Friday, 20 May 2022

Stuttgart day 1 - just the bets

0.5u Gilding 3/10, as thought, this isn't short enough on 365. Betfair are much shorter than this, Ladbrokes much the same. I see no realistic way Michael wins this one.

0.25u Zonneveld 11/10, same bookie, enough of an edge to bet this, would have hoped for a little bit longer but this'll do.

Close to Szaganski at just longer than 2/1 but recent form and possible lack of stage experience makes me halt. Wouldn't hate the punt.

Williams at even is really, really tempting, but it's a case of how much stock I put into consistency. After all, the projection which disregards that says it's a flip.

0.25u Rafferty 4/5, this seems way off. Did Horvat have a good quali or something? I think even peak Dragutin doesn't make this a bad bet and there's a severe lack of evidence we have that.

Sedlacek is close to being worth a short stab, but it'd only be for 0.1u and I don't think it's really worth chasing this even if the line moves to better than 3/1.

Thursday, 19 May 2022

Stuttgart round one thoughts

Incredibly frustrating that we've got different big players withdrawing, and because the PDC decided to hold all the host nation qualifiers in advance, we've got no replacement. Despite them holding a playoff at the actual qualifier for this exact eventuality. The mind boggles. Still, that means that Schindler gets the dubious privilege of getting promoted to the #16 seed, and Eddie Lovely gets a first round bye and a winnable second round game against Daryl Gurney. I can't see any lines yet, so will just post up some thoughts for now - if there's lines up later tonight I'll probably post tips later tonight, otherwise it'll be in the morning.

Gilding/Michael - Should be a very easy Gilding this one. Michael's had some flashes, as he always does, but he's nearly ten points behind Andrew on scoring. Whatever price this comes up at, it won't be short enough, 1/8 looks fair!

Razma/Zonneveld - Madars has looked decent so far in 2022, while we've not heard a great deal from Niels since he regained his card. Niels is however scoring more than Madars is, he's a little bit more inconsistent but 8/11 looks about right to me. Would imagine Razma enters as favourite, so could be an opportunity here.

Gawlas/Joyce - Entertaining one this, Adam off of the back of a good run while Joyce is still in that top 32 fringes zone, but a bit off major qualification which he really needs to threaten those spots. Joyce looks the solidly better player in 2022 with deceptively good stats given his quiet set of results, good few points better than Gawlas and ought to be around 4/9.

Szaganski/Mansell - Hard to know what to make of Radek, not seen a whole lot of him play, especially in comparison to Mickey, who's come onto our radar a bit over the last couple of weeks with some decent results. There's only a couple of points between them in the scoring and consistency looks similar, so a projection of about Mansell 4/6 seems about right.

Bellmont/Lukeman - Data's a little bit limited on Stefan, only 31 legs played with scoring of 87 in them, which puts him a fair bit behind Lukeman. Don't think this is a formality for Martin, but I would imagine a line of around 1/3 is in the right ballpark.

Meikle/Meulenkamp - The RM derby! Ryan has played competently and is outscoring Ron well enough that he comes in here as a favourite between two players who are looking to add a bit of a buffer between themselves and the cutoff in the tour card race. This projects at 8/11 in favour of Ryan, but Ron is playing some fairly inconsistent stuff so a fair line might actually be a few ticks shorter.

Murnan/Wenig - We've seen a fair bit of Wenig over the last couple of years without really seeing him set the house on fire, while Joe has had some good runs but maybe not so much over the past twelve months which has seen him slide a little bit. Joe's got about three points a turn on Lukas who we have just about enough data on to make me think Murnan ought to be 8/15 when lines show up.

Klaasen/Rydz - This ought to be played at a nice pace and could result in a fair few maxes, we've got a good 70 or so legs on Jelle who has scored near to 89 in multiple events across several organisations and formats, but that's a good 3+ points below Callan, not the easiest draw for either but Callan ought to be around 1/2. Might be shorter in real life, maybe lack of sample is overrating Klaasen a touch.

Williams/Rodriguez - Two players here who have made a good start to 2022, making the Matchplay might be a little bit out of reach, but the Grand Prix is certainly on the horizon for both, Jim being the last player out and Rowby within 10k of the cutoff as things stand. Both are scoring well, winning legs are basically identical which gives an evens projection, but we need to consider consistency in this one, Rowby's score is at 3.95 which isn't bad, especially for him, but Jim's is practically zero, so that coinflip projection needs taking with a huge pinch of salt.

Huybrechts/Bunting - Another great matchup here which a few years back could easily have been a major quarter final, Kim continuing a resurgence and scoring over 90 a turn, but that's not enough to keep pace with Bunting, who's just that little bit better which ought to translate to around an 8/11 advantage for the former Lakeside champion.

Kleermaker/Jansen - Interesting Dutch derby here between someone who I've tipped to win a Pro Tour soon but hasn't, and someone who I didn't, but has. Scoring isn't too dissimilar, Jansen has the higher scoring but is a bit more inconsistent, they're scoring about the same on losing legs but Danny is a couple of points higher on winning legs, causing the master computer to spit out a line of 4/6 which might be a little too short in reality.

Rafferty/Horvat - Nathan ought to be OK in this one. Steady scoring in the 88 region ought to be enough for Dragutin, who we know can produce some moments of magic, but we've not seen it any time recently, probably the last time being that Superleague final he lost. Probably gets priced up at around 2/5 in favour of Rafferty, I doubt I end up taking a position on this game.

Woodhouse/Lewis - Seems like Luke is getting quite a few tough draws of late, this time up against Adie - and then Clayton if he wins this one. Adie is playing well, scoring well into the 91 range, but Luke is only a couple of points off and this actually projects at 4/5 Lewis, such is the parity between the players. That said, Woodhouse is a touch more inconsistent, so while I imagine the line will be shorter than that on Adie, I doubt this would be an auto play.

Clemens/Engstrom - Gabriel could do with a win here as he's been a little bit on the quiet side, and getting the Nordic qualifier isn't a bad draw in the slightest. We've only got one match worth of data on Johan this season, which is from Austria where he got four legs off Ricky Evans averaging around 90, but Gabriel should be too tough. Hard to project a line. 1/3, maybe 2/7 Clemens?

Sedlacek/Noppert - Final game is a corker, we've gone on about Sedlacek for quite some time now and he's only gone and drawn the newest major champion who with a bit of a run here could get up towards the top 16 on the Pro Tour rankings and avoid having to play the qualifiers and the first round, which'd be a big boost. Karel is good but Danny is just better, call it 4/7 in favour of Noppie?

Bets when I can post them.

Sunday, 15 May 2022

Prague day 3

Apologies for yesterday's post being very short and to the point, but I was extremely short on time, and I literally found no plays - it wasn't a case of not looking for them, I did go through every match and couldn't find a single play that I could recommend. We've had a fair few big names drop out - Clayton is maybe the biggest shock of the European Tour so far this season, while Price also going out (naturally there were afters, if you're going to bet on afters in any game, Price against Lewis would usually be a fair shout) has opened up the door for whoever comes through the van Gerwen/Humphries quarter (ironic that the two players left in the event who are scoring the most this season are in the same quarter) to be a strong favourite to take the title, while there's big opportunities for lots of people to go deep. Let's roll:

Rodriguez/van Duijvenbode - Rowby's been in form, and was able to withstand a big fish from Smith to get home and eliminate the Premier League player on a 14+ game winning streak, while Dirk looked strong, especially on finishing, to take out the home favourite in Sedlacek. I'm seeing Rowby with more or less right in between a 40% chance and a one in three shot, so a best line of 2/1 really isn't enticing either way.

de Sousa/Justicia - The Jose derby is under way, Justicia was able to have the game of his life to take out Clayton (who, let's be said, wasn't playing bad, Jose just played well enough to get over the line), while de Sousa looked a bit better than he has of late with a steady 6-2 victory over Kleermaker. Justicia is definitely live in this one, anyone who can beat a Clayton who is playing well should be, I'm seeing nearly a one in three shot, so still a tough ask - the best we can get is the usual Ladbrokes underrating the underdogs compared to other books, but even then 12/5 isn't enticing.

van den Bergh/Humphries - Think this has to be the match of the round, and I don't think it's overly close - Dimitri had a real tough draw in Aspinall in round two, but was able to get the odd break to leave Nathan hoping his home town football team gets the point they need later today to get back in the league (no idea if he actually follows County or not but will give them props), Luke only dropped the one leg against the dangerous Lukeman, could maybe have been a bit closer if Martin hasn't missed the odd dart but he was already three down before he got a shot so always on the back foot. Dimitri's chances look the same as Rowby's to me, but disturbingly the bookies can't separate them. 0.25u Humphries 10/11.

van Gerwen/Mansell - Michael let the foot off the gas a bit against one of the Czech qualifiers to blow my -4.5 punt with MvG being 5-0 up, while Mansell got through a slugfest with Dolan, surviving a match dart to get through. This one shouldn't be close, 5/1 on Mickey looks the correct line, so MvG is really too short to put into an acca or anything.

Cross/Evans - Rob had no issues dealing with van Dongen, while Evans surprisingly had no issues with Ratajski, whitewashing the Pole and only allowing him darts at double in one leg. Oh my. Rob continues to be underrated and projects as a solid favourite and a 1/3 line would be fair. We can actually get 4/9, not quite enough for me to pull the wallet out, but looks to be the best value of the favourites so far if you want to have some additional higher variance plays.

Smith/Chisnall - Ross continues to get some better results after a fairly poor opening to the year, 6-4 over Cullen isn't a bad result, Dave edged out Gurney in a decider in what looks like the match of the round and maybe of the Euro Tour so far just looking at the numbers with both players sustaining 102 and 103 averages across all eleven legs. Appears a fairly tight one on projections, I'm giving Chizzy the 55/45 edge, he comes in as a slightly shorter favourite than that, but with the vig there isn't a play on Smith. If we could get the 7/4 to go with the 4/7 that Dave is priced at in multiple books, I'd probably take the shot on Ross, maybe it is out there but I just can't see it because oddschecker are being lazy again. Maybe I try the exchanges.

Gawlas/Searle - Adam's the last Czech left standing having got the big scalp of Damon Heta in what looked like a bit of a slower scoring than usual and then missed doubles fest just looking at the numbers, Ryan meanwhile was last on yesterday and whitewashed Ritchie Edhouse. Seems like this should be a match too far for Adam, I'd price him at 7/2 ignoring any crowd factors, he's actually a little shorter than that in some places so being able to get 3/10 on Searle at 365 isn't a losing play - just one  where I don't have the confidence margin to place a bet. If anyone's going any longer than 1/3, then definitely consider the shot.

Lewis/van der Voort - Final game, should be a solid one played at a watchable pace. Adie took out Price in what I assume was a bit of a tetchy game, Vincent meanwhile nicked a decider against Schindler, really slamming home the ton-forties and making very few errors on doubles, only real costly error being in the first leg. Adie projects pretty solidly in this one - approaching a two in three favourite, I think there's enough here that I can go 0.25u Lewis 8/11, he's a confidence player and what can give him more confidence than eliminating the number one seed. Real chance for Adie to go deep in this one.

So just the two plays, the Luke one is the best play, the Lewis one has just about enough to recommend, but I wouldn't take the 4/6 that's on Betfair, Ladbrokes etc, it's that marginal. Maybe just go a tenth of a unit at that price if you're restricted on anywhere that's offering better.

Saturday, 14 May 2022

Prague day 2 very rapid fire thoughts

Good day one, 4/4, very limited on time today so will just say that there is absolutely NOTHING of value. Every single line looks to be in order. Good god.

Friday, 13 May 2022

Prague day 1 evening tips

Going to blast through these, ignoring the Chizzy game because some books having him as short at 1/40 is lol, and also the Gawlas game as I simply don't have data on his opponent:

Hempel/Smith - Both seem a bit out of form, but Florian more so, and Ross has shown signs of turning back up of late. Projecting at just over 70% so 0.25u Smith 4/6

Kleermaker/Bialecki - Seems an incredibly close game, I can barely separate them, maybe Bialecki is a slight dog. Market tends to agree with that assessment.

Henderson/Aspinall - Market's correctly picking Hendo as a big dog in this one, appears a similar sort of margin as the Hempel game. As such, it's moderately close to a Henderson bet, but nobody's quite offering long enough odds, I'd start thinking about it at 9/2, and Ladbrokes, who've shown a tendency to price underdogs a bit long, aren't even at 4/1, and others are shorter.

Evetts/Lewis - Looks like a pretty boring spot on line with Lewis not quite at 1/3, nothing much to say here.

Clemens/Sedlacek - Actually seeing Karel as a small favourite in this one, 55/45, he's priced as a tiny underdog, I'll go small with 0.1u Sedlacek 6/5, I'm not sure how sustainable his form is, but Clemens lost to Edgar midweek so there is that, plus Karel is at home.

VVDV/Nentjes - This is also priced up surprisingly closely, basically the same as the previous game. I've got it slightly tighter, Nentjes with the tiny edge, he is off the back of a tournament win as well, but there's not quite enough to justify taking 13/10.

Back later this evening for round two.

Prague day 1 afternoon tips

Not going to be much here, they've loaded most of the domestic qualifiers that I know absolutely nothing about into this session with unbackable odds, similarly with one of the associate qualifiers, which only really leaves four games to look at. Still:

0.25u Rodriguez 8/11 v Waites, Scott hasn't been playing to the level that Rowby has since regaining his card, the Austrian seems to pop up quite a lot on the list of players to consider, and the projection gives him, give or take a tenth of a percent, a two out of three chance of winning. 8/11 is easily enough to bet.

0.1u Mansell 5/4, this does seem fairly close, but I've got Mickey as having the edge the other way around. That's enough of a swing to make it a play, it is a little bit of a concern that Mickey got pummelled last time out (although there wasn't much he could do about it) and that Jeffrey looks to have climbed off the complete bottom of his form, but it's still worth the play. I'm toning it down from a quarter unit to a smaller play though.

van Dongen/Claydon seems similarly tight, maybe Jules has a bit more of a shot than the market suggests, but I've only got him ahead of Brett by a couple of percent, and I think there's possibly a bit of a lack of data on both, so will pass 11/8.

Rock/Evans game looks priced accurately enough. Projections maybe give Josh a slightly better chance than the market indicates, but it's not enough to bet and Ricky's playing OK, so I can easily pass that one.

Wednesday, 11 May 2022

PC 14/15

These were a couple of weird events. Basically the entire Premier League didn't enter, so the opportunities for each way gambling looked huge - didn't really work out like that with Smith binking both days, a couple of players (Joyce, O'Shea) that you wouldn't really have fancied, which just left Heta, Chisnall, Rydz and Soutar to go for - and apart from Heta, then possibly Rydz, I'm not sure you're going to be picking the others out. Still, I did at least get Heta, so something was rebuilt after a pretty bad ET5 which dropped me right back to break even for the year. We can go again in Prague this weekend, but for now, let's update the FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Jonny Clayton
7 Rob Cross
8 Gary Anderson
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Ryan Searle
12 Joe Cullen
13 Luke Humphries
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Nathan Aspinall
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Damon Heta
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

There are no changes - van Gerwen had closed right up to Smith, but he's pulled back away again. Dimitri's final last weekend gives himself a bit of breathing room. Humphries is very close to Cullen and a better weekend could well see him up a place. Lower down, O'Shea's final yesterday puts him just a couple of spots outside of the to 100, Josh Rock is already in there, Gilding's continued accumulation has put him up into the top 90, Sedlacek's up to the top 80 ahead of his home event, while it looks like Devon Petersen is out of the top 30 for the first time in some time. As is Whitlock, for the first time in even longer I would say. Possibly since he joined the PDC.

Luke Littler is some talent, isn't he? He looks a better prospect than Leighton Bennett did around 3 years ago. Already securing the gold-ranked Welsh Open to book a return to the WDF worlds, I think it's only a matter of time before he gets a card. Timing could be unfortunate though, he'd turn 16 just after when I assume Q-School will run, so while he'd be able to have a good run at the Development Tour in 2023, Challenge Tour would be off the table, which would be a real shame. I suppose you've got to cut things off at some point, and holding back on going completely ham on the darts circuit while he completes his up to 16 education can't necessarily be a bad move.

So we head into Prague. There's quite a few things I'm interested in looking at on this one:

- Who's going to qualify? Sedlacek and Gawlas have got the automatic spots from their rankings, but it's a bit of a wildcard after that. Roman Benecky I guess would start as one of the favourites, possibly along with Tomas Houdek whose name I've seen spring up on the secondary tours a few times, but they're 6 and 7 on the FDI Czech rankings respectively, so can we really say that?

- We've got a lot of good young talent in this one. Rock is in there. Bialecki won the Eastern Europe qualifier. Nentjes won one Development Tour and made a final of another last weekend and he's in the hat, as are slightly older names in Schindler, Rowby and Evetts.

- We have some extremely spicy potential last 16 matches. van Gerwen against Clayton jumps off the page, DvdB against Heta ought to be good, Cross/Humphries similarly, then you've got some evenly matched games like van Duijvenbode against Cullen, heck, can we even chuck in Wright against Ratajski? de Sousa and Gurney?

- There's quite a few names that are in the first round who are right in the Matchplay mix, who getting a decent draw would see them try to solidify a place. Lukeman's had another board win the last couple of days and will want to get more money on the board. van der Voort's actually a little bit of a way out and could use the cash. Josh Rock is creeping up and stands a decent chance, he's within 10k of the last spot right now so a couple of good runs and he's right in there and accumulating more than most of the players in this race. Ricky Evans plays and is in now but only at spot 15, Ross Smith's the second man out as opposed to Evans' penultimate man in, that'd be some tie with their respective form (although Ross did hit a nine and have an OK run yesterday, so maybe that's turning a bit). Adrian Lewis isn't guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination, he is only 1k above Evans. Final name I'll chuck in is Ritchie Edhouse, he's not too far behind all of these.

We don't have any secondary tour action until next month and the WDF similarly doesn't have anything until June, with the Swiss Open being rated high enough to count to my stats before the Dutch Open the weekend afterwards, with no PDC events that weekend and a Pro Tour double header in Germany afterwards, I think we might see quite a few of the big affiliate names that play both sides spending some time in Europe soon.

I'll be back tomorrow with Prague tips, it will likely be fairly late on Thursday - I'll have thoughts as a minimum, if lines aren't there yet, I'll fill in the tips with a quick post on break from work about an hour before post.

Sunday, 8 May 2022

Some rebuilding done. Quarters?

Firstly, some interesting matchups in the Welsh Open/Classic weekend, Luke Littler vs Wes Newton is a classic battle of the ages in the Open, although with Wes only being 44 that may be a bit harsh. Has been around forever so I think you get what I'm saying. Classic features Graham Hall (I assume it's the same one who had a nice UK Open run as a qualifier) against someone I don't know. Ladies open features Sherrock vs Greaves which could be interesting. But for Leverkusen, we've got quarter finals coming up in less than an hour, Ryan Searle clawed us some cash back despite Chisnall not missing treble 20 at all for three legs, thankfully remembering how to do so in the decider, MvG was a missed spot and he's now got to be pretty short for the whole thing, let's see:

Aspinall/Humphries - Priced up rather tight with Luke having the slight edge. I think this is a play, Luke is right up there with the best players in the world right now, and I'm projecting at near two in three win shots. Nathan's a bit more consistent, so maybe bring that down a point or two, but with the price offered on Coralbrokes, we can't go wrong, 0.25u Humphries 17/20, probably good up to 8/11.

van Duijvenbode/van Gerwen - Michael dropped off a bit from the first game, but it was always going to be hard to maintain that level, and he comes in as a bit shorter than a two in three favourite against Dirk, who put in a signature performance of his own. Reads as 65/45 to me. 11/5 on Dirk isn't quite long enough, but van Gerwen isn't backable at that short of a price.

Rock/van den Bergh - Opportunity for Josh, who made easy work of Williams, to make a real statement and completely ruin his value, he'll play Dimitri who put what now seems a routine 105 average in against Schindler. Maybe the crowd remains against him? Model prefers Rock nearly 60/40, maybe draw it back a few points through consistency, and he's available at odds against. We'll take that, 0.25u Rock 7/5 on Unibet and Betfred, probably alright to go up to maybe 5/4.

Wade/Searle - This is not a tricky one to call. Ryan has been playing significantly better in more or less all aspects of the game and should be a favourite, I see 60/40. He isn't, he's odds against in multiple places. 0.25u Searle 11/10

Doubt I post before the semis.

Day 2 = dumpster fire. Day 3 - better?

Good god, apart from smashing Fulham, nothing went right yesterday. There's two main risks when you go with a long shot in this game - either your guy doesn't turn up and can't win, or the other guy plays towards the top end of their game, and you can't win. That happened every time. Even in the one that was priced fairly close, Gilding didn't play bad apart from a couple of missed doubles, but Brendan averaged 103 (albeit that is inflated by winning four legs in 13 darts and another in 14 - if those are all last dart in hand he averages a much more reasonable 94). Kuivenhoven, Menzies didn't show, Wade was unplayable, Petersen didn't show, Sedlacek missed doubles, Rowby was ok but didn't quite score heavy enough and Clayton kept him at arms length. Fortunately these were all (Gilding aside) small plays, so the relative bankroll damage is minor and we are only down half a unit from where we were at the start of play. Last 16 quickly:

Price/Aspinall - Marked up fairly close, getting 4/6 on Price against a non-PL player seems a rarity, but it is what it is. Liking Nathan's work, but if anything the value is on Gerwyn, who I've got at 65%, which isn't enough for a play, but it's close.

Humphries/Dolan - Kind of a similar price here, Luke's a tick or so shorter, but 2-3 percentage points less likely to win than Gerwyn is. Odd that. The line's close enough that neither player looks like even a break even bet given the vig, Dolan needs 40% and I have 37%, Humphries needs 64% and I have 63%. No thanks.

Cullen/van Duijvenbode - I can't split them. They are adjacent to each other on my scoring charts. Maybe Dirk has the slight edge with ever so slightly better consistency, slightly contradictory to the market giving Cullen the tiny edge, but it's all close enough that there's nothing to go with here.

van Gerwen/Clayton - God I want to bet MvG after yesterday's performance. 113 average (after going 2-0 down and averaging under a ton at the time), four four visit kills, top of my rankings, and he's only 4/5. This is really, really close to a bet, I see it 61/39 MvG, but I get the sense that my model's underrating Clayton slightly, so I think that's just enough to dissuade me from taking the bet. If it was 10/11 I'd probably go with it, it's that close, those extra couple of percent would make the difference to me.

Williams/Rock - Ooh, this is going to be a fun one to call after Scott got the big upset (without playing all that well), Rock took out Ratajski and comes in at shorter than 1/2. Which is fair, I've got Rock smack bang in the middle of 70% and 75%. Big chance for both.

van den Bergh/Schindler - Crowd is getting on Martin's side a bit, which might account for the market being as tight as it is, with us not even being able to get 6/4 on the German, and normally not close. Or maybe it's the market recognising he is good, I see it 53/47, so no bet.

de Sousa/Wade - Jose forced to a decider by Dennis Nilsson. Weird game, Dennis was nowhere in the legs that he lost so there was a huge average disparity. Wade looked good and enters as about a 60/40 favourite, I think that's slightly too favourable as I've got the Portuguese ace up at 46%, but as we can only get 11/8 in comparison to Wade's 4/6, and given their respective opening performances, I can pass this one.

Searle/Chisnall - Dave took out the dangerous Heta with a fine showing, Searle wasn't really troubled by Kcuik, lines are close with Ryan having the marginal edge. This seems a bit wider to me, I have Ryan at over 60%, so we're in basically the same situation as the van Gerwen game in terms of line offered and match edge. I don't see any consistency issues (both are a bit high, Dave is higher) and I don't have any feeling that Dave is being underrated, so 0.25u Searle 4/5 for just the one play of the day.

I should be back for the quarters.

Saturday, 7 May 2022

ET5 round 2 evening

OK, let's go to the evening:

Humphries/Penhall - Can't really recommend a play here. Darren has looked competent, but with limited data it's hard to say if there's any value when we can't even get 4/1. Against a player of Luke's calibre I'm inclined to say no.

Aspinall/Sedlacek - Karel getting another bye, nice, Nathan is a tricky task though and the Czech is floating at around a 30% shot in the market, I think he's close enough to Aspinall that it's worth a sneaky small flier on 365, 0.1u Sedlacek 12/5, 2022 data thinks this is more like low-mid 40% range for Karel so greater than 2/1 looks good.

Price/Woodhouse - Wow, how good did Luke look yesterday? Completely shut out my Mansell bet, can he sustain it against Gerwyn? That's always been the issue. Looks a 75/25 to me on 2022 data, we can get a bit longer than 3/1 on Luke, it's not enough for me to recommend a play, but if you think Woodhouse can sustain yesterday's level of play, I'm not going to stop you.

van Gerwen/Gurney - Daryl was in a bit of a fight with Kevin Burness that went with throw until the decider where he broke, that's not the confidence building game you want when coming up against one of the best players in the world. I can only see just above 20% chances for Daryl in this one, Michael's back to playing really well, 2/7 looks just fine to me.

Wright/Williams - Scott was pressured in a high quality game against Adam Gawlas, and make no mistake, if he plays like that today he absolutely can give Peter some problems. I think he's got maybe a bit more than a one in four chance, 4/1 is not quite enough, we've got enough long priced fliers that look value (I see that Menzies has already been backed in from where we took him) without desperately trying to manufacture another one.

Clayton/Rodriguez - Rowby's game with Kurz was a little sloppy, plenty of missed doubles etc, not what you want to be showing when coming up against one of the world's elite. 5/1 (Unibet) is way too long, we're taking that, 0.1u Rodriguez 5/1, 9/2 generally available also good. Projections say one in three, which may be a little high, but even if we said one in four which doesn't sound that outlandish, you're still well above the 17% you need to break even. Worth the punt.

Cross/Schindler - Martin gets to go up against Rob after taking out Edhouse in a game which feels like it might have been closer if Ritchie could hit doubles, the line here feels about right, Rob's good enough that he should win this somewhere between 60% and 65% of the time, so generally available 8/13 seems on the money.

Heta/Chisnall - Good one to finish, Damon's up there with the world's elite while Chizzy beat Clemens but certainly wasn't at his best, which you feel he'll need to be tonight. Looks about 65/35 in favour of Heta, can't really get better than 4/6 which isn't quite enough to recommend a play.

Will almost certainly be back on very short notice for round three.

ET5 round 2 afternoon

Will put up the evening in a separate post as time is of the essence

Ratajski/Rock - Has all value now gone? Rock is only 13/10, then again Ratajski has been quiet but still doing OK statistically. Ratajski's got the higher scoring overall but Rock projects to win, mainly due to a sizable consistency difference. Will pass it, but could be proven wrong.

de Sousa/Nilsson - Dennis played well yesterday, Jose hasn't looked his best for some time. Is it worth a flier? 9/2 is tempting but I will say no.

van Duijvenbode/Kuivenhoven - Christ, Maik tried his best to fuck that one up, but got home for us, he's nearly 3/1 which I'm going to take a small shot at, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 14/5, there is a big consistency problem which means that the 40% I'm seeing isn't a true figure, but I think it's still just about enough value. Dirk probably just says no and averages 105 having said that.

Dolan/Gilding - 60/40 in favour of Brendan you say? Flip I say. They're right next to each other on the scoring, Gilding hitting significantly more legs in four visits, Dolan a bit more in five. 0.25u Gilding 6/4

Searle/Kciuk - Bit messy from Krzysztof yesterday but it was enough to get by, going to have to tighten that up against Ryan, who's a big favourite and rightly so. 1/4 is almost value actually.

van den Bergh/Menzies - Cameron hit some nice big outs as White's struggles to get results continue, Dimitri's been a bit quiet and could be there for the taking, it's a pretty big favourites price which I think should be nearer 2/1 Menzies rather than the 0.1u Menzies 16/5 we can get on Coral/Ladbrokes. Got to take it there though, anything shorter than about 11/4 ceases to be value.

Wade/van Peer - Think I'm going to keep tipping Berry until he really lets us down, doubling was a bit sloppy from both yesterday and he's going to have to be on his game to beat Wade in current form, but once again Ladbrokes are overestimating the favourites. 0.1u van Peer 19/4, I'm seeing over one in three chances, which isn't affected by consistency as you might think - Wade actually has the worse score in 2022.

Cullen/Petersen - Damn, Doets let us down after getting the initial break back and then getting the break needed to throw for the match. Cullen I don't think is as much of a step up as people think and I'm seeing Devon as around a 35% chance, so I think once again Ladbrokes are offering up too good a price to decline, 0.1u Petersen 16/5

Thursday, 5 May 2022

ET5 - quick first round hits

Going to barrel through all of these extremely quickly:

Mansell/Woodhouse - Tough to call, Mansell seems slightly in form, Luke not so much, small edge is there, 0.1u Mansell 11/10

Penhall/Peters - Darren making some moves after doing nothing with his card, Luc's been quiet after getting his, market says flip, don't disagree

Sedlacek/not Baggish - Thought they'd solved this bye issue?

Nilsson/Lukeman - Martin in red hot form, Dennis likely can't compete, odds reflect it fine

Rock/Scutt - Spicy as hell, Rock amazing, Scott started well in PDC but quiet since, wild variety of prices so will take 0.25u Rock 8/15 on 365, Ladbrokes have the line right at 4/11

Gawlas/Williams - Adam up and down, Scott just getting work done, bookies have it close, I think Scott's maybe 55/45, so will take 0.25u Williams 23/20 on Laddies

Kcuik/Barry - Kcuik pretty dangerous, Keane more so, generally Barry more than two in three seems weighted too much, but it's actually right

Gilding/Wenig - Andrew hugely underrated, Lukas possibly the opposite, albeit slightly, not being able to get more than 2/5 on Gilding appears reasonable

Petersen/Doets - Devon not been good for a while, Kevin been consistently better for a while, looks 60/40, market disagrees, 0.25u Doets evs

Bunting/Kuivenhoven - Stephen with good run last weekend, Maik not been playing bad but with a quiet start to 2022, Maik inconsistent but this feels closer than the line so small flier despite liking Bunting's work this year, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 9/4

Gurney/Burness - Irish derby time, Daryl's regaining form, Kevin somewhat of the same, data says Burness might be a bit closer but that seems like a sample size thing, but wouldn't rush to lump on Daryl at the prices offered

van Peer/Wattimena - Berry maybe playing the best he's done in a long time, Jermaine not playing overly badly, better than his nadir but not at his pushing the top 16 peak, seems flippy with Jermaine having a small edge so nothing doing here

Menzies/White - Cameron showing some flashes in 2022, Ian coming back after a shocker last time out, books feeling around 60/40 which appears pretty much bang on

Schindler/Edhouse - Martin still in our darting circle of trust but value declining, Ritchie either very good and can compete at this level but lots of bad legs, general not quite 2/1 line on Edhouse is not tempting enough

Rodriguez/Kurz - Rowby having a very good run of form, Nico been a bit out of action and not really sure where he's at, 4/7 isn't quite enough on the Austrian to put away name value considerations

Chisnall/Clemens - Best saved for last, this would be a great last sixteen matchup, lines look accurate.

Monday, 2 May 2022

van Gerwen back in the winners' circle

Great tournament from Michael. Probably peaked in that steamrollering of Dirk, but impressive throughout none the less. Noppert deserves the plaudits as well, maybe just ran out of steam in the evening session. Good run from Evans to climb into the Matchplay provisional spots as things stand, definitely one that we need to keep an eye on, although he won't be in Leverkusen which is going to come round quickly this week, but he will be in Prague the week after. This is a huge month for the Matchplay race, for now, let's show updated FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Jonny Clayton
7 Rob Cross
8 Gary Anderson
9 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
10 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 1)
11 Ryan Searle
12 Joe Cullen
13 Luke Humphries
14 Dimitri van den Bergh
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Nathan Aspinall
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode
18 Damon Heta
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz (NEW)

Rydz, just by being a seed and winning his opening match, pips King to 20th, although with Bunting having a good run, he's closed the gap and made it a bit of a three horse race with a good gap to Chisnall ahead. Noppert only just gets past de Sousa by less than 100 points, but will continue to climb with this Euro Tour run, Ando's only about 5k ahead and will surely drop to #10 by the end of the month. While van Gerwen was fifth at the start of the year, he's now much closer to Smith (down 36k) than he is to Wade (up 45k) so is closing the gap. Heck, a couple more Euro Tour finals and he's basically there even if he splits them if Smith doesn't respond.

Weekly Dartscast asks an interesting question of the week in is MvG now favourite for the Matchplay. The answer is a tricky one. He is scoring more than anyone in 2022, but not by a massive amount - he's at a mid 95 point. Anderson and Heta are low 95, Wright's high 94, Humphries mid 94, Cross and Searle are low 94, then there's another six players at 93. So he's not ahead by that much, and the crux of the matter is that barring a complete loss of form and Smith or Wade going ham, he is going to be the #3 seed. This means he is, assuming the seedings go their way, he is going to have to get through both of Price and Wright in some order - whichever of those is number 1 will need to beat just one of them. That's enough of a knockdown to make whoever ends up as the #1 seed probably favoured - although they won't have an easy path to the semis as projected, with Searle #16 right now (Humphries just behind and van Duijvenbode just ahead isn't going to give you an easier match if things shift) and Clayton/van den Bergh on a little bit of an island at #8/#9, although I can easily see de Sousa slipping back, he's less than a Euro Tour win away from Clayton. It's going to be an interesting tournament and it will be wide open.

Sunday, 1 May 2022

ET4 quarters

Congrats to James Richardson for nicking a close decider against Klaasen to bink the secondary Danish event just now, in terms of Austria, Bunting was in a close one as expected but got home with the odd break, Jansen not so much. Elsewhere there were a lot of one sided games, mostly going the way we expected outside of Noppert over Clayton maybe, but Wade forced MvG to a decider and Clemens did the same to Cross, so we're down to Noppert/Cullen, Evans/Aspinall, van Duijvenbode/van Gerwen and Cross/Bunting. Do we like any bets?

Well, there's nowt in the first game. I can't split them and the bookies can't either, only one book's making any sort of call and that's marginally in the favour of Cullen, their winning legs are basically identical with Cullen getting slightly more four visit kills compared to six, but Cullen's got a point of advantage in losing legs, so moving on.

Evans/Aspinall looks about the same, no bet here. I see a bit over two in three chances for Nathan, not quite 70%, and we're generally being chucked 4/9, 2/5 types of lines. Ricky's got his chances but Nathan is that bit stronger.

DvD/MvG should be a lot of fun, but we're getting the same sorts of lines as above, maybe MvG being a bit shorter with lines floating on the short side of 2/5 rather than the long side. This is maybe slightly short, I've got van Duijvenbode as winning slightly more than one time in three, but we can only get 2/1. 3% worth of edge isn't quite the sort of margin that I'm looking for.

Then there's a second all-English match. Again, this looks like a correct line. This was the last game to be finalised so some bookies are being tardy, but where I am seeing a line it's putting Cross at about 4/6 where I see him having a 59% shot at winning it.

So I won't be back after the quarters, as they all look pretty much spot on, unless they're miraculously misestimating both players in a match (which I doubt, we only found one bet in round two after all), then the semi final lines are likely to be correct. Will have new rankings back later this evening.

ET4 day 3

Before ET4, congrats to Lisa Ashton and Trina Gulliver (didn't expect the latter, that's for sure) for getting the cake in the Women's Series, along with Laura Turner for back to back finals, also to Sebastian Bialecki for winning the Denmark Open, should also give props to Darren Johnson for going deep there as well. In Austria, there were a few odd results, Evans we thought maybe had a chance, and he did punish some slightly off finishing from Heta, while Lerchbacher over Searle is not one I saw coming. Other than that, Razma over de Sousa is an upset of sorts but the former's playing well and the latter's a bit off his best, chuck in 3/17 on doubles and that result happens, also Danny Jansen turning over Luke Humphries is a surprise, even taking into account Jansen has a tour title this year, Luke did literally win one of these things last time up and this is a statement victory - especially with the scoreline, while Danny beat some good players to win his title, a lot of them were deciding legs, so 6-2 is eye opening. Eight games today, let's go straight into it:

Rydz/Bunting - Callan took advantage of Wright missing a few key doubles, while Bunting wasn't really troubled against Smith, one quick leg and some good finishing aside. The market can't split them, I think Bunting's maybe got slightly the better chances, scoring a point per turn better this season and projecting at near 60%. I think it's worth the shot as a result, 0.25u Bunting evs

Jansen/Evans - Plenty would have been looking at this as Searle/Heta, but we get neither, and it is another one that the market cannot decide between. I see this as fairly similar to the last one, Danny's a point a turn better than Ricky is, and has the confidence of a tour win this year - while Ricky again fell short on his chance. 0.25u Jansen evs

Noppert/Clayton - Two major winners collide, Danny with a formidable average against Dimitri where he had no legs off whatsoever, while Clayton was in a bit of a scrappy tussle with de Zwaan, but both are here now and Clayton rates as a bit more than a 60% favourite in the market. I've got it as ever so slightly tighter than that, but it's not enough to make me consider Danny, as always I'll preface that Jonny has done his best work in unranked exbos so maybe he's underrated in my system as a result, just two or three percentage points will make the line perfect for all intents and purposes.

Clemens/Cross - Another missed double exploit here for Gabriel, Brendan missed his chances and Gabriel didn't, while Rob was pretty good in not allowing our sole tip of yesterday many chances of doubles at all, ton average is never anything to sniff at. Market has Rob as a bit more than a two in three favourite, which feels right instinctively, I've got it at just over 70% so that seems fair enough.

Cullen/Ratajski - Krzysztof swept Gosnak as you might have expected to happen, Cullen meanwhile was forced to 4-4 by Jim Williams in a game that looks like it was better quality than the numbers project. Cullen's a marginal favourite in the market and I thought he might have opened shorter, I've got it as pretty much a flip with Ratajski being the one ever so slightly above 50%. Is 13/10 enough of a price to go with it? Maybe not quite, while Krzysztof played well yesterday he wasn't really tested and an Austrian qualifier to a Premier League player is one hell of a shift, so he could get caught out. Maybe.

Razma/Aspinall - Madars as we mentioned took de Sousa out, Aspinall we've not mentioned yet, he kicked away in the mid stages of his match against Plaisier and finished a comfortable victor, despite not putting up amazing numbers outside of doubling, so maybe the scoring was a bit lacking. Nathan is a very short favourite here at 2/5, but hey, I think it's justified. I have said he's been playing well for about half a year now, and I've got him winning at least two in three, so it seems fair enough.

van Gerwen/Wade - MvG didn't look fantastic against Menzies, but got home 6-3, while Wade looked really, really good in a win over Brett Claydon, this straight off the back of a Premier League night win where he beat Michael. As such, 6/4 isn't necessarily what I'd have expected to see for a line on Wade, I've only got him at 35% but it looks like he's in a little bit of a purple patch right now, so easily avoiding it.

Lerchbacher/van Duijvenbode - Final game, Zoran as we mentioned got into a big lead early against Searle and held his nerve to make the final day for what I believe to be the first time, while Dirk was made to work against Rowby who missed darts in multiple legs, which could have easily made the result very different. Dirk projects at three in four wins, he's 1/3. No value here.

So just the two picks, these tips look nothing like in running order, I've just gone off of what oddschecker was listing, but that's what I'm going for.

Saturday, 30 April 2022

ET4 day 2, now with less Ian White

Wow, that was a bit of a wild day, big averages, nine darters missed into the next country, and huge upsets. This is why I try not to bet on stupidly odds on things, with White being 1/9, the breakeven point is 90%. We not only need to be at that to recommend, we need to be above that with a decent edge, and it's so hard to be sure against an unknown. Against a bottom tier card holder who we have data on, that's a different story. Still, Rock and Rodriguez got home, Plaisier nicked us a bit more, van Peer really wasn't close but Wattimena was in the right ballpark. Not going to go through every game, just the ones where I think there's enough value for a bet or comment, if I say nothing the line isn't interesting:

Heta's close. Very close, should maybe be nearer 1/5 but Evans has shown enough flashes that I'll avoid it. Seems about the same as Searle/Lerchbacher in edge, which is 1/5, if not shorter in places.

Aspinall/Plaisier is an intriguing one. Nathan's been playing great, but through injury, Wesley has been playing great, but we lack data, the line feels about right but the data says lay Nathan. Hmm.

Williams is close. Playing well, underrated, Cullen probably overrated. Give me north of 2/1 and not 7/4 and I'd say yes.

Maybe Rowby's close to value? I can see however that the Rock value is disappearing fast, as short as 5/4 in some places against Rob Cross? Really? I mean I'll take 0.25u Rock 29/20 that is there on Ladbrokes as this looks very close to a flip and that's large enough, but come on now.

Was hoping there'd be a bit of Bunting value. Ross hasn't started the year well, Stephen has, and quietly, but with a 65/35 projection and 4/7 odds or there abouts, no thanks.

So just the one punt sadly. Be back tomorrow morning for the last sixteen.

Thursday, 28 April 2022

ET4, this could be a bit of a mess

Busy weekend. There's the Women's Series, which I'm not really that interested in, then there's the WDF event in Denmark where we'll see if Hurrell can go back to back, I think there's a fairly significant UK-based lower level event run by one of the alphabet soup organisers as well, but first and foremost, the PDC rolls into Austria, and it's a bit of a cluster. There's some right random names come through, so calling a lot of these might be tough. Let's go through in running order and see what happens.

Szaganski/Jansen - First up we've got one of the newest (the? Did he win after Williams?) Pro Tour winners, against the latest Pole to get onto the main circuit, and Danny enters as about a 65/35 betting favourite. This year there's about a couple of points between them in the scoring, with Radek trailing as you might expect, but it's close enough that I'm thinking the market assessment is pretty much perfect.

Plaisier/Campbell - This should be a fun one, Wesley's on the back of a great run in the last Euro Tour, while Campbell is on the back of making a Pro Tour final, so both should be feeling confident. The bookies basically can't split them, my model's saying slightly more than 60/40 in favour of Plaisier, but that's going to be from very limited legs won - 28, but in the 52 legs I have on him, he's scoring nearly 93, while Matt's a little bit under 90. I think I'm going to take the small shot here, 0.1u Plaisier 17/20 at Coral/Laddies, if Campbell shows up on stage as he can do it may look silly, but Wes has done that literally this month.

Williams/van Peer - Loading up recent Pro Tour finalists early, Jim comes up against Berry van Peer, who's not had a bad start to the year at all with his scoring over 90 - albeit Jim's is a good couple of points higher, while Berry is in and around the likes of Clemens and Gurney, Williams is near de Sousa, Wade and Noppert. Woof. Jim is extremely consistent and Berry not so much, so while there is a difference in the overall scoring in 2022, the projections actually give Berry a fair chance. I think I'm going to take a small punt given the line, 0.1u van Peer 7/4, I get the feeling he's improving and putting things together, Jim ought to win but maybe not as much as the line suggests.

Rock/Petersen - I saw the line for this and piled on Josh, and I think I'm somewhat vindicated in trusting my gut looking at my phone in the pub without my data model. That says Rock nearly three in four, and we can get 8/13. This is a great play, especially when you consider that Devon's win percentage is inflated by wild inconsistency. 0.5u Rock 8/13

Evans/Engstrom - Johan is a known name and won the Nordic qualifier, but hasn't got any data in 2022, having not got deep in either of the Nordic events so far this season. Ricky's 4/11, that looks fair enough to me. Johan didn't break 90 in that qualifier, so with Ricky looking like he's turned a corner, this seems like a safe enough but not really worth considering a punt spot.

Razma/Rasztovits - First of the players to come through the home nation qualifier, and it's the experienced Rasztovits, who's averaged basically the same low 80's score throughout in the quali which you feel will not trouble someone of Madars' calibre. Sure, that's going to be deflated by the general low quality of the field with Suljovic and Lerchbacher having cards and moving straight in and both the good Rodriguez brothers playing the main quali, but it really does seem like the sort of spot where the market saying Razma 70/30 is correct.

Beaton/Menzies - Kind of getting the feeling we're running out of times that we'll see Steve on a big stage of any kind (at least until, or if, he tries the seniors when he eventually loses his card), so I think we need to enjoy it while it lasts, and he's been given a tough draw in Cameron, who's off the back of a decent WDF worlds run and I project as a 55/45 favourite on 2022 data. He's 4/5, guess what that works out at.

White/Gosnak - Ian's got another of the home nation qualifiers and it's a completely new name to me. Patrik had a best average of 84 in a first round game against Armin Glanzer, who I've at least heard of, then went downhill from there against Kallinger and then another complete random who seemed to completely shit the bed in the final. Ian is 1/9, meh. I don't see any realistic way that Ian loses the match, but it's just so short that I can't justify saying put a huge amount on.

Burger/Rydz - Pretty much a similar spot here, except Burger's at least a known name having played the worlds a couple of times, albeit over a decade ago in both cases now. Callan's almost as short as White is, they appear fairly similar in level with Ian maybe being a little bit more inconsistent, Dietmar actually put in a 91 average in the last qualifying round, which is enough to put me off any sort of gamble here.

Tricole/Lerchbacher - More Austrians incoming against the recent WDF world finalist. We've got a decent amount of data on Thibault, over 180 legs this year, and he's consistent but consistently not doing a tremendous amount of heavy scoring, and Zoran, on pretty limited data, is a couple of points higher. The bookies can't split them, and I don't want to try either, particularly with Zoran being at home.

Martinez/Clemens - I think this'll be the first look I get at Tony, and Clemens is going to be a very tough test and Gabriel opens as a 75/25 favourite. Clemens is a bit up and down of late and scoring right on the 90 mark, which is over three points more than the Spaniard, which isn't that much and I'm a little bit tempted at 3/1. The projections love Tony, giving him over 40%, which would normally be a no brainer, but he has wild inconsistency, having the third highest of any card holder with decent sample size, so as this being a significant game, I can avoid this, but Gabriel may not have this entirely his own way.

Noppert/Wattimena - A while ago this could have been a last 32 match in a major, now it's an opening game on the Euro Tour. Seems fairly likely that we have seen the last of the Noppert value train and that is gone forever, but has the market overadjusted? He is close to a 75/25 market favourite. He is better, yes, but I don't think he's that much better than Jermaine, who's seemingly climbing out of the nadir of his form, and this year is actually only about a point and a half behind Danny in overall scoring, with a bit better consistency. Model says 60/40 - I could believe this, and will take the shot, 0.1u Wattimena 14/5, the risk/reward to go small here seems a no brainer.

de Zwaan/Suljovic - The middle of the evening session is packed with big names and we've got another Dutchie looking to climb back from bad form and he's up against the ultimate home favourite in Mensur. This projects at around the same line with Mensur being 60/40 ahead - there's less than a point between them and both are very consistent, Jeffrey especially so, although that might be a little bit down to not finishing his won legs that quickly and he's the second name off the list with a winning average below 90 when sorting by overall average. Mensur is 4/7, so there's not the edge, but I'm not putting Suljovic in any multiples.

Bunting/Sedlacek - Didn't these two play each other fairly recently? I don't know. Karel's back again, Bunting has seemingly been a bit under the radar in 2022, but is scoring well enough that he's slap bang in the middle of 60% and two in three win chances. Tough draw for Sedlacek, well, both really. Karel's a little bit undervalued, but not by much.

Claydon/Sturm - What on earth do we do with this. Claydon is scoring 86. Sturm is basically unknown who had a good 5-0 sweep with an 87 average, but then dropped below 75 in each of the last two rounds, albeit getting no help from his opponents. Brett is 1/4. Let's just avoid this altogether.

Labanauskas/Rodriguez - Final game, and Darius might be in a tough spot here against Rowby on home soil who has been outscoring him by more than a couple of points this season. Bookies can't split them, I don't see why as I'm thinking Rowby should grab this maybe two in three. 0.25u Rodriguez evs

Saturday, 23 April 2022

2022 Second/Third Division Darts results

Division 2:

Ryan Searle 10.40
Dimitri van den Bergh 10.23
Rob Cross 9.81
Luke Humphries 9.43
Damon Heta 9.25
Jose de Sousa 9.23
Chris Dobey 9.00
Dirk van Duijvenbode 8.39
Dave Chisnall 7.44
Krzysztof Ratajski 6.82

Division 3:

Ryan Meikle 10.50
Keane Barry 10.00
Martin Schindler 9.50
Rusty Jake Rodriguez 9.23
Adam Hunt 9.06
William Borland 9.00
Rowby John Rodriguez 8.50
Steve Lennon 8.17
Callan Rydz 8.05
Ted Evetts 8.00

Results:

PC1 - Ryan Searle 6-1 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Luke Humphries 8-4 Ryan Searle (2), Rowby John Rodriguez 6-3 Martin Schindler (3)
PC2 - No games
PC3 - Keane Barry 6-2 Adam Hunt (3)
PC4 - Krzsyztof Ratajski 6-5 Dave Chisnall (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 7-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Ryan Meikle 6-4 Callan Rydz (3)
ET1 - No games
UK Open - Ryan Searle 10-8 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Ryan Meikle 6-0 Rowby John Rodriguez (3)
ET2 - Rob Cross 6-3 Dirk van Duijvenbode (2), Dimitri van den Bergh 6-1 Ryan Searle (2)
PC5 - Rob Cross 6-4 Luke Humphries (2), Damon Heta 7-4 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Adam Hunt 6-5 Callan Rydz (3)
PC6 - Martin Schindler 6-5 Callan Rydz (3)
PC7 - Dirk van Duijvenbode 6-5 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Rusty Jake Rodriguez 6-5 Martin Schindler (3)
PC8 - Adam Hunt 6-3 Steve Lennon (3), Martin Schindler 6-0 Rowby John Rodriguez (3)
PC9 - No games
PC10 - Damon Heta 6-4 Dave Chisnall (2), Jose de Sousa 6-5 Luke Humphries (2), Damon Heta 6-3 Dimitri van den Bergh (2), Rowby John Rodriguez 6-2 Ted Evetts (3)
PC11 - Rob Cross 6-4 Krzysztof Ratajski (2), Ryan Searle 7-6 Rob Cross (2)
PC12 - Luke Humphries 6-3 Dave Chisnall (2), Ryan Searle 6-5 Luke Humphries (2), Ryan Searle 7-2 Damon Heta (2), Dirk van Duijvenbode 8-7 Ryan Searle (2)
PC13 - No games
ET3 - No games

Bit of a belated ET3 roundup

Been extremely busy, so taking a bit of a break over the last week. Huge congrats to both the finalists, Luke Humphries for yet another stepping stone to what many think will be an inevitable major, that semi final was just spectacular, and also to Martin Lukeman who overcame many hugely underrated opponents and has thrown himself right into the picture for all the TV majors. Will start with a quick FRH rankings check:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Jonny Clayton
7 Rob Cross
8 Gary Anderson
9 Jose de Sousa
10 Danny Noppert
11 Ryan Searle (UP 1)
12 Joe Cullen (DOWN 1)
13 Luke Humphries (UP 1)
14 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
16 Nathan Aspinall (UP 1)
17 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
18 Damon Heta (UP 1)
19 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 3)
20 Mervyn King

I didn't post an update after the last Pro Tour weekend before Munich, so there's three tournaments worth of movement to look at here. Searle moves ahead of Cullen having reached a final (his previous bink was incorporated into the last set of rankings). Humphries we expected. Chizzy sliding is a little bit more of an odd one until you look at who has passed him - the two winners from the last Pro Tour weekend, and then Heta getting a semi final in the Euro Tour as well as another deep Pro Tour run, while Chisnall had a fairly quiet couple of weekends.

Lower down, Schindler is now into the top 40 with Durrant slipping out as expected. Lukeman's final puts him into the top 75, in a little group of players with Keegan Brown and Scott Waites who've also not had a bad couple of weeks. Matt Campbell jumps into the top 80, while Wesley Plaisier re-enters the list at #166. For those interested, the list currently contains 289 players who've made ranking money in the last two years, James Hubbard currently occupying the last spot.

We've got the Scottish Open going on right now, looks like a pretty big field so will keep an eye on it and continue to build non-PDC data to help us (was hoping to see more of Littler but he's gone out extremely early just now), there's a whole bunch of Euro Tour qualifiers going on right now, then we'll tool up for Austria - it looks like an exceptionally strong set of Pro Tour qualifiers with eleven PDC ranking winners, along with several more that have made finals, you've got Suljovic and Lerchbacher getting free passes to the event, Sedlacek's going to be back again, and the real fun thing is that van Gerwen and Clayton are seeded in such a way that they would meet in the last sixteen - the top half containing Price, Aspinall, Humphries, Dolan, MvG, Clayton, Cullen and DvD means this could easily open up for Wright or any number of players in the other half.

Will look to update (start?) the Second/Third Division Darts rankings, as I've put it off for too long and there's far too much to catch up on already.

Monday, 18 April 2022

ET3 quarters

Nice little earner on Humphries, which takes us back to a small profit for the tournament - we're down to eight players now, let's have a quick scan:

Lukeman/Schindler - Huge game for both, market seems to have Schindler as a solid, better than two in three favourite. That seems ever so slightly too short, I don't see Schindler up at 65%, and in 2022, it's closer to 60% than 65%. That said, with the vig in the market I can't recommend a play on Lukeman, particularly in what should be a charged atmosphere which to the best of my knowledge would be new to him.

Heta/Clayton - Why is Clayton the favourite here? Damon's really fucking good, and he's 6/4 in all markets? I've got him as a small favourite over six month data, in 2022 it grows from 54% to 59%. That's a big edge and I'm making the play, 0.25u Heta 6/4, there's always a risk he does something like he did in the UK Open at this stage, but I don't think anyone can realistically say Clayton is a significantly better player that he takes it 60% of the time.

Brown/van Gerwen - Nice run for Keegan, but it surely comes to an end here. I don't see him as having much more than a one in five shot, lowering to one in six when we look at more form-based samples, and he's not exactly put up amazing stats here outside of his first round win against Hunt. 1/5 looks to be a very fair price.

Humphries/Plaisier - Can the dream run for Wesley continue? Humphries is going to be a fairly large roadblock if it is to be the case, with Luke coming in at the 75-80% range for all games. The price is a bit shorter than Dirk was, but Humphries seems like an extremely similar player to Dirk over six months, in 2022 he's finishing legs a couple of points per turn better, so maybe it's fair enough? If I could get, say, 7/2 on Plaisier I'd take the flier, but we can't even get 3/1 right now, so I'll keep an eye out but not recommend a play.

ET3 round 3

Bit of carnage yesterday with Price withdrawing, Wright going down and six other seeds dropping. We thought at the outset that a lot of qualifiers might come through and that's exactly what happened. As such it's a bit disappointing to go 0-3 on bets, but it wasn't too bad, Peer just blew it in leg seven, Krcmar did everything he had to apart from go out in fifteen in the decider, while Clayton was basically unplayable. Eight matches, let's rattle through them:

Barry/Lukeman - Huge opportunity for both here, appears very close on my ratings, which give Barry 53% chances regardless of timeframe - he is 8/11 which is correctly showing him as a small favourite and the vig makes no bets possible here. Should be a good one to start off.

Schindler/Searle - Feels like we've seen this matchup a few times recently, could just be me imagining it (I know Searle did own someone that we often bet on in a recent Pro Tour, was that Schindler?) I guess. Market favours Searle slightly better than 60/40, in the last six months that appears close to perfect, but just in 2022 Ryan actually projects to winning just over two in three - although this doesn't take into account Schindler's extremely good consistency score (and, by contrast, Searle's fairly high value). There wasn't enough edge to bet before that so it's an easy pass.

Waites/Heta - Scott pulled out the big upset yesterday and it only gets slightly easier, if that, against Heta, who saw off Barney by the one break in ten. 1/3 might actually be small value for Damon here, I'd have thought it to be 1/4 based on the last six months, if you look at just 2022, maybe it should be even shorter, but Waites has got to be the most confident he's been in a long time after yesterday's result, so I think I can avoid it.

Clayton/Hopp - Jonny was excellent against Chisnall in round two, while Hopp looked alright against Dimitri, but maybe not quite at his best. Didn't need to be with the Belgian lacking a bit of scoring. Clayton is a very short 1/5, on 2022 form that looks just about spot on. Expand the data set a little and it could even possibly be a little bit shorter.

Razma/Brown - This has opened up nicely for these (at least for one round), Razma dumped out de Sousa and Brown put away Rydz, it's a tricky one to call, over the last six months I've got Brown as a moderate (say mid 50% range) favourite, whereas in 2022 I've got Razma having the edge, but by a smaller margin. Wouldn't want to pick a winner here, with the bookies being unable to split them either, we can simply move on and ignore it.

van Gerwen/Cross - Michael needed a bit of a get out of jail card against Dobey, 5-3 down but got away with it, Chris' best chance coming in leg nine where given eighteen darts he could only generate two darts at double (which he obviously missed). Cross was in a small bit of trouble against Sedlacek early but powered away despite missing a lot of doubles. Market doesn't quite have van Gerwen as a two in three favourite, I see 62% in the last six months which seems about right, but only 57% in 2022, 13/8 Cross isn't quite long enough to consider this, but if we had to bet, it would be on Rob.

Smith/Humphries - Another game that should be fun, Smith maybe a little bit fortunate to have been gifted the key break by van Peer, Humphries was admittedly not at his best against de Zwaan but did enough to move through, and the market has these two very close, Smith at around the 55/45 favourite. It's flippy over the last six months, but in 2022 Luke becomes a solid favourite - just over 60%. I think there is enough here to take a poke, 0.25u Humphries 11/10, is actually slightly longer on betway.

Plaisier/van Duijvenbode - Talked about Dirk's game earlier, but Wesley got another big scalp in Cullen, not quite the blockbuster averages we saw in round one, but there were 14 missed darts at double which will have dragged things down a bit. Dirk's 4/9, that feels about right, we're obviously still lacking data on Plaisier but he's shown enough that grabbing this one in three seems a reasonable projection.

That's it, should be back later for the quarters.

Sunday, 17 April 2022

ET3 round 2 evening session

We continue...

van den Bergh/Hopp - Max came through against Soutar, not the most convincing of performances however and will need to step his game up against Dimitri, this feels like one where Dimitri being a best price of 1/4 is very accurate. Going to be an extremely tough game for Hopp here. But hey, with the German crowd, who knows?

Heta/van Barneveld - Raymond looked OK yesterday but he wasn't really tested so hard to read anything into this, Heta is actually shorter than 1/2 so his game is being respected - or maybe the market thinks Barney is a spent force? Looks fine though, got Damon at 70% on the last six months form and over 75% in 2022. Should still be a good game.

Clemens/Lukeman - Martin was a bit up and down yesterday, didn't hit the quality we knew he can produce, but as Gawlas concentrated all his good arrows into three legs, it didn't really matter. Clemens is up next having been promoted into the seeds and is only around a 60/40 favourite, even closer in some markets. That seems spot on to be honest, whatever sample I look at Lukeman is just a shade better than 40% to claim the match, so will move on to game four.

Price/Barry - Which will be a fun one. Gerwyn is Gerwyn, questionable new walk on and everything, Keane was in, shall we say, an ugly match against Lukas Wenig with missed doubles galore. Price is typically 2/7, that looks around the right ballpark. Six month data, maybe it's a little long, 2022 data, maybe it's a little short, split the difference and it's fine.

Wright/Waites - The second player trading for the world number one spot up next, up against Scott Waites who only allowed Horvat one dart at double (on the end of a 160 out lol) despite averaging under 90. Wright is even shorter than Price is in the previous game, looking at the last six months and Waites was hovering over 20% so more or less right at the point where 7/2 is a fair price, but he drops off a bit once you cut out the tail end of 2021. Can't bet this one.

van Gerwen/Dobey - 30 dart breaks lol. Dobey looked OK but nothing more, he comes in at 2/1 against MvG. Honestly, if you gave me this price straight after the worlds I'd take it, but since then, van Gerwen's form has increased and Dobey has tailed off slightly to the point where the line looks spot on, if he'd been truly convincing yesterday then maybe, but 22 missed darts at a double, albeit most of them in one leg, jesus.

Searle/Baggish - Another missed double fest in round one, Danny missed 18, Junghans also missed a bunch, averages both under 80, it's not a good omen facing someone with the quality and form of Searle, who's rated at 83% over the last six months, and in 2022, the projections basically say Baggish wins one in about 15. Ouch. Do I want to take 1/5? I mean it looks safe enough, but there's enough margin for weird stuff to happen that I don't want to lump on. Your mileage may vary.

Smith/van Peer - Final game, Berry got into a surprisingly good game against Larsson, but Smith is an enormous step up and he's the same sort of silly odds on price that we've seen a few times tonight. Except wait, hold on. Over the last six months, Berry projects to win 30%. In 2022, it's 40%. What the heck? I can't see any consistency issues (he's within a quarter of a point of Smith) and I can't see any obvious data errors. Seems to be worth the flyer given a 95 average yesterday. 0.1u van Peer 3/1

ET3 round 2 tips

Small profit yesterday. Barney and van Peer won as expected - Larsson was a fair bit better than we thought, but Wilson was clearly struggling, maybe we could have gone larger in retrospect. Hopp got the job done, Hunt not so much, while Meikle... he wasn't that far off. Missed a dart at double in the first, looks like he should have got more having 116 left with Chizzy not on a finish but seems like he got a bounceout. Then in leg four he had half a chance missing a dart for a twelve. Get just one of those and it's 5-5. Oh well. Looks like oddschecker is shitting the bed again so going to have to jank it up with a bunch of tabs open, let's see.

Rydz/Brown - Keegan didn't look too bad in an easy win yesterday and gets another north east player first up, Callan is rightly the favourite but maybe slightly too short, we can't get 1/2 and I'm only seeing him with low 60% winrates regardless of sample used. 15/8 on Betfair is hence moderately tempting, but I don't think there's quite the edge there.

Cross/Sedlacek - Touched on this one slightly earlier given we know Karel got a bye, he's clearly playing very well and in my eyes should nick this one out of three times. The best we're getting is 13/5 though, which really isn't the odds I'm after. Is this the market overreacting to Sedlacek's form? Continuing to sleep on Cross? A bit of both? Regardless, we're not betting this one and Rob can definitely not be considered for any accas.

van Duijvenbode/Krcmar - Boris got home first game in a little bit of a scrappy affair against Woodhouse, and faces a much tougher opponent who is in form and priced as such, a best price of 2/5 is short. Longer data I see Boris having 35% chances, in 2022 data it's up to 40%. I think with Hills being on the DvD hype train more than most we can take a small stab here, 0.1u Krcmar 9/4, just small as if Dirk continues where he left off last weekend he may well be unplayable, but Boris with confidence, which he should have given he's got a win, can be a handful.

de Sousa/Razma - Madars won a swingy game against Huybrechts, capping it off with a showpiece 150 out to win the match, and now faces Jose, and can we say of late that he's that much better than Kim is? We can get as much as 9/4 on him, is that worth the shot? Actually, not really. Longer form puts Jose at 70%, more like one in three on this season, so I'll pass on it.

Cullen/Plaisier - Wesley moved through with the performance of the round, a 104 average is certainly going to draw some attention. If someone can play like that, we're definitely not interested in Cullen at 1/4, question is do we want to go the other way? It's tempting, it has to be said, but a big reason why a lot of associates are associates is consistency, do we really think he's going to back it up? Good luck if he does.

Humphries/de Zwaan - Jeffrey came through an entertaining game against VvdV with both in the mid 90's and Jeffrey needing to come from 5-4 down - although Vincent completely shit the bed on throw at that point, leaving 283 after twelve is saying "break me please" and de Zwaan did. This should be another entertaining game played at a great pace, but I think what looked to be Humphries at a prohibitively short price is actually accurate - over 6 months worth of data I only see Jeffrey at 22% chances. This season it's even worse. It's hard to imagine that given the quality of player that we know de Zwaan is and the performance he put in yesterday, but that's where we're at, Luke is actually quite good.

Dolan/Schindler - Martin easily dealt with Wattimena, got up early then after a small fightback powered away to a 6-3 win and now faces Brendan, who's always going to be a tough opponent but one whose pace I think ought to benefit Martin somewhat. Market says pick em, over the four books I'm looking at, we can't get evens on either player in any of them. Longer data favours Dolan ever so slightly, 2022 data actually favours Dolan a bit more where we might even consider a bet, but that seems counterintuitive and there is a fair bit of a consistency differential here. Schindler, of all players who've played over 200 legs in 2022, has the fourth best consistency rating, which for new readers, I'm defining as taking away the scoring in legs lost from the scoring in legs won. Only Scott Williams, Soutar and de Zwaan are better there (so, looking at that, maybe Jeffrey has a bit more of a chance in the previous game?)

Clayton/Chisnall - Kind of surprised this one didn't get picked up for the evening session, but it does look a fairly stacked card. Dave did what he had to do, talked about the game earlier, let's get straight into the market, Clayton is shorter than 1/2. Wow. I see Dave as having 36% on six months data, which indicates that the line is not backable on that sample, albeit Clayton favoured, but in 2022, it's 44%. So 2/1 on someone with that winning chance who hit >50% doubles, six maxes and a 98 average yesterday? Yes please, 0.1u Chisnall 2/1

I will post the evening session up in another post in the next hour, conscious we're close to the off so want to get the tips out even though we don't touch the first two games.

Saturday, 16 April 2022

ET3 round 1 tips

Krcmar/Woodhouse - Seems a genuinely tight one to call. The markets slightly favour Krcmar, I think this is fair based on six month's data, in 2022 it leans towards possibly being small value, but not enough to consider a bet, especially considering Krcmar's stage record.

Larsson/van Peer - We've got very little to go on for Larsson, but what we do recall is that he doesn't really score strongly enough to have a massive chance at this level. Berry scoring at 89 ought to be more than enough. At the odds we're offered though? I think it's worth the shot, 0.25u van Peer 8/15

Lukeman/Gawlas - This is priced up surprisingly closely, but checking the data, it seems Gawlas might be a bit closer to Lukeman than I first thought, meaning that the generally available 8/11 isn't the slam dunk bet I thought it would be. Oh well.

Plaisier/Williams - Jim's a huge favourite here and I basically have nothing recent on Wesley, his Q-School numbers don't actually look too bad, whether they'll convert to a result against someone as steady as Jim, I don't know. 13/5 is fairly tempting, but with Jim playing as he is, I'll pass, this might be closer than the market expects though.

Brown/Hunt - Interesting mix of one player maybe returning to form and another being off the boil. Keegan is shorter than 1/2, which seems really one sided, on 2022 data I've got Adam at over 40%, but the last six months the line is made out to be fair? Urgh, that's not the endorsement I was looking for. 2022 data indicates a small flyer seems fine, 0.1u Hunt 2/1, Keegan might be playing better but there's still a bit of pressure to get big results like this, he is after all some way off retaining his card.

Horvat/Waites - Going to need to look to Q-School data for Horvat here, and his numbers are not convincing. We know he can have a great spell where he'll kill two legs in 25 darts or something like that, but it's the consistency that's always been the problem. Waites I think should be far too solid, I could go with the same logic as the van Peer bet, it is a similar price, but we know Dragutin is a bit better than Daniel is, so will pass.

O'Shea/Dobey - Chris is a huge favourite. Coming in at over 80% on six months data, over 75% on 2022 data. I was kind of hoping for it to be a little bit tighter given Dobey has been a little bit up and down, but there's nothing there to justify a punt.

Huybrechts/Razma - Six month data puts Huybrechts at 63%, 2022 at 59%, that's kind of what I'd expect, Kim's the stronger all round player but outside of a couple of blips Razma seems to have started off 2022 well. With the Latvian at 7/4, we can't really consider punting one way or another as the edges needed are simply absent.

Soutar/Hopp - Similarly priced match here with Soots coming in as the favourite, Max is needing results, and on six months data he is projected to win basically one in three exactly, so 6/4 is not a tempter. However, on 2022 data, he improves to 45%, so trending very much in the right direction. I'm going to take a small stab here, 0.1u Hopp 6/4, this is very much speculative based on short form data, but he's shown some signs, clearly plays better on stage and in Germany as well, so there's a few things that are working in Max's favour in this one.

Baggish/Junghans - We've got nothing on Thomas, Baggish is 2/5, Danny is not putting up anywhere near the numbers where we can think that this is in any way safe - despite Junghans not averaging over 80 at Q-School. Could be a game where weird things happen and I want no piece of it.

Barry/Wenig - We've got enough data on Lukas to get a decent read, he's just not a high enough scorer to realistically threaten Keane in this one. Five visit percentage is extremely low, although he'll finish in six a lot of the time. That's not going to cut it, Barry is around 70-75% in the market which feels right.

de Zwaan/van der Voort - Big year for Jeffrey this, and he enters this game against van der Voort as a small underdog. I get 40% on six months data and 43% on 2022 data, so 13/10 isn't an exciting punt, then again Vincent is in no way a big enough favourite that we want to take the weak odds offered.

Schindler/Wattimena - Maybe Jermaine has got a bit more of a chance than advertised here. My six month stats call this a coinflip, and 2022 data still gives him more than 45%. Do we want to take 6/4? I'm thinking not, this seems like one where the confidence of the two players will count for a bit more than the raw numbers, the crowd will be into it at this stage, I might regret passing on Wattimena but it's what I'm going to do.

van Barneveld/Wilson - I'm close to taking Barney on this one. I see straight in the middle of 75% and 80%, Unibet have 2/5 while most places have 1/3. Actually, I will go for that price - 0.25u van Barneveld 2/5, that only needs 71% to break even, we have a fair bit more than that, and there's reason to believe James isn't at 100%. It's only Unibet having it a bit closer than others that is generating the bet, don't take any shorter.

Meikle/Chisnall - This is priced way off, Meikle on longer form has over a 40% shot and is 38% on 2022 data, 0.1u Meikle 11/4, Ryan has too much quality and will show it often enough to take this price.

That's the lot, back later for round two.

Friday, 15 April 2022

Ten things to watch for in ET3

Ah, this is the one that starts on a Saturday, so we've already got a draw out and can have a bit of a look in advance. Will posts up bets this evening, possibly Saturday morning. Will hold off on new FRH rankings until after Munich is done, but I do hope that if anyone read the previous post, they were able to pick out Aspinall last weekend and get a nice payday. So, without further ado, what to watch for:

1) Can anyone stop MvG reaching the final?

Looks to be a much easier half than the top half which has got both the other big two, Clayton, Heta and quite a few of the more dangerous qualifiers. Cross will be a potential last 16 danger (if he gets through Sedlacek which is in no way guaranteed), but this looks like a great chance for van Gerwen to add to his Euro Tour total. Ironically the toughest match could be against a possible Chris Dobey first up if he beats John O'Shea, assuming Dobey gets a couple of dodgy weeks out of his system.

2) Who out of Krcmar and Woodhouse will win?

A little bit of an odd one for number 2, but this one jumped off the page to me. Two players in the lower reaches of the top 64, who we know are capable of putting up great performances but have yet to kick on, particularly Boris in stage events. I'm not sure who'll take this, but it's going to be a fascinating tie to watch.

3) Can Hopp save his card?

Max is in a world of trouble to try to sort this one out, barely holding it last season and down twenty grand in the race as it stands. Soutar's a tough first round ask, but maybe not playing quite as well as he was twelve months ago, so it's not an impossible ask for Hopp on home soil, and Dimitri in round two isn't the hardest seed he could potentially play. Making bank at these Euro Tours seems to be the only real way for him to avoid Q-School.

4) Can Schindler make a run?

Another German thing to watch out for, Martin's been getting deeper and deeper into Pro Tours, and doesn't have the worst of draws - Wattimena's getting a little bit better and can be dangerous, but Dolan as a seed in round two is by no means the worst, and while Searle can be an awfully tricky opponent, it is not out of Martin's capabilities to win that one.

5) Meikle v Chisnall should be fun

This is another first round game that jumps off the page. Dave we know can play incredible stuff, but has dropped a touch under the radar since his worlds semi final, while Ryan is also an incredibly capable player, this is one of those where if they both click we could see a 105 average lose. It's also one where if Ryan doesn't turn up and Dave misses some doubles, they could both be down in the eighties. We just don't know what we'll get.

6) Can Sedlacek do anything?

Karel's in the middle of an amazing purple patch right now where he's made a bunch of Euro Tours and looks very threatening, and is the recipient of a bye after the confusing withdrawal of Krzysztof Ratajski, so will go straight into a second round game against Rob Cross, with the winner to play MvG (probably). This is a real chance to set out a marker as to how good his game really is against a multiple major champion, with the opportunity to then face one of the best in the world. It'd be great to see.

7) What will Baggish do?

I am not sure whether this is Danny's first Euro Tour, but I think it is. He's always seemed a bit more comfortable on the stage and hasn't truly replicated what he's capable of there on the floor - so this ought to be a decent spot with a favourable draw against the associate qualifier Junghans, who's not an unfamiliar name, but not one I've seen for a bit of time to be honest.

8) Could it be Smith's time?

I talked first about how van Gerwen could easily walk the bottom half, but let's talk about his opposing quarter briefly. This looks like a really good opportunity for him. As the number 3 seed, he has either Larsson, who won the Nordic/Baltic qualifier, or van Peer first up, which has to be said to be fairly favourable, then the other seed in his quarter are Humphries directly opposite, then Cullen or van Duijvenbode. None of these are gimmies (particularly if Dirk plays like he did when winning another Pro Tour where he looked unstoppable), but it is avoiding the truly big names, and they are the sorts of games where if Smith is to take himself seriously, he should be putting away. Then, from the semi finals onwards, who knows?

9) Any other qualifiers to watch?

Martin Lukeman's been making a bit of a name for himself and we've picked up on him a few times, he gets the exciting young Czech, Adam Gawlas (surely their country finally wins a game at the World Cup this year), then gets the promoted #16 seed in Gabriel Clemens. Decent opportunity. Keane Barry gets Lukas Wenig then Gerwyn Price if he gets through that, you would think Keane gets through and could give Price a solid test. Huybrechts against Razma with the winner to face de Sousa is interesting, de Zwaan's shown a little bit of a return but a Dutch derby against van der Voort is extremely tricky for a first round game. Jim Williams doesn't have a bad draw, getting perennial associate qualifier Wesley Plaisier before Joe Cullen. I think most of the others that could do damage have already been mentioned.

10) Seeds in danger?

Dolan against Schindler or Wattimena has to be one. Clemens against Lukeman is another tough ask. Heta isn't a name you'd normally expect to see in this sort of list, but assuming Barney beats James Wilson (is he injured again?), then it's not the sort of name you can take for granted. Clayton is not a guaranteed win against either Chisnall or Meikle. If Soutar or Hopp show their best, either could take out Dimitri. As mentioned in the above paragraph, de Sousa could easily struggle against Huybrechts or Razma. van Gerwen against a peak Dobey is one that ought to be much, much closer than the market would say, question is if we get a peak Dobey. Cross can't take Sedlacek lightly. Dirk's looking really good of late, but would not be a guaranteed win against either opponent. This could be one where we see lots of seeds fall, maybe half the field or close to a European Tour record, would need quite a few things to fall into place, but the chances are there.

Check back within 24 hours for first round tips. Also huge congrats to Neil Duff and Beau Greaves for closing out the WDF titles, there were some great games in the later stages that are well worth viewing.

Friday, 8 April 2022

Each way value 2 - Electric Boogaloo

One thing I did do before PC9 kicked off was to copypasta the Betfair market, what I'll do now is scan through and tier the players and give some thoughts as to the respective values. I think it was mostly a full field barring Suljovic, who I assume would be priced up in and around the 100/1 stage at this point, so I'll group him in that conversation.

>10% chance

6/1 van Gerwen, 7/1 Price, Wright, 8/1 Clayton

You're probably not going to be picking any of these each way, but with the general parity that's in the field right now, either of van Gerwen and Price look decent value. Wright and Clayton maybe not so much, I've stated a few times that Clayton's best work has been in unranked events, as such he may be undervalued, but he's basically on a par with Wright over the last six months, so I'll drag Wright out from the "probably value" conversation.

>4% chance

16/1 Smith, 20/1 van den Bergh, Cullen, Anderson, 22/1 Heta

Heta seems like the clear value out of this selection. He remains in the top five of scoring across the last six months and is a threat to go deep in any event he enters, so he'll remain on our safe each way list. Of the rest, Smith and Anderson have basically the same stats, Ando slightly better so be inclined to lean that way of the two - DvdB is about half a point behind these and Cullen's a further half point back. Maybe Joe's at the stage where he is overrate, van den Bergh the same?

>2% chance

25/1 Cross, 33/1 Wade, Humphries, Searle, 40/1 Rydz, Noppert, Aspinall

We're now getting to the stage where you're going to want to start to look at the draw and lean towards those players that are in favourable quarters - of those big four, it's often the case that two of them are in the same quarter given the relative position of Clayton, leaving one of the quarters potentially easier - and one harder. Aspinall is the pick of these despite being the longest, he is actually up at third in scoring in the last six months now which is quite remarkable, although we have noticed him picking up form at the back end of 2021. Cross is also top 10, and you can throw a blanket over Rydz, Humphries and Searle in the top sixteen. Noppert is right on their heels, but Wade is a fair bit further back. These don't seem too badly priced, although Wade seems unbackable at that price.

>1% chance

50/1 de Sousa, Ratajski, Chisnall, Dobey, van Duijvenbode, 66/1 Gurney, Lewis, 80/1 Barry, Bunting, Schindler

There's a real hotch-potch of names here of varying quality, form and history, so let's pick through the best bets. Dobey of these seems clear, he is only behind MvG, Price, Aspinall and Heta in the last six months so keep piling on (although he's had a bit of a downturn in the last couple of weeks by the looks of things). Ratajski remains in and around the top sixteen levels of scoring, with Schinder and van Duijvenbode at around the same marker. This kind of shows how much the market has caught up with Martin. All of these seem clearly better value than a Cullen or a Noppert. Bunting's a little bit further back, de Sousa and Chisnall are about half a point back again, so pick Bunting of those three clearly, that leaves Gurney, Lewis and Barry. The first two are identical in scoring (albeit with different profiles, Adie being more inconsistent) at a step below Bunting, so are easily avoided despite Daryl appearing to be on an upsurge, then that just leaves Barry, who while he has all the potential in the world is clearly overly hyped at this stage and you can't consider him.

>0.5% chance

100/1 White, van Barneveld, Clemens, Whitlock, Dolan, King, chuck Suljovic in here, 150/1 Ross Smith, Hempel, Williams, Hughes, O'Connor, Joyce, van der Voort, Soutar, Huybrechts, Evans, Rock, 175/1 Scutt

Here you're looking for a combination of decent recent form, a good draw, and ideally having been there before. Scanning down the scoring as to where we first see anyone on this list, Rock and Dolan are the first names to come up. Rock might be slightly getting the Barry treatment in that the hyping is getting a little bit silly, but he is playing that well, and while Dolan may be not quite as good as he was twelve months ago, he's still in with a shot. Barney's below 92 in scoring, but can easily win on any day he wants so I don't think 100/1 is necessarily bad. Williams obviously already has a bink this year and the numbers support him, he's a bit more consistent than Barney and less than a quarter of a point behind. Outside of these, there's not a huge number of great picks - Smith and Huybrechts are the next two names out of the pot, you'd obviously prefer Kim given that Ross hasn't had a great start to the season, Kim's got the A-game to go deep in one of these. White and Suljovic aren't far behind, but their level of play is a couple of points off what it was in 2019 and they've gone some time without results, so it's hard to back them. O'Connor and Hughes are the only other names on the list scoring above 90, they both have Pro Tour binks, Jamie's nowhere near the level he was when he first moved to the PDC but at least looks to be trending upwards, while O'Connor was always swingy but appears to be bringing his best game more often. Quite a few of these names are only just under 90, but I think you can look at any of these and come up with a reason not to back them.

<0.5% chance

Everyone else, not going to list them all. I'm just going to roll through the rankings list and see who comes up. Gilding is the first name out, he was 300/1 before PC9, but there were already a couple of articles out pointing out he was in form, and then he's hit a final, so he may now be a bit too short. Sedlacek, if getting a call up, looks to be worth the play assuming over 200/1. Rowby was 200/1, same as Vandenbogaerde, they look pretty similar statistically, Rodriguez seems to have tidied up his consistency quite a lot and Mario's got a world of experience in floor tournaments. Other players over 90 in scoring have been Wattimena and Krcmar (both 200/1), Boulton at 300/1, Doets and Brown at 250/1, Menzies at 200/1, then Lowe and Mitchell at 250/1. These don't seem like exciting names, but they're either solid floor competitors, in form, or off their peak but we know have course and distance in these, albeit some time ago. Obviously you need to look at the draws at this stage, you're going to have to beat seeds at some point, but clearly pick your poison - aim for the player that's got a non-seed round one and then a weaker seed round 2. It doesn't matter if van Gerwen is on your board, but why throw yourself into that option in round one? Give other players a couple of shots to get the KO, it does happen. Heck, he's lost to Gary Blades this year.

Below the 90 scoring you're really punting, so you want to look for something else. Luke Woodhouse isn't far off, and is someone you feel just needs something to click to get going. There's a clutch of players immediately after in Labanauskas, Meikle, Lennon and de Zwaan who all have something a bit special - Darius has finalled before, Ryan is seemingly always putting up big averages, Lennon always seems to run into big names although his scoring has dropped of late, while de Zwaan looks to be trending up after a horrible 2021 and we know what he can do at his peak. Continuing to scroll, Rusty isn't a bad punt I feel, he knows how to win tournaments (albeit not on the main tour next) which is a very useful talent to have, while right behind him is Martin Lukeman, who's picked up some very nice scalps and raised some eyebrows, it wouldn't be that ridiculous to suggest things could come together and he could make a tour semi final. The only other name I'll throw out here is Glen Durrant - his game is still a long way off, but he has broken that huge losing streak now, and didn't look anywhere near as bad as he has done since winning the Premier League. Sure, I'm going to wait until I've seen more than a one off, but if we can get in ahead of the curve at 400/1, then it could be juicy if everything goes right.