Thursday 4 May 2023

Belgium day 1

Let's go through on a game by game basis, looks like oddschecker's got everything but the HNQ games so should be easier than usual.


0.25u Evetts 1/2 vs Nilsson - It's honestly just lack of belief in Ted's ability for him to just steamroller games he should win easily that doesn't make me go half a unit. He projects at 90% and this is with good samples on Dennis. Could be one where we look idiotic in terms of sizing, but I'm holding back.
0.25u Smith 10/11 vs Mol - I have no clue why this is as close as it is unless Jeff is dealing with some sort of injury which is undisclosed. Damian's done basically nothing on tour, Jeff is still extremely competent and knows how to close games out and projects better than two in three. Like the above, I'm only not going larger given this feels like a trap for some reason.
0.25u Anderson 10/11 vs Ratajski - Sure, Gary played like complete wank the last time he popped up, and Ratajski is not playing badly at all, but Ando is projecting at 65% and we have huge data on both. Easy play. Spicy as fuck for a first rounder.
0.25u van Barneveld 6/5 vs Wade - Why is he an underdog? He projects at 65%! James has done little for ages. Back to back incredible games and plays.

Close but no:

Veenstra > Brooks - 8/11 is not a bad price on Richard here, given he projects at 61% straight up year long and appears to have had a real impressive Q1 of 2023 whereas Bradley's been simply alright, fear this may be one where in retrospect we look at it and say "look, we know Veenstra is good, just bet him you idiot", but I won't. For now.
Barry > Hilling - Seeing this in close at shorter than 1/10 requires explanation. Hilling got through the associate qualifier with averages that peaked at 77 over five different matches. This should be money printer goes brrrrrrrrrr, but after Keane fucked it up against Grant Sampson in the worlds I'm not taking him at insane to one on basically ever.
de Sousa > Schweyen - Jose is really short, but against someone that averaged no better than 87 in a six game run yesterday to get to this stage, I kind of think it's maybe not short enough. I'll give Francois the benefit of the doubt given it was still a huge field he needed to come through and he has got here before, but I'll pass.
Evans > Huybrechts - This is actually closer than it appears, we can get 11/8 on Ricky, but he's only a tiny underdog. I'll give the homefield and Kim's form more than enough benefit to not play, but this should be a fun one, Kim's not one to fuck around so this should flow gloriously.
Smolik > Dobey - I'd not heard of Dalibor before today, looking at his quali (which was only three weeks ago) he was pretty consistent mid to high 80's averages, which against someone coming across from the Premier League just tonight might almost be enough to make an apparently available 10/1 worth the tiniest of tiny flyers. But we won't as it's a debut (unless I missed him ages ago?) and he could easily just choke on the big stage.
White > van den Bergh - Ian's playing much, much better this year than he was last. He's actually projecting year long at comfortably closer to 45% than 40%, so you may be thinking why aren't we taking the near 2/1 on Laddies here, especially given Dimitri's coming straight from the PL just like Dobey is? Well it's in Belgium seems enough for it to be a no play. Would love Ian to make me look silly, but I don't see it happening appreciably more than what the market is suggesting, even if the raw data says it will.

Move along, nothing to see here:

Clemens/Usher - Clemens appears a tad undervalued at 8/15, and Usher certainly isn't bad, but I'd only put him at just one tick shorter than 1/2, so no real interest here.
Owen/Bellmont - Stefan is not a bad operator at all having got a win on the Challenge Tour last year. Robert should know about him. There's a fair bit of variance in the prices, if I was leaning anywhere it'd be towards Stefan at 6/4 on 365, but this appears close enough. Owen's better, but not by much.
Wattimena/Baetens - Andy got through the quali as expected. I've not got quite enough data to be super confident on his spot, but I'm thinking it's not far behind Jermaine, if he is behind at all. Only seeing 11/10, 6/5 sort of lines, which is an easy pass.
Rydz/Campbell - Pretty standard 55/45 projection on Callan. He's floating around the 8/11 range, there's a bit of variance which is overrating the Riot a tad, but not enough that we can take Matt here.
Gurney/Slevin - Dylan's maybe not quite backing up his late 22/early 23 promise and the numbers are reflecting that a touch. Still bags of talent and potential, but this is a tricky game, and I'm seeing Daryl at two in three right now, which with the market at 8/15 makes this one to avoid.
Kleermaker/Smith - Thought that Ross being a best price of 1/3 was a "wait, really?" sort of moment, then I shoved it into the master computer and saw him at 72%. Martijn's some way off from where he was real close to getting into difficult majors.

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