ET4 day 2, now with less Ian White

Wow, that was a bit of a wild day, big averages, nine darters missed into the next country, and huge upsets. This is why I try not to bet on stupidly odds on things, with White being 1/9, the breakeven point is 90%. We not only need to be at that to recommend, we need to be above that with a decent edge, and it's so hard to be sure against an unknown. Against a bottom tier card holder who we have data on, that's a different story. Still, Rock and Rodriguez got home, Plaisier nicked us a bit more, van Peer really wasn't close but Wattimena was in the right ballpark. Not going to go through every game, just the ones where I think there's enough value for a bet or comment, if I say nothing the line isn't interesting:

Heta's close. Very close, should maybe be nearer 1/5 but Evans has shown enough flashes that I'll avoid it. Seems about the same as Searle/Lerchbacher in edge, which is 1/5, if not shorter in places.

Aspinall/Plaisier is an intriguing one. Nathan's been playing great, but through injury, Wesley has been playing great, but we lack data, the line feels about right but the data says lay Nathan. Hmm.

Williams is close. Playing well, underrated, Cullen probably overrated. Give me north of 2/1 and not 7/4 and I'd say yes.

Maybe Rowby's close to value? I can see however that the Rock value is disappearing fast, as short as 5/4 in some places against Rob Cross? Really? I mean I'll take 0.25u Rock 29/20 that is there on Ladbrokes as this looks very close to a flip and that's large enough, but come on now.

Was hoping there'd be a bit of Bunting value. Ross hasn't started the year well, Stephen has, and quietly, but with a 65/35 projection and 4/7 odds or there abouts, no thanks.

So just the one punt sadly. Be back tomorrow morning for the last sixteen.

ET4, this could be a bit of a mess

Busy weekend. There's the Women's Series, which I'm not really that interested in, then there's the WDF event in Denmark where we'll see if Hurrell can go back to back, I think there's a fairly significant UK-based lower level event run by one of the alphabet soup organisers as well, but first and foremost, the PDC rolls into Austria, and it's a bit of a cluster. There's some right random names come through, so calling a lot of these might be tough. Let's go through in running order and see what happens.

Szaganski/Jansen - First up we've got one of the newest (the? Did he win after Williams?) Pro Tour winners, against the latest Pole to get onto the main circuit, and Danny enters as about a 65/35 betting favourite. This year there's about a couple of points between them in the scoring, with Radek trailing as you might expect, but it's close enough that I'm thinking the market assessment is pretty much perfect.

Plaisier/Campbell - This should be a fun one, Wesley's on the back of a great run in the last Euro Tour, while Campbell is on the back of making a Pro Tour final, so both should be feeling confident. The bookies basically can't split them, my model's saying slightly more than 60/40 in favour of Plaisier, but that's going to be from very limited legs won - 28, but in the 52 legs I have on him, he's scoring nearly 93, while Matt's a little bit under 90. I think I'm going to take the small shot here, 0.1u Plaisier 17/20 at Coral/Laddies, if Campbell shows up on stage as he can do it may look silly, but Wes has done that literally this month.

Williams/van Peer - Loading up recent Pro Tour finalists early, Jim comes up against Berry van Peer, who's not had a bad start to the year at all with his scoring over 90 - albeit Jim's is a good couple of points higher, while Berry is in and around the likes of Clemens and Gurney, Williams is near de Sousa, Wade and Noppert. Woof. Jim is extremely consistent and Berry not so much, so while there is a difference in the overall scoring in 2022, the projections actually give Berry a fair chance. I think I'm going to take a small punt given the line, 0.1u van Peer 7/4, I get the feeling he's improving and putting things together, Jim ought to win but maybe not as much as the line suggests.

Rock/Petersen - I saw the line for this and piled on Josh, and I think I'm somewhat vindicated in trusting my gut looking at my phone in the pub without my data model. That says Rock nearly three in four, and we can get 8/13. This is a great play, especially when you consider that Devon's win percentage is inflated by wild inconsistency. 0.5u Rock 8/13

Evans/Engstrom - Johan is a known name and won the Nordic qualifier, but hasn't got any data in 2022, having not got deep in either of the Nordic events so far this season. Ricky's 4/11, that looks fair enough to me. Johan didn't break 90 in that qualifier, so with Ricky looking like he's turned a corner, this seems like a safe enough but not really worth considering a punt spot.

Razma/Rasztovits - First of the players to come through the home nation qualifier, and it's the experienced Rasztovits, who's averaged basically the same low 80's score throughout in the quali which you feel will not trouble someone of Madars' calibre. Sure, that's going to be deflated by the general low quality of the field with Suljovic and Lerchbacher having cards and moving straight in and both the good Rodriguez brothers playing the main quali, but it really does seem like the sort of spot where the market saying Razma 70/30 is correct.

Beaton/Menzies - Kind of getting the feeling we're running out of times that we'll see Steve on a big stage of any kind (at least until, or if, he tries the seniors when he eventually loses his card), so I think we need to enjoy it while it lasts, and he's been given a tough draw in Cameron, who's off the back of a decent WDF worlds run and I project as a 55/45 favourite on 2022 data. He's 4/5, guess what that works out at.

White/Gosnak - Ian's got another of the home nation qualifiers and it's a completely new name to me. Patrik had a best average of 84 in a first round game against Armin Glanzer, who I've at least heard of, then went downhill from there against Kallinger and then another complete random who seemed to completely shit the bed in the final. Ian is 1/9, meh. I don't see any realistic way that Ian loses the match, but it's just so short that I can't justify saying put a huge amount on.

Burger/Rydz - Pretty much a similar spot here, except Burger's at least a known name having played the worlds a couple of times, albeit over a decade ago in both cases now. Callan's almost as short as White is, they appear fairly similar in level with Ian maybe being a little bit more inconsistent, Dietmar actually put in a 91 average in the last qualifying round, which is enough to put me off any sort of gamble here.

Tricole/Lerchbacher - More Austrians incoming against the recent WDF world finalist. We've got a decent amount of data on Thibault, over 180 legs this year, and he's consistent but consistently not doing a tremendous amount of heavy scoring, and Zoran, on pretty limited data, is a couple of points higher. The bookies can't split them, and I don't want to try either, particularly with Zoran being at home.

Martinez/Clemens - I think this'll be the first look I get at Tony, and Clemens is going to be a very tough test and Gabriel opens as a 75/25 favourite. Clemens is a bit up and down of late and scoring right on the 90 mark, which is over three points more than the Spaniard, which isn't that much and I'm a little bit tempted at 3/1. The projections love Tony, giving him over 40%, which would normally be a no brainer, but he has wild inconsistency, having the third highest of any card holder with decent sample size, so as this being a significant game, I can avoid this, but Gabriel may not have this entirely his own way.

Noppert/Wattimena - A while ago this could have been a last 32 match in a major, now it's an opening game on the Euro Tour. Seems fairly likely that we have seen the last of the Noppert value train and that is gone forever, but has the market overadjusted? He is close to a 75/25 market favourite. He is better, yes, but I don't think he's that much better than Jermaine, who's seemingly climbing out of the nadir of his form, and this year is actually only about a point and a half behind Danny in overall scoring, with a bit better consistency. Model says 60/40 - I could believe this, and will take the shot, 0.1u Wattimena 14/5, the risk/reward to go small here seems a no brainer.

de Zwaan/Suljovic - The middle of the evening session is packed with big names and we've got another Dutchie looking to climb back from bad form and he's up against the ultimate home favourite in Mensur. This projects at around the same line with Mensur being 60/40 ahead - there's less than a point between them and both are very consistent, Jeffrey especially so, although that might be a little bit down to not finishing his won legs that quickly and he's the second name off the list with a winning average below 90 when sorting by overall average. Mensur is 4/7, so there's not the edge, but I'm not putting Suljovic in any multiples.

Bunting/Sedlacek - Didn't these two play each other fairly recently? I don't know. Karel's back again, Bunting has seemingly been a bit under the radar in 2022, but is scoring well enough that he's slap bang in the middle of 60% and two in three win chances. Tough draw for Sedlacek, well, both really. Karel's a little bit undervalued, but not by much.

Claydon/Sturm - What on earth do we do with this. Claydon is scoring 86. Sturm is basically unknown who had a good 5-0 sweep with an 87 average, but then dropped below 75 in each of the last two rounds, albeit getting no help from his opponents. Brett is 1/4. Let's just avoid this altogether.

Labanauskas/Rodriguez - Final game, and Darius might be in a tough spot here against Rowby on home soil who has been outscoring him by more than a couple of points this season. Bookies can't split them, I don't see why as I'm thinking Rowby should grab this maybe two in three. 0.25u Rodriguez evs

2022 Second/Third Division Darts results

Division 2:

Luke Humphries 10.30

Dirk van Duijvenbode 10.13

Ryan Searle 9.91

Damon Heta 9.78

Dimitri van den Bergh 9.72

Dave Chisnall 9.66

Rob Cross 9.08

Chris Dobey 8.56

Krzysztof Ratajski 7.63

Jose de Sousa 5.21

Division 3:

Martin Schindler 13.41

Ryan Meikle 11.33

Keane Barry 9.22

Callan Rydz 9.12

Rusty Jake Rodriguez 8.75

Rowby John Rodriguez 8.50

William Borland 8.17

Adam Hunt 7.23

Ted Evetts 7.17

Steve Lennon 7.11

Results:

PC1 - Ryan Searle 6-1 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Luke Humphries 8-4 Ryan Searle (2), Rowby John Rodriguez 6-3 Martin Schindler (3)

PC2 - No games

PC3 - Keane Barry 6-2 Adam Hunt (3)

PC4 - Krzsyztof Ratajski 6-5 Dave Chisnall (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 7-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Ryan Meikle 6-4 Callan Rydz (3)

ET1 - No games

UK Open - Ryan Searle 10-8 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Ryan Meikle 6-0 Rowby John Rodriguez (3)

ET2 - Rob Cross 6-3 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 6-1 Ryan Searle (2)

PC5 - Rob Cross 6-4 Luke Humphries (2), Damon Heta 7-4 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Adam Hunt 6-5 Callan Rydz (3)

PC6 - Martin Schindler 6-5 Callan Rydz (3)

PC7 - Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-5 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Rusty Jake Rodriguez 6-5 Martin Schindler (3)

PC8 - Adam Hunt 6-3 Steve Lennon (3), Martin Schindler 6-0 Rowby John Rodriguez (3)

PC9 - No games

PC10 - Damon Heta 6-4 Dave Chisnall (2), Jose de Sousa 6-5 Luke Humphries (2), Damon Heta 6-3 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Rowby John Rodriguez 6-2 Ted Evetts (3)

PC11 - Rob Cross 6-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Ryan Searle 7-6 Rob Cross (2)

PC12 - Luke Humphries 6-3 Dave Chisnall (2), Ryan Searle 6-5 Luke Humphries (2), Ryan Searle 7-2 Damon Heta (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 8-7 Ryan Searle (2)

PC13 - No games

ET3 - No games

ET4 - No games

ET5 - Dave Chisnall 6-4 Damon Heta (2), Ryan Searle 6-5 Dave Chisnall (2)

PC14 - Dave Chisnall 6-3 Krzysztof Ratajski (2)

PC15 - Rusty Jake Rodriguez 6-2 Adam Hunt (3), Ryan Meikle 6-3 Steve Lennon (3), Callan Rydz 6-2 Rusty Jake Rodriguez (3)

ET6 - Luke Humphries 6-4 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Luke Humphries 7-4 Jose de Sousa (2), Luke Humphries 8-5 Rob Cross (2)

ET7 - Rob Cross 6-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Damon Heta 6-5 Ryan Searle (2), Rob Cross 7-4 Damon Heta (2), Luke Humphries 8-7 Rob Cross (2)

ET8 - Dave Chisnall 6-3 Jose de Sousa (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-5 Dave Chisnall (2)

PC16 - Luke Humphries 6-2 Chris Dobey (2), Krzysztof Ratajski 6-1 Damon Heta (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-4 Luke Humphries (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-2 Dimitri van den Bergh (2)

PC17 - Chris Dobey 6-2 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2), Martin Schindler 6-3 Ted Evetts (3)

ET9 - Damon Heta 6-3 Dimitri van den Bergh (2)

PC18 - Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-5 Chris Dobey (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-2 Luke Humphries (2)

PC19 - Luke Humphries 6-5 Dave Chisnall (2)

PC20 - Martin Schindler 6-3 Adam Hunt (3)

PC21 - Damon Heta 6-3 Krzysztof Ratajski (2)

Matchplay - Rob Cross 11-9 Chris Dobey (2), Jose de Sousa 11-8 Rob Cross (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 10-8 Ryan Searle (2)

PC22 - Ryan Searle 6-2 Luke Humphries (2), Krzysztof Ratajski 6-5 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Martin Schindler 6-3 William Borland (3)

PC23 - Chris Dobey 6-3 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2), Martin Schindler 6-3 William Borland (3)

PC24 - Rob Cross 6-4 Jose de Sousa (2), Luke Humphries 6-3 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Rob Cross 7-4 Chris Dobey (2), Rob Cross 8-3 Luke Humphries (2)

ET10 - Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-3 Chris Dobey (2)

ET11 - Luke Humphries 6-3 Dave Chisnall (2), Krzysztof Ratajski 6-5 Rob Cross (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 6-3 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 7-3 Jose de Sousa (2)

ET12 - Dave Chisnall 6-2 Jose de Sousa (2), Jose de Sousa 6-4 Ryan Searle (2), Martin Schindler 6-3 Rusty Jake Rodriguez (3)

Grand Prix - Dimitri van den Bergh 8-6 Dave Chisnall (2), Chris Dobey 6-2 Luke Humphries (2)

ET13 - Damon Heta 6-4 Chris Dobey (2)

PC25 - Dave Chisnall 6-2 Luke Humphries (2)

PC26 - Damon Heta 8-4 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2)

PC27 - Callan Rydz 6-5 Steve Lennon (3)

PC28 - Luke Humphries 6-1 Chris Dobey (2), Damon Heta 6-0 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2)

European Championship - Luke Humphries 6-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Luke Humphries 10-6 Rayn Searle (2), Chris Dobey 10-7 Dave Chisnall (2), Chris Dobey 10-5 Jose de Sousa (2)

PC29 - Dave Chisnall 6-4 Chris Dobey (2), Martin Schindler 6-4 Keane Barry (3)

PC30 - Dave Chisnall 6-1 Chris Dobey (2), Chris Dobey 6-3 Jose de Sousa (2), Callan Rydz 6-5 Steve Lennon (3), Martin Schindler 6-2 Callan Rydz (3)

Grand Slam - Dirk van Duijvenbode 5-3 Rob Cross (2), Luke Humphries 5-1 Ryan Searle (2)

PC Finals - Krzysztof Ratajski 6-1 Jose de Sousa (2), Luke Humphries 10-7 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 10-9 Ryan Searle (2), Callan Rydz 10-8 Keane Barry (3)

Worlds - Chris Dobey 13-11 Rob Cross (2), Jose de Sousa 16-15 Ryan Searle (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 12-7 Krzysztof Ratajski (2)

Bit of a belated ET3 roundup

Been extremely busy, so taking a bit of a break over the last week. Huge congrats to both the finalists, Luke Humphries for yet another stepping stone to what many think will be an inevitable major, that semi final was just spectacular, and also to Martin Lukeman who overcame many hugely underrated opponents and has thrown himself right into the picture for all the TV majors. Will start with a quick FRH rankings check:

1 Peter Wright

2 Gerwyn Price

3 Michael Smith

4 Michael van Gerwen

5 James Wade

6 Jonny Clayton

7 Rob Cross

8 Gary Anderson

9 Jose de Sousa

10 Danny Noppert

11 Ryan Searle (UP 1)

12 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)

13 Luke Humphries (UP 1)

14 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)

15 Krzysztof Ratajski

16 Nathan Aspinall (UP 1)

17 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)

18 Damon Heta (UP 1)

19 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 3)

20 Mervyn King

I didn't post an update after the last Pro Tour weekend before Munich, so there's three tournaments worth of movement to look at here. Searle moves ahead of Cullen having reached a final (his previous bink was incorporated into the last set of rankings). Humphries we expected. Chizzy sliding is a little bit more of an odd one until you look at who has passed him - the two winners from the last Pro Tour weekend, and then Heta getting a semi final in the Euro Tour as well as another deep Pro Tour run, while Chisnall had a fairly quiet couple of weekends.

Lower down, Schindler is now into the top 40 with Durrant slipping out as expected. Lukeman's final puts him into the top 75, in a little group of players with Keegan Brown and Scott Waites who've also not had a bad couple of weeks. Matt Campbell jumps into the top 80, while Wesley Plaisier re-enters the list at #166. For those interested, the list currently contains 289 players who've made ranking money in the last two years, James Hubbard currently occupying the last spot.

We've got the Scottish Open going on right now, looks like a pretty big field so will keep an eye on it and continue to build non-PDC data to help us (was hoping to see more of Littler but he's gone out extremely early just now), there's a whole bunch of Euro Tour qualifiers going on right now, then we'll tool up for Austria - it looks like an exceptionally strong set of Pro Tour qualifiers with eleven PDC ranking winners, along with several more that have made finals, you've got Suljovic and Lerchbacher getting free passes to the event, Sedlacek's going to be back again, and the real fun thing is that van Gerwen and Clayton are seeded in such a way that they would meet in the last sixteen - the top half containing Price, Aspinall, Humphries, Dolan, MvG, Clayton, Cullen and DvD means this could easily open up for Wright or any number of players in the other half.

Will look to update (start?) the Second/Third Division Darts rankings, as I've put it off for too long and there's far too much to catch up on already.

ET3 quarters

Nice little earner on Humphries, which takes us back to a small profit for the tournament - we're down to eight players now, let's have a quick scan:

Lukeman/Schindler - Huge game for both, market seems to have Schindler as a solid, better than two in three favourite. That seems ever so slightly too short, I don't see Schindler up at 65%, and in 2022, it's closer to 60% than 65%. That said, with the vig in the market I can't recommend a play on Lukeman, particularly in what should be a charged atmosphere which to the best of my knowledge would be new to him.

Heta/Clayton - Why is Clayton the favourite here? Damon's really fucking good, and he's 6/4 in all markets? I've got him as a small favourite over six month data, in 2022 it grows from 54% to 59%. That's a big edge and I'm making the play, 0.25u Heta 6/4, there's always a risk he does something like he did in the UK Open at this stage, but I don't think anyone can realistically say Clayton is a significantly better player that he takes it 60% of the time.

Brown/van Gerwen - Nice run for Keegan, but it surely comes to an end here. I don't see him as having much more than a one in five shot, lowering to one in six when we look at more form-based samples, and he's not exactly put up amazing stats here outside of his first round win against Hunt. 1/5 looks to be a very fair price.

Humphries/Plaisier - Can the dream run for Wesley continue? Humphries is going to be a fairly large roadblock if it is to be the case, with Luke coming in at the 75-80% range for all games. The price is a bit shorter than Dirk was, but Humphries seems like an extremely similar player to Dirk over six months, in 2022 he's finishing legs a couple of points per turn better, so maybe it's fair enough? If I could get, say, 7/2 on Plaisier I'd take the flier, but we can't even get 3/1 right now, so I'll keep an eye out but not recommend a play.

ET3 round 3

Bit of carnage yesterday with Price withdrawing, Wright going down and six other seeds dropping. We thought at the outset that a lot of qualifiers might come through and that's exactly what happened. As such it's a bit disappointing to go 0-3 on bets, but it wasn't too bad, Peer just blew it in leg seven, Krcmar did everything he had to apart from go out in fifteen in the decider, while Clayton was basically unplayable. Eight matches, let's rattle through them:

Barry/Lukeman - Huge opportunity for both here, appears very close on my ratings, which give Barry 53% chances regardless of timeframe - he is 8/11 which is correctly showing him as a small favourite and the vig makes no bets possible here. Should be a good one to start off.

Schindler/Searle - Feels like we've seen this matchup a few times recently, could just be me imagining it (I know Searle did own someone that we often bet on in a recent Pro Tour, was that Schindler?) I guess. Market favours Searle slightly better than 60/40, in the last six months that appears close to perfect, but just in 2022 Ryan actually projects to winning just over two in three - although this doesn't take into account Schindler's extremely good consistency score (and, by contrast, Searle's fairly high value). There wasn't enough edge to bet before that so it's an easy pass.

Waites/Heta - Scott pulled out the big upset yesterday and it only gets slightly easier, if that, against Heta, who saw off Barney by the one break in ten. 1/3 might actually be small value for Damon here, I'd have thought it to be 1/4 based on the last six months, if you look at just 2022, maybe it should be even shorter, but Waites has got to be the most confident he's been in a long time after yesterday's result, so I think I can avoid it.

Clayton/Hopp - Jonny was excellent against Chisnall in round two, while Hopp looked alright against Dimitri, but maybe not quite at his best. Didn't need to be with the Belgian lacking a bit of scoring. Clayton is a very short 1/5, on 2022 form that looks just about spot on. Expand the data set a little and it could even possibly be a little bit shorter.

Razma/Brown - This has opened up nicely for these (at least for one round), Razma dumped out de Sousa and Brown put away Rydz, it's a tricky one to call, over the last six months I've got Brown as a moderate (say mid 50% range) favourite, whereas in 2022 I've got Razma having the edge, but by a smaller margin. Wouldn't want to pick a winner here, with the bookies being unable to split them either, we can simply move on and ignore it.

van Gerwen/Cross - Michael needed a bit of a get out of jail card against Dobey, 5-3 down but got away with it, Chris' best chance coming in leg nine where given eighteen darts he could only generate two darts at double (which he obviously missed). Cross was in a small bit of trouble against Sedlacek early but powered away despite missing a lot of doubles. Market doesn't quite have van Gerwen as a two in three favourite, I see 62% in the last six months which seems about right, but only 57% in 2022, 13/8 Cross isn't quite long enough to consider this, but if we had to bet, it would be on Rob.

Smith/Humphries - Another game that should be fun, Smith maybe a little bit fortunate to have been gifted the key break by van Peer, Humphries was admittedly not at his best against de Zwaan but did enough to move through, and the market has these two very close, Smith at around the 55/45 favourite. It's flippy over the last six months, but in 2022 Luke becomes a solid favourite - just over 60%. I think there is enough here to take a poke, 0.25u Humphries 11/10, is actually slightly longer on betway.

Plaisier/van Duijvenbode - Talked about Dirk's game earlier, but Wesley got another big scalp in Cullen, not quite the blockbuster averages we saw in round one, but there were 14 missed darts at double which will have dragged things down a bit. Dirk's 4/9, that feels about right, we're obviously still lacking data on Plaisier but he's shown enough that grabbing this one in three seems a reasonable projection.

That's it, should be back later for the quarters.

ET3 round 2 evening session

We continue...

van den Bergh/Hopp - Max came through against Soutar, not the most convincing of performances however and will need to step his game up against Dimitri, this feels like one where Dimitri being a best price of 1/4 is very accurate. Going to be an extremely tough game for Hopp here. But hey, with the German crowd, who knows?

Heta/van Barneveld - Raymond looked OK yesterday but he wasn't really tested so hard to read anything into this, Heta is actually shorter than 1/2 so his game is being respected - or maybe the market thinks Barney is a spent force? Looks fine though, got Damon at 70% on the last six months form and over 75% in 2022. Should still be a good game.

Clemens/Lukeman - Martin was a bit up and down yesterday, didn't hit the quality we knew he can produce, but as Gawlas concentrated all his good arrows into three legs, it didn't really matter. Clemens is up next having been promoted into the seeds and is only around a 60/40 favourite, even closer in some markets. That seems spot on to be honest, whatever sample I look at Lukeman is just a shade better than 40% to claim the match, so will move on to game four.

Price/Barry - Which will be a fun one. Gerwyn is Gerwyn, questionable new walk on and everything, Keane was in, shall we say, an ugly match against Lukas Wenig with missed doubles galore. Price is typically 2/7, that looks around the right ballpark. Six month data, maybe it's a little long, 2022 data, maybe it's a little short, split the difference and it's fine.

Wright/Waites - The second player trading for the world number one spot up next, up against Scott Waites who only allowed Horvat one dart at double (on the end of a 160 out lol) despite averaging under 90. Wright is even shorter than Price is in the previous game, looking at the last six months and Waites was hovering over 20% so more or less right at the point where 7/2 is a fair price, but he drops off a bit once you cut out the tail end of 2021. Can't bet this one.

van Gerwen/Dobey - 30 dart breaks lol. Dobey looked OK but nothing more, he comes in at 2/1 against MvG. Honestly, if you gave me this price straight after the worlds I'd take it, but since then, van Gerwen's form has increased and Dobey has tailed off slightly to the point where the line looks spot on, if he'd been truly convincing yesterday then maybe, but 22 missed darts at a double, albeit most of them in one leg, jesus.

Searle/Baggish - Another missed double fest in round one, Danny missed 18, Junghans also missed a bunch, averages both under 80, it's not a good omen facing someone with the quality and form of Searle, who's rated at 83% over the last six months, and in 2022, the projections basically say Baggish wins one in about 15. Ouch. Do I want to take 1/5? I mean it looks safe enough, but there's enough margin for weird stuff to happen that I don't want to lump on. Your mileage may vary.

Smith/van Peer - Final game, Berry got into a surprisingly good game against Larsson, but Smith is an enormous step up and he's the same sort of silly odds on price that we've seen a few times tonight. Except wait, hold on. Over the last six months, Berry projects to win 30%. In 2022, it's 40%. What the heck? I can't see any consistency issues (he's within a quarter of a point of Smith) and I can't see any obvious data errors. Seems to be worth the flyer given a 95 average yesterday. 0.1u van Peer 3/1

ET3 round 2 tips

Small profit yesterday. Barney and van Peer won as expected - Larsson was a fair bit better than we thought, but Wilson was clearly struggling, maybe we could have gone larger in retrospect. Hopp got the job done, Hunt not so much, while Meikle... he wasn't that far off. Missed a dart at double in the first, looks like he should have got more having 116 left with Chizzy not on a finish but seems like he got a bounceout. Then in leg four he had half a chance missing a dart for a twelve. Get just one of those and it's 5-5. Oh well. Looks like oddschecker is shitting the bed again so going to have to jank it up with a bunch of tabs open, let's see.

Rydz/Brown - Keegan didn't look too bad in an easy win yesterday and gets another north east player first up, Callan is rightly the favourite but maybe slightly too short, we can't get 1/2 and I'm only seeing him with low 60% winrates regardless of sample used. 15/8 on Betfair is hence moderately tempting, but I don't think there's quite the edge there.

Cross/Sedlacek - Touched on this one slightly earlier given we know Karel got a bye, he's clearly playing very well and in my eyes should nick this one out of three times. The best we're getting is 13/5 though, which really isn't the odds I'm after. Is this the market overreacting to Sedlacek's form? Continuing to sleep on Cross? A bit of both? Regardless, we're not betting this one and Rob can definitely not be considered for any accas.

van Duijvenbode/Krcmar - Boris got home first game in a little bit of a scrappy affair against Woodhouse, and faces a much tougher opponent who is in form and priced as such, a best price of 2/5 is short. Longer data I see Boris having 35% chances, in 2022 data it's up to 40%. I think with Hills being on the DvD hype train more than most we can take a small stab here, 0.1u Krcmar 9/4, just small as if Dirk continues where he left off last weekend he may well be unplayable, but Boris with confidence, which he should have given he's got a win, can be a handful.

de Sousa/Razma - Madars won a swingy game against Huybrechts, capping it off with a showpiece 150 out to win the match, and now faces Jose, and can we say of late that he's that much better than Kim is? We can get as much as 9/4 on him, is that worth the shot? Actually, not really. Longer form puts Jose at 70%, more like one in three on this season, so I'll pass on it.

Cullen/Plaisier - Wesley moved through with the performance of the round, a 104 average is certainly going to draw some attention. If someone can play like that, we're definitely not interested in Cullen at 1/4, question is do we want to go the other way? It's tempting, it has to be said, but a big reason why a lot of associates are associates is consistency, do we really think he's going to back it up? Good luck if he does.

Humphries/de Zwaan - Jeffrey came through an entertaining game against VvdV with both in the mid 90's and Jeffrey needing to come from 5-4 down - although Vincent completely shit the bed on throw at that point, leaving 283 after twelve is saying "break me please" and de Zwaan did. This should be another entertaining game played at a great pace, but I think what looked to be Humphries at a prohibitively short price is actually accurate - over 6 months worth of data I only see Jeffrey at 22% chances. This season it's even worse. It's hard to imagine that given the quality of player that we know de Zwaan is and the performance he put in yesterday, but that's where we're at, Luke is actually quite good.

Dolan/Schindler - Martin easily dealt with Wattimena, got up early then after a small fightback powered away to a 6-3 win and now faces Brendan, who's always going to be a tough opponent but one whose pace I think ought to benefit Martin somewhat. Market says pick em, over the four books I'm looking at, we can't get evens on either player in any of them. Longer data favours Dolan ever so slightly, 2022 data actually favours Dolan a bit more where we might even consider a bet, but that seems counterintuitive and there is a fair bit of a consistency differential here. Schindler, of all players who've played over 200 legs in 2022, has the fourth best consistency rating, which for new readers, I'm defining as taking away the scoring in legs lost from the scoring in legs won. Only Scott Williams, Soutar and de Zwaan are better there (so, looking at that, maybe Jeffrey has a bit more of a chance in the previous game?)

Clayton/Chisnall - Kind of surprised this one didn't get picked up for the evening session, but it does look a fairly stacked card. Dave did what he had to do, talked about the game earlier, let's get straight into the market, Clayton is shorter than 1/2. Wow. I see Dave as having 36% on six months data, which indicates that the line is not backable on that sample, albeit Clayton favoured, but in 2022, it's 44%. So 2/1 on someone with that winning chance who hit >50% doubles, six maxes and a 98 average yesterday? Yes please, 0.1u Chisnall 2/1

I will post the evening session up in another post in the next hour, conscious we're close to the off so want to get the tips out even though we don't touch the first two games.

ET3 round 1 tips

Krcmar/Woodhouse - Seems a genuinely tight one to call. The markets slightly favour Krcmar, I think this is fair based on six month's data, in 2022 it leans towards possibly being small value, but not enough to consider a bet, especially considering Krcmar's stage record.

Larsson/van Peer - We've got very little to go on for Larsson, but what we do recall is that he doesn't really score strongly enough to have a massive chance at this level. Berry scoring at 89 ought to be more than enough. At the odds we're offered though? I think it's worth the shot, 0.25u van Peer 8/15

Lukeman/Gawlas - This is priced up surprisingly closely, but checking the data, it seems Gawlas might be a bit closer to Lukeman than I first thought, meaning that the generally available 8/11 isn't the slam dunk bet I thought it would be. Oh well.

Plaisier/Williams - Jim's a huge favourite here and I basically have nothing recent on Wesley, his Q-School numbers don't actually look too bad, whether they'll convert to a result against someone as steady as Jim, I don't know. 13/5 is fairly tempting, but with Jim playing as he is, I'll pass, this might be closer than the market expects though.

Brown/Hunt - Interesting mix of one player maybe returning to form and another being off the boil. Keegan is shorter than 1/2, which seems really one sided, on 2022 data I've got Adam at over 40%, but the last six months the line is made out to be fair? Urgh, that's not the endorsement I was looking for. 2022 data indicates a small flyer seems fine, 0.1u Hunt 2/1, Keegan might be playing better but there's still a bit of pressure to get big results like this, he is after all some way off retaining his card.

Horvat/Waites - Going to need to look to Q-School data for Horvat here, and his numbers are not convincing. We know he can have a great spell where he'll kill two legs in 25 darts or something like that, but it's the consistency that's always been the problem. Waites I think should be far too solid, I could go with the same logic as the van Peer bet, it is a similar price, but we know Dragutin is a bit better than Daniel is, so will pass.

O'Shea/Dobey - Chris is a huge favourite. Coming in at over 80% on six months data, over 75% on 2022 data. I was kind of hoping for it to be a little bit tighter given Dobey has been a little bit up and down, but there's nothing there to justify a punt.

Huybrechts/Razma - Six month data puts Huybrechts at 63%, 2022 at 59%, that's kind of what I'd expect, Kim's the stronger all round player but outside of a couple of blips Razma seems to have started off 2022 well. With the Latvian at 7/4, we can't really consider punting one way or another as the edges needed are simply absent.

Soutar/Hopp - Similarly priced match here with Soots coming in as the favourite, Max is needing results, and on six months data he is projected to win basically one in three exactly, so 6/4 is not a tempter. However, on 2022 data, he improves to 45%, so trending very much in the right direction. I'm going to take a small stab here, 0.1u Hopp 6/4, this is very much speculative based on short form data, but he's shown some signs, clearly plays better on stage and in Germany as well, so there's a few things that are working in Max's favour in this one.

Baggish/Junghans - We've got nothing on Thomas, Baggish is 2/5, Danny is not putting up anywhere near the numbers where we can think that this is in any way safe - despite Junghans not averaging over 80 at Q-School. Could be a game where weird things happen and I want no piece of it.

Barry/Wenig - We've got enough data on Lukas to get a decent read, he's just not a high enough scorer to realistically threaten Keane in this one. Five visit percentage is extremely low, although he'll finish in six a lot of the time. That's not going to cut it, Barry is around 70-75% in the market which feels right.

de Zwaan/van der Voort - Big year for Jeffrey this, and he enters this game against van der Voort as a small underdog. I get 40% on six months data and 43% on 2022 data, so 13/10 isn't an exciting punt, then again Vincent is in no way a big enough favourite that we want to take the weak odds offered.

Schindler/Wattimena - Maybe Jermaine has got a bit more of a chance than advertised here. My six month stats call this a coinflip, and 2022 data still gives him more than 45%. Do we want to take 6/4? I'm thinking not, this seems like one where the confidence of the two players will count for a bit more than the raw numbers, the crowd will be into it at this stage, I might regret passing on Wattimena but it's what I'm going to do.

van Barneveld/Wilson - I'm close to taking Barney on this one. I see straight in the middle of 75% and 80%, Unibet have 2/5 while most places have 1/3. Actually, I will go for that price - 0.25u van Barneveld 2/5, that only needs 71% to break even, we have a fair bit more than that, and there's reason to believe James isn't at 100%. It's only Unibet having it a bit closer than others that is generating the bet, don't take any shorter.

Meikle/Chisnall - This is priced way off, Meikle on longer form has over a 40% shot and is 38% on 2022 data, 0.1u Meikle 11/4, Ryan has too much quality and will show it often enough to take this price.

That's the lot, back later for round two.

Ten things to watch for in ET3

Ah, this is the one that starts on a Saturday, so we've already got a draw out and can have a bit of a look in advance. Will posts up bets this evening, possibly Saturday morning. Will hold off on new FRH rankings until after Munich is done, but I do hope that if anyone read the previous post, they were able to pick out Aspinall last weekend and get a nice payday. So, without further ado, what to watch for:

1) Can anyone stop MvG reaching the final?

Looks to be a much easier half than the top half which has got both the other big two, Clayton, Heta and quite a few of the more dangerous qualifiers. Cross will be a potential last 16 danger (if he gets through Sedlacek which is in no way guaranteed), but this looks like a great chance for van Gerwen to add to his Euro Tour total. Ironically the toughest match could be against a possible Chris Dobey first up if he beats John O'Shea, assuming Dobey gets a couple of dodgy weeks out of his system.

2) Who out of Krcmar and Woodhouse will win?

A little bit of an odd one for number 2, but this one jumped off the page to me. Two players in the lower reaches of the top 64, who we know are capable of putting up great performances but have yet to kick on, particularly Boris in stage events. I'm not sure who'll take this, but it's going to be a fascinating tie to watch.

3) Can Hopp save his card?

Max is in a world of trouble to try to sort this one out, barely holding it last season and down twenty grand in the race as it stands. Soutar's a tough first round ask, but maybe not playing quite as well as he was twelve months ago, so it's not an impossible ask for Hopp on home soil, and Dimitri in round two isn't the hardest seed he could potentially play. Making bank at these Euro Tours seems to be the only real way for him to avoid Q-School.

4) Can Schindler make a run?

Another German thing to watch out for, Martin's been getting deeper and deeper into Pro Tours, and doesn't have the worst of draws - Wattimena's getting a little bit better and can be dangerous, but Dolan as a seed in round two is by no means the worst, and while Searle can be an awfully tricky opponent, it is not out of Martin's capabilities to win that one.

5) Meikle v Chisnall should be fun

This is another first round game that jumps off the page. Dave we know can play incredible stuff, but has dropped a touch under the radar since his worlds semi final, while Ryan is also an incredibly capable player, this is one of those where if they both click we could see a 105 average lose. It's also one where if Ryan doesn't turn up and Dave misses some doubles, they could both be down in the eighties. We just don't know what we'll get.

6) Can Sedlacek do anything?

Karel's in the middle of an amazing purple patch right now where he's made a bunch of Euro Tours and looks very threatening, and is the recipient of a bye after the confusing withdrawal of Krzysztof Ratajski, so will go straight into a second round game against Rob Cross, with the winner to play MvG (probably). This is a real chance to set out a marker as to how good his game really is against a multiple major champion, with the opportunity to then face one of the best in the world. It'd be great to see.

7) What will Baggish do?

I am not sure whether this is Danny's first Euro Tour, but I think it is. He's always seemed a bit more comfortable on the stage and hasn't truly replicated what he's capable of there on the floor - so this ought to be a decent spot with a favourable draw against the associate qualifier Junghans, who's not an unfamiliar name, but not one I've seen for a bit of time to be honest.

8) Could it be Smith's time?

I talked first about how van Gerwen could easily walk the bottom half, but let's talk about his opposing quarter briefly. This looks like a really good opportunity for him. As the number 3 seed, he has either Larsson, who won the Nordic/Baltic qualifier, or van Peer first up, which has to be said to be fairly favourable, then the other seed in his quarter are Humphries directly opposite, then Cullen or van Duijvenbode. None of these are gimmies (particularly if Dirk plays like he did when winning another Pro Tour where he looked unstoppable), but it is avoiding the truly big names, and they are the sorts of games where if Smith is to take himself seriously, he should be putting away. Then, from the semi finals onwards, who knows?

9) Any other qualifiers to watch?

Martin Lukeman's been making a bit of a name for himself and we've picked up on him a few times, he gets the exciting young Czech, Adam Gawlas (surely their country finally wins a game at the World Cup this year), then gets the promoted #16 seed in Gabriel Clemens. Decent opportunity. Keane Barry gets Lukas Wenig then Gerwyn Price if he gets through that, you would think Keane gets through and could give Price a solid test. Huybrechts against Razma with the winner to face de Sousa is interesting, de Zwaan's shown a little bit of a return but a Dutch derby against van der Voort is extremely tricky for a first round game. Jim Williams doesn't have a bad draw, getting perennial associate qualifier Wesley Plaisier before Joe Cullen. I think most of the others that could do damage have already been mentioned.

10) Seeds in danger?

Dolan against Schindler or Wattimena has to be one. Clemens against Lukeman is another tough ask. Heta isn't a name you'd normally expect to see in this sort of list, but assuming Barney beats James Wilson (is he injured again?), then it's not the sort of name you can take for granted. Clayton is not a guaranteed win against either Chisnall or Meikle. If Soutar or Hopp show their best, either could take out Dimitri. As mentioned in the above paragraph, de Sousa could easily struggle against Huybrechts or Razma. van Gerwen against a peak Dobey is one that ought to be much, much closer than the market would say, question is if we get a peak Dobey. Cross can't take Sedlacek lightly. Dirk's looking really good of late, but would not be a guaranteed win against either opponent. This could be one where we see lots of seeds fall, maybe half the field or close to a European Tour record, would need quite a few things to fall into place, but the chances are there.

Check back within 24 hours for first round tips. Also huge congrats to Neil Duff and Beau Greaves for closing out the WDF titles, there were some great games in the later stages that are well worth viewing.

Each way value 2 - Electric Boogaloo

One thing I did do before PC9 kicked off was to copypasta the Betfair market, what I'll do now is scan through and tier the players and give some thoughts as to the respective values. I think it was mostly a full field barring Suljovic, who I assume would be priced up in and around the 100/1 stage at this point, so I'll group him in that conversation.

>10% chance

6/1 van Gerwen, 7/1 Price, Wright, 8/1 Clayton

You're probably not going to be picking any of these each way, but with the general parity that's in the field right now, either of van Gerwen and Price look decent value. Wright and Clayton maybe not so much, I've stated a few times that Clayton's best work has been in unranked events, as such he may be undervalued, but he's basically on a par with Wright over the last six months, so I'll drag Wright out from the "probably value" conversation.

>4% chance

16/1 Smith, 20/1 van den Bergh, Cullen, Anderson, 22/1 Heta

Heta seems like the clear value out of this selection. He remains in the top five of scoring across the last six months and is a threat to go deep in any event he enters, so he'll remain on our safe each way list. Of the rest, Smith and Anderson have basically the same stats, Ando slightly better so be inclined to lean that way of the two - DvdB is about half a point behind these and Cullen's a further half point back. Maybe Joe's at the stage where he is overrate, van den Bergh the same?

>2% chance

25/1 Cross, 33/1 Wade, Humphries, Searle, 40/1 Rydz, Noppert, Aspinall

We're now getting to the stage where you're going to want to start to look at the draw and lean towards those players that are in favourable quarters - of those big four, it's often the case that two of them are in the same quarter given the relative position of Clayton, leaving one of the quarters potentially easier - and one harder. Aspinall is the pick of these despite being the longest, he is actually up at third in scoring in the last six months now which is quite remarkable, although we have noticed him picking up form at the back end of 2021. Cross is also top 10, and you can throw a blanket over Rydz, Humphries and Searle in the top sixteen. Noppert is right on their heels, but Wade is a fair bit further back. These don't seem too badly priced, although Wade seems unbackable at that price.

>1% chance

50/1 de Sousa, Ratajski, Chisnall, Dobey, van Duijvenbode, 66/1 Gurney, Lewis, 80/1 Barry, Bunting, Schindler

There's a real hotch-potch of names here of varying quality, form and history, so let's pick through the best bets. Dobey of these seems clear, he is only behind MvG, Price, Aspinall and Heta in the last six months so keep piling on (although he's had a bit of a downturn in the last couple of weeks by the looks of things). Ratajski remains in and around the top sixteen levels of scoring, with Schinder and van Duijvenbode at around the same marker. This kind of shows how much the market has caught up with Martin. All of these seem clearly better value than a Cullen or a Noppert. Bunting's a little bit further back, de Sousa and Chisnall are about half a point back again, so pick Bunting of those three clearly, that leaves Gurney, Lewis and Barry. The first two are identical in scoring (albeit with different profiles, Adie being more inconsistent) at a step below Bunting, so are easily avoided despite Daryl appearing to be on an upsurge, then that just leaves Barry, who while he has all the potential in the world is clearly overly hyped at this stage and you can't consider him.

>0.5% chance

100/1 White, van Barneveld, Clemens, Whitlock, Dolan, King, chuck Suljovic in here, 150/1 Ross Smith, Hempel, Williams, Hughes, O'Connor, Joyce, van der Voort, Soutar, Huybrechts, Evans, Rock, 175/1 Scutt

Here you're looking for a combination of decent recent form, a good draw, and ideally having been there before. Scanning down the scoring as to where we first see anyone on this list, Rock and Dolan are the first names to come up. Rock might be slightly getting the Barry treatment in that the hyping is getting a little bit silly, but he is playing that well, and while Dolan may be not quite as good as he was twelve months ago, he's still in with a shot. Barney's below 92 in scoring, but can easily win on any day he wants so I don't think 100/1 is necessarily bad. Williams obviously already has a bink this year and the numbers support him, he's a bit more consistent than Barney and less than a quarter of a point behind. Outside of these, there's not a huge number of great picks - Smith and Huybrechts are the next two names out of the pot, you'd obviously prefer Kim given that Ross hasn't had a great start to the season, Kim's got the A-game to go deep in one of these. White and Suljovic aren't far behind, but their level of play is a couple of points off what it was in 2019 and they've gone some time without results, so it's hard to back them. O'Connor and Hughes are the only other names on the list scoring above 90, they both have Pro Tour binks, Jamie's nowhere near the level he was when he first moved to the PDC but at least looks to be trending upwards, while O'Connor was always swingy but appears to be bringing his best game more often. Quite a few of these names are only just under 90, but I think you can look at any of these and come up with a reason not to back them.

<0.5% chance

Everyone else, not going to list them all. I'm just going to roll through the rankings list and see who comes up. Gilding is the first name out, he was 300/1 before PC9, but there were already a couple of articles out pointing out he was in form, and then he's hit a final, so he may now be a bit too short. Sedlacek, if getting a call up, looks to be worth the play assuming over 200/1. Rowby was 200/1, same as Vandenbogaerde, they look pretty similar statistically, Rodriguez seems to have tidied up his consistency quite a lot and Mario's got a world of experience in floor tournaments. Other players over 90 in scoring have been Wattimena and Krcmar (both 200/1), Boulton at 300/1, Doets and Brown at 250/1, Menzies at 200/1, then Lowe and Mitchell at 250/1. These don't seem like exciting names, but they're either solid floor competitors, in form, or off their peak but we know have course and distance in these, albeit some time ago. Obviously you need to look at the draws at this stage, you're going to have to beat seeds at some point, but clearly pick your poison - aim for the player that's got a non-seed round one and then a weaker seed round 2. It doesn't matter if van Gerwen is on your board, but why throw yourself into that option in round one? Give other players a couple of shots to get the KO, it does happen. Heck, he's lost to Gary Blades this year.

Below the 90 scoring you're really punting, so you want to look for something else. Luke Woodhouse isn't far off, and is someone you feel just needs something to click to get going. There's a clutch of players immediately after in Labanauskas, Meikle, Lennon and de Zwaan who all have something a bit special - Darius has finalled before, Ryan is seemingly always putting up big averages, Lennon always seems to run into big names although his scoring has dropped of late, while de Zwaan looks to be trending up after a horrible 2021 and we know what he can do at his peak. Continuing to scroll, Rusty isn't a bad punt I feel, he knows how to win tournaments (albeit not on the main tour next) which is a very useful talent to have, while right behind him is Martin Lukeman, who's picked up some very nice scalps and raised some eyebrows, it wouldn't be that ridiculous to suggest things could come together and he could make a tour semi final. The only other name I'll throw out here is Glen Durrant - his game is still a long way off, but he has broken that huge losing streak now, and didn't look anywhere near as bad as he has done since winning the Premier League. Sure, I'm going to wait until I've seen more than a one off, but if we can get in ahead of the curve at 400/1, then it could be juicy if everything goes right.

Quick FRH rankings update

1 Peter Wright

2 Gerwyn Price

3 Michael Smith

4 Michael van Gerwen

5 James Wade

6 Jonny Clayton

7 Rob Cross

8 Gary Anderson

9 Jose de Sousa

10 Danny Noppert

11 Joe Cullen

12 Ryan Searle (UP 1)

13 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)

14 Luke Humphries (UP 1)

15 Krzysztof Ratajski (DOWN 1)

16 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)

17 Nathan Aspinall (UP 1)

18 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 2)

19 Damon Heta

20 Mervyn King

Not a huge amount of change. Searle's win has given him a bit lead over Dimitri and he's now closer to Cullen, Dirk having a bit of a shit weekend coupled with Chisnall making two semis and Aspinall making a final sees a bit of movement there, Humphries and Ratajski are basically tied so the ever so slightly better weekend for Luke sees him go up a touch.

Lower down, what the heck was that first final? Danny Jansen at 300/1 and Andrew Gilding at the same. Nice work if you can get it. Big congrats to both, Jansen and Gilding are now both up into the top 100.

I said I was going to do some sort of WDF preview, but I'll pick up after tomorrow evening. Frankly, I lack data on so many players, I don't know what I could have done. Probably said "I have no idea who Connor Scutt is playing, this is free money". Last 16 seems like a better place to go with, as we will have at least one moderately long form game for everyone by that point.

One thing I did do before PC9 is copypasta the entire market, so I'm going to make a post at some point later this week doing a bit more in detail analysis of where I think the each way value is at this point in time.

Bit of a shit post, but just wanted to get something quickly out.