Thursday 15 December 2022

Thursday - Sunday bet thoughts

Will be putting out the first four days worth of first round bets and thoughts, as I'm at the Friday evening session and will be away from the master computer for most of it, not back until really late Saturday so may need to do a fair bit of catchup on the Sunday morning. Will also put up conditional thoughts about the second round games in a separate post. So let's go:

Mansell/Robb - Looks like the line is slanted 60/40 in favour of Mickey here. This feels like it's in the right ballpark - if Robb had have played the World Masters, we might have had a better idea of where he's at, but I doubt that any data would have swung things too much one way or the other. Certainly nothing from appearances in the Super Series that makes me want to swing in the favour of Robb, if anything it'd probably make me want to swing towards Mansell. No bet here.

Barry/Sampson - There's no way we can contemplate a bet on Sampson here. We just don't know enough about him, and what we do know is not brilliant. Barry should be completely comfortable, I'm not sure if I want to chase tiny margins at 1/10. That's probably the right play given Barry's pretty good, but I won't take the shot.

Wattimena/Rafferty - An actual game with data! The market is favouring Jermaine around the same amount it's favouring Mansell. Now year long, this doesn't look right, I'm actually favouring Nathan in this one, but Jermaine's come on very strong over recent times. That said, if I filter down to, say, the start of October onwards, which should swing things around, it actually pushes Nathan's win chances up even more! That's over a 200 leg sample for both, the scoring overall is basically identical, although Jermaine is hyper consistent and Nathan isn't. Still makes me think flip. As such, 0.25u Rafferty 6/4

Soutar/Cuming - Discussed in the build up that Mal doesn't look too great, the difference between here and Sampson is that we have some data, and he's beaten a better calibre of player to get here. As such, he's probably not drawing completely dead, but we're not going to think about touching him. Soutar's 1/6 though, he's getting better, but I find it hard to believe that that is value to be honest.

Krcmar/Suzuki - Another fairly big odds on matchup here. Krcmar obviously favoured. I find it hard to believe that taking Toru at just the right side of 4/1 can be correct given the averages he was putting up at the Asian Championship as well as elsewhere historically, but can we punt on Boris? Is there enough of a combination of weirdly underperforming on TV, him simply having a bad day or Suzuki having the game of his life to get up to something around any of them happening maybe 10-12% of the time to make 2/9 not look safe? I want to say maybe? Doesn't seem like the right game to chase big odds on prices.

Lewis/Larsson - I think we can start to bet this one though, because we've got enough data on Larsson to know that this one should be safe. He's improved, but the scoring just isn't there to really be able to handle Lewis over a three set matchup. I'm thinking he takes this 85% of the time, we can get better pricing than that and this feels like enough of a reliable edge to push, so 0.5u Lewis 1/4

Rodriguez/Ilagan - Market's saying about 75/25 in favour of Rowby here. This kind of feels right - we don't have a massive amount of data on Lourence (oh to have the Asian Tour back, thankfully that'll be soon), but this just feels like a game where Rowby will be too solid and should be reasonably safe. Lourence isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination, but I think this is going to need some combination of him playing close to his best and Rowby having somewhat of an off day. I'm not sure it happens enough of the time to consider taking the underdog, but it probably does enough that we can't lump on Rodriguez either.

O'Connor/Greaves - This is by far the toughest one to call, for reasons indicated in the write-up. We just don't know how well Beau's game will translate to playing against better opposition than her. I've just had a quick look at the World Masters - just looking at her games from the last sixteen onwards, she won about half her legs in seven or more visits. That just isn't going to cut it against someone with the quality of Willie, he'll clean those up in eighteen or better far, far too often, probably push her average up several points from what she's been doing in the women's game, and confuse the heck out of the casual fan and/or the Sky comms box. I'm torn between thinking whether O'Connor at just the wrong side of 1/2 is great value and that the Greaves hype is being overvalued, or if I'm overestimating the adjustments that need to be made and the line is fair. I'll err on the side of caution and not throw out a bet, but gun to head I'd be taking O'Connor.

Brown/Hempel - This one seems easier to analyse as we've got data on them both in an all card holder encounter. Brown's had the results, but Hempel's been playing the slightly better darts, particularly more recently. But it's not by much at all, and the line leaning 55/45 in favour of the German seems perfectly reasonable and we've got no reason to try to create any sort of narrative that says the match will be anything other than tight, as that's what it will be.

Lukeman/Yamamoto - Seems reasonably simple to look at this one, the Japanese guy just isn't going to score enough, but Martin's not at the elite level in terms of scoring that we can look at odds of worse than 1/8 and think that's going to be completely safe. Nothing doing here.

Whitlock/Perez - Looks the same as the above, and the lines are the same. This time though, Whitlock's slightly better than Lukeman, and Perez should be significantly better than Yamamoto is. I've got really, really limited data on Perez, but it's pointing out that he might have around a 15% shot, and as detailed in the preview, that might be a slight underestimate. That said, how much might it be underestimating? The annoying thing is he's playing Whitlock, who's still good, chuck in a lot of the other Pro Tour qualifiers and I'd probably take a chance on Perez here. Maybe I'll just pick him +2.5 or something for entertainment value.

Gawlas/Burnett - This one looks like it will be really tight - year long, Gawlas is slightly favoured, but take smaller and smaller samples and it edges Burnett's win chances up as he rounded into form, from September onwards it's more like 2-1 in favour of Richie, although that's only looking at about 50 or so legs a piece. Burnett's 4/5, I think this one comes down to if you want to go for larger samples or current form. If the former, you'd look to the Czech, if the latter, the Welshman. I feel the latter ought to be the correct play if we have to pick a side, especially when you factor in big stage experience and probably a favourable crowd, but there isn't quite enough on either end to recommend a play.

Meikle/Ashton - I think this one's pretty safe to look at betting. Lisa, when we've seen her, just isn't scoring heavily enough to really trouble someone of Meikle's calibre over a first to three sets match. Sure, she might have a little bit of a spell and win a set, but Ryan should be way, way too strong over the course of the whole match. Coralbrokes offer a line which I think is a good play, 0.5u Meikle 2/7, but wouldn't hate 1/4 in other places either.

Menzies/Portela - Similar sort of line here. Differences are that Diogo looks to be the better player than Ashton by several points, while Menzies looks to be playing ever so slightly better than Meikle is. That reduction in relative standards of play is enough for me to think no bet, Portela's got chances but not really enough to be jumping all over a bit better than 3/1, and I'm not sure Menzies is consistent enough to be thinking 2/7 is a great play either.

Rock/Justicia - Rock's good, but he's not 1/10 is a great bet good. That line is fair, Jose isn't a complete no-hoper, albeit clearly outclassed in this one.

Razma/Jiwa - Yet another short priced favourite in this one. I'm not sure to think here - Prakash is certainly extremely experienced and is no mug, and for all the improvements Madars has made in the last year or two, the scoring is not massive, so I'm thinking that if there is value in this one, it might be in looking at Jiwa at the 4/1 that's available. Razma should win, but maybe it's more only 70-75% of the time realistically? I'm just scanning the Super Series results, and yeah, what the hell, I think there's enough there for a flyer. 0.1u Jiwa 4/1

Sedlacek/Smith - This is one of the highlights of the round, and it's a real shame that one of these needs to go out as I'd love to see either of them against a seed. Market can't really separate the two, Sedlacek is the player that we have a lot more data on and that points to him having played the better stuff, but the data on Raymond seems to be underselling him a fair bit, and classing this one as too close to call seems entirely appropriate.

Woodhouse/Omelchenko - 1/16 LOL, that might even be value

de Decker/Smith - This is all about which de Decker shows up. If his best game shows up, this is trivial, the year long projections say 80/20, but as we have pointed out in the previews, Mike is hugely volatile and that will overestimate him. That said, also as pointed out, Mike is scoring significantly heavier than Jeff is, even when losing. 0.25u de Decker 8/11 on BetVictor looks like a great play, 4/6 and probably 8/13 are also solid if you don't have that bookie.

Williams/Joyce - Another all card holder clash which the market is having trouble picking a winner in, they're leaning Joyce, and that seems just about correct to me. He's scoring a little bit better, is slightly more inconsistent so maybe draw back the 59% I'm seeing by a percent or so, 5/6 appears well within the realms of where I would expect the line to be.

Campbell/Baggish - Should be a fun one to close out the Sunday evening, at least for round one. Campbell's the better player, there's no real argument to say that Danny should be favoured here. I'd call this about 70/30 in favour of Matt, and the line is 8/15, so there's tiny value, but it's not enough to recommend a play. It's in the correct ballpark.

Back a little later with round two thoughts for the early matchups.

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