Monday, 20 July 2026

Matchplay round two

Well that went mostly as expected. Thought that the vast majority of seeds would get through, and called this out on Reddit (and got downvoted by the commies there for piling shit on unranked events but who cares), and that's basically what happened. Dirk over Dobey was a tad fortunate, but I bet on it, and it was something we considered. Cross over Noppert, well that's the only one we actually projected the seed to lose, I still bet Noppert as he seemed undervalued at the actual price, it didn't work (but overall punts have been decent enough), that's fine. Then Cameron Menzies.

Cameron Menzies.

What in the living fuck happened there? And to finish it with a 170 of all things? Well that was something that happened and probably gifts Littler the title, but let's not piss on the tournament as it's not been that bad, and let's just jump into the projections.

Littler/Aspinall - NA/77/79/78
Rock/Bunting - 46/56/51/51
van Gerwen/van Duijvenbode - 61/52/53/55
Clayton/Anderson - 35/26/34/32
Menzies/Smith - 40/32/35/36
Price/Cross - 50/80/79/70
van Veen/Nijman - 29/46/55/43
Wade/Searle - 58/45/43/49

Main thought - oh my god what an absolute form differential in the Price match (and, to a lesser extent, the van Veen one). That said, we can see from the previous post that his sample size was basically an absolute minimum, and that didn't help by playing like complete arse today and only still being in the tournament because Schindler completely fell apart, but it is what it is. I don't see anything hugely controversial here, and as value was kind of to a minimum in round one, I'm thinking we won't see much of anything these next two days either. But we'll see.

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