Thursday 28 April 2022

ET4, this could be a bit of a mess

Busy weekend. There's the Women's Series, which I'm not really that interested in, then there's the WDF event in Denmark where we'll see if Hurrell can go back to back, I think there's a fairly significant UK-based lower level event run by one of the alphabet soup organisers as well, but first and foremost, the PDC rolls into Austria, and it's a bit of a cluster. There's some right random names come through, so calling a lot of these might be tough. Let's go through in running order and see what happens.

Szaganski/Jansen - First up we've got one of the newest (the? Did he win after Williams?) Pro Tour winners, against the latest Pole to get onto the main circuit, and Danny enters as about a 65/35 betting favourite. This year there's about a couple of points between them in the scoring, with Radek trailing as you might expect, but it's close enough that I'm thinking the market assessment is pretty much perfect.

Plaisier/Campbell - This should be a fun one, Wesley's on the back of a great run in the last Euro Tour, while Campbell is on the back of making a Pro Tour final, so both should be feeling confident. The bookies basically can't split them, my model's saying slightly more than 60/40 in favour of Plaisier, but that's going to be from very limited legs won - 28, but in the 52 legs I have on him, he's scoring nearly 93, while Matt's a little bit under 90. I think I'm going to take the small shot here, 0.1u Plaisier 17/20 at Coral/Laddies, if Campbell shows up on stage as he can do it may look silly, but Wes has done that literally this month.

Williams/van Peer - Loading up recent Pro Tour finalists early, Jim comes up against Berry van Peer, who's not had a bad start to the year at all with his scoring over 90 - albeit Jim's is a good couple of points higher, while Berry is in and around the likes of Clemens and Gurney, Williams is near de Sousa, Wade and Noppert. Woof. Jim is extremely consistent and Berry not so much, so while there is a difference in the overall scoring in 2022, the projections actually give Berry a fair chance. I think I'm going to take a small punt given the line, 0.1u van Peer 7/4, I get the feeling he's improving and putting things together, Jim ought to win but maybe not as much as the line suggests.

Rock/Petersen - I saw the line for this and piled on Josh, and I think I'm somewhat vindicated in trusting my gut looking at my phone in the pub without my data model. That says Rock nearly three in four, and we can get 8/13. This is a great play, especially when you consider that Devon's win percentage is inflated by wild inconsistency. 0.5u Rock 8/13

Evans/Engstrom - Johan is a known name and won the Nordic qualifier, but hasn't got any data in 2022, having not got deep in either of the Nordic events so far this season. Ricky's 4/11, that looks fair enough to me. Johan didn't break 90 in that qualifier, so with Ricky looking like he's turned a corner, this seems like a safe enough but not really worth considering a punt spot.

Razma/Rasztovits - First of the players to come through the home nation qualifier, and it's the experienced Rasztovits, who's averaged basically the same low 80's score throughout in the quali which you feel will not trouble someone of Madars' calibre. Sure, that's going to be deflated by the general low quality of the field with Suljovic and Lerchbacher having cards and moving straight in and both the good Rodriguez brothers playing the main quali, but it really does seem like the sort of spot where the market saying Razma 70/30 is correct.

Beaton/Menzies - Kind of getting the feeling we're running out of times that we'll see Steve on a big stage of any kind (at least until, or if, he tries the seniors when he eventually loses his card), so I think we need to enjoy it while it lasts, and he's been given a tough draw in Cameron, who's off the back of a decent WDF worlds run and I project as a 55/45 favourite on 2022 data. He's 4/5, guess what that works out at.

White/Gosnak - Ian's got another of the home nation qualifiers and it's a completely new name to me. Patrik had a best average of 84 in a first round game against Armin Glanzer, who I've at least heard of, then went downhill from there against Kallinger and then another complete random who seemed to completely shit the bed in the final. Ian is 1/9, meh. I don't see any realistic way that Ian loses the match, but it's just so short that I can't justify saying put a huge amount on.

Burger/Rydz - Pretty much a similar spot here, except Burger's at least a known name having played the worlds a couple of times, albeit over a decade ago in both cases now. Callan's almost as short as White is, they appear fairly similar in level with Ian maybe being a little bit more inconsistent, Dietmar actually put in a 91 average in the last qualifying round, which is enough to put me off any sort of gamble here.

Tricole/Lerchbacher - More Austrians incoming against the recent WDF world finalist. We've got a decent amount of data on Thibault, over 180 legs this year, and he's consistent but consistently not doing a tremendous amount of heavy scoring, and Zoran, on pretty limited data, is a couple of points higher. The bookies can't split them, and I don't want to try either, particularly with Zoran being at home.

Martinez/Clemens - I think this'll be the first look I get at Tony, and Clemens is going to be a very tough test and Gabriel opens as a 75/25 favourite. Clemens is a bit up and down of late and scoring right on the 90 mark, which is over three points more than the Spaniard, which isn't that much and I'm a little bit tempted at 3/1. The projections love Tony, giving him over 40%, which would normally be a no brainer, but he has wild inconsistency, having the third highest of any card holder with decent sample size, so as this being a significant game, I can avoid this, but Gabriel may not have this entirely his own way.

Noppert/Wattimena - A while ago this could have been a last 32 match in a major, now it's an opening game on the Euro Tour. Seems fairly likely that we have seen the last of the Noppert value train and that is gone forever, but has the market overadjusted? He is close to a 75/25 market favourite. He is better, yes, but I don't think he's that much better than Jermaine, who's seemingly climbing out of the nadir of his form, and this year is actually only about a point and a half behind Danny in overall scoring, with a bit better consistency. Model says 60/40 - I could believe this, and will take the shot, 0.1u Wattimena 14/5, the risk/reward to go small here seems a no brainer.

de Zwaan/Suljovic - The middle of the evening session is packed with big names and we've got another Dutchie looking to climb back from bad form and he's up against the ultimate home favourite in Mensur. This projects at around the same line with Mensur being 60/40 ahead - there's less than a point between them and both are very consistent, Jeffrey especially so, although that might be a little bit down to not finishing his won legs that quickly and he's the second name off the list with a winning average below 90 when sorting by overall average. Mensur is 4/7, so there's not the edge, but I'm not putting Suljovic in any multiples.

Bunting/Sedlacek - Didn't these two play each other fairly recently? I don't know. Karel's back again, Bunting has seemingly been a bit under the radar in 2022, but is scoring well enough that he's slap bang in the middle of 60% and two in three win chances. Tough draw for Sedlacek, well, both really. Karel's a little bit undervalued, but not by much.

Claydon/Sturm - What on earth do we do with this. Claydon is scoring 86. Sturm is basically unknown who had a good 5-0 sweep with an 87 average, but then dropped below 75 in each of the last two rounds, albeit getting no help from his opponents. Brett is 1/4. Let's just avoid this altogether.

Labanauskas/Rodriguez - Final game, and Darius might be in a tough spot here against Rowby on home soil who has been outscoring him by more than a couple of points this season. Bookies can't split them, I don't see why as I'm thinking Rowby should grab this maybe two in three. 0.25u Rodriguez evs

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