Wednesday 28 December 2022

Q1 R4

An awful lot of LOL in today's session, Noppert's surely played himself out of the Premier League, Ando will thankfully have done the same, Searle's collapse was remarkable. So for the first quarter, what do we have:

Price against de Sousa appears fairly straightforward to call. Price took what looked like a potentially tricky third round tie against Barney and made it look incredibly easy, while de Sousa needed to come back from the brink again and was let back into the match for the second time in a row. Jose isn't completely dead, I'd give him maybe a 30% shot, which appears exactly where the line is at with him being priced at 5/2 or slightly shorter from the small amount of bookies which have priced it up already. I severely doubt we're going to get any sort of line where we can look to punt.

Soutar against Clemens is one that looks like it should be fairly close, but I'm projecting the German as being slightly better, winning this one with something like a 60/40 clip. Clemens has looked the best he's done all season in this tournament, so I think that easily counters out the concept that Soutar is playing his best stuff in the last few months, which appears to be true. There's not many lines up yet, but it seems like the market is also settling on Gabriel being the favourite, although not quite so large as we have, the best price I'm seeing is 4/5. This looks like a facsimile of the Rock situation - we'd need closer to evens to go with it, 10/11 I'd probably go with a play. Might just go with a small double just to keep some interest in those two games, but won't recommend anything official at this point in time.

I may have a look at the one game in the second quarter that'll be finalised later this evening, but I will probably wait until the morning to do so once lines have properly come through.

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