Saturday 4 March 2023

Round 6 - any bets?

One up one down today, as the up was at even money there's no change in the profit and loss account, where there is change is in the makeup of the tournament, with Price and Noppert dropping out, annoyingly two of the players I was really close to adding on with backs went on to win (Dolan, Ando), maybe I should trust the numbers a bit more. Oh well, onto the last sixteen we go:

Dolan/Gilding - This would I think be a pretty fun watch, despite both players being somewhat deliberate, there's so many similarities in their games. Projections are saying Gilding by a little bit more than 60/40, don't think either player has been in brilliant recent form but Gilding's definitely been playing the better stuff in this tournament. Feels like it's close to a play on Andrew, 4/5 isn't a bad price but ideally I'd want ever so slightly more. That's the way I'd go if you put a gun to my head.

Anderson/van den Bergh - Ando made one Belgian look extremely ordinary in the last round, and now gets another who did enough to beat King without ever really looking brilliant. This seems like a 2-1 kind of game in favour of Ando. The line is nowhere near that with Gary being the underdog. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice and pass up the sort of value I did earlier, 0.25u Anderson 6/5.

de Zwaan/Cross - Jeffrey looks to be back to his best more and more with every passing game after dumping out Price with the highest average of the round, while Cross keeps doing Cross things, getting a professional job done on Beaton with a ton plus average of his own. Projections are hugely in favour of Rob, I'm going to naturally temper them slightly given just how well Jeffrey played this afternoon (despite the Friday being, at best, simply alright statistically), and it's enough for me not to want to take Cross at 2/5, which with the level of edge I perceive him having ignoring this afternoon would be close to a moderate play. Certainly don't want to be getting on the underdog hype train.

Clayton/Schindler - Jonny didn't need to do anything spectacular to get a big win over de Sousa, while Martin looked very competent in dumping out previous winner Adrian Lewis. Clayton's a favourite, but I don't see Martin as outclassed, he's certainly a live dog with a projection coming in at just over 40%, maybe tone that down a tad with Clayton's form to start the year. With Schindler having prices approaching 2/1, it's certainly worth considering taking the German here, but I'd want longer than 2's to actually recommend a play. Clayton certainly not "acca safe".

van Gerwen/Humphries - Michael was in a spot of bother in terms of the scoreline against Kleermaker, but kleered up (sigh) after the break, while Luke was forced the distance yet again but got home against Smith. This looks 60/40 in projections but I wonder how much back to back really long and tough games against quality opponents will have taken out of Luke. We can't even get 2/1 so this match just doesn't appeal to me from a betting perspective.

Wright/Burnett - Richie got home in a decider, while Peter wasn't brilliant statistically but was doing enough to get home in a fairly close game against Rydz. Richie's run has been a nice one, but it surely ends here, a best price of 5/1 looks spot on from where I'm looking and Snakebite will likely move on to the quarters.

O'Connor/Gawlas - Fantastic opportunity for both here (although Willie's obviously been this far before), O'Connor dumped out the reigning champion in a decider breaking a three figure average, while Adam was in a bit of a duel with Kevin Doets but came out on the right side of it. Willie should be favoured here, if I was setting a no vig line I'd go 8/13 - the market has it a little bit tighter, but not so close where we'd want to consider going against Gawlas.

Aspinall/Cullen - Final game, and it's another game for Nathan against a Premier League snub after he took out van Duijvenbode, this time it's against Cullen who ended the run of Karel Sedlacek. This one appears very tight on paper, I would maybe give Cullen the slightest of edges and I feel as if he may be slightly fresher, having had two easier games to this point as well as no Premier League the day before as well. Nathan is a marginal favourite, but it's still close enough that 11/10 isn't the sort of line I want to be piling on to here.

That's it, back tomorrow morning in all probability for quarter final thoughts.

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