Friday 24 March 2023

ET2 round 2 thoughts

Less than ideal set of results today, Kuivenhoven didn't seemingly play too badly but couldn't get it done, Hempel was very disappointing however. Still, both were only small plays and it's only a relatively small hit, we expect both to lose a bit more than half the time, and we only need one to hit to cover the other with interest, can't really complain about getting a clear bottom quartile result. Going to be super quick about round two as I don't have a huge amount of time:

Heta/Boulton - 0.25u Heta 4/9, shouldn't be this close, some random books are offering 1/2 which seems even more ridiculous

Cross/Joyce - Maybe tiny value on Joyce, but not going to push it

Chisnall/Williams - Line looks pretty much perfect

van Duijvenbode/Evetts - Same. Wouldn't hate people putting Dirk in an acca but Ted did look alright yesterday

Cullen/Smith - Everything seeing this as super tight, avoid and just enjoy the game

Clayton/Meikle - Clayton being set as a 2-1 favourite appears perfect

Noppert/Dobey - Market has this super close, I have Danny as having a moderately small edge which is not enough to consider a bet sadly

Searle/Bunting - Stephen definitely extremely live, enough so that the market's actually noticed and given us no value whatsoever

Price/Ratajski - Maybe close to a tiny play on Ratajski, we can get 5/2, I've got him as ever so slightly more than a one in three shot, wouldn't hate a play at that price but he made hard work of today, so not tempted

Humphries/Dolan - Brendan has chances, but they're accurately reflected in the lines we can see

Smith/Eidams - Little bit of a surprise to see Rene come through, but the run ends here, not even considering 11/1, maybe the bet should actually be on Smith here

Wright/Pietreczko - Was wondering whether this would actually be a tempting play on Ricardo, but looking at the numbers, he's actually overvalued on long form and probably about right on more recent form, so will pass

van Gerwen/van Barneveld - 0.1u van Barneveld 3/1, I'm seeing Barney as just more than one in three, but not quite 35%. Getting 3/1? We'll have a flyer there

van den Bergh/Wade - Line sadly appears perfect, Dimi is the better player but I'm still seeing Wade as approaching 40% chances. Wade at 6/4 therefore appears completely disinteresting

Schindler/O'Connor - Kind of a similar line here. Market maybe has this a bit closer than it actually is in reality, but it is only in very limited fringe bookies and most places have things looking correct in my opinion

Rock/White - Another one that looks perfect, I'm seeing Josh as bang on 70%, he's 2/5. Not really worth considering Ian despite a great end to his game

Just the two plays, one odds on, one another long shot, let's see how it goes.

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