Thursday 2 March 2023

UK Open round 1 tips and bets

Going to go through all of these. Rounds 2/3 I will work out later this evening - I will probably prioritise those matchups that are already known and hence already have lines in a smaller post first, then get up thoughts on the remainder after (which naturally might be fairly vague given many matches have up to eight different players in them, hence a potential sixteen permutations of how it might turn out). As with previous years, tomorrow morning I will open up a live post with key thoughts and in-running new bets, do keep it open in a tab and check it occasionally.

Littler/Fullwell - Feel this is close to a bet on Luke despite the market having him as a strong favourite, Nick's just not been playing that well. That said, Nick's not going to give away a great deal cheaply so I can pass this one easily enough at the market price.
van Veen/Owen - We've got a fair bit of good data on this, and it leans towards a no bet. Seeing 62/38 for van Veen, Owen is competent enough that this isn't going to be a one way show despite how highly I rate Gian. 8/11 just doesn't appeal.
Wenig/de Zwaan - Another decent data size game, and another that I feel seems close enough to correct. I've got Jeffrey 55/45, we can get Lukas at a little bit better than what I'd consider a fair line but clearly not enough to consider a punt.
van der Velde/Claydon - Yet more games where we've got good data, and perhaps counter intuitively, Jurjen is favoured in the projections a bit better than 60/40. The market seems close to correct on that basis, another easy one to avoid.
Monk/Andersen - We've not got too much data on Monk, a lot of what we've got on Andersen might be a little underrated. We can get 5/2 on Andersen, which is in the sort of ballpark where, if not for Monk having a decent showing last weekend, I'd be tempted, but I'll take a wide berth here.
Heneghan/Lee - This is a "how good is Heneghan really" sort of question, as well as a "has Lee got better than 2018" question. I'm thinking in terms of the second question it can't be no, and he's got to be able to play better than what he showed in the event last time to have won two qualifiers. 0.1u Lee 3/1, this could spectacularly backfire but I think risk/reward this is fine.
Labre/Klose - Think there's enough evidence here that Klose is not only the better player, he's also playing better right now. Maybe not by a huge deal, so I'll keep the sizing small, but 0.1u Klose 20/21
Jenkins/Warner - Warner seems slightly better right now. Warner is priced accordingly. Temptation to go with Andy based on far superior big match experience is there, but I'll shy away from doing so.
Girvan/Zonneveld - Got a fair bit on both these, and Nathan's not actually that big an underdog. Call it slightly more than 55/45 in Niels' favour. There's a fair bit of a differential between that thought and the actual price, so 0.25u Girvan 2/1.
Goffin/Knops - Weird tie between two brand new card holders who could do with a big win like this. I'm going to go 0.25u Knops 8/11, he seems better, I'm not sure quite so much better given limited sample sizes, but I think it's probably enough that I can take this punt and it's at least not bed.
Cole/van der Wal - Had a look at the line and saw Jitse at 7/4 and thought "is he really that much worse, and is it worth a play" - after further review, he is, and it isn't.
Moston/Neyens - Think this is worth going with Kenny here, 0.25u Neyens 8/13, Jim is steadily improving but looks a fair bit behind where Neyens is at right now, coupled with a clear differential in big game experience I think we can go with Kenny at this price with a fair bit of confidence.
Davey/Evans - Lee's 1/4, if I had anything whatsoever on Gary I could give a better assessment, but I don't, for a complete random it seems the line is fine?
Taylor/Webster - Market has this as a flip. I'm not quite sure why, I had this as fairly close in power rankings but there looks to be a clear tier break and Darren is on the right side of it. 0.25u Webster 10/11, experience will show here I think.
White/Roelofs - How much confidence do we have in Owen? Not a huge amount, but enough that I don't want to be taking a flyer on Stuart at barely better than 2/1. He's got chances but I'd need to see more in terms of price.
Klaasen/Payne - Going to be taking Jelle in this one, 0.1u Klaasen 8/11, I'm only going cautiously on account of a lack of data on Payne and that it's not the greatest of prices, Jelle's been doing great work in terms of getting the match practice and getting the results in it, but Josh is a huge wildcard here.
Richardson/Tricole - Feels like this could easily have been a WDF world quarter at some point recently. Thibault's the favourite, I think he's better but not by a huge deal, really don't know where James' game is at so maybe form based we should take Tricole?
Bialecki/Richardson - Sebastian seems a fair bit better than Joshua at this stage, and has shown great things in this event previously. Is it enough to start punting at 1/2? Feels like it's close, but I'll pass on it.
Nentjes/Kist - Another game that's priced 60/40, this one in favour of Geert, it feels intuitively right, projections based on what Christian has done (which isn't terrible in terms of sample size) are bang on that. Just kind of getting an inkling feeling with Kist having had a good CT weekend that it ought to be the play. But I won't be tempted.
Read/Loose - Read should be comfortable here, but he's 2/5, which isn't particularly interesting, Dan's better but Callum is not a complete random so should be able to keep this respectable.
Hall/Sparidaans - Market's favouring Graham by a small amount, this seems fine to me, on limited data on both I've got him ahead by a small margin.
Sedlacek/Lane - 0.25u Sedlacek 1/5, not going crazy given the short price and Karel not jumping out of the blocks in 2023, but this looks like a complete mismatch.
Grant/Usher - 0.25u Usher 1/4, while I'm not as sold on Graham as I am in the bet for Karel above, Usher appears extremely competent and the 2023 numbers are fine, Noel is a complete random so I can't expect him to put up too much resistance - although I could easily be proven wrong.
Flynn/Wynn - Was tempted to say go with a flyer on Wynn despite knowing very little on him given Michael's not been putting up fantastic stats from where we have seen him, but we can't even get 2/1 on Jon which seems a bit ridiculous. I'm almost wondering if taking the 4/9 is actually the smart play!
Rupprecht/Kenny - Market can't separate the two for all intents and purposes, but I'm going to take a small punt here, 0.1u Kenny evs, as stated in the super brief power rankings post Kenny has the habit of getting things done when it matters, he's actually scoring a bit better as well. Pascal's got all the potential in the world, but for the here and now I'll take Nick.
McEwan/Lauby - Got enough data here to make the master computer seem worthwhile, and it likes Jim. Don't think there's a huge differential between the two, Spreadex actually has Jim odds against which I'd probably take but that's a bit of a random book, so nothing here.
Slevin/Kuivenhoven - It's so, so tempting to go with the rookie who's been hyped by many, myself included. But Maik's the better player, has the stage experience, has the experience full stop, so will go small, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 10/11, almost half want this one to lose but I'm just going to go with the disciplined play.
van Trijp/Holt - Danny's nearly 1/3, that doesn't seem unfair, hard to rag on players coming through the the Dev Tour route, but DvT is a substantially better player as of right now.
Gurney/Pilgrim - Darryl's a similarly priced favourite. Looking at the pure numbers, that doesn't seem unfair.
Burton/Smith-Neale - Market has these two really close, Adam's put up better numbers in my stats, but that's real short data so I'm not sure what weight to put into it, Stephen just feels the better player all round over a sustained period. As Burton is only 11/10, I think it's an easy one to say "let's just avoid it", but wouldn't be surprised to find myself be wrong on this one.

That's all for now, I'll try to get the fixed round 2/3 games out later this evening.

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