Sunday 18 December 2022

Monday/Tuesday betting thoughts

We've only got the one session on Tuesday, so let's go through Monday and Tuesday at the same time:

Gilding/Owen - Robert's got some game and isn't completely dead, but this seems like a bit of a one-sided matchup, don't think he's got as much as 25% chances, might be nearer 20% actually, so with Gilding at 1/3 and Owen shorter than 3/1, we'd be looking at the favourite if anyone, but the line's accurate enough.

Jansen/Nebrida - This one's going to come down to how well Nebrida adapts to the big stage. We've seen already that Ilagan's got a win, and Perez should have got a win, and is Nebrida much worse than these two? Probably not, and Jansen seems significantly worse than either Rodriguez or Whitlock. Coralbrokes are offering the best price here, 0.1u Nebrida 27/10, if we had a bit more data I might be a bit more confident, but this seems out of line and he should likely be at worst 2/1. It's Jansen's first time on the stage as well.

Zonneveld/Williams - Niels is the better player here, the question is whether the pressure on him to win to retain his card will be too much. Looks 70/30 to me, so the 4/7 we can get in a couple of places is close to a bet, but it's not quite enough given that Williams is likely going to be playing more freely.

de Sousa/Whitlock - Simon's going to need to up his game from round one here by a fair few ticks against de Sousa, who's definitely been playing a bit better than he was in the early stages of the year. Seems right between Whitlock having a one in three and a 40% chance, so with Jose generally being priced at 4/6, we're not really interested, if we needed to bet it wouldn't be on Whitlock.

Nentjes/Gates - Bookies have this moderately close, with Geert around a 60/40 favourite. That doesn't seem unreasonable, Nentjes has been performing at a slightly better over a much larger sample than Gates has, but Leonard's someone I think would replicate what he's done this year over that larger sample, so I'm happy enough to leave this one alone.

Edhouse/Cameron - Same scenario again here, the Pro Tour qualifier comes in as a 60/40 favourite against the North American qualifier. Difference here is that Cameron's a little bit below what we're seeing from Ritchie, so the line might favour taking the favourite. I'm not sure I have quite enough confidence to recommend taking Ritchie at 8/13 given that Cameron's certainly not bad and has some good televised results, but I don't hate the play.

Beaton/van Trijp - Steve's come in as a better than 2/1 favourite against the young Dutchman, which I think is just about right. Danny's had some successes, but I think there's enough difference in quality that he only wins about 30% of the time. Another one where the line appears accurate and we can ignore the match from a betting standpoint.

Price/Woodhouse - Gerwyn's really short, which is what we'd expect, but he might be slightly too short here. Luke's a good player who'd got results against some big names, but can he do it over a first to three set race? Maybe about one time in five looking at projections, so 6/1 isn't quite long enough to go for a bet, but definitely do not put the Welshman in any accumulators.

Williams/Bialecki - Looking forward to this one, Sebastian should ask questions but Jim's a fair bit better. Maybe 1/2 is tiny value, I'd have set the line at 2/5, he should just be too consistent and get the legs required, although it wouldn't surprise me if Bialecki has a spell and can nick a set or maybe force us the distance - where Jim's experience would probably tell.

Hughes/Hendriks - Jamie is the far superior player in this one, scoring a clear three points better per season and projecting at around 85%. And we can get better than 1/3? We'll have some of that please, 0.5u Hughes 4/11 on Coralbrokes and VC, 1/3 also looks good.

Evans/Sherrock - I can't envisage taking Fallon to win this one (as an aside, listening to some of the Weekly Dartscast previews on the way down to Ally Pally, it says it all when she said she was prioritising exhibitions over the World Masters), Ricky ought to be really safe, but with recent results I don't want to say to take 3/10. There's enough ways this one can go wrong.

van Barneveld/Meikle - Ryan's very live in this one. Barney's had some good results in the last couple of months, and is the better player, but it's not by that much, but do I want to take 19/10 on Ryan? It's real close, I'm seeing him at 40% basically. If the money comes in on Barney and Meikle drifts beyond 2/1 I'd start thinking about it. Would take 5/2 without too much thought.

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