Friday 3 March 2023

UK Open Friday live post

As previous, I'll edit this post in running as and when I've got stuff to say. Working on known round two games now.

Known round two games:

Jansen/Brooks - Rates as a real coin toss, maybe Brooks slightly favoured. Jansen's slightly odds against so market tends to agree.
van Dongen/Doets - Kevin's the better player here, should win this two times out of three. Think there's enough value to go small on this one, 0.1u Doets 4/6, a bit better is available on the exchanges and some random bookies so go with that if you like.
Perales/Mansell - Seems kind of the same as the above. Mickey's favoured 65/35 in my eyes. There's a couple of random bookies that are offering a bit better than 4/6, would probably fire at 8/11 but that sort of price isn't generally available.
Peters/Wilson - Another 2-1 sort of game with James being favoured. Market is spot on.
Veenstra/Clark - Stats actually have Jamie surprisingly close in this one, having as much as a 45% chance on this one. This doesn't feel intuitively right and Richard's sample size is a little small, so I'm going to ignore the numbers despite better than 2/1 being available.
Burness/Rafferty - Yet more 2-1 games, Nathan's favoured. He's 4/7 compared to 7/4 for Kevin, so happy enough to ignore this one.
Szaganski/Kciuk - Back to back local derbies from countries which don't seem an obvious call for one, feels like Kciuk has been the consistently better player but he only projects at 55/45, market seems to have picked up on this one with a paltry 13/10 being the best you can get on Radek which clearly isn't worth it.
Scutt/Hendriks - Scutt is clearly better here, this is 3-1 territory. Enough to go small here - 0.1u Scutt 1/2, slightly better is available on rando sites and exchanges, think if you were to get better than 4/7 you can upgrade unit size.

Known round three games:

Lewis/Murnan - Adie should have this easily enough, Joe's not drawing dead but this is 70/30 territory. Murnan's right in the middle of 2/1 and 3/1 so no bet here.
Krcmar/Wattimena - Tough one to read, Jermaine's improving while Boris has often struggled in big events compared to the floor, yet the numbers say 55/45 Krcmar. Slightly odds against seems worth the stab to me, 0.1u Krcmar 11/10, that Jermaine lost to Springer last weekend gives me an indication that while he's playing better, conversion when it counts might still be a small factor.
Joyce/de Decker - Ryan's not been particularly underperforming, but de Decker is just getting continually better and rates as a 60/40 favourite to me. Coralbrokes give odds against, so while there is a wee bit of a consistency issue in Mike's game, it is being ironed out, 0.25u de Decker 11/10.
Kleermaker/Lennon - Important game for both, perhaps more for Steve. Lennon is playing the far better darts and should grab this two times in three. The market has it a little closer, which I can understand, but not to the sort of better than 4/6 line where I'd start with a small stab like with Doets in the previous round.
Rock/Woodhouse - Shame this one's come up early, Luke's clearly capable of getting to something like the last 32 or possibly further with a competent draw, and Josh can't like this draw too much. Obviously Rock is favoured, 70/30 for me. Market has it ever so slightly more one sided but not enough value to bet Woody here.
Hempel/Hughes - Jamie's resurgent and while Florian's not playing bad darts, Hughes ought to take this one, yet another game that projects about 65/35. Market is only slightly better than 1/2 on Hughes in some places so no value to be had.
O'Connor/Petersen - Oddly Devon's actually projecting at only a 40/60 dog, but his winning legs aren't actually too far behind Willie's. The losing legs are further off, so consistency is a factor. 12/5 on Devon I suppose isn't an awful play, but I can't really go against Willie in this venue, can't see him gifting Petersen the chances he will likely need.

1101 - We're under way, was a bit worried when all the games warming up briefly disappeared off Dart Connect, but must just have been a standard tournament thing I guess.
1104 - Actually noticed we've got four bets in play immediately, and they've all taken the first leg, will take that for now.
1110 - Claydon casually averaging 110 and being 3-0 down is a thing.
1112 - Now he wins a leg and the average drops eight points. Such a silly statistic.
1116 - Robbie Knops the first two get one away from a win, Adam Warner joins him right after.
1127 - Two up and two down on the bets from the first round of boards 3-8, small profit booked. Daniel Lee flier didn't work and Neyens was very disappointing, but Knops and Webster got the job done. Jurjen looked very good. Looking at four now known round two games now.
1130 - Montgomery/Warner feels too close to call. On the basis of what we saw from Jurjen, his game with Ronny Huybrechts seems the same. Menzies should be far, far too strong for Moston, hard to quantify given limited data on Jim but anything better than 1/3 might be a play. Webster/Martinez seems a bit better than 60/40 in favour of the Spaniard. Checking for lines now.
1133 - Two bets immediately taken on 365, 0.25u Menzies 2/5 and 0.25u Martinez 11/8.
1134 - Other two games we know are priced alright at a first glance. Looks like van Veen got through his opener, just waiting to have the stats come through on Dart Connect.
1135 - Kuivenhoven bet looks in real trouble, down four zip and averaging under 80 against Slevin in three figures, ouch.
1137 - That said, also got Kenny and Usher in the running right now, Kenny's up 3-1 with a worse average, while Usher is 2-2 but averaging 10 points higher than the qualifier. Also seeing Hall, Nentjes and Gurney doing fine so far.
1139 - van Veen/Owen had better come through on Dart Connect, as sportradar have their first fuckup of the year, no data at all. Useless.
1145 - They're also not even trying for the Richardson/Tricole game. This is not good and I hope DC are at least watching the stream, rather than just going to copy from sportradar after the event.
1150 - Rupprecht forced a decider, not great. Looking at van Veen as 65/35 against Waites, Slevin only having a small edge versus Wilkinson, and Hall solid 70/30 over Banks, although that's only an estimation.
1152 - Another couple of round two bets, 0.1u Wilkinson 2/1 against Slevin, this is a bit of a flyer but price seems OK, also 0.25u van Veen 10/11 versus Waites. Would really have liked to see the stats, but oh well.
1157 - Thinking O'Shea should be a marginal favourite against Usher, 60/40 or something like that. Will check a line.
1200 - Mixed pricing on Usher/O'Shea. 365 has John at 11/10, which is tempting, while Ladbrokes has Usher at 11/8?
1202 - Going to take that 365 price small, 0.1u O'Shea 11/10.
1206 - Sportradar now at least working for the Wenig game, but still nothing for the first two matches. May be a case of needing to find someone having uploaded the stream and doing shit manually which in 2023 is unacceptable.
1214 - That's a strong showing from Gary Davey. Against someone like Mol next round, it's got to be worth a flyer assuming a reasonable price?
1218 - Someone from Dart Connect saying there's "technical issues". Yeah, right, other boards are working fine? Just going to check Zonneveld/Brown projections now.
1220 - Not being offered much of anything on Davey, only seeing 365 right now, but that's 13/8. Was hoping for better than 2/1. Zonneveld is nearly a play with 365 not being able to separate them, just waiting to see if another book will give us odds against which I'd go with at the current projections.
1221 - Also, Littler 6-0 on debut, nice, was expecting the win but that's impressive.
1222 - Yeah, doubt we're going to see better on Davey or Zonneveld. Laddies have Niels at around 4/6, which is lol.
1229 - Few games which are mostly guesses here based on sample size - Vandenbogaerde and Littler both 60/40 favourites, Killington a bit more at 65/35?
1233 - What a weird mix of games to just make notes on - de Zwaan hitting three legs of twelve or better, while Monk and Andersen couldn't find a fifteen between them in a game that went the distance!
1234 - Thoughts on their next matches - Monk should be a solid favourite versus Knops, 70/30 is an estimate. de Zwaan/Nentjes projects with Geert being a small favourite, but with Jeffrey looking on form I'm going to adjust that to a pure flip.
1237 - Tacking on another small bet, 0.1u Killington evs, that's on 365, other places have it more like 4/6 so locking this in. The Klose and JdZ matches look accurately priced, still looking at Littler and Monk's games.
1239 - Also going small with 0.1u Littler 5/4 on Ladbrokes, think he should be the favourite in this one.
1248 - Last few round one games just finishing up now, so starting to look ahead to round three ties as and when we get knowledge.
1252 - There are a few second round games which I've not looked at in detail, but nothing is jumping off the coupon as being worthy of investigation or a bet right now.
1259 - Fantastic showing from Veenstra, first man through to round three. Dan Read making a great comeback effort in the last first rounder going on.
1301 - Veenstra against Rowby in round three should be good. Thinking Richard should be a favourite in this one, but with Rowby's 2022, I don't know if he will be. One to monitor.
1307 - Wilson with the least convincing whitewash of all time. Youth shows out over experience with Rafferty beating Burness, upcoming last 96 tie with Meikle should be good, although one which I think Ryan ought to take 60/40.
1310 - Meikle right where I'd expect him to be in prices. Veenstra is a slight dog in the market but not long enough to get excited about.
1319 - Montgomery through after a tight one with Warner, now plays Whitlock where he should be a 3-1 dog. Also not sure why Kenny is going off at 11/10 against Heneghan? Sure, he averaged lower, but I don't think he's the lesser player?
1321 - Three bets in play right now with Martinez, O'Shea and van Veen just needing to hold at most three legs in any respective match for a win.
1322 - Actually, make that four, as Wilkinson's just under way against Slevin.
1323 - That seemed to immediately bok Martinez, as Webster breaks and is throwing in the decider.
1331 - Urgh, O'Shea got broken in the decider, that's a real kick in the teeth. Going to check if any more round three games can be bet.
1334 - Three of interest - van Veen against Williams ought to be spectacular, Jim a small favourite, Doets against Szaganski shouldn't be too bad, Kevin a bit more than 60% but not two in three, while Evans against Usher is projecting huge for Ricky but I'm not sure that's accurate given Graham's sample size.
1337 - Also had Mansell/Suljovic just confirmed, which I actually have as too close to call. 0.25u 4/5 Doets on 365 placed.
1341 - Couple more just added on 365 - 0.1u Mansell 2/1 against Suljovic, and 0.1u Evans 4/5 against Usher.
1344 - Two more bets just finalised, Wilkinson gave it a good shot against Slevin but couldn't quite get home, while Littler looked even better than in round one with a 6-2 win over Rusty, so another small incremental gain. Ever so slightly up so far.
1350 - Another few of games to look at - Barry is about a 70/30 favourite against Mol, would have expected more, but I guess not, is showing at 4/9, 2/5 etc which seems fine, then Littler/Edhouse, limited data on Luke but the bookies not being able to split them seems fine. Williams/Jansen being a pick'em also seems fine, only places that are edging towards either player are doing so towards Lewy which looks right to me.
1355 - Killington off to a good start for one of our bets, up 3-0, while Menzies gets us more in the back and now plays Ian White in a true 50/50 game next.
1404 - Menzies/White showing as a flip in the one book I'm seeing. Read/Lukeman could be interesting, Dan's not played badly and Lukeman might be overvalued. Scutt/Beaton also appears close, although Steve is playing excellent darts so might need a big price on Connor.
1406 - Killington is through and might be sneaky value, Madars I'm thinking is almost certainly going to be overrated once I see a line.
1407 - Klaasen safely through. Can't get better than 6/4 on Scutt so scratch that idea.
1410 - Looks like the one book I'm seeing lines on, we can get north of 2/1 on both Read and Killington. Kind of tempting at that price already, but going to wait and see if another book offers better.
1414 - Superb win for Sedlacek. Any questions about whether his 2022 form was temporary are gone with that one. Still waiting on an opponent.
1418 - Ultra rough game for Matt Campbell. He gets through to an intriguing game with Jeff Smith, but game must be upped dramatically in that one.
1421 - Two long shots added, 0.1u Killington 11/5 against Razma and 0.1u Read 11/5 against Lukeman. These should both be closer, George is 13/8 on Laddies in comparison, struggling to see anyone else pricing up the Lukeman game. Scott Williams against Jelle Klaasen seems about right to me.
1424 - Knops with a solid 6-0 win in the bank, may temper thoughts about lumping on Slevin as a result.
1428 - Just a handful of stragglers left - Burnett is done, Klose is playing, Brown and Gurney are just starting now, then that'll be the last of the round 3 ties done to look at.
1453 - No further round 3 bets, nothing of interest has appeared, so just keeping tabs on any notable wins from here on out.
1454 - That is unless Darius is rated far too closely to Zonneveld, who's just completed our round 3 lineup.

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