Rock v Edhouse/Wattimena - Good first round game between two players kind of in similar spots but one is actually in the majors right now, Jermaine could sneak in with a very deep run but it seems like too much to ask for right now. Reads about 60/40 Jermaine, going 70/30 more form based, might play a bit tighter than that in theory, and Rock would only just about have 55% against Wattimena in round two.
Cross v Gilding/Pres - Know nothing of Pres. Beat a few known players in the quali but couldn't average much more than 95, and that tourney was in June so who knows if it's relevant. Gilding should be fine and then between a 2/1 and 3/1 dog against Rob, fairly routine stuff I think.
Humphries v Wright/Veenstra - Peter will look to continue a bit of a purple patch, Richard is a tough opponent though, getting 45% in longer data and 40% in shorter data, which may be even less in reality with how things have been going. Luke should naturally be a substantial favourite, more than three in four in the big data set but Wright may well be pushing things over 30% on form.
Littler v Ratajski/Stoeckli - Bruno's a new name, didn't manage much below a low 80 average today, so can't think Krzysztof will have too much trouble, I think the next match is a redo from earlier this year, the Pole has enough to be pushing up to near a one in three shot to make the Sunday.
Bunting v White/Smith - Seems like forever since we've seen Ian, and this is an awkward draw, not seeing much better than 30% and that's form based, Michael goes above 75% the more data we take, and we'd expect Bunting to be a small, 55/45 sort of favourite in round two if Smith comes through.
Schindler v Ostlund/van Duijvenbode - Anton won the quali back in July, beating nine dart hero Cor Dekker to get here, but we're lacking data on him, the qual numbers were not great, he clearly can't have done much of anything in the SDC and Dirk should be fine to face Schindler, against whom he might actually be a small favourite and heading the right way.
Smith v de Decker/Hall - Mike's going along solidly and does actually need a win here to lock up a Grand Prix spot, although the permutations to put him out would be freakish. Hall could do with a win for the worlds, he's within a couple of grand so a win here and a good midweek would set him up nicely for the final stretch. but he only looks maybe one in three, possibly down to under 30% more recently to do that. Mike against Ross is weighted in the number 2 seed's favour as you would expect, but Mike has enough to be no worse than 40/60 such is his level of play.
Pietreczko v Cullen/van Barneveld - Joe's another one who looks like he should be in the Grand Prix but is not guaranteed, not a great draw and current form is pushing Barney up from just the right side of a coinflip to just over 60%. Ricardo had a terrible game midweek and withdrew last weekend, so I'm assuming he's turning up for the wages and nothing else.
Noppert v Menzies/Clayton - This one should be fun. form player from all year against someone coming back into form, Clayton creeps up from the low 40's to high 40's as we get more form based so this should be tight, and I find Menzies and Noppert pretty much impossible to split so this really is anyone's section.
van Veen v Rydz/Dolan - Callan had a little bit of a run midweek, but it's surely too little too late for Leicester as he needs to bink. Dolan could do with one more win to lock a spot up, and that seems maybe unlikely - he's only 45/55 on long data, but more form based Rydz jumps out to more than two in three. Wild stuff. Rydz is 40/60 against last week's finalist regardless of sample so that swing says more about Dolan than anythin.
Price v van den Bergh/Wade - Probably hard to find value here. Wade's a touch better, going from low 50's to high 50's as we get more form based, while if he was to play Price it goes from 60/40 in Gerwyn's favour to a coinflip, James is another with a decent midweek run.
Dobey v Woodhouse/Nijman - Luke is the last man in Leicester right now but has a bastard draw to try to get the points he needs to make it safe, Wessel playing so well that he projects over 60% which pushes up to near 70% as his form takes hold. He's that good that he's basically only a coin flip against Dobey!
Heta v Razma/Fehlmann - Alex was unable to seriously threaten the scorers in the qualifier, sticking to low 80's which isn't going to cut it against Madars who had a fine midweek, but will need to be on top form against Damon, who is showing as almost a 3-1 favourite, the Aussie just being that much better than the Latvian.
Searle v Hertig/Meikle - Ryan's gone back to showing flashes and then not doing much in between after a spell where it looked like he might be gaining some consistency, but he shouldn't need much in round one against a qualifier who didn't get out of the seventies for averages. So we should get a Ryan derby, where Searle is not projecting as big a favourite as I thought, around 60/40 on the bigger sample which actually goes down, but this feels like a consistency weirdness line.
Chisnall v Walpen/Aspinall - Marcel is the one guy we really know who came through this afternoon, and had one good game where he got into the 90's so showed some upside despite mostly looking as average as the rest of the players that got through. Aspinall is hard to call right now, midweek really didn't tell us a great deal as to where his health is truly at, so this seems like a section to simply avoid. Chizzy, a midweek winner, probably isn't concerned.
Gurney v Sedlacek/Williams - Two players in round one where it seems like we've talked about them a lot less this season than in previous ones, but Karel is perhaps surprisingly projecting the better, about 55/45 regardless. He's also slightly favoured over Gurney, which is perhaps a weird one as it feels like Daryl has been playing better (heck, he's got himself in the seeds here), but this is probably the one section of the draw where all three outcomes are in play.
Bets tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment