Sunday 14 May 2023

Prague last 16

Apologies for no post yesterday, had an emergency extended meeting with a man about a dog in the wake of the Peterborough result on Friday which made yesterday pretty much a write off, if Friday's bets were anything to go by that may not have been the worst result, Razma just played solid enough stuff and Rydz had a real bad day at the office, let's look at the last sixteen:

Cross/Sedlacek - Almost half tempted by Karel here in the hair on hair derby, decent enough performance to dump out Cullen who wasn't doing much wrong, Rob wasn't too bad either though, I think the line should be a lot closer to 2/1 than it is, but there's only the one random book which is giving not quite the edge I'd want so I won't make an official play.

van Gerwen/Rock - Very tight one to call, Josh played better yesterday and the projections are more or less evens, albeit Michael has a decent consistency advantage down to an absurd losing average. Will go with it, 0.25u Rock 8/5 on Betfred, generally available 6/4 looks just about alright as well.

Aspinall/Searle - Nathan was possibly the pick of the round yesterday in defeating Lukeman, while Searle mainly capitalised on some duff legs from Beaton to squeeze home in one that Steve will probably want back. I've got Nathan as a favourite, maybe not by quite as much as the market indicates but with relative performances yesterday there is zero point in touching Ryan here.

Chisnall/Gilding - Oddly this one isn't on oddschecker, dunno why but it is what it is, Gilding wasn't great against van der Voort but Vincent wasn't great either, Chizzy looked pretty solid in defeating Nentjes, and looks approaching a 65% favourite in this one, such is Dave's general form. The market looks close to recognising Dave's edge based on the couple of books I've quickly checked in the absence of oddschecker but I doubt anywhere is overvaluing Gilding enough to want to look at a bet - I'd probably want at least 8/11 before I thought about a Dave bet.

van Duijvenbode/Clayton - Dirk got through a surprisingly tight match up against Vandenbogaerde, playing fine but needing every leg to get home, Jonny won what can only be described as a weird game, looking great on the Kleermaker throw but terrible on his own. I think Dirk's favoured small here, oddschecker is saying we can get evens on Dirk which is where we'd start to consider, but I'd probably need 11/10. I'm having a small personal play on the exchange at odds against but nothing on a conventional book.

Heta/Huybrechts - Damon was comfortable enough against Slevin, playing alright but not needing to do that much, while Kim was one of the few non-seeds (I think it's just him and Sedlacek?) to get into the last sixteen with a fine win over Schindler. Heta appears strongly favoured to me, it should be more 4/9 than 4/7 which is the best available price, that doesn't quite offer enough value to recommend a play.

Noppert/Wright - Danny looked really good against de Sousa, just a couple of mediocre lost legs late on the de Sousa throw, while Wright needed to come from 5-3 down to Dolan to scrape home, although he didn't play badly by any stretch of the imagination. The bookies can barely separate them, I've got Wright as a 55-60% favourite, this would normally be a play but I'm typically looking for excuses not to bet Wright when the edge we've got is marginal for a play given form and Danny playing a fantastic game yesterday is the excuse I need.

Humphries/van den Bergh - Final game, Luke got by against Ross Smith with very steady scoring in the legs he lost but only the one fifteen darter, the rest of the legs won being in six visits, while Dimitri took home the last game with a good showing against an outclassed Stefan Bellmont. Line, when vig is taken into account, looks just about perfect, I've got Luke at 56% and he's 8/11, so no interest there.

So just Rock today. How many times have we said that in the last twelve months?

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