Sunday 29 May 2022

Any last 16 value?

OK, looks like lines are finally up, and I think there's three players that are close to plays. Gilding's the first of them, I'm thinking he should be 6/4 and we can actually get 2/1, albeit only on Unibet. This is very close, and I wouldn't hate the play if you can get the Unibet price - anywhere else isn't good enough. Second is Heta - we can get slightly odds against when I think he should be about a 4/5 favourite. 13/10 that's available on 365 and Betfred is extremely close to being value and I should probably recommend the play, but Smith looked extremely good yesterday and Heta had some pretty average legs even outside of the clownshow one where all the doubles were missed (he wasn't exactly scoring heavy then missing like a dozen in that one, he wasn't on a finish after fifteen), so I can just about prevent myself from pulling the trigger. Last one is Dobey, but this one isn't as close as the others. 1/2 I think would have been about right, he is only 4/6 on one minor book and 8/13 generally available, Dobey looked good in defeating our tip yesterday, but King's just got a big win which might spur him on, so I can pass on that. So nothing here, but if you want to take those three, they still represent plays that aren't bad. Off work tomorrow, so should come back with ranking updates then.

Saturday 28 May 2022

Zwolle last 16 thoughts

Word in advance, I definitely will not be able to get anything into play for the evening session, looks to me that most books are being incredibly lax in terms of getting lines up for the afternoon session, so I'm just going to post up where I'm expecting the lines to be for now, then will make a quick post in the morning hoping they've caught up.

Meikle/Krcmar - Straight coinflip
Wright/Noppert - 6/4 Noppert
Whitlock/Larsson - Who knows, real lack of data on Larsson
van Gerwen/Rydz - 9/4 Rydz
Chisnall/van Duijvenbode - 5/4 Chizzy
Searle/Gilding - 6/4 Gilding
Heta/Smith - 5/4 Smith
King/Dobey - 2/1 King

I'm not entirely sure looking at that what will represent value, but I'm thinking Dobey might be the play, possibly Heta as well. We'll see in the morning.

Zwolle day 2 bets

Two out of three yesterday, the main Meikle play came home which made the other two a freeroll, split those one each to break even on them. Marginal stuff we looked at but didn't fire on didn't work out, but hey, we showed restraint so it didn't cost us. Going to be rapid fire again, I will try to be a bit more in depth on round three after the Champions League final.

Ratajski/Gilding: 0.1u Gilding 13/8, I really want to go a quarter of a unit here as the edge is there for it, but the consistency makes a big difference, Gilding's is moderately high and Ratajski's is pretty low. This was kind of in play in the Meikle game as well, but I didn't notice until afterwards, whoops.
Searle/Smith: no bet.
Heta/Waites: no bet, but it's kind of close to a play on Damon.
van den Bergh/Krcmar: 0.1u Krcmar 11/4, it's a long shot underdog so only going small, but Boris is playing well enough that he projects to win around 40% of the time, compared to under 30% which these odds represent. Wouldn't hate a quarter unit play.
Aspinall/Larsson: no bet, feels like it's a bit too favoured towards Nathan but with limited data on Daniel I'm not going to say 5/1 is great or anything. Average yesterday was only 88 after all.
Dolan/Rydz: no bet.
Schindler/Noppert: this is kind of similar to the Gilding situation, except here Noppert has an extra few percent, plus the home field advantage, so I don't think I can fire on Schindler despite projecting a bit better than the 13/8 that's available suggests.
de Sousa/Chisnall: no bet.
Cross/Meikle: no bet, but it's close on Meikle again. It should be a bit tighter, would be more confident if we've seen Ryan get a couple of good back to back games more often, which is what he will need.
Cullen/Whitlock: no bet.
van Duijvenbode/Mansell: no bet.
Wright/Wattimena: no bet.
van Gerwen/Klaasen: no bet.
Price/King: no bet.
Smith/Jansen: no bet.
Dobey/Edhouse: 0.1u Edhouse 9/5, that's on Unibet, 7/4 also generally good, Edhouse has been playing deceptively well and, while there's a little bit of a consistency issue, does project at nearer to 45% than 40%, so with these odds representing 35% chances coupled with Dobey seemingly lacking a few results of late, I think it's worth a stab. Would have been nice if Edhouse got an actual win rather than a bye for "momentum" (did Jim miss his flight?), but we'll just go with this.

Round three when available.

Friday 27 May 2022

Zwolle day 1 bets

Oddschecker is actually working, it's a miracle. On short notice here so will blast through with minimal commentary:

Krcmar/Lennon - no bet.
Williams/Edhouse - no bet, but kind of close to going Edhouse.
Boulton/Meikle - 0.25u Meikle 10/11, looks a good favourite here.
Scutt/Waites - no bet.
Burness/Smith - no bet.
Gilding/Plaisier - no bet, model says no, head wonders if this isn't Gilding as I don't know if Plaisier's level of play is sustainable.
Larsson/Vandenbogaerde - no bet, lack of data on Daniel but he's looked a bit better of late.
Bialecki/Klaasen - no bet.
Mansell/Zonneveld - no bet, real close to Zonneveld. Odds against and not evens and we probably go.
Wattimena/Eidams - no bet, no real data on Eidams but Jermaine's not really good enough to justify a near 3/1 on punt.
Bellmont/King - no bet, but pondering Bellmont. Can get 7/2, not looked too bad in limited showings, King not having a great year. Wouldn't hate a small flier.
Whitlock/Hughes - 0.1u Hughes 11/10, this is kind of close to the Zonneveld/Edhouse situations but we're getting just enough in terms of odds to go small.
Kleermaker/Rydz - no bet.
Noppert/Konterman - no bet, but 6/1 on someone who's come through a Dutch associate qualifier at least has to be considered. Pity it's versus Noppert.
Jansen/van der Voort - 0.1u Jansen 5/4, pretty much the same scenario as above but slightly better. Somewhere's offering longer odds than this but oddschecker is 404'ing the breakdown. If you can get wherever is saying 27/20 then maybe crank it up to a quarter unit.
Chisnall/Razma - no bet.

Monday 23 May 2022

Post-Stuttgart update

Good god, Humphries is absolutely destroying it, three Euro Tours in the bank now, two in two weekends, Cross now with an unbelievable 0-7 record in Euro Tour finals. Surely he gets one soon, he's playing well enough. FRH ranking update:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Rob Cross (UP 1)
7 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
8 Luke Humphries (UP 5)
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Gary Anderson (DOWN 3)
12 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
13 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Damon Heta (UP 2)
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 2)
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Clearly Luke is the big gainer, but back to back finals for Cross has seen him get above Clayton for now. Ando's continued absence from the Euro Tour sees him drop outside of the top 10, while Heta's steady accumulation has got him up into the top 16. Lower down, people who've got at least 5k over the last two Euro Tours include Dolan (#22), Gurney (#25), van der Voort (#26), Ross Smith (#30), Schindler (#37), Lewis (#40), Rowby (#43) is making big gains with back to back final sessions, Lukeman (#65) will hit the top 64 probably tomorrow on continual adjustments, Gawlas (#67), and finally Mansell (#86).

It's a real interesting question as to how many players are better than Humphries right now. I've got him at fifth in scoring in 2022, behind van Gerwen, Anderson (albeit he's not even played 250 legs, Humphries has LOST more than that), Heta and Wright. I'm pretty pleased that Luke, at least on the book I placed my each way punt on a couple of weeks ago he's now 20/1 compared to 33/1 which I've got. Mushnt grumble.

Sunday 22 May 2022

Quarter final breakeven lines

Will get these up quickly, these do not include any data from the last 16 matches:

Schindler 2/1 Heta 1/2

Rodriguez 15/8 Cross 8/15

Dolan 4/11 Murnan 11/4
Dolan 7/4 Humphries 4/7

Noppert 6/4 Wright 4/6
Noppert 5/4 Clayton 4/5
Rafferty 3/1 Wright 1/3
Rafferty 11/4 Clayton 4/11

Would expect in reality Clayton to be shorter

Stuttgart day 3

Solid gain on the day thanks to Gilding, sure it was a bit of a messy game (30 dart leg, survived a match dart, missed a few doubles in leg 2 which would have given nice breathing room) but the win is the win. Gave a quarter of the winnings back on Lewis who got to exactly where we wanted at 2-0 up on the throw, then generally couldn't score heavily enough, and when he did, he either missed doubles or ran into a twelve from Clayton. Oh well. Maybe some missed opportunities with Lukeman pulling out the big upset along with Rowby and Rafferty getting the job done, if you were a bit more risk averse than me you'll have got rewarded. Eight quick matches to run through this afternoon, I doubt I'll be able to put anything up for the evening session but will try to give rough projections in a separate post in case you want to work things out for yourself.

Schindler/Lukeman - Martin wasted no time in defeating Razma just conceding the two legs, the other Martin managed to take down van Gerwen conceding even less. Wow. Market has this fairly close with Schindler approaching a 60% chance, that feels about right. I'm getting 57%. Might be a little bit more with the home field advantage but I doubt that shifts things anywhere near enough to consider a best price of 4/6.

Heta/Searle - Probably two of the strongest names left in the field, Damon needed all eleven legs to see off Mickey Mansell, while Ryan didn't have a great deal of trouble despatching Adam Gawlas in eight. Market has this incredibly close with Heta having the tiny edge, I tend to agree with this assessment giving Heta just 5% greater winning chances than Searle, so nothing in this one either.

Rodriguez/Gurney - Rowby dropped just the one leg against Cullen, we thought he had chances but I didn't think that scoreline was in anyway realistic, Gurney was made to work against Eddie Lovely, taking it down by the one break after being forced all the way to 4-4. Think Rowby has a small edge in this one, approaching a 55% chance, but the market puts him as a small underdog. This is very close to a play at 5/4, if he'd played better yesterday (despite the scoreline his averaging was not brilliant) I'd likely go with it, Daryl wasn't good yesterday either but I think he responds and did recognise it was not a good game from him. Will watch and grab 11/8 if it appears anywhere.

Cross/Ratajski - Rob needed a decider against Klaasen, not a great doubling show but got the one that counted, while Ratajski was clinical in a 6-2 rout over Huybrechts, not missing a dart at double in the whole game. This feels close on paper, market favours Cross by somewhere in the 55-60% region, maybe Ratajski has a little bit more of a chance than that but I still project Rob to win it and as such there is not the edge there.

Gilding/Dolan - Big opportunity for both here, Andrew we mentioned earlier, Brendan looked pretty decent in a 6-4 win over the dangerous Danny Jansen. Market has this real close with Dolan slightly favoured, Gilding is 11/10 which isn't enough. I've got him at 51%, would probably go at 11/8 and with yesterday's win I can't see the money going on Brendan enough for us to see a market move.

Murnan/Humphries - Joe took advantage of some missed chances from Dimitri to nick a decider and advance to the last 16, while Luke was also taken to a decider by Meikle who missed three darts for a critical break at 4-4. Oh well. Market is all over Luke and I can't disagree with it, Joe's got his moments but I only see him at 17% to claim this one. 2/9 Humphries is not actually a bad bet, that's basically a shade better than break even.

Wright/Clayton - Seems to be fairly often where we get the two biggest names left playing at this stage, whether these are the two best players is an entirely different question. Mentioned Clayton earlier, Wright didn't have too much trouble with Engstrom, Johan got a couple of early holds but Wright was cruising from there. Tricky one to call, I have Peter as a tiny favourite, the market has it the other way around. This is similar to the Rowby spot, if any more comes on Clayton I'd certainly think about it, but given my projections have had a tendency to underestimate Jonny, I doubt we ever see it in reality.

Noppert/Rafferty - Danny eliminated Michael Smith in a good game where Noppert had the lower average (at 102), while Nathan got a nice scalp in taking down Dirk van Duijvenbode with a ton average of his own. The market doesn't give Rafferty much of a shot at 11/4, we've liked him in both games (one a recommended play, one not quite so much) but he runs into one of our old favourites in this one, and I really can't call the play here. He's a little bit underrated, but I only see 31%, the odds we can get say 27%, so it's not quite there. If he was actually north of 3/1, then I'd start thinking about it.

So no actual bets on day 3, Rodriguez and Wright seem the closest to bets and I wouldn't stop anyone from taking those plays.

Saturday 21 May 2022

Stuttgart day 2

Will take yesterday, would have been better if Zonneveld could have served it out obviously, but picking up both Gilding and Rafferty at a price that rapidly shortened in both cases is a decent enough return. Sixteen games today so let's get straight to it:

Heta/Mansell - Should be a good test for Mickey this after a comfortable win against Szaganski where he wasn't really tested but still played decent enough, market thinks Heta more than 75%, that seems fair enough, I've got this as bang on 80/20.

van den Bergh/Murnan - Joe whitewashed Lukas Wenig, didn't need to do a whole lot to do so but hit quite a few maxes and was good on the doubles so won't be trivial for Dimitri, although the market's got this one at round about the same price as the first game. This seems a little bit closer than that one though, Joe's got slightly over 25%, but not as much as 30% so no real value here either.

Searle/Gawlas - Good job from Adam in round one, ton average to defeat one tricky Ryan, and now he gets another, and the market's giving him ever so slightly better chances than the first two games, floating at about 30%. I'm not sure why though, Searle is an incredibly tough opponent and I've got this one 75/25. Again, another spot where there's not the edge to recommend a play.

Gurney/Lovely - Eddie got the bye, Daryl is somehow still seeded, Lovely was hitting some good stuff about a year ago but seems a touch quieter now, although still playing well enough that I'm rating him at about a one in three shot, this against Gurney who's continuing to get back to where he was. 3/1 is kind of half tempting, but without the first round game to really look at, I'm not sure I can recommend a play. It's very close though, 100/30 I'd probably grab.

de Sousa/Gilding - Good landing spot for Andrew this, who one duff leg from both aside had zero trouble against John Michael as expected, Jose had a decent run last time out but still seems a touch on the quiet side, both players' form being recognised with Andrew not even a 2/1 dog. Do think we can go with this, Andrew's actually scoring better than Jose in 2022, so we'll take Hills offering, 0.25u Gilding 7/4, they're the only ones at that price but this is still good down to 6/4, maybe ever so slightly shorter.

Ratajski/Huybrechts - Kim came through a decider with Bunting where he avoided a match dart, little bit of a scrappy game on the scoring, but he's got Ratajski which is a fair bit of a step up in class over Stephen, although many may not necessarily see it that way. Line of 4/7 on Krzysztof that I'm seeing in most places looks spot on, so nothing more to see here.

Dolan/Jansen - Danny only lost the one leg in an easy enough win against Kleermaker, who missed quite a few shots at double, Danny might need to pick his game up against Brendan who should be a bit of a tougher test, although the market is rating Danny in the high thirties in terms of win percentage, so it is recognising he can play. I see it 65/35, so no real edge either way, maybe Dolan being slightly undervalued but nothing to write home about.

Cross/Klaasen - Jelle caused a bit of an upset by eliminating Callan Rydz in round one, just throwing in consistent two treble visits and generally generating more chances than his opponent. Rob will be a tougher test still, and the market's got a bit of vig but is basically saying 25% Jelle. That feels about right, on the limited data I have maybe Jelle's a tick or so better than that, but can't really recommend anything.

Cullen/Rodriguez - Into the evening session we go and we've got the most recent Premier League night winner up against Rowby, who against Williams saw good scoring, scrappy doubling, and then a four visit break in the decider. Timing's everything. Rowby's playing well and has chances, I'm looking at 60/40 Cullen from where I'm standing which makes 7/4 on Rowby not quite enough, I think anything north of 2/1 I'd take.

Humphries/Meikle - This could be spicy if Ryan steps up, he didn't need to really get out of second gear to beat a faltering Ron Meulenkamp, but he'll need to do so here, that said his top game can give the multiple time Euro Tour winner (we can say that now) problems. Looks like Luke should take this more than 70% but not quite 75% of the time, such is the standard he's playing at right now, Meikle is 7/2 which is getting close to thinking about taking a flier, but it's so hard to bet against Humphries at this moment in time without a really good reason to do so.

Clayton/Lewis - Adie needed to come from behind to defeat Luke Woodhouse, 91 average not really that impressive but any time you go from 5-2 down to a 6-5 win, you've got to draw some positives. Market really isn't rating Lewis in this one, rare that you'd be able to get him at 3/1, I think he's got enough of a chance that it's worth the shot, 0.1u Lewis 3/1, I'm thinking 35% so there is a bit more of an edge compared to other long shots that we've been tempted with.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Martin was made to work against Stefan Bellmont, but got over the line 6-3 in the end after a bit of a scrappy beginning to the match, and here's a good match to really test where his game is at. 9/2 is what we can get, and this seems incredibly close to a play. I'd have put the fair line at 100/30, if Lukeman had been a little bit more clinical yesterday then maybe I fire the shot, but I'll keep my money in my pocket here, although it is notable to see that MvG is getting back to the stage where he might be a little bit too short in lots of games. One to keep an eye on.

Schindler/Razma - Madars was made to fight against Zonneveld in a weird game where both players hit ten darters ending on unexpected doubles, he lost the averaged by quite some way and will need to tighten up against Schindler who was promoted into the seeds for this event. Market's thinking 2-1 in favour of Martin, that looks fine, maybe Madars has a couple percent more chance than that, but no lines are significantly off what I'm seeing.

Wright/Engstrom - Johan got a pretty big upset in seeing off Clemens, now faces Wright, no real analysis needed here, I lack the data on Johan to make a fair assessment but Peter at 1/12 is of no interest, and 8/1 on Engstrom I guess seems fair.

Smith/Noppert - Real tough draw for both, Noppert being unseeded is a bit of an anomaly and Smith's back to winning tournaments, this UK Open rematch rates to me as being in favour of Michael, just a bit over 55/45, market is saying 4/5 Smith and the inverse for Noppie, so yeah, let's just get to the last game.

van Duijvenbode/Rafferty - DvD's the last man up and will play Nathan who didn't average or finish that great against Horvat, but generated enough chances to get the job done. This is a huge step up in quality and I'd expect a fair line to be about 11/4 - we can get 7/2, which isn't quite enough to get excited about given Nathan was a bit lacklustre yesterday.

So just the two plays, plenty of longer shots that seem close to plays, if you like one of the likes of Lovely, Rowby, Meikle, Lukeman or Rafferty a bit more than I am, then take the shot.

Friday 20 May 2022

Stuttgart day 1 - just the bets

0.5u Gilding 3/10, as thought, this isn't short enough on 365. Betfair are much shorter than this, Ladbrokes much the same. I see no realistic way Michael wins this one.

0.25u Zonneveld 11/10, same bookie, enough of an edge to bet this, would have hoped for a little bit longer but this'll do.

Close to Szaganski at just longer than 2/1 but recent form and possible lack of stage experience makes me halt. Wouldn't hate the punt.

Williams at even is really, really tempting, but it's a case of how much stock I put into consistency. After all, the projection which disregards that says it's a flip.

0.25u Rafferty 4/5, this seems way off. Did Horvat have a good quali or something? I think even peak Dragutin doesn't make this a bad bet and there's a severe lack of evidence we have that.

Sedlacek is close to being worth a short stab, but it'd only be for 0.1u and I don't think it's really worth chasing this even if the line moves to better than 3/1.

Thursday 19 May 2022

Stuttgart round one thoughts

Incredibly frustrating that we've got different big players withdrawing, and because the PDC decided to hold all the host nation qualifiers in advance, we've got no replacement. Despite them holding a playoff at the actual qualifier for this exact eventuality. The mind boggles. Still, that means that Schindler gets the dubious privilege of getting promoted to the #16 seed, and Eddie Lovely gets a first round bye and a winnable second round game against Daryl Gurney. I can't see any lines yet, so will just post up some thoughts for now - if there's lines up later tonight I'll probably post tips later tonight, otherwise it'll be in the morning.

Gilding/Michael - Should be a very easy Gilding this one. Michael's had some flashes, as he always does, but he's nearly ten points behind Andrew on scoring. Whatever price this comes up at, it won't be short enough, 1/8 looks fair!

Razma/Zonneveld - Madars has looked decent so far in 2022, while we've not heard a great deal from Niels since he regained his card. Niels is however scoring more than Madars is, he's a little bit more inconsistent but 8/11 looks about right to me. Would imagine Razma enters as favourite, so could be an opportunity here.

Gawlas/Joyce - Entertaining one this, Adam off of the back of a good run while Joyce is still in that top 32 fringes zone, but a bit off major qualification which he really needs to threaten those spots. Joyce looks the solidly better player in 2022 with deceptively good stats given his quiet set of results, good few points better than Gawlas and ought to be around 4/9.

Szaganski/Mansell - Hard to know what to make of Radek, not seen a whole lot of him play, especially in comparison to Mickey, who's come onto our radar a bit over the last couple of weeks with some decent results. There's only a couple of points between them in the scoring and consistency looks similar, so a projection of about Mansell 4/6 seems about right.

Bellmont/Lukeman - Data's a little bit limited on Stefan, only 31 legs played with scoring of 87 in them, which puts him a fair bit behind Lukeman. Don't think this is a formality for Martin, but I would imagine a line of around 1/3 is in the right ballpark.

Meikle/Meulenkamp - The RM derby! Ryan has played competently and is outscoring Ron well enough that he comes in here as a favourite between two players who are looking to add a bit of a buffer between themselves and the cutoff in the tour card race. This projects at 8/11 in favour of Ryan, but Ron is playing some fairly inconsistent stuff so a fair line might actually be a few ticks shorter.

Murnan/Wenig - We've seen a fair bit of Wenig over the last couple of years without really seeing him set the house on fire, while Joe has had some good runs but maybe not so much over the past twelve months which has seen him slide a little bit. Joe's got about three points a turn on Lukas who we have just about enough data on to make me think Murnan ought to be 8/15 when lines show up.

Klaasen/Rydz - This ought to be played at a nice pace and could result in a fair few maxes, we've got a good 70 or so legs on Jelle who has scored near to 89 in multiple events across several organisations and formats, but that's a good 3+ points below Callan, not the easiest draw for either but Callan ought to be around 1/2. Might be shorter in real life, maybe lack of sample is overrating Klaasen a touch.

Williams/Rodriguez - Two players here who have made a good start to 2022, making the Matchplay might be a little bit out of reach, but the Grand Prix is certainly on the horizon for both, Jim being the last player out and Rowby within 10k of the cutoff as things stand. Both are scoring well, winning legs are basically identical which gives an evens projection, but we need to consider consistency in this one, Rowby's score is at 3.95 which isn't bad, especially for him, but Jim's is practically zero, so that coinflip projection needs taking with a huge pinch of salt.

Huybrechts/Bunting - Another great matchup here which a few years back could easily have been a major quarter final, Kim continuing a resurgence and scoring over 90 a turn, but that's not enough to keep pace with Bunting, who's just that little bit better which ought to translate to around an 8/11 advantage for the former Lakeside champion.

Kleermaker/Jansen - Interesting Dutch derby here between someone who I've tipped to win a Pro Tour soon but hasn't, and someone who I didn't, but has. Scoring isn't too dissimilar, Jansen has the higher scoring but is a bit more inconsistent, they're scoring about the same on losing legs but Danny is a couple of points higher on winning legs, causing the master computer to spit out a line of 4/6 which might be a little too short in reality.

Rafferty/Horvat - Nathan ought to be OK in this one. Steady scoring in the 88 region ought to be enough for Dragutin, who we know can produce some moments of magic, but we've not seen it any time recently, probably the last time being that Superleague final he lost. Probably gets priced up at around 2/5 in favour of Rafferty, I doubt I end up taking a position on this game.

Woodhouse/Lewis - Seems like Luke is getting quite a few tough draws of late, this time up against Adie - and then Clayton if he wins this one. Adie is playing well, scoring well into the 91 range, but Luke is only a couple of points off and this actually projects at 4/5 Lewis, such is the parity between the players. That said, Woodhouse is a touch more inconsistent, so while I imagine the line will be shorter than that on Adie, I doubt this would be an auto play.

Clemens/Engstrom - Gabriel could do with a win here as he's been a little bit on the quiet side, and getting the Nordic qualifier isn't a bad draw in the slightest. We've only got one match worth of data on Johan this season, which is from Austria where he got four legs off Ricky Evans averaging around 90, but Gabriel should be too tough. Hard to project a line. 1/3, maybe 2/7 Clemens?

Sedlacek/Noppert - Final game is a corker, we've gone on about Sedlacek for quite some time now and he's only gone and drawn the newest major champion who with a bit of a run here could get up towards the top 16 on the Pro Tour rankings and avoid having to play the qualifiers and the first round, which'd be a big boost. Karel is good but Danny is just better, call it 4/7 in favour of Noppie?

Bets when I can post them.

Sunday 15 May 2022

Prague day 3

Apologies for yesterday's post being very short and to the point, but I was extremely short on time, and I literally found no plays - it wasn't a case of not looking for them, I did go through every match and couldn't find a single play that I could recommend. We've had a fair few big names drop out - Clayton is maybe the biggest shock of the European Tour so far this season, while Price also going out (naturally there were afters, if you're going to bet on afters in any game, Price against Lewis would usually be a fair shout) has opened up the door for whoever comes through the van Gerwen/Humphries quarter (ironic that the two players left in the event who are scoring the most this season are in the same quarter) to be a strong favourite to take the title, while there's big opportunities for lots of people to go deep. Let's roll:

Rodriguez/van Duijvenbode - Rowby's been in form, and was able to withstand a big fish from Smith to get home and eliminate the Premier League player on a 14+ game winning streak, while Dirk looked strong, especially on finishing, to take out the home favourite in Sedlacek. I'm seeing Rowby with more or less right in between a 40% chance and a one in three shot, so a best line of 2/1 really isn't enticing either way.

de Sousa/Justicia - The Jose derby is under way, Justicia was able to have the game of his life to take out Clayton (who, let's be said, wasn't playing bad, Jose just played well enough to get over the line), while de Sousa looked a bit better than he has of late with a steady 6-2 victory over Kleermaker. Justicia is definitely live in this one, anyone who can beat a Clayton who is playing well should be, I'm seeing nearly a one in three shot, so still a tough ask - the best we can get is the usual Ladbrokes underrating the underdogs compared to other books, but even then 12/5 isn't enticing.

van den Bergh/Humphries - Think this has to be the match of the round, and I don't think it's overly close - Dimitri had a real tough draw in Aspinall in round two, but was able to get the odd break to leave Nathan hoping his home town football team gets the point they need later today to get back in the league (no idea if he actually follows County or not but will give them props), Luke only dropped the one leg against the dangerous Lukeman, could maybe have been a bit closer if Martin hasn't missed the odd dart but he was already three down before he got a shot so always on the back foot. Dimitri's chances look the same as Rowby's to me, but disturbingly the bookies can't separate them. 0.25u Humphries 10/11.

van Gerwen/Mansell - Michael let the foot off the gas a bit against one of the Czech qualifiers to blow my -4.5 punt with MvG being 5-0 up, while Mansell got through a slugfest with Dolan, surviving a match dart to get through. This one shouldn't be close, 5/1 on Mickey looks the correct line, so MvG is really too short to put into an acca or anything.

Cross/Evans - Rob had no issues dealing with van Dongen, while Evans surprisingly had no issues with Ratajski, whitewashing the Pole and only allowing him darts at double in one leg. Oh my. Rob continues to be underrated and projects as a solid favourite and a 1/3 line would be fair. We can actually get 4/9, not quite enough for me to pull the wallet out, but looks to be the best value of the favourites so far if you want to have some additional higher variance plays.

Smith/Chisnall - Ross continues to get some better results after a fairly poor opening to the year, 6-4 over Cullen isn't a bad result, Dave edged out Gurney in a decider in what looks like the match of the round and maybe of the Euro Tour so far just looking at the numbers with both players sustaining 102 and 103 averages across all eleven legs. Appears a fairly tight one on projections, I'm giving Chizzy the 55/45 edge, he comes in as a slightly shorter favourite than that, but with the vig there isn't a play on Smith. If we could get the 7/4 to go with the 4/7 that Dave is priced at in multiple books, I'd probably take the shot on Ross, maybe it is out there but I just can't see it because oddschecker are being lazy again. Maybe I try the exchanges.

Gawlas/Searle - Adam's the last Czech left standing having got the big scalp of Damon Heta in what looked like a bit of a slower scoring than usual and then missed doubles fest just looking at the numbers, Ryan meanwhile was last on yesterday and whitewashed Ritchie Edhouse. Seems like this should be a match too far for Adam, I'd price him at 7/2 ignoring any crowd factors, he's actually a little shorter than that in some places so being able to get 3/10 on Searle at 365 isn't a losing play - just one  where I don't have the confidence margin to place a bet. If anyone's going any longer than 1/3, then definitely consider the shot.

Lewis/van der Voort - Final game, should be a solid one played at a watchable pace. Adie took out Price in what I assume was a bit of a tetchy game, Vincent meanwhile nicked a decider against Schindler, really slamming home the ton-forties and making very few errors on doubles, only real costly error being in the first leg. Adie projects pretty solidly in this one - approaching a two in three favourite, I think there's enough here that I can go 0.25u Lewis 8/11, he's a confidence player and what can give him more confidence than eliminating the number one seed. Real chance for Adie to go deep in this one.

So just the two plays, the Luke one is the best play, the Lewis one has just about enough to recommend, but I wouldn't take the 4/6 that's on Betfair, Ladbrokes etc, it's that marginal. Maybe just go a tenth of a unit at that price if you're restricted on anywhere that's offering better.

Saturday 14 May 2022

Prague day 2 very rapid fire thoughts

Good day one, 4/4, very limited on time today so will just say that there is absolutely NOTHING of value. Every single line looks to be in order. Good god.

Friday 13 May 2022

Prague day 1 evening tips

Going to blast through these, ignoring the Chizzy game because some books having him as short at 1/40 is lol, and also the Gawlas game as I simply don't have data on his opponent:

Hempel/Smith - Both seem a bit out of form, but Florian more so, and Ross has shown signs of turning back up of late. Projecting at just over 70% so 0.25u Smith 4/6

Kleermaker/Bialecki - Seems an incredibly close game, I can barely separate them, maybe Bialecki is a slight dog. Market tends to agree with that assessment.

Henderson/Aspinall - Market's correctly picking Hendo as a big dog in this one, appears a similar sort of margin as the Hempel game. As such, it's moderately close to a Henderson bet, but nobody's quite offering long enough odds, I'd start thinking about it at 9/2, and Ladbrokes, who've shown a tendency to price underdogs a bit long, aren't even at 4/1, and others are shorter.

Evetts/Lewis - Looks like a pretty boring spot on line with Lewis not quite at 1/3, nothing much to say here.

Clemens/Sedlacek - Actually seeing Karel as a small favourite in this one, 55/45, he's priced as a tiny underdog, I'll go small with 0.1u Sedlacek 6/5, I'm not sure how sustainable his form is, but Clemens lost to Edgar midweek so there is that, plus Karel is at home.

VVDV/Nentjes - This is also priced up surprisingly closely, basically the same as the previous game. I've got it slightly tighter, Nentjes with the tiny edge, he is off the back of a tournament win as well, but there's not quite enough to justify taking 13/10.

Back later this evening for round two.

Prague day 1 afternoon tips

Not going to be much here, they've loaded most of the domestic qualifiers that I know absolutely nothing about into this session with unbackable odds, similarly with one of the associate qualifiers, which only really leaves four games to look at. Still:

0.25u Rodriguez 8/11 v Waites, Scott hasn't been playing to the level that Rowby has since regaining his card, the Austrian seems to pop up quite a lot on the list of players to consider, and the projection gives him, give or take a tenth of a percent, a two out of three chance of winning. 8/11 is easily enough to bet.

0.1u Mansell 5/4, this does seem fairly close, but I've got Mickey as having the edge the other way around. That's enough of a swing to make it a play, it is a little bit of a concern that Mickey got pummelled last time out (although there wasn't much he could do about it) and that Jeffrey looks to have climbed off the complete bottom of his form, but it's still worth the play. I'm toning it down from a quarter unit to a smaller play though.

van Dongen/Claydon seems similarly tight, maybe Jules has a bit more of a shot than the market suggests, but I've only got him ahead of Brett by a couple of percent, and I think there's possibly a bit of a lack of data on both, so will pass 11/8.

Rock/Evans game looks priced accurately enough. Projections maybe give Josh a slightly better chance than the market indicates, but it's not enough to bet and Ricky's playing OK, so I can easily pass that one.

Wednesday 11 May 2022

PC 14/15

These were a couple of weird events. Basically the entire Premier League didn't enter, so the opportunities for each way gambling looked huge - didn't really work out like that with Smith binking both days, a couple of players (Joyce, O'Shea) that you wouldn't really have fancied, which just left Heta, Chisnall, Rydz and Soutar to go for - and apart from Heta, then possibly Rydz, I'm not sure you're going to be picking the others out. Still, I did at least get Heta, so something was rebuilt after a pretty bad ET5 which dropped me right back to break even for the year. We can go again in Prague this weekend, but for now, let's update the FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Jonny Clayton
7 Rob Cross
8 Gary Anderson
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Ryan Searle
12 Joe Cullen
13 Luke Humphries
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Nathan Aspinall
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Damon Heta
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

There are no changes - van Gerwen had closed right up to Smith, but he's pulled back away again. Dimitri's final last weekend gives himself a bit of breathing room. Humphries is very close to Cullen and a better weekend could well see him up a place. Lower down, O'Shea's final yesterday puts him just a couple of spots outside of the to 100, Josh Rock is already in there, Gilding's continued accumulation has put him up into the top 90, Sedlacek's up to the top 80 ahead of his home event, while it looks like Devon Petersen is out of the top 30 for the first time in some time. As is Whitlock, for the first time in even longer I would say. Possibly since he joined the PDC.

Luke Littler is some talent, isn't he? He looks a better prospect than Leighton Bennett did around 3 years ago. Already securing the gold-ranked Welsh Open to book a return to the WDF worlds, I think it's only a matter of time before he gets a card. Timing could be unfortunate though, he'd turn 16 just after when I assume Q-School will run, so while he'd be able to have a good run at the Development Tour in 2023, Challenge Tour would be off the table, which would be a real shame. I suppose you've got to cut things off at some point, and holding back on going completely ham on the darts circuit while he completes his up to 16 education can't necessarily be a bad move.

So we head into Prague. There's quite a few things I'm interested in looking at on this one:

- Who's going to qualify? Sedlacek and Gawlas have got the automatic spots from their rankings, but it's a bit of a wildcard after that. Roman Benecky I guess would start as one of the favourites, possibly along with Tomas Houdek whose name I've seen spring up on the secondary tours a few times, but they're 6 and 7 on the FDI Czech rankings respectively, so can we really say that?

- We've got a lot of good young talent in this one. Rock is in there. Bialecki won the Eastern Europe qualifier. Nentjes won one Development Tour and made a final of another last weekend and he's in the hat, as are slightly older names in Schindler, Rowby and Evetts.

- We have some extremely spicy potential last 16 matches. van Gerwen against Clayton jumps off the page, DvdB against Heta ought to be good, Cross/Humphries similarly, then you've got some evenly matched games like van Duijvenbode against Cullen, heck, can we even chuck in Wright against Ratajski? de Sousa and Gurney?

- There's quite a few names that are in the first round who are right in the Matchplay mix, who getting a decent draw would see them try to solidify a place. Lukeman's had another board win the last couple of days and will want to get more money on the board. van der Voort's actually a little bit of a way out and could use the cash. Josh Rock is creeping up and stands a decent chance, he's within 10k of the last spot right now so a couple of good runs and he's right in there and accumulating more than most of the players in this race. Ricky Evans plays and is in now but only at spot 15, Ross Smith's the second man out as opposed to Evans' penultimate man in, that'd be some tie with their respective form (although Ross did hit a nine and have an OK run yesterday, so maybe that's turning a bit). Adrian Lewis isn't guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination, he is only 1k above Evans. Final name I'll chuck in is Ritchie Edhouse, he's not too far behind all of these.

We don't have any secondary tour action until next month and the WDF similarly doesn't have anything until June, with the Swiss Open being rated high enough to count to my stats before the Dutch Open the weekend afterwards, with no PDC events that weekend and a Pro Tour double header in Germany afterwards, I think we might see quite a few of the big affiliate names that play both sides spending some time in Europe soon.

I'll be back tomorrow with Prague tips, it will likely be fairly late on Thursday - I'll have thoughts as a minimum, if lines aren't there yet, I'll fill in the tips with a quick post on break from work about an hour before post.

Sunday 8 May 2022

Some rebuilding done. Quarters?

Firstly, some interesting matchups in the Welsh Open/Classic weekend, Luke Littler vs Wes Newton is a classic battle of the ages in the Open, although with Wes only being 44 that may be a bit harsh. Has been around forever so I think you get what I'm saying. Classic features Graham Hall (I assume it's the same one who had a nice UK Open run as a qualifier) against someone I don't know. Ladies open features Sherrock vs Greaves which could be interesting. But for Leverkusen, we've got quarter finals coming up in less than an hour, Ryan Searle clawed us some cash back despite Chisnall not missing treble 20 at all for three legs, thankfully remembering how to do so in the decider, MvG was a missed spot and he's now got to be pretty short for the whole thing, let's see:

Aspinall/Humphries - Priced up rather tight with Luke having the slight edge. I think this is a play, Luke is right up there with the best players in the world right now, and I'm projecting at near two in three win shots. Nathan's a bit more consistent, so maybe bring that down a point or two, but with the price offered on Coralbrokes, we can't go wrong, 0.25u Humphries 17/20, probably good up to 8/11.

van Duijvenbode/van Gerwen - Michael dropped off a bit from the first game, but it was always going to be hard to maintain that level, and he comes in as a bit shorter than a two in three favourite against Dirk, who put in a signature performance of his own. Reads as 65/45 to me. 11/5 on Dirk isn't quite long enough, but van Gerwen isn't backable at that short of a price.

Rock/van den Bergh - Opportunity for Josh, who made easy work of Williams, to make a real statement and completely ruin his value, he'll play Dimitri who put what now seems a routine 105 average in against Schindler. Maybe the crowd remains against him? Model prefers Rock nearly 60/40, maybe draw it back a few points through consistency, and he's available at odds against. We'll take that, 0.25u Rock 7/5 on Unibet and Betfred, probably alright to go up to maybe 5/4.

Wade/Searle - This is not a tricky one to call. Ryan has been playing significantly better in more or less all aspects of the game and should be a favourite, I see 60/40. He isn't, he's odds against in multiple places. 0.25u Searle 11/10

Doubt I post before the semis.

Day 2 = dumpster fire. Day 3 - better?

Good god, apart from smashing Fulham, nothing went right yesterday. There's two main risks when you go with a long shot in this game - either your guy doesn't turn up and can't win, or the other guy plays towards the top end of their game, and you can't win. That happened every time. Even in the one that was priced fairly close, Gilding didn't play bad apart from a couple of missed doubles, but Brendan averaged 103 (albeit that is inflated by winning four legs in 13 darts and another in 14 - if those are all last dart in hand he averages a much more reasonable 94). Kuivenhoven, Menzies didn't show, Wade was unplayable, Petersen didn't show, Sedlacek missed doubles, Rowby was ok but didn't quite score heavy enough and Clayton kept him at arms length. Fortunately these were all (Gilding aside) small plays, so the relative bankroll damage is minor and we are only down half a unit from where we were at the start of play. Last 16 quickly:

Price/Aspinall - Marked up fairly close, getting 4/6 on Price against a non-PL player seems a rarity, but it is what it is. Liking Nathan's work, but if anything the value is on Gerwyn, who I've got at 65%, which isn't enough for a play, but it's close.

Humphries/Dolan - Kind of a similar price here, Luke's a tick or so shorter, but 2-3 percentage points less likely to win than Gerwyn is. Odd that. The line's close enough that neither player looks like even a break even bet given the vig, Dolan needs 40% and I have 37%, Humphries needs 64% and I have 63%. No thanks.

Cullen/van Duijvenbode - I can't split them. They are adjacent to each other on my scoring charts. Maybe Dirk has the slight edge with ever so slightly better consistency, slightly contradictory to the market giving Cullen the tiny edge, but it's all close enough that there's nothing to go with here.

van Gerwen/Clayton - God I want to bet MvG after yesterday's performance. 113 average (after going 2-0 down and averaging under a ton at the time), four four visit kills, top of my rankings, and he's only 4/5. This is really, really close to a bet, I see it 61/39 MvG, but I get the sense that my model's underrating Clayton slightly, so I think that's just enough to dissuade me from taking the bet. If it was 10/11 I'd probably go with it, it's that close, those extra couple of percent would make the difference to me.

Williams/Rock - Ooh, this is going to be a fun one to call after Scott got the big upset (without playing all that well), Rock took out Ratajski and comes in at shorter than 1/2. Which is fair, I've got Rock smack bang in the middle of 70% and 75%. Big chance for both.

van den Bergh/Schindler - Crowd is getting on Martin's side a bit, which might account for the market being as tight as it is, with us not even being able to get 6/4 on the German, and normally not close. Or maybe it's the market recognising he is good, I see it 53/47, so no bet.

de Sousa/Wade - Jose forced to a decider by Dennis Nilsson. Weird game, Dennis was nowhere in the legs that he lost so there was a huge average disparity. Wade looked good and enters as about a 60/40 favourite, I think that's slightly too favourable as I've got the Portuguese ace up at 46%, but as we can only get 11/8 in comparison to Wade's 4/6, and given their respective opening performances, I can pass this one.

Searle/Chisnall - Dave took out the dangerous Heta with a fine showing, Searle wasn't really troubled by Kcuik, lines are close with Ryan having the marginal edge. This seems a bit wider to me, I have Ryan at over 60%, so we're in basically the same situation as the van Gerwen game in terms of line offered and match edge. I don't see any consistency issues (both are a bit high, Dave is higher) and I don't have any feeling that Dave is being underrated, so 0.25u Searle 4/5 for just the one play of the day.

I should be back for the quarters.

Saturday 7 May 2022

ET5 round 2 evening

OK, let's go to the evening:

Humphries/Penhall - Can't really recommend a play here. Darren has looked competent, but with limited data it's hard to say if there's any value when we can't even get 4/1. Against a player of Luke's calibre I'm inclined to say no.

Aspinall/Sedlacek - Karel getting another bye, nice, Nathan is a tricky task though and the Czech is floating at around a 30% shot in the market, I think he's close enough to Aspinall that it's worth a sneaky small flier on 365, 0.1u Sedlacek 12/5, 2022 data thinks this is more like low-mid 40% range for Karel so greater than 2/1 looks good.

Price/Woodhouse - Wow, how good did Luke look yesterday? Completely shut out my Mansell bet, can he sustain it against Gerwyn? That's always been the issue. Looks a 75/25 to me on 2022 data, we can get a bit longer than 3/1 on Luke, it's not enough for me to recommend a play, but if you think Woodhouse can sustain yesterday's level of play, I'm not going to stop you.

van Gerwen/Gurney - Daryl was in a bit of a fight with Kevin Burness that went with throw until the decider where he broke, that's not the confidence building game you want when coming up against one of the best players in the world. I can only see just above 20% chances for Daryl in this one, Michael's back to playing really well, 2/7 looks just fine to me.

Wright/Williams - Scott was pressured in a high quality game against Adam Gawlas, and make no mistake, if he plays like that today he absolutely can give Peter some problems. I think he's got maybe a bit more than a one in four chance, 4/1 is not quite enough, we've got enough long priced fliers that look value (I see that Menzies has already been backed in from where we took him) without desperately trying to manufacture another one.

Clayton/Rodriguez - Rowby's game with Kurz was a little sloppy, plenty of missed doubles etc, not what you want to be showing when coming up against one of the world's elite. 5/1 (Unibet) is way too long, we're taking that, 0.1u Rodriguez 5/1, 9/2 generally available also good. Projections say one in three, which may be a little high, but even if we said one in four which doesn't sound that outlandish, you're still well above the 17% you need to break even. Worth the punt.

Cross/Schindler - Martin gets to go up against Rob after taking out Edhouse in a game which feels like it might have been closer if Ritchie could hit doubles, the line here feels about right, Rob's good enough that he should win this somewhere between 60% and 65% of the time, so generally available 8/13 seems on the money.

Heta/Chisnall - Good one to finish, Damon's up there with the world's elite while Chizzy beat Clemens but certainly wasn't at his best, which you feel he'll need to be tonight. Looks about 65/35 in favour of Heta, can't really get better than 4/6 which isn't quite enough to recommend a play.

Will almost certainly be back on very short notice for round three.

ET5 round 2 afternoon

Will put up the evening in a separate post as time is of the essence

Ratajski/Rock - Has all value now gone? Rock is only 13/10, then again Ratajski has been quiet but still doing OK statistically. Ratajski's got the higher scoring overall but Rock projects to win, mainly due to a sizable consistency difference. Will pass it, but could be proven wrong.

de Sousa/Nilsson - Dennis played well yesterday, Jose hasn't looked his best for some time. Is it worth a flier? 9/2 is tempting but I will say no.

van Duijvenbode/Kuivenhoven - Christ, Maik tried his best to fuck that one up, but got home for us, he's nearly 3/1 which I'm going to take a small shot at, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 14/5, there is a big consistency problem which means that the 40% I'm seeing isn't a true figure, but I think it's still just about enough value. Dirk probably just says no and averages 105 having said that.

Dolan/Gilding - 60/40 in favour of Brendan you say? Flip I say. They're right next to each other on the scoring, Gilding hitting significantly more legs in four visits, Dolan a bit more in five. 0.25u Gilding 6/4

Searle/Kciuk - Bit messy from Krzysztof yesterday but it was enough to get by, going to have to tighten that up against Ryan, who's a big favourite and rightly so. 1/4 is almost value actually.

van den Bergh/Menzies - Cameron hit some nice big outs as White's struggles to get results continue, Dimitri's been a bit quiet and could be there for the taking, it's a pretty big favourites price which I think should be nearer 2/1 Menzies rather than the 0.1u Menzies 16/5 we can get on Coral/Ladbrokes. Got to take it there though, anything shorter than about 11/4 ceases to be value.

Wade/van Peer - Think I'm going to keep tipping Berry until he really lets us down, doubling was a bit sloppy from both yesterday and he's going to have to be on his game to beat Wade in current form, but once again Ladbrokes are overestimating the favourites. 0.1u van Peer 19/4, I'm seeing over one in three chances, which isn't affected by consistency as you might think - Wade actually has the worse score in 2022.

Cullen/Petersen - Damn, Doets let us down after getting the initial break back and then getting the break needed to throw for the match. Cullen I don't think is as much of a step up as people think and I'm seeing Devon as around a 35% chance, so I think once again Ladbrokes are offering up too good a price to decline, 0.1u Petersen 16/5

Thursday 5 May 2022

ET5 - quick first round hits

Going to barrel through all of these extremely quickly:

Mansell/Woodhouse - Tough to call, Mansell seems slightly in form, Luke not so much, small edge is there, 0.1u Mansell 11/10

Penhall/Peters - Darren making some moves after doing nothing with his card, Luc's been quiet after getting his, market says flip, don't disagree

Sedlacek/not Baggish - Thought they'd solved this bye issue?

Nilsson/Lukeman - Martin in red hot form, Dennis likely can't compete, odds reflect it fine

Rock/Scutt - Spicy as hell, Rock amazing, Scott started well in PDC but quiet since, wild variety of prices so will take 0.25u Rock 8/15 on 365, Ladbrokes have the line right at 4/11

Gawlas/Williams - Adam up and down, Scott just getting work done, bookies have it close, I think Scott's maybe 55/45, so will take 0.25u Williams 23/20 on Laddies

Kcuik/Barry - Kcuik pretty dangerous, Keane more so, generally Barry more than two in three seems weighted too much, but it's actually right

Gilding/Wenig - Andrew hugely underrated, Lukas possibly the opposite, albeit slightly, not being able to get more than 2/5 on Gilding appears reasonable

Petersen/Doets - Devon not been good for a while, Kevin been consistently better for a while, looks 60/40, market disagrees, 0.25u Doets evs

Bunting/Kuivenhoven - Stephen with good run last weekend, Maik not been playing bad but with a quiet start to 2022, Maik inconsistent but this feels closer than the line so small flier despite liking Bunting's work this year, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 9/4

Gurney/Burness - Irish derby time, Daryl's regaining form, Kevin somewhat of the same, data says Burness might be a bit closer but that seems like a sample size thing, but wouldn't rush to lump on Daryl at the prices offered

van Peer/Wattimena - Berry maybe playing the best he's done in a long time, Jermaine not playing overly badly, better than his nadir but not at his pushing the top 16 peak, seems flippy with Jermaine having a small edge so nothing doing here

Menzies/White - Cameron showing some flashes in 2022, Ian coming back after a shocker last time out, books feeling around 60/40 which appears pretty much bang on

Schindler/Edhouse - Martin still in our darting circle of trust but value declining, Ritchie either very good and can compete at this level but lots of bad legs, general not quite 2/1 line on Edhouse is not tempting enough

Rodriguez/Kurz - Rowby having a very good run of form, Nico been a bit out of action and not really sure where he's at, 4/7 isn't quite enough on the Austrian to put away name value considerations

Chisnall/Clemens - Best saved for last, this would be a great last sixteen matchup, lines look accurate.

Monday 2 May 2022

van Gerwen back in the winners' circle

Great tournament from Michael. Probably peaked in that steamrollering of Dirk, but impressive throughout none the less. Noppert deserves the plaudits as well, maybe just ran out of steam in the evening session. Good run from Evans to climb into the Matchplay provisional spots as things stand, definitely one that we need to keep an eye on, although he won't be in Leverkusen which is going to come round quickly this week, but he will be in Prague the week after. This is a huge month for the Matchplay race, for now, let's show updated FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Jonny Clayton
7 Rob Cross
8 Gary Anderson
9 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
10 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
11 Ryan Searle
12 Joe Cullen
13 Luke Humphries
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Nathan Aspinall
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Damon Heta
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz (NEW)

Rydz, just by being a seed and winning his opening match, pips King to 20th, although with Bunting having a good run, he's closed the gap and made it a bit of a three horse race with a good gap to Chisnall ahead. Noppert only just gets past de Sousa by less than 100 points, but will continue to climb with this Euro Tour run, Ando's only about 5k ahead and will surely drop to #10 by the end of the month. While van Gerwen was fifth at the start of the year, he's now much closer to Smith (down 36k) than he is to Wade (up 45k) so is closing the gap. Heck, a couple more Euro Tour finals and he's basically there even if he splits them if Smith doesn't respond.

Weekly Dartscast asks an interesting question of the week in is MvG now favourite for the Matchplay. The answer is a tricky one. He is scoring more than anyone in 2022, but not by a massive amount - he's at a mid 95 point. Anderson and Heta are low 95, Wright's high 94, Humphries mid 94, Cross and Searle are low 94, then there's another six players at 93. So he's not ahead by that much, and the crux of the matter is that barring a complete loss of form and Smith or Wade going ham, he is going to be the #3 seed. This means he is, assuming the seedings go their way, he is going to have to get through both of Price and Wright in some order - whichever of those is number 1 will need to beat just one of them. That's enough of a knockdown to make whoever ends up as the #1 seed probably favoured - although they won't have an easy path to the semis as projected, with Searle #16 right now (Humphries just behind and van Duijvenbode just ahead isn't going to give you an easier match if things shift) and Clayton/van den Bergh on a little bit of an island at #8/#9, although I can easily see de Sousa slipping back, he's less than a Euro Tour win away from Clayton. It's going to be an interesting tournament and it will be wide open.

Sunday 1 May 2022

ET4 quarters

Congrats to James Richardson for nicking a close decider against Klaasen to bink the secondary Danish event just now, in terms of Austria, Bunting was in a close one as expected but got home with the odd break, Jansen not so much. Elsewhere there were a lot of one sided games, mostly going the way we expected outside of Noppert over Clayton maybe, but Wade forced MvG to a decider and Clemens did the same to Cross, so we're down to Noppert/Cullen, Evans/Aspinall, van Duijvenbode/van Gerwen and Cross/Bunting. Do we like any bets?

Well, there's nowt in the first game. I can't split them and the bookies can't either, only one book's making any sort of call and that's marginally in the favour of Cullen, their winning legs are basically identical with Cullen getting slightly more four visit kills compared to six, but Cullen's got a point of advantage in losing legs, so moving on.

Evans/Aspinall looks about the same, no bet here. I see a bit over two in three chances for Nathan, not quite 70%, and we're generally being chucked 4/9, 2/5 types of lines. Ricky's got his chances but Nathan is that bit stronger.

DvD/MvG should be a lot of fun, but we're getting the same sorts of lines as above, maybe MvG being a bit shorter with lines floating on the short side of 2/5 rather than the long side. This is maybe slightly short, I've got van Duijvenbode as winning slightly more than one time in three, but we can only get 2/1. 3% worth of edge isn't quite the sort of margin that I'm looking for.

Then there's a second all-English match. Again, this looks like a correct line. This was the last game to be finalised so some bookies are being tardy, but where I am seeing a line it's putting Cross at about 4/6 where I see him having a 59% shot at winning it.

So I won't be back after the quarters, as they all look pretty much spot on, unless they're miraculously misestimating both players in a match (which I doubt, we only found one bet in round two after all), then the semi final lines are likely to be correct. Will have new rankings back later this evening.

ET4 day 3

Before ET4, congrats to Lisa Ashton and Trina Gulliver (didn't expect the latter, that's for sure) for getting the cake in the Women's Series, along with Laura Turner for back to back finals, also to Sebastian Bialecki for winning the Denmark Open, should also give props to Darren Johnson for going deep there as well. In Austria, there were a few odd results, Evans we thought maybe had a chance, and he did punish some slightly off finishing from Heta, while Lerchbacher over Searle is not one I saw coming. Other than that, Razma over de Sousa is an upset of sorts but the former's playing well and the latter's a bit off his best, chuck in 3/17 on doubles and that result happens, also Danny Jansen turning over Luke Humphries is a surprise, even taking into account Jansen has a tour title this year, Luke did literally win one of these things last time up and this is a statement victory - especially with the scoreline, while Danny beat some good players to win his title, a lot of them were deciding legs, so 6-2 is eye opening. Eight games today, let's go straight into it:

Rydz/Bunting - Callan took advantage of Wright missing a few key doubles, while Bunting wasn't really troubled against Smith, one quick leg and some good finishing aside. The market can't split them, I think Bunting's maybe got slightly the better chances, scoring a point per turn better this season and projecting at near 60%. I think it's worth the shot as a result, 0.25u Bunting evs

Jansen/Evans - Plenty would have been looking at this as Searle/Heta, but we get neither, and it is another one that the market cannot decide between. I see this as fairly similar to the last one, Danny's a point a turn better than Ricky is, and has the confidence of a tour win this year - while Ricky again fell short on his chance. 0.25u Jansen evs

Noppert/Clayton - Two major winners collide, Danny with a formidable average against Dimitri where he had no legs off whatsoever, while Clayton was in a bit of a scrappy tussle with de Zwaan, but both are here now and Clayton rates as a bit more than a 60% favourite in the market. I've got it as ever so slightly tighter than that, but it's not enough to make me consider Danny, as always I'll preface that Jonny has done his best work in unranked exbos so maybe he's underrated in my system as a result, just two or three percentage points will make the line perfect for all intents and purposes.

Clemens/Cross - Another missed double exploit here for Gabriel, Brendan missed his chances and Gabriel didn't, while Rob was pretty good in not allowing our sole tip of yesterday many chances of doubles at all, ton average is never anything to sniff at. Market has Rob as a bit more than a two in three favourite, which feels right instinctively, I've got it at just over 70% so that seems fair enough.

Cullen/Ratajski - Krzysztof swept Gosnak as you might have expected to happen, Cullen meanwhile was forced to 4-4 by Jim Williams in a game that looks like it was better quality than the numbers project. Cullen's a marginal favourite in the market and I thought he might have opened shorter, I've got it as pretty much a flip with Ratajski being the one ever so slightly above 50%. Is 13/10 enough of a price to go with it? Maybe not quite, while Krzysztof played well yesterday he wasn't really tested and an Austrian qualifier to a Premier League player is one hell of a shift, so he could get caught out. Maybe.

Razma/Aspinall - Madars as we mentioned took de Sousa out, Aspinall we've not mentioned yet, he kicked away in the mid stages of his match against Plaisier and finished a comfortable victor, despite not putting up amazing numbers outside of doubling, so maybe the scoring was a bit lacking. Nathan is a very short favourite here at 2/5, but hey, I think it's justified. I have said he's been playing well for about half a year now, and I've got him winning at least two in three, so it seems fair enough.

van Gerwen/Wade - MvG didn't look fantastic against Menzies, but got home 6-3, while Wade looked really, really good in a win over Brett Claydon, this straight off the back of a Premier League night win where he beat Michael. As such, 6/4 isn't necessarily what I'd have expected to see for a line on Wade, I've only got him at 35% but it looks like he's in a little bit of a purple patch right now, so easily avoiding it.

Lerchbacher/van Duijvenbode - Final game, Zoran as we mentioned got into a big lead early against Searle and held his nerve to make the final day for what I believe to be the first time, while Dirk was made to work against Rowby who missed darts in multiple legs, which could have easily made the result very different. Dirk projects at three in four wins, he's 1/3. No value here.

So just the two picks, these tips look nothing like in running order, I've just gone off of what oddschecker was listing, but that's what I'm going for.