Saturday 7 May 2022

ET5 round 2 evening

OK, let's go to the evening:

Humphries/Penhall - Can't really recommend a play here. Darren has looked competent, but with limited data it's hard to say if there's any value when we can't even get 4/1. Against a player of Luke's calibre I'm inclined to say no.

Aspinall/Sedlacek - Karel getting another bye, nice, Nathan is a tricky task though and the Czech is floating at around a 30% shot in the market, I think he's close enough to Aspinall that it's worth a sneaky small flier on 365, 0.1u Sedlacek 12/5, 2022 data thinks this is more like low-mid 40% range for Karel so greater than 2/1 looks good.

Price/Woodhouse - Wow, how good did Luke look yesterday? Completely shut out my Mansell bet, can he sustain it against Gerwyn? That's always been the issue. Looks a 75/25 to me on 2022 data, we can get a bit longer than 3/1 on Luke, it's not enough for me to recommend a play, but if you think Woodhouse can sustain yesterday's level of play, I'm not going to stop you.

van Gerwen/Gurney - Daryl was in a bit of a fight with Kevin Burness that went with throw until the decider where he broke, that's not the confidence building game you want when coming up against one of the best players in the world. I can only see just above 20% chances for Daryl in this one, Michael's back to playing really well, 2/7 looks just fine to me.

Wright/Williams - Scott was pressured in a high quality game against Adam Gawlas, and make no mistake, if he plays like that today he absolutely can give Peter some problems. I think he's got maybe a bit more than a one in four chance, 4/1 is not quite enough, we've got enough long priced fliers that look value (I see that Menzies has already been backed in from where we took him) without desperately trying to manufacture another one.

Clayton/Rodriguez - Rowby's game with Kurz was a little sloppy, plenty of missed doubles etc, not what you want to be showing when coming up against one of the world's elite. 5/1 (Unibet) is way too long, we're taking that, 0.1u Rodriguez 5/1, 9/2 generally available also good. Projections say one in three, which may be a little high, but even if we said one in four which doesn't sound that outlandish, you're still well above the 17% you need to break even. Worth the punt.

Cross/Schindler - Martin gets to go up against Rob after taking out Edhouse in a game which feels like it might have been closer if Ritchie could hit doubles, the line here feels about right, Rob's good enough that he should win this somewhere between 60% and 65% of the time, so generally available 8/13 seems on the money.

Heta/Chisnall - Good one to finish, Damon's up there with the world's elite while Chizzy beat Clemens but certainly wasn't at his best, which you feel he'll need to be tonight. Looks about 65/35 in favour of Heta, can't really get better than 4/6 which isn't quite enough to recommend a play.

Will almost certainly be back on very short notice for round three.

No comments:

Post a Comment