Wednesday 21 December 2022

Wednesday evening thoughts

King/Baggish is an interesting one to call given Mervyn's complete lack of form this season, Danny definitely seems live at around a 40% shot season long, which gradually increases as you get smaller and smaller samples. Is 13/10 worth pulling the trigger? I'd probably need a bit more than a 50% chance to go with that line, maybe closer to 55%. We don't really have that on longer samples, even factoring in that Danny is probably a better stage than floor player. Might be one to go five sets.

Clemens/O'Connor seems too close to call. Looks like Willie has been doing his best work at the start and end of the season, Clemens doing better in the middle, but it's not deviating a great amount from 50/50. Gabriel's only slightly odds against which is the way I would go if forced, but we can only see 11/10 at best, would need nearer to 11/8 to even start to think about it.

van Gerwen/Williams isn't really that interesting a game, Lewy looked alright in round one, but he's not going to be able to threaten MvG, with him having less than an 8% chance from the projections I've got. Would need a lot more than 14/1 to think about it, 1/16 on van Gerwen is hardly worth it either.

Bunting/Gates is slanted severely in favour of Bunting in the market, and my first thought is that it looked unreasonable, until I ran the numbers - Bunting's up at around 85%. There is a big difference in consistency, but even if we pushed Gates up 10% in account of that, we can only see 4/1, a little bit longer in some places, which isn't enough. We're definitely not interested in Bunting at 1/5 either.

Back later this evening for Thursday/Friday when we get into the remaining second round games.

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