Monday 15 April 2024

ET3 aftermath

So it's Schindler that gets a first Euro Tour title, and a first senior title of any description, it's been well overdue and very well deserved given how he played this weekend - let's see what it's done to the FRH rankings:

1 Luke Humphries
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Michael Smith
4 Rob Cross
5 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
6 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
7 Damon Heta
8 Peter Wright
9 Dave Chisnall
10 Jonny Clayton
11 Dimitri van den Bergh
12 Stephen Bunting
13 Chris Dobey
14 Luke Littler
15 Joe Cullen
16 Danny Noppert
17 Ryan Searle (UP 1)
18 James Wade (DOWN 1)
19 Ross Smith (NEW)
20 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)

Price's final sees him up exactly 3k compared to Aspinall, while Searle making the final session puts him a bit less than that ahead of Wade. Smith edges out Ando and Rock with a good run to get back into the 20. Schindler is now up to 24 after his win, not far behind Gilding for the 23 spot, and more importantly he's now the highest ranked German, one place ahead of Clemens. Final day runs for Richard Veenstra and Cameron Menzies see them inch up into the mid 40's, Edhouse's final session sees him back into the top 60.

Really good event for the betting - we put nine bets in play and won seven of them to claim a unit of profit and get into the black for the season, however as four of those winning bets were on Schindler and Menzies, I do wonder if we've lost a bit of an opportunity going forward. We'll have to see again on Friday - Menzies isn't there for that one but Schindler is along with a pretty exciting selection of qualifiers. We've got a great selection of youth with Barry and Littler, Edhouse is back again, Perez will make a debut (I think), we get to see early Challenge Tour contenders in Grbavac and Roetzsch, it looks like it should be a good one. I may update in midweek to do a "next players to win at this level" post, it'll depend on time though and I might wait until the start of May once we've got another couple of Euro Tours in the books, as it feels like there's a lot of players that could break through at that level real soon. Be back Thursday in any case for thoughts as we head into Sindelfingen.

Sunday 14 April 2024

ET3 quarters

The Menzies money printing streak comes to an end, really just missed doubles, missing three clear in multiple legs (and busting when just looking to hit big 3 to get another two clear) isn't something to make a habit of. Oh well, we move on to the quarters, looking at things I have the following projections - Schindler 61/39 Noppert, Searle 44/56 Dobey, Bunting 70/30 Edhouse and Price 61/39 Smith. Will reign the Schindler one in a tad due to consistency, the rest all seem pretty much in line with each other. As such, I'll take 0.1u Schindler 6/5 which is on 365 right now, the Dobey and Bunting games look close enough to correct just looking at the one market, 365 have Smith at 2/1 which I'd be thinking about were it not for Price's obscenely good display against Pietreczko.

ET3 round 3

This is real quick as I'm late up this morning:

Veenstra/Schindler - Market may be finally taking notice of Schindler. I'm seeing it about a one in three shot for Veenstra, 13/8 clearly is not of interest, Schindler being slightly longer than 1/2 isn't bad but there's not the edge there.

Aspinall/Noppert - Looks about a 60/40 in the favour of the Asp for me, looked really good yesterday, 4/5 is pretty close to being worth a play but it's not quite there for me and I don't think it ever gets any longer than that.

Heta/Searle - Kind of a similar spot where we don't quite have the edge, but it's close. I'm seeing Ryan as just short of a 55% favourite, we can get even money, going with it isn't bad but again, I'd want slightly more to recommend a play officially.

Clemens/Dobey - Dobey 60/40 for me, so we're again in the ballpark where we can consider looking at Clemens. 7/4 is not a bad bet, but there's not quite enough there for the third game running, and that's without considering just how fantastic Chris played today.

Humphries/Bunting - Stephen's certainly a live dog here. Luke's not even projecting to win this two out of three, I've got the Bullet as fractionally over 35%. That said Humphries is 1/2 so with vig it's a clear move on quickly spot.

Cross/Edhouse - Rob's the better player here, around 75/25, and he is priced at 1/3. Ritchie's doing OK of late and it was a fantastic kill to win, but the market does look to have his value correct right now.

Price/Pietreczko - Same price as the above with Gerwyn being 1/3. I think this could even be a tick shorter, I'm getting Price as a touch closer to 80% than 20%, but that's not even as good a spot as the Aspinall/Searle thoughts, chuck in the crowd and I can ignore this one easily enough.

Menzies/Smith - Pure coinflip for me. Cammy needed to ride his luck slightly, but got there. Ross was generally pretty solid on the legs he won (where O'Connor averaged over a ton), but was mediocre on the five legs Willie won, a really, really slow start to go 4-1 down. I think we can go small here, 0.1u Menzies 11/8, it's a couple of extra percent which I think is enough to open the wallet and try to repeat what we had yesterday.

Saturday 13 April 2024

ET3 round two

Ok first day. Evans completely didn't turn up against Rydz who absolutely was there for the taking, but Edhouse was comfortable, Menzies was mostly comfortable and Clemens rode his luck but got there, we take those and have booked a small profit for the day. Onto round two now:

Smith v O'Connor - Willie was OK yesterday but nothing special, but it was enough to beat King, Ross is going to be a big step up but I'm thinking he can get home one in three times, maybe a fraction more. At 7/4 we're not taking a punt though. 

Heta v Rydz - Callan was very rusty yesterday but Evans couldn't capitalise. Try that again and Heta's off the stage in 10-15 minutes tops. I've got Rydz's chances as a little bit better than the 2/1 you can get, but with the unpredictable nature of his game and a right poor first game, we're not touching it with a barge pole.

Searle v Gurney - Daryl just did a professional job against an interesting qualifier, can't really draw much of anything from that one. Searle should make for a good contest, think the market is marginally overvaluing Daryl but not enough where we can start to think about taking Ryan.

Ratajski v Dobey - Chris looked, if not in top gear, certainly solid in a trivial win over Dylan Slevin and rightly comes into this one as a favourite. Maybe a bit too much of a favourite, Ratajski is still a really good player and the line should probably be 6/4 and not 7/4 for me, but I'd need slightly more than that to open the clip, 2/1 probably.

Noppert v van den Bergh - Dimitri was a bit up and down in round one but never really threatened, and comes into a game with Danny as more or less his equal. 5/4 is really close to a bet on the Belgian - if he had shown a bit more yesterday, or if Noppert wasn't coming off a Pro Tour win, I'd probably go small, and wouldn't dissuade anyone wanting to take that price on for all intents and purposes a coinflip.

Bunting v Unterbuchner - Michael caused pretty much the only upset yesterday to dump Luke Woodhouse out, didn't look as good as we have seen him in the past, but it was OK. It wasn't enough to make me think he has much of a chance against Stephen, 1/5 seems about fair to me.

Clayton v Aspinall - Nathan could easily have been dumped out by Owen Bates, who hit a very nice 350 out in six, but then missed match darts, so maybe a good omen for the Asp? He's rated in the market as having low 60% chances, which to me is really too low, Clayton is a name player but his level of play has been average at best and this looks a 70/30. As such, 0.25u Aspinall 8/13 on Coralbrokes, typically available 4/7 also looks fine.

Smith v Edhouse - Ritchie had a couple of good legs against Jitse, but generally didn't need to push too hard to get the easy win. He'll need to up it today, he's rated just shorter than 3/1 which looks fine to me.

Pietreczko v Wade - James wasn't bad against de Decker, and now comes into a game with Ricardo where neither myself nor the market can find any real differences between the players. As such, easy no bet.

Chisnall v Veenstra - Richard was made to work by Andrew Gilding, but looked more than competent and he has more than enough game to take this match from Chisnall just over 35% of the time in my estimation. We can't even get 2/1 though, so we're not interested in bets. 

Cullen v Schindler - Martin was pretty much flying, just having the one duff leg which the qualifier was able to nick, so seems in good form into a game with Joe, who's outperformed projections a couple of times but has been fairly quiet for a while. I'm getting Martin as a near 2-1 favourite - even if we say that we are wildly underestimating Cullen and he actually has 10% more chances than that, it's still a play. 0.25u Schindler evs 

Price v Dolan - Brendan looked really good against Gotthardt, who wasn't playing bad at all and just unfortunate to run into Dolan playing as he did, against probably half the field we're still talking about Kai today. Gerwyn is a different story, if Brendan continues this level he's more than capable of causing a few problems, but the 2/5 line for Price seems accurate to me as to how often the former world champ lets that happen.

Rock v Menzies - Cameron won all his legs in 15 darts or legs and was averaging in the mid 90s in the ones he didn't, so the game is on. That is more than enough to trouble Rock, who we still love, but such is the level of play from Menzies I don't think Josh should be the favourite here. It looks close still, call it 55/45, but that makes things easy enough for us, 0.25u Menzies 13/10, we absolutely take odds against here.

Humphries v de Sousa - Jose came through with a good late spurt to put away a spirited Cor Dekker, who played well himself to keep things tight at 3-3, and there's enough there on that display to indicate that he might be able to ask some questions of Luke in this one. I've got it slightly tighter than the 4/1 that is available, but not by much. The edge isn't there to fire, but if you want an underdog play then I don't think it's -EV at all.

van Duijvenbode v Clemens - Touched on Clemens above, he nicked the scrappy legs and otherwise had just about enough to get home, and we have another game that is too close to call. Can't see value in this one, Gabriel is slightly odds against in places, but I've likewise got Dirk as a really tiny favourite. In Germany, I guess you're not losing money in the long term if you take Clemens here but that's really gambling for the sake of it to me.

Cross v van Veen - Gian had things a little bit easier against Barney this time, first four legs were not great from either player, but he picked things up albeit not really hitting his stride at any point. Will need to clean things up a bit against Cross, it's absolutely a game he can win and it looks around 60/40 to me, I'm thinking Rob's chances are being overstated slightly at 8/13, but there isn't the value there to go on GvV.

So three bets, they all seem solid to me, let's clean up.

Friday 12 April 2024

ET3 round 1 bets

van der Wal/Edhouse - Think this is good enough to be worth a play, 0.25u Edhouse 4/9, Ritchie's in good form and Jitse hasn't done a great deal this year, this looks to me to be at least 75/25 and as such 4/9 is a take.

Gotthardt/Dolan - No play, maybe there's some angle here as Brendan's shorter than 1/3 and Kai has shown enough of late to make me think that he's a live dog, but I'd want a bit more before I'd take a stab.

Unterbuchner/Woodhouse - Same sort of prices here, think this one is closer as I'm thinking Michael's probably a touch more likely to win than Kai is, but still not confident enough against a decent opponent to play it.

Masek/van den Bergh - I mean there's a couple of places that are offering 1/8 which surely isn't that bad?

Gurney/Klingelhoefer - Not really interested in this one. The qualifier is not good and Gurney's 1/14 at best.

Veenstra/Gilding - I think they've got who has the tiny edge the wrong way round, but as both are so tiny we only have a tiny edge, and we don't play tiny edges.

Rydz/Evans - 0.1u Evans 7/4, I took better than 2.8 on the exchanges yesterday immediately on seeing the draw, but he is certainly live enough against in fairness a dangerous but inconsistent opponent.

O'Connor/King - Looks to be round about the right line. Mervyn's maybe a touch undervalued which is likely just the market not quite getting to pace with both players' relative form this season, but it's only by a tick so nothing worth punting here.

de Sousa/Dekker - Cor's half tempting here. Against an opponent who's not been outstanding when you're getting close to 4/1 and the underdog has shown a little bit of recent form is a formula that works sometimes, but I'd ideally want 9/2, maybe 5/1 before I go with it.

Dobey/Slevin - Chris is pretty short in the market as expected, perhaps he could be a bit shorter even compared to what he is, but it'd be a pretty slim bit of value that we'd be pushing and I wouldn't even be certain it's there in the first place.

Dueckers/Schindler - Martin's big odds on, that seems fine.

de Decker/Wade - Market can barely separate the two, but they do correctly have Mike as being the favourite. 5/6 would be kind of a marginal play, if you're aggressive then I don't hate it, I would probably want 10/11 before I actually recommend a play but I don't think I'll ever see it and if anything the exchanges are bullish on de Decker.

Menzies/Whitlock - 0.25u Menzies 8/13, took even better than this on the exchange yesterday, 4/7 also looks more than OK for this one, that's just a case of how much better Cameron is right now.

van Veen/van Barneveld - Line seems near enough to me. Gian's better, but he's not that much better, this is pretty similar to the de Decker game where if you have more risk tolerance than me you can push 4/5, but I won't officially recommend the play.

Clemens/Wright - 0.1u Clemens 11/10, there's a couple of places which are offering this price including Hills which I think is enough to make a pushy small stab. The extra couple of percent compared to van Veen or de Decker, plus the intangibles of Wright having to make an awkward trip (having been to Riesa I would not want to get from Birmingham to Riesa in under 24 hours) and Clemens being at home gives me enough confidence to play it.

Bates/Aspinall - Half tempted with Owen, 3/1 I don't think is awful and I wouldn't disagree with anyone that says go for it, I just don't know where his confidence is at really.

So four plays, good luck everyone.

Thursday 11 April 2024

Into Riesa

Running into a busy period of the schedule, and an important one as we start getting closer and closer to the Matchplay, the next three weekends having half the Euro Tour events before the cutoff so a huge chunk of the money is at stake this month. Before then, of course, we had a couple of Pro Tour events, with Chris Dobey and Danny Noppert being both surprising (given the strength of the fields) and unsurprising (given they're both bloody good players in their own rights) winners, which has done the following to the FRH rankings (which include minimum money for ET3):

1 Luke Humphries
2 Michael van Gerwen (UP 1)
3 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
4 Rob Cross
5 Nathan Aspinall
6 Gerwyn Price
7 Damon Heta (UP 1)
8 Peter Wright (DOWN 1)
9 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)
10 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
11 Dimitri van den Bergh
12 Stephen Bunting (UP 1)
13 Chris Dobey (UP 2)
14 Luke Littler
15 Joe Cullen (DOWN 3)
16 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
17 James Wade (DOWN 1)
18 Ryan Searle
19 Gary Anderson (UP 1)
20 Josh Rock (NEW)

The big one is van Gerwen overtaking Smith by less than 100 points, but Smith can regain the number 2 spot just by winning one game at ET3 with van Gerwen absent. Heta's bump appears to just be to do with Wright being in bad form, Chizzy and Clayton being in a similar spot. Bunting has had some OK decent runs, obviously Dobey and Noppert won this week, while Rock made a final and Ando's getting the benefits of good form.

So, onto Riesa, and we've got no less than five players who'll enter the FRH rankings so a few names who we'll not have great data on, but they're not all unfamiliar, let's go through in running order.

Jitse van der Wal v Ritchie Edhouse (Michael Smith) - Jitse's a fairly new tour card holder, and has done well to win through to here given he's had a bad start, with just one win and pretty miserable numbers, and plays Edhouse who got qualification to two future Euro Tours yesterday and has had some pretty nice performances, and rates something like an 80/20 favourite albeit on rather limited data. Smith I believe is who Edhouse beat on TV a couple of years back at something like the PC Finals, and he's merely been OK for someone with world champion money on his rankings, maybe only being about a 70/30 favourite against Ritchie.

Kai Gotthardt v Brendan Dolan (Gerwyn Price) - Kai is a name we've seen occasionally, I thought he'd made the Euro Tour more than once before but that's what it looks like, we've also seen him in things like the German Superleague and he's off to a pretty good start on the Challenge Tour, so maybe showing signs of improvement, although he only peaked in the mid 80's in the quali, which is likely not going to be enough to trouble someone as competent as Dolan, who's not had a bad start to 2024 relatively speaking. Price can't complain with this draw and he does like the event, and is doing well enough that he's closer to a three in four than two in three shot for this one.

Alexander Masek v Dimitri van den Bergh (Danny Noppert) - Masek won the Eastern qualifier, and will make his debut having got through to the second stage of Q-School but otherwise being basically unknown, and apart from a real good first round win, didn't threaten much more than mid 80's at any point in that quali, which against someone with the renewed confidence of a recent major win just isn't going to cut it. Another player with recent confidence will of course be Noppert, and that second round game rates as too close to call.

Richard Veenstra v Andrew Gilding (Dave Chisnall) - Stupidly good game to have in the afternoon session of round one, but that's the new quali rules for you, Andrew had a nice run in the last Euro Tour while Veenstra hasn't really kicked on massively after a good worlds, but still looks good enough to make this one an effective coinflip with Goldfinger having only the tiniest of edges. Chisnall won't particularly like this matchup in round two whoever comes through, but still should be in the 60-65% range against either of them, which is an edge but not a game he can remotely take for granted.

Daryl Gurney v Patrick Klingelhoefer (Ryan Searle) - Patrick's pretty much unknown, first appearing in the PDC for real at this Q-School, not making stage two but he does have three Challenge Tour cashes now and makes his debut, albeit only getting higher than the low 80's in one round of the qualifier, so he may well not be able to put up too much resistance against Gurney, who's looked pretty good as he looks to hold in a race to partner Rock at the World Cup. Searle is going to be an interesting opponent, he's better but not that much better and a second round game only gives Searle slightly closer to 60% than 55% chances.

Callan Rydz v Lee Evans (Damon Heta) - Rydz had a couple of good early runs to start 2024 off but has tailed off a bit since then, while Evans has merely been steady if not spectacular, but doing enough to be possible value with Callan only rating around a 55/45 favourite in this opening round encounter. Heta shouldn't be too displeased with this draw, but they both look dangerous enough opponents to warrant having a chance somewhere in the 30% range, Rydz naturally being a bit higher, so it's a good but not perfect draw for the Aussie.

Willie O'Connor v Mervyn King (Ross Smith) - Willie has been pretty average on the floor so far this season, but it's a bit more than King's been doing as Mervyn's battling to save his tour card, although King did at least have the consolation of a solid UK Open run to give him a bit more of a chance. It's the sort of game he needs to win and he's got around a 45% chance to do so, so certainly not out of things, and Ross is kind of in the same spot of "I'll take it but it could be better" in terms of draws, he's just dropped out of the FRH top 20 but, like Heta again, has got somewhere in the 60% chances to win against either opponent, so may be able to nick the spot back dependent on other results, or claim it back outright, a final session run ought to be enough for that.

Michael Unterbuchner v Luke Woodhouse (Stephen Bunting) - Michael is in a second appearance of the season, which is a nice return to form for someone who was making a bit of a name for himself in the BDO days and probably has the best numbers of any of the qualifiers we've looked at so far, not breaking 90 but being closer to that than 80 for the most part. Woodhouse had a good UK Open and has had a good run in midweek as he looks to lock down a Matchplay spot, he's in good shape and ought to be able to get through this one, but then Bunting in round two, although maybe not doing quite as well as he might have done in 2024 given his red hot form towards the end of the year, is going to be a tricky one with the Bullet being closer to 65% than 60% to advance past Woody to a potential matchup with the world champion in the last sixteen.

Jose de Sousa v Cor Dekker (Luke Humphries) - de Sousa is now out of the FRH top 32 and hasn't really been doing enough to make us think he'll be out of the top 32 proper this time next year, currently solidly on the outside looking into the Matchplay reckoning and it's not ridiculous to think he won't be seeded for the worlds this season. Dekker however isn't the worst opponent as the Norwegian makes a first Euro Tour since 2019, he's a name that's been known for some time who's had World Cup appearances, but was wildly up and down in the quali with a couple of 90's but one game down in the low 70's, although did back up making this event in weekend 1 of the Nordic series with making the final of an event last weekend. Jose should have enough, but Humphries should easily win the second round game at least 75% of the time.

Chris Dobey v Dylan Slevin (Krzysztof Ratajski) - An all card holder battle here, Dobey's right in form for reasons stated above, while Dylan has had an OK start to 2024 but nothing quite as good as what he had in early 2023, which is looking more and more like an outlier, albeit in a career that's still very much in its infancy with plenty of time to grow some more consistency to the game as we know the peak game is pretty good. Dobey ought to be extremely comfortable here, a projection of nearly 85% may be a touch overkill but not completely outrageous, and in Ratajski he's got one of the better seeds he could get and looks about a 60/40 favourite in that second round game, assuming he gets past Slevin.

Jan Dueckers v Martin Schindler (Joe Cullen) - Dueckers is another player who's pretty much unknown, did Q-School but didn't make stage two, and did play the German leg of the Challenge Tour picking up one mincash. In the quali he had a good 6-2 win with a 90 average against the in form Franz Roetzsch, but was below 80 in three of the other four games and only just over in the other one, so it's hard to see Schindler having problems here. Cullen ought to be a good test, the projections I'm getting are showing Cullen as a fairly significant underdog with having just a one in three chance, but he's not actually looked bad when we've seen him, so despite pretty middling results in 2024 it might play out a bit closer than what a 2-1 game ought to look like.

Mike de Decker v James Wade (Ricardo Pietreczko) - Real interesting section which could go any way. de Decker got qualification for another Euro Tour this past week, has made the final day once already this season, and is within touching distance of a Matchplay return, while Wade is not actually guaranteed to get there himself and hasn't had the most fantastic start to the season, and actually comes into this game as just less than a 40/60 dog, that's just how competent de Decker is right now. Ricardo isn't a bad seed to draw and has had his moments over the past few months, and actually rates as possibly the worst player of the three, being a 65/35 dog to de Decker and being on the wrong end of a coinflip against Wade, although he will have the benefit of a first game on evening session crowd which always helps.

Cameron Menzies v Simon Whitlock (Josh Rock) - Menzies is continuing to play really good stuff as we move into 2024, with some moderately good runs, while Whitlock is struggling to put up results, and is now out of the FRH top 50 and rates as less than a one in four shot against Cameron, that's just how good he's playing right now (and/or how middle of the road Simon has been of late). Rock made another final this week so looks to be playing well - but actually projects as a tiny underdog if he were to face Menzies in the second round.

Gian van Veen v Raymond van Barneveld (Rob Cross) - Didn't we have this in the last event? Why yes, yes we did. van Veen won that one 6-5, and that sort of close scoreline doesn't look out of the question, with the younger Dutch player projecting up towards, but not quite at, 60%. Really could go either way. Cross would have a similar sort of edge against van Veen, so while Rob will be looking for a deep run and to go one better than he did in Belgium, this is a nasty draw and while there's a logical order to the players in terms of chances of getting through, making an argument that any of them might progress would not be ridiculous in the slightest.

Gabriel Clemens v Peter Wright (Dirk van Duijvenbode) - Clemens is still continuing to look for a first tour win, and hasn't really been getting close this year so far with just the one board win. Wright's been a bit more up and down with a couple of semi final runs, but nobody can realistically say that Peter is anywhere near his best game and we may well be at a stage where that best game is forever in the past - although he still has enough game to be competitive, albeit Clemens does project as a 55/45 favourite despite a lack of results in 2024. Dirk has had a final run on the floor and is probably off our do not touch list, and looks to be flipping against Clemens and having a similar edge against Wright as the German does in round one, so this may well be the tightest mini section of the lot.

Owen Bates v Nathan Aspinall (Jonny Clayton) - Tough draw for the Master here, Owen hasn't gotten off to a fantastic start on the tour with more first round losses than wins and not even a board final to his name yet, but he got through the quali here for what appears to be a debut on this stage. Aspinall's no joke though and being in the playoff spots more than half way through the Premier League is seriously good play. Nathan is actually only projecting around 70/30, which does surprise me and feels like an underestimate, Owen's numbers are a bit inconsistent. Then again, so are Aspinall's. Clayton it feels is someone who's just there right now and kind of making up the numbers of the top sixteen, feels like some time since he's done anything hugely notable - probably since the Matchplay game he lost to Aspinall to be honest. Aspinall actually rates about the same sort of edge to repeat that result as he does against Bates, which seems kind of nuts but Clayton's only just scoring over 90 a turn since the start of September, which is behind a lot of players who are not even in the top 32 in the world right now.

Bets tomorrow morning, don't know if oddschecker will make things easy for us but lines are at least out.

Monday 1 April 2024

Day 3 quick bets

Rock/Smith - Got quite excited when I saw Rock being quoted at 2/1 on oddschecker on VC, but naturally that was quickly corrected to 11/8, that I don't think is an awful play with there not being much of anything to choose between the players and I'll go small, 0.1u Rock 11/8 which is also there on 365, I would probably go a bit larger if I could get longer than 6/4 given how good Smith looked in round two.

Price/Searle - Not touching it, I'm seeing Ryan as having a touch over a one in three shot, and he's best priced at 7/4 so nothing doing here.

Cross/Noppert - Maybe there's a sliver of value on Rob in this one, I'm seeing him just shy of a two in three chance, and some of the spread companies have him at longer than 4/6, if you've got money there then I don't think that's bad, but the traditional bookies aren't giving better than 4/6 which isn't quite fat enough particularly in the context of Danny looking fantastic in round two.

Humphries/Joyce - Line looks fair enough, Joyce being priced at 3/1 I think is a fair enough reflection that he's a good player but running into probably the best player in the world right now, maybe he should be a tick or two shorter but that's neither here nor there and 3/1 certainly doesn't represent value. Might have a tiny dabble on the exchange if we can get bigger possibly.

Aspinall/Smith - Another one where I was momentarily excited when I saw oddschecker's front page showing 6/5, which when I'm seeing the game the other way around would provide enough of an edge to fire, but going in we're not actually getting better than evens, which I don't think is dreadful or -EV, but it's close enough to correct to ignore as a punt.

Schindler/Dobey - Chris is maybe ever so slightly shorter than he ought to be, this is one of the few matches we're likely to see at this stage where we've got someone who is maybe a little overvalued against someone who is a little undervalued, and a partizan home crowd would certainly help Schindler, but that's Dobey's best price. We can't get better than 11/8 on Martin, which is just break even and we're not interested in betting for the sake of betting without a better edge than "bet Germans in Germany".

van Gerwen/Cullen - Line looks fair enough again. Joe's a touch longer than 2/1, we've got him at a touch less than a 30% chance, but there's enough data points to show that Joe might be a tad better than the projections say. Certainly not enough to make us even remotely think that 11/5 is a good bet though.

Chisnall/Wattimena - We finish with another no bet. The angle we'd be looking at is on Dave, 4/9 is maybe a little bit undervaluing just how good he has been playing for the last year or so, and he is the most recent Pro Tour winner, so if you want to go for it, there's tiny value there. I won't recommend it as an actual play as Jermaine's shown enough over the first couple of Euro Tours to indicate he may be playing a bit better than the numbers suggest, but I can't think that price is in anyway bad if you want to bet on Chisnall.

So just the one play, and we're back to Josh Rock. Is it 2022 again?

Sunday 31 March 2024

Day 3 thoughts

Small profit today, basically cancels out the day one losses. Joyce and Schindler played great, Menzies also played fantastic but just ran into probably a top 10% sort of level performance from Smith which you can't really do a great deal about. Still feel convinced Cameron is going to maintain solid betting value for the foreseeable future, at least until he binks something which is surely going to be sooner rather than later if he just maintains his level of play.

Not got lines out for most games yet, certainly oddschecker isn't up, so will just run through the thoughts quickly with a raw projection for each:

Rock/Smith - 53/47, seems realistic, Smith looked great today as mentioned above, Josh was alright but mostly doing enough against Veenstra, don't expect this one to differ too much from evens but we'll see.

Price/Searle - 63/37, game for Gerwyn looked closer than it actually was, scoreline for Ryan was the same but Searle definitely played worse today, thought the projection might put Searle a bit closer but I guess not.

Cross/Noppert - 65/35, Rob still real good, no issues against Gurney, Noppert however looked incredible against van Veen, who also might have put up the best losing performance we've ever seen. Ought to be a cracker.

Humphries/Joyce - 72/28, Luke was also up there with Noppert and Smith in terms of the best performance of the day but that's kind of just expected now, Joyce just hit consistent five visit kills which if continued tomorrow is going to be tricky for Luke to live with.

Aspinall/Smith - 46/54, Nathan didn't do a great deal wrong, but got a few too many legs in more than five visits which a player on top form could punish. Smith isn't necessarily at his peak game based on yesterday, but certainly isn't out of form so this should be tight.

Schindler/Dobey - 44/56, Martin routed Heta while Chris put in a very solid showing against Ratajski, don't think it's unreasonable to say that Dobey is the better player, but it's not by that much.

van Gerwen/Cullen - 71/29, Michael was generally pretty steady in his game with de Zwaan which could have been more lopsided than it actually was, while Cullen only really had the one moderately poor leg in a comfortable win over Clayton. This might play out a tad closer than the projection.

Chisnall/Wattimena - 74/26 - Dave shut down a really poor Dimitri, especially compared to yesterday, seems a miracle with how he played that DvdB managed four legs, while Jermaine continues a great start to the year with a solid win over Bunting, the key thing being nicking the scrappy legs. Another one that might be a tad closer than the projection.

Will fire out any bets in the morning, but don't expect anything for the quarters onwards because football.

Day 2 bets

Let's rattle through these quickly having already done the projections last night:

Smith/Dolan - Seems close enough to a correct line, it's got Ross a little bit shorter than the projection suggests but it did feel at the time like it might be overestimating Brendan a little anyway so I'm fine with a no bet.

Rock/Veenstra - Line appears pretty close to perfect, both are probably a bit underrated in general so that kind of cancels each other out.

Ratajski/Dobey - Almost feels like we're close to a stab on Ratajski. Krzysztof is still playing solid darts. If we had the inverse of Chris's odds, i.e. we could get 2/1, I'd probably take a small stab but we've got a fair bit of vig in the market so nothing doing here. Yet.

Joyce/Pietreczko - Market can't separate the two but we think Ryan is solidly better. A little bit of consistency at play and home field won't help (although it is the afternoon session), but VC are offering a good price which we'll take, 0.25u Joyce evs

Bunting/Wattimena - Projection really, really loves Bunting, and with good reason, but I think in reality it's probably a tad closer than what I've put up, Jermaine did get a 6-0 over a competent opponent yesterday, albeit with a not great performance, line's close enough for me.

Searle/Lennon - Market's throwing this around 70/30, I've got it marginally tighter than that, Steve's undervalued, but it's not enough to bet on Lennon, Searle isn't exactly playing badly in 2024 and Lennon wasn't overly convincing yesterday.

Cross/Gurney - Market has this one round about spot on. Think it's one where both are a tad undervalued, Gurney yesterday was pretty much par for the course.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - I think with Dirk having had a decent Pro Tour run we can stop taking him off the board for injury reasons now, but we're certainly not going to jump in either way when both the projections and the market have Nathan as a small favourite.

Smith/Menzies - Both players are scoring exactly the same in my database since the start of September. Exactly. To two decimal places. Menzies is doing better on winning legs hence why he projects as a favourite, but this one's going to be very close so we take the VC line again, 0.25u Menzies 6/4

Noppert/van Veen - Market can barely separate them, it gives Noppert the tiny edge with van Veen at evens, I think this is very close to a punt but Danny's a touch more consistent and van Veen was merely good, not spectacular yesterday. Wouldn't hate a tenth of a unit at evens but I'll wait and see if we can get 11/10 which would be a go.

Price/Wright - 1/2 on Gerwyn appears really, really close, but Peter has looked good over the last week or so, as such I'm fine with holding fire on this one.

Humphries/Woodhouse - Line's fine, the lesser Luke's good but the world champ is in a really good place right now and being priced at 2/9 is not completely ridiculous.

Heta/Schindler - I'm calling this one as being real close, Heta is scoring more but Martin's scoring better on the winning legs, which is why I projected him as favourite. Coralbrokes are offering a good price which I'll have a small nibble at, 0.1u Schindler 11/8, if Damon does have an edge it is not as big as that line suggests.

van Gerwen/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was both a bit fortunate and unfortunate yesterday, he got away with the game but ran into back to back ton plus checkouts from a great position. Still, nothing to suggest that the market isn't close to perfect.

Chisnall/van den Bergh - Dave as a small favourite seems just about right. Dimitri was excellent yesterday and Chizzy at 10/11 and Dimi the inverse is as close to perfect as I think you'll get.

Clayton/Cullen - Similar thing here, I'm showing Joe as a small favourite, the market is doing the same 11/10 and 10/11 thing, we're not touching it.

So three bets here. Let's go.

Saturday 30 March 2024

Munich day 2 thoughts

To whoever commented on day 1, yeah it does look like I missed Aspinall against Unterbuchner, I guess that scrolling down oddschecker there wasn't a line available anywhere that they'd imported, I don't think anything of value would have been lost. Anyway, today was up and down, it could have been a lot worse if de Zwaan hadn't pulled his game out when it could easily have been lost, but looking at things Soutar didn't show up, Wenig missed doubles and then Gilding didn't show up. Would I have done anything different? Probably not, we trust our reads. Still, let's put up quick reads on what round two will look like, all the qualifiers are gone so we've got a pretty vanilla field with a lot of data, I guess we find little value (tips, if any, will come in the morning) but let's see:

Smith 62/38 Dolan
Rock 64/36 Veenstra
Dobey 61/39 Ratajski
Joyce 63/37 Pietreczko
Bunting 77/23 Wattimena
Searle 67/33 Lennon
Cross 65/35 Gurney
Aspinall 54/46 van Duijvenbode
Menzies 56/44 Smith
van Veen 56/44 Noppert
Price 72/28 Wright
Humphries 76/24 Woodhouse
Schindler 55/45 Heta
van Gerwen 79/21 de Zwaan
Chisnall 54/46 van den Bergh
Cullen 51/49 Clayton

A couple of interesting ones, but when I check on the markets in the morning I don't see myself betting on much. But we'll see.

Munich day 1

Was meaning to get this up yesterday, but was just too tired, then kind of half forgot this was on with the scheduling being a little bit funky compared to other Euro Tour events and the calendar/days off work also throwing me. God knows what the clock change tonight will do, but let's get into it:

Joyce/Doets - Feels like this is an important one for Doets, currently being on the right side of the Matchplay spots, but not by much, getting a decent wedge to try to bridge the gap up to Rydz (there's about 5k difference between between 13th and 14th right now) would be very beneficial. Joyce is looking safer on that front, and it feels like he's playing slightly the better darts, and the numbers agree with him projecting just over 60%. 8/11 looks like a small undervaluing of Ryan, not enough to punt though.

Dolan/Soutar - Brendan however is on the other side of the Matchplay cutoff, albeit not by much at all, so getting a win over Soutar, who kind of needs a big year himself after a down 2023, would be crucial so it's an important game for both. It feels like Alan's been playing better of late, and I don't have this more than just a weighted coinflip in Brendan's favour, so I feel with a bit of momentum in Soutar's favour, we can have a small stab, 0.1u Soutar 11/8 on 365.

Roetzsch/Wattimena - Franz is a player we've been aware of for some time and he's had an alright start on the Challenge Tour this season, does feel like it's surely just a matter of time before he comes good in something and gets his card. Jermaine's been a bit resurgent of late and should be favoured, hard to tell with general lack of data on Roetzsch, maybe 4/11 is a bit harsh, but 5/2 I don't think offers sufficient value to take a flier on the German qualifier.

Menzies/de Decker - This one looks good on paper and is another one which might have Matchplay consequences with the two players currently 18th and 19th on the Pro Tour list. Seems like both are playing well, but I'm getting Cameron as approaching a 60% favourite, he is still somewhat undervalued and I think there is a sliver of value here, 0.1u Menzies 10/11 is generally available.

Dobey/Tingstrom - Viktor won the Nordic qualifier, and looked pretty decent in a couple of matches against the highly rated Harrysson and Lukasiak, and not exactly awful in his other games either. It's an enormous step up against someone like Chris, I'm not sure that 15/2 is really being fair on the Swede, but it'd be reasonable to think he might be a bit nervy in this one. Or maybe it's a free hit? Who knows.

de Zwaan/Ehlers - Jeffrey looks like he's continuing to get a little bit better, but is still someway off his best, and he's got an alright draw against a domestic qualifier who I've not heard of before, so I guess it's a debut, the quali was alright, mostly low to mid 80s with one flash up into the 90s in the semi final, I don't think it's enough to really threaten de Zwaan, his Q-School numbers look a bit better than his quali numbers, but this looks like a take on the known quantity at the price, 0.25u de Zwaan 2/5 on Hills

Mueller/Veenstra - Oliver's another one to have come through the quali, and if anything the numbers look less convincing than Matthias's do, and Veenstra feels like a tougher draw than de Zwaan is. The market's giving Richard a bit of a better chance accordingly, so I'm looking at the same sort of thing again, 0.25u Veenstra 3/10 on 365 looks good.

Zonneveld/Woodhouse - This ought to be competitive but with Luke being a late call up for Gary Anderson, maybe he's not quite 100% in terms of preparation, he's perhaps a little better than the odds suggest (is 10/11, I've got it better but closer to 55% than 60%), so I'm not going to take the shot as I did in a similar situation with Menzies just because even a fraction of underperformance due to potential less than ideal preparation is enough not to punt.

Wenig/Lennon - This ought to be fun to start with a home country card holder against a known good player, I've actually got these two running pretty close and Lukas has had some steady results. I'm reluctant to bet against Steve, but it is home field advantage, I'll go with 0.1u Wenig 6/4 on 365, with it being in Germany and the numbers being just about at close as they are, I can push out to recommend a small play.

Wade/Gurney - Not a bad second game either, both been around for more than a decade now, Gurney is actually projecting as a favourite which did surprise me, and you can't actually get better than 4/5, which also surprised me. While Daryl does project as better in my numbers, it's not enough to be worth a play, he's perhaps 2-3% stronger than the line suggests which really isn't enough given it's not unreasonable to think projections will underestimate Wade.

Gilding/Cullen - This is already shaping up to be a great session, both have just been quietly getting their job done, and Joe did us with a couple of real good performances in ET1. Gilding is projecting better - it's a little bit down to consistency, but there's not a great disparity, and he is not a favourite in the market. 0.25u Gilding 11/8 on VC, anything down to about 6/5 is probably worth the play, below that I'd go down to evens on a tenth of a unit.

Schindler/Sedlak - Martin's got one of the qualifiers here, it's a name we've seen before, but not a huge amount recently, he's got some game so I'm not going to say take Schindler 2/7 and print money, but Martin looks clearly better and should be comfortable enough to get the win.

van Barneveld/van Veen - Clash of eras here in a local derby, and the line looks pretty much close to correct - Gian projects a little bit better than the 4/5 line suggests, but we can clearly temper that with the knowledge that Barney is playing really well in the relative short term. Easy enough one to just avoid for betting and enjoy.

Wright/de Sousa - Session isn't exactly getting worse, is it? Peter's showing a little bit more of late, while Jose is still fairly anonymous, not really doing anything to make us think he'll get into the tough majors this year or arrest a slide that looks like well out of the top 32 this time next year. That said, the projections make this a tough one to call, so while my first instinct would be continue to lay Wright until proven bad, Jose is actually only 6/5 and that is a hard pass at the price.

van den Bergh/Clemens - And we finish with another banger, Dimitri's got the big win recently, while Gabriel is remarkably still looking for a first title. Seems legitimately too close to call, the market has neither odds against and is just shading Dimi as the favourite, I'd probably have it the other way but it is neither here nor there and we're not interested in either until we start getting up towards 11/8, which we're not going to see.

Round 2 may also be fairly late.

Sunday 10 March 2024

Wieze done

Was only going to be a matter of time before Littler won one of these. Winning the first one was maybe a little bit ahead of the timescale that some people thought, but meh, he's good and nobody denies that.
New FRH rankings are as follows:

1 Luke Humphries
2 Michael Smith
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Rob Cross
5 Nathan Aspinall
6 Gerwyn Price
7 Peter Wright
8 Damon Heta
9 Jonny Clayton
10 Dave Chisnall
11 Dimitri van den Bergh
12 Joe Cullen
13 Stephen Bunting
14 Luke Littler (+4)
15 Chris Dobey (-1)
16 James Wade (-1)
17 Danny Noppert (-1)
18 Ryan Searle (-1)
19 Dirk van Duijvenbode
20 Gary Anderson (NEW)

Nothing substantial changing, Ando pushing into the top 20 over Gilding was probably only a matter of time, Littler winning obviously pushes him up in the rankings, by the time we make a significant discussion again he is probably already up to twelve on account of when he's won his money. Lower down, Pietreczko seemingly didn't move but just pushed a bit closer to those above him, Wattimena is now #43, and that's pretty much it in terms of things of note.

Upcoming, we've got a Challenge Tour weekend in Germany which should be interesting, leading straight into Pro Tour events, but the next big thing will be the usual Munich/Easter Euro Tour event. This weekend's Isle of Man events have zero coverage because reasons, there is one silver ranked WDF event later in the month in the States which it looks like we should find on Dart Connect, but I am guessing this next month should be probably quiet in terms of updates. We'll see, maybe someone does something stupid and we can talk about things. Who knows.

Wieze QF bets

Pietreczko/Clayton - Appears extremely tight. Have it closer than 51/49, Clayton being favoured but only by a fraction. As such, the line being slanted with Ricardo at 13/10 offers a sliver of value, but with Clayton looking so good in the last sixteen, one leg excepted, it's hard to think we have the edge right now, not that Ricardo played badly in knocking out Joyce at all.

Littler/Wattimena - This is looking like a great chance for Littler to make a breakthrough at this level, he was fantastic against Heta, apart from in the legs where he lost where the scoring was a bit weak, while Wattimena was fine against Cullen, took advantage of a couple of weak scoring legs from Joe, whose purple patch in the last two rounds ended rapidly. Projecting Luke up near 85%, 2/11 doesn't seem unfair, Jermaine's had a good run which'll be something to build on, but it surely ends here.

Searle/Cross - Ryan didn't put a foot wrong, just a couple of slightly slow legs where Luke was not able to finish, while Cross had probably the easiest run of anyone, dropping just the one leg with Noppert only in a position to be waiting on a double in another two. I've got Cross as a small favourite, split the difference between 55% and 45%, and the market is shading him about the same at 4/5, so I don't see any value in this one.

Price/Bunting - Gerwyn looked fantastic against Ando, who was playing exceptionally well himself, with just the one leg between them going beyond fifteen darts and the two combining to over a ton in the legs they lost. Great stuff. Bunting had three extremely strong legs, but otherwise just did his job and will need to be a bit more consistent in this one. The market can barely separate them, if you've got money on VC then take the Price line there and arb elsewhere, but I'll just take the price full stop, 0.25u Price evs, I've got him closer to 60% than 55% so that's enough edge for me to fire on the back of a fantastic last sixteen display.

Wieze R3 bets

One out of three yesterday - given they were all around 2/1, that's going to result in close to break even regardless of which one actually one, unfortunately it was de Decker that won who was fractionally the shortest price, but we move on to the last sixteen:

Joyce/Pietreczko - Both players came through 6-5 deciders, Ricardo right at the start in an evenly matched game with Luke Woodhouse, whereas Joyce had much the better timing to nick one against Chizzy. This one seems fairly close, but Joyce has a bit of an edge for me, about the best we can get is 5/6 on Boyles, which is close to a play, but I would probably need 10/11 before I started really thinking about it given the level of play from both yesterday. Possibly evens.

Wright/Clayton - Jonny did for one of our bets yesterday, coming from a 2-0 hole to beat van Peer 6-4 with what was a good display, while Peter also won 6-4 against a somewhat underperforming van Gerwen for what has to be considered a bit of an upset at this stage. Wright surprisingly projects as a 60/40 favourite for this one, it's the same sort of scenario as the one above, we're only getting 5/6 and I'd probably want evens given how both have played yesterday (and Friday as well, in the case of Wright), and how it feels like a false prediction with the general mediocre form of Wright.

Heta/Littler - Damon had zero problems with a bit of an off Dolan, although if Brendan had have hit any double in the comedy second leg, maybe he gets it to 3-2 on throw and it might be a different story. Littler had little (lol) trouble with Ratajski, a little bit of a slow start but came through comfortably in the end. Luke looks about 70/30 here, he's 1/2 so for maybe the first time since the worlds, he's actually being underrated? It's not enough edge to bet obviously, but an interesting development.

Cullen/Wattimena - Joe came with another really good game to take Dirk out, while Jermaine continues a good run with a solid showing against Ross Smith, who clearly wasn't at his best but Jermaine didn't give him too much of a chance. This feels like a hard one to call, the projections are only giving Cullen just shy of 60%, and as the projections have typically maybe underestimated Jermaine as well, it might be right, but Joe looks to be playing a lot better than the sample this weekend, so 9/5 on Wattimena probably goes from being tiny value to being, if not -EV, certainly not safe enough to bet.

Humphries/Searle - Luke cruised past Wade with really no issues at all, just a shame he couldn't make it a 6-0, while Ryan was made to work by an opportunistic Richard Veenstra, who nicked what he could despite Searle's game being just fine. Two in form players, the projection is giving Searle ever so slightly more than a one in three shot - 12/5 is not really enough to give confidence to bet, maybe if some money comes in on Humphries, I'll go with a small play.

Cross/Noppert - Rob could easily have been 4-0 down to Lukas Wenig, but managed to escape to 3-3 and win a decider, Danny also won a decider against Dobey from 5-3 down, dodging some bullets in the tenth leg especially. Cross looks to be a solid enough favourite in this one, I'd have said about 4/7 would be a fair line, we can actually get 4/6 which is overrating Danny ever so slightly. 8/11 I'd probably say screw it and fire small.

Price/Anderson - Gerwyn was a bit up and down against Clemens but never really looked in trouble to lose the match, while Gary definitely was having some issues against an inspired Andreas Harrysson who continued his level of play from Friday and was unlucky to completely run out of steam in the decider where he had the darts. Ando is clearly the better player at this point in time and projects just shy of 60/40, the market basically has neither player odds against, with Price being the one who's hitting evens. If that was Gary I'd go with it, instead it's another one that's really close to a play but I don't quite have enough to pull the trigger.

Bunting/de Decker - Final game sees Bunting, who looked pretty decent but needed every leg to dispose of Josh Rock (kid is still playing fine, just not getting results), while Mike had a very good 6-2 win over Michael Smith, maybe the most noteworthy of his career even though the numbers were merely good if not spectacular. Bunting is about the same sort of level favourite as Gary is, but he's priced at 1/2 and not just shorter than evens. So I think it's another one where we're very close to going with Mike - 7/4 is just not quite enough, even factoring in the home field advantage, I'd want another tick or probably 2/1 flat out before I'd actually fire against Stephen on this one.

So no bets, but if you're more bullish on some players that I think are close, maybe there's some value for you.

Saturday 9 March 2024

Wieze round 2 bets

0.1u van Peer 15/8, as stated below he actually projects as favourite. Even if we say it's all consistency and flip him from a 55/45 favourite to a 55/45 dog as a result, that still gives us a pretty big edge and we take those, I only don't go a quarter unit as I fear I may be missing something fundamental here. Maybe Jonny having a quieter schedule makes him unexpectedly fresh or something.

0.1u Dolan 9/4, don't love this anywhere near as much as the above one, but we're still getting better than 2/1 on someone we're thinking at worst has a 40% chance. Even if that's 5% too much, it's still a +EV play.

0.1u de Decker 7/4, someone we're saying is close to a flip on home soil at approaching 2/1 odds? Sign me up.

That's the lot, the only other real consideration was Dirk, a play I don't hate, but there's enough uncertainty as to the state of his game that I'm happy enough to effectively put him off the board as of right now.

Friday 8 March 2024

Wieze R2 thoughts

Not going to lie for one minute, that was not a good day in terms of results. Think the process was fine - when you get an unrelated account agree with your main play, it does give a bit of confidence that you're coming to the right conclusions, but it's not always going to work. Schindler wasn't at his best, but Cullen played really well and we've got to give credit where it's due to Joe, it's probably at least a one and a half sigma negative in terms of outcomes, but these things happen. Wright played pretty ordinary as we thought, de Vos just didn't have it either, while Barney was in the position to win, and just fucked it up. These things happen. We just keep putting the volume of bets in where we think we're right, and in the long run we'll be fine.

So, onto round two - first round's only just recently done, so while some lines will be out, I'm going to blast out a quick bets post in the morning (and I mean quick, just pointing out plays and that's it, I've got a moderately long trip to a game tomorrow, so if I just mention a game you can assume that I'm thinking line is close enough to thoughts) and then be done with it, and then catch up on everything on Sunday morning.

Pietreczko/Woodhouse - Competitive enough one to start. Luke was alright in round one, nothing spectacular one way or another, and is actually projecting about 55/45 ahead, so could be a chance of a seed going out here.

Smith/Wattimena - Didn't have Jermaine whitewashing anyone at this level in the thoughts, but he did, but this is a bit of a step up and Ross is projecting more than 75/25. There is no consistency thing here, that's just how good he's playing.

Clayton/van Peer - Was able to get a little bit of respite on van Peer getting through Klose with a personal side play, but I don't think he did too much notable, just got the job done, but here's the bonkers thing - van Peer is projecting as a favourite. Not by a lot, 55/45 at most, and if you take into account Berry's wild inconsistency, he might not be a favourite at all, but if he's a dog, it's not by much, so this could be a favourable play on van Peer here.

Heta/Dolan - The guy Brendan played actually did a bit more than we thought, but Dolan still came through, and it's another one that looks weirdly close in the projections, again around a 55/45 clip. Heta does have a consistency edge, but it's not by much, and we may be looking at the history maker for an underdog flier potentially.

Searle/Veenstra - Richard did well to pull away after holding on by nicking the scrappy legs in the early stages, and gets another tough opponent in Searle here, this is again showing up as a 2-1 sort of game which seems fair enough, especially given Ryan's current good form.

Noppert/Dobey - Chris came through as expected, the other guy did kind of what we thought and it'll be good to see him a bit more going forward (maybe in the World Cup?), but for now this should be a competitve game but one where Dobey is coming in as the better player, dropping right in the middle of the 60%-65% range and it looks one where Danny's solidity can't handle what looks to be a clearly superior player on paper.

Anderson/Harrysson - Andreas probably had the game of his life to storm past van Veen, and I'm thinking this is one where we get a bit of a hangover and where the (unfiltered on the sample size I'm using) second best player in the world just turns over the best player in the world and moves on.

van Duijvenbode/Cullen - As mentioned above, Joe looked extremely good in his first game, Dirk I think is still a bit of a mystery but is projecting nicely into the low 60% range. Huge questions with consistency and with injury, he looks to be getting back to where he was, but this one is going to be look at the line and go with feel as opposed to data given there are a lot of intangibles saying go with Cullen.

Chisnall/Joyce - Ryan just got the job done, nothing special there, but has been doing enough in recent months where Dave is nowhere near 60%, he's actually closer to 55% than that. He had a great 2023 but maybe much of it was in the early stages and tides are changing?

Smith/de Decker - Mike was made to work earlier, but seemingly had a big home crowd with him which you have to expect will continue here, and on the relevant numbers I'm not finding a lot to split the two. Smith is better but it's very marginal, so look for a bet on the home favourite here.

Price/Clemens - Gabriel moved through with little problems, now we get one of the biggest upshifts in terms of quality of opponent you will see on this circuit, but Clemens is certainly not without chances. Price has lost to a comparable German player over a longer format pretty recently, and Clemens has a touch more than a one in three shot - the Iceman should come through, but this is not a formality.

van Gerwen/Wright - One that looks better on paper than it probably will be in real life. Wright's actually projecting at a moderately reasonable number a touch over 35%, but there's big inconsistency numbers in play here that we really need to consider in this one.

Ratajski/Littler - Can't think I'll be the only one that was surprised that de Sousa forced Littler to a deciding leg. Krzysztof is not going to care about the hype and will just step up and do his thing, which on the numbers should get there a tad less than one in three but a tad more than 30% of the time. Will watch the bookies, but this might be a play, although little was offered in the JdS game.

Humphries/Wade - Probably one of the bigger projections we've seen in that it's showing near to 80/20 in favour of the world champion. Is that unfair on someone of Wade's calibre? Frankly no, it's not.

Rock/Bunting - Stephen was getting quite a lot of steam in the markets, to the point where the flier price I wanted on Dimi on the exchanges was actually met. Still, he came through, just about, and is showing enough where he's the tiniest favourite over Josh in this one. Rock almost feels a bit like a forgotten man, but he is more than keeping pace with one of the more hyped up names of the present.

Cross/Wenig - One of the less interesting games, Lukas got through a qualifier but was a touch sluggish, he is projecting at about a one in five chance but context of form makes me think we're not going to hit near that likelihood and we won't have a chance for a flier play on Wenig.

Check in tomorrow for any bets, if they're not up by quarter to ten or so, then assume nothing of value is there.

Wieze R1 bets

van Peer/Klose - Looks close enough to right. May be undervaluing Berry extremely fractionally, like maybe 1% or 2%, which isn't enough to bet.

Joyce/Gilding - Again, looks pretty close to correct, Gilding's 6/5 and we were saying he had a 45% chance.

Wenig/van Put - We're clearly not going to touch Lukas at shorter than 1/8, question is whether we have enough confidence in what Born can do to fire, and I think that's a categorical no.

Gurney/Wattimena - First one we can really think about firing on, with Daryl at 4/7 which is implying just under a 65% chance, when we're thinking it's probably around 70%. That said, we did think that was a bit of a possible false projection, and on further inspection Jermaine's a couple of points better on consistency so I'm happy enough to reign in Gurney's chances enough to make it a no bet.

Woodhouse/Hurrell - Luke's coming in at just shorter than 1/2, which is pretty much exactly where I thought it would be.

Dolan/Strobbe - Would need a lot, lot longer than 9/1 to consider Strobbe here. Dolan at 1/14 probably isn't terrible to be honest.

Dobey/Grbavac - I'm kind of half tempted to consider Romeo to be honest here, given he's actually longer in places than Strobbe is, which seems a bit silly to be honest. It is a bit step up in class against a very good opponent though, so I won't actually bet it.

Harrysson/van Veen - Lacking real data on Andreas here, but Gian at 1/5 seems like the right sort of ballpark figure.

de Decker/Landman - Thought Chris might be a bit shorter, but you can actually get 3/1 on 888 which does offer a small arb. I'd actually need longer to bet him though, so we're clearly not going to play him, or Mike, whose best odds look just about right and whose worst odds are clearly unplayable.

Schindler/Cullen - Market can't split the two, which seems bonkers. Unlike the Gurney game, we are going to play though, 0.25u Schindler 10/11, for two reasons - Martin's coming off a huge win, and we're getting a massively better price. Cullen is a lot more consistent but that consistency isn't going to make near evens not the correct play, since the summer Martin's two points a turn better which is a lot.

Caron/Clemens - Jeroen's a lot closer than the other two qualifiers we've looked at so far, which I think is probably just about fair enough given what little amount we know of him. As such I'm happy not to play it, he's got a puncher's chance but that's about it and Gabriel should be, and is, a strong favourite.

Littler/de Sousa - Might be tiny value in Jose at 4/1, which would fit in with current lay Littler early and often theory, the concern is he's coming off of what ought to be a really confidence damaging loss. As such, I'm not going to play the lay Littler card on this one.

Wright/de Vos - 0.1u 11/2 de Vos, we don't have recent data on Geert outside of the quali, but this is just a general principle "nobody competent should be longer than 5/1 against Wright in a first to six" bet right now, and de Vos at least qualifies as competent. For comparison, Jurjen van der Velde shows at over a 20% chance.

Wade/van Barneveld - Wade's actually the market favourite here, albeit only just. There is, as you might expect, a consistency issue with the numbers, Wade is as you might expect a fair bit more consistent, but if we reign Barney's advantage on the winning legs all the way in from just below 60% to just above 50%, there is still enough of an edge for a small stab. 0.1u van Barneveld 6/5

van den Bergh/Bunting - Stephen is, quite correctly, projecting as favourite, but while I'd have it at 4/6, it's actually 8/13. So that's underrating Dimitri a tiny amount already looking at the raw numbers, without factoring in intangibles such as "just won a major title this week" and "playing on home soil penultimate game of the evening session". Depends on how much you think that bumps Dimi's numbers - if you think it'll give him an additional 2-3%, then go with the shot.

Aspinall/Veenstra - Looks about right to me. Wouldn't be touching Nathan, maybe Veenstra is no worse than a neutral EV play, 2/1 looks a perfect line so if you factor in the travel then perhaps you can justify it clearly not being a losing play.

Thursday 7 March 2024

Belgian bonanza

OK, quick post covering two things. First up, Dimitri binking the UK Open was a fairly big surprise. Looking through the numbers he was playing solidly but not spectacularly, i.e. a good enough level to go deep, but actually winning it needed something a bit more in the final, and one way or another he got it done, which has done this to the FRH rankings:

1 Luke Humphries
2 Michael Smith
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Rob Cross (+1)
5 Nathan Aspinall (-1)
6 Gerwyn Price
7 Peter Wright
8 Damon Heta (+2)
9 Jonny Clayton (-1)
10 Dave Chisnall (-1)
11 Dimitri van den Bergh (+8)
12 Joe Cullen (-1)
13 Stephen Bunting
14 Chris Dobey
15 James Wade (+1)
16 Danny Noppert (-4)
17 Ryan Searle (NEW)
18 Luke Littler (NEW)
19 Dirk van Duijvenbode (-4)
20 Andrew Gilding (-3)

Ross Smith and Josh Rock drop out since the last update (which hasn't been since the worlds), but both, along with Gary Anderson, are primed to jump back in if they have a moderately decent run this weekend. The two Michaels are separated by less than 10k, Heta trails Wright by less than 5k, Chizzy meanwhile is less than 500 points behind Clayton. Dimitri gets himself into a little bit of an island, with 12th down to 23rd being one fairly close pack with the only real sizable gap being from Dobey down to Wade.

We now get to the first of the new Euro Tour events. The domestic quali is done (de Vos getting Raman in the last 64 was lol), so let's power through the first round in the draw order:

Joyce/Gilding - Not a huge amount to separate the two. Ryan seems to be in more of the ascendency with Gilding's best form dating back to twelve months ago and not really managing a massive amount more than just ticking over since then, leaving Joyce about a 55/45 favourite.

Woodhouse/Hurrell - Woody had a good weekend, and while Hurrell's a known player, he's not really overly close to Luke's level and probably only nicks this one in three.

Wright/de Vos - Wright's form has been well documented, so while getting a domestic qualifier is not a terrible result, getting the pick of them in de Vos is not ideal. Has been a little bit since we've seen him but a performance like he put in in the last round of the quali would be enough to put Peter under some pressure.

van Peer/Klose - Feels like we've seen this one fairly recently? Not sure where, Klose played more than one Dutch player in the UK Open but it wasn't Berry. van Peer's better but it's only between the 55% and 60% bracket and one that can go either way fairly easily.

Dolan/Strobbe - Brendan's in a bit of an awkward season where he could do with stepping up a little, but this is a good start. Strobbe couldn't break more than the low 80 averages in the quali and the final round was particularly poor, dropping below 70 (albeit with multiple legs where both were dicking around on doubles) so it's hard to see Dolan having problems here. Strobbe played a bunch of Challenge Tour last year and only got one mincash so can't see him being a threat.

Littler/de Sousa - Jose's coming off a real bad UK Open loss (although that may be magnified in my eyes given it cost me more than a few quid), and comes in as a natural dog against the hottest name in the sport. Luke's weirdly only just below 75% to take this but it feels like it should be more and I guess it will be priced accordingly.

Schindler/Cullen - Martin got one big win last weekend, while Cullen continues to be ranked alright despite seeming to not be doing a massive amount. Schindler's actually projecting as a huge 70/30 favourite for some reason, there is a solid difference in numbers right now so while that feels big, it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous on inspection of the data.

Gurney/Wattimena - Sort of game that Jermaine, and anyone coming through the tour card quali, really has to exploit. Gurney's solid, but this is an avoidal of many of the bigger guns, although it's another game where there's a 70/30 line, which I thought again might be tighter.

Wade/van Barneveld - We're going to see a lot of these lol sort of first round matches given the new format going forward. Thought this might be on a knife edge but Barney oddly gets closer to 60% than 55%, which is a surprise given RvB has, like Cullen, been somewhat under the radar.

Aspinall/Veenstra - Bit of a tough tie for Nathan this, particularly given a fairly quick travel turn around that won't help him or anyone else who is in Brighton tonight. Looks like an exact two in three game for the Asp, but Richard's solid and maybe this ends up being a touch closer than that projection suggests.

Wenig/van Put - Born's a relatively new name, and seemingly quite young based on playing weekend one of the Development Tour, reaching a last sixteen once and doing enough to get to stage two of Q-School. Looking at the numbers in the quali though, he only broke 80 once so it's pretty hard to see how Wenig doesn't come through this one at a canter.

Dobey/Grbavac - Romeo is I believe a new name to the European Tour, but did give a bit of an announcement with a solid Challenge Tour weekend that has placed him in the top 10 after the first weekend. That's good to see, but someone as good as Dobey is should have a second round place booked pretty quickly.

Caron/Clemens - Final domestic qualifier is a new name to me, he did get through stage 1 of Q-School but did little in stage two and had a 0/5 slate of cashing in the first Challenge Tour weekend. The quali numbers show some encouragement, he was above 80 every time and hitting the higher points of that range more than once, so he's got something about him but Clemens is going to be a real tough ask.

Harrysson/van Veen - Andreas is someone we've seen before, but not for a while, and the first Challenge Tour weekend was somewhat underwhelming. With van Veen showing somewhat of a return to form at Minehead it's hard to look past Gian in this one.

van den Bergh/Bunting - Another one of the pretty big draws that we can get, which is spicier than it might otherwise be for obvious reasons. Bunting's basically projecting at 60/40 but there's clear reasons why we might think that this game plays out closer than that in real life.

de Decker/Landman - Final game seems like a fairly obvious call to make, Mike's shown a continually improving game to the point where he's getting in majors, and is projecting a tad over 70% against Landman, who's had some alright results over the past twelve months without really putting up enormous numbers, so it's hard to see how Chris can overturn the odds in this one.

Will post up something in the morning in terms of bets once lines are established.

Sunday 3 March 2024

UK Open roundup

I know there's still the semi finals to go, but I looked this morning and the only thing that looked like it might have been small value was laying Littler - obviously that would have worked, and we can't do that more than once in the tournament. Great runs for Ricky Evans and Martin Lukeman, who both now crash the top 40 in the FRH rankings. I'll get back with full new FRH rankings when we have the tournament done, but for now, Humphries is clearly staying number one, Heta is now in the top 8 and will get past Peter Wright if he wins his semi, and go all the way to fourth if he binks, Dimitri's back in the top twenty, just one place above Littler in 17th, and can gain three places if he nicks the game with Heta. He can't get into the top ten if he binks, he'd still be more than 10k behind Chisnall, but he'll probably be very close in a couple of months regardless of what happens with how FRH ranking degradation happens. Of those lower down who got good money, Keane Barry's back up into the top 50, Mervyn King's close to the top 64, and Benjamin Reus is now up into the top 200 and rising.

In terms of betting, it was generally OK - up just shy of a unit, eliminating the majority of what we lost at the worlds and giving us a bit of a better platform as we come up to the first European Tour next weekend - although as we've previously talked about, the profitability of the European Tour from a betting perspective is going to be way, way down on what it was last season. We do have a few interesting names in there though, so let's hope they're distributed nicely and we'll see how it goes.

Saturday 2 March 2024

Round 5 bets

Going to have to be really quick here, but good job on the DC team on stitching together the Gates/Lukeman data.

Bets are:

0.25u Anderson 8/13, that implies only just over 60% whereas I have him at around two in three, this ordinarily wouldn't be enough but his form is so red hot I can push it up enough to bet
0.1u Woodhouse 5/2, came through a good game yesterday, Smith has some questions about him, Luke's good enough to win this more than 35% of the time so I'll happily go for a flier at 5/2
0.1u Schindler 16/5, probably going to be the case where we autolay Littler for a while, Schindler's projecting well into the high 30% range and has already beaten one very good player this weekend

Not touching:

Usher/van Veen - Usher probably still a bit underrated but back to back upsets seem unlikely and it's only a small edge anyway
Clayton/Smith - Clayton probably tiny value but not enough edge to feel comfortable
Evans/de Decker - Correctly the market has this close with the Belgian being the tiny favourite
Noppert/Lukeman - Feels like close on Noppert, he's not quite 65% but he's a lot nearer there than the 60% 4/6 implies
Cross/Rock - Seems rare that we see a match where we don't pick Rock these days. He's still the value but Cross is in a decent enough vein of form to nullify much of the betting edge on seasonal data
Chisnall/Suljovic - Was really cool to see Mensur get maybe one last huge TV win, but the line seems right and Dave should be good solidly over 70% of the time
Barry/Meikle - This ought to be interesting but I think the assessment that Keane has a moderate edge is correct
Bunting/Doets - Think it's more one in four rather than one in five that Kevin's got here, but we can't touch his price
Heta/Aspinall - Was surprised to see Nathan favoured in the data model, and by more than the market thinks. Not enough more to bet though, should only be 4/6 not 4/5 that sort of thing
Ratajski/King - If anything Krzysztof should be a bit more favoured than the solid favourite he is, but King looked good yesterday so we'll give him credit for that
Wright/Gilding - Really want to take Andrew here. He has course and distance, Wright is slumping, and the price is extremely close. If it drifts any more than 13/8 I think it's a play
van der Voort/van den Bergh - Really don't want to be touching either. If someone's slightly underrated it's probably actually Dimitri, which we've not said in months, that's just how mediocre Vincent is
Reus/Humphries - I mean we should really be putting a unit on Humphries and taking the 10%, but Reus has fucked us over once already this tournament so I'll just say no

Friday 1 March 2024

Round 4 thoughts

Is going to be a brief one as I'm short of time - this evening pretty much sucked, for one main reason - Jose de Sousa blowing a solid lead and completely ruining our book. Apart from that it wasn't too bad, other than Dart Connect shitting the bed and ruining the Gates/Lukeman game. If PDC TV had an on demand feature I'd watch the game manually myself as it should have been streamed, but PDC TV is still complete garbage, so I guess not. I'll get into things in the morning for round five.

Round 4 bets

Bookies are being unbelievably slow to post lines, so I'm just going to blast through as quickly as I can and may well miss some best prices:

Searle/Usher - Flier on Usher is certainly tempting, but Searle's in such good form that I think the projection in the previous post is very misleading
Payne/Gilding - Looks generally right with Andrew being priced a bit shorter than 1/2. Great to see this on the main stage
Doets/Klose - 0.1u Klose 19/10 Ladbrokes, we like Kevin's game but Daniel we don't think is a significant dog, near 2/1 is a huge price
van Gerwen/Suljovic - MvG being huge odds on is fine, not fancying Suljovic to be able to sustain a challenge
R Smith/Gurney - Line appears just about perfect
Mitchell/Aspinall - Nathan appears acca safe, but there's not the edge to go with a single bet
Meikle/Claydon - Meikle may be too long, but we're only talking a couple of percent and his form has not been great
Reus/de Sousa - 0.5u de Sousa 1/3 365, Reus just isn't in the same league and while the projection may be a bit optimistic, it's very hard to see the Dane getting even one in five or six, let alone more than one in four
Dobey/Mansell - Mickey may be undervalued, but again this is incredibly fractional and not worth chasing
Noppert/Clemens - Noppert is only marginally better and the market correctly identifies this
Lauby/Bunting - The Bunting hype is real and his quality is sadly known now, the prices of 1/6 or there abouts have correctly caught up to his skill level
Williams/Evans - Thought Ricky might have been odds against in this one with Scott's worlds run, he is, but it's only 21/20 as opposed to a bit more where we'd have played with it
Huybrechts/Barry - Tight on paper, tight in the market. Wouldn't have put Keane as the tiny favourite but both are so close to 50/50 there's no edge
M Smith/Cullen - Smith's pedestrian 2023 seems to have caught up in the market. Joe being available at 7/4 isn't bad but the edge is too small to be confident with
Rodriguez/Cross - 0.25u Cross 1/5 Betfair, Rob looked really good yesterday, Rowby definitely doesn't look back yet, we don't have a great edge so only a quarter unit
Whitlock/Heta - Lol these two drawing each other, Heta should perhaps be a little shorter but not by much
Menzies/Anderson - Line seems OK. They've not gone mad with Ando's form, and are recognising Menzies is competent, 2/7 or there abouts seems reasonable
van Barneveld/Woodhouse - Thought Woodhouse might be a bit more undervalued based on just name recognition, but he isn't, 13/10 isn't a losing play but the value is really limited
Price/Schindler - Price being priced (urgh) to win three times out of form looks just about spot on
Clayton/Wolters - Tim's not played badly today, thought this might be priced a bit more in favour of the Ferret, 9/2 isn't really what I was looking for
Wade/Littler - Littler hype is real, if money piles in perhaps look for a small flier on Wade, who IIRC has beaten Littler already this year albeit in a shorter format, 3/1 isn't really getting me excited but if it goes beyond 7/2 then I wouldn't hate a dabble
Gates/Lukeman - 0.25u Lukeman 4/5 365, Lendog looked alright today but Martin's looked much better of late and projects a lot more than a 55% chance
Dolan/van den Bergh - Dimi is a touch overvalued, but Dolan's relative form isn't much better, Brendan would be the play but I'd have been wanting more than 6/4 before we fire
van Veen/Hempel - 4/9 on van Veen is getting close to the spot where we'd take the shot, 1/2 is very close, anything better and we go with it
de Decker/Veenstra - Seems similar to the Dolan game, Richard is not as much of a dog as the market thinks but being valued at 40% when I've got him at 45% is not quite enough
van Duijvenbode/Humphries - Think we can discard the projections given Dirk's injuries, it looks like he's better but I'd want to see something like a narrow loss in a game like this before I can write the issue off as a non-factor
Kenny/Chisnall - Chizzy's much better here. Most books have this priced correctly, Hills appear to have it at a spot where I don't hate a play on Dave
Ratajski/Gawlas - Krzysztof at 1/3 is acca safe, but he's not enough better than 75/25 to consider
Richardson/Wright - Market seems to have caught up with Peter. Thought we'd have an easy play on Joshua, but we don't
Rock/Geeraets - Another "acca safe, but no single" on the short odds player. Patrick looks alright so I wouldn't be wanting to overly push here anyway
King/Pietreczko - Form here? King projects a fair bit better than the odds we can get, I'll go with a small 0.1u King 11/5 on 365, I'm not loving it but the numbers seem to suggest we should go with it  and King's numbers were enough for me today
van der Voort/Krcmar - Would have taken the 8/13 that was showing on 365 for Krcmar, but they've adjusted to closer to what is right just now. Probably still tiny value on Boris

Round 4 instant projections

These are based off of 12 months worth of data, clearly some games (mainly those involving new tour card holders) are going to have sample size issues, but this is raw data and I'll go to bets once lines start coming through.

Searle/Usher 69/31
Payne/Gilding 31/69
Doets/Klose 44/56
van Gerwen/Suljovic 77/23
R Smith/Gurney 60/40
Mitchell/Aspinall 13/87
Meikle/Claydon 59/41
Reus/de Sousa 4/96
Dobey/Mansell 74/26
Noppert/Clemens 54/46
Lauby/Bunting 16/84
Williams/Evans 44/56
Huybrechts/Barry 52/48
M Smith/Cullen 60/40
Rodriguez/Cross 12/88
Whitlock/Heta 24/76
Menzies/Anderson 28/72
van Barneveld/Woodhouse 52/48
Price/Schindler 72/28
Clayton/Wolters 77/23
Wade/Littler 30/70
Gates/Lukeman 26/74
Dolan/van den Bergh 45/55
van Veen/Hempel 75/25
de Decker/Veenstra 55/45
van Duijvenbode/Humphries 37/63
Kenny/Chisnall 17/83
Ratajski/Gawlas 78/22
Richardson/Wright 28/72
Rock/Geeraets 90/10
King/Pietreczko 44/56
van der Voort/Krcmar 27/73

Thursday 29 February 2024

UK Open rounds 1-3 bets and livepost

OK, here we go, first thing we're going to do is go through every already scheduled game and try to call what we think are decent value bets, then when we get to tomorrow morning we'll start updating this live in play with what we see. Let us hope to god that where we're not getting immediate DartConnect stuff (i.e. on the televised boards) that we don't get the same sort of fuckups that we got last year, but I trust sportradar about as much as I trust Sheffield United to go one half without conceding, so let's go:

Dennant/de Graaf - Market is giving Dennant a small edge at 4/5. That's commensurate with what I was thinking in the preview post, so happy enough to move on.

Taylor/Western - Dom is very, very odds on. It might be slightly silly, but his overall numbers look good enough to just about justify it against a random Rileys qualifier, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Brandon was to nick it about as much as the market is suggesting.

Lauby/Rafferty - First one where we've got good data on both, and it seems legitimately too close to call, market has Danny as very (21/20) tiny odds against, so seems a clear ignore for me.

Bates/Boulton - Another that appeared close on paper, looking at things this seems like a clear coinflip, neither player is odds against so nothing doing here.

van Dongen/Tricole - We've got more than enough data on both to draw an inference - Jules is better. Significantly better. An implied 60% win chance doesn't truly reflect things enough, 0.25u van Dongen 4/6

Coleman/Wolters - I'm really not convinced by Wolters, and Coleman seems to be doing enough to make me think he's pretty live in this one, so I'm tempted to get on the bandwagon and go with the small flier, 0.1u Coleman 13/10, it is a flier but he's shown enough and this is probably a better environment for Ashley than it is for Tim.

Roes/Reus - Data is fairly limited on both, but I find it hard to believe from what I have seen out of Bradly that he is in a spot where he's going to be severely outclassed, so this seems like an automatic play at the price, 0.1u Roes 12/5

van der Wal/Haines - Market's finding it very hard to split the two. They've got Jitse as a favourite, but it's really not by much at all. I'd have been extremely tempted by a flier on Johnny if the market was moderately favouring the card holder, but they're not.

Brooks/Crabtree - Cameron comes into this one as a minor favourite in the market, not even 60/40 - but looking at the numbers I have, I've got to say I'm tempted by Bradley in this one - only for a small play, but I can't see that Crabtree makes a case to be the better player, so with a bit of an odds against edge, we'll go with the line, 0.1u Brooks 6/5

Toonders/Landman - Landman comes into this one as a significant favourite, and it's understandable given the figures we're seeing from the German prospect. Can't see Landman slipping up here, if I was going to go for a bet it probably would be on Toonders as 7/2 seems like a fair enough price for most players who'd face Landman in this competition, I just don't know enough about him really.

Rodriguez/Meulenkamp - I've got enough data on these to think it's too close to call. Neither player is odds against. Ron looks to be shading it and I think if there is an edge, it's minor in his favour, but 10/11 is not in the slightest bit tempting.

Croft/Borland - I might have been tempted by a flier on Joe here - with Borland being somewhat of a name player, and with Joe being basically unknown, I'd have thought we might have got a tempting price for a shot here, but we can't get better than 2/1, which is nowhere near enough to risk it on someone who, while showing things, is coming up against a decent enough opponent on the biggest stage he's going to have played on.

Lane/Gruellich - Market seems about right in this one. Domink looks a bit better from what I can see, but it's not that big a deal and 8/11 on the German looks to be a sensible enough line so not interested in this one.

Turetta/Grundy - An interesting one. Grundy looks better, but we've not seen enough from Michele to get a real read on just how much better. The Italian looks to have enough about him that we're not going to get involved at 8/15, while Robert is not showing enough that we want to start thinking he's going to win enough where we can make any sort of play that way either.

Kist/Geeraets - Just going to take this one off the board. We have no real way of knowing where Kist is at, while Patrick is still very much in the realms of the unknown as to his talents, Christian being a small favourite seems appropriate enough in the context.

Whitehead/Gates - This one seems a bit too close to me? Conan's looked good on occasions, but what's he done recently? Not a great deal I'd argue, so with the line being fairly tight I'm going to take the American for a small play, 0.1u Gates 4/5

Wenig/Lonsdale - This seems like a clear no play, Lukas looks better as far as I can tell, but Tom looks to have enough about him that I don't think Wenig is 4/7 better, at least not that significantly better where I'd want to start throwing bets around.

Bennett/Mitchell - Am I nuts for thinking that Scott is close enough to Leighton that this is flippy? I'm not sure that I am, I love Bennett but I think Mitchell is close enough that we can go with a small nibble at the price we're offered, 0.1u Mitchell 11/8

Burness/Henderson - We have good data on both, we know Hendo's better, the market also knows Hendo's better, maybe he's that much better than Kevin that 1/2 is underestimating the Scot somewhat here, but Burness has the ability to be a tad annoying and be a spoiler, so while I don't hate a Hendo bet, I'm not going to officially recommend one.

Scutt/Plaisier - Scutt looks a touch better in this game where we know a lot about both, and the market's finding it really hard to split the two with neither at odds against. As I'm seeing it around 60/40, I think there's enough edge to go with the sponsors' line, 0.1u Scutt 19/20

Male/Dragt - Martijn enters this one as quite the significant favourite, approaching a 75/25 advantage. I think he's got enough about him that he could cause the upset a decent amount of the time - probably only talking about a touch more than one in three on a gut feeling, but with the price, we'll got for it, 0.1u Male 5/2

Claydon/Lovely - Market is finding it hard to split these and they actually install Thomas as the tiniest of favourites. I don't have a problem with that, it looks hard to pick a winner based on the numbers I can see, gun to head maybe Brett is the play but we don't need to bet, so we won't.

Puha/Klaasen - I would ideally like more data on Haupai, but he's not doing anywhere near enough to make me think he is as close to Jelle as the market suggests - and the market does not have him odds against. 0.1u Klaasen 5/6 and the temptation to go a quarter unit is definitely there. Give me twice the amount of data to confirm more what I'm seeing and I go with it.

Bialecki/Walker - Think this is a fairly easy avoid. Don't think anyone is going to say Jenson is the better player. Don't think anyone is going to say Jenson doesn't have a puncher's chance in this one. Bialecki being a touch shorter than 1/2 appears completely reasonable.

Krohne/Taylor - The market seems to have caught onto Paul's competence and Michael's lack of any real pedigree, at least in what is publicly available, shoving the German at shorter than 1/3. We're not going to touch things at that sort of price.

Killington/Szaganski - This one feels intuitively tight. The market is shading things in favour of Radek - that's not unreasonable in the slightest, but I'm thinking George is extremely live in this one - but 11/10 is not the sort of price where I'd want to speculate in the context of everything we know about these two.

Gregory/Griffin - I'm almost half tempted by a play on Rhys here. There's nothing spectacular about Harry's game, but I think there's just about enough that he might keep Griffin honest, and with Rhys only breaking 4/7 in a couple of random spots, there's not the appeal or the thoughts that there's enough separation between the players to go with it.

Hogg/Beveridge - We really don't know where Jason is at. It's a tough one to speculate on accordingly, but we can look at Darren being around 1/2 or even shorter and come to the conclusion that it's not that unreasonable a line to price up.

Pilgrim/Richardson - There's not too many places that have seemingly priced this up, but I think that's an oddschecker naming issue, but what I could see gives Darryl a really strong implied chance which looks to be around the right area, so we move on.

Sumner/Nijman - Wessel's just so much better here. Coralbrokes are giving a bit of a silly line, 0.5u Nijman 1/5, we'll just take that and insure against one of the fliers, Nijman's scarily good and a relatively unknown Rileys qualifier isn't going to be able to live with that standard.

It's already gone 1am without me noticing, so I'm going to cap things for now at round one, and whack through the ten second round games and five third round games before the off tomorrow as we've got a bit of time to work with before those go live.

Friday morning edit - Pre known round 2/3 matches:

Labre/Lennon - Lennon is a strong favourite, but not quite the overwhelming favourite on the numbers that I thought he'd be, so with a best price of 1/4, I'm not actually entertaining the bet, seems as if Jacques is just doing enough, which does surprise me significantly but I'll trust the numbers rather than have a long odds on catastrophe.

Sparidaans/Perez - Appears tight. Christian might just have the smallest of edges, and he's correctly priced as just odds on versus Jeffrey's just odds against, so this is another easy avoid.

Klose/Warner - Klose should win this one quite comfortably, I like Warner but he's a clear second best here, I've got Daniel up at around the mid 70's range so 4/11 best price isn't really moving the needle.

Monk/Slevin - Numbers are throwing Monk back at us around 60/40, which doesn't seem unreasonable, he's actually odds against in several places so I'll take that, 0.1u Monk 11/10

Nentjes/Rupprecht - Pascal looks a tiny favourite from what I can see such is the state of Geert's form, it's only 55/45, but it looks like the market is already on this and if anything overreacting a tad.

van Peer/Kuivenhoven - Berry's the better player but Maik's still pretty competent so I'm only seeing 60/40 or there abouts, typical price is 8/11 which is about right but the exchanges are offering a bit more of a price closer to evens which may be worth a look.

van der Velde/de Zwaan - Jeffrey's better, it's a bit more than 60/40 but not quite 2/1, we can see a price of 4/7 which looks just about perfect to me.

Sedlacek/Owen - Karel is still being returned as a favourite, although it's only a tad more than 55/45, Owen's 11/8 so it's another one where we're seeing what we'd be expecting to see.

Goffin/Kenny - Nick's basically winning this two times out of three, the market's seeing three times out of four which looks to me to be a bit overstating the difference in quality, but I don't have the confidence in Callum's game to have a nibble at what's approaching 11/4, if I'm taking big underdogs I've got to have some faith in their ability to get matches won when they get into a position to do it and that just isn't here.

Roelofs/Burton - Pure flip to me. Absolutely pure flip. Burton's got the market edge, but the vig levels aren't giving me enough of an edge on Owen to go with it, needing probably 11/8 or longer. We're close, but no, again the exchanges might be where you need to go.

Krcmar/Edhouse - Into round three, everything about this one says it's close but that Boris has a small, 55/45 advantage, which looking at the market is baked into his 4/5 price already.

Lukeman/Wattimena - Another one that's close on paper, it's throwing up Lukeman as a similar edged favourite to Krcmar, and the lines are about the same again, if anything the market likes Martin a tad more, but certainly not enough where we can go with Jermaine.

O'Connor/Suljovic - Mensur's numbers are actually keeping this a touch closer than I thought, and it's giving us a third 55/45 in a row, albeit in favour of the Magpie, Mensur's 5/4 so it's another boring market looks right game.

Mansell/White - White's got the better game, it's a little bit more favoured than the last three but we're not even up to 60%, that's just how well Mickey is playing, but there's a few places that are giving White at evens, and the exchanges are showing 2.1 or better, 0.1u White evs is absolutely worth the punt here.

Rodriguez/Razma - Absolute handicapper's nightmare this one. Anything can happen. Madars is better, and with numbers up near 65% he's worth the stab, 0.1u Razma 4/5 on Hills, Rowby could turn it round and Madars could stink, but getting home three in five doesn't seem outrageous so we bet this.

Just getting under way now.

1114 - Looking like we're live in one of our first bets, Male's outdoing Dragt on the averages after a dodgy start, has got the break back, still needs another but he's live at least. Scutt/Plaisier's on throw and appears tight so Connor's going to need a good leg to break somewhere.

1119 - Male gets the break so just needs to hold from here, Geeraets and Haines are legs away from what I think would be upsets.

1121 - Haines gets the win, that looks like a really good performance. Harry Lane's also one away, but Dragt's broken straight back so we're in News of the World territory.

1126 - Harry Lane gets through with a competent enough display, being particularly strong where Gruellich was actually winning legs. Should be live against Huybrechts you would think. Geeraets nicks it but ought to be a dog to Smith-Neale.

1131 - Killington wins a stinker against Szaganski, going to need to up it next round but against Knops he's still going to be live. Plaisier/Scutt went all holds, good contest, loss for the bets but we'll take it, Taylor nicks a scrappy one against Western in the decider and didn't look great, while Male gets our first win on the board with what looked like a comedy doubling break in a decider against Dragt!

1135 - Seeing early prices of 2/1 Haines. Would probably need a bit more but if he plays like he did in round one, that wouldn't be awful. Brooks up 3-1 on Crabtree is a good start.

1139 - 4/6 on Adam Smith-Neale appears kind of tempting with Patrick not doing anything spectacular. Will see if it's priced any closer once more books go live, but will probably add this in the next few minutes.

1142 - Mitchell's got a break on Bennett, so all going OK there. Lane's not even priced at 7/4, I'd have thought we could have got a bit more but the numbers from round one don't lie.

1143 - Brooks safely home for the win, and it looks like Coleman's just got the critical break. Unless nobody could hold for the first four legs.

1145 - 0.1u Smith-Neale 4/6, not seeing anything better coming so will take it, seems easily better than a 60/40 game for him.

1149 - Lane's as short as 11/10 in some books lol. Also not seeing timely updating of stage boards on Dart Connect, stage 2's just finished game 2 and Scutt/Plaisier isn't up yet. Coleman's also in a world of trouble down 5-3.

1152 - Coleman does indeed go down to drop us back to 2-2 for the day. Tim played well in fairness. May need to go manual on the stage games once this batch of back room games goes final with multiple in leg 9 onwards.

1157 - Dart Connect appears dead, but X indicates we at least got the win in the Mitchell game.

1200 - Dart Connect back working. Really surprised to see Pilgrim lose but looks like Richardson had a blinder.

1203 - So on catchups, Richardson did indeed have the performance of the round so far with three twelve darters or better. Meulenkamp also looked really good on board two after checking, Mitchell was solid, Griffin also fought well to advance. Time to recheck bookies.

1207 - Seeing a wide variety of prices on Killington's next game.

1210 - Knops on Hills is stupidly long compared to other bookies. Got to feel it'll be palped so I won't recommend it, but 2/1 with the way Killington played in round one? Take the shot if you want but don't expect to be paid on it.

1216 - Bad few minutes for our bets - van Dongen misses match darts against Tricole and loses, while Klaasen missed a bunch of doubles and has gifted Puha a break. Looks as if Dart Connect is slowly catching up on stage matches with the Scutt game just being entered now.

1217 - Someone look at the Paul Krohne match and tell me where the hell that eleven darter came from in the decider?

1222 - Dennant looked very good in his win over de Graaf. I'm going to ride the Richardson train now, 0.1u Richardson 6/4 given how well he played and that Brown remains unconvincing, if he can beat Pilgrim he can make the evening session.

1225 - Puha goes through after Klaasen rectified things sadly. Hendo moves safely on, and Joe Croft held his nerve really well - got to be very tough to go from 4-0 up to 4-5 in that situation and still come through.

1230 - Probably going to add Graham Hall shortly. Taylor was very fortunate and I'm seeing 4/9 - will just give it a minute to see if anyone prices things a bit better. Whitehead has started disgustingly well, which is a worry.

1235 - 0.25u Hall 4/9, not seeing anything better straight away. Roes looks like he's throwing the game away dropping to 4-2 behind.

1241 - Solid turn around from Gates, now leading 5-4, just got to close it out now. May be tempted by a play on Lee Evans against Landman if and when I see prices.

1242 - Lendog gets the job done, but what on earth is happening to Bialecki, 4-1 down?

1245 - 0.25u Evans 7/4 on 365, others have this closer to a flip, will lock this in on sight.

1249 - Round one close to being finished up, Roes didn't have enough, doesn't look like either played great so a missed opportunity I feel. Beveridge through but not looking fantastic so may consider Mitchell in round two.

1252 - First line I see on Mitchell looks like evens, I am not sure that's enough. Will wait and see. The Master wins a decider, nice.

1255 - Nijman still winning, but going worryingly off the boil with the average plummeting, maybe they both missed a bunch of doubles in one leg but this isn't quite as trivial as it should be.

1259 - Nijman's safely home. Evans against Landman is a touch longer on Betfair so have cashed out the 7/4 and taken 9/5, suggest you do the same if you're on it.

1302 - Looks like DC's having another pause, so will update FRH ranking sheet with round one results while we wait.

1312 - Looks as if DC's caught up. Smith-Neale lost to the one break, looked a bit below par, Monk's also off to a bit of a rough start as well but plenty of time to turn it around.

1315 - 0.25u Nijman 11/10 on 365, they've really priced it odds against? Ladbrokes has it 4/9. Will scratch this from the record if it gets palped obviously.

1320 - Bit surprised to see Rupprecht go out, but that looks to have been the best we've seen from Nentjes for some time. Not seeing much else of interest in round two in terms of further punts, most lines are now up so it's waiting time for round three I guess. Extremely steady performance from Kuivenhoven as well to eliminate van Peer.

1323 - On Nentjes, I'm kind of tempted to fire at small odds against versus Meikle. Ordinarily I wouldn't touch it given the form of both, but if Geert's shown something, maybe it's worth the play? Good leads for both Croft and Knops right now, also 365 has moved the Nijman price to evens, so maybe this actually gets through, moving it by just one tick ought to be a good sign?

1326 - Monk loses, not a great look, just had too many legs where he did nothing on the scoring. We're down a touch but the remaining bets I feel decent about so time to recover.

1328 - Now Betfair have priced Nijman up at 10/11, which is nice.

1333 - Big comeback from George Killington, showing a bit more so maybe we consider him against King? I'd probably have a think about Kuivenhoven given his performance, but a best of 6/5 against Whitlock isn't really interesting.

1339 - Big win for Joe Croft, his next round game against Keane Barry should be a good one. Also checking the scores, Owen performed very well against Sedlacek, Doets is going to be tough but maybe there's enough there to have a nibble, we'll see.

1340 - Got three bets live now - Hall looks to be on throw with Taylor but will need a break, while the plays on Richardson and Evans are just going live. Joshua's just lost the first, looks like a missed double special or something.

1344 - Quick look at some round three lines, Owen and Perez both seem a bit too short, not liking their chances at the lines offered but not really wanting to go the other way on either of them.

1348 - Hall kind of not performing, Taylor looks a touch better and has just got a break, Graham was alright through four but is tailing off badly. Evans has a 3-0 lead though.

1353 - Hall gives us an L, was perfectly fine for three legs then turned into a pub player, but Richardson has a break at 4-2 with the throw and Evans is 5-0 up.

1358 - Big few minutes - Evans completed the whitewash of Landman, Richardson completed a 6-2 win over Keegan Brown, and Nijman's 3-1 up with the throw after losing the first leg so looking good in that one. Can start to look at round three new games soon, interesting that Labre is holding his own somewhat so maybe our assessment that Lennon was overvalued was correct?

1400 - Seems as if Brett Claydon has pulled the upset over Andy Baetens, but the game is nowhere to be seen on sportradar. Hopefully that causes no issues with Dart Connect.

1402 - Never mind, it's on DC already, all is fine.

1404 - Labre now 5-4 up, I hope this isn't a missed opportunity. Nijman and Zonneveld are exchanging breaks, Wessel is still on throw but getting to 5-3 instead of 4-4 with yet another break would be real nice if possible.

1407 - Lee Evans is longer than 2/1 on 365, and 5/4 on Ladbrokes. Do I take it? I'm not sure he's quite that close to Ricky though. Labre also gets the job done, that for me is probably the biggest shock of the day.

1414 - Still not seeing anything that looks overly exciting in round three. That Lee Evans line is probably the closest thing there is. Will give it time, there's still a lot of round two games to finish.

1418 - That is one heck of a turnaround by Graham Usher!

1420 - I see just sneaking through on what I assume to be board two that Gates got past Griffin. Jim Williams is probably going to be a bet as I imagine he'll be undervalued as usual.

1423 - Brett Claydon seems rather tempting. Soutar's better, and he's playing better this year, but I'm not sure he's that much better given Laddies are offering north of 5/2. Ladbrokes quick pricing of Gates indicates that the value on Jim probably isn't going to be there though.

1425 - Yeah, small flier, 0.1u Claydon 27/10 with Ladbrokes.

1434 - Looking like it's another brief pause for DC. 365 are offering a price on Williams that is a bit closer, but still nothing doing.

1442 - Still nothing doing on the DC end. Half tempted by Mario against Hempel, but that second round game isn't confidence building.

1446 - So it seems as if DC is recognising that the games are finished, but not actually reporting any of the scoring, given it's dropped all the live games in some sort of order that's consistent with that theory. It's a waiting game right now.

1451 - Looks like we've just had a big data dump. Nobody in the games that I've caught up on really inspired, so will just wait for the couple of stage games to finish, and then probably have one last look at round three.

1502 - Pretty slow start for White, coupled with a rapid one from Mansell, Ian's on the board now but may already have too much to do. Wasn't expecting Suljovic to be 4-0 up. Dart Connect blaming the wifi - surely after last year this should have been sorted, and why the hell are they using wifi in the first place?

1504 - Daniel Klose is 6/4 on Ladbrokes against Plaisier. Are we even sure he should be an underdog in that one? Suljovic completes the whitewash, and in another good sign for the card holding veterans, van der Voort also moves through.

1515 - Better on 365, 0.1u Klose 13/8. White is making a fight of it!

1518 - And then White has a terrible scoring leg as Mansell leaves a two darter after twelve, and duly cleans up. Oh well.

1534 - Just working through the round three games now. Menzies seems like he should be close to a play, but with Thibault's game only just closing up round two, it'll take a bit for more than one line to filter through. Claydon's holding his own at 3-3 with Soutar.

1539 - Claydon gets the key break and is now one away, as Joshua Richardson nicks a nailbiting decider against Jamie Hughes, nice work.

1544 - Claydon finishes the job, and it looks as if Razma is in a strong position against Rowby, which unless we see a slightly better line on Menzies will probably do for us in terms of bets.

1550 - Seems as if Tricole had a very quick turnaround and is already in play, so with it looking like Razma's about to blow a big lead, we're just down to the Klose/Plaisier game then we're done, guaranteed to be up for the session.

1613 - Klose's got himself into a decent position, up 4-2 with the darts. Probably should have just fired on Menzies as he won as well, but didn't have a great deal of time to react.

1619 - Pretty cool spot where we've got three German players on three adjacent boards all 5-3 up. Can they all convert?

1626 - And they do! Klose finishes up our book nicely in the green, but Tim Wolters dumping out Joyce is the big one.