, he can get up into the top 20 with another Euro Tour final by this time next week. Lower down, players who've had notable performances this week (or in Prague) include de Decker getting up to 43rd, which will bump easily up into the top 40 if you include provisional Matchplay money, his final pushing him comfortably into the field with just four events before the cutoff. Sedlacek had an alright run in Prague but it only really made a top 60 spot safer rather than bumping him that highly, Zonneveld is getting close to the top 64, Murnan and Hendriks are close to each other just off the top 80, Szaganski and Veenstra are into the top 100 along with Chris Landman and Lee Evans, new card holder Slevin will get there after the Euro Tour as well.

Saturday 20 May 2023

How we find each way value - a walk through guide

As I've got a bit of time before the off, I'm going to look at the PC11 draw and work out who I might want to bet on. Generally I look for two things - players who have a decent draw, and players who are undervalued. The first is important as I don't think the market adjusts enough to someone ending up on a bad board or at least a bad first round draw, and secondly we clearly want to be betting players that we think will give us a better return on investment than the market is suggesting. I'm going to go through each quarter and board - usually I want to highlight one player per board who I think may not have the best chance of winning it, but will have some chance of winning it.

For each player I will list their scoring this year, and their odds on Betfair


B1: Chisnall (94, 16), Clark (80, 500), Fullwell (81, 500), Payne (87, 500), Rydz (91, 125), Klose (89, 200), Burness (88, 500), Killington (86, 500)
B2: R Smith (93, 40), Murnan (85, 250), Nentjes (86, 250), Evetts (88, 250), van den Bergh (92, 28), Rupprecht (89, 250), Kciuk (87, 500), Andersen (84, 500)
B3: Clayton (95, 14), Monk (90, 250), L Evans (90, 250), Raman (86, 500), Anderson (96, 20), van Dongen (85, 500), Woodhouse (91, 200), Sparidaans (86, 500)
B4: Cross (93, 16), Roelofs (87, 250), Edhouse (89, 250), Hempel (84, 500), K Huybrechts (91, 175), Waites (89, 250), Jansen (85, 500), Brooks (89, 250)

Board one seems like an obvious Chisnall, but a bit too short to really consider. Board two seems like a two horse race, but Smith over Dimi given the relative route to the board final, quality and odds is preferred. Woodhouse might be the pick on three given Clayton and Ando don't really appeal, but I don't see how he realises the chances that often. Then on board 4, Cross looks the pick, but Huybrechts is not that far off and has a much better price. I think this quarter has to be Ross Smith for me.


B5: Heta (92, 50), Veenstra (91, 200), Cole (84, not priced), Scutt (88, 250), Razma (88, 250), Joyce (91, 175), Goffin (82, 500), Meikle (89, 250)
B6: Cullen (92, 28), Justicia (89, 250), Menzies (92, 200), Knops (83, 500), Bunting (92, 66), Burton (86, 500), J Williams (93, 175), Vandenbogaerde (91, 250)
B7: Rock (94, 12), Petersen (84, 500), Landman (89, 250), Gawlas (88, 250), Whitlock (90, 175), Soutar (88, 175), Pietreczko (90, 200), Henderson (89, 250)
B8: Schindler (91, 66), Kleermaker (89, 250), van Trijp (85, 500), van der Voort (88, 200), Dobey (93, 25), R Evans (91, 200), Wilson (88, 500), Szaganski (87, 500)

Board five seems Heta really long, but Veenstra is a bastard of a draw, and I'd probably look more towards Joyce or Meikle for the value if we went for this board. Board 6 looks like it's clearly Jim here. That's a big price, he's longer than Bunting and playing better, although Menzies is worth considering. Board 7 I can't look past Rock, although Pietreczko might have a sniff, while on board 8, I think both Dobey and Schindler are a bit too short for their quality, so Evans would be the one for me. Clearly has to be Jim Williams from this quarter.


B9: Humphries (95, 20), Mol (86, 500), Lennon (91, 200), Smith-Neale (87, 500), de Decker (92, 175), Ward (90, not priced), Labanauskas (87, 500), Peters (82, 500)
B10: Ratajski (93, 66), L Williams (86, 500), Wilkinson (89, 500), van der Velde (86, 500), de Sousa (91, 125), Suljovic (87, 175), Hughes (90, 200), Barry (91, 150)
B11: Price (98, 3.5), Lukeman (88, 175), Kenny (90, 250), Brown (90, 250), Beaton (89, 250), Rowby (85, 200), Usher (88, 500), Labre (87, 500)
B12: van Gerwen (94, 4.5), Krcmar (91, 200), Crabtree (87, 250), S Williams (90, 200), Gurney (91, 125), Owen (88, 500), de Zwaan (89, 175), Burnett (87, 250)

Board 9 we need to look at de Decker. Is on the up, that side of the board is about as easy as it gets, Humphries is clearly better but the price is not right and Lennon could be tricky. Board 10 looks to be a super easy Ratajski. He's playing well, the board only really has de Sousa or maybe the winner of the last game to worry about. Board 11 is Price, while board 12 does have van Gerwen on it which surprised me given Thursday (indeed, Betfair didn't initially have him priced up). Taking Ratajski, clearly can't pick anyone from the Price/MvG side, someone having to go through both of them would be too tough and neither is any value at all.


B13: van Duijvenbode (94, 20), Whitehead (86, 250), White (93, 200), Wattimena (91, 250), van Barneveld (91, 66), Rusty (88, 250), Kuivenhoven (87, 250), Zonneveld (90, 200)
B14: Gilding (92, 125), R Huybrechts (86, 500), Webster (86, 500), O'Connor (90, 175), Clemens (92, 66), Martinez (88, 500), Montgomery (89, 250), Doets (87, 250)
B15: Noppert (92, 40), Meulenkamp (88, 500), Hall (89, 500), Slevin (88, 250), Wade (91, 125), King (88, 200), van Veen (94, 100), Jones (87, 500)
B16: Searle (93, 28), Sedlacek (88, 200), Hendriks (89, 500), Bates (88, 500), Dolan (91, 175), Campbell (89, 200), Rafferty (87, 250), Lovely (85, not priced)

Board 13 has White jumping out, Dirk isn't actually too badly priced but Ian returning to form seems like a more realistic proposition and he's ten times the odds. Board 14 has to be Gilding, can't see anyone offering too much resistance to the seeds, so with a similar record and 125 and 66 being the odds, we take the guy in three figures. Board 15 is van Veen and it's not close, we'd normally consider Noppert but Gian is incredible, and board 16 is again pick your poison with the seeds. Has to be van Veen, who's going to be the first name to look for in these until the market catches up. He was 175, but has been backed into 100's, so maybe the market is catching up, but that's still good enough for me.

Sunday 14 May 2023

Prague last 16

Apologies for no post yesterday, had an emergency extended meeting with a man about a dog in the wake of the Peterborough result on Friday which made yesterday pretty much a write off, if Friday's bets were anything to go by that may not have been the worst result, Razma just played solid enough stuff and Rydz had a real bad day at the office, let's look at the last sixteen:

Cross/Sedlacek - Almost half tempted by Karel here in the hair on hair derby, decent enough performance to dump out Cullen who wasn't doing much wrong, Rob wasn't too bad either though, I think the line should be a lot closer to 2/1 than it is, but there's only the one random book which is giving not quite the edge I'd want so I won't make an official play.

van Gerwen/Rock - Very tight one to call, Josh played better yesterday and the projections are more or less evens, albeit Michael has a decent consistency advantage down to an absurd losing average. Will go with it, 0.25u Rock 8/5 on Betfred, generally available 6/4 looks just about alright as well.

Aspinall/Searle - Nathan was possibly the pick of the round yesterday in defeating Lukeman, while Searle mainly capitalised on some duff legs from Beaton to squeeze home in one that Steve will probably want back. I've got Nathan as a favourite, maybe not by quite as much as the market indicates but with relative performances yesterday there is zero point in touching Ryan here.

Chisnall/Gilding - Oddly this one isn't on oddschecker, dunno why but it is what it is, Gilding wasn't great against van der Voort but Vincent wasn't great either, Chizzy looked pretty solid in defeating Nentjes, and looks approaching a 65% favourite in this one, such is Dave's general form. The market looks close to recognising Dave's edge based on the couple of books I've quickly checked in the absence of oddschecker but I doubt anywhere is overvaluing Gilding enough to want to look at a bet - I'd probably want at least 8/11 before I thought about a Dave bet.

van Duijvenbode/Clayton - Dirk got through a surprisingly tight match up against Vandenbogaerde, playing fine but needing every leg to get home, Jonny won what can only be described as a weird game, looking great on the Kleermaker throw but terrible on his own. I think Dirk's favoured small here, oddschecker is saying we can get evens on Dirk which is where we'd start to consider, but I'd probably need 11/10. I'm having a small personal play on the exchange at odds against but nothing on a conventional book.

Heta/Huybrechts - Damon was comfortable enough against Slevin, playing alright but not needing to do that much, while Kim was one of the few non-seeds (I think it's just him and Sedlacek?) to get into the last sixteen with a fine win over Schindler. Heta appears strongly favoured to me, it should be more 4/9 than 4/7 which is the best available price, that doesn't quite offer enough value to recommend a play.

Noppert/Wright - Danny looked really good against de Sousa, just a couple of mediocre lost legs late on the de Sousa throw, while Wright needed to come from 5-3 down to Dolan to scrape home, although he didn't play badly by any stretch of the imagination. The bookies can barely separate them, I've got Wright as a 55-60% favourite, this would normally be a play but I'm typically looking for excuses not to bet Wright when the edge we've got is marginal for a play given form and Danny playing a fantastic game yesterday is the excuse I need.

Humphries/van den Bergh - Final game, Luke got by against Ross Smith with very steady scoring in the legs he lost but only the one fifteen darter, the rest of the legs won being in six visits, while Dimitri took home the last game with a good showing against an outclassed Stefan Bellmont. Line, when vig is taken into account, looks just about perfect, I've got Luke at 56% and he's 8/11, so no interest there.

So just Rock today. How many times have we said that in the last twelve months?

Thursday 11 May 2023

Prague day 1

Draw is done, qualifier is in the bag, looks like there's a few decent players coming through, would have been great to see Masek get through who looked the pick, shanking double twelve for a nine, but he didn't, oh well. Let's go straight into it with lines being up:


0.25u Gawlas 13/10 v Razma - We finally get a bet deep into the evening session and we go with the home town lad Adam, who'll have the crowd well on his side, a 54% winning chance against a maybe not at his best Madars, and a generous price on Hills compared to the 11/10 that is generally available.
0.25u Rydz evs v Huybrechts - Yeah, I thought this one was a bit odd, with Callan seemingly being way out of form with it being quite some time since the last time he did anything notable, looking right out of sorts at least once on TV and Kim having won a title this year. But on year long stats, Callan projects at 60%, a figure that does not drop more than 3 or 4 points if we cut down to, say, the worlds forward inclusive. Appears weird, I know, but we'll trust the numbers here.


Lukeman > Kovacs - Not a great deal of data on Patrik, only having 11 legs which seemed mostly won, I'm guessing from a WDF event, Lukeman should be way too strong. Patrik's only scoring 75 compared to Martin's near 90, was only averaging a mediocre standard in the Eastern European qualifier (naturally weaker due to no Czechs) although he did beat a couple of half-decent players. 1/4 might be a touch of an underestimate.
Sebesta > Slevin - Dylan feels like he's tailed off a touch since his good start, dropping overall scoring down to 88, which I think brings Sebesta into play, who's at home, has got through a couple of qualis this season already, and the scoring isn't that far off Dylan's. Still think Slevin ought to be too good, but there's a couple of places offering a fair bit better than the generally available 3/1, which I think is at least long enough to consider.
de Decker > White - Mike's in the ascendancy, Ian's recovering, and the market is saying evens each way. I've got Mike at nearer to 53% than 52%, which is a tiny edge but not enough of an edge to truly consider.
de Sousa > Brooks - Feels like we've seen Bradley a few times of late, getting the occasional good result which might overrate him a touch against de Sousa, the market's saying Jose at bang on two out of three times, I'm getting him slightly over 70% which is getting into the edge where we start thinking about it, but it's not quite enough. 4/7 I'd probably go with it.
Hughes > van der Voort - This one feels close as well, two players looking to arrest a slide, Jamie showing a brief flash earlier in the year with a deep Pro Tour run while Vincent's done little for quite some time now. I'm getting Jamie just over 60%, so 5/6 is in the region of being worth considering, but it's not quite enough.
Laurila > Smith - This is just a "it's a silly price, can we really consider it" option, Jani looked up and down in getting through the Nordic qualifier, I'm mainly looking at the one game where he averaged 93 over an eleven leg spell - do that and you shouldn't be a 14/1 underdog against anyone. Ross Smith is probably the worst draw he could have got, but you never know.
Beaton > Labanauskas - this is almost the same sort of projections and line as the JdS match - I've got Steve bang on 71%, while Darius is still getting enough on name value alone at this stage to keep Steve as just an 8/15 favourite. One more percent or one more tick in Steve's favour and I probably punt, such is the disparity in form between players that, on paper, you would think ought to be fairly evenly matched.
Sedlacek > Sparidaans - Line appears fairly close to spot on, with Karel at 1/2 and him having a 68% chance, but penultimate game on at home, I think it's maybe closer to a play than a clear no bet, particularly with Jeffrey, who to be fair hasn't looked too bad on occasions since getting his card back, maybe big stage rusty as well.


Bellmont/Rodriguez - Stefan's looked half decent on occasions, and runs into Rowby who, if you look back at the 180 in 180 post a little bit down, is right out of form. I'm not sure that Stefan's the better player, but the line that is set at 40% chances looks like it's not going to be too far off the mark.
Nentjes/Pisek - Geert is seemingly not quite at the best form he's been in, but still should have more than enough for domestic qualifier Pisek, who got through with low to mid 80's averages throughout, which isn't too bad but not in Nentjes' calibre. Maybe with Geert being not at peak and it being a hometown crowd (at 2pm on a Friday though?), maybe David at 3/1 is not too bad, but I think it'd be longer without those factors so happy to avoid it.
Vandenbogaerde/Campbell - First game between card holders, and the line's looking round about correct. Matt's had some alright games but Mario's good enough that the projection's only at about 57% in favour of the Canadian. 4/6 is of no interest obviously, but 13/10 on the Belgian is similarly boring.
Veenstra/Smolik - Dalibor is here for b2b appearances, and looked alright for a short period last week, but Richard's going to be too consistent and strong, Smolik finished the quali with b3b 83 averages which isn't really going to cut the mustard. 7/1 is kind of huge but Veenstra is an extremely tough draw to come through.
Klaasen/Dolan - Not between card holders, but we've got enough data on Jelle to be more than confident about his level of play, which is giving him a 35% shot against Brendan. I'd have thought it might have been a bit higher, but it is what it is and the market puts Dolan at 8/15, which is exactly in agreement, so can't really recommend a play on Jelle at 13/8 even if we think the projection is an underestimate.
Kleermaker/Bunting - Thought this would be a "well we know Stephen's really underrated, but 12/5 for Martijn, that's surely worth a punt" kind of spot. Then I put the numbers in and it spits out 27% for Kleermaker, and then put my wallet back in my pocket.

So just the two punts, one of which is somewhat bookie dependent, but there's a lot of randoms that are hard to judge in this one so we'll look more to Saturday I guess.

Monday 8 May 2023

Belgium done

van Gerwen grabs the victory over Humphries in the final, MvG perhaps surprisingly only getting his first ET win of the season, while Humphries is now 0-3 in ET finals this season, seemingly not playing badly in any of them, but just running into the better player on the night each time. It's a quick turn around now before Prague this weekend, but for now, the new FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Rob Cross
8 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)
9 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)
10 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
11 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)
12 Dave Chisnall
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ross Smith
15 Damon Heta
16 Ryan Searle
17 Andrew Gilding
18 Gabriel Clemens
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

Clayton going a round further than Noppert sees them swap places in the really tight battle between 7th and 11th, which also saw Dirk's semi put him ahead of Dimitri and back into the top 10. Lower down, Rock is now within a Euro Tour win of the top 20, and a repeat of this weekend's run could see him get past both Wade and Ratajski, neither of whom are in Prague. Ando's run doesn't really do much as he's in a bit of an island below Bunting but ahead of a few filling out the bottom end of the top 30. Andy Baetens is up to #178, but lower down there weren't many notable runs which make a difference, Matt Campbell's gained a couple of spots but that's about it.

Betting was OK, correctly identifying Dirk got us up for the event, could have been more for reasons that we've eluded to earlier but we're not going to get greedy, a steady seasonal ROI of above 5% is just fine.

Nice job by Conan Whitehead to get the last Challenge Tour win of the weekend, while in Wales, Martyn Turner, a name who's been around forever, was able to get the Open win, while Connor Levett, a name I've never heard of before, won the Classic as well as the pairs, so not a bad weekend for him either. Obviously Greaves won both the ladies' events, but are we really learning anything at this stage? I don't think so.

We're rapidly closing down on the Matchplay cutoff - just looking at the race now, 14 of the 16 Pro Tour qualifiers are in places 17-32 of the live main ranking race, with only Rydz and King (who's 32nd anyway) missing out in favour of Whitlock and Beaton. Is there really not that many players breaking through this season, or is it just a case of there not being enough time? Players in the ascendancy who aren't too far outside include de Decker, Williams (Jim) and Pietreczko, all of which are within a couple of grand of the last spots, but they're all second year of tour card players. Looks like the nearest player from 2023's intake is Veenstra, but even a Pro Tour win wouldn't put him in the field, so it's looking like it might be a slightly stale field this year. Still plenty of time for players to make runs and shake it up though, starting on Friday. Will be back before then with first round thoughts.

Sunday 7 May 2023

Two quarter final bets

0.25u van Duijvenbode 6/5, I'm seeing this one the other way around with DvD tracking above 55% to win this one. Seems a clear play, Clayton's good but Dirk's just a little bit better now.
0.1u Anderson 6/4, 365 literally just put odds up now, my projections actually put him slightly ahead. Gary's got a bit more inconsistency but even if we push van Gerwen up 5% it's still just enough for a small play.

Nothing else, Humphries and Rock seem marginally undervalued, but nothing to get excited about. God damn Schindler missing that big number for a match dart.

Belgium last 16

Little bit of a rough day yesterday giving back a quarter of a unit, Campbell and Anderson got the job done, de Sousa I think gave us value for the bet, Gilding certainly wasn't bad, just Baetens was better, perhaps the best we've seen him to date, then Wright. Oh dear. Losing one bet from a 5-2 position in an event is bad, losing two is very unfortunate. Oh well, there's eight games today, let's look at those in a minute, but briefly, Berry van Peer jesus christ, winning both Challenge Tours yesterday, making it three in four for the weekend and four overall this year, it's certainly not an unassailable lead that he has but it is really, really strong.


0.1u Heta 6/4 vs Clayton - I'm seeing this as a coinflip, and the Hills line is implying he's only got 40% chances. I could probably go a normal bet here, but my original thought was not to bet at all, so I'll split the difference. I'm not sure why, there's just something about the performance Damon put up yesterday which wasn't inspiring, he didn't need to do that much to beat Mol but you'd have liked him to be better. Clayton on the other hand looked solid against Barry. We'll still go, but just small.
0.1u Schindler 5/2 vs van Gerwen - This is another redo from last weekend, there we got 3/1 which we're not seeing, but Martin's actually a percentage point up in the projections compared to last week, which doesn't completely compensate for the worse line but still indicates just enough value to take a small stab. He'll need to play better today than he did yesterday for sure, but we know he can.


Humphries > Baetens - I'm not going to potentially get caught out twice here. 2/5 on Luke is half a tempter, I've got him at 76% to win the game, but that's certainly not the level of edge we appeared to have yesterday and if Andy's outplaying his year long stats, which isn't an unreasonable assessment, what looks like almost enough edge to bet probably isn't there in reality.
Noppert > Aspinall - This is a redo from last week, and we get the exact same price and projection - Noppie's 11/10, and I have him at 53%. Of course, Danny won that one. We're going to keep it in the same bracket, after all Danny is not on home soil in this one, if we couldn't push a match in the Netherlands up to a bet, we're not taking one in Belgium there.


van Duijvenbode v Campbell - The line might be juiced ever so slightly in Dirk's favour, I'm getting Campbell at 30%, so the 9/4 on Betfair is break even compared to a best of 1/3 on DvD, but we don't bet break even.
Chisnall v Rock - Every bookie can't split them, it's just a case of how much they take the piss with vig (how Betfair get away with both being 5/6 compared to 10/11 is amazing). Chizzy's ever so slightly better at 52% but there's no edge to speak of.
Smith v Clemens - Feels like there's enormous amounts of vig in this game. I've got Gabriel as a fraction of a percent better than 30%, we're typically seeing prices just one side of 2/1 or the other, which isn't paying nearly enough, at the same time Smith is best priced 2/5, which also doesn't look great and he's shorter than 1/3 in places. Avoid.
Cross v Anderson - The value train has made its last call for the weekend I think. I've got Ando as favourite, around 60/40 - thought it might have been a little closer, but it isn't. Gary's around 4/7, 813, that sort of no value price, Rob's 13/10 or so, again, no value.

Maybe I do something before the quarters.

Saturday 6 May 2023

Belgium day 2

Pretty decent day 1, Jeff Smith choking a huge lead aside, so we've clawed back what was lossed on ET6. Shoutout to Ricky Evans - winning 6-0? Against Huybrechts? In Belgium? Nice work, same to van Peer and Wayne Jones on getting the job done on the Challenge Tour. Quickly through day 2 picks now:

What's Mr. Chips doing? He's going for his wallet:

0.25u Gilding 4/6 vs Baetens - Baetens is pretty good, but from what I've seen I doubt he has the scoring to live with Gilding. It's moderately limited data on Andy but we're getting 72% for Goldfinger here. Even if we're overestimating by, say, 5%, it's still a fine bet.
0.1u Campbell 7/4 vs Cullen - We're getting 44% on Matt to nick this one. Instinctively this feels like a bit of an overestimate, but I don't see anything obviously crazy in a greater inspection of the data, he played fine yesterday, and as long as we're not overestimating enormously I think a small play is clearly warranted.
0.25u Anderson 4/5 vs Searle - Gary didn't need to do a great amount against Ratajski to win very comfortably (multiple six visit breaks isn't a great look for Krzysztof), but got the win and projects at near 65% against Ryan, who's doing OK but isn't really playing at quite as high a level as Gary is at the moment. It's only Hills that have this line, I wouldn't go with the 4/6 that's generally available.
0.25u Wright 4/5 vs Clemens - This seems like too much of an overreaction to Wright's apparent lack of form. I've got him as more than two in three, so an implied line of 55% is a great play. But what of form, you say? Filter it to legs played since the worlds, and he's still over two in three. 365 has the line, most have it at about 4/6 (which frankly still looks OK), we'll take the value here.
0.1u de Sousa 5/2 vs van Gerwen - I'm going to take a small flier here. Jose looked alright yesterday, clearly has enough of a peak game that he can trouble MvG, and the data I have shows him at 38%, which with a line implying 30% gives me just enough confidence to take a stab at this one.

It's good but it's not right:

Bellmont > Cross - Just a case of limited data, only having 50 winning legs on him. That's giving 30% and we're getting near 4/1, and his win yesterday was pretty good and a repeat level of performance could give Rob some issues, but I'm holding back given lack of data.
Heta > Mol - Hills have 3/10, which looks fine given that we have Damon at just under 85% to win this one, only issue that's stopping me from betting is that Mol may see this as a huge free hit given the nature of his win today, and outperform enough that he cuts down the edge enough where this isn't a play. It seems safe enough to put in an acca, but I'm just about holding off from making this an official play.
Schindler > Gurney - This appears very close, the bookies have this close to even with Martin being 10/11, I've got him a little bit better than that at a bit closer to 60% than 55%, but I'm going to hold off given Daryl's propensity to nick games this season.
van den Bergh > Smith - There might be a modicum of value on the home town hero here, 13/8 is available which implies he's got just under a 40% chance to win the game. I've got raw percentages at 41%. Throw in supportive home crowds and we can maybe tick it up a notch or two, wouldn't hate it if you went with Dimi in this one.
Rock > Dobey - The guy Chris played looked OK in flashes, he had a decent start but then just fell apart, Chris not needing to do a great deal to run off five of the last six legs (none of them fifteen darters). If you've got Betfred, then take their 5/6 if you want, otherwise I don't think there's quite enough to go with Josh here, I've got him at 62%, general 8/11 is not horrible but it's not quite enough.

Say what you see! Value? That's wrong I'm afraid:

Noppert v Evetts - Ted did what he needed to do yesterday, didn't play anywhere near the level that would be needed to really trouble Danny, we've got him at 25-30% to do so, hence with Noppie at 1/3 the line is looking pretty tight here.
Clayton v Barry - Not seeing much here. Was cool to see the random guy that Barry played qualify but as suspected he couldn't really get close and Keane only dropped one leg despite winning half the legs in at least seven visits. Keane's approaching 30% to win this one, Clayton is 2/5, line appears spot on.
Aspinall v Kleermaker - Another line that looks about right to start the evening session, like the last game of the afternoon session we've got the non-seed at a shade under 30%, Martijn got a solid performance against one of the worst draws he could have got, the line favours Aspinall a bit more than the previous one favours Clayton, but if there is an edge on the dog it's only by 1% or so on a random book nobody's heard of.
Humphries v Brooks - Bradley did well to get a very good win against a dangerous opponent in Veenstra, but Humphries is a different class again and Brooks barely has 20% chances in this one. 7/2 on the underdog looks alright.
Chisnall v Evans - Ricky got the standout win yesterday and played well, which is the only reason I'm not putting this one in the category above, as if it's clicking, maybe he has a touch more than the 24% chance I see against the guy getting all the cake on the Euro Tour this year, 4/11 on a 76% chance isn't a big deal but it would have been worth considering if Evans just scraped through.
van Duijvenbode v van Barneveld - Raymond did the job for us yesterday despite getting most of his legs won in six visits, will need to be a lot better today against Dirk, I've got Dirk slightly over 60%, he's 8/13, there's nothing to see here.

Thursday 4 May 2023

Belgium day 1

Let's go through on a game by game basis, looks like oddschecker's got everything but the HNQ games so should be easier than usual.


0.25u Evetts 1/2 vs Nilsson - It's honestly just lack of belief in Ted's ability for him to just steamroller games he should win easily that doesn't make me go half a unit. He projects at 90% and this is with good samples on Dennis. Could be one where we look idiotic in terms of sizing, but I'm holding back.
0.25u Smith 10/11 vs Mol - I have no clue why this is as close as it is unless Jeff is dealing with some sort of injury which is undisclosed. Damian's done basically nothing on tour, Jeff is still extremely competent and knows how to close games out and projects better than two in three. Like the above, I'm only not going larger given this feels like a trap for some reason.
0.25u Anderson 10/11 vs Ratajski - Sure, Gary played like complete wank the last time he popped up, and Ratajski is not playing badly at all, but Ando is projecting at 65% and we have huge data on both. Easy play. Spicy as fuck for a first rounder.
0.25u van Barneveld 6/5 vs Wade - Why is he an underdog? He projects at 65%! James has done little for ages. Back to back incredible games and plays.

Close but no:

Veenstra > Brooks - 8/11 is not a bad price on Richard here, given he projects at 61% straight up year long and appears to have had a real impressive Q1 of 2023 whereas Bradley's been simply alright, fear this may be one where in retrospect we look at it and say "look, we know Veenstra is good, just bet him you idiot", but I won't. For now.
Barry > Hilling - Seeing this in close at shorter than 1/10 requires explanation. Hilling got through the associate qualifier with averages that peaked at 77 over five different matches. This should be money printer goes brrrrrrrrrr, but after Keane fucked it up against Grant Sampson in the worlds I'm not taking him at insane to one on basically ever.
de Sousa > Schweyen - Jose is really short, but against someone that averaged no better than 87 in a six game run yesterday to get to this stage, I kind of think it's maybe not short enough. I'll give Francois the benefit of the doubt given it was still a huge field he needed to come through and he has got here before, but I'll pass.
Evans > Huybrechts - This is actually closer than it appears, we can get 11/8 on Ricky, but he's only a tiny underdog. I'll give the homefield and Kim's form more than enough benefit to not play, but this should be a fun one, Kim's not one to fuck around so this should flow gloriously.
Smolik > Dobey - I'd not heard of Dalibor before today, looking at his quali (which was only three weeks ago) he was pretty consistent mid to high 80's averages, which against someone coming across from the Premier League just tonight might almost be enough to make an apparently available 10/1 worth the tiniest of tiny flyers. But we won't as it's a debut (unless I missed him ages ago?) and he could easily just choke on the big stage.
White > van den Bergh - Ian's playing much, much better this year than he was last. He's actually projecting year long at comfortably closer to 45% than 40%, so you may be thinking why aren't we taking the near 2/1 on Laddies here, especially given Dimitri's coming straight from the PL just like Dobey is? Well it's in Belgium seems enough for it to be a no play. Would love Ian to make me look silly, but I don't see it happening appreciably more than what the market is suggesting, even if the raw data says it will.

Move along, nothing to see here:

Clemens/Usher - Clemens appears a tad undervalued at 8/15, and Usher certainly isn't bad, but I'd only put him at just one tick shorter than 1/2, so no real interest here.
Owen/Bellmont - Stefan is not a bad operator at all having got a win on the Challenge Tour last year. Robert should know about him. There's a fair bit of variance in the prices, if I was leaning anywhere it'd be towards Stefan at 6/4 on 365, but this appears close enough. Owen's better, but not by much.
Wattimena/Baetens - Andy got through the quali as expected. I've not got quite enough data to be super confident on his spot, but I'm thinking it's not far behind Jermaine, if he is behind at all. Only seeing 11/10, 6/5 sort of lines, which is an easy pass.
Rydz/Campbell - Pretty standard 55/45 projection on Callan. He's floating around the 8/11 range, there's a bit of variance which is overrating the Riot a tad, but not enough that we can take Matt here.
Gurney/Slevin - Dylan's maybe not quite backing up his late 22/early 23 promise and the numbers are reflecting that a touch. Still bags of talent and potential, but this is a tricky game, and I'm seeing Daryl at two in three right now, which with the market at 8/15 makes this one to avoid.
Kleermaker/Smith - Thought that Ross being a best price of 1/3 was a "wait, really?" sort of moment, then I shoved it into the master computer and saw him at 72%. Martijn's some way off from where he was real close to getting into difficult majors.

Monday 1 May 2023

180 in 180

Here's an update to 180 in 180, a list of the scoring of everyone in my database that has completed 180 legs in the last 180 days:

RankPlayerLegs WonLegs LostLeg Win %Winning AverageLosing AverageOverall Average
1Gerwyn Price34725158.03%99.0093.0596.64
2Michael van Gerwen44629959.87%95.9094.5695.40
3Dave Chisnall38630256.10%96.5092.7694.97
4Gary Anderson24920155.33%96.4892.3294.72
5Luke Humphries44234356.31%95.4192.9194.39
6Dirk van Duijvenbode47535857.02%95.7391.6094.07
7Michael Smith34026256.48%95.4391.5693.86
8Jonny Clayton42832157.14%94.5492.7693.84
9Josh Rock39129257.25%94.6892.0393.63
10Rob Cross33826655.96%94.1392.2193.34
11Gian van Veen25420355.58%94.4091.80 93.32
12Ross Smith30424355.58%93.8492.1493.14
13Chris Dobey22320651.98%94.5290.9592.91
14Krzysztof Ratajski29923156.42%94.1590.9792.85
15Jim Williams22118953.90%95.0489.9092.81
16Ian White18618450.27%94.8090.5092.78
17Nathan Aspinall30123755.95%94.1990.6192.72
18Stephen Bunting30224854.91%93.6390.9292.49
19Ryan Searle30624155.94%93.7190.3092.32
20Joe Cullen32328153.48%94.2589.6492.22
21Dimitri van den Bergh33528753.86%93.2490.3792.02
22Steve Lennon15214151.88%92.1991.6391.94
23Damon Heta29024953.80%94.2888.7491.86
24Raymond van Barneveld27226250.94%95.1088.0991.85
25Mike de Decker24621353.59%93.3089.5391.66
26Gabriel Clemens26123652.52%92.0991.1091.66
27Danny Noppert32026055.17%93.7088.6691.60
28James Wade24819256.36%92.5289.7291.39
29Daryl Gurney22320552.10%92.3390.0391.31
30Andrew Gilding29023055.77%92.7289.1491.24
31Scott Williams15816349.22%93.2489.0291.24
32Martin Schindler35430653.64%93.7487.7991.13
33Berry van Peer1409759.07%91.9389.7491.10
34Luke Woodhouse19418651.05%93.9187.6090.98
35Ryan Joyce12814247.41%91.6190.2890.96
36Callan Rydz22720352.79%93.0788.3290.95
37Willie O Connor17116051.66%92.6288.6690.83
38Keane Barry19318750.79%91.1390.4790.83
39Richard Veenstra16313355.07%91.7689.4790.81
40Cameron Menzies14114349.65%92.46 88.8590.75
41Mario Vandenbogaerde15314950.66%92.0289.1790.72
42Brendan Dolan24721853.12%92.5688.3790.71
43Boris Krcmar13514248.74%92.2788.3990.42
44Peter Wright14214549.48%94.1086.0390.19
45Jermaine Wattimena21321150.24%91.6088.5690.19
46Kim Huybrechts20317753.42%91.7188.1090.13
47Ricardo Pietreczko16416849.40%92.4287.4990.08
48Jose de Sousa21820451.66%91.9387.8490.08
49Lee Evans8810046.81%94.0086.1889.99
50Simon Whitlock21220950.36%92.2887.3589.98
51Ryan Meikle13416444.97%93.6386.7389.98
52Alan Soutar18020047.37%92.4087.4789.93
53Michael Mansell15115249.83%91.9287.4489.79
54Niels Zonneveld11913646.67%92.7286.4489.56
55Ricky Evans10013642.37%89.9589.1389.51
56Jeffrey de Zwaan15314850.83%90.9387.5489.38
57Steve Beaton17818549.04%91.5686.9189.33
58Chris Landman13113549.25%91.1587.3089.32
59Keegan Brown14515947.70%91.1587.0189.10
60Connor Scutt12912950.00%91.9385.9489.10
61Andy Boulton12713348.85%89.3688.8189.10
62Jamie Hughes15114950.33%91.3786.4589.07
63Matt Campbell17717750.00%92.1885.0988.82
64Mervyn King10914243.43%92.0986.0088.79
65Graham Hall909548.65%90.9186.3288.68
66Pascal Rupprecht8810346.07%89.2587.9988.61
67Jose Perales9411544.98%91.6285.7988.60
68Ted Evetts12414246.62%91.4985.6688.53
69Bradley Brooks16715951.23%91.2485.2488.48
70Dylan Slevin18415055.09%89.2487.0288.32
71Ritchie Edhouse12315045.05%90.3686.3588.29
72Ross Montgomery10811947.58%88.5687.9188.24
73Karel Sedlacek14013750.54%89.8186.3488.22
74Robert Owen9010047.37%90.0086.2788.17
75Radek Szaganski8711243.72%89.3286.8688.03
76Martin Lukeman12313148.43%89.0586.9088.01
77Madars Razma16516649.85%91.1484.5887.98
78Martijn Kleermaker14315148.64%90.3485.3487.90
79Vincent van der Voort10612745.49%90.7885.1787.89
80Mensur Suljovic 123143 46.24%88.4186.9787.71
81Adam Gawlas14717445.79%92.0683.2687.54
82Cameron Crabtree10010848.08%87.1387.9987.54
83Maik Kuivenhoven9311345.15%90.6584.4987.49
84Graham Usher9810648.04%88.7886.0687.48
85Krzysztof Kciuk10210150.25%90.6183.8187.46
86Richie Burnett12915046.24%89.7685.1987.46
87Owen Roelofs10612645.69%88.8186.0687.39
88Thibault Tricole11411450.00%88.8285.5587.29
89Nathan Rafferty16318247.25%87.3487.1887.26
90Kevin Doets12412450.00%87.9986.3887.25
91Darius Labanauskas10112444.89%87.2485.4286.31
92Brian Raman10111347.20%89.0983.3286.23
93Geert Nentjes9614140.51%88.9084.0286.17
94Jurjen van der Velde14415348.48%88.9683.0686.15
95Adam Warner879946.77%86.6585.5186.09
96Darren Webster8310643.92%88.4783.9086.06
97Jeffrey Sparidaans12311152.56%88.0382.4785.63
98Stephen Burton8010942.33%87.5183.9785.58
99John O'Shea10313643.10%89.4381.9585.38
100Florian Hempel11714444.83%87.1083.7385.35
101Rowby John Rodriguez12614247.01%87.5582.6485.12
102Danny Jansen11212946.47%85.5483.6184.58

Netherlands done

It's two wins for Chizzy, bumping him up to #1 in the European Championship race and giving him what should be more than enough breathing room to be sure of a Matchplay seeding with just four Euro Tours and four Players Championship events left before the cutoff if I've worked it out correctly. Humphries got a second final, nice to see him keeping things up although I'm sure he would have liked to have got a title of some description in the bank already.

New FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Rob Cross
8 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
9 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
10 Dimitri van den Bergh
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode
12 Dave Chisnall (UP 2)
13 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
14 Ross Smith (DOWN 1)
15 Damon Heta
16 Ryan Searle
17 Andrew Gilding
18 Gabriel Clemens
19 Jose de Sousa
20 Chris Dobey

There's some real tight races outside of the top 5 - Aspinall's got about a 10k lead on Cross, but less than 10k separates Cross in seventh and DvD in eleventh. Chizzy's win gets him a bit of a cushion ahead of Cullen (more than a Pro Tour at least) but is some way behind Dirk, Keane Barry's quarter didn't really move him at all and puts him in an island between Jim Williams and Adam Gawlas just outside the top 40. Berry van Peer is up into the top 90, while Dylan Slevin is closing down on the top 100 with quite a few non card holders just ahead of him, so it seems sooner rather than later before he's up in that bracket.

We now head to Belgium - Baetens completed the Denmark double, so will come into this event with a lot of form and confidence - let's just hope he gets through the qualifier!