Saturday 4 March 2023

Round 5 bets

Solid evening session, picked up another half a unit, pity that Littler and de Decker couldn't convert what were pretty good chances to win their games, but at the same time Dolan had no business winning his game against van der Voort, so we won't be too greedy and disappointed that it wasn't a bigger day. Getting towards the business end of things now, sixteen round five ties to look at, let's go:

Gawlas/Doets - Can't be overstated how big a game this is for both, plenty of reasonable draws to get in the next round which would put them in a major quarter final. Actually seeing these fairly close with Kevin having about a 5-6% edge, the market's actually shading things towards Gawlas, it's not quite enough to bet it (can only see Hills at 6/5), a bit longer and I'd go with it.

Burnett/Evetts - Same here, this would really help both hugely in their race to save tour cards, I'm seeing it about 60/40 in favour of Richie, that's enough for me, 0.25u Burnett evs

O'Connor/Noppert - Willie got a really easy run while Danny was given a good test by Williams who had a decent chance late on to force it all the way, Danny should be comfortable here, 70/30 as I see it, he's just shorter than 2/1 on which looks just fine.

Price/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was forced all the way by Jansen, while Gerwyn wasn't really tested but still looked in great form, Price looks way too good here, 1/6 might actually be the tiniest of values but with JdZ looking a little bit resurgent I'm happy to call it correct.

Lewis/Schindler - Adie got a comfortable win against Campbell, Schindler was pushed a bit more by Whitlock but never really looked in any danger. Coinflip for me, bookies can't split them either, next.

Huybrechts/Anderson - Kim needed to get a comeback to see off de Decker, while Ando was always a little bit too good for Wade who'll plummet in the official rankings now. The data model is all over Anderson, even just shorter than 1/2 looks like it might easily be a good play, if he plays like he did last night it will be, but I'll factor in some percent for Kim being in the winners circle recently and probably playing better than historical stats and just about say no to a Gary bet, which might look real silly in a few hours.

Woodhouse/Gilding - Good run for Luke having eliminated Josh Rock and then looking really good in a one-sided rout of Jelle Klaasen, while Andrew's apparently reached this stage for the first time since his semi run. Ooh. Numbers are saying 60/40 Gilding, he's 4/5, with those numbers taking into account that Gilding was pretty good this time last year and maybe not so much of late, and also factoring in Luke looking extremely good yesterday, I'm happy to call this a clear no bet.

Smith/Humphries - Michael was too good for Ian White, while Luke needed every leg to defeat Damon Heta and keep hopes of a first major alive, which he's going to have to do the hard way it seems, if it is this weekend. The numbers for these seem really, really close, Michael's better but only fractionally, we're getting close to the price where I'd want to bet on Luke, but I'd need slightly longer than 6/4 and it's not there, at least not on the exchanges.

Dobey/Dolan - Brendan as mentioned needed a big comeback to survive, while Dobey came through a tough opponent in Ryan Searle with a solid average. Not quite 60/40, but Chris is favoured for me here, Dolan's getting up close to 5/2 which seems marginal in terms of a play, I won't but I wouldn't be lumping on the PL star here. Not even close.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk was given a tough test by Ratajski as expected, while Nathan was given an even tougher test by Soutar, which maybe wasn't quite so expected but it's what happened, maybe a chance for Dirk to make a statement "why is he in the Premier League" game? 65/35 in favour of Dirk for me, why the market is so close, I don't know, 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11

Cullen/Sedlacek - Joe was too good for Slevin as we thought but Dylan hung around for some time, while Karel blitzed Suljovic although the numbers seemed fairly even. Looks like Joe is clearly favoured, just shy of 70/30 but better than 2-1, market has it a bit further but not with the edge to consider playing Sedlacek as an underdog flyer, even with him looking superb in the earlier rounds.

Kleermaker/van Gerwen - Michael had to navigate a really tough draw in Chisnall but did, Kleermaker averaged less than Killington but still won 10-6, ok then. This is unbelievably lopsided, 1/10 actually isn't a losing play, that's how favoured I'm projecting MvG to be.

Clayton/de Sousa - Jonny got a bastard of a draw in Ross Smith and needed every leg to get over the line, while Jose got a more comfortable opponent in Labanauskas, who kept it surprisingly close but JdS moves on regardless. Clayton's better, but not by as much as you might think, maybe about 15% better. Call it a touch more given his red hot start to the season if you want. At 2/1, de Sousa is of minor interest but backing against Clayton right now is a bit dangerous, would have liked to have seen a bit more in round four to consider it. Jonny doesn't seem a good acca bet though.

King/van den Bergh - Mervyn got through an unremarkable game with Keane Barry, while Dimitri took a match of losing world semi finalists a little bit more comfortably than many thought. Dimitri should be too strong here, getting up close to 65% chances, some of the prices for King are getting close to where I'd consider a small flyer, but it's not quite enough for me.

Beaton/Cross - Steve continues a great vein of form and an 80 average from Rowby never threatened, while Rob got the deciding leg win over Barney. I'd expect Rob to win this 80% of the time just on pure numbers over the year and discounting form, so maybe with Cross being undervalued generally and Steve being a fan favourite who is playing well, there's have been a play. But Rob's shorter than 1/3 at best, so there isn't.

Wright/Rydz - Peter needed every leg to scrape through a deceptively tough draw against Bunting, while Callan looked probably the best he has done for a while in eliminating a close opponent in the rankings in Daryl Gurney. Wright should have too much here, I'd price it as 2/5, it's actually slightly tighter in the markets which does surprise me a touch (although Peter's awful PL form might be a factor in that), but there is not the sort of value to seriously think about taking Wright here.

That's your lot, expect me back after full times or there abouts with last sixteen thoughts.

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