Dobey/Woodhouse - Feel as if Luke's a tad undervalued here, I'm getting him in the high 30% range, whereas a price of 7/4 puts him in the low range, the vigless line says pretty much 2:1, so maybe there's a hint of value there, but Chris continues to look really good and Luke couldn't even average 90 today and needed a big comeback, so I think I can pass on this one.
Wright/Chisnall - Peter's playing a lot better than he has done over the past couple of weeks, but I really don't think it's enough that we should just abandon the large data which puts Chizzy at getting close to having a 65% chance to win the game, and there's nothing in the afternoon session that wants to dissuade me. I will temper the bet sizing given Peter's form, but still go with the 365 line, 0.1u Chisnall 4/5
Pietreczko/van Duijvenbode - Looks to me like the line is close enough on this one. I'm getting Dirk at just above 70% to take it, and the lines are typically in the 1/2, 4/9 sort of range. Maybe if Ricardo is regaining some form after a pretty extended spell of doing nothing, so we can maybe draw the projection in a couple of points, but that just brings things from "maybe the tiniest value on Dirk" to "no value on anyone, so we'll just ignore this one as well.
Searle/Humphries - Luke nearly went down to one Ryan, can he dodge another? Searle's good, and has enough that he's limiting Humphries' win projections to less than two in three, albeit only just. Everything is showing around the 9/4 sort of range, which might be undervaluing Searle slightly, but it's not by a great deal and going against the clear best player in the field, I don't want to push rather small edges.
Doubt I'm back before the semis with the NFL on, but if Wright does turn Chizzy over I wouldn't be surprised if going with the winner of Dobey/Woodhouse turns out to be a correct play.
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