Thursday 23 March 2023

ET2 draw thoughts

Been away for a little bit, so have missed some Pro Tours, the key notes being that Dirk's continuing to make a top ten case, MvG is still good, Smudger is showing that major bink isn't a fluke, and Ando's going nowhere. Also good to see Rock getting to a final, Ratajski adding on further Pro Tour money, and Searle consolidating a very good start. But the big thing (other than World Series to Poland omg) is it's another Euro Tour weekend. Let's look through the draw:

Chisnall v Williams/Henderson - Been good to see Hendo getting results on the Challenge Tour this past weekend, but that he's draw Jim, who rates to win around two out of three games, is kind of unfortunate. That Jim would then play Dave, who binked the first of these and is playing very well, is unfortunate again, as Williams is probably about a 2-1 dog the other way. Oof.

Noppert v Kuivenhoven/Dobey - Quick turn around for Chris after tonight's Premier League, as such it might be a little bit of a subdued performance maybe? He is on the evening session at least, so maybe Maik winning about 38% could be increased a touch. If Chris does get through, a nice opponent in Noppert will be next, and Danny ought to be a small favourite.

Heta v Woodhouse/Boulton - Luke's had a very good start to the year, probably playing the best he's done for quite some time, and he comes up against Boulton, who's already got a Challenge Tour in the bank this year so can't be playing too badly himself. Probably Luke by 60-65%, lean towards the top end on form. Damon probably wouldn't be too different a favourite if Woodhouse was to come through.

Clayton v Meikle/Kurz - Feels like it's been forever since we've seen Nico, indeed we only have ten legs in the past year on him. Meikle's had maybe a slightly slow start to the year, but still should be favoured - hard to quantify, but feel like another 2-1 sort of game, maybe slightly more in Ryan's favour, isn't unfair. Clayton's off to a good start this year and probably should take the second round game about 70% of the time.

Smith v Eidams/van der Velde - Speaking of Germans we've not seen for a while, here's Eidams, who we have pretty much the same amount of data on as Kurz. And it's a bit worse to go along with it. Jurjen's had a few OK results of late and should be comfortable, but hugely outclassed by Smith with like a 85/15 clip.

Price v Ratajski/Brooks - Bradley had a real good run in a recent Pro Tour, but so did Ratajski, who lost at the same semi stage as Brooks did (and went one better the day after). Seems a clear Pole game this, 75% or more, Gerwyn could kind of do with a run here given he's now out of the seedings for these going forwards, and this isn't an easy draw - not even 65% if he was to play Ratajski in round two.

van Gerwen v van Barneveld/Sebesta - Filip hasn't looked brilliant in the limited times we've seen him, and Barney should be way too strong here, so let's go straight to round two. Barney's still got enough about him that he might nick this one time in three.

van den Bergh v Hempel/Wade - Would be kind of a useful win for both here, James to arrest a slide down the rankings after his UK Open win dropped off, and Florian to try to solidify a tour card position which is in no way certain going forward. Wade appears favoured by nearly two in three, and he ought to be fairly live against Dimi, who's looked OK in spots but mostly in unranked stuff, only having just over a 60% win chance against James.

Wright v Nentjes/Pietreczko - Good clash between two up and comers, Geert's been around for a bit longer but Ricardo's probably had a little bit better in terms of results, particularly in the last six months. Seeing this as too close to call, and seeing Wright as an overwhelming favourite against either opponent.

Searle v Bunting/Gurney - Very nice section here, Daryl's looked pretty decent this season but Stephen's looked good for some time, and rates as a 60/40 favourite in the opening round. Searle's had an excellent start in terms of results so far this season with three finals, but longer form gives him only just the right side of a coinflip against Bunting.

Cross v Joyce/Wattimena - Both first round players have been kind of samey in results, but Joyce has been a bit better in terms of performances, call him a 60/40 favourite, maybe tone it down slightly as we know Jermaine's better games have been waited to more recently. Rob maintains a high level game and ought to take round two approaching two times out of three.

Schindler v O'Connor/Kantele - Willie has kind of been under the radar for a while, but should have enough for Kantele, despite him having a real good start to the year with a 2/4 record in binking SDC titles. Willie against Martin ought to be moderately close, Schindler's been the better player but we're only talking 60/40 here.

van Duijvenbode v de Sousa/Evetts - Jose's trying to stay relevant in the top sixteen picture, and getting back up into the seeds would be one way to do this - first he'd have to come past Ted, who's been a bit meh for a while but has flashed a little bit in 2023. Still easily Jose though, bit more than 70/30, but whoever comes through has the unfortunate draw of one of the most in form players now in Dirk, who's easily 60/40 against de Sousa.

Cullen v Smith/Rupprecht - Will be interesting to see how Pascal does, but he's got a super tough draw in Ross, who ought to be a near 3-1 favourite. Smith against Cullen ought to be a really fun matchup, true flip.

Humphries v Dolan/Lennon - Good derby in round one, Brendan's maybe tailed off form a bit, while Lennon needs results more than Brendan does and isn't playing badly at all. Seems really close, Dolan maybe with a tiny edge, but Luke should be too good for either of these, neither having as much as a one in three chance.

Rock v Clemens/White - Gabriel will look to continue to climb the rankings against Ian, who will want to put an awful 2022 behind him as soon as possible. Appears a real close game, and the winner will face Rock, who's in the seedings here for the first time. Rock should be a bit more than a two in three favourite against either.

Back a bit later for bets.

No comments:

Post a Comment