Saturday, 16 April 2022

ET3 round 1 tips

Krcmar/Woodhouse - Seems a genuinely tight one to call. The markets slightly favour Krcmar, I think this is fair based on six month's data, in 2022 it leans towards possibly being small value, but not enough to consider a bet, especially considering Krcmar's stage record.

Larsson/van Peer - We've got very little to go on for Larsson, but what we do recall is that he doesn't really score strongly enough to have a massive chance at this level. Berry scoring at 89 ought to be more than enough. At the odds we're offered though? I think it's worth the shot, 0.25u van Peer 8/15

Lukeman/Gawlas - This is priced up surprisingly closely, but checking the data, it seems Gawlas might be a bit closer to Lukeman than I first thought, meaning that the generally available 8/11 isn't the slam dunk bet I thought it would be. Oh well.

Plaisier/Williams - Jim's a huge favourite here and I basically have nothing recent on Wesley, his Q-School numbers don't actually look too bad, whether they'll convert to a result against someone as steady as Jim, I don't know. 13/5 is fairly tempting, but with Jim playing as he is, I'll pass, this might be closer than the market expects though.

Brown/Hunt - Interesting mix of one player maybe returning to form and another being off the boil. Keegan is shorter than 1/2, which seems really one sided, on 2022 data I've got Adam at over 40%, but the last six months the line is made out to be fair? Urgh, that's not the endorsement I was looking for. 2022 data indicates a small flyer seems fine, 0.1u Hunt 2/1, Keegan might be playing better but there's still a bit of pressure to get big results like this, he is after all some way off retaining his card.

Horvat/Waites - Going to need to look to Q-School data for Horvat here, and his numbers are not convincing. We know he can have a great spell where he'll kill two legs in 25 darts or something like that, but it's the consistency that's always been the problem. Waites I think should be far too solid, I could go with the same logic as the van Peer bet, it is a similar price, but we know Dragutin is a bit better than Daniel is, so will pass.

O'Shea/Dobey - Chris is a huge favourite. Coming in at over 80% on six months data, over 75% on 2022 data. I was kind of hoping for it to be a little bit tighter given Dobey has been a little bit up and down, but there's nothing there to justify a punt.

Huybrechts/Razma - Six month data puts Huybrechts at 63%, 2022 at 59%, that's kind of what I'd expect, Kim's the stronger all round player but outside of a couple of blips Razma seems to have started off 2022 well. With the Latvian at 7/4, we can't really consider punting one way or another as the edges needed are simply absent.

Soutar/Hopp - Similarly priced match here with Soots coming in as the favourite, Max is needing results, and on six months data he is projected to win basically one in three exactly, so 6/4 is not a tempter. However, on 2022 data, he improves to 45%, so trending very much in the right direction. I'm going to take a small stab here, 0.1u Hopp 6/4, this is very much speculative based on short form data, but he's shown some signs, clearly plays better on stage and in Germany as well, so there's a few things that are working in Max's favour in this one.

Baggish/Junghans - We've got nothing on Thomas, Baggish is 2/5, Danny is not putting up anywhere near the numbers where we can think that this is in any way safe - despite Junghans not averaging over 80 at Q-School. Could be a game where weird things happen and I want no piece of it.

Barry/Wenig - We've got enough data on Lukas to get a decent read, he's just not a high enough scorer to realistically threaten Keane in this one. Five visit percentage is extremely low, although he'll finish in six a lot of the time. That's not going to cut it, Barry is around 70-75% in the market which feels right.

de Zwaan/van der Voort - Big year for Jeffrey this, and he enters this game against van der Voort as a small underdog. I get 40% on six months data and 43% on 2022 data, so 13/10 isn't an exciting punt, then again Vincent is in no way a big enough favourite that we want to take the weak odds offered.

Schindler/Wattimena - Maybe Jermaine has got a bit more of a chance than advertised here. My six month stats call this a coinflip, and 2022 data still gives him more than 45%. Do we want to take 6/4? I'm thinking not, this seems like one where the confidence of the two players will count for a bit more than the raw numbers, the crowd will be into it at this stage, I might regret passing on Wattimena but it's what I'm going to do.

van Barneveld/Wilson - I'm close to taking Barney on this one. I see straight in the middle of 75% and 80%, Unibet have 2/5 while most places have 1/3. Actually, I will go for that price - 0.25u van Barneveld 2/5, that only needs 71% to break even, we have a fair bit more than that, and there's reason to believe James isn't at 100%. It's only Unibet having it a bit closer than others that is generating the bet, don't take any shorter.

Meikle/Chisnall - This is priced way off, Meikle on longer form has over a 40% shot and is 38% on 2022 data, 0.1u Meikle 11/4, Ryan has too much quality and will show it often enough to take this price.

That's the lot, back later for round two.

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