Thursday, 15 December 2022

Early round two matches

As mentioned, I'm going to be away for the first few days, so here's thoughts on where the lines ought to be at:

Wright v Mansell/Robb - Obviously Peter should be a fairly big favourite here. Maybe not prohibitive, vig free line against Mansell is probably around the 2/9 mark. If it was Robb, then maybe it should be a little bit shorter, but if Robb does some through then it's entirely possible that we have him underrated unless Mansell completely collapses. Doubt we see any value in this one.

Huybrechts v Barry/Sampson - These two (assuming Keane wins) seem incredibly well matched up. If anyone deviates too much from even money, take them.

Smith v Wattimena/Rafferty - We've got enough data that we can look at both of them. Smith should probably be about 1/5 against Wattimena, maybe slightly longer taking into account form, and probably about the same against Nathan. Maybe there might be an underdog play here, but it kind of seems unlikely.

Gurney v Soutar/Cuming - Think Gurney should be a modest favourite in this one. Call it about 4/6, taking into account that Soutar's improved a bit over the last couple of months. Maybe with Daryl not doing a huge amount this season and with Soots doing alright, he might be undervalued, but to get the right sort of price he'd need to be really close to even money, so I'm thinking that's unlikely. It probably would lean towards being a Gurney bet if it does go one way or another.

van den Bergh v Rodriguez/Ilagan - Dimitri seems a lot better than Rowby does, I would hazard a guess at 1/3 being the correct line. Maybe if Rowby plays impressively, the line ends up being a bit closer and we can look at a play on DvdB.

Heta v Lewis/Larsson - Got to think this'll be Adie, and if it is, Heta should be favoured pretty strongly. I'd put the line at a bit shorter than 1/2, but with Heta facing Lewis and having TV troubles, I guess that the line will be nearer than that, but not so much so that we'll be looking to play it.

Aspinall v Krcmar/Suzuki - Nathan actually only projects as a small favourite if he were to face Boris, perhaps 8/11. That seems like it's probably a little long given Nathan playing better in the latter stages of the year, but this might well be the sort of game where Krcmar is undervalued. If he looks comfortable enough on the TV in round one, then getting north of 2/1 might be the sort of range where we can take a flyer.

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