Friday 24 March 2023

ET2 round 1 bets

Going to go through in running order:

O'Connor/Kantele - Maybe this is slightly undervaluing Marko? Sure, Willie's the better player, but I don't know if he's really a player that's guaranteed to win this more than three times out of four. 10/3 isn't quite enough for me to bite, but it's definitely not worth taking Willie in this one.

Joyce/Wattimena - Market has this pretty much a flip. I think that's enough for me to avoid it, if anything the value is on 10/11 Ryan, but it's extremely marginal and tempered by Jermaine's form.

Dolan/Lennon - Another one the market has correct with Brendan being slightly favoured. Easy pass, this one should be close.

Ratajski/Brooks - They're getting good these bookies, pricing Krzysztof at 4/11. That's not giving nearly long enough for me to take a look at Bradley.

Nentjes/Pietreczko - Nearly thinking about taking Geert here. Think this one is going to be extremely close on year long form, but Pikachu's been playing a bit better more recently and 11/8 isn't really enough for me to fly in.

Eidams/van der Velde - Jurjen is a bit more odds on than I thought, and I think he's improved his game just enough that we can avoid taking Rene just out of general principle at about 5/2. Wouldn't surprise me if this is closer than the market suggests, but I can't see Eidams getting over the line.

de Sousa/Evetts - Seems to be priced about correctly with Ted at just over 2/1. No betting interest here.

Woodhouse/Boulton - Luke's only a small favourite at 8/11. I think that's definitely worth considering, I'd have priced this at nearer 4/7, maybe 8/15 (assuming no vig), he's playing that well. It's not quite the edge, but definitely don't hate a small play.

Williams/Henderson - Jim's shorter than 1/2, which surprised me a little, either they're down on Hendo or they've caught up to the fact that Jim's actually pretty good at this game. Line seems fine to me.

Smith/Rupprecht - They're offering nearly enough on Pascal that we can take a small nibble here. 9/2 looks to be a little too long, especially for someone on home soil, but it is a big stage debut which will temper expectations a tad, and Ross is probably playing a little bit better than his longer form suggests right now, so I'll step away from the betting slip.

Meikle/Kurz - Can we take Nico in this one? We're definitely not taking Meikle at shorter than 2/5, but will Kurz get home often enough? I'd really liked to have seen Kurz at last weekend's Challenge Tour to give us a clue, but we don't get that, I kind of think we should stab at the price offered as we know Nico's top game is pretty solid and Ryan isn't that unbeatable a player, but I won't. Just looked back at the quali, he really wasn't doing enough for me.

Kuivenhoven/Dobey - Going to take a first stab here, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 12/5, he seems a fair bit better than the market suggests, and we've got Chris making a real quick turnaround, actually having played two games last night, so there's enough reason to think he might not be at 100% in terms of freshness.

van Barneveld/Sebesta - 10/1 is a big number in a two horse race but honestly it seems fine.

Hempel/Wade - Going to take another flyer here, 0.1u Hempel 3/1, Wade's good but Hempel is not bad, and the tournament is literally in his backyard. Easy play.

Clemens/White - Seems a close enough game to ignore. White's the slight dog but I think that's understandable given Clemens is improving and White is lacking form. Easy enough pass for me.

Bunting/Gurney - Another good close game late. Market shades towards Bunting, so do we, no bet.

So just the two small underdog plays today. Oh well.

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