Thursday 30 March 2023

100 not out

Great landmark for the European Tour to have reached, shame it's been marred by some withdrawals (Humphries is ill which is fair enough, Bialecki is double booked with the Development Tour, which is an odd choice but whatever, Lewis who knows) but at least we have a decent system of replacement in order. Odd that Williams passed on it despite being just the wrong side of Matchplay qualification, maybe he just couldn't make the trip. I know it's not the easiest of places to get to. Still, as mentioned, we've not got much time to analyse this weekend so let's get straight into it.

Mioch/Soutar - Jeroen's making a second attempt at this level after out-averaging Ted Evetts in Kiel but losing, while Alan's looking to climb the Pro Tour rankings, being a bit off the Matchplay qualification spots, which is the sort of thing he needs to look to get to in order to solidify a worlds seed (currently provisionally #31). With really limited data on Mioch it's hard to feel confident on his abilities, Soots is a bit more than a 70% market favourite, which might be a little bit high but I don't feel as if 5/2 on Mioch is any outstanding value. Then again, checking the Challenge Tour averages, Mioch is only at 85 in conventional averages, which shouldn't be a big deal for Alan to handle. The winner plays Cullen, fair line for that would probably be about 7/4 Soutar?

Lennon/Boulton - For some reason I was thinking this was a redo from last weekend. It isn't. Neither player has had a bad start to the year, Andy in particular doing enough that he only actually rates as a small underdog, I'd have guessed a bit more than it actually is, market also has Steve as a tiny favourite so I don't see any astounding value. Winner plays Cross, who's somehow the #3 seed, looks like Lennon would have enough to approach a 2/1 shot, maybe 21/10 would be the spot on line.

Vandenbogaerde/Razma - All Euro tie here, Mario has had a decent start, Madars has looked OK in spots, market actually has Razma as the small dog, which seems a bit surprising based on relative rankings but it is what it is. I'm also getting Mario as a small favourite, only just slightly higher than 55/45 so nothing to write home about and no market value to be had. Winner will go up against Aspinall on the Saturday, Nathan not quite being a two in three favourite, let's set a line at 15/8 Mario.

Raman/Meikle - Brian's been plodding along in what's now a second card season with occasional decent wins but no real breakthrough success, Ryan meanwhile is one of a few players you feel might be due a breakthrough run, he's not that far off making the tricky majors at just a couple of grand back for the Matchplay, so making sure of these sorts of games is what he needs to do. Meikle seems like the clearly better player rating at more or less a 65/35 favourite, but with a best price of 8/15, it's another game where we're not interested in gambling. Clayton would be next up, and that looks a straight 2/1 match.

Dolan/Rupprecht - Brendan's been steady for the past few months, still hanging around the 90 scoring point but not quite having enough results to make the Matchplay as of right now, while Pascal's not had a bad start to his fledgling PDC career either, so this should be a good test for both. Looks like Dolan is just shy of a 2-1 favourite, although Rupprecht still has a little bit of a small sample, Pascal comes in at exactly 2/1 in the market, so no interest there, which is probably a little shorter than what Brendan should be if he was to face Heta in the next round, round about 9/4, possibly 5/2.

White/Perales - Ian's seemingly regaining a little bit of form after a bad 2022, while Perales is looking to get enough cash to retain his card at the end of the season, which isn't completely out of the question if he's able to make the worlds. Ian's the better player but it's not quite two in three, disappointingly Jose is priced at 7/4 which seems just fine to me. If Ian gets the win he'd have Wright next up, who looks a 70/30 favourite which'd put White at around 9/4, 5/2 or there abouts as a fair line, but given Peter's lack of form, I don't think we'd need much more to consider making the play in that one.

Brown/Campbell - Keegan quickly got his card back but other than that win against Wright has maybe been a bit under the radar, while Matt's probably most noticeable this year for that horrific showing against Huybrechts. Seems like Matt has the edge to me at around a 60/40 rating, but the market has this one as pretty much too close to call - think we've got a first play here, 0.25u Campbell 19/20 on Coralbrokes, would take most things longer than 5/6 for the same. Let's say Matt gets through and plays van Gerwen next up - that's maybe not as much of a mismatch as we'd think, he's actually showing more than 25% so call a fair line about 11/4? We might get a decent price for a small play in that one.

Burnett/Maendl-Lawrance - Richie we know all about and he's still got some off days but clearly playing the best he's done for a while, and he goes up against Liam, who's a bit of a wildcard, but was averaging typically a high 80's with the occasional bad game in the quali and has won the Slovak Open fairly recently (alas with no tracking), so can't be counted out on what I assume to be a Euro Tour debut. I think there's nearly enough to make a small flier here, oddschecker was showing 2/1 which I'd probably have shot at, but I can't find the bookie in question. Richie against Noppert in round two? Probably a 5/2 game.

Huybrechts/Evans - Onto the evening session, Kim's back amongst the winners this season, while Lee, after winning his card, has been scoring alright but not really ripping up any trees, and will have a tough task against the former Premier League player, but is seemingly doing enough to have 40% chances. That's enough to make a small play, 0.1u Evans 2/1, only just about a play as I'm feeling about the same as the above, I wouldn't bet anything shorter. If Kim does hold though, he'd play call up to the seeds de Sousa, which in the data is favouring Jose by quite some distance and would price Kim at 15/8, which I don't think we'll see so maybe there'll be value on JdS on the Saturday.

Springer/Williams - Scott's been a little bit quiet since being on the main tour proper as a card holder, and comes up against Springer, who's looked good on occasions in the past and looked really impressive in the qualifier, topping it off with a ridiculous win over Nico Kurz in the final. The market has this as moderately close with Scott not quite approaching a 60/40 favourite tag, I feel like it should be a play on Williams, but Niko is so dangerous I'm not sure I want to bet. Fortunately I don't have to. Dimi would be next up and Scott ought to be priced around 6/4, and I think we may end up getting better than that, if it's enough to bet, we'll have to see - if Scott wins, of course.

Rydz/de Decker - Callan has been a bit quiet after his biggish TV runs some time ago, think he had a good floor run somewhere recently but he's certainly not kicked on and may be losing a fair bit of ranking money at some point, while Mike's another one who's seemingly poised to make some sort of breakthrough and start attacking the top 32, currently being the last man into the Matchplay - ahead of Callan. Mike is projecting about a 55/45 favourite, but he's odds against, so we can play here, 0.25u de Decker 11/10. If Mike does win, Smith would be the next up, which is clearly a different level but he is playing well enough that he only ought to be 6/4, so one to monitor.

Gilding/Gurney - Two players in solid form, obviously Andrew had the bigger bink but Daryl's been just fine in 2023, although Gilding is better and nearly a 60/40 favourite. 4/5 is not quite enough to be tempting, I would probably need 10/11 to think about a tiny play, evens or better for a quarter unit. Chizzy would be a fascinating second round match up, there Gilding should be a dog, 13/8, perhaps 7/4, looks just about right for that one.

Hempel/Wilson - Florian made it as one of the highest ranking Germans, don't really agree with that being a criteria but it is what it is, Wilson has not been bad but a little underwhelming since getting his card back, the game isn't too dissimilar to Florian's level and I see this as too close to call, as does the market with neither player even being even money. Let's say Hempel moves on for argument's sake, although the lines should be about the same, it'd be Rock up next and it really ought to be 9/2 or there abouts for whoever wins the opener, Josh is that good and has cleaned up a little bit of a blip in the early stages of the year these past couple of weeks.

Smith/Myller - Ross has a Pro Tour win this month and is looking the best he's maybe ever done, which is a bad sign for Paavo, who won the Nordic qualifier but is effectively a random and in the SDC matches I've seen he's scoring under 80, so this looks like a severe mismatch and Smith being 1/20 doesn't look like it's overly disrespectful. I can't recommend a play at that price, but 4/1 for 6-0? Why not. Winner faces Price who is probably the hottest player in the world right now and has an extremely good track record at this venue, fair line to me looks to be about 2/1 Smith, but with Gerwyn being this good at this point in time, it might be even longer and it's really hard to bet against the Iceman.

van Barneveld/Burton - Barney's one of three (Williams, de Decker) who got a sub call, and he'll face Burton, neither player has done a massive amount this year so it's a good chance to kickstart their seasons. Barney is solidly better and should win three out of four games so Stephen isn't drawing completely dead, but the line of 10/3 on him isn't out of line in the slightest. Barney would potentially face Schindler, and in this one it'd be really tight - I'd stick Barney at 11/10, maybe just maybe make him a little bit longer given Riesa is probably the closest thing Martin has to a home event (although Wiki is now implying he's living in Offenbach).

Clemens/Whitlock - Last game, and this is one between two very fine operators who've both made a tour final this season and it's genuinely too close to call, maybe Clemens has like a 1% advantage, it's that tight. Market favours it a little bit more in Gabriel's favour sticking Whitlock at just odds against, the game is in Germany so that's not unreasonable. van Duijvenbode awaits the winner and whoever faces him ought to be longer than 2/1 - but not much longer. 9/4 seems about right, maybe pull it back to 2/1 if it was Clemens with a home crowd or something like that.

So that's the preview of the first two days, just the three bets, and not too many where we were close but opted to be cautious. They're getting better at this line setting malarkey it seems.

Wednesday 29 March 2023


Saturday was a bit too draining so I couldn't get anything in place for Sunday's games. Price is looking super hot right now, probably the best player in the game. MvG is certainly close, Smith maybe a bit further back, Wright? How many people would you put as a favourite against Wright right now? I'd certainly go with Dirk at least, probably at least half a dozen players.

It's a horrid run of form - majors losing to Huybrechts (worlds) and Burnett (UK Open), Brown and Pietreczko in the Euros, a distant bottom of the Premier League. Have we already seen the best of him, or is this just a short blip? Who knows, we'll see if he rebounds, but in the same section of the draw as Dirk in round three and Humphries/Dimi in the quarter, I wouldn't be overly optimistic. That said, it sounds like some players may have withdrawn so that could all change.

New FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Rob Cross (UP 1)
7 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
8 Dimitri van den Bergh
9 Danny Noppert
10 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
11 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
12 Ross Smith (UP 2)
13 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
14 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
15 Ryan Searle
16 Damon Heta
17 Gabriel Clemens
18 Andrew Gilding
19 Chris Dobey (UP 1)
20 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)

Quarter finalist Rock is now up to 26 and is the highest ranked from Ireland (either), Meikle's final day appearance has him nudge up into the top 45, while Pietreczko is inside the top 75 for I assume the first time. Expect a post tomorrow evening with thoughts on the draw, with bets to follow soon, but updates for future rounds will be limited as I'm away for the weekend.

Development Tour going to be interesting though, will we see Littler and Greaves?

Friday 24 March 2023

ET2 round 2 thoughts

Less than ideal set of results today, Kuivenhoven didn't seemingly play too badly but couldn't get it done, Hempel was very disappointing however. Still, both were only small plays and it's only a relatively small hit, we expect both to lose a bit more than half the time, and we only need one to hit to cover the other with interest, can't really complain about getting a clear bottom quartile result. Going to be super quick about round two as I don't have a huge amount of time:

Heta/Boulton - 0.25u Heta 4/9, shouldn't be this close, some random books are offering 1/2 which seems even more ridiculous

Cross/Joyce - Maybe tiny value on Joyce, but not going to push it

Chisnall/Williams - Line looks pretty much perfect

van Duijvenbode/Evetts - Same. Wouldn't hate people putting Dirk in an acca but Ted did look alright yesterday

Cullen/Smith - Everything seeing this as super tight, avoid and just enjoy the game

Clayton/Meikle - Clayton being set as a 2-1 favourite appears perfect

Noppert/Dobey - Market has this super close, I have Danny as having a moderately small edge which is not enough to consider a bet sadly

Searle/Bunting - Stephen definitely extremely live, enough so that the market's actually noticed and given us no value whatsoever

Price/Ratajski - Maybe close to a tiny play on Ratajski, we can get 5/2, I've got him as ever so slightly more than a one in three shot, wouldn't hate a play at that price but he made hard work of today, so not tempted

Humphries/Dolan - Brendan has chances, but they're accurately reflected in the lines we can see

Smith/Eidams - Little bit of a surprise to see Rene come through, but the run ends here, not even considering 11/1, maybe the bet should actually be on Smith here

Wright/Pietreczko - Was wondering whether this would actually be a tempting play on Ricardo, but looking at the numbers, he's actually overvalued on long form and probably about right on more recent form, so will pass

van Gerwen/van Barneveld - 0.1u van Barneveld 3/1, I'm seeing Barney as just more than one in three, but not quite 35%. Getting 3/1? We'll have a flyer there

van den Bergh/Wade - Line sadly appears perfect, Dimi is the better player but I'm still seeing Wade as approaching 40% chances. Wade at 6/4 therefore appears completely disinteresting

Schindler/O'Connor - Kind of a similar line here. Market maybe has this a bit closer than it actually is in reality, but it is only in very limited fringe bookies and most places have things looking correct in my opinion

Rock/White - Another one that looks perfect, I'm seeing Josh as bang on 70%, he's 2/5. Not really worth considering Ian despite a great end to his game

Just the two plays, one odds on, one another long shot, let's see how it goes.

ET2 round 1 bets

Going to go through in running order:

O'Connor/Kantele - Maybe this is slightly undervaluing Marko? Sure, Willie's the better player, but I don't know if he's really a player that's guaranteed to win this more than three times out of four. 10/3 isn't quite enough for me to bite, but it's definitely not worth taking Willie in this one.

Joyce/Wattimena - Market has this pretty much a flip. I think that's enough for me to avoid it, if anything the value is on 10/11 Ryan, but it's extremely marginal and tempered by Jermaine's form.

Dolan/Lennon - Another one the market has correct with Brendan being slightly favoured. Easy pass, this one should be close.

Ratajski/Brooks - They're getting good these bookies, pricing Krzysztof at 4/11. That's not giving nearly long enough for me to take a look at Bradley.

Nentjes/Pietreczko - Nearly thinking about taking Geert here. Think this one is going to be extremely close on year long form, but Pikachu's been playing a bit better more recently and 11/8 isn't really enough for me to fly in.

Eidams/van der Velde - Jurjen is a bit more odds on than I thought, and I think he's improved his game just enough that we can avoid taking Rene just out of general principle at about 5/2. Wouldn't surprise me if this is closer than the market suggests, but I can't see Eidams getting over the line.

de Sousa/Evetts - Seems to be priced about correctly with Ted at just over 2/1. No betting interest here.

Woodhouse/Boulton - Luke's only a small favourite at 8/11. I think that's definitely worth considering, I'd have priced this at nearer 4/7, maybe 8/15 (assuming no vig), he's playing that well. It's not quite the edge, but definitely don't hate a small play.

Williams/Henderson - Jim's shorter than 1/2, which surprised me a little, either they're down on Hendo or they've caught up to the fact that Jim's actually pretty good at this game. Line seems fine to me.

Smith/Rupprecht - They're offering nearly enough on Pascal that we can take a small nibble here. 9/2 looks to be a little too long, especially for someone on home soil, but it is a big stage debut which will temper expectations a tad, and Ross is probably playing a little bit better than his longer form suggests right now, so I'll step away from the betting slip.

Meikle/Kurz - Can we take Nico in this one? We're definitely not taking Meikle at shorter than 2/5, but will Kurz get home often enough? I'd really liked to have seen Kurz at last weekend's Challenge Tour to give us a clue, but we don't get that, I kind of think we should stab at the price offered as we know Nico's top game is pretty solid and Ryan isn't that unbeatable a player, but I won't. Just looked back at the quali, he really wasn't doing enough for me.

Kuivenhoven/Dobey - Going to take a first stab here, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 12/5, he seems a fair bit better than the market suggests, and we've got Chris making a real quick turnaround, actually having played two games last night, so there's enough reason to think he might not be at 100% in terms of freshness.

van Barneveld/Sebesta - 10/1 is a big number in a two horse race but honestly it seems fine.

Hempel/Wade - Going to take another flyer here, 0.1u Hempel 3/1, Wade's good but Hempel is not bad, and the tournament is literally in his backyard. Easy play.

Clemens/White - Seems a close enough game to ignore. White's the slight dog but I think that's understandable given Clemens is improving and White is lacking form. Easy enough pass for me.

Bunting/Gurney - Another good close game late. Market shades towards Bunting, so do we, no bet.

So just the two small underdog plays today. Oh well.

Thursday 23 March 2023

ET2 draw thoughts

Been away for a little bit, so have missed some Pro Tours, the key notes being that Dirk's continuing to make a top ten case, MvG is still good, Smudger is showing that major bink isn't a fluke, and Ando's going nowhere. Also good to see Rock getting to a final, Ratajski adding on further Pro Tour money, and Searle consolidating a very good start. But the big thing (other than World Series to Poland omg) is it's another Euro Tour weekend. Let's look through the draw:

Chisnall v Williams/Henderson - Been good to see Hendo getting results on the Challenge Tour this past weekend, but that he's draw Jim, who rates to win around two out of three games, is kind of unfortunate. That Jim would then play Dave, who binked the first of these and is playing very well, is unfortunate again, as Williams is probably about a 2-1 dog the other way. Oof.

Noppert v Kuivenhoven/Dobey - Quick turn around for Chris after tonight's Premier League, as such it might be a little bit of a subdued performance maybe? He is on the evening session at least, so maybe Maik winning about 38% could be increased a touch. If Chris does get through, a nice opponent in Noppert will be next, and Danny ought to be a small favourite.

Heta v Woodhouse/Boulton - Luke's had a very good start to the year, probably playing the best he's done for quite some time, and he comes up against Boulton, who's already got a Challenge Tour in the bank this year so can't be playing too badly himself. Probably Luke by 60-65%, lean towards the top end on form. Damon probably wouldn't be too different a favourite if Woodhouse was to come through.

Clayton v Meikle/Kurz - Feels like it's been forever since we've seen Nico, indeed we only have ten legs in the past year on him. Meikle's had maybe a slightly slow start to the year, but still should be favoured - hard to quantify, but feel like another 2-1 sort of game, maybe slightly more in Ryan's favour, isn't unfair. Clayton's off to a good start this year and probably should take the second round game about 70% of the time.

Smith v Eidams/van der Velde - Speaking of Germans we've not seen for a while, here's Eidams, who we have pretty much the same amount of data on as Kurz. And it's a bit worse to go along with it. Jurjen's had a few OK results of late and should be comfortable, but hugely outclassed by Smith with like a 85/15 clip.

Price v Ratajski/Brooks - Bradley had a real good run in a recent Pro Tour, but so did Ratajski, who lost at the same semi stage as Brooks did (and went one better the day after). Seems a clear Pole game this, 75% or more, Gerwyn could kind of do with a run here given he's now out of the seedings for these going forwards, and this isn't an easy draw - not even 65% if he was to play Ratajski in round two.

van Gerwen v van Barneveld/Sebesta - Filip hasn't looked brilliant in the limited times we've seen him, and Barney should be way too strong here, so let's go straight to round two. Barney's still got enough about him that he might nick this one time in three.

van den Bergh v Hempel/Wade - Would be kind of a useful win for both here, James to arrest a slide down the rankings after his UK Open win dropped off, and Florian to try to solidify a tour card position which is in no way certain going forward. Wade appears favoured by nearly two in three, and he ought to be fairly live against Dimi, who's looked OK in spots but mostly in unranked stuff, only having just over a 60% win chance against James.

Wright v Nentjes/Pietreczko - Good clash between two up and comers, Geert's been around for a bit longer but Ricardo's probably had a little bit better in terms of results, particularly in the last six months. Seeing this as too close to call, and seeing Wright as an overwhelming favourite against either opponent.

Searle v Bunting/Gurney - Very nice section here, Daryl's looked pretty decent this season but Stephen's looked good for some time, and rates as a 60/40 favourite in the opening round. Searle's had an excellent start in terms of results so far this season with three finals, but longer form gives him only just the right side of a coinflip against Bunting.

Cross v Joyce/Wattimena - Both first round players have been kind of samey in results, but Joyce has been a bit better in terms of performances, call him a 60/40 favourite, maybe tone it down slightly as we know Jermaine's better games have been waited to more recently. Rob maintains a high level game and ought to take round two approaching two times out of three.

Schindler v O'Connor/Kantele - Willie has kind of been under the radar for a while, but should have enough for Kantele, despite him having a real good start to the year with a 2/4 record in binking SDC titles. Willie against Martin ought to be moderately close, Schindler's been the better player but we're only talking 60/40 here.

van Duijvenbode v de Sousa/Evetts - Jose's trying to stay relevant in the top sixteen picture, and getting back up into the seeds would be one way to do this - first he'd have to come past Ted, who's been a bit meh for a while but has flashed a little bit in 2023. Still easily Jose though, bit more than 70/30, but whoever comes through has the unfortunate draw of one of the most in form players now in Dirk, who's easily 60/40 against de Sousa.

Cullen v Smith/Rupprecht - Will be interesting to see how Pascal does, but he's got a super tough draw in Ross, who ought to be a near 3-1 favourite. Smith against Cullen ought to be a really fun matchup, true flip.

Humphries v Dolan/Lennon - Good derby in round one, Brendan's maybe tailed off form a bit, while Lennon needs results more than Brendan does and isn't playing badly at all. Seems really close, Dolan maybe with a tiny edge, but Luke should be too good for either of these, neither having as much as a one in three chance.

Rock v Clemens/White - Gabriel will look to continue to climb the rankings against Ian, who will want to put an awful 2022 behind him as soon as possible. Appears a real close game, and the winner will face Rock, who's in the seedings here for the first time. Rock should be a bit more than a two in three favourite against either.

Back a bit later for bets.

Monday 6 March 2023


Holy fucking shit Andrew Gilding is a major champion, not a sentence I thought I'd be saying any time soon, if ever, but without ever playing spectacularly (certainly not with the heights he had during his previous semi final run in any case) he just hung in there when needed and took his chances, which is all he really needed to do. Huge result, also a pretty massive performance from Adam Gawlas to make the semi final which should see him securely inside the top 64 at the end of the year. Also great runs from Schindler, who continues to push up towards the top 20, and Richie Burnett as well, while Richie will still need to do some work to retain his card beyond 2023, he is at least in a decent position to do so, will still probably need to make the worlds, but there's a chance. A few disappointing early exits for many players in and around the 10-25 FRH ranking brackets, although as we did see there were a lot of high profile draws in round four, so this is the sort of thing that can always happen.

New FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Peter Wright
4 Gerwyn Price
5 Luke Humphries
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Rob Cross
8 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)
9 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)
10 Jonny Clayton
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode
12 Joe Cullen
13 Dave Chisnall
14 Ross Smith
15 Ryan Searle
16 Damon Heta
17 Gabriel Clemens
18 Andrew Gilding (NEW)
19 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
20 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)

Wade drops off the top 20. Dimi's semi sees the only other top 20 move, Schindler's quarter sees him up to #24, Gawlas is up inside the top 45 now, while Burnett is up to #72.

It's a busy couple of weeks coming up - there's Players Championships both of the next two weekends, the second bunch being a funky double header in Germany right after they have four Challenge Tours (I suppose that kind of makes sense if you think about it), this weekend we've also got more SDC action, the Asian Tour returns for the first time since forever, while next weekend also sees the Isle of Man event, which seems downgraded from previous years, but oh well.

As an aside, would it surprise you if I told you that Brendan Dolan and Adrian Lewis are outside of Matchplay qualification spots right now? Or that de Sousa and Ratajski are provisionally out of the Grand Prix (as is, for that matter, Gilding)?

Sunday 5 March 2023

UK Open quarters - any value?

A bit late in the day, but Dart Connect failed to get two of the last sixteen games from board two onto their system, so needed to use the much slower version of scraping from sportradar (which, unlike in round one, was actually working, avoiding the even slower version of finding the games on Youtube and scraping from there). Looks like all the big guns bar MvG are out, and as he's got a potentially tricky opponent in the quarters, perhaps it's not a formality that he wins it? We'll see. Ando was a bit disappointing in the match with Dimi, passing up many chances to get ahead earlier, then after getting back to 8-8 with the match in his hand, chokes the seventeenth leg. Oh well. Still up over a unit for the event, anything we like in the quarters?

Gilding/Schindler - Great opportunity for both here, in a match I'm finding impossible to call for either - Schindler has the tiniest edge possible, if they were to play a world final, I wouldn't even favour him by a third of a percent. As such, the tiniest of value is on Gilding (who has been this deep before, let's not forget), but at a generally best price of 11/10 it's not the edge to chase.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Nathan's come through some tough opponents, but maybe a little bit of a breather of a match against Cullen will come in handy to keep him refreshed against MvG - let's not forget Aspinall at the Slam being completely spent in the final. van Gerwen probably had his toughest test on the Friday, with both the remaining games being relatively comfortable - one against an opponent I thought he'd steamroller but didn't, then one where I thought he'd be given a stern test, but wasn't (maybe Humphries ran out of steam given his draws). Aspinall's live but I'm not giving him a great deal better than a one in four chance. He's 10/3, again, it's not the sort of edge I'd want to jump over.

Burnett/van den Bergh - Can the Richie fairytale continue? He's already beaten one player better than Dimitri, so why not? This is actually projecting reasonably close, although I say that in terms of closer than you might think - still seeing Dimi at about a 70/30 line. That probably points towards taking Richie, but I do wonder how many times he can get away with things as he's done, what with two 10-9 wins already and overcoming a big average differential against Wright. He's clearly going to need to be opportunistic again, it can happen, but I've just got the sense that taking around 4/1 isn't quite the right play.

Cross/Gawlas - Rob's just been quietly going about his business, eliminating Beaton and the Dutch pair of RvB and JdZ, while Adam has come through several tight games before putting together his best performance probably of his career to get this far in a rout of Willie O'Connor. Rob should be far too strong and claim this a little over three quarters of the time, which with a line of 10/3 on Gawlas, is reflected in the market.

So no bets - with the only one we saw in the last sixteen being on someone who's out, this isn't unexpected. As stated, I don't hate it if you want to take a flier on Richie, I'm just not going to officially recommend it, I might have a couple of quid on the exchange for shits and giggles. Will probably NOT be back in time for the semis, but I do not predict we will see anything of value if the market's views are coinciding with ours this accurately already.

Saturday 4 March 2023

Round 6 - any bets?

One up one down today, as the up was at even money there's no change in the profit and loss account, where there is change is in the makeup of the tournament, with Price and Noppert dropping out, annoyingly two of the players I was really close to adding on with backs went on to win (Dolan, Ando), maybe I should trust the numbers a bit more. Oh well, onto the last sixteen we go:

Dolan/Gilding - This would I think be a pretty fun watch, despite both players being somewhat deliberate, there's so many similarities in their games. Projections are saying Gilding by a little bit more than 60/40, don't think either player has been in brilliant recent form but Gilding's definitely been playing the better stuff in this tournament. Feels like it's close to a play on Andrew, 4/5 isn't a bad price but ideally I'd want ever so slightly more. That's the way I'd go if you put a gun to my head.

Anderson/van den Bergh - Ando made one Belgian look extremely ordinary in the last round, and now gets another who did enough to beat King without ever really looking brilliant. This seems like a 2-1 kind of game in favour of Ando. The line is nowhere near that with Gary being the underdog. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice and pass up the sort of value I did earlier, 0.25u Anderson 6/5.

de Zwaan/Cross - Jeffrey looks to be back to his best more and more with every passing game after dumping out Price with the highest average of the round, while Cross keeps doing Cross things, getting a professional job done on Beaton with a ton plus average of his own. Projections are hugely in favour of Rob, I'm going to naturally temper them slightly given just how well Jeffrey played this afternoon (despite the Friday being, at best, simply alright statistically), and it's enough for me not to want to take Cross at 2/5, which with the level of edge I perceive him having ignoring this afternoon would be close to a moderate play. Certainly don't want to be getting on the underdog hype train.

Clayton/Schindler - Jonny didn't need to do anything spectacular to get a big win over de Sousa, while Martin looked very competent in dumping out previous winner Adrian Lewis. Clayton's a favourite, but I don't see Martin as outclassed, he's certainly a live dog with a projection coming in at just over 40%, maybe tone that down a tad with Clayton's form to start the year. With Schindler having prices approaching 2/1, it's certainly worth considering taking the German here, but I'd want longer than 2's to actually recommend a play. Clayton certainly not "acca safe".

van Gerwen/Humphries - Michael was in a spot of bother in terms of the scoreline against Kleermaker, but kleered up (sigh) after the break, while Luke was forced the distance yet again but got home against Smith. This looks 60/40 in projections but I wonder how much back to back really long and tough games against quality opponents will have taken out of Luke. We can't even get 2/1 so this match just doesn't appeal to me from a betting perspective.

Wright/Burnett - Richie got home in a decider, while Peter wasn't brilliant statistically but was doing enough to get home in a fairly close game against Rydz. Richie's run has been a nice one, but it surely ends here, a best price of 5/1 looks spot on from where I'm looking and Snakebite will likely move on to the quarters.

O'Connor/Gawlas - Fantastic opportunity for both here (although Willie's obviously been this far before), O'Connor dumped out the reigning champion in a decider breaking a three figure average, while Adam was in a bit of a duel with Kevin Doets but came out on the right side of it. Willie should be favoured here, if I was setting a no vig line I'd go 8/13 - the market has it a little bit tighter, but not so close where we'd want to consider going against Gawlas.

Aspinall/Cullen - Final game, and it's another game for Nathan against a Premier League snub after he took out van Duijvenbode, this time it's against Cullen who ended the run of Karel Sedlacek. This one appears very tight on paper, I would maybe give Cullen the slightest of edges and I feel as if he may be slightly fresher, having had two easier games to this point as well as no Premier League the day before as well. Nathan is a marginal favourite, but it's still close enough that 11/10 isn't the sort of line I want to be piling on to here.

That's it, back tomorrow morning in all probability for quarter final thoughts.

Round 5 bets

Solid evening session, picked up another half a unit, pity that Littler and de Decker couldn't convert what were pretty good chances to win their games, but at the same time Dolan had no business winning his game against van der Voort, so we won't be too greedy and disappointed that it wasn't a bigger day. Getting towards the business end of things now, sixteen round five ties to look at, let's go:

Gawlas/Doets - Can't be overstated how big a game this is for both, plenty of reasonable draws to get in the next round which would put them in a major quarter final. Actually seeing these fairly close with Kevin having about a 5-6% edge, the market's actually shading things towards Gawlas, it's not quite enough to bet it (can only see Hills at 6/5), a bit longer and I'd go with it.

Burnett/Evetts - Same here, this would really help both hugely in their race to save tour cards, I'm seeing it about 60/40 in favour of Richie, that's enough for me, 0.25u Burnett evs

O'Connor/Noppert - Willie got a really easy run while Danny was given a good test by Williams who had a decent chance late on to force it all the way, Danny should be comfortable here, 70/30 as I see it, he's just shorter than 2/1 on which looks just fine.

Price/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was forced all the way by Jansen, while Gerwyn wasn't really tested but still looked in great form, Price looks way too good here, 1/6 might actually be the tiniest of values but with JdZ looking a little bit resurgent I'm happy to call it correct.

Lewis/Schindler - Adie got a comfortable win against Campbell, Schindler was pushed a bit more by Whitlock but never really looked in any danger. Coinflip for me, bookies can't split them either, next.

Huybrechts/Anderson - Kim needed to get a comeback to see off de Decker, while Ando was always a little bit too good for Wade who'll plummet in the official rankings now. The data model is all over Anderson, even just shorter than 1/2 looks like it might easily be a good play, if he plays like he did last night it will be, but I'll factor in some percent for Kim being in the winners circle recently and probably playing better than historical stats and just about say no to a Gary bet, which might look real silly in a few hours.

Woodhouse/Gilding - Good run for Luke having eliminated Josh Rock and then looking really good in a one-sided rout of Jelle Klaasen, while Andrew's apparently reached this stage for the first time since his semi run. Ooh. Numbers are saying 60/40 Gilding, he's 4/5, with those numbers taking into account that Gilding was pretty good this time last year and maybe not so much of late, and also factoring in Luke looking extremely good yesterday, I'm happy to call this a clear no bet.

Smith/Humphries - Michael was too good for Ian White, while Luke needed every leg to defeat Damon Heta and keep hopes of a first major alive, which he's going to have to do the hard way it seems, if it is this weekend. The numbers for these seem really, really close, Michael's better but only fractionally, we're getting close to the price where I'd want to bet on Luke, but I'd need slightly longer than 6/4 and it's not there, at least not on the exchanges.

Dobey/Dolan - Brendan as mentioned needed a big comeback to survive, while Dobey came through a tough opponent in Ryan Searle with a solid average. Not quite 60/40, but Chris is favoured for me here, Dolan's getting up close to 5/2 which seems marginal in terms of a play, I won't but I wouldn't be lumping on the PL star here. Not even close.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk was given a tough test by Ratajski as expected, while Nathan was given an even tougher test by Soutar, which maybe wasn't quite so expected but it's what happened, maybe a chance for Dirk to make a statement "why is he in the Premier League" game? 65/35 in favour of Dirk for me, why the market is so close, I don't know, 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11

Cullen/Sedlacek - Joe was too good for Slevin as we thought but Dylan hung around for some time, while Karel blitzed Suljovic although the numbers seemed fairly even. Looks like Joe is clearly favoured, just shy of 70/30 but better than 2-1, market has it a bit further but not with the edge to consider playing Sedlacek as an underdog flyer, even with him looking superb in the earlier rounds.

Kleermaker/van Gerwen - Michael had to navigate a really tough draw in Chisnall but did, Kleermaker averaged less than Killington but still won 10-6, ok then. This is unbelievably lopsided, 1/10 actually isn't a losing play, that's how favoured I'm projecting MvG to be.

Clayton/de Sousa - Jonny got a bastard of a draw in Ross Smith and needed every leg to get over the line, while Jose got a more comfortable opponent in Labanauskas, who kept it surprisingly close but JdS moves on regardless. Clayton's better, but not by as much as you might think, maybe about 15% better. Call it a touch more given his red hot start to the season if you want. At 2/1, de Sousa is of minor interest but backing against Clayton right now is a bit dangerous, would have liked to have seen a bit more in round four to consider it. Jonny doesn't seem a good acca bet though.

King/van den Bergh - Mervyn got through an unremarkable game with Keane Barry, while Dimitri took a match of losing world semi finalists a little bit more comfortably than many thought. Dimitri should be too strong here, getting up close to 65% chances, some of the prices for King are getting close to where I'd consider a small flyer, but it's not quite enough for me.

Beaton/Cross - Steve continues a great vein of form and an 80 average from Rowby never threatened, while Rob got the deciding leg win over Barney. I'd expect Rob to win this 80% of the time just on pure numbers over the year and discounting form, so maybe with Cross being undervalued generally and Steve being a fan favourite who is playing well, there's have been a play. But Rob's shorter than 1/3 at best, so there isn't.

Wright/Rydz - Peter needed every leg to scrape through a deceptively tough draw against Bunting, while Callan looked probably the best he has done for a while in eliminating a close opponent in the rankings in Daryl Gurney. Wright should have too much here, I'd price it as 2/5, it's actually slightly tighter in the markets which does surprise me a touch (although Peter's awful PL form might be a factor in that), but there is not the sort of value to seriously think about taking Wright here.

That's your lot, expect me back after full times or there abouts with last sixteen thoughts.

Friday 3 March 2023

Round 4 bets

OK, here we go:

Labanauskas - de Sousa - 0.5u de Sousa 4/9 (Ladbrokes)
Woodhouse - Klaasen 0.25u Woodhouse 4/5 (365)
Killington - Kleermaker 0.25u Killington 13/10 (365)
Suljovic - Sedlacek no bet

Gawlas - Littler 0.25u Littler 20/21 (Boyles)
Wade - Anderson 0.25u Anderson 10/11 (365)
Campbell - Lewis no bet
van Gerwen - Chisnall no bet

O'Connor - Wattimena no bet
Price - Banks 1u Price 1/14 (Hills)
Humphries - Heta no bet
Ratajski - van Duijvenbode no bet

van Barneveld - Cross no bet
de Zwaan - Jansen no bet
King - Barry no bet
Rafferty - Evetts no bet

Schindler - Whitlock no bet
Huybrechts - de Decker 0.1u de Decker 11/8 (365)
Slevin - Cullen 0.25u Cullen 2/5 (Ladbrokes)
Noppert - Williams no bet

Rydz - Gurney no bet
van den Bergh - Clemens no bet
Doets - Lukeman no bet
Burnett - Hempel no bet

Rodriguez - Beaton no bet
van der Voort - Dolan 0.25u Dolan evs (365)
Smith - White no bet
Bunting - Wright no bet

Soutar - Aspinall no bet
Searle - Dobey no bet
Evans - Gilding no bet
Smith - Clayton no bet

UK Open round 4 draw thoughts

What a great day of darts it's been so far, not being able to find anything on van Veen against Owen aside, hopefully someone puts a recording of the stream up. And it's going to get better tonight, that is one hell of a draw and you could easily find a dozen games worthy of being put on the main stage, and there's not too many at all which look like complete duds. Let's put it this way - you've got Wade/Ando, Humphries/Heta, Ratajski/DvD, Barney/Cross, Noppert/Williams, DvdB/Clemens, Searle/Dobey and Smith/Clayton, and NONE of them are likely to be on the main stage assuming they pick the big four, all of which have got really interesting matchups in their own rights (MvG/Chizzy, Smith/White, Price/Banks and Wright/Bunting). Let's put up some percentages while we wait for the bookies to populate lines - was a pretty solid day, 4.35 units bet and 0.8 units profit for a steady high teens return in ROI. Some of these might have really limited sample sizes (looking mainly at Banks and Littler here, but also some newer card holders like Slevin although most have been filtered out), so some of these might be a bit unreliable, but when I actually start to make the best I'll take all that into account.

Labanauskas - de Sousa 11/89
Woodhouse - Klaasen 70/30
Killington - Kleermaker 61/39
Suljovic - Sedlacek 51/49

Gawlas - Littler 26/74
Wade - Anderson 24/76
Campbell - Lewis 41/59
van Gerwen - Chisnall 61/39

O'Connor - Wattimena 54/46
Price - Banks 99/1
Humphries - Heta 48/52
Ratajski - van Duijvenbode 33/67

van Barneveld - Cross 43/57
de Zwaan - Jansen 66/34
King - Barry 59/41
Rafferty - Evetts 55/45

Schindler - Whitlock 59/41
Huybrechts - de Decker 28/72
Slevin - Cullen 18/82
Noppert - Williams 58/42

Rydz - Gurney 58/42
van den Bergh - Clemens 63/37
Doets - Lukeman 41/59
Burnett - Hempel 59/41

Rodriguez - Beaton 52/48
van der Voort - Dolan 32/68
Smith - White 74/26
Bunting - Wright 36/64

Soutar - Aspinall 29/71
Searle - Dobey 58/42
Evans - Gilding 27/73
Smith - Clayton 41/59

Back shortly with actual plays.

UK Open Friday live post

As previous, I'll edit this post in running as and when I've got stuff to say. Working on known round two games now.

Known round two games:

Jansen/Brooks - Rates as a real coin toss, maybe Brooks slightly favoured. Jansen's slightly odds against so market tends to agree.
van Dongen/Doets - Kevin's the better player here, should win this two times out of three. Think there's enough value to go small on this one, 0.1u Doets 4/6, a bit better is available on the exchanges and some random bookies so go with that if you like.
Perales/Mansell - Seems kind of the same as the above. Mickey's favoured 65/35 in my eyes. There's a couple of random bookies that are offering a bit better than 4/6, would probably fire at 8/11 but that sort of price isn't generally available.
Peters/Wilson - Another 2-1 sort of game with James being favoured. Market is spot on.
Veenstra/Clark - Stats actually have Jamie surprisingly close in this one, having as much as a 45% chance on this one. This doesn't feel intuitively right and Richard's sample size is a little small, so I'm going to ignore the numbers despite better than 2/1 being available.
Burness/Rafferty - Yet more 2-1 games, Nathan's favoured. He's 4/7 compared to 7/4 for Kevin, so happy enough to ignore this one.
Szaganski/Kciuk - Back to back local derbies from countries which don't seem an obvious call for one, feels like Kciuk has been the consistently better player but he only projects at 55/45, market seems to have picked up on this one with a paltry 13/10 being the best you can get on Radek which clearly isn't worth it.
Scutt/Hendriks - Scutt is clearly better here, this is 3-1 territory. Enough to go small here - 0.1u Scutt 1/2, slightly better is available on rando sites and exchanges, think if you were to get better than 4/7 you can upgrade unit size.

Known round three games:

Lewis/Murnan - Adie should have this easily enough, Joe's not drawing dead but this is 70/30 territory. Murnan's right in the middle of 2/1 and 3/1 so no bet here.
Krcmar/Wattimena - Tough one to read, Jermaine's improving while Boris has often struggled in big events compared to the floor, yet the numbers say 55/45 Krcmar. Slightly odds against seems worth the stab to me, 0.1u Krcmar 11/10, that Jermaine lost to Springer last weekend gives me an indication that while he's playing better, conversion when it counts might still be a small factor.
Joyce/de Decker - Ryan's not been particularly underperforming, but de Decker is just getting continually better and rates as a 60/40 favourite to me. Coralbrokes give odds against, so while there is a wee bit of a consistency issue in Mike's game, it is being ironed out, 0.25u de Decker 11/10.
Kleermaker/Lennon - Important game for both, perhaps more for Steve. Lennon is playing the far better darts and should grab this two times in three. The market has it a little closer, which I can understand, but not to the sort of better than 4/6 line where I'd start with a small stab like with Doets in the previous round.
Rock/Woodhouse - Shame this one's come up early, Luke's clearly capable of getting to something like the last 32 or possibly further with a competent draw, and Josh can't like this draw too much. Obviously Rock is favoured, 70/30 for me. Market has it ever so slightly more one sided but not enough value to bet Woody here.
Hempel/Hughes - Jamie's resurgent and while Florian's not playing bad darts, Hughes ought to take this one, yet another game that projects about 65/35. Market is only slightly better than 1/2 on Hughes in some places so no value to be had.
O'Connor/Petersen - Oddly Devon's actually projecting at only a 40/60 dog, but his winning legs aren't actually too far behind Willie's. The losing legs are further off, so consistency is a factor. 12/5 on Devon I suppose isn't an awful play, but I can't really go against Willie in this venue, can't see him gifting Petersen the chances he will likely need.

1101 - We're under way, was a bit worried when all the games warming up briefly disappeared off Dart Connect, but must just have been a standard tournament thing I guess.
1104 - Actually noticed we've got four bets in play immediately, and they've all taken the first leg, will take that for now.
1110 - Claydon casually averaging 110 and being 3-0 down is a thing.
1112 - Now he wins a leg and the average drops eight points. Such a silly statistic.
1116 - Robbie Knops the first two get one away from a win, Adam Warner joins him right after.
1127 - Two up and two down on the bets from the first round of boards 3-8, small profit booked. Daniel Lee flier didn't work and Neyens was very disappointing, but Knops and Webster got the job done. Jurjen looked very good. Looking at four now known round two games now.
1130 - Montgomery/Warner feels too close to call. On the basis of what we saw from Jurjen, his game with Ronny Huybrechts seems the same. Menzies should be far, far too strong for Moston, hard to quantify given limited data on Jim but anything better than 1/3 might be a play. Webster/Martinez seems a bit better than 60/40 in favour of the Spaniard. Checking for lines now.
1133 - Two bets immediately taken on 365, 0.25u Menzies 2/5 and 0.25u Martinez 11/8.
1134 - Other two games we know are priced alright at a first glance. Looks like van Veen got through his opener, just waiting to have the stats come through on Dart Connect.
1135 - Kuivenhoven bet looks in real trouble, down four zip and averaging under 80 against Slevin in three figures, ouch.
1137 - That said, also got Kenny and Usher in the running right now, Kenny's up 3-1 with a worse average, while Usher is 2-2 but averaging 10 points higher than the qualifier. Also seeing Hall, Nentjes and Gurney doing fine so far.
1139 - van Veen/Owen had better come through on Dart Connect, as sportradar have their first fuckup of the year, no data at all. Useless.
1145 - They're also not even trying for the Richardson/Tricole game. This is not good and I hope DC are at least watching the stream, rather than just going to copy from sportradar after the event.
1150 - Rupprecht forced a decider, not great. Looking at van Veen as 65/35 against Waites, Slevin only having a small edge versus Wilkinson, and Hall solid 70/30 over Banks, although that's only an estimation.
1152 - Another couple of round two bets, 0.1u Wilkinson 2/1 against Slevin, this is a bit of a flyer but price seems OK, also 0.25u van Veen 10/11 versus Waites. Would really have liked to see the stats, but oh well.
1157 - Thinking O'Shea should be a marginal favourite against Usher, 60/40 or something like that. Will check a line.
1200 - Mixed pricing on Usher/O'Shea. 365 has John at 11/10, which is tempting, while Ladbrokes has Usher at 11/8?
1202 - Going to take that 365 price small, 0.1u O'Shea 11/10.
1206 - Sportradar now at least working for the Wenig game, but still nothing for the first two matches. May be a case of needing to find someone having uploaded the stream and doing shit manually which in 2023 is unacceptable.
1214 - That's a strong showing from Gary Davey. Against someone like Mol next round, it's got to be worth a flyer assuming a reasonable price?
1218 - Someone from Dart Connect saying there's "technical issues". Yeah, right, other boards are working fine? Just going to check Zonneveld/Brown projections now.
1220 - Not being offered much of anything on Davey, only seeing 365 right now, but that's 13/8. Was hoping for better than 2/1. Zonneveld is nearly a play with 365 not being able to separate them, just waiting to see if another book will give us odds against which I'd go with at the current projections.
1221 - Also, Littler 6-0 on debut, nice, was expecting the win but that's impressive.
1222 - Yeah, doubt we're going to see better on Davey or Zonneveld. Laddies have Niels at around 4/6, which is lol.
1229 - Few games which are mostly guesses here based on sample size - Vandenbogaerde and Littler both 60/40 favourites, Killington a bit more at 65/35?
1233 - What a weird mix of games to just make notes on - de Zwaan hitting three legs of twelve or better, while Monk and Andersen couldn't find a fifteen between them in a game that went the distance!
1234 - Thoughts on their next matches - Monk should be a solid favourite versus Knops, 70/30 is an estimate. de Zwaan/Nentjes projects with Geert being a small favourite, but with Jeffrey looking on form I'm going to adjust that to a pure flip.
1237 - Tacking on another small bet, 0.1u Killington evs, that's on 365, other places have it more like 4/6 so locking this in. The Klose and JdZ matches look accurately priced, still looking at Littler and Monk's games.
1239 - Also going small with 0.1u Littler 5/4 on Ladbrokes, think he should be the favourite in this one.
1248 - Last few round one games just finishing up now, so starting to look ahead to round three ties as and when we get knowledge.
1252 - There are a few second round games which I've not looked at in detail, but nothing is jumping off the coupon as being worthy of investigation or a bet right now.
1259 - Fantastic showing from Veenstra, first man through to round three. Dan Read making a great comeback effort in the last first rounder going on.
1301 - Veenstra against Rowby in round three should be good. Thinking Richard should be a favourite in this one, but with Rowby's 2022, I don't know if he will be. One to monitor.
1307 - Wilson with the least convincing whitewash of all time. Youth shows out over experience with Rafferty beating Burness, upcoming last 96 tie with Meikle should be good, although one which I think Ryan ought to take 60/40.
1310 - Meikle right where I'd expect him to be in prices. Veenstra is a slight dog in the market but not long enough to get excited about.
1319 - Montgomery through after a tight one with Warner, now plays Whitlock where he should be a 3-1 dog. Also not sure why Kenny is going off at 11/10 against Heneghan? Sure, he averaged lower, but I don't think he's the lesser player?
1321 - Three bets in play right now with Martinez, O'Shea and van Veen just needing to hold at most three legs in any respective match for a win.
1322 - Actually, make that four, as Wilkinson's just under way against Slevin.
1323 - That seemed to immediately bok Martinez, as Webster breaks and is throwing in the decider.
1331 - Urgh, O'Shea got broken in the decider, that's a real kick in the teeth. Going to check if any more round three games can be bet.
1334 - Three of interest - van Veen against Williams ought to be spectacular, Jim a small favourite, Doets against Szaganski shouldn't be too bad, Kevin a bit more than 60% but not two in three, while Evans against Usher is projecting huge for Ricky but I'm not sure that's accurate given Graham's sample size.
1337 - Also had Mansell/Suljovic just confirmed, which I actually have as too close to call. 0.25u 4/5 Doets on 365 placed.
1341 - Couple more just added on 365 - 0.1u Mansell 2/1 against Suljovic, and 0.1u Evans 4/5 against Usher.
1344 - Two more bets just finalised, Wilkinson gave it a good shot against Slevin but couldn't quite get home, while Littler looked even better than in round one with a 6-2 win over Rusty, so another small incremental gain. Ever so slightly up so far.
1350 - Another few of games to look at - Barry is about a 70/30 favourite against Mol, would have expected more, but I guess not, is showing at 4/9, 2/5 etc which seems fine, then Littler/Edhouse, limited data on Luke but the bookies not being able to split them seems fine. Williams/Jansen being a pick'em also seems fine, only places that are edging towards either player are doing so towards Lewy which looks right to me.
1355 - Killington off to a good start for one of our bets, up 3-0, while Menzies gets us more in the back and now plays Ian White in a true 50/50 game next.
1404 - Menzies/White showing as a flip in the one book I'm seeing. Read/Lukeman could be interesting, Dan's not played badly and Lukeman might be overvalued. Scutt/Beaton also appears close, although Steve is playing excellent darts so might need a big price on Connor.
1406 - Killington is through and might be sneaky value, Madars I'm thinking is almost certainly going to be overrated once I see a line.
1407 - Klaasen safely through. Can't get better than 6/4 on Scutt so scratch that idea.
1410 - Looks like the one book I'm seeing lines on, we can get north of 2/1 on both Read and Killington. Kind of tempting at that price already, but going to wait and see if another book offers better.
1414 - Superb win for Sedlacek. Any questions about whether his 2022 form was temporary are gone with that one. Still waiting on an opponent.
1418 - Ultra rough game for Matt Campbell. He gets through to an intriguing game with Jeff Smith, but game must be upped dramatically in that one.
1421 - Two long shots added, 0.1u Killington 11/5 against Razma and 0.1u Read 11/5 against Lukeman. These should both be closer, George is 13/8 on Laddies in comparison, struggling to see anyone else pricing up the Lukeman game. Scott Williams against Jelle Klaasen seems about right to me.
1424 - Knops with a solid 6-0 win in the bank, may temper thoughts about lumping on Slevin as a result.
1428 - Just a handful of stragglers left - Burnett is done, Klose is playing, Brown and Gurney are just starting now, then that'll be the last of the round 3 ties done to look at.
1453 - No further round 3 bets, nothing of interest has appeared, so just keeping tabs on any notable wins from here on out.
1454 - That is unless Darius is rated far too closely to Zonneveld, who's just completed our round 3 lineup.

Thursday 2 March 2023

UK Open round 1 tips and bets

Going to go through all of these. Rounds 2/3 I will work out later this evening - I will probably prioritise those matchups that are already known and hence already have lines in a smaller post first, then get up thoughts on the remainder after (which naturally might be fairly vague given many matches have up to eight different players in them, hence a potential sixteen permutations of how it might turn out). As with previous years, tomorrow morning I will open up a live post with key thoughts and in-running new bets, do keep it open in a tab and check it occasionally.

Littler/Fullwell - Feel this is close to a bet on Luke despite the market having him as a strong favourite, Nick's just not been playing that well. That said, Nick's not going to give away a great deal cheaply so I can pass this one easily enough at the market price.
van Veen/Owen - We've got a fair bit of good data on this, and it leans towards a no bet. Seeing 62/38 for van Veen, Owen is competent enough that this isn't going to be a one way show despite how highly I rate Gian. 8/11 just doesn't appeal.
Wenig/de Zwaan - Another decent data size game, and another that I feel seems close enough to correct. I've got Jeffrey 55/45, we can get Lukas at a little bit better than what I'd consider a fair line but clearly not enough to consider a punt.
van der Velde/Claydon - Yet more games where we've got good data, and perhaps counter intuitively, Jurjen is favoured in the projections a bit better than 60/40. The market seems close to correct on that basis, another easy one to avoid.
Monk/Andersen - We've not got too much data on Monk, a lot of what we've got on Andersen might be a little underrated. We can get 5/2 on Andersen, which is in the sort of ballpark where, if not for Monk having a decent showing last weekend, I'd be tempted, but I'll take a wide berth here.
Heneghan/Lee - This is a "how good is Heneghan really" sort of question, as well as a "has Lee got better than 2018" question. I'm thinking in terms of the second question it can't be no, and he's got to be able to play better than what he showed in the event last time to have won two qualifiers. 0.1u Lee 3/1, this could spectacularly backfire but I think risk/reward this is fine.
Labre/Klose - Think there's enough evidence here that Klose is not only the better player, he's also playing better right now. Maybe not by a huge deal, so I'll keep the sizing small, but 0.1u Klose 20/21
Jenkins/Warner - Warner seems slightly better right now. Warner is priced accordingly. Temptation to go with Andy based on far superior big match experience is there, but I'll shy away from doing so.
Girvan/Zonneveld - Got a fair bit on both these, and Nathan's not actually that big an underdog. Call it slightly more than 55/45 in Niels' favour. There's a fair bit of a differential between that thought and the actual price, so 0.25u Girvan 2/1.
Goffin/Knops - Weird tie between two brand new card holders who could do with a big win like this. I'm going to go 0.25u Knops 8/11, he seems better, I'm not sure quite so much better given limited sample sizes, but I think it's probably enough that I can take this punt and it's at least not bed.
Cole/van der Wal - Had a look at the line and saw Jitse at 7/4 and thought "is he really that much worse, and is it worth a play" - after further review, he is, and it isn't.
Moston/Neyens - Think this is worth going with Kenny here, 0.25u Neyens 8/13, Jim is steadily improving but looks a fair bit behind where Neyens is at right now, coupled with a clear differential in big game experience I think we can go with Kenny at this price with a fair bit of confidence.
Davey/Evans - Lee's 1/4, if I had anything whatsoever on Gary I could give a better assessment, but I don't, for a complete random it seems the line is fine?
Taylor/Webster - Market has this as a flip. I'm not quite sure why, I had this as fairly close in power rankings but there looks to be a clear tier break and Darren is on the right side of it. 0.25u Webster 10/11, experience will show here I think.
White/Roelofs - How much confidence do we have in Owen? Not a huge amount, but enough that I don't want to be taking a flyer on Stuart at barely better than 2/1. He's got chances but I'd need to see more in terms of price.
Klaasen/Payne - Going to be taking Jelle in this one, 0.1u Klaasen 8/11, I'm only going cautiously on account of a lack of data on Payne and that it's not the greatest of prices, Jelle's been doing great work in terms of getting the match practice and getting the results in it, but Josh is a huge wildcard here.
Richardson/Tricole - Feels like this could easily have been a WDF world quarter at some point recently. Thibault's the favourite, I think he's better but not by a huge deal, really don't know where James' game is at so maybe form based we should take Tricole?
Bialecki/Richardson - Sebastian seems a fair bit better than Joshua at this stage, and has shown great things in this event previously. Is it enough to start punting at 1/2? Feels like it's close, but I'll pass on it.
Nentjes/Kist - Another game that's priced 60/40, this one in favour of Geert, it feels intuitively right, projections based on what Christian has done (which isn't terrible in terms of sample size) are bang on that. Just kind of getting an inkling feeling with Kist having had a good CT weekend that it ought to be the play. But I won't be tempted.
Read/Loose - Read should be comfortable here, but he's 2/5, which isn't particularly interesting, Dan's better but Callum is not a complete random so should be able to keep this respectable.
Hall/Sparidaans - Market's favouring Graham by a small amount, this seems fine to me, on limited data on both I've got him ahead by a small margin.
Sedlacek/Lane - 0.25u Sedlacek 1/5, not going crazy given the short price and Karel not jumping out of the blocks in 2023, but this looks like a complete mismatch.
Grant/Usher - 0.25u Usher 1/4, while I'm not as sold on Graham as I am in the bet for Karel above, Usher appears extremely competent and the 2023 numbers are fine, Noel is a complete random so I can't expect him to put up too much resistance - although I could easily be proven wrong.
Flynn/Wynn - Was tempted to say go with a flyer on Wynn despite knowing very little on him given Michael's not been putting up fantastic stats from where we have seen him, but we can't even get 2/1 on Jon which seems a bit ridiculous. I'm almost wondering if taking the 4/9 is actually the smart play!
Rupprecht/Kenny - Market can't separate the two for all intents and purposes, but I'm going to take a small punt here, 0.1u Kenny evs, as stated in the super brief power rankings post Kenny has the habit of getting things done when it matters, he's actually scoring a bit better as well. Pascal's got all the potential in the world, but for the here and now I'll take Nick.
McEwan/Lauby - Got enough data here to make the master computer seem worthwhile, and it likes Jim. Don't think there's a huge differential between the two, Spreadex actually has Jim odds against which I'd probably take but that's a bit of a random book, so nothing here.
Slevin/Kuivenhoven - It's so, so tempting to go with the rookie who's been hyped by many, myself included. But Maik's the better player, has the stage experience, has the experience full stop, so will go small, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 10/11, almost half want this one to lose but I'm just going to go with the disciplined play.
van Trijp/Holt - Danny's nearly 1/3, that doesn't seem unfair, hard to rag on players coming through the the Dev Tour route, but DvT is a substantially better player as of right now.
Gurney/Pilgrim - Darryl's a similarly priced favourite. Looking at the pure numbers, that doesn't seem unfair.
Burton/Smith-Neale - Market has these two really close, Adam's put up better numbers in my stats, but that's real short data so I'm not sure what weight to put into it, Stephen just feels the better player all round over a sustained period. As Burton is only 11/10, I think it's an easy one to say "let's just avoid it", but wouldn't be surprised to find myself be wrong on this one.

That's all for now, I'll try to get the fixed round 2/3 games out later this evening.