Sunday 22 May 2022

Stuttgart day 3

Solid gain on the day thanks to Gilding, sure it was a bit of a messy game (30 dart leg, survived a match dart, missed a few doubles in leg 2 which would have given nice breathing room) but the win is the win. Gave a quarter of the winnings back on Lewis who got to exactly where we wanted at 2-0 up on the throw, then generally couldn't score heavily enough, and when he did, he either missed doubles or ran into a twelve from Clayton. Oh well. Maybe some missed opportunities with Lukeman pulling out the big upset along with Rowby and Rafferty getting the job done, if you were a bit more risk averse than me you'll have got rewarded. Eight quick matches to run through this afternoon, I doubt I'll be able to put anything up for the evening session but will try to give rough projections in a separate post in case you want to work things out for yourself.

Schindler/Lukeman - Martin wasted no time in defeating Razma just conceding the two legs, the other Martin managed to take down van Gerwen conceding even less. Wow. Market has this fairly close with Schindler approaching a 60% chance, that feels about right. I'm getting 57%. Might be a little bit more with the home field advantage but I doubt that shifts things anywhere near enough to consider a best price of 4/6.

Heta/Searle - Probably two of the strongest names left in the field, Damon needed all eleven legs to see off Mickey Mansell, while Ryan didn't have a great deal of trouble despatching Adam Gawlas in eight. Market has this incredibly close with Heta having the tiny edge, I tend to agree with this assessment giving Heta just 5% greater winning chances than Searle, so nothing in this one either.

Rodriguez/Gurney - Rowby dropped just the one leg against Cullen, we thought he had chances but I didn't think that scoreline was in anyway realistic, Gurney was made to work against Eddie Lovely, taking it down by the one break after being forced all the way to 4-4. Think Rowby has a small edge in this one, approaching a 55% chance, but the market puts him as a small underdog. This is very close to a play at 5/4, if he'd played better yesterday (despite the scoreline his averaging was not brilliant) I'd likely go with it, Daryl wasn't good yesterday either but I think he responds and did recognise it was not a good game from him. Will watch and grab 11/8 if it appears anywhere.

Cross/Ratajski - Rob needed a decider against Klaasen, not a great doubling show but got the one that counted, while Ratajski was clinical in a 6-2 rout over Huybrechts, not missing a dart at double in the whole game. This feels close on paper, market favours Cross by somewhere in the 55-60% region, maybe Ratajski has a little bit more of a chance than that but I still project Rob to win it and as such there is not the edge there.

Gilding/Dolan - Big opportunity for both here, Andrew we mentioned earlier, Brendan looked pretty decent in a 6-4 win over the dangerous Danny Jansen. Market has this real close with Dolan slightly favoured, Gilding is 11/10 which isn't enough. I've got him at 51%, would probably go at 11/8 and with yesterday's win I can't see the money going on Brendan enough for us to see a market move.

Murnan/Humphries - Joe took advantage of some missed chances from Dimitri to nick a decider and advance to the last 16, while Luke was also taken to a decider by Meikle who missed three darts for a critical break at 4-4. Oh well. Market is all over Luke and I can't disagree with it, Joe's got his moments but I only see him at 17% to claim this one. 2/9 Humphries is not actually a bad bet, that's basically a shade better than break even.

Wright/Clayton - Seems to be fairly often where we get the two biggest names left playing at this stage, whether these are the two best players is an entirely different question. Mentioned Clayton earlier, Wright didn't have too much trouble with Engstrom, Johan got a couple of early holds but Wright was cruising from there. Tricky one to call, I have Peter as a tiny favourite, the market has it the other way around. This is similar to the Rowby spot, if any more comes on Clayton I'd certainly think about it, but given my projections have had a tendency to underestimate Jonny, I doubt we ever see it in reality.

Noppert/Rafferty - Danny eliminated Michael Smith in a good game where Noppert had the lower average (at 102), while Nathan got a nice scalp in taking down Dirk van Duijvenbode with a ton average of his own. The market doesn't give Rafferty much of a shot at 11/4, we've liked him in both games (one a recommended play, one not quite so much) but he runs into one of our old favourites in this one, and I really can't call the play here. He's a little bit underrated, but I only see 31%, the odds we can get say 27%, so it's not quite there. If he was actually north of 3/1, then I'd start thinking about it.

So no actual bets on day 3, Rodriguez and Wright seem the closest to bets and I wouldn't stop anyone from taking those plays.

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