Before we dive into this, big props to Ross Montgomery for continuing Scotland's domination of the World Seniors, and also to Beau Greaves for continuing her dominance of seemingly everything outside of the top 128. The draw's been made, so let's dive straight into it. Numbers in brackets highlight the player's current FRH ranking (zero = unranked as of right now), which includes any minimum cash gained from the UK Open itself, write up is ordered in terms of the highest ranked FRH player in each bit of the draw, so will start with Wattimena and finish with whoever it finishes with.
Byes to round 4 - (1) Luke Humphries, (2) Luke Littler, (3) Michael van Gerwen, (4) Stephen Bunting, (5) Chris Dobey, (6) Rob Cross, (7) Jonny Clayton, (8) Dave Chisnall, (9) Danny Noppert, (10) Damon Heta, (11) Mike de Decker, (12) James Wade, (13) Gerwyn Price, (14) Gary Anderson, (15) Ross Smith, (16) Ryan Searle, (17) Dimitri van den Bergh, (18) Peter Wright, (19) Josh Rock, (20) Ritchie Edhouse, (21) Martin Schindler, (22) Michael Smith, (23) Nathan Aspinall, (24) Daryl Gurney, (25) Joe Cullen, (26) Ryan Joyce, (28) Gian van Veen, (29) Ricardo Pietreczko, (31) Andrew Gilding, (32) Dirk van Duijvenbode, (35) Krzysztof Ratajski, (37) Brendan Dolan
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (27) Jermaine Wattimena v (49) Florian Hempel
Kind of a tough draw for both here. I'm sure Jermaine would not have wanted anyone getting straight through to round three, but I'm sure everyone else wouldn't have wanted to draw Jermaine. This is probably closer than it feels, but a spicy tie regardless. At least it's on board 2 despite it being deserving of board one.
R1 - (165) Sebastian Bialecki v (273) Viktor Tingstrom, R2 - (111) Robert Grundy v Bialecki/Tingstrom, R3 - (30) Luke Woodhouse v Grundy/Bialecki/Tingstrom
First of what seem to be a lot of "flat bracket" sections where a first round game gets sent straight to a known opponent, the winner of which gets sent to another known opponent. Bialecki/Tingstrom should be interesting, Viktor seems slightly better but we're talking small samples, Grundy seems maybe worse than both (although it's not by a huge amount compared to Bialecki), then Luke seems like clearly the pick of the lot, could have had slightly better draws, but getting too much better than this seems unrealistic.
R1 - (123) Graham Usher v (151) John Henderson, (140) Rusty Jake Rodriguez v (0) Mike Gillet, R2 - Usher/Henderson v Rodriguez/Gillet, R3 - (33) Raymond van Barneveld v Usher/Henderson/Rodriguez/Gillet
Four way cluster to see who plays Barney here. First we've got what could easily have been a game in the world seniors this past weekend, and would have been if Hendo didn't lose to Coulson, who Usher then beat, Usher's numbers aren't as good as Hendo's but maybe that's a tell? Rusty's back on tour and plays Gillet, who we've known as a name from the WDF for some time but it's hard to put a finger on any really great accomplishments and I'd probably favour Rusty here, with the second round match probably being close. Barney should be more than fine whoever he plays.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (34) Martin Lukeman v (59) Jim Williams
Very nice round three game on paper, which is why it's naturally buried on board five. Lukeman's certainly got a fair bit more hype than Jim of late, but Jim might be putting together the better darts, although not by a huge deal. Ought to be close.
R1 - n/a, R2 - (69) Dom Taylor v (74) Steve Lennon, R3 - (36) Cameron Menzies v Taylor/Lennon
Quick one here. Taylor's been throwing great darts, had a break but is showing little signs of being rusty, Steve's one who for some time we've thought's been putting together better performances than results, but had an underwhelming 2024 compared to what we know he can do, and ought to be the underdog here. Menzies is a bastard draw for either, Cammy being clearly the best player in the mix, but Taylor can't be counted out if Dom does come through the second round game. He's just that good.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (38) Scott Williams v (42) Wessel Nijman
Tight game on the FRH rankings, but not on the numbers. Last twelve months, Williams is under 90 per turn. Wessel's over 93. That's a significant difference, although maybe Scott having a record of having done it on TV (this will be a main stage game) while Wessel's somewhat underperformed to date will claw back some of the differential. It still shouldn't be enough, but might make it tighter for Nijman than otherwise thought.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (39) Callan Rydz v (60) Alan Soutar
Another straight into round three game here. Callan's had not a bad start to 2025, while Alan's been a bit quiet pretty much since he won his Pro Tour event in the middle of last season. Callan's numbers are more impressive and he should be the favourite, but he's so up and down that Alan, if he shows up, can certainly take this one.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (40) Gabriel Clemens v (46) Ricky Evans
How many 33-64 player bangers have we got? We've got another one here, Gabriel having shown some flashes early this season, while Ricky looked a lot better in the worlds than he has done on the floor, and this is another main stage match so I guess that helps. Can't look past Clemens, as he has a decent differential in terms of numbers, but if Evans shows up he certainly has enough game to be able to get what wouldn't be the biggest of upsets.
R1 - (93) Stefan Bellmont v (142) Beau Greaves, R2 - (84) Rhys Griffin v Bellmont/Greaves, R3 - (41) Mickey Mansell v Griffin/Bellmont/Greaves
Another feed into feed into feed section here. Bellmont is a more than competent operator and would be dangerous against any non-card holder, but in Greaves he's facing maybe the non-card holder as of right now, at least in terms of results. Rhys isn't a bad player by any stretch, but I think he's probably not as good as either player who he might face, while Mansell is certainly having a purple patch, but I'm not sure that he's playing as good as Greaves is at this moment in times. If Beau gets turned over, then sure, Mickey's probably favoured, but if not, then he ought to be fine.
R1 - (144) Adam Warner v (0) Tommy Morris, (0) Greg Ritchie v (0) Jamie Kelling, R2 - Warner/Morris v Ritchie/Kelling, R3 - (43) Kevin Doets v Warner/Morris/Ritchie/Kelling
Another four way cluster feeding into a 33-64 here. Warner's the best known player on account of having a tour card and then getting it straight back, and he's playing Morris, winning through one of the qualifiers with a fairly impressive resume of wins in that event - Kevin Burness, Richie Burnett, Scott Baker then Tommy Lishman isn't bad, although he wasn't able to break 80 in any of those games. Ritchie has a card, and he's played some strong stuff so far, albeit with no results, while Kelling is a player that I've seen on the Modus lists many times but don't really know anything about, looking at the quals he has done, it's been just consistency that's got him in, but with nowhere near enough good performances to make me think Ritchie isn't favoured. I'm thinking that it'll be the card holders to come through, with the second round game maybe being tight, but Doets seems a cut above all of these, particularly if he's put his early 2024 meh performances behind him.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (44) Madars Razma v (62) Ryan Meikle
Back to straight shots. Madars and Ryan both have a reputation of being really, really inconsistent, so trying to call this one is somewhat of a fool's errand. Razma maybe has the slightly better long numbers, but it feels like Ryan is much improved over the last three to four months, tightening it up enough where it is probably a coinflip. Wouldn't want to put money on this one.
R1 - (137) Danny van Trijp v (281) Henry Coates, R2 - (75) Berry van Peer v van Trijp/Coates, R3 - (45) Connor Scutt v van Peer/van Trijp/Coates
Another feed into feed into feed game. van Trijp has just dropped off of the Pro Tour, but didn't seem too bad there, while Coates is in from the Dev Tour, and has had a fairly solid weekend just now so may be able to ask Danny some questions. van Peer is a bit up and down, we know what we can do at his peak, but looking at the raw numbers, he's just so inconsistent of late that he's not a banker by any stretch. Connor has a significant advantage over any of these, and ought to be fairly happy with this draw regardless of who he plays.
R1 - (78) Maik Kuivenhoven v (235) Maximilian Czerwinski, R2 - (115) Adam Hunt v Kuivenhoven/Czerwinski, R3 - (47) Jeffrey de Graaf v Hunt/Kuivenhoven/Czerwinski
Same old same old. Kuivenhoven is a known name for many years now, only entering in round one on account of dropping his card and needing to get it straight back, and should have more than enough of an experience and quality advantage to get through Czerwinski, who's fairly unknown, still fairly young (played Dev Tour in 22), but has yet to demonstrate anything that ought to give Maik any real problem. Hunt has a much more developed resume, and should make for a much closer game, but Kuivenhoven appears a better player from anything we've seen in recent times, Adam not really standing out or showing he's quite at the level he was at where he was holding a card for several seasons. de Graaf should be a good opponent in round three, showing a fair bit better than he has been doing historically in the worlds, he ought not to be favoured too heavily if it was to be Kuivenhoven coming through, but he is better.
R1 - n/a, R2 - n/a, R3 - (48) Niels Zonneveld v (57) Robert Owen
Our last straight into round three game, and we've got Niels, who looks to finally be established in the top 64, against Owen, who just held onto his top 64 spot through world championship heroics. This looks to be one where the Dutchman is a clear favourite, but it's certainly not a gimmie and Rob has course and distance in this event, so can clearly not be counted out.
R1 - (145) Owen Roelofs v (0) Tom Sykes, R2 - (58) Thibault Tricole v Roelofs/Sykes, R3 - (50) Willie O'Connor v Tricole/Roelofs/Sykes
More bang into bang into bang sections here. Roelofs was on the tour, and just dropped off it, but is here through Dev Tour rankings from last year, and he'll play Sykes, someone who I think probably has a higher profile than what he's actually done, but he had a steady opening Challenge Tour weekend, had more than respectable results in terms of numbers and got through some tough opponents, so clearly has some level of talent, wasn't far off getting a card so maybe he's actually the favourite here? Thibault's a good player who's better than either of these, but is it by that much? I'm not so sure, Tricole ought to come through, but any of these three coming through seems a reasonable shout. O'Connor looks easily the best player of any of these four, and with the rest of not having to come through one, or possibly two, games that look to be real scraps, I can't look past Willie to claim a fourth round spot here.
R1 - (67) Karel Sedlacek v (0) Paul Rowley, R2 - (103) Lukas Wenig v Sedlacek/Rowley, R3 - (51) Kim Huybrechts v Wenig/Sedlacek/Rowley
Same again. Sedlacek is in a clearly false position, having needed to reclaim a card having only just lost it, and plays Rowley, who has been on the Challenge Tour since seemingly forever and had a decent run on the first weekend, with some alright numbers in the quali he was able to get through to get here, but aside from an early win over David Evans he didn't play anyone of note, so I can't look past Karel here. Karel also ought to be stronger than Lukas, who's not been bad since getting a card but at the same time hasn't really done anything outstanding, certainly feels that Sedlacek has a better base game and a better ceiling. Huybrechts ought to be a good test, and Kim's numbers are frankly lower than Karel's. Clearly he's got a lot more experience at the business end of televised tournaments, but is he playing better? I'm not sure he is.
R1 - (109) Darius Labanauskas v (0) Derek Coulson, R2 - (71) Mario Vandenbogaerde v Labanauskas/Coulson, R3 - (52) Richard Veenstra v Vandenbogaerde/Labanauskas/Coulson
How many of these sorts of things are we going to get? Darius we know all about, has been around forever, is a known good operator and has had a good start to the year, and he'll play Coulson, who was a relatively unknown name to me, but is more known as of this weekend with a great run in the World Seniors, taking out Mervyn King, Tony O'Shea and John Henderson, and in the quali to get here he turned over Shayne Burgess and Chas Barstow, putting up some seriously good averages, so is clearly a threat. Mario has maybe dropped off a tad from where he's been at in previous years, still competent but I wouldn't say he's overly superior to either player he might end up coming up against. Veenstra had a worse 2024 than 2023 and I don't think that's debatable, but it was still more than good enough and he looks to be at a clear better standard by at least a couple of points per turn than anyone he might play, which is a significant enough differential that makes me think he should be safe, although not guaranteed, to make the last 64.
R1 - (229) Adam Lipscombe v (0) Marc Dewsbury, R2 - (98) Jelle Klaasen v Lipscombe/Dewsbury, R3 - (53) Ian White v Klaasen/Lipscombe/Dewsbury
Yet more of the same! Lipscombe is a player who I knew not as much about before he won his card, he's not made the greatest of starts to his pro career but in Dewsbury, who was a tour card holder in 2013-14 and a long time Challenge Tour player afterwards, is someone who we've not seen for a few years and in the Derby qualifier wasn't really putting up the greatest numbers. Not an enormous amount in it so could go either way. Klaasen is up next, and his numbers in the last year aren't actually that much more than what Adam's been doing early on, which did surprise me, so while I thought he'd be a bit of a favourite here, it's not by much again. As such, White, while not being the player he was, should have a pretty good edge regardless of who he ends up facing.
R1 - (54) Wesley Plaisier v (113) Cam Crabtree, R2 - (70) Radek Szaganski v (118) Benjamin Reus, (87) Andy Baetens v Plaisier/Crabtree, R3 - Szaganski/Reus v Baetens/Plaisier/Crabtree
One of the bigger clusters we've had so far, and one where due to silly PDC rules, the highest ranked player in Plaisier enters in round one. Crabtree is certainly not the easiest opponent he could face and someone who had a good Dev Tour weekend leading into this, while I wouldn't say Wesley is an underdog, he's not favoured by a great deal. Baetens is up for whoever wins and that should be an even more competitive game, I'm thinking Plaisier's a bit better and Crabtree is slightly worse, but any of those three coming through to round three is feasible. Szaganski against Reus is probably a bit easier to call than any of those, with Radek having a significant enough scoring advantage over Ben to make me think he should be comfortable, but at the same time I think Szaganski, despite being a Pro Tour winner, is probably worse than any of the three players he could face if he does come through Reus.
R1 - (136) Danny Jansen v (257) Dominik Gruellich, (213) Andreas Harrysson v (0) Scott Baker, R2 - Jansen/Gruellich v Harryson/Baker, R3 - (55) Nick Kenny v Jansen/Gruellich/Harrysson/Baker
We've got a four way cluster for one round three spot, and a known name for the other one. Jansen against Gruellich is a pretty decent game between young continental players, Jansen's probably got the better track record and got better results this past weekend, and on the data we've got he's probably a bit of a better player at this stage, so I'd give him the slight edge. Harrysson was a surprise player to not get a card this January and his numbers look a tad better than either Jansen or Gruellich, and he'll play Scott Baker, who is a former card holder from about 2019 and seemed to drop off the radar a bit the last couple of years, but making a welcome return here on the order of merit of the PDC's qualis, there he got to a couple of quarters (two through from each event), but was typically putting up stats which make me think Andreas should be comfortable enough, not really breaking beyond the mid 80 averages frequently enough. Kenny awaits whoever comes through, having a good 2024 and a more than solid start to 2025, Harrysson would be the toughest ask but I think Nick is ever so slightly better at this point.
R1 - (126) Jurjen van der Velde v (231) Tytus Kanik, R2 - (138) Bradley Brooks v van der Velde/Kanik, R3 - (56) Keane Barry v Brooks/van der Velde/Kanik
More bang bang bang action. van der Velde is here from a Dev Tour spot, and on the first weekend of that he's been pretty mediocre, making me wonder if he's still reeling from that world youth final defeat. Kanik is his opponent, who got back on tour this season but is probably showing less at this point in time than Jurjen is. The winner will play Bradley Brooks, who looked fantastic in winning his card back and has started alright in terms of performances in 2025, if not quite so much in results, so I'd probably tip Brooks to get through either potential opponent and then run into Barry, who's probably the pick of the bunch and had a fairly unlucky 2024, but Bradley's showing enough for me that while I'd say Keane is the favourite, it's not a significant deal.
R1 - (117) Jules van Dongen v (0) Simon Stevenson, (174) Jimmy van Schie v (221) Adam Paxton, R2 - van Dongen/Stevenson v van Schie/Paxton, R3 - (61) Jose de Sousa v van Dongen/Stevenson/van Schie/Paxton
We get another four way dance into someone with a round three bye. van Dongen had a 2024 that feels like more or less a write off, and he'll go up against Stevenson, who we've not seen a massive amount since he was a tour card holder through to about 2020. The former quarter finalist here has a historic higher level than Jules, and in the qualifier he got some nice averages into the 90's, making me think the qualifier should be favoured. On the other side we have another big surprise in not getting a card in van Schie, and he'll play Adam Paxton, who did get a card through the points system despite only showing occasional flashes on the secondary tours prior to that, I don't think he's at Jimmy's level and van Schie should be fine, and similarly I can't see that Stevenson's level right now is at Jimmy's level either - although obviously he has the ceiling to cause trouble. de Sousa awaits whoever comes through, and is way off the player he used to be, I really can't see that if it was van Schie that got to round three that it wouldn't be van Schie to make round four, while Stevenson might be close and the other two are the only ones where Jose I think still has enough in the tank to be favoured.
R1 - (114) Alexander Merkx v (254) Leon Weber, (203) Nathan Girvan v (0) Christopher Wickenden, R2 - Merkx/Weber v Girvan/Wickenden, R3 - (63) Matt Campbell v Merkx/Weber/Girvan/Wickenden
Same sort of thing as the above here. Merkx nearly got himself onto the tour proper through the Challenge Tour but Plaisier not getting one outright left him a place off so he gets this as a consolation, and is left to make the best of the non card holder world. He'll face Weber, a young German player who got on the tour through the points standings, but is a little bit of an unknown relatively speaking and I think Alex should have enough to handle the first round game. Girvan's also still pretty young and crept into the field through the Dev Tour, and faces Wickenden, who got in through the PDC points method with an OK resume, but mostly in the 80's in terms of averages. He's been around the Challenge Tour for a while but never really made too much headway, but did crack a quarter final in the first weekend this year so has something going for him, but I'd probably think Nathan's a better player, albeit without the greatest confidence due to samples. Think whoever comes through Merkx/Weber is going to be better than whoever comes through Girvan/Wickenden, and then we have Matt Campbell waiting, who's a bit of a mercurial character, if on form he should rinse any of these, if not he could quite easily lose, on average he's probably a bit better than Alex, who for me is the pick of the four, but a situation where Merkx comes through to the last 64 is not unrealistic in the slightest.
R1 - (143) Jim Long v (282) Pero Ljubic, R2 - (85) Nathan Rafferty v Long/Ljubic, R3 - (64) Mensur Suljovic v Rafferty/Long/Ljubic
One of the final players straight into round three here. Long and Ljubic are two players who were not on too many people's lists to get cards, but they did, Jim's probably got quite the bit more experience than Pero despite relatively similar stats on paper, which I think may come in very handy here. Rafferty would be up next, who's acquired an awful lot of experience himself despite his still relatively young age (not sure if he's still Dev Tour eligible?), and looks to have a point or so per turn better on scoring than either, so ought to be a moderate favourite. Suljovic is holding on to his card for now, although is no lock to hold it beyond 2025, but isn't in a bad spot to add some very useful prize money here, weighing in at a point, maybe two, better than Nathan, so getting into round four seems better than a 50/50 proposition for Mensur.
R1 - (95) Kai Gotthardt v (255) Tommy Lishman, R2 - (163) Michele Turetta v Gotthardt/Lishman, R3 - (65) Stephen Burton v Turetta/Gotthardt/Lishman
Running out of players straight into round three now, in round one we've got Gotthardt, who's had a bit of a slow start to 2025 but had a great 2024, and he's up against Lishman, who got through the last PDC qualifier having finalled the third one, and after a bit of a break he's started well in 2025, getting to a Challenge Tour final and hence parlaying that onto a couple of Pro Tour appearances. The limited numbers look pretty good, if they're sustainable he's definitely strong enough to ask questions of Kai. Michele is into round two pretty much by default and doesn't look as strong as either player he'd play, so we move onto Burton, who statistically doesn't seem much better than either of the first round players, if at all. Would probably tip Kai here, but if rounds 1/2 end up being a bit of a slog, Stephen being more rested by the time we get to it might make the difference.
R1 - (132) Niko Springer v (175) Cor Dekker, R2 - (105) Patrick Geeraets v Springer/Dekker, R3 - (66) Dylan Slevin v Geeraets/Springer/Dekker
Now finally onto the last of the round three guys. First up we've got Springer, who's looked solid and has jumped onto the main tour through Dev Tour exploits, and he faces Dekker, who was a slightly random card winner, but certainly not an unknown name, but I think Niko should be able to come through here. Round two sees Geeraets enter, who was relatively unknown this time last year, but hasn't been bad at all as a card holder, probably not doing well enough to hang with Springer, but appears better than Cor is. Final round three player is Slevin, who's steady enough, probably a little bit better than Patrick, but Niko has enough talent to get through all of these - if he shows up.
R1 - (198) Max Hopp v (0) Shaun Fox, R2 - (68) James Hurrell v (102) Darren Beveridge, (131) Justin Hood v Hopp/Fox, R3 - Hurrell/Beveridge v Hood/Hopp/Fox
Got a fair bit of round two clean up here. First in round one we've got Hopp, back on tour after some time away, we know all about him, Fox on the other hand is a new name to me, coming through the first PDC qualifier direct and putting up some serious numbers, breaking 90 in 5/6 of the last rounds. Obviously peak Max can deal with that, but when did we last see peak Max? The numbers in the database aren't overly pretty, so if Shaun can play like he did at MK at Minehead as well, there could be an upset on the cards. Justin Hood would face the winner in round two, who's shown sustained more than competent numbers over some time (just fractionally shy of 90 a turn in the database), which is enough to make me think that even if Fox did replicate his qualifier form, it might not be enough. Hurrell plays Beveridge in the other round two game, Hurrell's done more in terms of results having got his card at the same time as Darren, and may have a higher ceiling, but may also have a lower floor and there's really nothing whatsoever to separate the two players. They're both in kind of the same ballpark as Hood, although Justin may have a very slight edge. Very tough section to call, and it really wouldn't surprise me if any of these get out and into the evening session.
R1 - (72) Christian Kist v (0) Daniel Perry, (184) Aden Kirk v (0) Charlie Manby, R2 - (73) Chris Landman v Kist/Perry, (110) Haupai Puha v Kirk/Manby, R3 - Landman/Kist/Perry v Puha/Kirk/Manby
Little bit of a messy section here which is pulling both the highest two ranked players left into it. The highest is Kist, finally back on tour but starting from zero, he'll play Perry, in from the Dev Tour and off to a good start on the Dev Tour as well in 2025, only just outside the top ten after the first weekend as things stand. Kist may be a bit too much of an ask right now, seeing him a clear couple of points better off. Other round one game is Kirk against Manby, Aden in through the Challenge Tour and Charlie from the Dev Tour. Charlie's obviously made some waves due to a stupidly good 5-10 minute session rather than on account of getting to one of the DT finals, I don't have the level of numbers on him as I do on Aden (mainly due to Kirk having a good start to the CT last time round and getting onto the main tour a fair bit), Aden looks better but Manby looks to have made good progress so this one may be too close to call. Kist against Landman in round two looks to be another exceptionally close game, Landman might be a bit more consistent, but it's really hard to call it. Haupai Puha would come up against the winner of Kirk/Manby, and he may be slightly better than either, but it's really nothing to write home about, and as we go into round three, I can't see that Puha is quite at the level of either Kist or Landman. Extremely hard to call this one, maybe Charlie can ride the hype and put together something special, but the safer call is your own personal pick of the Dutchmen.
R1 - (195) Marvin van Velzen v (215) Tom Bissell, R2 - (89) Owen Bates v (97) George Killington, (152) Joshua Richardson v van Velzen/Bissell, R3 - Bates/Killington v Richardson/van Velzen/Bissell
Interesting section here. Only round one game is van Velzen against Bissell, both newly onto tour, Tom being the first man in in the UK and Marvin being the last in the EU. Little data on either at this stage - Bissell is probably slightly better overall, but MvV is likely the tidier player in terms of consistency, so may be one that's decided on how Tom plays on the day. The winner plays Richardson, who really hasn't done much of anything since getting his card just over a year ago, overall his numbers over a greater sample are worse than either player he could play, mainly due to consistency looking pretty bad in losing legs, of which there's a lot more than winning legs. Other round two game is between Bates and Killington, both still moderately young, Killington in his late 20's while Owen is young enough to still be on the Dev Tour where he got a bink and a final this past weekend, so looks in decent nick. The only difference between the two players is that Bates is a little bit more up and down, overall the numbers are really close, with both of them having more sample than either player they might face in round three, but looking slightly worse than both - although only just. One where I think 4/5 have a legitimate chance to get in the pot with the big boys.
R1 - (96) Andy Boulton v (0) Dennie Olde Kalter, (146) Lee Cocks v (204) Stefaan Henderyck, (181) Oskar Lukasiak v (185) Thomas Lovely, R2 - (108) Matthew Dennant v Boulton/Olde Kalter, Cocks/Henderyck v Lukasiak/Lovely, R3 - Dennant/Boulton/Olde Kalter v Cocks/Henderyck/Lukasiak/Lovely
The messiest section of the lot, with seven players out of a possible maximum eight. Boulton has a lot more experience and more of a track record at a higher level than Dennie, and with him having an alright start to being back on tour, compared to Dennie not really getting out of the blocks yet, makes Andy the easy pick. Lee Cocks is one of the Challenge Tour representatives and faces Henderyck, who got his card through points. I get the sense that Stefaan might have a bit of a higher ceiling, but that's more gut than numbers and Cocks is slightly better with a bigger sample, but it'll be a close one. Lukasiak against Lovely is a face off between two new card holders from points, Lovely has a smaller sample but higher scoring, that feels like it may be a bit misleading as Oskar probably has a fair amount of SDC legs where his numbers have been dragged down a touch, so I'm thinking this one is flippy. Dennant faces probably Boulton, and this looks like a game between two players who are extremely close statistically, maybe Andy likely having more experience on a major stage is the only difference between the two. The other round two game could really go any of four ways - Oskar probably the biggest name but with the lowest numbers, Lovely probably the best numbers but the smallest sample, with the other two kind of in the middle. In any case, I think that assuming Olde Kalter doesn't pull off a couple of shocks, whoever comes through these games should be a real underdog in round three, both Boulton and Dennant having a good sample of clear better performance than all four players they could face.
R1 - (99) Graham Hall v (202) Tavis Dudeney, R2 - (107) William Borland v (128) Brett Claydon, (125) Martijn Dragt v Hall/Dudeney, R3 - Borland/Claydon v Dragt/Hall/Dudeney
Nearly done now. First round we have Hall, who was OK on tour without doing quite enough to get into the big events needed to keep a card, who came through one of the PDC qualis straight out of the gate throwing generally what we'd expect him to, and he faces Tavis, maybe a little bit early for him to get a card but he's not done badly so far - although the numbers are inferior to Graham's and I'd fancy Hall to take this. He'd then face Martijn Dragt, in the second year of a card and while not terrible, is kind of wasting a spot and while closer to Hall's numbers, it's not at Hall's level so I'm thinking Graham should advance through that one as well. On the other side we have Borland against Claydon, both in year two of a card, neither doing a huge amount in year one, but Borland's done slightly more and is scoring slightly better, and also clearly has a stage experience advantage, so I'll give Willie the edge to get to round three. That said, Graham's numbers are also higher than either of these two - so we've got the odd spot in that I'm thinking the player who is the only one without a card will come through the other four who do.
R1 - (100) Darryl Pilgrim v (0) Chris Hartrey, R2 - (101) Jitse van der Wal v Pilgrim/Hartrey, (112) Danny Lauby v (166) Tim Wolters, R3 - van der Wal/Pilgrim/Hartrey v Lauby/Wolters
Our final section starts with Pilgrim, finally on tour after being one of the most dangerous players off tour for years, against Hartrey, maybe one of the closest things we have to a complete random in the field having won one of the random qualifiers in Newport, although he does have some Challenge Tour experience back in the pre-Dart Connect days. The numbers in the quali are OK, but Darryl should be fine here. He'd then face Jitse, whose stats seem remarkably close to Darryl's when I'd expect Pilgrim to have a bit of an edge. Other round two game is Lauby/Wolters, Danny the more well known player than Tim, statistically the better player and with superior big game experience. Lauby probably takes this, but I don't think he's better than either Pilgrim or JvdW. Would take Darryl to get through this gauntlet, but it's definitely not a lock.
That's your lot - I will be doing the usual round 1-3 megapost, but as I'm not offering explicit tips, I likely only make it on the morning, there should be enough here to give you a good idea of where I'm going.
