Saturday 27 May 2023

No Payne no gain - round two tips

Will take yesterday. Only needed one bet out of three to hit to turn a profit, and that's exactly what we got, Payne wasn't great but got the job done, Kurz was really close (i.e. hit 25 when needing bull for the match) to getting us the win but didn't quite get there, frankly leg nine was the costly one letting de Sousa break in 24 darts when we only had one at bull ourselves, while Evans left himself way too much to do, missing thirteen darts at double in the first four legs, he did get it back to 5-4 but missed double for a 148. Let's go through all of these second round games and try to extract some value.


0.1u de Sousa 7/4 vs Aspinall - This is a weird form reversal one. On 2023 data, Jose's only at around 37%, which with the price is neither here nor there, but the larger sample points to Aspinall only having a 52/48 edge, which is nothing and makes 7/4 look a huge price. I'll go small, de Sousa was alright without ever really getting into top gear yesterday, and the form differential is a bit of a concern - but not enough to actually stop me betting it.


van Veen > Noppert - The hype on Gian is being picked up in the market now, only Hills have him at 11/8 which is close to firing - year long he's up at 46%, in 2023 he's frankly playing better darts than Noppert, and yesterday looked good as well. Spicy game, but I'll trust in the UK Open winner's ability to keep this close.
Razma > Searle - 5/2 is a big price, there's not a huge deal there on twelve month data (I'm only getting 32%), but in 2023 it does look like he's playing better stuff and increases by about 5%, which brings this into the realms of being a play. Frankly it's yesterday that makes me say no for sure, he did not look great in getting a 5-0 lead and nearly fucked it up.
Ratajski > van den Bergh - On full year data this should be in the bottom column, showing 52/48 to Dimi with Krzysztof being 11/10, but 2023? That's nearer 60% in favour of the Pole, who looked fantastic yesterday, probably the best we've seen him in some time. I won't stop you if you want to play on form. Do have to love Usher's three treble visit for nine yesterday by the way.
Kleermaker > Cross - This one is all about how you value form. Twelve months worth of data makes this a very clear no play, Kleermaker is barely over 25% and the best line I can see is the 11/4 on 365. Bring it to 2023 data however, and Martijn suddenly rockets up to 45% - similar was seen against Soutar yesterday, so it's a clear case of Kleermaker putting a mediocre 2022 behind him. That said, Cross looked very good in picking up a Pro Tour title last weekend. Pick your form poison I guess?
Smith-Neale > Heta - Really hard to pick against Heta on the Euro Tour, but at 9/2, and with Adam floating between a 25% and 30% chance regardless of sample, I think you need to at least be thinking about taking the shot at the underdog in this one. If he looked better against Roman Benecky (there's only really the two convincing legs where he held in five visits in the early stages) then I would probably say what the hell and throw out a tenth of a unit more in hope than anything.
Beaton > Smith - Another "how do you value form" question. It feels as if Ross is playing well in 2023, and he does have a Pro Tour win, but Steve has comparatively played better still - going from a sub-35 percent win chance over twelve month's of data to up around 45% in 2023. Full data makes Steve merely a neutral play at the prices offered, but if you like current form then don't let me dissuade you from making the play. He didn't do much wrong yesterday either, although if Pietreczko doesn't miss a big number he gets a match dart and we could be talking about Ricardo here - could that miss end up costing him a major appearance?
Payne > Cullen - The temptation to double down on this one is real, there's a couple of places offering better than 3/1, and Payne's only slightly below a one in three chance, although this does drop just below 30% on this year's form. If he played a bit better yesterday, I'd probably say yes, he got the W but did not look great in doing so.
Schindler > Clemens - This is very close. Martin's favoured slightly, 10/11 being available in multiple spots, and year long he projects right between 55% and 60% - rising to near the upper end of that bracket in 2023, which is counter intuitive given Gabriel's covered up injury issues seemingly making him underrated a bit. Clemens' so-so game yesterday is more ammunition for those wanting to fire on Schindler, Evans basically let him get 5-0 up and it's a bit fortunate that Gabriel was able to fall over the line.


Chisnall/Rupprecht - Pascal looked very solid yesterday (although his doubling was questionable to say the least), but this is a mismatch with Chizzy up nearer 80% than 75%. That goes the other way if you look at just 2023, which is clearly Dave apparently not playing quite as well (Rupprecht's data would obviously be unchanged as a new card holder from nowhere), but 7/2 looks just fine in terms of lines.
Clayton/Montgomery - Ross was fine in dealing with an alright Kantele (second and sixth legs excepted), but this looks more of a mismatch than the Chisnall game, with Clayton projecting near 85% whichever way you look at it, that'd imply a 1/5 line, he's 2/11, we move on quickly.
Price/Evans - Pretty much the same as the above in terms of lines, Evans is a percent or two better than Ross was, and looked very good against White yesterday, but with nothing better than 4/1 available it's a very clear and quick no play.
Rock/Brown - This could almost be pushed up into the section above, with Brown projecting in the low 20's year long but a bit over 25% on 2023 form, which possibly brings 7/2 into the equation and 4/1 worth a look - if it wasn't for yesterday. Walpen flashed but was just horribly inconsistent, frankly if he puts in another three legs like the ones he won Marcel takes that, that's just how ordinary Keegan was yesterday. Play like that again and this could be very one sided.
van Duijvenbode/Gurney - Seems like they are recognising that Daryl's playing well this year. Dirk's a touch over a two in three shot on twelve month form, but Gurney edges up a fraction past 35% on this year's stats. With prices at around 1/2 for Dirk we're not interested in this one either way.
Humphries/Dobey - Chris is at around 42% in any data set, so we're not interested in this one at all with Luke coming in at 8/11. The only thing that might make us consider anything different is the level of play Chris showed yesterday, with not a single leg won in five visits, and the four legs he lost only producting a timid 81 average. It was a bit of a doubling shitshow yesterday and if Hall had hit some and was keeping it closer in other spots we're talking about a different game here.
Gilding/van Barneveld - Almost tempted to move this up a spot. Raymond looked solid yesterday once Liam Maendl-Lawrance stopped playing like a man inspired for the first four legs (can see from that how he managed to get so many quali spots), is a touch over 50% year long and actually slightly over 55% in this year's form - this is despite seemingly doing little and Gilding winning a major.

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