Thursday 29 December 2022

Q4 R4

Bullet dodged earlier today, but we're back to being up as a result of Smith messing things up, we'll take it.

Dirk's now going to face MvG, who played fantastically against an inspired Suljovic and has reiterated his position as the man to beat. Dirk's come through two back and forth games which has possibly taken a fair chunk out of him. That said, he's incredibly live in this one - he's pushed his scoring up to a level where the projections I have think he will take this 40% of the time. That seems like a bold figure, but that's how well he's been playing this season, year long scoring as of right now only has him behind MvG, Heta and Price, and that's it - those last two being only by less than a tenth of a point - although van Gerwen's well over a point ahead of all of them. If we say that it seems optimistic, and it's really 35%, then this still looks like it is worth a small play given the price available on 365 - 0.1u van Duijvenbode 3/1.

Cross on the other hand had few troubles against King, Mervyn having the one good set but otherwise not really being close to Rob. He'll play Dobey, who took advantage of Ando not taking the shot he had to go 2-0 up in sets and cleaned things up to solidify a top 20 FRH position. Cross continues to be underrated in this one in places - we can get 4/6 in a couple of places, which seems very close to a play. I'm seeing him at just a shade under a two in three chance. If we get movement that makes Cross longer than 4/6, then I'd go with it, it's that close. 8/11 I'd go with. I'm probably just going to throw out an ask of something like 1.7 on the exchange and see if it gets matched.

Will be back tomorrow with Smith/Cullen and Bunting/whoever thoughts.

No comments:

Post a Comment