Saturday 30 April 2022

ET4 day 2, now with less Ian White

Wow, that was a bit of a wild day, big averages, nine darters missed into the next country, and huge upsets. This is why I try not to bet on stupidly odds on things, with White being 1/9, the breakeven point is 90%. We not only need to be at that to recommend, we need to be above that with a decent edge, and it's so hard to be sure against an unknown. Against a bottom tier card holder who we have data on, that's a different story. Still, Rock and Rodriguez got home, Plaisier nicked us a bit more, van Peer really wasn't close but Wattimena was in the right ballpark. Not going to go through every game, just the ones where I think there's enough value for a bet or comment, if I say nothing the line isn't interesting:

Heta's close. Very close, should maybe be nearer 1/5 but Evans has shown enough flashes that I'll avoid it. Seems about the same as Searle/Lerchbacher in edge, which is 1/5, if not shorter in places.

Aspinall/Plaisier is an intriguing one. Nathan's been playing great, but through injury, Wesley has been playing great, but we lack data, the line feels about right but the data says lay Nathan. Hmm.

Williams is close. Playing well, underrated, Cullen probably overrated. Give me north of 2/1 and not 7/4 and I'd say yes.

Maybe Rowby's close to value? I can see however that the Rock value is disappearing fast, as short as 5/4 in some places against Rob Cross? Really? I mean I'll take 0.25u Rock 29/20 that is there on Ladbrokes as this looks very close to a flip and that's large enough, but come on now.

Was hoping there'd be a bit of Bunting value. Ross hasn't started the year well, Stephen has, and quietly, but with a 65/35 projection and 4/7 odds or there abouts, no thanks.

So just the one punt sadly. Be back tomorrow morning for the last sixteen.

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