Matchplay final

Didn't say much about the semis, mainly because the data would likely be unreliable, also mainly because I didn't have the time to get everything into the database on the Friday night, but I doubt anything of value was lost. Anyway, we've got a Littler/Price final, which is one of the closer things we could get to not being fucking awful like the Littler semi was, and Littler's now actually played enough legs since April to get a stat. And he rates over that period to win 100% of the time. Well, 99.77%. But that's close enough. The since January mid range data is nearer 81% than 80% and the full data set gives us 78% for Littler, so if we chuck out that short data as being unreliable, that's putting Luke at around a 4-1 favourite level. Am I going to take Price at longer than 8 on the exchange? Hell no. Anyway, that'll do it for this event, there's been a gold WDF event down under that I need to shove into the database, before we all rush off to Germany for a couple of Pro Tours. And when I say all, I mean the 112 card holders that could be arsed with it.

Matchplay quarters

First things first, let's all hope Cameron's alright. It seems from what the PDC posted is that he's OK, so that's good to hear. We've had some great stuff, punts went fantastically, so let's look at the quarters.

van Duijvenbode/Anderson - 33/31/33/32

Littler/Rock - NA/91/86/89

Smith/Price - 52/28/28/36

van Veen/Wade - 32/62/71/55

Oh my god what an absolute shitshow those projections are. The only one that is remotely consistent is the Dirk game, and it's kind of concerning with that "after 12 legs I get bored" interview thing. Unless he was just taking the piss, which is possible. Then again, we're getting to an extended game, and while we've seen Anderson is still capable of handling it, it's not a given. Littler won't have a short data set until the final, but he's projected to absolutely kick the shit out of Rock, which is fine as he should kick the shit out of everyone, but this level of favouritism is kind of wow. The Price one is kind of a repeat, his short data is limited but not great, while the van Veen one is also a bit of a repeat, in that his latter form has not been pretty, but taking out Nijman as he did is certainly promising. That'll do us until the semis.

Matchplay round two

Well that went mostly as expected. Thought that the vast majority of seeds would get through, and called this out on Reddit (and got downvoted by the commies there for piling shit on unranked events but who cares), and that's basically what happened. Dirk over Dobey was a tad fortunate, but I bet on it, and it was something we considered. Cross over Noppert, well that's the only one we actually projected the seed to lose, I still bet Noppert as he seemed undervalued at the actual price, it didn't work (but overall punts have been decent enough), that's fine. Then Cameron Menzies.

Cameron Menzies.

What in the living fuck happened there? And to finish it with a 170 of all things? Well that was something that happened and probably gifts Littler the title, but let's not piss on the tournament as it's not been that bad, and let's just jump into the projections.

Littler/Aspinall - NA/77/79/78

Rock/Bunting - 46/56/51/51

van Gerwen/van Duijvenbode - 61/52/53/55

Clayton/Anderson - 35/26/34/32

Menzies/Smith - 40/32/35/36

Price/Cross - 50/80/79/70

van Veen/Nijman - 29/46/55/43

Wade/Searle - 58/45/43/49

Main thought - oh my god what an absolute form differential in the Price match (and, to a lesser extent, the van Veen one). That said, we can see from the previous post that his sample size was basically an absolute minimum, and that didn't help by playing like complete arse today and only still being in the tournament because Schindler completely fell apart, but it is what it is. I don't see anything hugely controversial here, and as value was kind of to a minimum in round one, I'm thinking we won't see much of anything these next two days either. But we'll see.

Matchplay preview

Alright, we're coming in to the second major of the year, I'll post up all the stats, then give each round one match a quick run down along with the overall projection.

Littler 91-9 Springer - Yes, that is right. Luke has no data whatsoever in my data since just after the UK Open. That's just how much of a shit he gives about the bog standard events. Is this a problem? No, if you can make a cool million in one event, then I probably wouldn't show either, although he could probably do with turning up to at least some Pro Tours soon as he has a grand total of zero prize money in them so is currently out of Minehead. Springer is kind of still living on that Euro Tour he won at the back end of last season which will still make the cutoff for the Grand Prix, although he's the last man in right now. He's got a lot more hit and miss and this one isn't hard to call.

Aspinall 71-29 Cullen - Wow at those consistency stats from Nathan. That's not pretty, although at least we have some sort of idea why, if he's not clicking he just really isn't clicking, but when he's on he's great, Euro Tours don't win themselves. Joe's doing alright and deserves to be here, but this is really about whether Aspinall shows up. If he does, Cullen will be outclassed, if not, then he's definitely in with a shot.

Rock 55-45 Woodhouse - Josh seems to be fading a bit in 2026, yes he's binked a Euro Tour, but so has Woodhouse, and the numerical trends really don't lie, Luke's stayed more or less in the same ballpark while Rock's fallen more to his level. There's pressure on Josh to do something on TV, and the #1 Pro Tour player, at least in terms of earnings if not quality, isn't really the draw you want, and with Woodhouse having got over the no title thing, he's going to be pretty confident and this is almost a free hit.

Bunting 63-37 Zonneveld - Stephen seems to have had a quiet 2026, he's had just the one tour final where he got smoked by Dobey, and the since January numbers are down a fair bit. Since April they look better which is reassuring, but this is a tricky tie. Niels is continuing to progress, but is yet to win a title and is here for the first time. That ought not to faze him but it is an unknown factor, and can't be discounted. That said, he's shown his ability to hang with the best and this isn't the worst draw he could have got.

van Gerwen 70-30 Gilding - Michael's had a bit of a lighter schedule than some here, but nowhere near as light as others, and while he's not at his mercurial best, he's nowhere near as far off it as many think, as we see a rematch of when Andrew took his major title. Gilding's as steady as they come, has got a title this year, and while he is a clear underdog, he certainly knows how to beat van Gerwen on a big stage and stylistically doesn't seem like the best matchup for him, and he does have back to back quarter finals here, so who knows?

Dobey 57-43 van Duijvenbode - This one ought to be good. Chris has probably become a bit underrated despite having picked up another two floor titles this season, mainly because he's really yet to push on at another level, despite having won a TV title, having been in the Premier League and deep worlds runs, he's still looking for a Euro Tour or major title. Of course, so is Dirk, who also seems underrated, although that's more that whenever he seems to be in good form, recurrent injuries put him on the back foot. Performances are surpassing results for sure, and he's one of the Pro Tour opponents that seeds who know what they're doing would have wanted to avoid.

Clayton 56-44 Heta - Jonny continues to put up strong play despite now being solidly the wrong side of fifty, it's not turned into titles this season but remains an extremely steady competitor and someone who's not going to give anyone an easy game. Damon was surprisingly one of the last players in, the numbers have been steady and not dropped too much from his peak where he was a top ten player, the consistency figure over the most recent sample is really strong and points to being a tad unlucky of late, so certainly cannot be written off in this one which rates to be one of the tighter round one matchups.

Anderson 86-14 Joyce - Gary remains one of the strongest players on the planet, although may be having a bit of a quieter 2026 just looking at the figures, but still should have more than enough to handle Joyce, who's one of those players that gets better results than his numbers suggest, primarily on account of being excellent on the outer ring, especially in the bottom left corner. That said, it is not going to be anywhere near enough to bridge the gulf in class between these two, Ryan's one of the weaker players in the event whichever way you look at it and Anderson will I'm sure be very happy with this draw.

Humphries 84-16 Menzies - Luke's another who's picking and choosing when and where he plays, but remains a clear second best player in the world, taking titles at both the Pro Tour and Euro Tour level and being a dangerous opponent for anyone on the planet. That is not a good sign for Cammy, who has maybe the highest gap between their best and worst game of anyone in the field, and even if he is on it, this one might be very one sided. If not, this could become not pretty in a hurry.

Smith 53-47 Doets - Former major winner Smith continues to look darned good, claiming two Pro Tours and a first Euro Tour in his fifth final this season, solidifying a place in the top sixteen to get seeded, combining solid finishing with one of the highest 180 rates on the circuit. But this is not an easy draw in the slightest, Kevin has shown flashes on TV before, particularly at the worlds, and picked his game up well in 2026 to get here for the first time, getting a first tour title, a first Euro Tour final, and being well into the double digits for quarter final or better appearances. Ought to be one of the highlight ties of the rounds, that's just how well Doets is playing right now.

Price 81-19 Schindler - Gerwyn is another player I'm going to describe as underrated - hasn't done a great deal in the last few months since claiming another Euro Tour event, but the numbers do not lie and he remains one of the players that if he is in a tournament, he has a legitimate chance to win it. This is not a bad draw, Martin is not regressing in terms of numbers just looking at the comparisons above, but it feels like he is, not seeded like last year, not really being close to claiming more titles, and he is not qualified for Leicester as of right now, although he should stay high enough to have the opportunities to correct that. This draw certainly doesn't help though.

Noppert 45-55 Cross - Danny's a former major winner and one of the most consistent players on the circuit, however the numbers are tailing off ever so slightly, which is not really a good sign against Cross, who is a former winner here, and picking up form at the right time - the numbers are trending upwards, picking up a Pro Tour and reaching a Euro Tour final just last month, and an in form Cross certainly has the quality to defeat an any form Noppert. Danny's certainly not going to make it easy and rarely if ever has a bad game, but this might be one of the better first round matches with the real chance of a seeding upset, if not an actual upset.

van Veen 62-38 Ratajski - Oh boy, here's one which is very much form based. van Veen, going into the end of 2025, was without doubt one of the strongest players in the world. You don't get to a world final by chance (well, there's been some who were lucky), but since then the form has got worse and worse. Obviously he needed to pull out of a couple of Premier League dates, but I can't think that makes him that far off his best, numbers since April seeing an alarmingly low scoring number with inconsistency through the roof. As such, a matchup against Ratajski, who might be back very close to his best and a winner of another Euro Tour literally two days ago (where he beat van Veen pretty comfortably) could be one of the worst matchups he could get. Krzsyztof is absolutely live in this one.

Nijman 79-21 Chisnall - Wessel seems to be winning pretty much everything he enters, picking up two Euro Tours, six Pro Tours and entering the top sixteen in the world (and much, much higher in the FRH rankings where only the two Lukes and van Veen are above him). The scoring is extremely strong, the confidence must be sky high, now is surely the time to take the form to TV. And he couldn't wish for a better first round opponent - Dave barely scraped into the event, and the numbers he is putting up are the worst of anyone in the event. Even the consistency numbers favour Nijman, which is probably the only reason we're not seeing an even more one sided projection, this feels like a top four game in terms of one sidedness but it actually isn't.

Wade 62-38 Wattimena - James has a really strong record here, being a defending finalist and definitely favouring leg play, previously being a winner of this event and he did add another title on the floor this year, albeit right at the start of the season. The numbers look best in current form, but he has an oddly high consistency number, so might be a bit more swingy than normal. Jermaine's off the back of a first Euro Tour final, and a brace of long awaited titles at the back end of 2025 was a key breakthrough, although the performances were much better for quite some time before that. He's not too far off Wade, but does appear a fairly obvious second best in this one, although not without chances.

Searle 64-36 O'Connor - Ryan has not pushed on quite as much as I thought he might have done after his worlds run. He has got a Pro Tour win, as he seems a lock to get one more or less every year, but spurned another Euro Tour chance, and remains very hit and miss. The same can be said for William, who perhaps surprisingly is here for the first time, and is just that little bit lower in terms of everything than Ryan is, he got to another tour final this year but didn't convert, and he's not got a huge amount results wise outside of that. Of course, with two players who can be up and down, anything can happen, but Ryan is correctly favoured here.

I'll obviously use the round one data to project further, so don't expect anything more until after the World Cup final, but this should give you what you need to make your own mind up on everything.

Leverkusen quarters

Well, that extra time basically killed me, although if this afternoon session was anything like yesterday that's probably for the best, although looking at the actual results, given that we typically like to punt on Dirk, Aspinall and Ratajski, maybe we'd have hit on something. Got to imagine the model would have thrown up Wattimena as well, but we'll never know. What we do know is our quarter final lineup:

Wattimena/Woodhouse - 42/43/48/44

van Duijvenbode/Heta - 56/55/57/56

Bialecki/Wade - 32/34/32/33

Aspinall/Ratajski - 70/60/64/65

Leverkusen round 2

God damnit Willie, pin any of the four (fact check me on that?) match darts you had, and this is a glorious day, as is we get out for a small win, but nowhere near the enormous plus we could have had. Still, we move on, an awful lot of today's games were an absolute cluster but let's look at what we have.

Damon Heta v Rob Owen - 56/60/61/59

Mike De Decker v Jan Schmidt - insufficient data on Schmidt

Luke Woodhouse v Dragutin Horvat - insufficient data on Horvat

Danny Noppert v Sebastian Bialecki - 59/61/66/62

Jermaine Wattimena v Kim Huybrechts - 43/46/52/47

Chris Dobey v Dirk van Duijvenbode - 59/53/52/55

Wessel Nijman v Bradley Brooks - 77/78/67/74

Krzysztof Ratajski v Max Hopp - 63/62/61/62

Stephen Bunting v Ryan Joyce - 72/67/74/71

James Wade v Maik Kuivenhoven - 78/71/71/73

Jonny Clayton v Karel Sedlacek - 64/64/70/66

Michael van Gerwen v Joe Cullen - 62/57/63/61

Gian van Veen v Niko Springer - 54/66/71/64

Martin Schindler v Kevin Doets - 39/36/41/39

Nathan Aspinall v Mickey Mansell - 79/73/74/75

Ross Smith v Niels Zonneveld - 62/61/59/61

Feast on that as you will.

Matchplay field set

Well it was really only going to come down to one of two things - if someone on the fringes made a hero run (they didn't), and if not, who was going to be the one man to miss (Gurney). One thing I'd kind of like to see, given that the Matchplay is the obvious choice to be the next tournament for expansion, is to make it 40 players, and have a day one on the Friday where 9-16 on the Pro Tour would play 17-24 in the Pro Tour to make the event proper (or, for that matter, 1-8 not qualified just based on the Pro Tour in 2026, so that new card holders have more of a chance). Whether you do it as one session first to six kind of like a Euro Tour event, one longer session first to eight, or two where it's first to ten just like the first round as is, I don't know. Probably depends on how many tickets they think they can shift, which right now should be "all of them". That would give us Gurney, Huybrechts, Bialecki, Sedlacek, de Graaf, Reyes, Veenstra and Clemens, which is frankly a thousand times more interesting than the bottom eight who did make it (although the number 9 in Zonneveld is someone who I really want to see how he does on debut), and right now that gives you seven different nationalities in that group, none of them English. Which would be a GREAT Euro selling point, although granted that is quite clearly just circumstances for this year. Let's hope some of those will push on to the Grand Prix - Reyes is in a spot right now at the expense of Schindler, other than that it's just the same field, I really hate how the two hardest to qualify for majors have basically zero churn in them. The Euro Tour doesn't help that and we'll come to Leverkusen in a minute.

I wondered what a field would look like if you went off of my database based on the same qualifying criteria, but instead of money, you went with legs won or averages. Now my database filters down to just the last year (as I use it for betting, and anything more than a year old really isn't relevant), so instead of two years all money/one year Pro Tour, I'll go the full year for the first sixteen, and then just 2026 for the next lot. For scoring, you would get:

Littler, Humphries, Price, Anderson, Dobey, van Veen, van Gerwen, Nijman, Bunting, Rock, Clayton, van Duijvenbode, R Smith, Cross, Aspinall, Wade - Doets, Hood, Heta, Ratajski, Woodhouse, Searle, Zonnveld, Cullen, Noppert, Wattimena, Huybrechts, de Graaf, Greaves, Gilding, Scutt, Rydz

For legs won, you would get:

Nijman, Noppert, Dobey, Doets, Woodhouse, Wattimena, R Smith, Ratajski, van Veen, Clayton, Bunting, Gilding, Wade, Price, Rock, O'Connor - Bialecki, Cullen, van Duijvenbode, Searle, Chisnall, Reyes, Zonneveld, Gurney, Greaves, Huybrechts, Heta, Sedlacek, Bissell, Manby, Springer, Menzies

That second one would be complete carnage, as you'd be missing all of the top four in the world. But hey, if you mail the season in in favour of exhibitions, that's on you.

OK, Leverkusen. As always, numbers are short, medium and long data, with the composite value last.

Joyce/Varila - insufficient data on Varila

Huybrechts/Price - 75/78/74/76

Sedlacek/Griffin - 67/69/65/67

Vandenbogaerde/Horvat - insufficient data on Horvat

van Duijvenbode/van de Weerd - no data on van de Weerd

Wenig/Brooks - 43/49/36/42

Cullen/Manby - 53/58/53/55

Gilding/Owen - 53/54/57/55

O'Connor/Bialecki - 59/61/61/60

Doets/Gruellich - 85/82/80/82

Gurney/Kuivenhoven - 60/55/56/57

Menzies/Schmidt - insufficient data on Schmidt

Mansell/Smejda - no data on Smejda

Zonneveld/Klose - 81/82/81 (no short data on Klose)

Springer/Labanauskas - 65/65/64/65

Cross/Hopp - 70/61/63/65

Of those we have not much on, we kind of know what Horvat and Klose are. van de Weerd is a complete random but didn't drop below 87 in the qualifier and beat Krohne, Roetzsch and Barkhausen, so doesn't seem that bad. Varila's won an SDC tour this year but hasn't really impressed that much. Schmidt played ET4 and took Springer to a decider but didn't look too impressive while doing so. Smejda played a Euro Tour back in late 2024 and was not impressive against Aspinall. Be back Friday evening for round two, the Sunday might be a bit late as I'll be coming off a full day at the football, both live on TV, which doesn't end until gone midnight.