Friday 30 December 2022

Q2 R4


That second set was the killer. Don't miss all those doubles in legs 2/3, and it's 2-0 at the second break and it leaves Clayton with way, way too much to do. I did put some insurance on Clayton after set one, but it's not the sort of ending we wanted. Oh well, we still have a Humphries futures ticket alive, and it's that section of the draw we're going to look at now.

Smith/Cullen first, Michael can consider himself really lucky to have come through his match with Schindler after not being tested by Rafferty in the slightest, while Joe was pushed slightly by Evans but never really felt like he was in trouble, then Heta just continued his awful head to head matchup with Cullen coming through incredibly comfortably. The line looks fine to me. I'm getting Michael as a two to one favourite, he is typically 1/2, 4/9 in most places which seems correct. Would take a ton of money on Cullen to make me consider anything in this one.

Humphries/Bunting is the last round of sixteen game, Luke was cruising against van der Voort but then let the veteran Dutchman right back in to the game - fair play to Vincent for doing so, but Humphries pulled himself together in the deciding set and took that one in three straight legs, this being his second deciding set win after Hempel made things tricky in the opener. Bunting took out Chizzy in maybe the highest quality game of the round, checking things out like a pro as Dave was averaging near 102 in the legs he lost, this comes after Stephen came through a potential tricky matchup with Leonard Gates. Market appears the same in this one, with Luke being favoured by a 2-1 margin, maybe in this one I have it a little tighter, I've got Bunting as having just under a 40% shot to pull out the upset. 7/4 seems pretty easily available, but it's only the tiniest of tiny value, so I'm not going to recommend the play.

In terms of line moves from what I've already posted, money piles in on MvG, so while I took Dirk at 3/1, you can now get 7/2 fairly easily and even better than 4's on the exchanges, so if you waited, don't wait any longer, while Clemens is now close enough with Soutar that I'm going to take a small stab based on what I posted a couple of days ago, 0.1u Clemens 10/11, we've had enough movement to take the small shot.

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