Wednesday, 5 October 2022

GP round 2

Unfortunate result for Heta there puts us down early in the event. Maybe I'm missing something with Cullen? There's absolutely zero in the metrics that suggests anything that he is just a top 20 level guy. I don't know, perhaps he's someone like Clayton who's performed in non-ranked events and just performs a bit better on TV than he does do on the tour. Who knows. Still, if he can get past Price in round two there's no seeds left in that half now, so it becomes wide open. Will crack through both days of round two, I don't expect too many bets, if any, but let's see:

Lewis/Dobey - Couple of players with straight sets wins, Adie in two deciding legs while Dobey was emphatic in the second set to run away with things. Bookies are struggling to separate the two putting Lewis as a small favourite, 94 average is pretty nice in double in format, but is it sustainable? Maybe. Metrics I have can barely separate the two, overall scoring has them 26th and 27th for the year with a modest minimum leg requirement split by only a tenth of a point, Lewis scoring a bit better in winning legs at the expense of consistency giving him around a 55/45 edge. As a small betting favourite, we can't look at this one.

Wright/Ratajski - Rematch from the Matchplay, if we get half as good a game as then we'll have had a treat, Wright was given a good test by Kim while Ratajski handled Rydz in straight sets. This feels like a Wright two times out of three game. Does that give any value on Ratajski? He's 5/2, so I'm thinking he's got a little bit more of a chance than the prevailing market, but it's not enough to consider a punt.

van Gerwen/Bunting - Michael wasn't great against Anderson but didn't need to be, maybe if Gary could have nicked the second set in a decider rather than losing the match it'd have become interesting but he didn't, Bunting didn't need a third set against Dolan with one of the lower winning averages of round one. This is naturally going to be a tough ask, I'm thinking MvG has a little bit of a better chance than Wright, but it's not quite up to 70%. Bunting is similarly underrated by about the same amount, being a tick higher than Ratajski at 11/4. So same scenario really - small edge but not enough to recommend a play.

Clayton/van den Bergh - Final game of Wednesday, Jonny needed to come behind against Dirk whose game fell apart somewhat after winning the first set, while Dimitri went to a deciding leg against Chisnall and just got over the line. Clayton only has a small market edge, they're thinking 55/45, this looks about right. Maybe the Welshman will perform a little bit better, I'd be setting the line a little bit shorter seeing smack in between 55% and 60% winning chances, but again, it's another one where there's not enough edge to consider a play.

Lukeman/Smith - Onto Thursday and we have a great chance for these two, Martin was the second decider winner of the first round surviving a match dart against Wade before getting home, while Ross was down 3-0 in the first set but got back to win the game, being thankful that Gilding took nine darts to get away on throw in the decider in set two. Feels a bit like the last one, with Ross closer to 55% than 60%, and maybe Ross having gone deeper in big events than Martin has will play a factor as this is a bit of uncharted territory outside of that UK Open run a while back. 13/10 Lukeman seems fair enough, no bet.

Gurney/Razma - Both players needed three sets to move on, and both won the deciding set in straight legs, Razma against Ryan Searle and Gurney against Rob Cross. Neither had great averages, I'm guessing Madars had a bit of a nightmare double leg or two, but it's the win that counts. Daryl looks to have a solid 2-1 advantage as he looks to make the quarter finals in an event he has won before, we can get 8/15 which seems fair enough.

Price/Cullen - This becomes wide open for the whole half if Joe can get this upset win, Joe as mentioned won an odd game with Heta where they both won six legs with the exact same average, Price dropped just the one leg against Schindler in a game that just looking at averages didn't seem spectacular. Seems like Price should take this about 70-75% of the time, so do we want to look at 8/15? It's probably one of the closer shots we've had, but maybe as mentioned in the prelude we are underrating Cullen for some as yet undiagnosed reason. Think we can pass this one easily enough.

Aspinall/Noppert - Final game and we have two UK Open winners clashing, Nathan took out Michael Smith with a last set sweep, while Noppie didn't need a third set to eliminate Gabriel Clemens. Think the more recent major winner has a bit of an advantage in this one, getting close to 60% but not quite all the way there. He is 4/5 which implies 55%, not really quite enough to go with a punt.

So, no bets, but there's a few there where if you're a bit more risk averse in terms of pushing small edges, you can get some action.

Monday, 3 October 2022

Grand Prix Tuesday thoughts

Caught a little bit of tonight's action after the Leicester/Forest game, obviously we had no punts to power ahead with and thankfully common sense pulled us back from punting on Anderson, not a massive deal of surprise other than Dobey just taking Humphries apart in the second set, was basically unplayable with some huge outshots but still needed to do work to get to said outshots at that stage in the leg in the first place, Dirk's capitulation against Clayton was pretty disappointing, but it is what it is. Eight games tomorrow, still round one and still a really short cut-throat format, what do we have?

Razma/Searle - Honestly don't know what we're going to get here. Searle claims to like the DIDO format, Razma's talking up his double 19 antics which is not unreasonable given his love of that area of the board, I'm favouring Searle fairly heavily in this one but he is priced at shorter than 1/2, this does seem really close to a play on the favourite but there's just enough uncertainty in my mind that I don't want to take the shot. Feels like a game where if he can get the win, we can look again in round two.

Smith/Gilding - Smith's been quiet all year but has been putting up decent enough numbers which has translated into some alright results in the last month to six weeks, which is why he is here in the first place, and that is enough to put him into contention against Gilding, who has been putting up slightly better numbers all year, and unfortunately the markets agree. 5/6 on Gilding may be giving Smith slightly too much credit in a match which will be a fair bit of a clash of styles which you feel would favour Andrew, but I can't see any sort of intangibles like this equating to anywhere near enough to recommend a play.

Noppert/Clemens - I want to say we've seen this game recently, but if we did, it must have been on the Pro Tour where I can't immediately see data without going into a deep database dive. Danny is very strongly favoured in the markets, we can't even get 4/9 which I think if he didn't bink the UK Open would be ridiculous, and as such I think Clemens is slightly undervalued here. Gabriel should probably take this around 35% of the time, we can get better than 2/1, but it is not better enough to put it down as a play to make. Definitely do not put the Freeze in any sort of acca.

Cullen/Heta - This one should be good, Cullen's been solid all year while Damon has been putting up top five numbers, he's been that good. Market can't split them, that is extremely silly as Heta is a clear three points better on scoring all year and rates to win this game more than two times out of three. 0.25u Heta evs with the title sponsors.

Cross/Gurney - Rob's been continually underrated forever, while Gurney is probably playing a touch better than his results are showing, as such this game might be a bit of a surprise hit, Rob should take this and I feel he is a bit underrated, I'm thinking around a 70% win chance, 4/7 is right on the margin of taking the shot, there is one random bookie that I've never heard of who's chucking out 8/13, if you can get someone reputable to take that price then go with it, I would probably go with 4/7 anyway but for Daryl having course and distance in this event.

Wade/Lukeman - We've got a redo from the Matchplay, where James really had no problems handling Lukeman on debut, but I'm kind of thinking things might be slightly different in this one here. That format has favoured James, but Martin seems like just as much of an opportunist as Wade is, and with the big TV major duck broken, he might be a bit more comfortable here. Lukeman's legs are right up there with Wade's, and he actually projects to win this nearly half the time, but there is an enormous consistency issue with Martin, which I think is enough to turn me off the bet, if that wasn't there I'd jump on 7/4, but I think I can talk my way out of this one.

Price/Schindler - Now this one I'm sure we've seen many times this season. Price is still clearly a top five player, while Martin has maybe cooled a little bit over the last two or three months, but in what is another Matchplay redo, he has shown the ability to hand with Gerwyn over an extended format in his 10-8 reverse at Blackpool. We won't see as many legs here naturally, and he's a live dog, but only at around the prices we're being offered. I'd say a touch over 30% for the German, he is a best price of 5/2.

Smith/Aspinall - Might be the best game saved until last. Smith's not been bad at all this year, top ten level of scoring, despite not really getting massive plaudits outside of his sick Pro Tour run in May, while Nathan's also been getting the cake at that level and has been in the ascendency compared to early year results. Year long I'm seeing Michael at a touch over 60% to take this result, 8/11 as a result is getting close to tempting, but with Aspinall maybe being a bit tighter if we were to take shorter sample sizes, I can pass on this one.

So just the one bet here, I'm sure you can understand me being cautious about punting on anything that isn't standard SIDO formats, but I've given enough for you to go off if you want to be a bit more aggressive than me.

Grand Prix Monday thoughts

Let's get into the Monday games. I can't see any doubling data which I want to be overly reliant on, so I'm just going to treat the games as roughly a best of 11 to 15 straight leg play event.

Rydz/Ratajski - Big chance for both here, but Ratajski appears to be moderately favoured with a bit above a 55% shot to take the match. He's 4/6, which isn't tempting, and even a vigless line at that point would not give enough edge to contemplate going on Callan either.

Dolan/Bunting - Another close game in the markets and an important one for both as they look to solidify their ranking positions, seems a similar game in terms of projections, Stephen coming in at around the 55% point. He is 4/5 which pretty much spot on, so we can't go with anything on this one.

Dobey/Humphries - Luke comes in as the shortest player so far, the market thinking he wins about two out of three games. That doesn't seem unfair on Chris' abilities, Luke's playing that much better that he ought to grab this around 70% of the time. As such, another spot on line.

van den Bergh/Chisnall - Key game for both, and both should be in some sort of confident form. The market can barely split them, giving Dimitri only the slightest of slight edges. I similarly can't separate them, it would take up to a world quarter final length of game before van den Bergh gets a 51% edge in my projections.

Clayton/van Duijvenbode - Highlight tie of the round for many, myself included, and maybe the one which is the closest to a bet so far. I've got Dirk as only a slight dog, 48% or so, as such 13/10 isn't too bad a punt, that equates to a 5% edge. Clayton seemingly having a slightly better doubling percentage, and seemingly always being a little bit underrated in the stats I have, is enough for me to say to not bet.

Wright/Huybrechts - Peter's the shortest price of the day, and it seems fair enough. Kim's been playing OK, but Peter's that much better - I'd say somewhere in the 75% to 80% favourite range. Most lines say 2/7 or 3/10, so yeah, we're struggling to find any value.

van Gerwen/Anderson - This would have been a tasty one on paper a few years ago, now maybe not so much, Gary needs ranking money badly and has got the worst possible draw. Anderson's stats aren't actually that far apart from MvG's, and the projections I have put them really close, normally 2/1 would be a snap call, but I can't realistically recommend a play given Anderson's enormous lack of ranking play (he only has about 40% of the legs played this season compared to van Gerwen), especially in more recent times. I can't even look at unranked play as some kind of saviour given how massively outclassed he was in the Premier League and mediocre scoring, one match vs Wright excepted, in other unranked events.

de Sousa/Lewis - We return to another tight game. Adie's improved of late and de Sousa has had a bit of a rough 2022, although more recent months appear a bit better. Lewis looks to be a live enough dog at the 45% point, but the best we can get is Ladbrokes not quite hitting 6/4, so I think we can avoid this one.

As such, no bets, will get Tuesday up as soon as I can.

Friday, 30 September 2022

A few quick thoughts

Couple of days before the Matchplay, I'll have a full list of bets/predictions for the first round on Monday, always a bit tricky to work out how much, if at all, to adjust for the double in format, I've seen some other pundits make some shifts that seem quite severe (10%+ in a first round game seems rather lol) and we certainly won't be going that far, but maybe it'll push some marginal punts one way or another. I think that's the best way to handle it, just use it as a tiebreaker when we can't decide.

Chizzy binked in Belgium over Gilding, and that gives us new FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Jonny Clayton
9 James Wade
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Nathan Aspinall
12 Dimitri van den Bergh
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ryan Searle
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode
16 Damon Heta
17 Dave Chisnall
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Gary Anderson
20 Callan Rydz

Gilding is up to #36 with his semi final, Clemens is getting fairly close to the top 20 after hitting another final session, while Schindler doesn't climb any places but continues to solidify his top 30 position.

PDC calendar has been announced for 2023, and it's really a bit lacklustre. Not that I was expecting anything revolutionary, but I was kind of hoping for a bit more diversity in terms of Euro Tour destinations. Eight events in Germany? Really? That's excessive and really limits the growth potential. One in each of the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Hungary and Czechia is good for those countries, but I would have thought they could have capped the German events at, say, six, and either hit a new country, have a second in one of the first couple I listed (particularly the Netherlands with the depth of quality of players they have there), or return to a previous location we've missed for a little bit. Oh well. Interesting that they've finally binned off Gib, I've always thought that's only ever been on the calendar to cater for gambling sponsors based on the island rather than for any sort of competitive purposes, so now that everything is sponsored by Cazoo, it's a bit of a pointless stop. Could have replaced it with an Iberian event? Oh well.

In terms of what I'm looking forward to in the Grand Prix, the top quarter isn't massively interesting - Cullen/Heta should be good and Schindler could have the game to test Price in what is an extremely short format, but the Cross side isn't that great. Remainder of the half isn't brilliant either - Smith/Aspinall might not be too bad given respective form, but the remainder look moderately predictable, at least through the first round. Third quarter has probably the hype match of the round between Clayton and van Duijvenbode, you've also got three of the four most recent Euro Tour finalists in there, Huybrechts is hitting a bit of confidence and might be able to test Wright, while Rydz/Ratajski might be under the radar in terms of a decent watch given neither appears on peak form and both could do with results to solidify decent worlds seeds. The bottom quarter is the spiciest though. MvG/Anderson is going to catch the public's attention despite the fact that it should in no way be competitive, de Sousa's in there against a resurgent Lewis, you've got two of the best young players in the game in Dobey and Humphries going at it, while Dolan against Bunting pits a former finalist against last year's semi finalist.

Some big names have missed out, and it seems to be mostly the elder statesmen - King's the highest rank player out and the only one of the current FRH top 30 not there after mincashes are applied, Suljovic isn't there, White isn't, Whitlock isn't. It's concerning times for some of these, the last two aren't even seeded for the worlds as of right now and White is in no way guaranteed to get there through the Pro Tour, sitting 23rd right now less than 4k ahead of the current last man out, and he doesn't have an appearance at Gibraltar to make possibly the easiest money on the table, draw dependent of course.

Will probably be back Sunday evening with tips for Leicester.

Sunday, 25 September 2022

Takeaways from the afternoon session

Main takeaway is that de Sousa and Clayton looked good. Really good. I don't know what sort of correlation there is between playing excellently in the Sunday afternoon and taking the whole thing to the hoop, but these look like good signs for the players in question, so I've had a bit of each way on both of them just for a bit of interest. Noppert also did well to come back, other than that there was a bit of a lack of standout performances, so it's fairly hard to see past those three for who's going to take it. The Schindler/Gilding quarter final is going to be a really interesting watch, not sure about the rest.

As we didn't see any bets in the afternoon, it's completely natural to not see anything here, if the field's such that the estimations are accurate in a field of 16, then it'll take something special to find anything when that field has been cut in half. Gilding at 10/11 on 365 is close to being worth a punt, I'm thinking he's a few percentage points ahead of Schindler up at 58% to win the match, I would probably fire at evens to be fair. Clayton is perhaps a little bit too short against Clemens, I've got Gabriel taking it 30% of the time and we can get 3/1 on 365, so it's close, but here we've got the immediate standout performance from Clayton to worry about so I can easily pass that one. de Sousa/Chisnall is priced with Dave having a small edge, that looks right as I see 55/45, so an easier pass than the first two (especially with how JdS looked against Searle). That just leaves Lewis against Noppert, here the market thinks Noppert two thirds of the time - I'm not sure how fine I am with that, Danny looked a fair bit better earlier today, but Adie looked better yesterday and should be extremely fresh having only dropped the two legs so far this weekend. A projection safely into the 40% range would be fine to look at, but there's huge vig there. If we could get the inverse of Noppie at 4/9 which I can see on Betfair, I'd go with the shot, but we can't. So I'll continue with no bets.

I've had the chance to now look at the Asian Championship - congrats to Perez for winning it, but I surely can't be the only one that's a bit disappointed with the standard. Sure, it's the first big comp there for literally years with a lot on the line, so there's nerves as well as rust, and I already made the decision to only track from the knockout stages, but the winning averages were a bit shocking. In ascending order we had 74, 78, 78, 79, 79, 82, 83, 83, 84, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96. It's a perfect 5-5-5 split between 70, 80 and 90 average, and there was only the one match at elite levels, and that was a 5-0 drubbing. Still, I think at this stage we should mostly be happy that the game is starting to get back going again in the region, and maybe we see a proper tour return there in 2023.

I'm now off to find this stream of the WDF event that supposedly exists to try to hack some data.

Belgium last 16

What an evening session. With the afternoon looking mostly chalky outside of the surprise upset of Heta, we lost both MvG and Wright to blow the tournament completely wide open. Could be any number of winners, but for now, let's see who we think will make the quarters.

Zonneveld/Gilding - Couple of deciding leg victors here, Niels got the huge scalp of Wright while Gilding outlasted Dimitri. Andrew's obviously the better player right now, but Niels is showing enough to take this around a third of the time. He is priced at 2/1, so nothing happening here.

Rodriguez/Schindler - Rusty nicked a decider against Heta to get to this stage, while Martin had few problems with Sedlacek. Got to fancy the German to progress to the quarters in a wide open section with just him as a seed remaining, he should do this a little bit less frequently than Gilding ought to, and is correctly priced ever so slightly longer than Gilding is. No bet here either.

van Duijvenbode/Clayton - Both players came through deciding legs against King and Barry respectively, Dirk scored alright while Jonny will probably need to improve a little bit to be competitive here. Clayton's a little bit of a favourite in the market, whereas I'd probably be pricing it as a straight coin flip. We can only get 6/5 on Dirk which is not long enough a price to consider punting.

Cross/Clemens - Gabriel looked great in destroying Ryan Meikle (lol at the tipper that said Clemens is out of form and just punt against him continually on general principle, seemingly not considering prices or opponents), while Rob needed ten legs in a little bit of a grind against de Decker. Rob should advance here, roughly two times out of three, Clemens is rated in the market a little bit of a longer shot, but again not enough to start thinking about a bet as there's not a solid edge to go with.

Searle/de Sousa - Ryan won through 6-1 despite not hitting a leg within fifteen darts, while Jose looked good against a Ross Smith averaging well into the 100's over all eleven legs. It feels like on current form that Jose should be favourite and he does have a small edge in the market, season long rates Searle a 55/45 favourite, which wouldn't be enough to consider at 11/10, but I think Jose's done his best work most recently and Ryan the opposite, so we won't touch this one.

Aspinall/Chisnall - The only all-English matchup, both players put up similar showings, Chizzy averaging 98 dropping two legs to Klaasen, Nathan less than a point below dropping one leg to Hughes. It's an intriguing matchup and one which I think Dave looks pretty live in, I thought Nathan might have been favoured in the market but it's a match where we can't get evens on either player. With Nathan being ascendant in recent weeks I think we can avoid this one again.

Cullen/Noppert - Joe didn't have any issues taking out Dennis Nilsson, while Danny needed all eleven legs to dispose of Madars Razma from 3-1 down with a real scrappy final leg. Seems to me as if Noppert has a similar edge as Chisnall has in the previous game, but we can only get 10/11 again, so we can't bet this one.

Huybrechts/Lewis - Kim sensationally took out MvG who missed infinity darts at double in the decisive leg to allow Huybrechts to take out 134 for the match, while Lewis looked really solid in cruising past Krcmar dropping just the one leg. Adie comes in as a moderate favourite in the 60/40 range, that looks pretty much spot on to me.

So we have no bets today. Looks like they're just starting the Asian Championship final right now between Perez and Nebrida, we've seen Christian a few times and he seems alright but basically just a guy on the top end of the game, while Paolo isn't a familiar name but someone who several pundits speak highly of, so let's see if he can lock up a Grand Slam spot to go with the worlds spot they both have already. Ilagan and Toru Suzuki will join them in returns to Ally Pally having reached the semis, got to feel for Baba who was 5-2 up for a worlds spot and then completely lost scoring power until the final leg, where he missed at least four, possibly six match darts. Oof.

Saturday, 24 September 2022

Round one mixed, round two better?

Just about managed to scrape a tiny profit after Gilding completed the day with a decider win over Whitlock. Mostly went well apart from Kevin Doets - taking nothing away from Dennis, who played better than expected, particularly in the early stages, but if Kevin wasn't scoring poorly he was missing doubles in clumps in multiple legs, a simple B-game performance would have seen him at worst 4-4, but that didn't come. So we hit the last 32, the big takeaway from day one was that Smith got the win over Beaton, which barring a miracle run from Ryan Meikle, or someone binking the whole thing from nowhere, sets the Grand Prix field. Seemed a fairly poor day in terms of quality overall, even taking into account that there were a lot of domestic qualifiers from which we weren't expecting much (if anything, they all overperformed outside of possibly Baetens), so hopefully things improve today. Another 16 games today, no oddschecker so just comparing 365, Betfair and Ladbrokes.

Heta/Rodriguez - Should be a routine win for Damon, Rusty did what he needed yesterday but didn't look great in the process and has less than a one in four chance for this one, and the lines match appropriately.

Clemens/Meikle - Ryan needs the win to keep slim Grand Prix hopes alive and this isn't a bad draw against a promoted seed. Clemens is hanging around high enough to get those promotions and should be a favourite here, but only a small one as I'm seeing roughly 55/45 in the German's favour. We can only get very slightly odds against on Meikle so the line is set correctly.

Schindler/Sedlacek - Back to back German representation, and it's another back to back seed promotion, this time in Schindler, he'll play Karel who had few problems eliminating a domestic qualifier. Appears slightly more German-favoured this one, but just barely with Karel having over a 40% shot as far as I can see, 7/4 is not quite tempting enough to pull the trigger but you're certainly not going to want to put Martin in any accumulators as that's simply a bad bet.

Searle/Brooks - Bradley got one of the shocks of the round in outlasting Dobey, and he's got a decent draw against an up and down (at least of late) Ryan Searle, but despite that Ryan ought to be a prohibitive favourite with an 85% win chance. We can get a fair bit better than that on 365, 0.25u Searle 3/10

de Sousa/Smith - Ross has done the important job and can't really get any insurance against a miracle run without getting one himself, so this is a bit of a free hit against a resurging de Sousa. Appears the tightest game so far with the Portuguese ace being slightly favoured, weirdly the books are reflecting this as well.

Chisnall/Klaasen - Dave's just been quietly doing his work this season without making any real headlines, Jelle's done a good job of rebuilding on the WDF and secondary circuits, but looks outclassed here with Dave likely to win 75% of the time. He's a little bit shorter than that everywhere I see, so nothing doing here.

van Duijvenbode/King - Dirk will have liked that Mervyn couldn't get the 6-0 job done, Mervyn won't like letting Wouter come back into it from 5-0, the difference in quality now makes this look like just a one in four game for King, the market is there or there abouts.

Aspinall/Hughes - Nathan's got a moderately tricky draw here, Jamie was a bit up and down early but pulled away from VVDV to claim the 6-3 win despite the lower average. The model actually says a coinflip. We can get 6/4 across the board, which would normally be a play, but there is a fair bit of inconsistency in Jamie's stats, which is enough to pull me away from taking the shot. I'm looking full year here, if I narrowed it down to a bit more recently, Nathan's improving form over the last few months probably turn the projection more into his favour.

Cross/de Decker - Rob can't mind this draw against one of the local contingent, Mike struggling a bit against one of the local qualifiers, and Rob is at around 80% in the market. I'm seeing it a bit closer than that - Mike has a bit of a consistency issue, but if we ignore that then I'm seeing a bit more than a one in three shot. Pull that back to 30% from the 37% that the projection gives, and pop in a bit of home crowd support, and it's nearly worth a play at 3/1. Mediocre play yesterday is probably the deciding factor in not betting.

Clayton/Barry - Keane was one of the better players yesterday, cruising to an easy win over Baggish, and this isn't the worst draw against Clayton, Jonny being a little bit up and down of late, at least in ranked events. That said, I'm only seeing a one in four chance for Keane, and we can't even get 5/2 in this one. Sigh. Another correct line.

van den Bergh/Gilding - Andrew had the second highest average yesterday at just a fraction under a ton, and he's going to need all of that against the home town favourite. Such is the respect for Gilding in the market, we can't even get 6/4, which is what I'd need in a game which I'm calling as a pure flip. Would think about 11/8 but the crowd should be nicely warmed up at this stage, although Andrew doesn't seem the type to be affected by a partizan atmosphere.

Wright/Zonneveld - Peter is priced as a very comfortable winner against Niels, who got the win we thought he would against Soutar but never really got into top gear. Think he's got about a one in four shot, we can get 4/1 basically everywhere, that's not quite enough given a plodding performance yesterday, but Wright is certainly not safe to put into an accumulator.

Cullen/Nilsson - Another big favourite game here, Dennis pulling off the shock of the round but will be an even bigger dog here against Cullen, a winner at this level earlier this month. I'm seeing anywhere between 1/8 and 1/11 for Joe here, if anything it could be even shorter, I only see 5% chances for Dennis. I doubt he can play as well as he did in the first 4-5 legs yesterday for long enough to threaten Cullen in this one.

van Gerwen/Huybrechts - Number one seed against the number two Belgian in Belgium, this ought to be spicy, Kim was not great against West in another game that underwhelmed and will need a much improved effort to threaten MvG here. Chances look right in between 20% and 25%, so only being offered 3/1 I can't recommend any play here.

Lewis/Krcmar - Late game for Boris here after a very early one yesterday where he dropped just the one leg to Menzies despite only averaging in the mid 80's. Adie's been promoted to the 16 seed for this one, just sneaking in following a Pro Tour win a couple of months back, but should not be a big favourite, this feels 55/45 to me, sadly the best we can get is 11/8.

Noppert/Razma - Last game sees the newest new major champion against Razma, who was given a decent test by Andy Baetens but did just enough to get over the line. This is a big step up in quality and Madars only rates to win one out of four games here, lines look very good again.

So not a lot doing here, just the relatively small play (given the line, we normally think about half a unit that short) on Searle. Will report back later, on this as well as the Asian Championship which looks like it's getting to the business end right now. Would say some stuff about the England Classic, but data looks to be non-existent from what I can see.

Friday, 23 September 2022

ET12 round one tips

Oddschecker's working (at least for the games not featuring qualifiers), and there's a good selection of lines on it, so I'll list the picks here, all the analysis is in the previous post so I won't repeat myself here:

0.5u Doets 4/11, really should be shorter
0.25u van Veen 7/4, seems underrated and there's enough edge here to go with a quarter unit play
0.25u Zonneveld 11/10, as mentioned in the analysis he's playing the better darts and appears better than 60%, so to get odds against is quite the coup
0.25u Hughes 10/11, I can see why they have priced this as evens given the relative OOM rankings, but we know better than to look at those
1u King 1/9, this seems like free money
0.25u Gilding 10/11, this seems like the exact same situation as the Hughes game, except with a little bit less edge.

Thursday, 22 September 2022

ET12 round one thoughts

Another three withdrawals, sigh, seems a little bit silly that Lewis is now into the seeds until you recall that he did win a Pro Tour out of nowhere a couple of months back. Still, that's opened up five (5!) home nation qualifier spots, looking at the last ten that's going on right now I only recognise the names of Andy Baetens and Kevin Blomme so this could be a case of using FDI and common sense for a lot of spots, let's go through the schedule:

Nilsson/Doets - Fair bit of data on Dennis from the SDC, we know what we're going to get with him, occasional bit of quality but far below the level of Kevin, who's maybe not quite at the level he was in 2021 but still a very competent Pro Tour level player. Doets should be a prohibitive favourite and anything up to around 1/4 seems like it should be value.

van Veen/Meikle - Will be interesting to see how Gian, a Challenge Tour player this year, adapts to the stage against Ryan, who still has a very good chance of making the European Championship and a win here would help. We've actually got nearing 150 legs of data on Gian and he scores around the same as Ryan this season, and the projections actually put him ahead, albeit there's a bit of a consistency issue. If we see better than 6/4 on Gian, very possible just based on "not tour card holder", then I think we play.

Sedlacek/HNQ3 - This is Vandaele or Callaert, neither of whom rate highly although Callaert did get a 90 average in quals. Can't see either really threatening anyone of Sedlacek's quality, at least in this season. Update - it is Vandaele, who's got a pretty mediocre FDI rating and didn't crack 85 in the quals.

Krcmar/Menzies - Oof, a couple of players where you really don't know what you're going to get, both can be amazing, both can be ordinary. Appears fairly close in the projections and will be tough to find a winner, Boris looks to have a tiny edge but the market would need to be saying it's at least 60/40 one way or another before we consider a play.

Barry/Baggish - Danny's secured a worlds spot through the CDC but is going to need a couple of wins there minimum to stand any chance of retaining a card, so every little will help. It's a tough draw in Keane who's pushing up towards the top 32, but Baggish has chances against the young Irish sensation - it's not quite 40%, but may be a touch better than what the market thinks.

HNQ1/Razma - Madars is going to get Baetens or Blomme, who look to be the two picks of players that have got to the last round, Andy in particular looking dangerous based on previous WDF form and a ton plus average in early rounds of the qual. Razma should have just enough but if he's having a bit of an off day, as can happen with him, either qualifier could take advantage. Update - as it is Baetens, that danger is very real.

Zonneveld/Soutar - Niels has appeared quiet on the tour this year, despite being in a provisional WC spot right now, 1500 quid ahead of Soutar who's notably regressed this season compared to last, so it's an important game for both as they look to solidify their Ally Pally chances, an extra grand could well make the difference come the end of the Pro Tour. Niels looks to be playing the slightly better darts and should be priced up at around the 8/13 range here.

Klaasen/HNQ5 - Jelle's had a competent enough season that he ought to easily handle Francois Schweyen, who's just won, an 88 scoring clip is solid enough against someone who the only data I have is a 5-0 drubbing on one of the secondary tours where the average was in the 70's - similar to what was seen in the qualifier, although he did creep up to 83 in the last round. Should be a safe win for the Dutchman in this lowlands derby.

Rodriguez/Smith - Jeff's in some real danger of losing his tour card, currently outside the worlds looking in, not in the Pro Tour spots right now and didn't get enough done in the NA qualifiers, so this is a huge game against Rusty, who's also had a bit of a disappointing season, but only in the sense he didn't replicate what was a huge 2021. This is actually a rematch from Hungary, where Rusty won, and whether Jeff will be the favourite again (we did bet Rusty that time at odds against) is a big question. He shouldn't be as Rusty is right between 55% and 60% to claim the victory and I doubt they make the same mistake twice.

Brooks/Dobey - Bradley's another youngster who's had a quiet year, not picking up a huge deal of prize money so making the most of these chances is key, but he's got a tough draw in Chris, who's also not had an amazing year but is still in the top 20 of the Pro Tour rankings. Dobey should be far too strong here and 1/3 looks to be the fair line.

Beaton/Smith - This is by far the most important game of the day. Ross needs this for the Grand Prix spot, while Beaton is looking marginal for the Pro Tour worlds qualification rankings, only just about holding on to one of the last spots as of right now. If he were to lose his spot then retaining a tour card becomes a serious question. Ross ought to claim this a touch over 60% of the time, he had a bit of a bad start to 2022 but is turning things around and did have a nice Euro Tour run recently to draw confidence from.

Hughes/van der Voort - Couple of players here which we've not mentioned a great deal, we've barely talked about Hughes at all after his Euro Tour win which is several years ago now, but he's still holding on in the mid-50's of the rankings and should make the worlds comfortably enough, while van der Voort is retaining a top 30 FRH ranking and a worlds seeding despite rarely being talked about. Jamie is outscoring VVDV by a fair amount, enough to translate to a two in three win chance, which might not be recognised in the market.

King/HNQ2 - Mervyn seems to be regressing a bit, no longer scoring over 90 and not particularly close to the top 32 on the Pro Tour, and is starting to miss majors, but this should still easily be enough to despatch whatever a Wouter Vanrolleghem is, a player who isn't even on the FDI top 32 for Belgium and couldn't break 80 in any one of four qualification matches. King will be loving this draw and ought to be the shortest player on the coupon tomorrow morning.

de Decker/HNQ4 - Mike's got a compatriot in the first round after being one of the top ranked Belgians to get the auto spot (with Huybrechts), he's been thrown up against Remo Mandiau, who is at least on the FDI ranking table mentioned above, but down at a 1400-something rating, which isn't great, and similarly he didn't break 80 once in the qual and was down in the 60's in one match, albeit there looked to be a lot of mutual missed doubles dragging this down. de Decker is scoring just above 90 this season which is extremely respectable and should have too much.

West/Huybrechts - Ronny couldn't come through but Kim could, and he's looking for a big run to try to force his way into the European Championship. His scoring has dropped of from twelve months ago, he was looking like he might get his way back into the top 32 but isn't quite at that level now, although he is holding a provisional worlds seed for the time being, but West's regression is worse and is almost certain to lose his card after a horrific two year spell. Steve is still doing enough to maybe nick this 40% of the time, so if he can show up, maybe there is some value here.

Gilding/Whitlock - Final game's going to be a belter, with Andrew maybe the most improved player in 2022 (although it certainly isn't to new heights, just compared to 2021), while Whitlock still keeps hanging around, mainly just to beat van Gerwen repeatedly. Goldfinger's playing that much better that he should be 60-65% favoured to claim a second round match against the home nation favourite in DvdB.

Check for tips once the matches have been priced up in the morning.

Monday, 19 September 2022

Bit of a catch up

Been a mental week or so down here, so not caught up after the Euro Tour the other week which Wright was able to win, breaking a surprising drought at that level considering the number he plays (or at least used to play, certainly murmurings that he will limit his schedule going forward). Good run for Dimi, Ratajski did enough with a quarter to keep himself the right side of the European cutoff for now, the disappointing one is that Rock couldn't do enough to get himself into Grand Prix contention - would have been a tough ask regardless, but would have been great to see. Ross Smith helped himself hugely - he is in the Belgium field, less than a grand behind Rowby, who isn't, and that's the last event before the cutoff as far as I can see. One win should do it - there's a jump ahead of Rowby of about four grand to Dolan, then below Smith there's more than four grand to the next player who is in the field (van der Voort) who could go on a run. As such, for all intents and purposes it looks like Smith just needs to win his opening game. I'm working off dartsrankings.com counting future mincashes which they usually do, if not Smudger would need to beat their seed as well, which is another question entirely.

FRH rankings as of right now (so will have had a week of degrading after Jena):

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Luke Humphries (UP 1)
7 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)
8 James Wade
9 Jonny Clayton
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Nathan Aspinall
12 Dimitri van den Bergh
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ryan Searle
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode
16 Damon Heta (UP 1)
17 Krzysztof Ratajski (UP 1)
18 Gary Anderson (DOWN 2)
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Humphries got a round further than Cross and that's enough to bump him up a spot, Heta and Ratajski just showing up was enough to shove them past Ando. One thing to watch for is that van Gerwen is now less than 30k behind Price - a good run at the Grand Prix, or even a moderate run if he binks in Belgium this weekend and Price has an early exit, could easily see him grab the #2 spot back, which is pretty rare to hold without having either of the previous two world titles.

Tournament was moderately chalky with only Smith (now 31st) reaching the quarters from outside the top 20, so no big jumps. Players sliding include Whitlock who's now outside the top 35, Petersen could easily be out of the top 50 very soon, while Durrant is now 70th.

We've had a whole weekend since then, and it's a bit of a mad combination of a weekend with both five Challenge Tours and a gold-rated WDF event clashing. Taking the latter first, Reece Colley, a name we've seen for a while on the secondary tours, managed to bink the bigger of the two events which will give him a Lakeside (?) spot, if and when that's ever scheduled, that it hasn't been yet is a touch concerning. Then again, a major train company here can't schedule trains for this weekend and they think that's fine, so meh. James Richardson got the other one, good for form and someone that we should really be seeing on the PDC tour.

Challenge Tour then - main thing is that Scott Williams binked another one, which is giving him a near four grand lead at the top of the table, so it's going to take a lot to deny him a tour card, a worlds spot (both of which he's looking pretty good to get through other means anyway), and a Grand Slam spot. On the Slam, will quickly mention that van Duijvenbode's improved his chances by finalling that exbo in the Netherlands at the weekend. Other winners were Robert Owen (now second in the rankings), Wesley Plaisier (not had a great season outside of that, but we've seen on the European Tour he's a very good player and will surely be one who'd be a favourite to claim a card at Q-School), Jurjen van der Velde (now fifth, one of six players in a tight race for the second card, or possibly both cards) and Christian Kist, who's a bit further back in eighth. Kist also made the final of the first event so has kind of come a bit from nowhere to contend for a card, also good to see some familiar names in Thornton, Tricole and Lauby getting all the way to the final. I don't know anything about Patrick Peters, but he's the last of your finalists.

The big interesting thing this weekend on top of the Euro Tour is going to be the Asian Championship. There's so many names that we've not seen outside of very limited opportunities for quite some time, as well as plenty of fairly new names, so we should get a fair bit of good data here given that the tournament looks like it will be on Dart Connect. Will be fun to observe for sure.

Saturday, 10 September 2022

ET11 round 3

Well, Beaton worked. Can't complain. Other than that, the tournament has been completely chalky, with just DvD, Noppert (in a decider) and Searle dropping out, the key upshot is that Ratajski is keeping his Euros hopes alive. With a lot of seeds going through, I'm not expecting a great deal of value given latest trends indicating that the bookies are tightening up to my opinions a fair bit, and they've not been too far off on known players in the first place. But I can find a couple of plays:

0.1u Gurney 2/1 vs Cullen, you pretty much need the 365 line for it to be a play. I've been laying Cullen a lot of late, so maybe there's something in his underlying stats I've missed, but he needed a 12 in a decider to beat someone clearly worse than Daryl, who's just beaten someone in my opinion better than Cullen. That's worth a small play at 2/1.

0.1u Woodhouse 4/1 vs van den Bergh, he's just come off a solid couple of wins, Dimitri I feel is solid but not unbeatably solid, so with me seeing Luke at 30%, I'll take a line that indicates he should be 20% for a small play.

That's the lot, everything else seems in line. I will almost certainly not be able to make any sort of quarter final analysis.

ET11 round 2

Quick one here, little disappointing I didn't go to the expanded plays I was looking at, taking Evans and Sedlacek would have turned a small loss on Scutt into an even smaller gain overall, but no big deal, sixteen games today (wow!), will just mention the lines I'm liking for plays as I'm short of time:

0.1u Beaton 7/2 vs Aspinall, Steve's still got just about enough class and quality to take this one out of three, so an implied chance of down at 22% in the market gives us enough edge. Will preface this with saying that Aspinall's form is a natural concern, but we'll still take the shot.

And, oddly, that's it. There were one or two where we had a small edge, and I was tempted to take de Sousa at heavily odds on just because I can't believe Horvat's level of play will get him anywhere close, but nothing that is notable as even a maybe. Oh well.

Friday, 9 September 2022

ET11 round one

Absurd amount of withdrawals again. The PDC must rectify this next season - either by moving the home nation qualifier back to the day before the event, by increasing the power of the DRA to enforce penalties, both, or something else entirely. Ideas? Anyway, there are twelve games today, oddschecker hasn't got its arse in gear, so let's do this.

Kleermaker/Evans - Seems disturbingly close on the projections, Evans has really disappointed with a card, while Martijn has got more results than his stats suggest, but it's been a quieter 2022 regardless. 5/2 on Evans would be the play to take, I should take it, but it just doesn't feel right.

Brooks/Williams - Ought to be easy enough for Scott, Bradley's not really pushed on this year, 70/30 looks right and the market is in that ballpark.

Barry/Woodhouse - Should be a good one, appears very evenly matched, as such the side to take is Woodhouse who is naturally priced as the dog, but too small a dog to fire a bet.

Hughes/Larsson - Can't really see Daniel troubling Jamie, but Hughes is priced too short to consider.

Sedlacek/Williams - This ought to be fun as well, this feels very much like the Barry game where they're too close to call, but there's not quite enough value on the underdog (Karel here) to actually recommend a bet. It's very, very close though, if you can get north of 6/4 take it.

Horvat/Smith - Lacking data on Dragutin, Jeff at shorter than 1/2 isn't exuding value, think he should have more than enough but I have to pass at that price.

van Trijp/Henderson - Actually got more data on Danny than I thought, as such I think that the 60/40 in favour of Hendo that I've got in projections seems to have enough sample size to be somewhat accurate, the market thinks John's a little better than that, but not enough to warrant a bet.

Rock/Nentjes - We could see this one in majors for years to come, will look to watch this one for sure. Geert is talented, but not at Josh's level right now, Rock at 2/7 best price is a bit of an overreaction (I'd have said 4/11) but not too much.

Gurney/Scott - Daryl was up and down last weekend while Connor's been quiet this year after an OK start. Gurney is priced too short here, 0.1u Scutt 5/2, projections I have give him just over 40% so I'll take this small stab.

Soutar/Wenig - Lukas has got a fair bit of experience this year while Alan's regressed in 2022 quite a bit, so much the market has it surprisingly close, I'd have thought a Wenig value bet would be on with a projection of 48%, but we can barely get odds against.

White/van Barneveld - Great first round tie here, Ian really needs a win, this is another that seems too close to call, market has them 10/11 the pair, no interest at that price.

Clemens/Lukeman - Another which the market has very close. Lukeman correctly is given the tiny edge.

So not much here. Scutt is the play, Evans and Sedlacek very close.

Tuesday, 6 September 2022

Hungary aftermath

Congrats to Joe, becoming only the tenth player to have won three Euro Tour titles. Real strange event with Willie O'Connor coming from nowhere to get the runners' up spot and bump him from well outside the world qualification spots to into it. Rock having a good run means that with a deep run next weekend, he's still got an outside chance of the Grand Prix. But for now, new FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 James Wade
9 Jonny Clayton
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Nathan Aspinall
12 Dimitri van den Bergh
13 Joe Cullen (UP 3)
14 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
16 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
17 Damon Heta
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Not a huge deal of movement. Cullen's win is the main thing and he nips ahead of Searle by just 4 points. Mainly it's the players with deeper runs not being in the top 20 hunt - Willie jumps a couple of spots to 34, Aspinall's semi is offset by de Sousa's quarter, Chisnall was in a bit of an island anyway, Meikle solidifies a top 50 spot which might have been lost with Jim Williams and Boris Krcmar getting paid, Rusty dumps Glen Durrant out of the top 64, while Josh Rock is up to the top 70.

Will likely be back on Thursday with thoughts about ET11.

Sunday, 4 September 2022

Hungary round three pick

Yikes, that was one heck of a day, MvG, Wright and Humphries (amongst other seeds) going out, so coupled with Price already having withdrawn, it's completely wide open and a great chance for someone to potentially pick up a first title, and a potential Grand Slam spot as well.

Betting was alright, 2/4 which when going all underdogs is decent enough, and we add one play today with a tenth of a unit on Jim Williams at 12/5 on 365 against Cullen. That seems long when he's already beaten a better player than Joe, I'd have thought maybe 6/4, 13/8 would be appropriate.

Back Tuesday I think.

Saturday, 3 September 2022

Round one good, round two change of strategy

Not a bad opening day going 4/4, tournament seems quite chalky so far but we did have some moderately weak domestic qualifiers which created some betting mismatches, they didn't play badly but aren't at the required levels yet. Williams dodged a bullet, but we take those.

Tournament also marred with withdrawals, Rowby you can understand given the circumstances, but who knows why Price dropped. Shame really.

We've got a bit of a change of plan here in round two in that the only real value appears to be in taking what are fairly significant underdogs in two horse races, so we go a tenth of a unit on each of the following:

Rusty 7/2
Sedlacek 13/5
Lukeman 12/5
Bunting 6/4

RJR didn't look brilliant, but this line seems like a huge Noppert overadjustment to his actual level of play. Sedlacek we identified in advance. Lukeman is probably mostly just not believing Cullen's level of play. Bunting I think we should really be going a quarter of a unit given the perceived year long edge, but with Nathan being better of late and not having access to the master computer to query a smaller sample size, I'll play it cautiously despite Stephen getting the whitewash yesterday.

A few others were considered - Krcmar is very close but I'm always cautious when someone has an effective free win then gets thrown at an elite player like Humphries is. Similar with Barney, 2/1 isn't quite enough, but if we had a couple of extra ticks I'd probably play if he looked good in round one (and we have no data) and if I could see more recent data on de Sousa. Meikle is also fairly close, but this seems like the sort of game where he has a reasonable chance to convert statistics into results and doesn't do it. 5/2 instead of 2/1 and I probably say fuck it and bet.

Should be able to get last sixteen thoughts, but as I've not modelled that far in advance don't expect tips unless something seems obviously (but not a palp) out of line.

Thursday, 1 September 2022

Round one bets

No formatting because phone, but a quarter of a unit on each of:

Jim Williams 2/5

Rusty Jake Rodriguez 13/10

Josh Rock 2/5

Martin Lukeman 21/20

First two on 365, last two on Ladbrokes

Wednesday, 31 August 2022

Surprise early draw! Result!

Not a whole deal happening since the last post other than Rock crushing almost everyone on the Dev Tour and Beau crushing everyone in the Women's Series, with some minor WDF stuff with disappointingly patchy DartConnect coverage given it was actually there, but hey! The Euro Tour is back, and the draw is actually out already, which is a huge bonus, as I'm on holiday this weekend so I was expecting coverage to be real patchy. Oddschecker is not running yet (it often isn't when they're expecting fixtures, so right now I'm not expecting miracles), so I'll do a quick first round punts post from my phone tomorrow evening, but for now we can at least give some commentary and reads.

Roetzsch/Razma (Price) - Not seen a great deal of Franz since that one breakthrough season where he nearly made the European Championship from nowhere. Madars should be solid enough, no real data to use but this feels about 75% for Razma, then Price an overwhelming 80%+ favourite.

Claydon/Williams (Wright) - Brett's done his thing, which is playing alright but really just making up the numbers at the Pro Tour level, which isn't going to cut it against someone with Williams' talent, Jim ought to take this one really comfortably, 80% doesn't seem unreasonable, and he seems moderately live against Peter assuming he wins, maybe 30%?

Krcmar/Sarai (Humphries) - I know zero about this qualifier, and if anyone else claims they do, they're probably lying, so Boris at anything that isn't stupid odds on looks decent. Humphries is a different level again, but Krcmar plays well enough that he ought to take a second round match one time out of three - if he ever stops playing badly on stage.

Smith/Rodriguez (Noppert) - Jeff's been a bit of a forgotten name in 2022 I feel, after some decent runs last year, while Rusty hasn't really done as much as I thought he would have done after getting his card. Feels like Rusty a touch over 60%, but Danny should be solidly in control, although the projections would only give him just shy of two in three against Rodriguez.

Labanauskas/Rock (Heta) - Darius' data doesn't look brilliant in 2022, which is kind of unfortunate as he's running into someone whose data looks fucking incredible in Rock, who rates to claim this around 80-85% of the time. Jesus. Heta's better again, but only by a fairly small margin, I'd pay really good money to watch those two play all day against each other. And that'd be first on in the afternoon on Saturday. Idiots.

Tricole/Sedlacek (Searle) - This ought to be fun, two of the more notable non-card holder names in what looks like it should be a decent edge for Karel, projecting over 70% which did surprise me a touch. Searle's form has been a bit spotty, he would still be a favourite against the Czech but I'm only seeing just over 60/40 so could be underdog value in this one.

Borbely/de Zwaan (Cross) - Again, another player I know nothing about. de Zwaan needs to something here to push into the worlds spots and then pray if he's got any chance of saving his card, this is a great chance for him. Scoring's been fine but it's still some way off his peak and he's barely got more than a one in four chance against Rob, assuming the unthinkable doesn't happen and he shits the bed against the qualifier.

Gurney/Rafferty (Smith) - Spicy tie here, Daryl is doing fine this year while Nathan's much the same, fairly hard to pick a winner, I would still give Gurney the edge but only just over 55/45, there's not that much in it. Smith's about 70% against Gurney though.

White/Lukeman (Cullen) - These two seem fairly similar, I'm not quite sure why. Martin's getting the results but White's probably playing a bit better and not getting them, I say that but then shove it into the master computer and it says Lukeman 55/45. Go figure. Cullen's only about the same against Lukeman. Real tough segment to call.

Chisnall/Larsson (Clayton) - Daniel's shown some signs in spots that he's got a decent A-game, and his overall floor level game has improved, but Chizzy's a bastard draw and I'm only seeing 15%. Clayton's not actually performing that much better than Dave, see it as closer to 55% than 60%. Doubt the bookies have it that close if that happens.

Szekely/O'Connor (van den Bergh) - I've actually heard of Pal, which makes a change, although I have no data. Probably wouldn't go quite as mad on Willie dependent on the odds, but should still be comfortable. Dimitri seems bang on 70%, he's just solid enough that Willie's going to have to bring his best and even then it might not be enough.

Evetts/Dobey (van Duijvenbode) - Fun section, three players all on the right side of their careers and three who've probably not peaked yet, odd to say with a world youth champion, multiple Pro Tour winner and major finalist here. Ted's not really kicked on from that world youth and I think is closer to one in four than one in three, while Dobey's not really brought his best this season and Dirk should progress in that potential game two thirds of the time.

Whitlock/Vesgo (van Gerwen) - Janos is probably the most well known local player, I do have some limited data which I think is from a previous Euro Tour and it's not inspiring, Simon should be fine and will come up against MvG, who he's handled on TV a disproportionate amount of times given that my projections for that second round match come in at better than 70/30 for Michael.

van Barneveld/Rodriguez (de Sousa) - I keep forgetting Barney's still back on tour until he occasionally pops up in dispatches, kind of sad really. This ought to be a decent one though, looks like the tightest first rounder with Barney only having the slightest edge over the Austrian who's got a final at this level already this season, and while I think both will fancy the draw they've got against de Sousa, he seems to have recovered enough in the Matchplay that he's in the low 60% range against either potential opponent.

Bunting/Rydz (Aspinall) - This is a real interesting section between three players who were ranking fairly close until Nathan's hit a few results and pulled away a bit. Stephen's probably playing slightly better than Callan this season, call it 55/45, and chuck him into a game against Aspinall and it's a pure flip. Good luck calling a winner here.

Clemens/Meikle (Ratajski) - Gabriel's doing enough to get into majors still, but he's arguably not at his best and may well not be the best German right now. Meikle's shown he's got all the quality, he just needs to put it together for a big tourney run. Seems close in the projections, Gabriel has the edge but not even 55/45, while Ratajski could do with a good result and is a bit over 60% against Clemens.

Check in tomorrow evening for tips.

Wednesday, 10 August 2022

Into the summer break

We're well into a near month long gap without any relevant PDC darts, there's the Development Tour in a couple of weeks, but it's just exbos outside of that, so let's look at the FRH rankings after a triple header from Barnsley where Cross, Aspinall and, from where I don't know, Keegan Brown got the cake:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross (UP 1)
7 Luke Humphries (UP 1)
8 James Wade (DOWN 2)
9 Jonny Clayton
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Nathan Aspinall (UP 3)
12 Dimitri van den Bergh
13 Ryan Searle (DOWN 2)
14 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
15 Gary Anderson
16 Joe Cullen
17 Damon Heta
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Not a huge amount of changing - Nathan winning one and finalling another gives him a huge jump getting close to the top 10, while Wade either missing the events or doing nothing in them (I forget which) and Cross winning one with Humphries finalling one sees him drop down to eighth.

Lower down, Keegan's win sees him go up to 61st, it's been a fairly solid weekend for most of those outside the top 20 so not a whole lot of shifting there, Ted Evetts making a semi sees him back into the top 80, and that's pretty much it.

So what of the WDF? The big Aussie event was fairly disappointing in terms of quality - we at least got stats to work this out, which is better than what they could do in Antwerp, where Jamie Lewis and Wesley Plaisier got the cake. How they did it, who knows. No stream either for the Australian event, at least outside of domestic which was paywalled anyway. Later on, there's some small antipodean events for which is usually pretty terrible in terms of getting any sort of reliable data, one in Sweden I don't know, then we get to the British Open which I think ought to be covered on Dart Connect. We'll see.

Saturday, 30 July 2022

Post-Matchplay FRH rankings

Apologies, super busy week, needless to say that I didn't see any decent bets in the latter stages, maybe van Gerwen was marginal value in the final, which would have paid off, but can't take credit for that. Overall a disappointing tournament from a betting standpoint, but we can't complain about the number of good close games that we got, and it's good to see that the best player in the world got his hands back onto a major trophy.

New FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael van Gerwen (UP 1)
4 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
5 Danny Noppert (UP 4)
6 James Wade (DOWN 1)
7 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)
8 Luke Humphries (DOWN 1)
9 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Ryan Searle
12 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 5)
13 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 1)
14 Nathan Aspinall (UP 2)
15 Gary Anderson (DOWN 3)
16 Joe Cullen (DOWN 3)
17 Damon Heta (DOWN 2)
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

There's no real major moves outside of the top 20 - only Rowby made big inroads with his first round win, but Gilding and Lukeman are both into the top 50, Razma is into the top 40, and Lewis is pretty close to the top 32 again.

We're now into a little bit of a dead spell - there's some Players Championship events later this week but they look to have had a fair few players opt out already, then they go off down under for World Series events. There's a couple of Nordic events this weekend, then some Development Tour later in the month, but definitely a quiet spell. There's a big WDF event in Australia, but has already been marred with Littler and Hurrell not playing it, so who knows what the standard will be. Seems to be quite a few silver-level events which will add useful data - if we can get it. I guess I'll give a rankings update after PC 22-24, but other than that, expect a quiet August.

Thursday, 21 July 2022

Matchplay quarters

Not a great couple of bets. van Gerwen won comfortably enough, but de Sousa continuing a return to form out of nowhere gave us a bit more of a set back. Smith falling might be a surprise to the casuals but not to us (or the market), and it gives us a fairly interesting quarter final lineup, let's take a peek:

Wright/van den Bergh - Peter needed overtime against Ratajski, Krzysztof performing better than expected as we thought he might but just missed a couple of key doubles at the death. Dimitri didn't have too much of a problem with Rowby, who I think can be fairly happy with his performance this week. Market has this, to me, surprisingly close with Wright only at 4/5, I'm seeing it a bit further apart, close to 60/40. Maybe ever so slightly better as Wright has a tiny bit more consistency, but nothing to generate a bet.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Michael shrugged aside Joe Cullen as we thought he might do, while Aspinall was pushed by Wade and won by the odd break. This ought to be fairly comfortable for Michael, Nathan's done alright this week but this feels like a step too far and I'm projecting MvG to win 75% of the time. That's enough for an easy play at 365 as well as a couple of others, 0.25u van Gerwen 4/7

Price/de Sousa - Jose must be liking the warm conditions, getting a big lead against Cross but this time the comeback was prevented, Price was in a little bit of bother against Chisnall yesterday but a good second half showing was enough to move the number 2 seed into the only chalk v chalk matchup we've got. This looks like a 75/25 play again in favour of the Welshman, actually slightly better. Odds are slightly shorter again, but this is worth the shot, 0.25u Price 1/2

van Duijvenbode/Noppert - Dirk got ahead early, then when Smith threatened a comeback after a decent second session, he kept Michael at arms length for long enough to get over the line. Danny had little trouble with Daryl Gurney, and is the only player in the field with back to back ton plus averages for those who like their meaningless statistics. Market has it at evens take your pick, the length of game makes this a pretty trivial play on Hills, 0.25u van Duijvenbode evs, he projects at near 65% which is the best play of the round by far.

Tuesday, 19 July 2022

Matchplay round 2

To say that was a disappointing first round was an understatement. Some players (Heta, Anderson) just didn't turn up, while others (Dolan, Gilding) blew leads of various sizes, only the automatic play of Wright got home. Just the two seeds out other than Ando, we thought Aspinall over Humphries had a chance, but Rowby over Clayton isn't one many of us thought was on the cards. So we've got a lot of seed on seed action now, let's go through round 2:

Rodriguez/van den Bergh - Rowby got the big shock as mentioned above, Dimitri easily dispatched a sub-par Callan Rydz. Can't see the conditions (I am guessing it is going to be fucking boiling, IIRC the Winter Gardens isn't the coolest place at the best of times, and it's slightly warm at the moment) affecting either, so a projection of 75/25 Dimitri doesn't seem to need altering. The market's giving Rowby a fraction more chance than that, no bet.

Wade/Aspinall - James overcame Martin Lukeman comfortably enough, not the greatest game and first TV game nerves seemed to play a factor. Nathan took out Humphries, many people's tip to go all the way, but it won't be this year, and I think he'll take out Wade as well, I'm seeing a touch better than 60% chances, sadly he seems 8/13 across the board as Wade's #5 seeding is correctly not being taken seriously.

Wright/Ratajski - Peter mauled Razma losing just four legs, Ratajski was pushed a bit harder by Bunting but looked pretty good. Ratajski has chances, nearer to 40% than one in three, but it's not that much nearer that we can start to look at 2/1 as any sort of value bet. After being all over Wright in round one, it's definitely not one I'd put in any sort of accumulator.

van Gerwen/Cullen - This one's been spicy a few times on TV and after van Gerwen didn't look the greatest against Lewis, there's the chance this might be again. This looks to me to be another case of lay Cullen, he won heavily in round one but that to me looks more like Damon playing badly rather than Joe playing fantastically, I see MvG at over 75% to claim the quarter final spot, so 0.25u van Gerwen 4/7

Gurney/Noppert - Daryl didn't need to play great to eliminate Anderson but did enough, Noppert was pressured by Dolan but pulled away after the second break and somehow ended up with a 100 average. Seems a straight 2-1 in favour of the Freeze, that's roughly the line, so no bet.

de Sousa/Cross - Jose came through last night when many thought he was a seed in danger - maybe the warm conditions suit him? Cross also came from a big hole against Dobey, so maybe a bit of a name on the trophy moment? Looks about the same sort of value as the previous game, Cross a little bit better than 2-1 favourite, not quite 70%, I think 0.25u Cross 8/13 is worth the stab.

Price/Chisnall - Schindler gave a great account yesterday, but Price had just enough quality at the death to get over the line, looking like one or two stray darts shy of a ton average. Chizzy was in a bit of a back and forth game with Huybrechts but Kim continued his poor Blackpool run in the end. Chizzy's live here, I'd say 35% chances, I'm surprised we can only get slightly better than 6/4.

Smith/van Duijvenbode - Michael was one of only two players to need overtime in round one, Dirk meanwhile came out the winner by the odd break in a real high quality tussle with Ryan Searle. Bookies can barely separate them, only giving Smith a tiny edge of less than 55/45, maybe it should be Smith at 11/10 rather than Dirk from where I'm standing. Should be real tight.

Wednesday, 13 July 2022

Here comes the Matchplay

Great few days of Pro Tours just now and the Matchplay lineup is confirmed. Got to say that I do like the changes from last year, seems like a lot of the dead wood on their way out have been replaced by newer, up and coming players, and the draw looks pretty exciting too. Will go through the games in a bit, but first, the new FRH rankings (incorporates mincashing the Matchplay but all the top 20's in so it doesn't change anything):

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Jonny Clayton
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Ryan Searle
12 Gary Anderson
13 Joe Cullen
14 Dirk van Duijvenbode (UP 2)
15 Damon Heta (DOWN 1)
16 Nathan Aspinall (UP 1)
17 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 2)
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Dirk winning the opener, even with nothing else beyond that, was enough to get him just ahead of Heta and Aspinall, but less than 2,000 points separate those three. Dimitri isn't too far behind those but had a comparatively poor weekend compared to those. Lower down, Dolan's win puts him up to 21, Adie's win sees him one place outside the top 32, Gilding is into the top 45 while Koltsov's final from nowhere gets him back into the top 90.

So, Matchplay. Mincashes put Gilding and Lukeman into the top 50, highest ranked players to miss out are King, van der Voort, Suljovic, White, Ross Smith and Whitlock. Lots of good new players coming in for the first time like Schindler, Razma and Rodriguez, I believe someone said it's the youngest average age ever. Let's look at each game and pick out some bets. Will go in draw order, overall scoring listed in brackets:

[1] Wright (94.40) v Razma (88.75) - Not really much of interest here. Wright is still elite and Razma's got the lowest scoring of anyone in the field, only making it in as the penultimate Pro Tour player. I can't see anything but a rout, Wright should win this 85% of the time so I think we can go 0.5u Wright 2/7, Madars might nick some legs but lacks the consistent scoring power to trouble Peter over a race to 10.

[16] Ratajski (93.44) v Bunting (91.66) - Ratajski held on to his seeding place (although has clearly been doing enough on the Pro Tour that he was safe anyway), and is playing better than many commentators think, and ought to have a small edge over Bunting, who's merely been OK, nothing more nothing less. Does seem like it will be a close game, I have Ratajski at about 55% and he is 4/5, so the odds makers are in agreement with me.

[8] Clayton (94.26) v Rodriguez (90.14) - Rowby held on to the last place on the final day, was down to whether Mensur could go incredibly deep, but he couldn't. Clayton's an incredibly tough draw though, and with four points in the scoring this is translating to an exact 80/20 edge for the major winner. Rowby's picking up a bit of form but with a best price of 10/3, we really can't bet this one.

[9] van den Bergh (93.05) v Rydz (91.25) - Dimitri might be under a bit of pressure here as he is defending title money, and an early exit could see him slip possibly outside the top 16. He's only seeded 18th in the worlds race. Rydz will be a dangerous opponent but one that Dimitri should have an edge over, I'm looking at 65/35. The market favours him ever so slightly more than that, but we can't consider taking the contrarian Callan punt.

[4] van Gerwen (95.58) v Lewis (91.51) - This could easily have been a major final at some point if their peaks had coincided, as is it's a first round matchup and Lewis will mostly be happy to be here, having been in no way a certainty before the last Pro Tour series. van Gerwen is back after surgery, so there's a bit of a question mark as to how well he's playing, but projects at between 75% and 80% in my models, so 2/5 on Spreadex might be worth a small stab, but they're the only bookie who's giving close to any sort of value.

[13] Cullen (92.23) v Heta (94.98) - Not a bad draw for Heta, at least in the first round as that's a brutal quarter with both MvG and Humphries there (had to laugh at one commenter saying that Cullen's been a top four player this year lol), while Cullen would have preferred a much better opponent. Cullen appears to be the only seed priced as an underdog, and nowhere near the level of underdog he should be as I can only see him taking this one 30% of the time, Damon is just that much better. 0.25u Heta 4/5 is fantastic value.

[5] Wade (91.40) v Lukeman (89.69) - Wade's actually got the lowest scoring of anyone in the seeds, even worse than de Sousa, and he's drawn one of only two players in the event scoring under 90 per turn in the in form Martin Lukeman, so this might not be the highest quality, but both players seem to make the most of the skill they have, so it could be nip and tuck. Wade should have a moderate edge, projecting at 55% but with a little bit of a consistency edge, Lukeman at 2/1 is kind of a tempter but with this being his first big major event, and playing someone who does what he does, only better, who also has course and distance and likes this sort of format, I can't go with it.

[12] Humphries (94.34) v Aspinall (92.59) - What a match up. Aspinall's playing well, Humphries is up there in the argument as being the best player in the world right now, four Euro Tours doesn't lie. Market is thinking 60/40 - that looks close enough to me, maybe Luke should be a tick or two shorter, but this is probably his first major with real expectation on him whereas Nathan's won one before, so perhaps it actually plays out a little tighter in real life.

[2] Price (93.54) v Schindler (92.27) - Price is maybe not quite at peak form, but is still clearly a very dangerous player, as is Schindler, who's getting close to getting that first tour win but still waiting to get over the line in one of them. Seems like they've played a few times of late but I could just be imagining it, this is the sort of game that Martin typically doesn't win, and only projects at 30%, and he's priced a bit longer than 2/1 which is right on the money.

[15] Chisnall (92.61) v Huybrechts (90.05) - Interesting one this, Chizzy's holding a top 16 spot primarily based on a worlds semi from two years ago, while Kim is getting into these which is what he needs to do to get back into the world's top 32. This is a tough ask for the Belgian who I'm thinking will take this one down slightly less than one time in three, Chizzy seems to be a best price of 1/2 so there's not enough differential there.

[7] de Sousa (91.54) v Clemens (90.27) - Jose's arguably the most out of form player in the whole tournament, not really doing much of anything in 2022 but keeping the scoring going enough to still get wins here and there, but like a few players here will drop solidly down the rankings once his Grand Slam win drops off later this season. Gabriel got another final recently but got destroyed by Dirk, not playing at his best still in my opinion, but still OK and maybe has a bit more than a 40% chance here. The market however has already adjusted enough to de Sousa's lack of form and we can't get better than 5/4 on Gabriel, which is close enough to correct that we can ignore the game.

[10] Cross (94.06) v Dobey (91.92) - This ought to be good. I've picked Cross to win the event as he's still playing at a very high level, just not getting results and this quarter isn't the most testing - only Price would be a big threat and you can see that Rob is outscoring him. Dobey might be the biggest challenge, Chris can play better than he is doing right now and an in-form Dobey is tricky to beat, but this looks like close to a bang on two to one favour line for Cross. If you've got money on the obscure books offering 8/13 I'd go with a small flier, but most of the big boys are offering at best 4/7 which isn't really of interest to me.

[3] Smith (93.73) v Gilding (93.37) - Is this going to be the tournament where Smith finally wins a big one? It's not a bad quarter he's got but this is a brutal draw with Gilding making another final this weekend (he really should have won it, but me having each way at 66/1 probably bokked him), and this does have a genuine sense of being too close to call. Peak Gilding is what we've got right now and peak Gilding is capable of making major semi finals, Smith's not playing badly either but this price is way off, 0.25u Gilding 5/2 is there at Coralbrokes, but with me seeing over 45% for Goldfinger, any price you can see at 2/1 or better is clearly worth a play.

[14] van Duijvenbode (94.14) v Searle (93.08) - A contender for tie of the round, Dirk added another tour title recently, while Searle was just one place outside the top 16 and is a major finalist within the last twelve months. Think the styles of play should complement each other and this should be an excellent match, I think Dirk has an edge but only a very small one, Searle at 6/5 is an accurate price.

[6] Anderson (94.65) v Gurney (90.28) - Gary's barely played this year and Edgar points out in a recent video that he is defending final money and lots more across the rest of the year. His level of play is still very good, it's just over not too much sample size, Gurney's played nearly 700 ranked legs this season while Gary's under 300. I do think that this is a good spot to bet Ando, 0.25u Anderson 4/6, better is available on Spreadex, my projections give it at over 80% for Ando, let's say that's a sample size aberration and it's not that much - even 70% would be a simple play at that price. Daryl's only just scoring over 90, and I've got to feel that Gary is rested enough and will be keyed in knowing this is an important tournament.

[11] Noppert (92.21) v Dolan (90.95) - Final game and we've got the most recent major champion against the most recent Pro Tour champion, Dolan won the last Pro Tour while Noppert won one two days earlier so both will be confident in their games. Like his compatriot in the previous game, maybe he's not playing as well as he was, say, nine months ago, but still looks to have more than 40% chances, so I can take a small shot, 0.1u Dolan 2/1, just taking it small as the edge isn't as big as others and I think my model is starting to underrate Noppert a little bit.

Tuesday, 5 July 2022

Humphries winning everything

Jesus christ, Humphries looks in incredible form right now. Another 25 grand in the bank putting him in a potentially extremely winnable match against Gary Anderson at the Matchplay as things stand, although the spots just below him are incredibly tight, so a bad set of Pro Tours could still see a bunch of things change. Breakout weekend for Rowby as well, thankfully he didn't actually win as he's one of the few players still in our circle of betting trust (but for how much longer), as of right now he's less than 500 quid out of the Matchplay so a good weekend (I say weekend, it's now four events) and he can get in. It's extremely tight from Gilding in 14th down to about Williams in 22nd with less than five grand separating the lot. Would think that Clemens will be fine, there's enough of a buffer that while you could see one, maybe two players passing him, four seems incredibly unlikely especially given that, at the last check, there are not too many players giving the event a miss.

New FRH rankings:

1 Peter Wright
2 Gerwyn Price
3 Michael Smith
4 Michael van Gerwen
5 James Wade
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries (UP 1)
8 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
9 Danny Noppert
10 Jose de Sousa
11 Ryan Searle (UP 1)
12 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
13 Joe Cullen
14 Damon Heta (UP 3)
15 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 1)
16 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
17 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Dave Chisnall
20 Callan Rydz

Heta through to Aspinall are separated by less than 2k, so Damon's quarter, along with nobody else doing a great deal, gets him up to what is surely a new high. Bunting's semi gets him up to the last man out of the rankings, although he is still some way off Rydz. White's quarter sees him hold a top 30 spot, he'd be in there anyway but by a bit more than 8 points as of right now, while Rowby hits the top 40. Surprise semi finalist Razma is only a couple of places further back, while Martin Lukeman and Luke Woodhouse, after final day runs, are not far off the top 50.

So I said I'd rant about the World Cup. I think if we saw anything, it is that the tournament desperately needs a shake up. There's so much disparity between the top nations and everyone else in this format - I was able to hit a twelve-fold on round one with very little trouble. All the seeds made the quarter finals, and it was only Australia's run which prevented it from being complete chalk - Heta likely being underrated being the only reason they weren't the higher seed than Belgium, then the matches with England and Wales were in fair upsets.

But how to reform it? One thing I've suggested before is to expand - if you move to 36 or 40 teams and have a play in round between the weakest teams, you at least have a chance to eliminate the complete garbage (Italy, I'm looking in your direction) and allow a few more teams to enter. That, or seed 16 teams - give teams ranked 9-16 a one round bye, and teams 1-8 a two round bye. 17-32 enter at the opening stage, winners play 9-16, winners of those play 1-8. Looking at who might have got those extra seeds, I would guess that Poland, Ireland, Czech Republic, Canada, Austria and Spain would get one for sure, then it's a case of which two you get from the teams which have one good player and then someone unranked. Portugal, Latvia, Lithuania and South Africa would be those included, although you would think with de Sousa's presence, it'd win any tiebreakers. Still, a lot can change between now and next year, maybe Gates/Lauby/Baggish can win or re-win their card and van Dongen can pick up form. Maybe we see someone join one of the Nordic/Baltic country representatives and nick a card. Who knows. Something needs doing though - and I have zero interest in "all pairs" or suggestions like that.

Sunday, 3 July 2022

Trier day 3

More small gains yesterday, beats losses, just keep ticking over. Eight matches going this afternoon, lots of seeds going out yesterday so the tournament is wide open (watch Humphries bink a fourth):

Rodriguez/Clemens - Market thinks this is too close to call. Are they catching up on Rowby, or just not rating Clemens? It seems fine to me, I can't split them either.

Aspinall/Williams - Scott moves on again to face Aspinall, who did for one of our tips yesterday, think the market is catching up to Scott a little bit (especially after his Pro Tour win) but still correctly values Aspinall as a solid player, maybe the line should be slightly tighter than it is, the Williams line looks perfect but Nathan's too short with the vig. Nothing here regardless.

Plaisier/Razma - Wesley crushed de Sousa while Razma overcame Schindler and the German crowd, and it's a big opportunity for both now. Wesley's the favourite and this seems real close to a bet for me. Unibet have it some decimal value that's not converting right the pair, if you can get that then I think it's just about worth it, I have Wesley at just shy of 60%. The 4/5, 8/11 he's at in most larger books isn't quite worth the punt to me.

Cross/Woodhouse - Luke finally moves through to a final day after a big break (maybe ever? Context of tweets I've seen is ambiguous), and gets a tough draw in Cross, Luke's maybe got slightly more chances than the market suggests - 5/2 is available in a few places and I'm estimating his chances at 35%, again like the above it's not quite enough to go against Rob in this spot. Weird spot where Cross dodged a bullet and maybe it's a name on the trophy moment.

Lukeman/Bunting - Martin swept aside a surprisingly under par Searle, Stephen needed every leg and a missed match dart from Bialecki to advance. Looks to me like Bunting should have a moderate edge at not quite 60%, he's 8/11, there really is no value whatsoever today by the looks of things.

Heta/van den Bergh - Damon took advantage of a few missed doubles from Rydz while van den Bergh looked amazing with a 110 average against Hempel who really stood no chance. I think this is our first bet, 0.25u Heta 6/5 available on Hills and VC, I have Damon at 57% which is more than enough to go at a slight odds against price, this is maybe a bit dangerous given Dimitri's performance yesterday and that his two recent tournaments are unranked and hence not in my data, so maybe I underestimate him a fair bit, but it's hard to pick against Damon at odds against against most players.

Humphries/Wenig - Luke was given a decent test by Menzies while Lukas had a checkout extravaganza with a come from behind win against Chris Dobey. I think the run ends here, that sort of finishing seems unsustainable, I'm actually half tempted to take the 1/5 on Luke as this looks 90/10 to me.

White/de Zwaan - Two final leg winners here, Ian taking advantage of uncharacteristic missed doubling from Cullen while Jeffrey dodged a match dart coming from 5-3 down to van Duijvenbode. Big game for both as they both look to rebuild after a couple of lean years, de Zwaan in particular desperately needs to get money on the board as he is going to need the worlds to save his tour card. Ian's a small favourite in the market, line looks spot on.

So just the one bet - if you're on the DvdB hype train then it's understandable if you don't want to play it, but I'm on the Heta hype train so let's go.

Saturday, 2 July 2022

Trier day 2 evening

Let's continue...

Humphries/Menzies - Luke's one of the toughest outs on the circuit now and is going to be a real test for Menzies, who managed a ton average in a good win over Zonneveld yesterday, this is priced at shorter than 1/3 for Luke, and the line looks just about perfect.

Clayton/Williams - Let's see what Scott, who needed to survive a comeback attempt from Szaganski yesterday, can do against an elite level talent in Jonny Clayton. Market is similar to the above game, think it maybe should be slightly closer, but arguing about a line being 7/2 when I have the match 75/25 is meh.

Gurney/Clemens - Clemens got a bye yesterday, as did Gurney for all intents and purposes as he was promoted into the seeds, so no real clue about how they're playing in terms of very short term form. Looks too close to call for me, maybe Daryl has a very slight edge, 11/8 isn't quite enough to bet Clemens though, even with the German crowd in play.

Price/Rodriguez - Rowby's playing fantastic in 2022 and got the notable scalp of Noppert in round one, now comes up against probably the biggest name in the field given the withdrawals. Another one that's priced 75/25, looks fine to me, maybe Rowby's a tick better than that but that's it. Maybe we get a repeat of the World Cup antics?

Cullen/White - This would be a fantastic game 2-3 years ago, what now though? Cullen is doing Cullen things, White cruised against Murnan, and the market gives him less than a one in three shot. That's maybe slightly harsh, I'd have gone 7/4 instead of 11/5, small differences though.

Schindler/Razma - Martin will look to solidify a finals place here, a win should be enough I would think if he's not there already (he's on the same amount as Sedlacek who someone called in already so I don't know), Razma should be a good test after he disposed of an indifferent Horvat 6-3. Looks 2-1 in favour of Schindler, we can get 4/7 so it's not enough.

van den Bergh/Hempel - Florian won a pretty forgettable game against Brooks, and it's hard to plot a path to victory against Dimitri off of back to back World Series wins. I've got Dimitri up at 80% for this one such is the level of difference in form, and he's 1/5. That World Championship match seems a long way away, doesn't it?

van Duijvenbode/de Zwaan - An all Dutch match to finish off, as we get de Zwaan, who got a bye, against van Duijvenbode, who was playing well on home soil last weekend. Dirk's a very short favourite, but hey, I'm seeing 75/25, so I'll allow it.

Back tomorrow for round three, but will not be available to do anything for the quarters I think. Maybe I project all perms in advance and post up something on my phone.

Trier day 2 afternoon

OK yesterday, Rowby bailing us out of losing the Zonneveld flip and then Lennon surprisingly losing to Wenig, as time is short I'll do the afternoon session now and the evening session in a new post:

Ratajski/Woodhouse - Luke was the beneficiary of a bye and now comes in as a longer than 2/1 dog against back to underrated Ratajski. This seems a little bit unfair on Luke, who's performing pretty solidly and just missing out on some wins a fair few times. Projection actually gives Woodhouse 41%, so this is tempting, but there is a big consistency differential, without a read from a first round game I think there's enough uncertainty that I can make a tight no play in this one.

Cross/Wilson - Wilson got through a bit of a plodding game against Engstrom 6-3 and will need to up his game significantly to stand a chance against another underrated player in Cross. Rob comes in at 1/4 and that is exactly where I think it should be, so no play again.

Aspinall/Wattimena - Nathan will look to move through to round three, and he's up against Jermaine who had no trouble with Ross Montgomery, dropping just the one leg. Market is strongly in favour of Aspinall, around 75/25, which is underrating Jermaine somewhat - 0.1u Wattimena 11/4, he seems above 35% in my projections so it's worth a shot.

Bunting/Bialecki - Another game that's similarly priced - Bunting is doing alright for himself this season and comes in against the young sensation Bialecki, who took out Mervyn King in a game with a few missed doubles all over the place. The price is the same as the match above, but this time it feels fair, Sebastian certainly isn't drawing dead but has some chances, albeit only about one in four.

Heta/Rydz - Two players within the FRH top 20 face off in the afternoon, Heta's another player that's hugely underrated still despite having just won the World Cup, and Rydz is sticking around just in the top 20 and added another grand yesterday with a solid display against Worsley, getting a nice 125 out all on the bull. Looks about two to one in favour of Damon for me, he's a little bit longer than that but nowhere near enough to consider a bet.

Searle/Lukeman - Good matchup this, Searle was making big breakthroughs late in 2021, but has been a little bit quiet this year, whereas Martin was making small progress late in 2021 but 2022 has been the breakthrough year, and was given a decent test by John Michael yesterday but came through in ten legs. Market thinks Searle a little bit more than two in three, that looks close enough to right, I've got it 70/30 in favour of Ryan, Lukeman's got some good results but statistically isn't quite at the levels you might think.

de Sousa/Plaisier - Jose could do with a win here as he's lacked some results of late, he'll face Plaisier who eliminated Jamie Hughes in a good standard back and forth game, not a bad opponent for Wesley who'll look to add more money to increase his European Championship chances, which with some future associate qualifiers already in the books, he kind of needs to do now. Another 2-1 game favouriting the seed, I think I can take another small flier here, 0.1u Plaisier 7/4, I'm seeing well over 40%, good first round performance, playing with confidence, this is a bit similar to the Woodhouse non-punt except all the intangibles are the other way around.

Dobey/Wenig - Lukas was probably the surprise of round one with his win over Steve Lennon, and now faces Chris Dobey, another tough opponent. Seems strongly in favour of Chris this one, I'd go 2/9 if I was setting the book, he's a little bit longer than that at 2/7, it's not really inspiring enough to take a shot though.

Evening session very shortly.