Brief post-Basel update

Didn't see a whole lot of great value on the rest of the tournament. Fuck knows how Searle didn't win that, some real good wins from the locals, and Schindler's now got two of these. No Leicester field shocks, although Rydz did make it interesting for a short while, quick FRH update:

1 Luke Humphries

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Dave Chisnall (UP 4)

4 Rob Cross

5 Michael Smith (DOWN 2)

6 Luke Littler

7 Damon Heta (DOWN 2)

8 Stephen Bunting (UP 3)

9 Peter Wright (DOWN 1)

10 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)

11 Chris Dobey (UP 2)

12 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 2)

13 James Wade (UP 1)

14 Ross Smith (UP 1)

15 Ryan Searle (UP 3)

16 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 4)

17 Josh Rock

18 Martin Schindler (NEW)

19 Danny Noppert

20 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 4)

Three days of Pro Tours for the final tune ups before Leicester, always worth watching for the most recent form reads. With the tournament seemingly starting on Monday, I've got some time to get pieces together after the Pro Tour and before the event starts.

Quick day 1 bets

Sedlacek/Williams - close on Karel but no

Woodhouse/Nijman - line seems accurate

Ratajski/Stoeckli - Krzysztof probably safe but silly odds on line

de Decker/Hall - line is fine

Razma/Fehlmann - 0.5u Razma 2/9, Alex didn't impress me, Madars is playing well this week

Gilding/Prez - half tempted to do the same but Andrew is less convincing

Hertig/Meikle - same, Ryan too inconsistent to be really sure this is value

Rydz/Dolan - don't think there's quite enough there for a form based Callan punt, which is something that seems dangerous in and of itself

Edhouse/Wattimena - possible small Jermaine value if you don't believe that Ritchie outperforms his numbers, which we see moderately often

Ostlund/van Duijvenbode - think this is close, some places offering 1/4, Dirk is close enough to back, Ostlund isn't convincing but did get through a much harder qualifier than the domestic lads so will give some benefit of the doubt

van den Bergh/Wade - looks close enough to correct for me

Cullen/van Barneveld - maybe Barney's fractionally overvalued but it's neither here nor there

Menzies/Clayton - Cameron slightly favoured in the market. Doesn't seem wrong to me

Wright/Veenstra - Peter not being available at even 1/2 might be a bit too much of a hype train, but Veenstra hasn't really shown quite enough to make 7/4 that enticing

Walpen/Aspinall - 9/1 for someone who has played on this stage at all might actually be enough if you combine him actually winning legitimately and Nathan having a flare up and playing awfully

White/Smith - line might be slightly harsh on White. But only slightly.

Basel day 1

PDC have upgraded the place to the nation's capital. News to me. Still, the quali is in the books, very surprisingly Bellmont didn't make it through so we have Walpen and three pretty much unknowns in the event, will blast through the first two rounds. I think I mentioned before but I am away for football this weekend so updates, if they happen at all, will be brief.

Rock v Edhouse/Wattimena - Good first round game between two players kind of in similar spots but one is actually in the majors right now, Jermaine could sneak in with a very deep run but it seems like too much to ask for right now. Reads about 60/40 Jermaine, going 70/30 more form based, might play a bit tighter than that in theory, and Rock would only just about have 55% against Wattimena in round two.

Cross v Gilding/Pres - Know nothing of Pres. Beat a few known players in the quali but couldn't average much more than 95, and that tourney was in June so who knows if it's relevant. Gilding should be fine and then between a 2/1 and 3/1 dog against Rob, fairly routine stuff I think.

Humphries v Wright/Veenstra - Peter will look to continue a bit of a purple patch, Richard is a tough opponent though, getting 45% in longer data and 40% in shorter data, which may be even less in reality with how things have been going. Luke should naturally be a substantial favourite, more than three in four in the big data set but Wright may well be pushing things over 30% on form.

Littler v Ratajski/Stoeckli - Bruno's a new name, didn't manage much below a low 80 average today, so can't think Krzysztof will have too much trouble, I think the next match is a redo from earlier this year, the Pole has enough to be pushing up to near a one in three shot to make the Sunday.

Bunting v White/Smith - Seems like forever since we've seen Ian, and this is an awkward draw, not seeing much better than 30% and that's form based, Michael goes above 75% the more data we take, and we'd expect Bunting to be a small, 55/45 sort of favourite in round two if Smith comes through.

Schindler v Ostlund/van Duijvenbode - Anton won the quali back in July, beating nine dart hero Cor Dekker to get here, but we're lacking data on him, the qual numbers were not great, he clearly can't have done much of anything in the SDC and Dirk should be fine to face Schindler, against whom he might actually be a small favourite and heading the right way.

Smith v de Decker/Hall - Mike's going along solidly and does actually need a win here to lock up a Grand Prix spot, although the permutations to put him out would be freakish. Hall could do with a win for the worlds, he's within a couple of grand so a win here and a good midweek would set him up nicely for the final stretch. but he only looks maybe one in three, possibly down to under 30% more recently to do that. Mike against Ross is weighted in the number 2 seed's favour as you would expect, but Mike has enough to be no worse than 40/60 such is his level of play.

Pietreczko v Cullen/van Barneveld - Joe's another one who looks like he should be in the Grand Prix but is not guaranteed, not a great draw and current form is pushing Barney up from just the right side of a coinflip to just over 60%. Ricardo had a terrible game midweek and withdrew last weekend, so I'm assuming he's turning up for the wages and nothing else.

Noppert v Menzies/Clayton - This one should be fun. form player from all year against someone coming back into form, Clayton creeps up from the low 40's to high 40's as we get more form based so this should be tight, and I find Menzies and Noppert pretty much impossible to split so this really is anyone's section.

van Veen v Rydz/Dolan - Callan had a little bit of a run midweek, but it's surely too little too late for Leicester as he needs to bink. Dolan could do with one more win to lock a spot up, and that seems maybe unlikely - he's only 45/55 on long data, but more form based Rydz jumps out to more than two in three. Wild stuff. Rydz is 40/60 against last week's finalist regardless of sample so that swing says more about Dolan than anythin.

Price v van den Bergh/Wade - Probably hard to find value here. Wade's a touch better, going from low 50's to high 50's as we get more form based, while if he was to play Price it goes from 60/40 in Gerwyn's favour to a coinflip, James is another with a decent midweek run.

Dobey v Woodhouse/Nijman - Luke is the last man in Leicester right now but has a bastard draw to try to get the points he needs to make it safe, Wessel playing so well that he projects over 60% which pushes up to near 70% as his form takes hold. He's that good that he's basically only a coin flip against Dobey!

Heta v Razma/Fehlmann - Alex was unable to seriously threaten the scorers in the qualifier, sticking to low 80's which isn't going to cut it against Madars who had a fine midweek, but will need to be on top form against Damon, who is showing as almost a 3-1 favourite, the Aussie just being that much better than the Latvian.

Searle v Hertig/Meikle - Ryan's gone back to showing flashes and then not doing much in between after a spell where it looked like he might be gaining some consistency, but he shouldn't need much in round one against a qualifier who didn't get out of the seventies for averages. So we should get a Ryan derby, where Searle is not projecting as big a favourite as I thought, around 60/40 on the bigger sample which actually goes down, but this feels like a consistency weirdness line.

Chisnall v Walpen/Aspinall - Marcel is the one guy we really know who came through this afternoon, and had one good game where he got into the 90's so showed some upside despite mostly looking as average as the rest of the players that got through. Aspinall is hard to call right now, midweek really didn't tell us a great deal as to where his health is truly at, so this seems like a section to simply avoid. Chizzy, a midweek winner, probably isn't concerned.

Gurney v Sedlacek/Williams -  Two players in round one where it seems like we've talked about them a lot less this season than in previous ones, but Karel is perhaps surprisingly projecting the better, about 55/45 regardless. He's also slightly favoured over Gurney, which is perhaps a weird one as it feels like Daryl has been playing better (heck, he's got himself in the seeds here), but this is probably the one section of the draw where all three outcomes are in play.

Bets tomorrow.

Quick update

I'm going to save FRH updates until after ET12, it's a bit too quick of a turn around so I'll let another three events get into the books before updating. For that ET12, expect limited updates as I'm away for football from the Friday evening, there were limited updates for ET11 but that was more personal reasons, that and with the limited punts found in round 2, I didn't expect to see anything in round 3 given the level of chalk involved.

One thing I will say though, is that MvG's gone from nothing since forever to two wins in a week. And a confident MvG is a dangerous MvG. The numbers will take some time to catch up, but he clearly can't be discounted from anything as of right now.

The great escape - round 2 bets

OK, we backdoored a profit in that one, Darren missed some doubles early, got back into it a bit but then kept doing the same and couldn't get it done, Bialecki was breaking for fun but just couldn't hold and then lost a decider, thankfully Clayton and our smaller shots got us out of things for a tiny profit on the day, which given how the last few months have been going, we'll take, it was amusing this evening to get some bonus Joe Cullen content on X but I'll leave that one for you all to investigate if you've not seen it already, will do same sort of format as yesterday given much of the descriptions were already in the bank on the Thursday.

Yep:

0.25u Heta 9/10 v Wright, he's on form yes, but this is looking 65/35 even on the smaller sample size. With a known very, very good player, we can take this one.

Meh:

van Veen > Barry - Line might be slightly underestimating Gian. I've got it at 70%, maybe a couple of points more in more recent samples, so 1/2? Why not?

Dobey > Williams - 4/9 is not the worst line I've seen. I'm thinking nearer to 4/11, but this isn't a three in four shot for Chris.

Clayton > Chisnall - This is close, 6/5 doesn't seem much, but the projections are generally floating closer to evens than I thought they would do when averaged out, and there is a good trend and a solid win this evening. Will probably go with it privately.

Clemens > Humphries - He really, really isn't a general 3/1 dog, he's better than that, but laying Luke appears maybe suicidal.

Lol no:

Pietreczko/Zonneveld - Stats since May are basically in line with the odds. Bring in earlier and it says bet Niels (who played real solid today), but I can find this an easy avoid.

Searle/Bezjian - LOL,

Gurney/Hempel - Market has this really close, although giving Daryl an edge, I'm not sure he even deserves the edge he has, but it's not by a huge amount.

Bunting/Dekker - Can't see Cor being close to competing, but probably has enough that 1/8 is not a complete auto print money.

Schindler/Williams - Current line seems close enough to me, Martin's showing at 65/35 on longer samples, more like 60/40 on more up to date samples, Jim's 6/4, easy move on.

Rock/Wade - We can pass on this one, we think Wade's closer to Rock than you might think, and the line is nicely in concurrence with this.

Noppert/Aspinall - Not touching Nathan out of general principle for the time being.

Price/Nijamn - Seems fair. Full data has Wessel at just shorter than 6/4 as just about perfect. Shorter data has things as closer to a flip, so my lean would be on the Dutchman, but without a huge deal of edge.

Smith/van Barneveld - Two players with a bunch of data. They've got this close enough to right, maybe Ross is ever so slightly underrated, but not so much there's anything worth investigating and that's understandable in an RvB game.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Michael is just that much better at 1/4. He's probably not 80/20, but Lukeman doesn't have anywhere near the equity to start to consider a yolo shot.

Cross/Gilding - Yeah, Rob being ranked a bit better than a two in three shot seems fine. Maybe there's a trend in Andrew's game that he might be tiny value (saw similar in the first round game), but we won't be investigating it.

Hungary round 1 bets

Yes:

0.25u Beveridge 13/10 vs Barry, anything less and I might only go 0.1 but 365 give the price. Seeing him between 55-60% dependent on the sample, and the number gets better on form. That's enough for someone odds against like this.

0.25u Bialecki 7/4 vs Zonneveld, again 365, the numbers I've got float from being 55/45 the wrong way to 55/45 the right way - may be getting into a little bit of a sample size issue with Bialecki and he is a little bit more inconsistent, but he's a known competent player against someone who is good but not elite, and 7/4 is a decent number.

0.1u Bezjian evs, this is a pure FDI related punt. I know nothing of these players, or what sample Lendel has, but if he's saying 70/30 I'll trust him for a small stab.

0.1u Clemens 6/5 - Going to have a little stab here despite Dirk seemingly getting back to where he should be at. Longer data is putting things as a flip, which is neither here nor there, but a more form based sample is giving more than 55% for Clemens, nearer 60% even, so I'll take the small shot.

0.25u Clayton 13/8 - Long data says this is evens. Since May we've got Clayton scoring more than Smith and projecting over 60%. We'll snap off that price on Ladbrokes and just hope Smith doesn't do for us yet again.

Close:

Nijman > Jehirszki, 1/8 has got to be close to value surely?

Vegso > Dekker - Shame Janos is so hard to judge. I think Dekker is better but he's not 4/11 better. Probably.

Wenig > Wade - Think giving Lukas only a 25% chance in the market is being slightly unfair, but I'm not a huge believer right now so will give it a pass as things are definitely trending more towards Wade than away from him.

Cullen > Wright - Almost tempted to say that Joe is still doing enough despite strong trend forms, given he's nearly 2/1 in the market. Long data says 50/50, more form based says 40/60, got to think that the actuality is closer to the line again, certainly wouldn't be going with Peter but it's just so, so hard to trust Joe in this one.

van Barneveld > Edhouse - 10/11feels like it's nearly there. Long data says 55/45 which is no edge to talk about, but more form based (using since May for this) puts it closer to 60/40, which is near the point where we'd consider it, Ritchie often doing better than the numbers suggest is enough to just say no.

Nope:

Hempel/Rydz - Find it hard to give either player any edge at all. Nobody's longer than 11/10 either.

Dolan/Lukeman - Again, too close to call, is a little bit more swingy around 50/50 based on sample but not much, and again neither's better than 11/10.

Williams/Soutar - Yet another one where the market is very close and the projections are also too tight to pick a winner. Market slightly favours Jim and I'm slightly favouring Alan but it's not enough to even put in the close category.

Woodhouse/Williams - A similar story, except here I'm getting a few points in favour of Luke, and the market has him narrowly odds on as well. Maybe he could be a tick or two shorter, but there's no real edge here.

Ratajski/Aspinall - Not touching it as I can't believe a single think about how healthy Aspinall actually is. Ratajski may well be the play and the number doesn't look awful but this is very much at your own risk.

van den Bergh/Gilding - Easy one to pass. Market line is pretty much spot on with the bigger sample. The smaller one makes it closer to a coin flip so maybe Gilding should be worth considering, but that doesn't feel intuitively correct.

Hungary thoughts

Alright, we're fresh off the back of a couple of Pro Tours, where we didn't have surprise winners (although it was MvG's first win for a surprising amount of time), but two with a few people making surprising deep runs, and that leads up to this weekend's return to one of the Euro Tour's (now expended for 2025!) newer destinations in one of darts' more rapidly developing areas. Hungary it is, and we've got 48 players who will be hungry (here all week) for a ranking title, let's scan:

Chisnall v Smith/Clayton - Blockbuster section to start, Smith's still, I think it's fair to say, never really built from his world title, has had a quiet season outside of that annoying Matchplay run, but should be cranking the form up as we get to the business end of the season. Clayton's also been quiet, and still isn't playing anywhere near his actual ranking, but has shown better signs in the last two to three months. Chizzy continues to be in great form, nearly adding another Pro Tour this week and looking to make it three out of four Euro Tours, so despite being the only player here without a major, is likely the favourite over either second round opponent at this point in time.

Gurney v Hempel/Eydz - Florian's someone it doesn't feel like we've heard a great deal from this season, but he does have a moderately recent Pro Tour semi final and that's enough to put him provisionally in the worlds right now, a win here would be more than handy as it's by no means a lock. Rydz has been in a lot of these and continues to be up and down, scoring alright (a tad better than Hempel), but not really making any real deep runs, so this should be competitive. Gurney isn't the worst draw either could have got, but at the same time Daryl, still playing in and around that top 32 level, won't mind having got the pick of these either, as he should have some edge here.

Heta v Wright/Cullen - Oh boy, another big section here. Wright is at least showing signs of staying relevant with his recent addition to his Euro Tour tally (although for the love of god please give him next year's Premier League off to concentrate on ranking events), which is more than can be said for Joe, whose numbers are not rallying in the slightest, safely behind Peter (who's only recently just got back above scoring of 90 a turn), he's flashed with a couple of finals this year but those seem the exception and not the rule and is correctly an underdog for this one. Damon should win the second round game, twice winner on the Pro Tour this year and statistically in and around the top ten by any metric, the question for him is more if he can make the deep run in a major that'd shove him into Premier League contention. A first Euro Tour of the year wouldn't hurt though.

Searle v Bezijan/Czoka - Going to struggle with this one. There's plenty of known Hungarian players. Only one of those came through the quali. These two aren't any of them. The quali was back at the start of June, so I'm not sure how much use that's going to be in gauging this game at all. Got to think this is by a country mile the biggest game for either in their careers, and a likely nervy one given it should be winnable for both. Unlike the second round with Searle, quietly having a very solid scoring season but still looking for a breakthrough at this level of play. This'll probably be the easiest he'll ever have it to get to the final day.

Price v Jehirszki/Nijman - Kind of the same problem here, except the qualifier has drawn Nijman, the youngster who is having a very impressive season, his level of play being that of a top 32 talent, and if he's able to punch through at senior level and win a title (having already booked one final this year as well as destroying the Dev Tour), his real ranking should rise to match. It's a shame for him that he's drawn Price, perhaps surprisingly without a title this year despite scoring numbers that are only bettered by old rival Ando and a couple of Lukes. Gerwyn will certainly take nothing for granted, but he will be a favourite - albeit in no way a guaranteed winner.

Dobey v Woodhouse/Williams - Good first round tie this one, Luke is just about doing enough to make the Grand Prix and is statistically round about where his ranking suggests he should be, whereas Scott hasn't really done a huge deal since that worlds run, but is putting up steady numbers, albeit a tad off Luke's level and not really translating into results, being some way off Leicester but at least looking safe for Minehead. Dobey however is playing truly elite level darts, there are only a small handful of players who are doing more statistically than he is, and it is surely a matter of time before he adds a real major to his resume, or a first Euro Tour for that matter. Are there easier draws? Yes. Will Dobey be concerned? Not a huge amount.

Noppert v Ratajski/Aspinall - Weird one. Krzysztof is looking pretty good, steady as ever, and still good enough that he can win titles. Nathan on the other hand withdrew last weekend, claiming he's not ready to return from injury yet and won't be back until he's properly healed, which took until all of Tuesday when he showed up at the Pro Tour. Nathan did nothing on either day so who knows what to think, against a competent operator like Ratajski you think it'll be a hard ask. Noppert is a very efficient second round opponent, who does much of what Ratajski does, but is just a little bit better on all areas, and it is maybe a surprise he only has the one title this year. Should be a hard fought game, but one where Danny has the edge.

van Veen v Beveridge/Barry - Darren's onto the Pro Tour but has yet to really make an impression after being a name that was there or there abouts for some years - he has one board win and that's it, and this is actually the first time he's made it through a qualifier this season. The numbers are pretty steady, so maybe it's been a bit of misfortune here and there. Keane is actually having a bit of a stinker of a season as well - at least at senior level as the Dev Tour is going alright, currently outside of the worlds looking in, scoring worse than Darren is, and off the back of a 6-0 reverse last time he was on stage. Don't think either will give Gian any serious problems, he's not playing quite as well as he has done at points in the past, but still extremely good and a tier above either of these, clearly in the discussion as to who'll be the next to win a first senior title.

Smith v van Barneveld/Edhouse - Real interesting first round game here. Barney showed he's more than good enough to win titles in 2024, because that's exactly what he did, while Ritchie was one dart away from getting to a final just this week, this is one that feels close on paper but one where RvB has the better numbers by a substantial enough clip where he should be favoured, although Edhouse is one of those players who maximises what he can do in terms of getting legs and then results. Smith is perhaps cooling a little bit these past few weeks, he's not in the top ten of pure scoring as I recall he was earlier in the year, but top sixteen is still clearly where he is at, and he's gone close at this level a couple of times this year to breaking through (although, of course, obviously already a major winner), and this isn't the worst section of the draw to start a run, although he will definitely have to work to open his account.

Pietreczko v Bialecki/Zonneveld - Sebastian hasn't really kicked on in 2024, although he's at least looking alright at the secondary level and does have one win on the Euro Tour this year. Niels looks very safe for the worlds despite seemingly having not done an enormous amount of note, seemingly not hitting a quarter so far this year but scoring a very steady 90 per turn which should be enough firepower to handle Bialecki right now. Ricardo has had a few flashes after a bit of a wretched run since he got his Euro Tour title almost twelve months ago, but having run to the final two weeks ago, there are signs he is picking things back up, not just in terms of that result, but the numbers are looking better than they have been, and while Niels is going to be a tough ask, this isn't one that Pietreczko can be written off in by any stretch of the imagination.

Bunting v Vegso/Dekker - The one home nation qualifier we know something about, Janos having made it through a through Eastern Europe qualifiers dating back as far as 2016, and I think he may well have won a game or two, but it's not been for a while as he's a new entrant in the FRH rankings. Cor is making a second appearance of the year having got to Riesa where he looked alright against Jose de Sousa, if he can replicate that level he should be OK to make it into round two, but in Bunting either of them is going to face far, far too strong an opponent, playing at a level where he can realistically win any tournament he enters and straight off a 8-7 final loss to Littler in midweek.

Schindler v Williams/Soutar - Jim continues to be frustrating in that his numbers are great, but he keeps missing enough of the tour that he can't really push on to get into the tricky majors which you feel should be within his grasp. The numbers are a bit down on last year though, and not streets ahead of Soutar, who did become a Pro Tour winner this season which has sparked confidence albeit also not really close to the Grand Prix. Tight game, could go either way, Schindler is a better player than both and is playing like someone with the belief gained from winning a title, but the differential is not enormous and I could legitimately see any of the three advance here.

Humphries v van Duijvenbode/Clemens - Maybe the biggest game of the season for both, with the two standing at 17th and 18th in the Pro Tour rankings for Leicester, albeit there is a bit of a gap to Woodhouse in sixteenth. The numbers are very tight, Dirk is scoring slightly better and with slightly more consistency, but it is real tough to call it. They'd have a great chance against most seeds, but the draw has not been kind to them when they really needed it to be, with Luke looking to up his already stellar levels as he winds up to defend his world title at the end of the year.

van Gerwen v Dolan/Lukeman - Meanwhile, Brendan is in one of the last few Pro Tour spots for Leicester, almost entirely on account of nicking a Pro Tour in May, his numbers are just fine for sure but he does seem to have a bit of a habit for fairly early exits, which is something Martin, whose statistics appear more or less identical to Dolan's, will be hoping to exploit, although in a situation where he's going to need something really special to get into anything he isn't already provisionally qualified for. May be the tightest match of the day this one. MvG returned to the winners circle on Wednesday, this after a surprisingly big gap that only sees him seeded fourteenth for this event, the numbers are still looking fine, albeit there's probably half a dozen players who you can legitimately say are playing better than he is right now - albeit these two aren't really in that conversation and van Gerwen ought to come through to a mouth-watering last sixteen clash this Sunday.

Rock v Wade/Weing - James is still hanging around that 20th spot or there abouts on most metrics, probably playing the best he has done for some time, and the good Matchplay run has certainly helped to stabilise his ranking. Lukas is newly on tour this year after being a name to watch about for for a couple of years, but has flattered to deceive with a fairly poor return and sub-88 a turn scoring seeing him some way off Ally Pally and also a way off being competitive in this opening round tie. Josh has wins at both Pro Tour and European Tour level this year, but the figures are not quite as astronomical as they were at peak Rock hype levels, and while they're better than James' numbers, it is not by anywhere near as much as you would think, so this could be a good competitive second round game, assuming Wenig doesn't play spoiler.

Cross v van den Bergh/Gilding - Final games, and we open with two UK Open winners, Dimitri is having a little bit of a resurgence after getting his, but is still barely in the top 32 in terms of scoring, is not in the top 32 of the Pro Tour rankings, and again has somewhat of a deceptively high actual ranking. Gilding is actually ahead of him on the Pro Tour rankings, but I'm not sure how as his numbers are nearly a couple of points per turn worse than Dimitri's and he presently sits outside of the Leicester places. Still capable of some good numbers (he had one really good game midweek against Nijman if you don't believe me), but just not often enough at this stage. Cross is going to be a tough nut for either of these. Still perenially underrated, he may just have drifted out of the current top ten on form, but a Euro Tour final win over Humphries this year indicates what he is capable of - which is usually going to be enough to win this one.

Will wait for lines for a bit longer and then post up bets.

Antwerp last 8

Weird session, and annoying one for the betting, Bunting losing a decider and Pietreczko putting together a great performance from nowhere, also saw Littler out and Humphries needing a decider, sets us back some more, but let's see if there's anything in the quarters:

Dobey/Woodhouse - Feel as if Luke's a tad undervalued here, I'm getting him in the high 30% range, whereas a price of 7/4 puts him in the low range, the vigless line says pretty much 2:1, so maybe there's a hint of value there, but Chris continues to look really good and Luke couldn't even average 90 today and needed a big comeback, so I think I can pass on this one.

Wright/Chisnall - Peter's playing a lot better than he has done over the past couple of weeks, but I really don't think it's enough that we should just abandon the large data which puts Chizzy at getting close to having a 65% chance to win the game, and there's nothing in the afternoon session that wants to dissuade me. I will temper the bet sizing given Peter's form, but still go with the 365 line, 0.1u Chisnall 4/5

Pietreczko/van Duijvenbode - Looks to me like the line is close enough on this one. I'm getting Dirk at just above 70% to take it, and the lines are typically in the 1/2, 4/9 sort of range. Maybe if Ricardo is regaining some form after a pretty extended spell of doing nothing, so we can maybe draw the projection in a couple of points, but that just brings things from "maybe the tiniest value on Dirk" to "no value on anyone, so we'll just ignore this one as well.

Searle/Humphries - Luke nearly went down to one Ryan, can he dodge another? Searle's good, and has enough that he's limiting Humphries' win projections to less than two in three, albeit only just. Everything is showing around the 9/4 sort of range, which might be undervaluing Searle slightly, but it's not by a great deal and going against the clear best player in the field, I don't want to push rather small edges.

Doubt I'm back before the semis with the NFL on, but if Wright does turn Chizzy over I wouldn't be surprised if going with the winner of Dobey/Woodhouse turns out to be a correct play.

We got a win! Then we gave it all back 20 minutes later. Antwerp last 16

Yay Clemens, ffs Schindler, two bets are for exactly zero (which, given how poorly we've been doing this year, actually increases our ROI lol), lines are all out for the last sixteen so let's dive straight into it.

Rock/Dobey - Yep, nothing, Dobey's projecting a tiny bit better and the odds reflect that.

Woodhouse/van Veen - Appears extremely close to me, maybe there is the tiniest of value on Woody at 5/4 but we're talking extremely fractional.

Bunting/Wright - 0.1u Bunting 8/11, there's not a big edge here but there's enough of an edge, I'm seeing it 65/35, happy to bring that in a couple of points because Wright is seemingly playing well, but with a good player like Bunting we can go.

Chisnall/Clemens - Looks a 55/45 in favour of Chizzy, market concurs, we move on rapidly.

Noppert/Pietreczko - 0.25u Noppert 1/2, this looks for all the world like a 1/3 or worse (for Ricardo) game, we will take the Coralbrokes numbers while they are there.

van Duijvenbode/Littler - Littler hype is perhaps a tad too much. I've got this as about 65/35, and Dirk is available at 5/2, which is close to tempting. Then again Wattimena is possibly a better player than DvD right now and Luke annihilated him.

Searle/Smith - Two fairly evenly matched, fun to watch operators. Seeing Ross maybe 55/45, market is also slightly favouring him, next.

Humphries/Joyce - I think the market may be underestimating Joyce's chances by a touch, but it's not enough for me to bet. Certainly wouldn't be putting Luke in an acca as while I think he'll win, obviously, the line doesn't look like value.

Should be back for the quarters.

Antwerp day 2

Weird to day, but I'll take that day 1 despite being 0-2 Happy enough for Dolan to get into a 5-4 lead in a first to six, and Schweyen, from 4-2, couldn't do much in leg 7 but had darts at double in all the remaining legs and may just have had a bit of finish line syndrome. Seems rare that they both fail from there, and it does look like alright identification of value, even if it didn't pay off this time. Real quick for day 2:

Bets:

0.1u Clemens 5/2 - projection has him right in the middle of 40% and 45%. Consistency is a little bit worse, so let's rail it in to 40%, At that price though (Hills), it's worth taking the chance I think, looked alright yesterday which is always a bonus.

0.25u Schindler 5/6 - massive overreaction to Wright winning something. Martin should take this nearly two times in three. Nearly every line on oddschecker has moved in Schindler's direction making finding the best price problematic (missed evens on 365 ffs) but this looks to be it. Through to 8/11 looks good.

Nearly:

Owen > van Veen - Robert has huge inconsistency which is going to drag down an otherwise tempting nearer to 45% than 40% projection. But how much does it do for a man playing well these last few weeks when 7/4 is available? I'm not convinced enough.

Dobey > Doets - Should be nearer 1/4 than 1/3. If Kevin can regain form quickly this likely becomes bad rapidly, but no real signs of that.

Chisnall > Wade - Dave might be fractionally undervalued. Would need more than a tick's movement to actually bet it though.

Wattimena > Littler - 3/1 is available, and he's playing well enough that I see him just over 30%. This is a true test of where he is actually at though, I get the sense Jermaine may slip up in key moments on occasion though.

Nope:

Joyce/Soutar

Rock/van der Wal

Heta/van Duijvenbode

Smith/de Decker

Searle/Cullen

Bunting/Williams

Price/Woodhouse

Noppert/van Barneveld

Humphries/Edhouse

Pietreczko/Gilding

Antwerp day 1

Alright, second of two back to back Euro Tours now, and we're into Belgium, the host nation qualifier took place earlier today so we've got fairly recent data on players we might otherwise not know a great deal about, let's see if we can find some bets, with oddschecker only offering partial coverage at this stage, we're just going to look at 365, Betfair and Laddies for best prices, if you can find better on something marginal or on an outright tip, don't let me stop you.

van der Wal/Bialecki - A bit of an odd one in that the card holder is probably the lesser known of the two players, Sebastian's talent had been well known for several years now but the breakthrough onto the main tour we're still waiting for. Jitse won a card at the start of the year, hasn't done a great deal, has an unimpressive record in terms of legs won-lost in the database, and despite 2024 seeming like a quiet year for Bialecki, there's enough to make me think he's easily 60/40 here. 365 have it at 4/5 which I think must be worth considering.

Kantele/Williams - Marko's another one with a quiet 2024 after a really good 2003, finishing a distant fifth on the SDC circuit which he dominated last year, but getting deep enough often enough that we have some data on him, enough to make us think that Scott, who has similarly not really done a great deal this year, should set off as something like an 80/20 favourite, which is a slight bit more favoured than the markets I'm looking at,  but not by a huge deal which we can think about betting on.

Tobback/Soutar - Tobback is a name I know very little about. It's not completely unfamiliar, but it is one of the two names that is new to the FRH rankings, so he's certainly not known from the last couple of years, and is not in my database (although IIRC the biggest Belgian WDF event had zero DartConnect etc coverage), so if he's better than an unknown, I don't know about it. The qual showed pretty consistent 85 sorts  of averages after the first couple of rounds where you can easily get dragged down by bad players, so maybe there's just enough there that Soutar, who has had a fine last few months, maybe isn't the auto print that I thought he might be at 15 in places.

Woodhouse/Bogaert - Luke we know all about, but we go back to the HNQ well for this one and this is someone I deffo know nothing about. The qual is all we have to work with, and it shows slightly more, he did get up to 87 once, but otherwise it was mostly the same as the previous guy's - nothing that should  trouble Luke in the slightest, but enough that 1/7 is not a gimmie given potential weirdness.

Ratajski/Owen - Back to players with cards here, Krzysztof we know all about, Robert's a bit less of a known player but is best known for a great UK Open run a few years back, both had an alright cameo last week, and the projection comes in surprisingly close at 55/45 in favour of the Pole, although we can temper that given Owen has fairly wild inconsistency. Everywhere pricing this at 7/4 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Wattimena/Raman - Now we get to a card versus non-card game, although it feels like it shouldn't be one, Jermaine has been doing decent work for some time, although not really threatening to get back to where he used to be when he was on the verges of the top 16, while Brian was extremely high, if not #1, in the BDO/WDF system (fuck knows what it was at the time) when he got a card, which he didn't really capitalise on. Raman is still clearly a more than competent players and the numbers in the quali show that, but can they rise to the level of that which Jermaine has been playing at for some time? Market had what I thought was a good line at 2/1 Raman, until I did a fact check on Jermaine's numbers and they're a LOT better than I thought they were, so I'll gladly avoid this one.

Clemens/Lukeman - Back to card on card violence between two players on the outside looking in of the Grand Prix, Clemens the last man out as is with Martin about 4k behind, so a big game for both. I'm getting this about 60/40 in favour of the German who is still unbelievably looking for his first PDC title, the market in some places has it tighter but not by enough to start to consider betting.

Gurney/Edhouse - The afternoon session finishes with two players who by contrast are looking really good for Leicester right now. Daryl had a great run last weekend and will be looking to replicate that if he can, but Ritchie is playing well enough that I'm only seeing this at around a 55/45 edge for Gurney. The market is giving Gurney a bigger edge than that, which I guess is understandable in the circumstances, but nobody I can see is offering up a comparable line the other way where we can think about taking Edhouse for value.

Schweyen/Doets - Last of the home nation qualifiers here, Francois is one of the two (Raman being the other) who was already in the FRH rankings, having got to the last two Belgian Darts Opens, losing 6-3 to de Sousa last year and doing a fair bit better in 2022 where he lost 6-4 to Klaasen. The quali showed some bright spots, particularly in the last two rounds, which makes me think that Kevin, while talented, could be tested here given his recent mediocre form. There's enough of a combination of factors here that I'm going for a small yolo stab, 0.1u Schweyen 11/4

Clayton/van Duikvenbode - To the other end of the spectrum we go, between two players who have been struggling for form throughout the year but may be turning things around more recently. I'm finding this one very close, maybe too close to call, Dirk projects ever so slightly better, albeit with a consistency disadvantage, so I'm happy to call this one a coin toss. Best price of 11/10 on DvD is frankly not the slightest bit tempting.

de Decker/Veenstra - Another Belgium/Netherlands game, this one between de Decker, who made the breakthrough at Pro Tour level about a month ago, and Veenstra, who has enough game that he can clearly do the same, even if he's not one of the top 3-5 names I'd list right now. Mike is actually projecting safely over 60% in this one, so while I thought a price of 4/7 was initially a "wait, what" moment, it's not unreasonable in the slightest. 

van Barneveld/Kuivenhoven - An all Dutch affair which I want to say we've seen moderately recently, but I can't pick where, there is a clear known player and experience differential, but the actual edge in terms of quality right now is really hard to judge given a huge consistency difference in RvB's favour. Fortunately nobody is offering any sort of line on Maik that I'd even start to think about.

Menzies/Wade - Both players clearly well known at this stage, Cameron being boosted by Edgar tipping him up in a recent video (to be fair Matt was correct on all his players named), let's get staright into the numbers, Menzies projects 60/40, so the game is a very easy pass given the market.

Gilding/van den Bergh - Match up of UK Open winners here, although I would guess one might be slightly better received than the other. Taking into account all the factors and statistics this looks like one where Gilding pulls it out one in three times. Market is slightly more bullish on Andrew, but it's really only fractional.

Dolan/Wright - Thankfully finishing with a bunch of card holder games, Dolan should be safe for Leicester but would like another win or two to make things safe, while Wright did another one of those weekends just to keep those of us writing him off on edge. But it doesn't allow him to catch up to Brendan's numbers - which still give the History Maker a 55/45 edge. Will only go with a small stab on 365 because confidence can be huge, but 0.1u Dolan 2/1

Cullen/Rydz - And we finish with two players who are infuriating to read or project. So we'll keep it short. Projection gives Rydz the edge, but only just. We can't beat 11/10, so not going to touch it.

So just the two plays, but a fair bit there to think about.

FRH ranking update

The last ome of these was from before the Matchplay, so it's been a while and there's been some big moves as a result of this update incorporating a major as well as several other events.

1 Luke Humphries

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Michael Smith

4 Rob Cross

5 Damon Heta (UP 1)

6 Luke Littler (UP 3)

7 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 2)

8 Peter Wright (UP 2)

9 Jonny Clayton (UP 2)

10 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 3)

11 Stephen Bunting (UP 1)

12 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)

13 Chris Dobey (UP 1)

14 James Wade (NEW)

15 Ross Smith (UP 5)

16 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 8)

17 Josh Rock (DOWN 1)

18 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)

19 Danny Noppert (DOWN 4)

20 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)

Ando is the player to drop out for Wade, although he's less than a grand outside and should be back in with a decent result soon. Aspinall's layoff is mostly causing his drop, while Noppert has mainly had a few players just above him have a big hit since the last update. Wright's back into the top 10 after his win at the weekend, Clayton is mainly using the win he had right before the Matchplay, while Littler continues to have a much better depreciation curve than most, although his worlds money is now being worked on. Lower down, Menzies is into the top 40, and the impressive Dom Taylor is closing in on a top 64 place. Expect an update on Thursday ahead of Antwerp.

No more updates today

Disappointing 0-3 yesterday, often happens when you're taking all underdogs but still annoying when it does. Also way behind on tracking the event - yesterday was a nightmare in terms of travel which severely limited the amount of time I had  to notate the games, and then much of that was taken up by trying to decode yet another sportradar failure in the Dobey/Mansell game - we got there in the end, but at so much expense of time. Without that I might have been able to push through and get the remaining games in, but it's not been possible. As such I'm not going to recommend any plays, as I can't see how well half the remaining field has done, which is kind of important when, looking at data prior to Saturday, we have a lot that looks on a first glance to be marginal.

Looking at things on a raw level, Schindler, Noppert, van Veen, Ratajski, Kenny and Searle look a bit undervalued. Take into account what you have seen yesterday and do with it what you will. I'll be back probably tomorrow with a FRH ranking update.