ET12 quarters

Time to quickly throw this up before the Arsenal game, got away with a big one in the Noppert game for sure:

Price/Smith - 57/60/65/61

O'Connor/Humphries - 28/26/24/26

Clayton/van Gerwen - 57/46/45/49

Noppert/Littler - 16/17/19/17

Couple of games that might be good there. Then a couple of games that don't rate as interesting at all. If Humphries goes through, then it'd be too close to call against Price (and hence around about the same if it was against Smith), while Littler/Clayton would be around the 80/20 mark (assuming the same if it was MvG given how close that quarter is overall, but periodic data might swing it one way or the other ever so slightly).

And if we do get the "dream final" (which we've seen a dozen times this season already), it's probably about 70/30 in favour of Littler. Humphries would be more of a 2-1 shot in longer data, but the most recent form (which is basically Littler crushing the Matchplay and not that much else) is that favourable to the younger Luke that it moves the needle enough that it's smack bang in between 2-1 and 3-1 over the weighted averages.

ET12 round 3

This is another short notice one I know, but long day at the football yesterday. Hopefully next week will be less flustered as I'm at a local home game, but let's just jump straight into the last sixteen. Saturday started out well with decent pick ups on Noppert and Menzies, but then pretty much entirely went to shit. Rock won so we did at least broke even with the many losing bets primarily being minimum plays, but none of the others outside of maybe Bunting were really close.

Price/Menzies - 62/66/71/66

van Veen/Smith - 38/44/58/47

Rock/O'Connor - 55/57/63/58

Humphries/Gilding - 66/76/77/73

Clayton/Barry - 69/62/69/67

van Gerwen/Nijman - 42/44/48/45

Woodhouse/Noppert - 47/57/50/51

Littler/Ratajski - 91/83/85/86

Really not seeing much of value there, except Littler might be oddly undervalued.

ET12 round two

Yikes, that was not nice. Huybrechts missing a match dart, Scutt blowing a 4-2 lead, and then Dirk doing Dirk things, not pretty. Could have been worse for sure, but not really what I was hoping to see. Anyway, let's jump into round two and I don't have a lot of time to do it:

Jermaine Wattimena v Krzysztof Ratajski - 41/50/51/47

Ryan Searle v William O'Connor - 65/60/63/63

Danny Noppert v Kevin Doets - 54/43/48/48

Gary Anderson v Cameron Menzies - 51/68/68/62

Chris Dobey v Keane Barry - 70/70/74/71

Ross Smith v Stephen Burton - 79/71/73/74

Nathan Aspinall v Andrew Gilding - 76/75/70/74

Wessel Nijman v Martin Schindler - 63/66/68/66

Gian van Veen v Jeffrey de Graaf - 45/49/68/54

Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta - 56/51/53/53

Gerwyn Price v Callan Rydz - 51/68/70/63

Luke Littler v Niko Springer - 88/84/85/86

Luke Humphries v Beau Greaves - 56/71/74/67

Michael van Gerwen v Mario Vandenbogaerde - 70/75/76/74

Josh Rock v Ryan Joyce - 62/68/72/67

Stephen Bunting v Luke Woodhouse - 61/45/55/54

Let's rebuild!

ET12 round one

I'll hold on a FRH update until after ET13 I think, as that is the Grand Prix cutoff. Not that those two things are in any way related, it just seems like a more natural place to do it. Anyway, the draw dropped fairly recently, we do have the draw for the quali out and it looks like Sedlacek would be HNQ1 and Gawlas HNQ3 if they do get through things, so I'll do provisional projections for them. Nobody else from Czechia has anywhere near the legs needed, neither does Homola who won the Eastern Europe qualifier (he is in the database, but only for a single Dev Tour quarter run earlier this season). Engstrom has the legs but maybe not for full data sets. Anyway, here we go:

Rydz/Reyes - 72/53/56/60

Menzies/Engstrom - 72 (only full data on Engstrom)

Zonneveld/de Graaf - 35/45/52/44

Cullen/Burton - 66/64/62/64

Joyce/Huybrechts - 28/28/33/30

Gurney/Greaves - 47/44/38/43

Heta/Sedlacek (provisional) - 67/61/65/64

Cross/Barry - 63/64/64/64

van Duijvenbode/Vandenbogaerde - 73/75/74/74

Schindler/Owen - 49/54/51/51

Woodhouse/Scutt - 49/59/56/55

Doets/Evans - 58/65/62/62

Ratajski/Gawlas (provisional) - 60/61/60/60

Note when I say provisional, the numbers aren't going to change (I don't include ET qualifiers in the database, although as the final round is effectively for ranking money, maybe I should include that?), it's only just to saw we are assuming the card holders will come through. If they don't, we have no prediction.