Sunday 1 May 2022

ET4 day 3

Before ET4, congrats to Lisa Ashton and Trina Gulliver (didn't expect the latter, that's for sure) for getting the cake in the Women's Series, along with Laura Turner for back to back finals, also to Sebastian Bialecki for winning the Denmark Open, should also give props to Darren Johnson for going deep there as well. In Austria, there were a few odd results, Evans we thought maybe had a chance, and he did punish some slightly off finishing from Heta, while Lerchbacher over Searle is not one I saw coming. Other than that, Razma over de Sousa is an upset of sorts but the former's playing well and the latter's a bit off his best, chuck in 3/17 on doubles and that result happens, also Danny Jansen turning over Luke Humphries is a surprise, even taking into account Jansen has a tour title this year, Luke did literally win one of these things last time up and this is a statement victory - especially with the scoreline, while Danny beat some good players to win his title, a lot of them were deciding legs, so 6-2 is eye opening. Eight games today, let's go straight into it:

Rydz/Bunting - Callan took advantage of Wright missing a few key doubles, while Bunting wasn't really troubled against Smith, one quick leg and some good finishing aside. The market can't split them, I think Bunting's maybe got slightly the better chances, scoring a point per turn better this season and projecting at near 60%. I think it's worth the shot as a result, 0.25u Bunting evs

Jansen/Evans - Plenty would have been looking at this as Searle/Heta, but we get neither, and it is another one that the market cannot decide between. I see this as fairly similar to the last one, Danny's a point a turn better than Ricky is, and has the confidence of a tour win this year - while Ricky again fell short on his chance. 0.25u Jansen evs

Noppert/Clayton - Two major winners collide, Danny with a formidable average against Dimitri where he had no legs off whatsoever, while Clayton was in a bit of a scrappy tussle with de Zwaan, but both are here now and Clayton rates as a bit more than a 60% favourite in the market. I've got it as ever so slightly tighter than that, but it's not enough to make me consider Danny, as always I'll preface that Jonny has done his best work in unranked exbos so maybe he's underrated in my system as a result, just two or three percentage points will make the line perfect for all intents and purposes.

Clemens/Cross - Another missed double exploit here for Gabriel, Brendan missed his chances and Gabriel didn't, while Rob was pretty good in not allowing our sole tip of yesterday many chances of doubles at all, ton average is never anything to sniff at. Market has Rob as a bit more than a two in three favourite, which feels right instinctively, I've got it at just over 70% so that seems fair enough.

Cullen/Ratajski - Krzysztof swept Gosnak as you might have expected to happen, Cullen meanwhile was forced to 4-4 by Jim Williams in a game that looks like it was better quality than the numbers project. Cullen's a marginal favourite in the market and I thought he might have opened shorter, I've got it as pretty much a flip with Ratajski being the one ever so slightly above 50%. Is 13/10 enough of a price to go with it? Maybe not quite, while Krzysztof played well yesterday he wasn't really tested and an Austrian qualifier to a Premier League player is one hell of a shift, so he could get caught out. Maybe.

Razma/Aspinall - Madars as we mentioned took de Sousa out, Aspinall we've not mentioned yet, he kicked away in the mid stages of his match against Plaisier and finished a comfortable victor, despite not putting up amazing numbers outside of doubling, so maybe the scoring was a bit lacking. Nathan is a very short favourite here at 2/5, but hey, I think it's justified. I have said he's been playing well for about half a year now, and I've got him winning at least two in three, so it seems fair enough.

van Gerwen/Wade - MvG didn't look fantastic against Menzies, but got home 6-3, while Wade looked really, really good in a win over Brett Claydon, this straight off the back of a Premier League night win where he beat Michael. As such, 6/4 isn't necessarily what I'd have expected to see for a line on Wade, I've only got him at 35% but it looks like he's in a little bit of a purple patch right now, so easily avoiding it.

Lerchbacher/van Duijvenbode - Final game, Zoran as we mentioned got into a big lead early against Searle and held his nerve to make the final day for what I believe to be the first time, while Dirk was made to work against Rowby who missed darts in multiple legs, which could have easily made the result very different. Dirk projects at three in four wins, he's 1/3. No value here.

So just the two picks, these tips look nothing like in running order, I've just gone off of what oddschecker was listing, but that's what I'm going for.

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