Round 2 punts

There's not a lot there, but we'll go with these three for small plays:

0.1u Burton 23/10, Betfred offering the first two lines, this is needing less than one in three to work, so even if a projection of just into the 40% range is a few points too high for whatever reason, it's still good

0.1u Wade 2/1, here we've got about the same percentage projection. James is playing well and saying he only wins one in three seems a decent underestimate 

0.1u Whitlock evs, frankly I could go larger here, but with Simon struggling with inconsistency and getting results, I can get behind a bit of caution. That said, Pietreczko hasn't been ripping things up either...

Only other one that seems close is Chisnall, 4/6 looks a good price, Taylor's good enough that Dave should not win this two out of three times, but he's safely over 60%.

Edit - Reduced the Whitlock price to evens as I could only see 11/10 on the spread firms

Real quick round 2 projections

These take into account nothing in terms of context. Use at your own risk.

GvV 55%

Joyce 64%

Gurney 58%

Dobey 70%

Smith 80%

Noppert 53%

Searle 59%

Heta 71%

Chisnall 63%

Insufficient data on Hopp

Price 65%

van Gerwen 58%

Schindler 66%

Whitlock 68%

Bunting 70%

Littler 90%

Hildesheim day 1

Just going to post the bets here, and then any game where I was thinking about it, but chose not to fire. That's more for your purposes, if you're somewhat more bullish on a given player and just want a bit of reassurance or another data point that you're not completely nuts. If I'm not mentioning a game, assume that I'm thinking the line is close to perfect.

Plays:

0.25u Gilding 4/9, we've got enough data on Engstrom from at least the Nordic tour that the projections can be relied upon and it's giving Andrew safely over 80%. It feels like Johan should be a bit better than that, but I can't bring things based on feel that much back when 70% would be break even.

Near misses:

Kciuk > Owen - This is mostly lack of data. We can get 7/4, which is not a terrible price for a somewhat known commodity against someone like Owen. The only problem is we know nothing recently. Even the qualifier for this was three months ago. There he was generally mid to high 80's, creeping into the 90's once, which is getting enough to at least consider it.

Mansell > Ehlers - This is much tougher as Mansell is 1/4, it's lack of data on Ehlers really. What he did in the quali makes me think that he has some qualities, but not enough to hold it together to win six legs against someone as good as Mansell. Again, the quali data is old, it's even further back than the eastern Europe one referred to above.

Beaton > Slevin - We're real close on this one. Just a spot where the best line feels like it's a tick or so short of giving the edge we need on Steve, who I'm seeing as more or less bang on two in three, so 8/13 is nearly enough.

Burton > Krcmar - Kind of the same spot really. I can barely separate the two, I maybe give Stephen the odd percent over 50%. With some places offering 6/5, it might be worth a look.

Woodhouse > Edhouse - Again, very close. I'm getting this as basically 60/40, only problem is that the two of them seem polar opposites in being able to convert performance into legs and match wins, which is just enough to make me not take an otherwise interesting 4/5 line.

de Sousa > Hopp - Better than 1/2 seems kind of tasty. It's a question about Hopp really - peak Hopp should be nowhere near 2/1, but we've not seen peak Hopp since forever, the quali was a mix of B-game and stinkers, and his Challenge Tour record this year is less than inspiring.

Kuivenhoven > Wade - Yes, I know, it sounds insane. But the projection is calling it only 60/40 in favour of Wade, so if it weren't for Maik having extremely wild inconsistency stars, against the exact opponent you do not want to have that issue, then north of 2/1 would otherwise be in play. I'm kind of surprised the line is actually that tight in the first place, but it is, oh well.

Springer > Wright - It's close. The market has Niko just the wrong side of 40%. I have him at just the right side of 40%. You've got countering factors of the game being in Germany, but at the same time them loving Wright, and that this could easily be Niko's biggest win of his career if he gets it, and the pressure that might come when close to the winning line. You weigh the intangibles up.

Whitlock > Rydz - Another one where I'm looking for reasons not to bet. I'm only seeing Callan just north of 50%, so ordinarily 6/4 would be a print money situation. That said, Simon not only has much worse inconsistency numbers than Callan, but as mentioned he's having a stinker of a season in terms of getting results and there is some added pressure on him to get a win here. That's enough for me to say no, but might not be enough for you.

Suljovic > van den Bergh - I'm seeing this as a little bit closer to a 60/40 than the line only giving Suljovic a one in three shot, and we did see this exact result in the most recent Pro Tour. It wouldn't need much market shift for me to say just play it, actually getting 2/1, or just north, would do it for me.

We're not dead - early Hildesheim thoughts

With the break in the schedule (at least partially), and in the aftermath of Smithgate to our bank accounts, I needed to take a bit of a break from this. Got a bit behind, still somewhat behind (need to catch up with the SDC and CDC from last weekend along with any WDF that took place then), but I'm at least up to date on the main tour, having some minor health issues right now which is limiting the amount of time I want to spend starting at a white screen not helping matters, but the Euro Tour is back, so let's have a quick prelim look at the round one games.

Kenny/Klaasen - Nick's not really done a huge deal since getting his card back in 2023, but is in contention to get a worlds spot sitting just outside the Pro Tour places as we stand, somewhat ahead of Jelle who's been remarkable ineffective in 2024 and is being outscored by Nick, although neither have been that impressive full stop. Might be an important game for Nick come the end of the year if he wins, but a bit of a snoozer to start.

Kciuk/Owen - Krzysztof's been a bit quiet this year and I don't have any real data on him, so may need to look at the qualifier, which might be too long ago to be hugely relevant at this stage. We know he's alright, but could be a bit rusty and against a card holder that's got an outside chance of making the worlds with a moderately competent scoring record this year, merely being alright might not be enough here.

Mansell/Ehlers - Mickey's still got work to do to make the worlds, which seems surprising given his level of play in 2024 which is still pretty tight, and ought to be easily enough to handle Ehlers, who makes a second appearance of the year having got to ET2 and taking de Zwaan to a deciding leg. Feels like another one where the player with more experience should come through comfortably enough.

Engstrom/Gilding - Johan's just missed out on a worlds spot in the SDC, which is a bit of a shame, but the numbers in 2024 haven't been that threatening on a decent sample, and while Gilding is certainly not the player he used to be, he should certainly have more than enough in the tank to advance, although it is a game that he can't take too lightly by any means.

Slevin/Beaton - Dylan's never really kicked on since a very good start to 2023, and like Beaton, sits outside the worlds spots as things stand, although he is slightly behind Steve and both could easily jump up the ranks with a little bit of a run somewhere, and here'd be a good spot. Steve feels like the better player, but it doesn't look to be by an extreme amount, so this one could be a second game in a row where the "name" player is tested.

Krcmar/Burton - Finding very little to separate these two, so could be the pick of the afternoon session. Stephen's had some good results, and currently sits quite nicely inside the worlds spots and a likely retention of his tour card as a result. Krcmar on the other hand has had a right stinker in terms of results, although the level of play is not too dissimilar. At least he might have the fallback of a regional qualifier to get there? Ought to be a close one but maybe Burton has more confidence right now?

Horvat/Ratajski - Dragutin has been looking fairly decent in 2024, currently sitting in a top ten spot on the Challenge Tour but this looks to be his first cash in my database since the wrolds where he lost fairly comfortably to Mike de Decker. The numbers aren't too bad, but they're some way off those of Ratajski, who continues to remain a very dangerous player, and is probably back up to the underrated stage. Horvat isn't out of this if he can hit one of his purple patches early, but Krzysztof should be too strong.

Dolan/van Duijvenbode - Dirk's in real danger of missing a second straight major if he doesn't start getting some ranking results soon, and while this is not the best draw he could have gotten, in that Brendan is a solid established pro who is currently in the Grand Prix spots, Dolan is one of the weaker players at that level of field and one which Dirk is outperforming statistically. Could be a key game for DvD and one that might kickstart his season.

Edhouse/Woodhouse - Someone's got to nickname this the House derby, right? Both are looking good to make the Grand Prix, Ritchie's ahead in the table but it's Luke that is putting up the better numbers, and may come into this one as a slight favourite. Should be close and entertaining to kick off the evening session.

de Sousa/Hopp - Jose's possibly on the downward slide of his career, and currently probably the highest profile name not to be in a worlds spot as of right now. The performances he's putting up right now make me think he could turn it round, but time's not on his side. Hopp, a former winner of one of these, makes a welcome return, we've seen a little bit on the Challenge Tour but not a huge amount, so it'll be interesting to see where his game is at. Certainly a dangerous level opponent on his day, that's for sure.

Kuivenhoven/Wade - Maik's one of a few players in this that could do with a bit of a run to shore up worlds credentials, sitting just outside and making it probably being the difference between retaining a card or not. The numbers are fine, but he's drawn one of the more awkward opponents he could have done in Wade, who is having somewhat of a resurgence and putting up the best numbers he's done in some time, which doesn't spell great news for Kuivenhoven. It's not such a disparity that Maik is completely out of it, but he's going to have work to do in this one.

van Barneveld/Taylor - Another fun one here, Barney is Barney and we know what we're getting from him at this stage and know he's still able to mix it at a high level, but Dom has looked exceptionally strong since winning his card in the winter and is one of those in contention to possibly get a win at Pro Tour level among those who haven't got one yet. He's that good, and is probably marginally outscoring RvB right now. Will be a good one to watch.

Wright/Springer - Peter continues to look like his best game has gone, with seasonal scoring below 90 when contenders to his sort of world ranking should be at least 92, if not higher. It's still a little bit more than what Niko is doing, who's currently second on the Development Tour and will be fancying his chances in this sort of game to really make a name for himself.

Lukeman/Clayton - Martin's one of those hanging around in that range where their card is completely safe, but there's not really enough being shown to make us think ithat a push towards the top 32 is overly likely, although there's occasional flashes and the stats are just fine. Clayton's shown a little bit of a revival, and looking at his statistics there appears to be just about enough of a combination of momentum and quality to be a moderate favourite to advance here.

Rydz/Whitlock - Callan is looking relatively safe for the worlds and is showing a little bit more consistency than he has done in the past, while Simon is having a bit of a tragic 2024, not near the world's positions and numbers a good bit behind where Rydz is at, and it's only what he did in 2023 that's realistically keeping his tour card in the balance. One where I think the younger player should win, but there could be a lot of variance in this one.

Suljovic/van den Bergh - And we finish with one I think we saw in the last Pro Tour where Mensur made a bit of a run, but the Austrian vet is in a bit of a worse position than Whitlock is in terms of holding a card, but he is at least clinging on to a worlds spot at the moment. He's unlikely to be able to do too much to improve his spot here, as he's drawn one of the toughest players he could who is outscoring him comfortably and would probably need to make mistakes to let Suljovic in in this one.

Bets either later tonight, or more realistically in the morning.